>> good morning. good morning. good morning. welcome to the program. doing a simulcast for the next three hours. holiday time. sonali: everyone is stuck with us? matt: yes, the next three hours. it is a technology thing. how many people are watching financial news television? sonali: there is a selloff underway so i hope they are watching. matt: hopefully they sold and are chilling because friday was a huge selloff as well. nvidia was down 2%. tesla was down 5%. netflix, facebook, amazon, google, all of these were down 1%. sonali: you were watching from the airplane. people were watching us from home. i find you entertaining and would watch you from home. matt: that is fantastic news. we have a lot to talk about today.

the death of jimmy carter at 100 years old. it had to come but we have been fully prepared and will be talking about that with you. there is a lot of news around trade, whether or not trump's policies will spark a trade war. it is also a condition but since there is nothing to talk about, we will speculate away. >> absolutely. sonali: we will analyze. we will not speculate. matt: we will continue to analyze, which we have been doing for the past two months, but we will keep doing it today. guess what. we will keep doing it tomorrow as well. we will look at the economy. this is what i am excited about the next few hours other than alex. claudia sahm will join us and talk about an economy that was much better than expected in 2024 as well as the rise in the indexes and the economy we have to expect coming up. sonali: the bond market going out of control. matt: out of control? it was 4.6% last time i looked. sonali: when bonds move

aggressively, i lean over to matt, taken by the shoulders, and shake him maybe three or four different times last week. you saw the 10 year past 4.60. i know you love the 4.2%. matt: a little high. >> i am looking to refinance the mortgage on the jersey shore compound. not happening anytime soon. matt: do you expect rates to continue to decrease? let's get over to alex joining us in the bloomberg interactive studio. you have a look at some of the movers. alex: pretty ugly morning in futures trading right now. all major averages down 1% and one of the names in the red is boeing those shares sliding after the tragic plane crash in south korea that killed 179 people. this is one of the deadliest plane crashes in decades. just two crewmembers surviving. investigators are focusing on a

possible bird strike or a landing gear failure. boeing of course has been under scrutiny for faulty aircrafts recently but analysts are saying this event was unrelated to boeing's production. that is obviously not stopping investors from punishing the stock this morning. it was down 5% earlier in trading. aside from the obvious name association with the 737 aircraft, the tragic crash should have no readthrough on boeing stocks long-term. matt: crazy video. sonali: it is unbelievable. matt: you don't see a plane coming to a runway that does not have the landing gear and to see that outcome. matt: typically you want to put the landing gear down first. if not, aim for water. there is a lot of questions about this. i hear so many new stories, read so many new stories saying it had to deal with birds in the engine, but i don't get how that could affect the landing gear. there is a lot more to come on this story i'm sure.

alex: another name i am looking at his ax in therapeutic. shares fell 13% this morning. the company said it is moving ahead with plans to submit its alzheimer's disease treatment for fda approval even though the results were mixed from two clinical trial readouts. axsome said it's drug met the primary endpoint for testing but it failed to show any statistical significance in another trial. shares are down this morning on that news. sonali: we are also watching some of the more hotly traded names when looking at the selloff this morning. let's look at what the magnificent seven is doing. nvidia down 2%. apple down another 1%. tesla down almost 5% right now. what is going on? alex: the high flyers, the big winners are taking the brunt of losses this morning. look at the nasdaq 100. futures are down more than 1.4%.

some of these names, apple, nvidia, microsoft all down in premarket trading. they accounted for more than half of the s&p 500 rally this year. unsurprising they are leading declining because it is a bit of a momentum unwind. the stocks that have been doing so well that reached these lofty valuations getting the brunt of selling. these companies are facing more challenging year-over-year comparisons with their earnings so investors are looking ahead to 2025. any disappointment on earnings could be a big mess for these companies. matt: we appreciate it. alexandra covers the equities for bloomberg news, joining us in our new york radio studio. it is the bloomberg-interactive brokers studio. i guess joins us. he is a senior portfolio manager. thank you for joining us here. let's start with 2025.

20% plus returns and 2023 -- 2023, same for 2024. are we going to do a three pete and 2025? how are you talking about your clients for the upcoming year? >> it is hard to predict a third straight year of these sorts of gains. we have been watching a lot a football over the holidays and i think 2024 was like a quarterback throwing the football 40 yards deep. 2023 was the same thing. 2025 will be a good old-fashioned run the ball three yards in a cloud of dust. the reason for that, so much of what we have seen the last few years has dealt with multiple expansion. the multiple on the s&p 500 has gone up by 16% the past year, nearly 30% the prior year. and with the market now trading at 22 times earnings, it is hard to see that degree of multiple expansion going forward so we will have to rely on earnings, which right now forecasts are

for 14% growth this year. that is double the long-term average. i think for investors you certainly have policy tailwinds. you don't want to fight the fed. you don't want to fight the incoming administration that will be cutting taxes and deregulating. but you also have to look at valuations. that certainly has gotten pretty rich to expect the same return this year. sonali: ok, i will try to do the football reference. >> i know you have been watching the nfl. sonali: is the two-year, 10 year, 30 year, the linebackers, the defensive on the equity market? if they are rising, all of a sudden you have an equity market that does not meet those expectations that are still looking at 10% rises for much of the strategy rolled out there? burns: really, you do have those headwinds to face. another way of thinking of what we should see in 2025 is to just go back to where we were a year

ago. for 2024, we were climbing a wall of worry. you had inverted yield curves. inflation close to 9%, now close to 3%. we have geopolitical conflicts that may escalate. fingers crossed, so far, so good. we were going into an election that we were not sure if we would know the outcome by christmas, which we got a clear-cut outcome. now on the flipside, we are going into 2025 with all of those at least in the near term resolved. you have a fed reducing interest rates. you have an incoming administration that is really focused on tax cuts and deregulation. if we had a wall of worry a year ago, there might be a wall of complacency. >> i only watch one football game every year. ohio state-michigan. it was really disappointing this year. sonali: i saw the loss by two last night.

what a pain. i am really watching. matt: i want to get to the stocks you like because i know the multiple expansion, it is a tough ask at 24, 25 times earnings and beating 14%, 15% earnings growth is also a tough ask. so i guess you have to look to rotation or the broadening out trade, the other 493 stocks in the s&p or maybe small caps. what are the names or sectors that you like? burns: i think, again, we definitely believe there is a strong case to be made for a broadening of returns, for investors to go into those names that have lagged the last couple years. some of the places we were looking, industrials is a place that we feel with interest rates starting to come down, that is certainly good for the machinery names. that is a sector that has tailwinds with respect to infrastructure spending. an infrastructure bill from

three years ago, and a lot of that money is making its way out the door. that is in place to look. another sector would be health care. that is a place where there is a lot of headline risk with respect to some of the incoming appointments. a lot of that as may be overlooking the fact that there could be deregulation. you have a sector that straddles the best of all worlds. you have health care earnings growth has been 12% per year for the last 40 years. that is even better than tech. you have positive demographics and ways you can play defense. so those are some of the sectors that may be a bit unloved that we are focusing on these days. paul: before i ask the next question, i have to say i am watching the show "landmen" so i am not an expert. are no all about this oil and gas stuff. talk about schlumberger. why do you like that? burns: i love the show "land

man" as well. i grew up in west texas. paul: really? is it like that? there is nothing out there but we'll. burns: it looks more like that that you think. but specifically the schlumberger, we have the new president focused on deregulatory goodmans in the oil industry. they are focusing on drill, baby, drill. if that is the case, you have a name that they are the largest oil services name. right now trading at 11 times earnings. that is below the s&p energy index. trains a 50% -- trades of 50% premium that index. the lowest 10% of observations. we got a nice free cash flow yield. the largest oil services, they have economies of scale and good geographic diversity for a company that the dominant player

in drilling, they do a lot of seismic and are addressing that going forward. matt: did you have a good season this year? the is a mavericks fan. sonali: we have to leave it there. matt: you won't let him comment? we have a minute left. sonali: please. we got sports today. matt: are you still there? sonali: senior portfolio manager at nfj portfolio group. you mentioned one game he watched. what was that? matt: i just watch the ohio state-michigan game. sonali: college, interesting. matt: four years in a row. michigan has beat us four years in a row. paul: you have one of the best

team in college football but the coach may lose his job. matt: he has to. sonali: you are not putting your money where your loyalty is because sports betting is the other thing. matt: i don't. i don't do that. sonali: i am usually raining in his impulses but this is the one thing where he is raining and mine. paul: good luck raining in his impulses. i tried a while. matt: we got david westin waiting in the wings. he is a wolverine alum and will talk to us about jimmy carter, who died at 100 years old. only four years in the oval office but after that is when the real magic happened. jimmy carter's obit next. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: welcome back to a joint production of "bloomberg open interest."

what do you call the show broadcasting right now? paul: bloomberg intelligence. actually, we are finishing up "bloomberg surveillance." we are assuming he is at a cafe in paris with a bottle of wine. matt: wine? i would say that is unlikely. we are looking at a market right now that i think is safe to say is reeling. s&p futures are down 1.2% after a 1% drop on friday december is usually a good months. over the past 25 years, december is a 1% gainer on average and now we are looking at a 1% drop before the cash trade this morning. what happened to santa claus? sonali: it has been tough. santa claus did not meet the stock market this time around.

