announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom and paul sweeney.

>> neither party seems to want to take on deficits at all. announcer: with lisa mateo and michael barr. the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio. tom: good morning. lisa in moments with the bloomberg business update. good morning around the world, important guests in this hour. i was going to do forget about it, iconic name in american retailing, nordstrom's, will finally go private. we welcome you on youtube.

on your commute at home, bloomberg radio, good morning, and when you get to the office, youtube, work from home, cook from home, you watch us on youtube at home. paul: we will bring you all the market action. s&p futures off but the nasdaq is up. michael: dollar strength -- tom cole and dollar strength. euro-dollar. the real headline, market up 2.25% on the 10 year yield. where is the market right now? juul almost 7% -- paul: almost 7%. i cannot get out of my 3% mortgage and go get a new mortgage at 7%.

tom: good morning to all of you. we do the bloomberg business flash from the interactive brokers studio. we thank them for that. lisa mateo, good morning. lisa: nasdaq futures little changed up about 12 points. dow futures down 210 points. s&p futures down 12 points. the yield on the 10 year 4.55%, up three basis points. brent crude $72 a barrel. spot gold lower. over to the bloomberg dollar spot index, up .3%. the japanese yen down .5% against the dollar. the euro weaker. the british pound weaker. bitcoin down at just over $94,000. tom: you did that for

television. we never would have quoted that on radio. lisa: we will get to the companies making news. nordstrom going private, all cash transaction. nordstrom shares down more than 1%. xerox has agreed to buy lexmark. xerox shares up 8%. honda and nissan have agreed to start talks for a holding company. they plan to list by august 2026. honda planning to buy back shares. , under and nissan both up. that is your -- honda and nissan both up. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: thrilled to get smarter with andrew, head of applied equity advisors at morgan stanley. andrew will give you the courage

to participate in the market. how do we get to a third double digit bull market year? >> i think you have a combination of lower rates. $7 trillion sitting in money markets that will search for a new home, or some of it will. , and progrowth policies. that is how you could get to a double-digit year for the equity markets. tom: up 14%. do the security analysts get you to a double-digit growth ye ar? andrew: i have been optimistic the last couple of years. it is not about valuation. it is about the direction of the change. i talk to younger investors all

the time, be wary of pure valuation tools as a methodology to evaluate the stock market or if a stock is cheap or expensive because sometimes analysts do not get the estimate right. the last couple of years, returns have been stronger-than-expected. so far, i have seen a lot of predictions that earnings are too strong for next year. i have not seen those numbers come down yet. that falls into the positive camp. tom: andrew slimmon says you have to participate. paul: go to cash! not going to work. we have the fed cutting rates. it looks like in 2025 at a slower pace than the market had been anticipating. how does that impact your view of the equity markets? andrew: i think this is good news. let me articulate why. what i have been worried about,

if you look at what work since july with the fed said they will start to cut rates, what has worked in the market is the low-quality what i would call junk growth stocks. high revenue estimates but very little earnings. very high multiples. the more risk you have taken in the last six months, the better you have done. that scares me because that screams of the year 2021. we know what happened in 2022 market fell apart. to the extent i think the fed has encouraged that risk-taking by saying we are going to cut rates, if they say we are going to go slower, good, rates going up, that takes the heat out of the bubble that i think is occurring. i think that is healthy for the stock market. in many ways, it might extend

the bull market longer than just 2025. tom: andrew slimmon with us. he is with morgan stanley. we welcome all of you across the nation. if you are working, computing, apple card play, sirius xm, bloomberg television worldwide, youtube, all of our distribution on youtube. subscribe to bloomberg podcasts. it is the only way to observe lisa mateo. it is a constructive episode, to say the least. last week, you and i read it free cash flow and a shareholder yield epic. it was iconic then. how do you study free cash flow in this great bull market? andrew: i hear a lot of people, and shows like this and talk about how you have to have expansion beyond the mag seven and how it is dangerous these

stocks are very high weight in the s&p. i certainly agree with that. if i look at what has worked from a factor standpoint, companies buying back stocks, in general outperformed. that is the big boys. your question about cash flow, i say, what companies generate a lot of cash flow? some of the best are these really big companies. i think one of the most consensus trades for next year is the market is going to expand beyond the mag seven. i think there are plenty of good ideas beyond mag seven. you have to face the reality these companies are buying back stocks. that is positive. that is a big difference to 1999-2000. tom: thank you so much, andrew slimmon with us from morgan stanley on courage to stay in the market. a special treat on this monday.