it fell 3% on fed day and found again on christmas eve. it looked really choppy. it rose before christmas eve, one of the best days ever for christmas eve, and fell everyday since being a get back in a big way. matt: former president jimmy carter passed away at the age of 100. he entered a tumultuous tenure marked by a recession and energy prices and the iran hostage crisis. after politics, carter committed much of his time to peacekeeping and humanitarian efforts. david westin, anchor of "bloomberg wall street week" is with us now to share his legacy. where do you want to start? i kinda feel like the post-presidency was almost as important or more so than his four years in the oval office. david: it was terribly important because many people think it was the greatest, most distinguished , most impactful post-presidency of any president in u.s. history. but as you say, it was one four

year term that came at a difficult time in the wake of watergate and vietnam. he had a lot of things to do with it including one-way inflation, but he accomplished a great deal, including internationally with the cap david peace accords as we know also normalize relations with china. he was the one who normalized relations. he laid the groundwork for a lot of the economic success of ronald reagan. people paul volcker in place to get inflation under control. he started deregulation in airlines and trucking and gas. matt: bummer, by the way. the deregulation of airlines. now we only have four. it is like a monopoly. ticket prices go up and quality goes down. david: you may not listen to the incoming president but he tends to like deregulation. whatever you think about airline deregulation. in the longer scope of things, deregulation has been the impetus for the last 30 years and he started it whether right

or wrong, he started it and does not always get credit for that. ronald reagan got credit for defense buildup with carol brown, his defense secretary. they started investing in hybrid weaponry -- high-grade weaponry. a lot of what reagan benefited from, they set up. matt: of course, i thought reagan was behind the deregulation push. i thought as a kid watching it that reagan was responsible for getting the hostages freed and carter could not do it. that was a huge part of the election we saw in 1980. paul's first election. congratulations, you picked a winner. a moment of silence for president carter on the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq. let's go down there.

all right, so the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq honoring jimmy carter with a moment of silence. i want to bring back in david westin, host of "wall street week" to talk about the legacy of president carter. we talk little bit about his four years in office but where he really made his mark was after that. he won the nobel peace prize. you mentioned the camp david accords. he worked towards peace for the rest of his life. what are the standout accomplishments, achievements? david: interesting you mentioned the nobel peace prize. he won it for what happened

afterwards, not the kim davis -- not the kim david peace accords -- not the camp david peace accords. he fought for diseases in sub-saharan africa. he was in the vanguard of that. he did a huge amount. and then of course there is habitat for humanity in the united states where he would go out and build houses. extraordinary period post-presidency. sonali: something i haven't thinking about is some of the things that happened at that time. you mentioned paul volcker leading the fed, bringing down inflation in a really aggressive way. something carter was very in support of and needed to happen. painful choice at the time. do you think choosing policy over politics would happen in that kind of a mentor today? david: that is a great question. certainly he did do that. people say that is why he got beaten so badly by ronald reagan. because he was very principled.

whatever you think about his policies, he was a very principled man and would follow policy. even with paul volcker what he said we would run into a recession, he said i handle the politics, you had on the economy. he really backed him on that knowing he would pay a steep price. have we seen that since then? i am not sure. it is fairly hard to find true profiles in courage these days i would say. i am saying that for both democrats and republicans. it is hard to find that. sonali: even in today's republic and party, if you were to go against the grain, your primary seat is being threatened already so i don't know that could happen. david: it is a game of politics but there is a version of that on the democratic side too where you had joe biden become president and this seemed to trim his sails because of concerns with the left wing of the party. i think to some extent he was hemmed in by that as well. i am afraid things have evolved. but carter was sort of a transitional figure. let's be frank, gerald ford lost

to him by an error margin in bar chart because he pardoned president nixon. he was an outsider. maybe our first outsider as president. maybe in that way he led the path. wall street journal wrote about this today. he led the path to donald trump. matt: i think one of the legacies of president carter was his post-presidential career, which was so rich and diverse and set the template for some of the other presidents. how do i spend my postpresidential years having my centers and trying to be active and constructive? certainly president carter did that as well as anybody. david: i think he changed the nature of post-presidency. i think that is exactly right, paul. certainly saw with bill clinton that happened, george walker bush, that happened, even george w. bush. he has done a lot of good with his presidential library and center as well and has devoted himself to doing good things and

using their status to accomplish things around the world. carter changed the entire nature of what happens after your president. matt: david westin, thank you so much for joining us on the legacy of jimmy carter. what can we expect from "wall street week" coming up on this friday? david: ok, so we will take a look forward into what we are seeing in 2025 and the biggest issues we will have. we will set the table as it were. i will get on the road and visit oil fields in the middle of winter. matt: cool. david: in wyoming to report on methane. matt: i would like to go to wyoming. i think now is a great time to go to wyoming. paul: jackson hole. david: i drive for a couple hours outside of jackson hole. sonali: thank you for joining us on the legacy of jimmy carter. we are looking forward to your "wall street week." everyone is taking out their playbook for 2025. it is set up to be a difficult

one. a lot of questions around which companies will succeed. we just talked to burns where schlumberger was one of his top picks. oil did not do well. the oil companies did not do well. >> this is a deregulation play, what the market is open for. sonali: seeing tons of m&a to set the industry on fire once again because this year was not a good year by ebrard for energy. they were one of the biggest laggards in the s&p 500. >> i think a lot of people would argue get rid of the red tape and let people drill, baby, drill, and it will come. sonali: but they did. that is the thing. matt: there is still a lot more to do there. we will continue to talk about that. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: special edition of "bloomberg open interest." it is a simulcast. paul sweeney is here. sonali and i are in the studio. opening bell will bring in about 10 seconds on the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq. futures are looking bad. it is looking scary out there. more than 1% the drop after a 1% drop on friday. all the big tech stocks fell, and tech is leading the losses. futures down 1.2% on the s&p 500. there are the opening bells.

happy happy joy joy but it will not look good for people that are long stocks this morning. in terms of the live indexes, it takes a few seconds for them to get started trading but you will see big red arrows on the dow jones industrial average. katie greifeld is not here. she does not like the down. she thinks it is only for old people. sonali: she did not quite say that. matt: it is irrelevant in her terms, but down 466 points, 42535. the s&p 500 down 70 points, more than 1%, at 5900 even. i thought we were going to 6300. a big drop into the end of the year. december now down more than 2% in terms of the intraday. you can see the nasdaq as well off right now. because it is the big tech stocks falling. if you look at the nasdaq 100, you can see a big drop there.

let me pull up my bloomberg terminal. does not come up automatically. paul: i got my launchpad. matt: i should open that up in the studio. paul: how about the vix? i want to call that out for tom. 18.4 on the vix. a little bit of risk feeling in the market. matt: a little bit. we are not even to 20 yet. paul: 20 gets your attention. sonali: 20 does get your attention but the fact that we are in a holiday week and elevated is still strange. matt: what about the bond market? take a look at the 10 year yield right below 4.60% at 4.5555%. playing defense to the stock rally. sonali: playing defense. when you were off last week, we hit 4.62%. i could barely breathe. you had something to talk about. we are still elevated. 4.55% feels like a real breather

after what was experienced a week ago. paul: absolutely. matt: to me, it still feels tough. you want to refinance your mortgage. looking at 4.55% has to hurt. paul: it hurts. i will sit there with my 6% mortgage and not worry about it. sonali: at least it is now 7%. that is what it is barreling toward. we will now bring in alexandra. alexandra: apparently we are not the only ones working on this penultimate trading day of the year. there are still some wall street analysts firing off upgrades and downgrades to stocks. american airlines was upgraded to an outperformer by raymond james. they cite and improve revenue outlook -- in improved revenue outlook -- they cite an improved revenue outlook and engagement with corporate investors. not a big move on the stock this morning, down slightly, but a solid run you to date. up 26% in 2024, are performing the -- outperforming the s&p

500. matt:matt: i would imagine boeing takes a hit today after the weekend news of another 737 involved in a crash. it is paul's favorite plane. i will not get on one. paul: 737 all day long. matt: it was not a max but it had let your issues that caused the worst crash in south korean history. alexandra: it happened on the 737-800 aircraft. analysts are saying this has nothing to do is production of the boeing jet. investigators are checking on a possible bird strike or geer failure but that is not stopping investors from punishing the stock. it is down 6%. an analyst is defending the name saying aside from the obvious name association with the 737 jet, and does not have to do with the production. there should not be any substantial readthrough on the stock despite the move today. matt: nordstrom. alexandra: another when getting cut to a sell rating.

this is basically in response to the deal news from last week. you guys remember the big announcement ahead of the holidays that the nordstrom family said it would be taking the company private in an all cash deal with a mexican retailer. more often we see cuts to hold after acquisitions like this. that is pretty much the rationale here. they do not see another bidder emerging to pay a premium on the family office of nordstrom owners will take profits from the recent run-up, up 30% this year, and sell their shares. even though it has had a solid run in 2024, it is down over the past five years with retailers struggling. matt: alex comes in every day. alexandra: i try. paul: everybody else merely get in. all of their returns going to saint barts at aspen. alex comes in every day. matt: the kids have to come in. those of us who are experienced

with time under our belt, we get to take off. sonali: lazy. matt: that was harsh. alex, thank you so much for joining us here. paul: let's look ahead to 2025. we had two phenomenal years in the equity market at a phenomenal return in the bond market in 2024 with a couple days left. i would guess joins us -- our guest joins us. what are you telling your clients? i am sure you are taking a victory lap but what are you telling them to do in 2025? >> we are not discussing investments nearly as much so that is a nice position to begin but you mentioned earlier the mortgage rates. many of our clients will have interest rates that they think about refinancing. we are think about the outlook for rates, whether they should be sitting in cash or not and