a frigid monday. warm and cozy, the best hockey player at bloomberg lp among 27,000 people, guard for the new york rangers, scarlet fu comes in after a lot of coverage this morning. i have been dying to get you in here to talk viscerally about what we are going to see next year from beijing over to taiwan , and all the heritage of the family as well. i know you are studying this. you are studying it all the time. we have a new president. what seems to be what taiwan wants from america, as you study it every day? scarlet: stability. tom: both showing the flag? is it that simple? scarlet: i do not know if it is that specifically, but for things not to get worse. status quo maybe. they do not need trump's saber

rattling more than he has. they do not need xi jinping doing more than he has. tom: what was the response? we had a lot of legislators at the time, including speaker pelosi. bring that forward to 2025. to politicians is it advantageous if they show the flag in taiwan? scarlet: it depends on who you ask. the younger generation would say they like saying that because they see taiwan as its own country, culture, separate entity. if you ask the older generation, you might get a different answer. the older generation has ties to the nationalist government that fled to taiwan from mainland. paul: how do you think the folks in china are thinking about this incoming administration to mark what is the view? concern, optimism, fear? scarlet: i think they feel like they know they are dealing with a known quantity. the fact that president-elect

trump invited xi jinping to his inauguration, and she's and his team saw it for what it was, -- xi jinping and his team saw it for what it was, a flex, and they are not attending. it is a little bit of like recognizes like. did i tell you that i scored two goals for my team this season? tom: did you look at the puck? scarlet: it dribbled in but i goal is a goal. i scored two goals. tom: from outside the circle? scarlet: right from the goalie. tom: i have this problem. worldwide on bloomberg television and radio, why are they skating this guy who every time he shows up gets suspended

for cheap shots? what is the deal? scarlet: he gets the crowd into it. he gets the team excited. i think that is the plan or the vision behind it. the team needs some kind of pick me up because the core guys are not doing it at the moment. paul: they were doing it. scarlet: presidents trophy curse maybe. tom: what you cannot see is fu's entourage. ask her about cornell. scarlet: cornell beat the team we played, quinnipiac. tom: listen to you, quant up yet. scarlet: they were a very good team but cornell beat them.

we are going to see cornell beat u in 2025. tom: usually she walks in at 11:00 a.m. scarlet: i waltz in. tom: one christmas, she decided she was doing christmas up and joan rivers, the late great joan rivers, matched up scarlet fu's trade. it is huge. scarlet: i have a couple of trees. tom: why did i not know that? scarlet fu, thank you for joining us on television and radio worldwide. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

announcer: markets, headlines, and breaking news 24 hours a day, this is a bloomberg business flash. lisa: i am lisa mateo.

we have a mix of red and green after the fight over spending in washington was put on hold for another three months. nasdaq futures little changed up 10 points. dow futures down. s&p futures down 10 points. to two-year yield at 4.32 percent, up one basis point. the yield on the 10 year up two basis points. brent crude at $72 a barrel. spot gold lower. the bloomberg dollar spot index up .3%. bitcoin up at just over $95,000. they are reportedly in talks to partner with rivals to make a joint bid for government work. universal music group, the company behind taylor swift and

drake, have exploded the global partnership with amazon music. hyatt hotels and exclusive talks over options that may include a sale. playa of 20% and hyatt up 3% paid the container store filed for bankruptcy. for on-demand news 24 hours a day, subscribe to bloomberg news now wherever you get your podcasts. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: nordstrom is coming up. retail is brutal. good morning on radio and television. we welcome all of you to our frigid studios, world headquarters in new york, lexington and 59th street. i have been dying for this conversation. the deepest market out there.

i have a chart, i will not explain it but the answer is the plaza cord was in the 1980's. massively strong dollar. are we going to have amir locke out accord? if you do the geometry of the move that caused the plaza accord, we are nowhere near the dollar strength yet to get to the mar-a-lago accord or whatever accord they will call it. jane foley joins us. do you extrapolate out that someday there will be too much dollar strength for the global system? >> i do not think we are anywhere near that day yet. you can never say never, and maybe we will get to that. if there is going to be an accord, lots of different sides have got to agree to that. right now, who is going to agree to that?

put yourself in the position of german exporters. they are probably happy with the softer euro right now given the threat of tariffs potentially from the trump administration. would they suddenly agree to have a stronger euro and weaker dollar and maybe tariffs? i do not think they would. they are nowhere near coming to that agreement. when we get to a situation where it could be that you agree to a softer dollar and there will be no tariffs? maybe we can get to that sort of negotiation. it is not inconceivable but i do not think that is setting up for this year. tom cole and what should we watch on global wall street on currency dynamics question mark what is the jane foley metric that you use to look at the dollar strength tension? jane: i think we have to look at emerging markets. there is a lot of fear because of the trump policies and the threats of tariffs and the "made

in america" theme trump wants to get manufacturing back to the u.s., what is that going to do to investment in emerging markets? what is that going to do to investment in other parts of the world as well? i think that will be something the global economy will be sensitive to. i read some reports that suggest some emerging markets will be almost uninvestable because of the trump pulled to get investment back into the u.s. that is something we will watch. that can really affect the global dynamic. paul: even for the developed market currencies, with a slower rate than we anticipated several months ago, yet we still have the ecb and banks across the world cutting rates, i cannot think of a bear case for the u.s. dollar.

is there one? jane: i agree. maybe the yen can pull up. we have the story of the bank of japan potentially hiking rates cautiously through 2025. but there is the bigger story. japan is pulling itself out of 30 years of deflation and it wants to win more investment. if it does win more investment into japan, you could have a different story for the yen. apart from that, i agree. going into the middle of next year, and it is murky to try and figure out what will go on in the global economy beyond that, i think we are looking at a stronger dollar story. paul: is their value out there in some other currencies screaming value at this moment?

jane: i think perhaps what a lot of people are going to do is perhaps try to leave the dollar out of the equation and look at currency plays such as euro-yen, euro-sterling, aussie-new zealand. there is this perception that the market was surprised last week with the hawkish hold from the fed that not a lot is priced in with respect to fed interest rate cuts. there are a lot of cuts priced into the euro. there is on one hand this perception maybe we have seen most of this move and hence the attraction of looking at some crossroads. i think the dollar probably has more strength to show us. tom: i got to make some money. christmas is killing me this year. am i going to go along the korean won?

the news flow on krw, do i want to go strong korean won? if i do, what pair am i going against? jane: if you are going to go strong korean won, and there are strong things on that, you could pick out another emerging market. there are liquidity issues. i think that is what to do. i think you would be brave trying to buy that against the dollar again. tom: i ready to trade. what is my trade play korea short? korean won, japanese yen? korean won-polish? jane: i think you can do it against the euro. i do not think the euro will have a good time the first part of next year but i think that will be good news for the

europeans because of the snag mandatory -- stagnant tory issue. i think increasingly the governing council at the ecb are coming to recognize that. tom: this is great. i have never typed in erw-krw, euro-won. you can do that on the bloomberg crepe lisa is on the phone trading this. we do not make recommendations here. jane foley again. across the nation and worldwide, apple card play hugely international. on the radio from 90 91 washington up to 90 29 in boston

and this morning, we are on bloomberg television with you. we welcome all of you on bloomberg television. i hope the makeup is ok for bloomberg television. that is the way they roll over there. paul: alix steel says you have to invest in your face. tom: i completely missed that memo. we are on youtube. . this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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announcer: bloomberg radio, bloomberg television, this is a bloomberg business flash. lisa: i am lisa mateo alongside tom keene and paul sweeney with your opening bell report. how are the markets going to kick off the shortened trading week? we have more economic data. durable goods orders fell. the expectation was for a drop of .3% and november building permit. the s&p 500 little changed up four points. we have the dow down 80 points.