catches a decent place to stash, no longer a drag. at the same time, we know the direction interest rates are heading. there will always be this fomo particularly among smaller investors weathered look at what they might make on the equity markets so we'll have a steady allocation to bonds as a source of deflation hedge that is an anchor of portfolio and a source of income but that is not where the growth comes from. >> i have to ask. we have seen the equity market rent of 26% each of the last two years. when i fear the drop from that high, i want to hide and treasuries. i am getting almost 5% on riskless 20 year treasuries. why not take that return? am i going to see a bigger gain in the equity market this year? aoifinn: i think you will , and you will be sorry you hi --

i think you will, and you will be sorry you hid out and treasuries. it has been interesting. the demand is there right now. matt: but what drives us higher? we are already trading at pretty rich valuations. we are already discounting 15% earnings growth next year. everybody has already priced in an easing fed, trump deregulation, tax cuts. what is there to drive us higher? who is not already in stocks? where does the extra buyer come from? aoifinn: that is what tips is over. it is a different question because equities will rise. study single digits every year. that is average in down years. what would tip us over? what is the downside? geopolitical risk does not seem to be at. we have discovered in much of the turmoil that could come from the trump presidency around tariffs. we know america first means

there will be a reinvestment in america. we will probably get a strong dollar. there is no interest in the incoming administration to leading to market turmoil. we have to think about these factors and the deregulatory tailwind what would tip us to a market downturn. it does not mean there will not be a black swan event but we are not betting against equities. sonali: one about the concentration of the markets? that is something concerning more and more investors who want to diversify but find it hard to do so when you still have the magnificent seven comprising so much of the returns. aoifinn: we have always advocated a court allocation that as well spread across sectors and has growth as well as value in there, mid and large caps. never being too focused or technical on the magnificent seven. that may be something we regret and conversations with clients because it reports to a tech index as a strong performer and we have to compared to that, but you will be in some of the

sectors that really have not yet rallied, that are defensive, and that will show some delivering according to fundamentals in the year ahead. paul: are you buying into this crypto thing? matt miller is all in. i am i jamie dimon, not sure. matt: sonali anchors the bloomberg crypto show. sonali: i am completely neutral. paul: completely neutral. how do you think about it? aoifinn: first of all we have to think about how it performs as an asset class. we cannot add something to acquire portfolio without having basic parameters on if it is an inflation or deflation hedge or a gamble and opportunistic speculative investment. it has been the latter up to now and we do not have an indication to its characteristics. it looks like a risk on trade so we are watching it. where we feel more security is around the picks and shovels around it so exchanges or anything that supports the asset

as opposed to the asset itself. the asset itself, we do not have the characteristics we can model at this stage. >> energy production obviously a big one for crypto and maybe even bigger for ai. the you look at that? speaking of picks and shovel's, moody's is estimating $2 trillion will be spent over the next five years on ai infrastructure. where do you put your money to play that bet? aoifinn: the great thing about infrastructure as it hits so many different aspects of our portfolio. we can play it on the public side, private side. plenty equities have more equity-like characteristics. there is a lot of getting exposed to the picks and shovels. it provides a relies income as well as the capital appreciation as demand is starting to rise. it is the linchpin across public and private assets right now. sonali: when you look at the

energy trade, it is interesting because there is one outperforming committee of this year, the biggest gain or in the s&p 500, up 258%. it seems there are even some players in the picks and shovels space that have been very bent up this year. at what point do you start to worry about valuations given the run-up we have seen? aoifinn: it goes back to fundamentals. this goes back to the earlier question as to like you may not want equities at this moment. it has been back by fundamentals clear revenues and the first mover advantage when it comes to the infrastructure providers and nvidia as a chip provider. from that point of view, we would not want to see overconcentration in that and we will counsel our clients to expect more volatility in those stocks that have run up the most. we can see a lot of intraday volatility, certainly intra-month volatility in those stocks, but we want to look at

the market landscape and where the competitive forces are and essentially how large the moat is that a provider like that would have. paul: you have run 38 marathons. my question is, why? why would you run 26.2 miles 38 times? aoifinn: it is over 50 now. i have to update bloomberg. for me, it is a psychological journey. it is about the ups and downs knowing you can get to the end of that in my case in just about four hours. i am not winning any awards. the older i get, the closer i get to a time that will get you to boston. it is a personal challenge i love. matt: where is the next marathon? what is the next one? aoifinn: that is not something i have in the cards at the moment. i have done a few u.s. ones. i did richmond, virginia. they have great swag there. nothing yet.

any ideas for 2025? i will get there. two a year. matt: i don't know. i don't know where they have marathons. there is one in new york, berlin, boston. that is about all i don't. sonali: this might be a nice substitute. matt: marathon runs. if anyone has -- paul: just go to hims. they do whatever the knockoffs are. matt: i will check it out. the chief investment officer at moneta. there is never enough speculation about donald trump's policies when he comes into office in just about 21 days. we will do that when we come back. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: we are going to get to the wall street beat right now. are we not going to do that?

paul: we have someone who does not for in the. -- we have someone who does that for in the. matt: you have had some knockout interviews. sonali: intimidated by 2025 already. paul: the outlook from the ceos you are talking to our by and large optimistic. sonali: super optimistic. paul: they were hiring bankers this year in anticipation of next year. sonali: even on top of that, he was talking -- paul is usually pretty cautious and was talking that how next year might be the best year on record for mn day -- for m&a. wall street is watching the regulatory approach under the president-elect's future administration in hopes of dealmaking. i spoke with the citigroup ceo one week after trump's election. here is what her clients are focusing on. >> from our clients around the world, i think they would say four t's.

the first one is the tempering of regulation. second would be taxes. third would be tariffs. the final one would be tightening immigration. as we look across the board, i would put that in the perspective of a largely progrowth agenda. sonali: of course, that was the citigroup ceo jane fraser in the middle of a massive turnaround story for her bank. i will now bring in a senior reporter for our finance team at bloomberg news. we used to sit back back so i missed conversation with you. i had to drag you on set two days before new year's. what do you think the prospects for next year? you already saw for example barclays ready to set up much bigger bonuses for their bankers. is it looking that rosy across the street realistically? >> i don't we just talked about the interview but if you had to see the best indicator for what people are expecting next year for the banks, look at what their stocks have done this year and that will tell you what you need to know about expectation

and the outlook going into next year. they are all up 40% to 50%. jeffries is up something like 95%. sonali: i was going to say none better than goldman but jeffries is perhaps better. sridhar: the fact that their stocks doubled this year on the expectation they will be a gusher of activity opened up next year, that is where banking expectations are right now, but there are crosswinds and you are never certain how it will pan out. in fact, if you were to look at what happened the day after the november election, all the bank stocks rallied up, and in the days after that, went up even higher. but since then, they have given up half of their gains. so what the concern there is not entirely clear. they are not as certain of that outlook as they were on november 5 or six. we are not sure about that.

if you talk to the c-suite and all of these banks, the hope and optimism that they exude is very clear and visible. >> so what kind of deregulation do investors want to see specifically? because we throw this term around a lot. we are talking about deregulation from the carter era on airlines. as i think about it, we saw deregulation but we also have seen jetblue is not allowed to buy spirit. so you still have intervention from the government that changes the way these businesses work. in banking, what do investors -- what does jamie dimon want to see in terms of deregulation? sridhar: i guess deregulation is the word we would use if you have to outline it.

if you look at the action of the fed, especially the capitol rules, the fact that they were facing big increases on their capital requirements was a big headache for banks much of this year even before the election. the banks made an aggressive push. they roll some of the proposals. with the change in administration and tune, banks the sense of opportunity to go for the kill and make a bigger ask to make sure there is not any increase in capital wherever they much better than it looked like at the start of 2024. sonali: it is not even just the capitol rules. it is the areas that were being cracked down on. vivek ramaswamy, who is leading the doge effort, is looking at the cpfb. what does it mean for some of that to be rollback on? sridhar: that is one of the most fascinating aspects right now. if you have been addicted to twitter or x through the holiday

season, shame on you. but if you have been, you would have noticed a lot of conversation on cfpb. these are names that have come out and sent -- said it needs to be eliminated altogether. vivek's tweets over the last week or so make it clear he is not happy with what is happening. the incoming chair of the senate banking company has also been quite frustrated with what the cfpb has been doing in terms of their rulemaking. if you are period, they are not doing anything but we have seen the action on overdraft fees, the lawsuit against walmart and one of their fintechs, and some of the other motions in place including the crackdown going after banks because of the zelle fraud. some old-school gop members are not happy about it, but i also

find a very interesting strand here is there really are two different types of gop right now. there is one where the faction of populism has been gaining ground and hold and you can argue it is coming straight down from the president. for that group, an agency like the cfpb going after the overdraft fees, going after things like zelle fraud, you would think that would be encouraged. but the anti-regulation gop faction would see something likely cfpb as anathema. interesting to see which faction in the administration wins. >> i had dinner with a high school buddy of mine who is one of the top lawyers in the city. he hates his job. all he does is complain about his job. i am mike, then leave. he said the biggest change will be mina con at the federal trade

commission. getting anybody can be a boon to m&a lawyers and bankers. sridhar: yes, lina khan has been -- if kamala harris were to win, she might not stay in that position because of the pressure being put on the seat and the fear in the tech industry and beyond of how much it was cramping dealmaking. but the same time, listen to some of the comments made by vice president elect jd vance during the campaigning cycle. he did not sound like someone who was the absolute anti-lina khan type. it remains to be seen which faction of the gop has the louder voice. but if you did not have the lina khan figure -- sonali: guys. >> having voted for reagan in 1980, i can tell you there is only one voice. sridhar: but even that voice has

not been the most predictable voice. sonali: i am never bored of regulation but i am bored relative to the other topic i want to talk about. money, bonus season. deals did not yet come back to the is there an exit to should that bankers will get paid anyways -- is there an expectation that bankers will get paid anyways? sridhar: they are still well below their averages and the expectation is they will get there. some of the bonus payouts this year will not only be a recognition for the work done this year but what you need to pay to keep top talent in their seat. this is visible not only in bonus payouts. look at the promotions. some of these top promotions, they have bigger sizes than the past. they are recognizing the work already been done but also telling them there is a lot more opportunity to make a killing in the year ahead. paul: when i was managing, when i gave up, i do not have any money, i gave out titles.

the kids still appreciate that. sridhar: are you allowed to say that? sridhar: yeah -- paul: yeah. matt: i hope you don't come to work tomorrow. sridhar: sadly i will be here. matt: you have to celebrate the new year. you are young and unencumbered. sonali: he can celebrate with us. matt: go to a party. sridhar: a celebration with you guys. matt: covering the banks for us. i am excited about our next guest because we have a denison university alum. i went to denison for one ill-fated year, and then i was asked to leave. sonali: what did you do? matt: after a couple semesters. it is a much longer story that we have time for. claudia sahm is coming up next. she is the chief economist. it has been a good 2024 in terms of the economy. we will ask her what she expects for 2025.

this is bloomberg. ♪

♪

>> welcome back to "bloomberg open interest." it is also "bloomberg intelligence" because we have joined forces, simulcasting together on this down day in the markets. and it was bad already on ryan day, off another 1.7% today on the s&p 500, looking at big drops for big tech stocks. if you look at the bottom of the ledger on the s&p 500, you see apple dragging eight points, microsoft down, amazon down, broadcom is off, google is off. all of those mega caps stocks are losers today, and that is no good for the index. >> the new york stock exchange will close markets on january 9 in honor of president carter. >> so no trading on january 9. >> i'm sure people can correct

me on this but i don't remember that happening before. >> i don't either. they are notoriously frugal with market closures. >> but they do have funerals or presidents. >> today? >> they close the exchange on presidential funerals? >> we have someone who really does know this, alex has covered this before. >> my first time covering this, i'm told that they don't -- >> i know that nyse doesn't like to have three days in a row of no trading. they just don't want to go three days. >> four days closed on 9/11. >> the last presidential funeral would have been what, reagan? you were in elementary school at the time. >> well before i was here with you guys. >> we have a client writing and

saying they always close on president deaths. >> should also say the january 9 was designated by president biden as national day of mourning as well. so the markets will be closing for that. >> thank you for that. >> alex, what have you got on these markets for us? >> taking a look at some of the companies the most volatile the past month. the first name that i have is microstrategy. unsurprisingly it is also down more than 6%. this is a company seeing a lot of twists and turns recently, first rising with bitcoin to $108,000, now down of course alongside the token trading just about 91,000. the move to the downside and of course this company is seen as the equity prophecy for bitcoin. a high-risk strategy given its underlying value is tied to the moves in the cryptocurrency. that's not really stopping from purchasing more coins. between december 23 and december 29 and acquired approximately

2138 bitcoin for $209 million cash. the average price was $98,000 per token and of course, the cryptocurrency has since fallen. >> you are also taking a look at supermicro data down another 5% or more today, similar to what you saw friday as well. >> really incredible story for this company, it looked unstoppable in the first half of the year amid soaring demand for servers and data centers. it peaked in march days after it was tapped for inclusion in the s&p 500 with a market value about $66 million. in august the company was targeted by short-sellers. it has kind of been downhill ever since. citing internal review of its controls and that put the company up, the nasdaq listing in jeopardy. and in october, the big news

that an auditor resigned, that was the worst day for the company on a and shares are now down 70 percent since that march record. hired a new auditor in time to get an extension from the nasdaq but it now has until february 25 to do that. >> never a good look when the rep it will company in charge of your books says we can no longer vouch for this. >> they hired someone not in the big four accounting firms which also was seen by investors as kind of a disappointment. >> when i started back in the day it was the big eight, then the big six, then the big four. >> i wonder how many big airlines there were when you were starting. >> my first trading desk was 300,000 shares of pan american airways. it took me all day to do it. >> this reminds me, i'm guessing that president bush 1 was in office at the time.

in any case, he was about to be, because you started in 1986 so a couple years later. i'm only bringing this up because it has been pointed out to me now twice that reagan wasn't the last president that we lost, president bush, george herbert walker bush died. and for him, the new york stock exchange also had a closure. it was a national day of mourning, december 5, 2018. i wasn't in the country at the time but i do honor and respect the legacy of george herbert walker bush. let's get to one more stock here. tesla has been in the news or at least elon musk has a lot lately. he's written a column in favor of the far right party in germany which is so far to the right that the national intelligence agency has it under investigation. anyway, musk is in support of that party and he's also had a

lot more wins lately because of his big backing of donald trump, essentially co-president-elect. but tesla stock has been under fire, today down another 3%. >> third straight day of losses for tesla after a pretty incredible run for the company. leading up to the third quarter it was on its way to just the third losing year in its decade and a half is a public company and then after the election it got a big bid in november, the stock suddenly among the best performers in the s&p 500 it rallied more than 70% from the presidential election through christmas adding roughly $600 billion to its market cap. did anything happen with the company to trigger this turnaround? no, it is really about elon musk's close relationship with the trump administration, investors event benefiting the company right now. trading lower for a third, following with its magnificent

seven peers. part of this is the momentum of the high flyers that have done so well and of course, it's future has been looking pretty uncertain. high demand for its cars has been deteriorating and not great on the fundamentals. but if it does get a good bid from the trump administration, back at help the name in 2025. >> we appreciate you so much. watching all things equities for us. also want to point out another hot headline crossing the terminal, that is donald trump, the president-elect untruth social saying a lot of things, but importantly, given that the house speaker vote is expected in early january, saying that mike johnson speaker mike johnson is doing -- does a good, hard-working religious man who will do the right thing and continue to win. he has is complete and total endorsement. maga!!! i'm just reading from the post. but importantly that endorsement

is going to matter as we look at those fractures in congress. back to the broader market now, we are going to bring in kim, fiduciary trust managing director. it's interesting because you are having a lot of people try to weigh in on a few competing forces, that progrowth agenda expected under the president-elect and his higher interest rate environment that is starting to toy with the exuberance of the stock market. which force is winning in your mind? >> it's great to be here. i think into year-end, what we have been waiting for was some clarity on the administration and where the economy is going. we obviously got that in november. we do think that the economy is really geared for more growth going forward. like you said, there is a bit of needle threading with the fed and high expectations for this cycle to continue. i think overall we are still per

deposited on u.s. equities with global equity allocation. i think it is timing. you guys talk a bit about the mag seven. there is a lot of optimism, we think that is rounding out over the next year. but in general, very positive environment, we just don't think it is going to be quite as good as this year. expectations are superhigh. >> what sectors scream well for you guys as you look ahead to next year? these coupons going to the bank. what do the rest of us do? >> as we think about the new administration and what changes we are going to see in the u.s., you can start to see a lot of changes, regulation. we talked earlier about financials. i think energy and industrials, other areas that could be pretty positive, and you have actually started to see a lot of

infrastructure, a lot of investment in the sectors. you should see that stud to come through on the earnings side which is i would say opposite of the mag seven. obviously with ai, there has been a ton of investment that is probably going to be a longer-term roi. we would tend to be moving into some of these more cyclical sectors type that reassuring thing over the next year. >> notwithstanding today's move, and it is quite sharp, if you look at bitcoin and work, care now barreling down closer to 90,000. 91000 and change. 91,300 on the day. still with that kind of volatility, what kind of rolled does that play in the portfolio? you seen anyone who got in at the $100,000 could feel a little bit nervous today. >> probably doesn't like this.

>> i was just thinking this morning, who bought at over $100,000? who said now is a good time to jump in? >> the momentum is strong. a fiduciary trust, we've done a lot of work not just with bitcoin but with a lot of the bigger points across the face. a lot of positive trends happening over the next year. we've seen some of them play out. i think there's been a lot more institutional by with the etf's. that was a huge win i would say for the fed asset class over the last year. the trump administration coming back to that, i think that is all going to be pretty good tailwinds over the next year.

i think as you do see some of these days, there's going to be commentary but over the long term, there is actually pretty solid fundamental backing for bitcoin in particular, and you are going to see that play out over the next year with some of these pretty structural changes in the market. >> thanks so much for joining us, really appreciate it. part of franklin templeton, franklin templeton has got this awesome conference just south of the airport. the best starbucks i've ever been to was across the street from the franklin templeton. i have no idea why. the first one i went to was across the street from janice funds in denver. this was way back in the day. that was the first one, but when you go marketing chips to visit all these investment firms around the world, you get a lot of downtime between meetings.

you sit at what is now starbucks. >> the firm ceo spending a lot of time in florida as well. i've been told that you can see her rollerblading down the street. so people enjoy that. >> franklin templeton, good office in florida lauderdale but the best office is in the bahamas. forget starbucks, when you market you can go to cleveland or you can go to the bahamas. i'm going to go international, people. we are going to talk about these markets and a little bit of a preview. that is coming up. this is bloomberg, good morning. this is bloomberg, good morning. ize my purpose and passion in life. pursuing my degree gave me so many opportunities to grow don't just think about yourself. think about the lives that you can really change.

snhu laid the groundwork. i am doing what i've always wanted to do. if i was back at the beginning, i would choose snhu all over again. (♪♪)

♪ >> welcome back to bloomberg open interest. it is also bloomberg intelligence.