the nasdaq up .3%, 76 points. the two-year yield at 4.32%, little changed. the yield on the 10 year up one basis point. brent crude $72. wti $69 a barrel. the bloomberg dollar spot index up .3%. the japanese down against the dollar. the euro down against the dollar. the british pound weaker. bitcoin up .3% at just over $95,000. that is your bloomberg opening bell report. tom: greatly appreciate that. a little bit of oomph to the market. apple opening up fractionally, 255. i got a 3.857 trillion dollars.

it is like $4 trillion apple. what is the signal besides it is unimaginable? paul: people buying a lot of these things. tom: apple china, omg, they are all going to die. paul: i still think china is an issue for the company but the market does not care. 52-week high. tom: i did not know that. good morning to all of you on radio and television worldwide. scarlet fu, huge impact. paul: two goals for her team. tom: and she did not lift the puck. we say good morning on economics, finance, international relations, synthesizing it in. someone helping us with that is the chief strategist at interactive brokers. what are we missing in this

market? if i sit there saturday with my sanka reading barron's like mom and pie did years ago, what am i missing? >> i think the key element is we have all become momentum traders and have all gotten a bit speculative. that is what is going on. the speculation has gotten increasingly crowded and narrow. i think it was meaningful friday was the first time in the month of december we did not have s&p decliners facing the advancers. prior to wednesday's drop, the s&p was up for the month. we are seeing this concentration in the mag seven. you were just discussing apple. my fear is it is becoming a little bit narrow. if you think about a building, if you keep knocking out pieces of the foundation, it becomes

less stable. paul: 2025, what is the theme? we have had two years of 20%-plus growth. steve: the others are greedy type of element is creeping into my mindset quite a bit. everybody is talking about how the market is likely to continue to rally. people are talking about the 15% or so s&p profit growth expected for 2025. that is priced in already. we witnessed a bit of extra government dysfunction on friday with the budget crisis. i think there will be a lot more political uncertainty the market has not priced in. i think there is a lot of good news priced in. nobody is expecting anything on the downside which makes me wonder, are we susceptible?

tom: what are you observing in meetings? your competitors like robinhood or j.p. morgan, what are you hearing from interactive brokers clients? what is the mood? steve: the clients are definitely favoring the same names. if i asked you to guess our top five names, you would probably get them. nvidia, tesla, palantir. tom: retail is basically saying forget about the sophistication of wall street, we are comfortable owning these things. steve: yes. when you had broadcom zooming and nvidia sinking, we saw customers fading broadcom and buying nvidia. they are sophisticated in that sense. they were taking the opposite of the institutional flow. but we tend to see a lot of speculation. they love double averaging --

leveraging. tom: the quality of the bull market, you are transfixed by it? lisa: of course. paul: interactive brokers, are your clients still buying the mag seven? i'm trying to find value, -- are they trying to find value? steve: themes are very important. tesla is the presumed number one. palantir, some of that may have had to do the rebalancing. palantir has gotten popular. anything to do with quantum computing has come out of the blue. when i look at the most active list, i had to look up some of the symbols. i have never heard of these companies because they are relatively small quantum computing companies.

our customers are very perceptive about those kinds of moves and tend to jump on them as trading opportunities. tom: you have been doing this for years. you were at solomon, 18 30, 1870? when did you walk in the door of salomon brothers? steve: i first walked in the door as a summer intern in 1985. i remember when we first got a bloomberg terminal. it was exciting. i was the kid told to figure out how to use it. tom: right behind me, for those of you on bloomberg radio television, and youtube, right behind me is our museum of terminals. remember when there was a green button on the terminal that said "message"? you did not know. what is is button for? mr. bloomberg, years ago.