we are with him, simulcast this freefall in the markets. the s&p 500 off 1.5%. the nasdaq 100 off 1.6%. and even the dow jones industrial average is taking a big hit today. it is the mag seven stocks that are down the hardest on the s&p, at the dow is down further, almost 700 points in the drop on the dow at 42,300. what is going on here? >> you cannot blame the bond market today is when i would say. the ten-year yield is down seven basis points. i know you think that is a lot. it is, but at the same time, we were 462 on friday. so serious moves in the equity market. light volumes, it is a holiday week but it is the worst day for the s&p 500 since fed day, which of course led to a pretty brutal

selloff in market that day. >> volume on the s&p and nasdaq, it is 15-25% below the average. but for nasdaq it is 26% above. people are selling textile for some vengeance here. we will keep an ion that. >> looks like investors selling the stocks and buying bonds. maybe they look and said i want a piece of that return after i lock in 26%, 27% gain for 2024. >> five will enjoy watching you make the argument. nvidia is still off on the day notably. it's resistant to the selloff at the market. as we know, bitcoin has seen a brutal selloff today as well. almost getting close to $10,000

off now. more than that, actually, if you think about the highs that we reached. more than $50,000 off. we have an economist coming up, and then we are going to talk to greg who is going to talk politics with us. the stock pumpers, let's get on here to talk real tech. brandon murray right here, the world obviously scrambling to get ahead of president-elect donald trump's threatened tariffs, and we seen vague threats on the biggest trading partners. you can see our trade relationships with china, with mexico, with an a, tilray talk about big tariffs. but what about your. a trade war could be sparked by these tariffs and year of could

turn toward china to import more goods. they can import deflation that way. what is the setup look like right now as far as anything we know? do we know anything concrete in terms of tariff plans? >> nothing concrete. the word nike. his uncertainty around tariffs. if cherubs are trump's favorite word, then his least favorite word is uncertainty and that is what they are getting. what we heard from the ecb official was fear about disinflation from china. we often hear that terrorists causing inflation from the u.s. if trump were different tariffs on chinese imports, the flipside of that is deflation, and china has a couple of tools at its disposal if it wants to use in a trade war. he could subsidize borders and reduce the cost of their production and make the cost of their exports go down.

can also let its currency weaken. economists are kind of makes on the degree to which they think other things would happen, but this ecb official we heard today is clearly putting his finger on something that the europeans are worried about. they have a much slower grout -- growth outlook, and he has right to be concerned. >> you are looking at a function on the terminal they can show you how the u.s. trading markets are coming out. >> you guys can have a conversation, i'm just clicking on seeing all the trade partners we have. full of about this is if you kind of change the main bar to china, you can see also just how much china is engraved into the global economy. it's not just china that would be concerned about that kind of slow down the ecb. are there many other countries

that would share that same concern? >> absolutely. china is not just the largest trading partner to germany and others in europe, but it is the number one trading partner to a lot of countries. a full-blown trade war would not just take place between the u.s., china, and europe, it would hit lots of different countries. >> during trump 1.0 we heard so much about china, they tariffs on china. trump didn't want tiktok because obviously the chinese can spy on us with that. now he's happy to have them spy through tiktok. in fact he's going to push to get the tiktok van extended for lifted. and the first buddy elon musk does so much business in china that speculation i hear is that he could be much softer on them

as a trading partner in this trump 2.0 administration. what is your take on that? >> it is something we reported on quite a bit and points to how transactional trump is as an executive and as he was during his first presidency. he will take things case-by-case based on the people we talked to, and something like tiktok, sort of other things that come along, he's going to take case-by-case and he's going to hear out of the arguments on both sides, presumably and make his decision based on what he is best for him politically and for the economy. so we will see. it is not a black or white issue. there is some gray area, and things like tiktok are a good example of that. >> do we have any idea how much of this tariff stuff is just negotiating or real economic policy?

has anybody weighed in who may have the president-elect sphere on this? >> scott bessent. is the poker player sitting across from you bluffing or not bluffing? it is anybody's guess. the answer is really that people take things based on what he thinks are threats to national security. even if he is just putting in negotiating tool out there, it is still having an effect, companies are still stockpiling, so whether it is a bluff or a negotiating tool or not, it is still having economic effect. we were looking at the stated volumes to los angeles and long beach. they are going through the roof right now. it is normally a quiet time of year. it may be a tactic but it is actually affecting the inventory building of companies as we speak. >> but what is the thinking on tiktok?

not to focus too much on that but isn't it generally accepted that it is a threat to national and the trump administration now is ok with that. why has he turned around his thinking on tiktok, is it just such a good platform for his base? >> this is getting to the heart of the different kind of presidency we are going to see coming up starting on january 20. with advisors like elon musk, elon musk has every motivation to make sure that the u.s. and china still do business together. he's got $2 trillion, $2 million mega factory. he wants to sell cars to chinese consumers so i think this is what you are going to see if the softening of some of these positions. >> great to have you on the program, thanks so much for joining us. brandon murray is bloomberg's trade czar and one would assume

there would be a lot to him to do. right now looking at tickets and this is not because we had such a tough time getting seats for msg for the fish run this year. it has been brutal, by the way. because of drew carey review, it has been so hard to get tickets for fish this year. anyway, vivid seats is a full-service ticketing marketplace. it is up 9% and now has been halted. looks like it is set to explore a sale and that is why shares have gone haywire. more on that when we come back. this is bloomberg. k stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working.

you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one.

♪ >> welcome back to open interest, bloomberg intelligence, a mash-up merger of the two. of course, matt has been talking about it is in talks, said to be in talked for a sale. this is a nearly 900 million dollars company now on the rise after a trading halt. it looks like almost 18%, so whatever it is, traders like the deal. let's see how much it goes for at the end of the day. >> i worked on the ticketmaster

live nation deal back in the day. >> you sold your soul to the devil. >> many times, and the check cleared. >> how was your experience with ticketmaster? why doesn't congress do something about it? >> they will. this is the price you get with all fees. you buy a wondered $80 ticket and you end up spending $300. they open up the sale and two minutes later to sold out the force the companies that they own that are ticket resale or's you start to see the scalpers open up. and it is just an absolute ripoff. the biggest concert owner owns the biggest ticket company. my buddy david was like, i've got you covered. this year, no joy.

let's bring in claudia sahm, the new century advisor chief economist, former federal reserve economist as well and a good friend of bloomberg. claudia, let's think about 2025. i've got an economy that i think gets along pretty well. i would like inflation to be a little bit lower but it is reasonable. the labor market, people who want a job generally have a job, they are getting some wage increases. what do you tell your clients about 2025 in this economy? >> don't be complacent. if we could keep it as it is right now largely, this could be another great year ahead of us. we should surprised at how well the last few years have gone particularly when you think about growth. that doesn't have to keep going. what we really want people to focus on are the blind spots. what could go wrong, who isn't

getting enough attention. if i had to point some fed officials to a blind spot, they showed a lot of complacency in their last summary of economic projections on how well the labor market would continue to hold up the we saw them kind of write down the typical official was something that basically have the unemployment rate sticking there is right now for the next three years. that is a pretty remarkable and frankly would be very unusual labor market, and yet there were all kinds of concerns about inflation. i'm still concerned that there are things in the labor market that while good, they don't quite look sustainable. and that is where the problems can come in. >> so if i ask which is a bigger risk, the labor market or stubborn inflation you are going with former? >>'s inflation is fine right now.

we are really not that far from 2% and we've seen a lot of encouraging signs under the hood that we are getting to this last mile on inflation. >> but that's before tariffs, that's before we deport millions of workers. that's before donald trump comes into office, so things could change drastically after january 20. >> absolutely, they could. and i think it is appropriate that we had a very deep conversation about the policies being put on the table. there have been a lot of policies put on the table and it's really important to talk about them of their potential pitfalls and maybe we won't see all of them put into place and that probably would be a good thing for the economy. and yet kind of taking for granted the good stuff that we've got going in the economy that is a little more nuts and bolts like labor market functioning and just saying that will just keep going, that is all fine. that could be a real mistake because the labor market in

particular is always and has been the past few years such a linchpin to this amazing period of disinflation, growth that stays strong and unemployment has stayed relatively low. that is something we want to keep going. i don't think that should be taken for granted. dark out i think i'm very unpopular for asking this question repeatedly, but we got a look at all the risks. if you have to think about potentially inflationary policies and sticky areas of inflation next year, and worries about growth as well, especially if you have kind of a fiscal appetite to pull back, how big of an issue is stagflation or how big of a worry is that question >> there are absolutely paths where we end up in a stagflationary environment where we are a good ways from that point. we're starting from a well above trend growth, and inflation is

relatively low. it is not to percent, but it is relatively low. there are absolutely paths we could go on, and the thing about stagflation is we think about all the different risks and we do need to do that, but some risks come with bigger problems. solving a stagflationary economic environment policy solutions are a lot trickier. the fed are fighting both inflation and trying to keep employment high. in their tools are going to be at odds with each other. so there are some dark corners of economic world that we want to stay away from because if we get there, they are a big problem. i don't think that is the highest probability, but if we get there, it's probably one of the highest probabilities of being a big mess. >>'s how does the consumer look to you? as you pointed out at the top, the consumer held up much better

than we anticipated in 2024 and yet all the savings i would guess are spent off the pandemic era savings. this is a consumer that at least the bottom four quintiles is not well prepared for retirement. the housing market is a tough one to get into if you aren't already, and i guess if you are, that is how you fund your retirement. what is the consumer look like to you right now in the u.s.? >> as a whole, the consumer is still in a good place. as time has gone on, we have seen more strains of lower income households. i keep coming back to the labor market is so essential because for most americans, that is for the money comes from. you need a vibrant labor market that has good, strong weight have seen and good job opportunities.

we've also seen very positive trends with wealthier consumers. the consumer, the demand, we always say don't bet against the american consumer. if they have the means to spend they are going to spend and that is will we have seen the past few years. >> should i be concerned about this weakness in the manufacturing presence? only 30% of the u.s. economy, but what does that tell you, how do you think about that? >> we see not just one more data point of weakness in the manufacturing sector, but we've seen years of what can be seen as contractionary trends in manufacturing. and we have to have a discussion that is more about an economy that just hasn't been based on manufacturing the same way it

had been many decades ago. this is a transition happening very slowly over time, probably one of the discussions that is hardest to have because the trends get put together. and we are having a very robust, and i think part of this policy discussion is going to be centered around the revive the manufacturing sector in the united states, and how do you do it best? we saw a lot of tax incentives and big programs trying to give money to companies to build up manufacturing in a specific sectors, and we may see an approach that is quite different in using tariffs to protect domestic industries and manufacturing. i think it is going to be an ongoing discussion but it really is more about the deep, underlying structure of the u.s. economy and what we want that the underlying structure look like. >> look at the long end of the

curve, and just how much 10 year, 30 year rates have decoupled. how much control does the federal reserve really have over the longer end when you see investors equally concerned about other issues like the fiscal term premium needed? >> the fed never has and never will have full control over the 10 year horizon. the much shorter horizon you can really have a conversation about the fed is very active in what those treasury yields look like. there always are a host of concerns or issues in the u.s. economy that are going to fit into what those treasury yields look like, and i think there's just a lot of action right now. there's a lot of information coming out of the fed in terms of where they think they are going to end up, in terms of potentially ending up with rates, and this whole discussion around the terminal rate for the neutral rate of interest is actually one where it comes out

of their mouths but it is time very much back to the structural features of the economy. and those are things like productivity or concerns about debt sustainability, demographics, other big issues. and those are also issues that the 10 year treasury plays into as well. the fed doesn't control the 10 year treasury. maybe we are seeing potentially some of those links weakening even more because the room is getting very crowded in terms of issues that people in the treasury markets need to absorb, but it's nothing unusual per se. what maybe is more unusual is the big questions out there are about the structure of the economy. are we a strong economy, are we going to the stand and thrive with higher interest rates than we did before the pandemic? and they are very much open questions right now. we are very central to where

those longer data treasury markets will land. >> i have a curveball question for you as an economist. were you at that house in march of 1990 -- i'm kidding. what do you think about the effect of glp 1 drugs on the u.s. economy? we had a listener right in earlier asking why the government doesn't just subsidize these things and save us billions of dollars a year in terms of health care. what do you think about the effect of this drug, have you given any thought? >> i think the way economists, i would probably tie this back into the economic discussion, would be to think about the ability it gives individuals to be more productive as workers. that fits in the broad category of health and all the different

kinds of pharmaceuticals and health care that we have provided and they have access to that can potentially lengthen lives, make them more rich and fulfilling, make them able to save disability rules. a healthier, more productive workforce is one that is going to benefit the economy as a whole. but that is me again being a macro economist, thinking about the labor market as i often do, and there absolutely will be disruption under the hood in terms of winners and losers in the economy from particular industries or particular institutions. and there is an answer to that question, the massive budgetary impacts of medicare or large programs to pick up these kinds of drugs. i think in terms of quality of life and a healthier population,

there is a lot of individual benefits and social benefits from a healthier population as a whole. >> we have to leave it there, thank you so very much for joining us today. expectations changing quickly around the course for next year as well. and happy new year to you. of course, happy holidays. up next we're going to talk about the legacy of the 39th president of the united states, jimmy carter, who passed away. and of course we are also going to expand our conversation around politics because president-elect trump saying that mike johnson has is complete and total endorsement. >> no donald trump values a religious man. >> he sure says he does. that is all up next. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> who is doing this, who is doing the intro here?

welcome us in. >> i'll do it. welcome back to bloomberg television and radio, you are watching that mashup of bloomberg open interest as well as berg intelligence. you have me, paul sweeney, matt miller, and joe mathieu, cohost of balance of power because of course we are talking about the life of jimmy carter, 39th president of the united states who died yesterday. president biden said he will order a state funeral in washington for jimmy carter. he called the former democratic president an extraordinary leader, statesman and humanitarian. down in d.c., how are people remembering jimmy carter today? there's a lot that happened during his tenure that really does roll over in today's politics. >> you're hearing a lot of parallels and justifiably in a lot of cases to the biden administration. a single term president who had to deal with inflation, chaos in the middle east. was coming off a tumultuous time

in the case of jimmy carter, it was watergate. for joe biden, it was donald trump and covid. but i am struck as well just by the life of the man that i think not enough people are talking about here. this is somebody who grew up in a house in plains georgia without electricity or plumbing. he went on to become a graduate of the naval academy, a nuclear physicist, the governor of georgia and the president of the united states and then redefined the whole thing. redefined a post-presidency to something that we consider a standalone entity today. and it is pretty remarkable, 100 years old. he spent over a year in hospice same he did get to vote for kamala harris as he was hoping to. >> i remember him saying he hopes to live long enough to vote for kamala harris. and we are seeing reporting that u.s. stock markets will close to observe a national day of mourning. it's the whole deal. how do you think that is going

to build up between now and january 9? >> i will tell you guys that you have me on to talk about how all things are in washington and how they can't figure out how to get anything done. there is one thing we do really well down here and it is this kind of stuff. i will never forget the pomp and circumstance that surrounded the role of ronald reagan, for. we don't get these too often. he will likely see them break out the case, the tradition that goes all the way back to the civil war with the rider list horse, all this stuff, the black bundt thing that will likely line the route and then of course he will lie in state in the u.s. congress. it was nice to see the remarks not only from joe biden but also with force from donald trump last evening. this would be a bipartisan affair, something that will move you when you watch it. >> donald trump was careful to point out the massive philosophical and political divides between himself and

jimmy carter, although david westin this morning reminded us that carter actually started some of the deregulation that so many people credit ronald reagan for in aviation and beyond. this wasn't a strictly left-leaning sort of central power president when he was in office. >> you're absolutely right about that. for aviation, for a lot of sectors, of course became the ronald reagan street, he was also an outsider. i heard that conversation you had. he was dead on with that description when it comes to paving the road for the donald trump's of the world because this was not a traditional politician. the allman brothers used to do fundraisers for him at their concert. this was a guy who carried his own luggage, with the first to get out of the motorcade on the

inauguration, to walk the parade route outside of the car. he wore a cardigan sweater on national television when he asked people to turn their thermostats down. you know what happened on the roof. you said you listened to seven hours of jimmy carter podcasts. that wasn't in any of them? >> that was not in the ones i listened to. you know, i do want to switch gears a little bit here as well, because there is a lot going on in u.s. politics right now, and we are really less than a month away from inauguration. you are seeing a lot of news coming through the pipe, you are seeing the president elect for example coming out on truth social just today voicing his full support for mike johnson. what was behind that, because there was a little bit of concern under the surface, wasn't there? >> there still is, i think.

on friday, we've got some big stuff going on around here. the start of a new congress is a pretty big deal. you will see images of congress, they bring the kids in, and of course electing your speaker, electing the leader is the first thing you need to do before congress can be sworn in. so there were some worries that mike johnson did not have the votes to make this easy, at least on the first round. this will help a lot. speaker mike johnson is a good, hard-working religious man says donald trump. i don't know where the religion part comes in for him but he says we will do the right thing, we will continue to win. p he has my complete and total endorsement. i suspect that this will keep his gavel intact, but then the hard stuff starts. as soon as congress is sworn in they are going to begin writing legislation on the border and on extending the trump tax cuts not to mention the confirmation hearings for the likes of pete hegseth, tulsa gabbard, rfk jr.

so into january the inauguration that will take place on the 20th, the scaffolding is all set up on both ends of pennsylvania avenue, washington is ready. that is when the wild politics begin. >> i also have a sense year of the response from speaker johnson as well. trump posted on truth social speaker mike johnson then posted on at thanking them, saying he's honored and humbled by his support as always, and putting mike johnson, together we will quickly deliver on the america first agenda and usher in the new golden age of america. the american people demand and deserve that. he wasted no time, let's get to work. quickly delivering the agenda. >> although is it america first when it comes to tiktok? president trump in his first administration, there was bipartisan legislation passed in congress to force the sale of

tiktok because clearly, these social media tools are used as listening devices. in this country obviously google is listening to us, facebook is listening to us, apple is listening to us, but they are american companies. china listens to us through tiktok. i think it is pretty well understood and donald trump used to have a problem with that. now he's not bothered by it. why is donald trump now behind the chinese listening device that is tiktok? >> i would love to hear him really explain this evolution. >> does he have a donor with a big stake in bytedance? >> yes, there is that, and there is also the zuckerberg effect. he didn't want to help mark zuckerberg by doing away with his greatest competitor in tiktok. in the end, he just wants the final word on this. i'm not sure he is emotional one way or the other when it comes

to that end is far congressional agenda goes, there is no agenda. they still have to figure out sequencing. do you do the border first, do you get onto tax cuts? who is going to write legislation? you're going to likely the democrats to make that work. >> as we sit here recognizing how things change in this upcoming administration, is there a to do this from the first 100 days, do you think? >> i just mentioned the two big ones. now that we are arguing over dreamers, what is that going to look like? will that the comprehensive immigration reform? we haven't been able to get that across the finish line. the legal that to a state in mexico policy? a lot of questions about how that is actually going to work and when it comes to the tax cuts, we went through all of these one by one. it's not just extending 2017 legislation. it's no taxes on tips, on

overtime, on social security. our a lot of them, is all about going to get into the same package? and you are going to get democrats to vote for? start out i know you put in a lot of hours, more hours on air than any other anchor at bloomberg media. but joe mathieu, he does a humans effort. balance of power kicks off at noon with him and goes until 2:00, then he comes back. >> that is not happening. could we merge the shows? one longer show? i just listened to every single sentence. catch him on balance of power on bloomberg radio and television. no offense, it is my favorite program. what does he call it? the fastest show on politics?

i love that. speaking of politics, we're going to come back and top talk of agf investments. this is bloomberg.