it was fun back then. pimm fox had the s&p blue book, the bond book. we bought individual stocks. are weak doing that or buying etf's -- are we doing that or buying etf's? steve: we are buying etf's. one of my friends called it pro-tail, which i love. tom: can we say that on radio? steve: that is why i had a footnote. i think it is great. it is hard in many cases to delineate who is retail and professional. this is a lot of it. those customers are very active traders and surprisingly sophisticated. tom: they are stealing this puppy. steve: that is why i had to give credit where credit is due. paul: interactive brokers,

etf's, that must be what your clients are trading all the time because of the lower cost estimate. steve: yes and no. there are always big etf's on the list. in many cases, the mentality is why trade triple cues when you could trade three x leverage, to tom's point. we do see a lot of action and individual stock and options. ibit, our customers were not that interested in it and then they listed options, and then it started to creep into the most active's list. our customers trade a lot of options. my career is as an options trader. this is what our customers gravitate to. paul: ibit is what they are trading? steve: they also trade a lot of microstrategy which is double or

triple levered bitcoin etf. tom: 1, 2, 3, 4. off the bloomberg professional service, i never looked this up before, tqqq was down 15% in three days with the leverage. can you imagine where they would go on a vix of 30? steve: the vix got to 28, so that was close. on wednesday, that was i need protection and will pay up for it. paul: now, they can get yelled here. steve: we are proud of the fact, and i do not mean to sound commercial but this is true, we offer access electronically to thousands of bonds, corporate, municipal, government, etc.

the investor customers are good with bonds. they are finding their shields. the trading customers find unless exciting than stocks and options. tom: what is your strategy for next year? the great thing about steve sosnick is there is not a 22-page outlook. there is a three by five card. what is it look like for next year? people at home doing ok, now what? steve: do not drink the kool-aid. be wary. i think january is going to be very telling. i know i am saying this in december and we have a couple weeks to get through. january 20 is the inauguration, on emaar -- on a market holiday, martin luther king day. earnings season will be crucial. we are expecting double digit earnings growth in 2025 off of 3% inflation, 3% gdp, where does

the other 9% or 10% come from? if companies do not reaffirm that, and you have seen companies do not do it, like micron -- tom: lisa mateo taught me this. the apple equity des january 30 two is apple earnings. nobody is talking about this yet. this will be a big deal? steve: i think it will be critical to set the tone for the year. if companies indicate the guidance is good enough to support what is christ in, the market can do fine. if any with of trouble is out there, the market will have to readjust. tom: steve sosnick, thank you so much. killeen, texas, 72 degrees this week. paul: what is in killeen?

the army has a big base down there. tom: it is between waco and austin come on i-35. you can play zz top when you roll up. good morning. on bloomberg radio, they are killing it this morning with the early daybreak. 92.9 fm in boston. of course, on youtube. subscribe to bloomberg podcasts building, growing each and every day, you can find the best of bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. we say good morning to bloomberg television worldwide this morning as well. what is coming up? dana is with us. for those of you worldwide, nordstrom's is an iconic northwest american name, like macy's parade they do not have

the thanksgiving day parade but they used to. but north comes cyclonic. they throw in the towel -- but nordstrom's is iconic. i think we have been waiting for this. we have the guest. cannot tell you how he is perfect to give he is perfect to discuss this. 18.75 on the vix. some of the tension we see within the fixed income system. on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television, good morning. ♪

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lisa: i am lisa mateo. stocks are split after a government shutdown was averted. the nasdaq up 32 points per the downtown 178 point spread the s&p down four points. the two-year yield up two basis points. the 10-year yield up two basis points. wto crude $69 a barrel. spot gold lower per ounce. the bloomberg spot index up .3%. it is a big dave for stocks with cold followings. microstrategy and pound here both entering the nasdaq 100 index. steve sosnick was just talking about palantir. both are down propellant tear down about .1% -- both are down right now.