>> welcome back to bloomberg

television and radio. this is the simulcast special edition of bloomberg open interest and bloomberg intelligence. we have joined paul and his interactive brokers studio. i prefer the set up your tv studios are awesome. sonali: this set up with our music. paul: i know a guy. i will make a phone call. matt: i get to wear jeans is all i know. we are looking at a market that is tanking today. the s&p 500 is not doing as badly as it had been, but it is down 1.3%. down 540 points even without those stocks weighing on it. in terms of the nasdaq 100, that tech heavy index is down one half percent right now, so down

across the board. as you pointed out, it is not because of high rates but it may be those high rates that attracted investors out of stocks because they are buying treasuries. sonali: finally. it has been a few days since we have seen that happen, but not only are you below that 6000 level on the s&p 500, you are also below 5900, so it is interesting to see how much ground we have given up. matt: above 450 on the 10 year. we have had so many yes on who said everything will be ok as long as we do not get to 450 on the 10 year. sonali: fair enough. you have julian emanuel saying you have to look at 475. certainly a lot of markers to keep an eye on in the bond market that could be dangerous for the equity market. paul: we did not have a drawdown

, which is what the kids call a sell off, but to me -- matt: it has worked for the past few years. paul: the story for 2025 has to be earnings. if the earnings are not there, then you are in trouble. double digit because the fed is not going to be there for you as much as we originally thought. matt: in terms of individual movers and shakers, there are winners today. they've it seats -- vivid seats is one. it is a stock a lot of people had never heard of. >> it is exploring a sale after receiving takeover interest, reported by our colleagues here. shares surged on the news and trading was temporarily halted. it is trading again and up about 38%. this company went public back in

2021 and has had a pretty bad run since then. shares after the news were down 40% in the past year and the company is working with an advisor to gauge interest from potential auditors. >> to the point matt was making the bears have not survived this market. you have seen the bulls not be bullish enough. next year, you still have range bound thinking but what are the risks? are people walking in nervously next year? >> consensus targets into next year imply a return of about 12% over the coming year on the heel of back-to-back gains of more than 20% for the s&p 500. that has not happened since the dot-com bubble the s&p gained more than 20% for four years in a row.

the bullishness comes after strategists were wrong for two years, three years if you think about when they were trying to anticipate this post-pandemic market and economy. no one really saw the route that happened and then they went into the last couple years with cautiousness and they should not have been cautious. no one could have predicted this bifurcated market where just a handful of names were accounting for so much of the s&p 500. if you go back to the index in october 2022, the top 10 names account for about 60% of the s&p 500. matt: it takes buyers and sellers to make a market. we cast a broad net when we interview strategists. how many of the strategists we survey expect the market to fall in 2025? >> just about nobody. barry bannister is the only

contrarian but pretty much everyone is bullish into next year and jp morgan, which has held onto his 4200 targets, they are optimistic. i had a conversation with the chief market strategist. he says he thinks risks are to the upside and says there are three puts into next year. you have the trump put, fed put, and china put. we are not seeing that materialize into the final stretch of 2024. people are getting nervous with uncertainty around policy. paul: when i was a salomon brothers in the late 1990's, we had a bearish strategist, the only one on wall street. he was out of a job the next day. matt: was it tall paul's short friend? paul: no.

thank you. we appreciate that. president-elect donald trump's offering is complete and total endorsement to speaker mike johnson as he works off a potentially crippling leadership fight in the house that threatens to slow his agenda. a chief u.s. apology strategist joins us now. what is the position of president-elect trump as he gets ready to take office january 20? >> it is incredibly uncertain. it depends on who you talk to what time of the day. we have to raise the debt ceiling. are we going to -- who are we going to have a speaker of the house? these stories change almost by the hour and we are all going to have to get used to uncertainty for the next four years. sonali: if you have uncertainty over the next four years, where would it be the most?

there are issues investors are keeping an eye on and we talk a lot about tariffs here. that is one of the places we do not know the plan yet, but how do you think about this in terms of where the president-elect will spar with congress? >>'s promises have been so grandiose that he has to sort of stand up for what he has said. i think on inauguration day we will talk about tariffs. i think he has to move on that against china, canada, and other countries and immigration. he has to move on that. failure to do what he has promised would set him up for mockery and embolden people like elon musk. matt: i will chime in on something i have not brought up yet. donald trump thomas -- promised to get rid of the state and local tax deduction cap that he put on in the 2017 tax cuts and

jobs act. as we all know, before trump came into office you could write off your state and local taxes from your federal filing. he said he is going to get rid of that cap you put into place. what do you think the likelihood of that is? >> i bet you live in new jersey. i think it is going to be an issue that he will have problems with for the simple reason we cannot afford all that stuff. if you look at what he has promised in the last six months, a tax break for waiters and waitresses and the state and local taxes, all sorts of things that i think will in a people in this very fiscally conservative house. people say trump and johnson get along. i am not so sure about that. johnson can only afford to lose one or two votes and the freedom

caucus have an issue if people in the reno caucus who live in texas or florida may have a big issue with a salt tax. >> one of the big issues that will probably be a day one issue will be migration and perhaps deportation of certain illegal immigrants. how do you think that is going to play out? >> i think trump and elon musk and ramaswamy will have to align. it will be difficult with the trump base. i think steve bannon will be that base and say we do not want any immigration, but that is not practical. there are areas in our economy that need people and i think trump is going to have to moderate his tone on this. matt: trump has said he is in favor of the h-1b reasons.

he goes up against laura leumi and maybe margaret taylor green on that, but it seems as if it is a fairly easy position to hold because those are not people stealing american jobs. the problem is you cannot fill those jobs to begin with. >> the problem is the uncertainty. is he going to stick to this -- his guns on the debt ceiling? people i talked to last week were incredulous that he would inject the issue of the debt ceiling, a hammer the republicans can use later in the year, that he is going to inject it now. it complica when we are talkingh the immigration issue, you did see a fracturing in certain parts of the further right part of the republican party where you did see differences in

opinion, vocal differences. is it too early to ask how this would play out in the midterms? >> know that is a good question. it is not too early. i think it is going to confuse people so much that it is going to give democrats enthusiastic by spring that they have a chance to regain control the house and senate. >> taking that further, if i am part of the washington bureaucracy and i'm going to be there 10 years from now, 20 years from now in my department, do i treat this administration as a lame-duck administration? >> probably not yet. people who underestimate trump do so at their own peril. i think trump will have some successes, but he cannot keep changing his line every week or so. that is going to sasser -- exasperate people and keep --

cost him the most important thing a politician has, political capital. i think his political capital in the last 10 or 15 days has taken a hit. sonali: thank you for your time. you might have missed it. this is another question. late friday night, you had janet yellen sending a letter to congressional leaders saying when the new debt limit is going to come to the surface and the window is around inauguration. so that is another thing to watch out for in the coming weeks with those debt disputes coming back to the surface. matt: i'm surprised you do not have a drumroll button. paul: i will put a ticket in for that. matt: we are going to come back and talk more about what is going on in these markets. we continue to drop and we are

now down more than 2% for the month of december. we were supposed to see a santa claus rally and it did not come to fruition, at least not yet. we are still up 25% and change this year. we are going to talk about the big winners and losers today, particularly focused on boeing, those shares down 2.5%. they were done earlier after the terrible plane crash in south korea that was a boeing 737 800 whose landing gear failed to deploy, killing 170 nine people. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> 2024 is now the deadliest year in commercial aviation

since 2018. there was a disaster in south korea over the weekend. a boeing 737 was lost, killing all but two of the 181 people on board. there's a lot of talk -- talk of bird strike complicating things, but the real problem it seems is that lending gear was not deployed before the crew rushed to get the plane on the ground and it slid into an embankment. let's bring in george ferguson. what seems to have been the reason for the failure to deploy the landing gear? was it just human error? george: we are going to need to get all the extra reports in and this is early days. and there a bit of speculation from what we are going to tell

you here, but i will tell you on that boeing 737 there is triple redundancy in the hydraulic system to lower the landing gear and of all that fails there is a cable that allows you to manually lower the landing gear. without damage on the undercarriage it is hard to imagine the gear would not have deployed even in that manual procedure. it feels to me -- i am on the ground, cognizant of the fact the crew were operating under stressful conditions, but from a more leisurely manner unfortunately what we see is a crew that looks like it was rushing to get the airplane on the ground and what i hear from professionals in the industry is the seven minutes they took after missing the initial approach where there was a bird

strike to try to get that airplane landed -- it is just not enough time to go through the checklist they should have gone through if they were having some sort of hydraulic problems and could not lower the gear, so it feels like carpet management is a lot of the problem in this crash. to our viewers, i have a hard time bringing this back to a boeing problem. we are sorrowful about what happened here, but we do not think it looks like something that is going to go back to boeing as a manufacturer problem. sonali: can you explain what could have happened in regards to the bird strike? how often does that happen? george: aviation engines are designed to take bird strikes. if it is a big enough bird strike, engines could get knocked out, so we saw the story