stocks linked to quantum computing, those shares up 17%. quantum computing up 3%. that is your bloomberg business flash creek tom: thanks so much. the vix 19.00. this is an immense honor. dana telsey scheduled to join us on the holiday. we must pause for the end of an era. nordstrom's of seattle always and forever will go private. lisa mateo had this story earlier. the emotion of a family running a store. she was intimately involved with a small store on 5th avenue by the name of bergdorf goodman as a child. the emotion of a family running

retail and then it is over, describe your thoughts as you hear of the privatization of nordstrom. lisa: a couple of things. first of all, thank you very much for having me. it is an honor to be here with you. happy holidays to you and your family. you are right. the privatization of a family run business that has been around for over 100 years is a spark of change. i think the new environment today is different from the past. you have to give nordstrom credit for all it has accomplished. but the go forward environment requires big changes, whether it is a reduction in the number of stores they have, the acceleration of what may be for the rack, the continuous pursuit of new and curated brands and their assortment. for all that we know about nordstrom, the service element in the loyal customers they have is something that needs to

expanded and accelerated going forward after all they have accomplished. tom: for nordstrom and your bergdorf goodman, as joe covers big bucks, what are customers choosing to do this holiday season? dana: this holiday season, it continues to be on innovation and newness. bergdorf goodman had good increases. that is newness and differentiation for close -toed shoes. with lululemon, newness is driving demand. with lecture, we are not seeing acceleration. super upper end is different from everything else. what people are searching for and where they are going continues to be value, particularly at the lower and middle income tear. whether it be t.j. maxx or

walmart, that is where are seeing the spend lately. paul: what are the retailers telling you about this holiday shopping season? dana: compressed holiday season is a factor. you are seeing five fewer days between thanksgiving and christmas. consumers started earlier. there were promotions that started earlier. the other thing with christmas on a wednesday, the digital shopping days where you can get same-day delivery that many companies are putting in place with doordash, and you only have one more day to be able to take advantage of that. paul: anything jumping out as the go-to gift this year? some years, we have those stories. is this one of those years? dana: i think it is wider spread. keep in mind, we have had taylor swift's concert ending but target had the book of the concert tour. we had the close-toed shoes that

are popular. barrel-leg jeans are what it is all about. your still seeing newness and cosmetics -- you are still seeing newness in cosmetics. that is new brands driving demand. tom: i have a $9,950 jacket at chanel. the news, and i thinks of "the devil wears prada" where meryl streep walks in strong the bags and purses, the guy from bottega venona goes over to "save" chanel. what does that signal to you that it needs saving? dana: since carl lagerfeld passed away, the icon of a chanel brand, and you had his

long-standing colleague take over the past few years, you need to have a marker. we have seen this year many brands are getting new designers. you have had things happen at gucci that needed to happen. we have changes going on at other lv brands. it is 15 years a designer has the eye of the consumer. carl lagerfeld did much longer pretty i do not see anyone else like him out there. tom: fascinating. the holiday season, and i have all of these gloom and doom articles about retail, and yet we are still aspirational. after the pandemic, have we changed the conception beast? dana: i think we will always be consumption beasts.

there is excitement consumption brings. in 20, we could see resumption of discretionary spend. think of 2024 with all brands becoming new again. the cultural relevance of gap taking hold. is victoria's secret going to be a name for 2025 given the arrival of the ceo in september of 2024? paul: a great article titled "kirkland for christmas." what are you seeing? dana: when you think about private label and store brands, there is no one more successful in the essentials then costco's kirkland. one of the most interesting thing about their brand, everyone knows the name. yes, store brands matter. you are even seeing some department stores and apparel

looking to activate and enhance their own private label brands. it is also value, typically at a lower price than regular brands. tom: joe is an outperformer on costco. costco to the moon? dana: competitive mode that can scale. costco has more stores, products, and customers, and really loyal members. tom: thank you for your perspective, particularly on jw nordstrom. they will go private after a decade of price decline, to say the least. we are on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. we will continue this dance through the day. very excited about that. a little bit of a nasdaq lift. the vix to 19.10. is it like we are halfway to the

holidays, to christmas? paul: the s&p off a little bit pretty nasdaq is higher. just some individual names and themes. bitcoin is off 1.1%. tom: 2.25% inflation-adjusted yield on the 10-year. i do not have the numbers in front of me. i just cannot do it this morning. we are also watching the dollar. the yen 1.57. the euro 1.0396 this morning. thank you for your attention through the day. lots going on this monday. we are produced by sy benson. our global technical director is kenneth fileu.

stick with us through the day. s is "bloomberg surveillance" on radio and television. ♪ tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah.

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