over the hudson where birds knocked both engines out and had to put the airplane in the river. typically you get an engine out on one side because of a bird strike or the bird will pass through, but even some of the preliminary information we are hearing is that the airplane was in landing approach at 150 plus miles per hour, indicating the engines were still turning at that point. there are situations i hear from pilots where you can get smoke in the cockpit or cabin depending on what engine ingested a bird and that can be disconcerting for pilots and passengers and get you to hustle processes and try to get an airplane on the ground as fast as possible. matt: have we heard anything from boeing today? >> i have not heard anything yet. i'm sure they will cooperate and not say much until the

investigation is conducted. this airplane wasn't service for 15 years, so would have gone through heavy checks where they check every system out in the airplane. the landing gear was probably replaced in that time, so taking anything back to boeing does not seem to me to be likely. if there is any issue, it could be a maintenance issue but it makes me think this was a crew that was moving fast to get the airplane on the ground when maybe they should have been doing slower. i was not in the cockpit, so i'm not faulting them. matt: kind of a tough ending to a tough number of years for boeing and i always wonder -- this is such a great american company and you always ask yourself, when is the bottom? when does the bad news end so i

can buy this stock? but it seems to always be something. where are we in the boeing story and getting back on track? >> i think we are at the reemergence of manufacturing. the strike and every thing that has happened this year -- i think it is all this year. largely looks to be behind boeing, so from a bloomberg intelligence perspective we are looking for them -- they have started the production process of the 737, which is the most important airliner for them and we think they will see a 45% increase in deliveries of that airplane across the year. we think he is not going fast and restarting the factory, so we anticipate they should be

able to get more deliveries out the door this year. in 2025. so we think that is the beginning of improving cash flow and profitability, so we are looking for a better 2025. matt: is there any possibility that some other aircraft money fracture or could come in and challenge this decades-old duopoly? is there anybody -- is there any spacex out there that cannot boeing off its airplane manufacturing -- i do not know what to call it. george: there is one. it is hard to break into this business. they tried it with the c series and we saw what happened to that. it was sold back to airbus for a

dollar. there is one company i think can. it is in the process of doing it, but the ramp up has been slow. they have a competitor of the 737 being delivered into fleas in china and it will take them time to learn how to support that airplane in the field and longer to sell it outside of china and compete with the duopoly, except the chinese market may not be as important this year. i still think they are probably fully a decade away from really competing but that is what is going to break the duopoly. i do not see other manufacturers breaking this duopoly. sonali: if you are just watching what has been happening to not just boeing but what happened in south korea, it has felt

dangerous to fly lately. >> it is still very safe to fly on commercial airlines. >> yes, there have been a significant number of accidents, some very jarring. has that scared anybody away? >> there are always people that are scared of flying. it is a bit of an unnatural act. so it is not good to have accidents like this but i think what we see is the industry is safe. i think still safer than driving your car but i have not done the statistics this year on it. >> 318 people have died in commercial crashes this year. how many people have flown on a plane? >> i remember growing up. i am getting to be up there in years now, but when i was a younger man there would be

accidents from windshear, there will be a couple every year in the u.s. alone, so the industry has come a long way. it is about manufacturing tolerances, training, and safety. i think it seems like there is a rush in this cockpit. i come back to the idea that there is a generational transfer of knowledge going on in many industries, including ours and it will be about training future pilots and everything to be supersafe. >> great as always. george ferguson covers aerospace companies, including boeing. this is bloomberg. ♪

> welcome back to bloomberg intelligence/open interest. matt miller here in the interactive brokers studio. we are invading paul sweeney's territory. it is simulcast. welcome to the program. if you are listening on sirius xm >>, we welcome io. channel 121. matt: if you are watching on bloomberg.com, we appreciate you.

there are so many ways to adjust this content. paul: tom is all over the content. he engages with our viewers on youtube live chat. >> that is one thing i have not gotten into. i will not be able to pay attention anymore. i am excited because we are going to talk about cars, but we will start talking about what is elon musk doing? in germany, he has written an op-ed, supporting the afd. this is the far right party in germany. germany is one country where you do not want to support the far-right typically. they have had issues with the far-right in germany. with whom many would compare the afd but i will not go there today. he has put his support behind the afd, interesting move from

elon musk. i would say many people give that a low grade. a high grade will be given to the support he has put behind donald trump because it has won him so much influence. if anyone ever tells you you cannot buy power in washington, show them elon musk. how much did he donate the trump campaign? in hundred $40 million? sonali: that includes others in the republican party as well, but it is in the hundreds of millions, his total political donations this year was a lot. can we also talk about this story? matt: that money has bought him so much influence starlink has become successful. sonali: spacex has added more than 20 nations, including ghana and argentina. it now serves more than 4 million people in 100 plus countries and territories, to

say nothing of starlink as well where the closest to governments is giving him more access in terms of how the service is being used, including his own place of birth, south africa. matt: we have a story here tallying the amount of money he has made in terms of donations. elon musk, who does have $468 billion in wealth, donated at least $274 million to political groups in 2024, making him the most prolific donor of the election cycle. the majority of those donations went to his super pac, which spent $159 million to support donald trump's presidential campaign. sort of won himself the copresident c. it has not done much for tesla demand. i was wondering if he was trying

to get the right wing pros on board -- bros on board with green visa. -- green ev's. i regionally drove a gmc sierra which was a phenomenal vehicle. sonali: i would tell you it has lost some of the trump bump. some of it has been given up, but the day before the election you had it trading at under 250 a share. it is now at 420 a share, so you have seen still a significant surge in stock regardless of what fundamentals or data would tell you. paul: it is worth one point $4 trillion. let's look at general motors. that is worth $59 billion. look at ford worth $39 billion. >> you are doing the analysis

every auto analyst is doing. matt: tesla is worth more than every other carmaker in the world combined. sonali: a lot of investors are not looking at it as just a carmaker. i am looking at what it would mean for them to integrate more ai. what can it do for tesla's i do not know. i just got my first car in my adult life and i'm excited. basic gps is the most exciting technology. matt: let's bring in the car tsar. he ran our auto coverage out of detroit and tokyo and now out of london globally. he knows more than anybody else we employ about this business. first, on the valuation, it cannot be x ai because i do not

see what chatgpt is going to do to make the cyber truck a more pleasant experience. why is tesla worth more than one point $3 trillion? >> the ai story is something tesla has emphasized for some time. he has staged several ai days at this point and it has been on the tip of his tongue before the emergence of chatgpt, so even if a search function is not necessarily going to be a game changer for your cyber truck i think a lot of this is about optimism around ability to come in his words, solve self-driving. this is something he has been talking about for years now and for years has proven optimistic

about his abilities to do that solving and i think he himself has referred to himself as the guy -- the boy who cried fst -- fsd, standing for full self-driving. he has a little fun at his own expense about the fact that he is overly optimistic about this, but i think the market does see emergence of president-elect trump, who has been his biggest benefactor was elon musk, that elon musk is going to get return in the form of looser regulation around this technology. matt: did you see the news? he said the first tesla. driving cannonball run record. >> going across the country using the technology. i think it is an interesting

show of force of the capabilities and limits of the technology because i think he actually has a podcast that i would recommend for in-depth analysis of the subject and the fact it may be a sort of driver convenience feature but i think the jury is still out on how soon it is going to be replacing us as drivers and how quickly we will be able to count on our tesla basically entering a fleet as sort of a rolling airbnb for people to borrow. paul: as we exit 2024, what is the industry call on ev's in terms of where we think altman demand is going to be? it feels like it took a hit this

year. >> 2024 was a realization that the transition is not going to be smooth. there were skeptics of how quickly ev's could grow and how capable the industry would be of maintaining momentum, but by and large for years now they have exceeded expectations. i think that changed in 2024, where even the hottest car company in the world is not tesla. i would point to china's byd. the reason they are growing is not pure electric vehicles. it is extended range vehicles that rely on a small internal combustion engine to get people over range anxiety and worries about running out of juice, so we have seen big slowdowns in

europe and also we will have real doubts to overcome in 2025 about with in ev sales can keep growing in the u.s. if and when president-elect trump pulls back support and does away with the incentives, which his position team has talked openly about. matt: is it possible that president trump throws away some climate change regulation that has held back manufacturers from building big motors? germany has regulated itself into a recession. the entire european economy is a flop and a lot of it because of the green initiatives that have been taken, putting them at a disadvantage. do you see any of that regulation being turned back? craig: it is not just the $7,500 purchase tax credit that could go away.

it is also the stick. it is about fuel economy regulations, which the biden administration toughened from the pulling back that trump did in his first four years, so i think this is an industry that does not turn on a dime, that does product planning at least six years out and you have a situation where this may be was a relief for ford years ago. they have invested significant sums, so will it be a relief for them and that maybe they will not have to buy ev credits from a company like tesla? maybe to some degree, but some state policies will stay in place so they will have to continue to sort of plow ahead

with electric vehicle investments despite the fact that there will almost certainly be loosening in u.s. policy. sonali: outside of the u.s., i think matt was not here for one of the conversations around a merger. matt: i question the use of the term merger when it is an acquisition. i don't know why that word was printed. sonali: now it looks like nissan investors might be concerned about what they are going to get out of the deal. craig: the big concern is what honda will get out of it and whether nissan investors will be disappointed in what honda is one to offer because of nissan. you have seen volatility in

nissan trading. you are looking at what has happened to stock. it absolutely is going to continue to be volatile into 2025 because these are two companies talking about trying to close a deal sometime in august of 2026, so there is a lot of opportunity for this to go sideways, for nissan in the event that they continue to struggle, how much is honda willing to come to their rescue without significant give in terms of the share ratio of what goes into this holding company they are looking to set up? matt: what does nissan have that honda does not? paul: honda is the bigger player. matt: and they have all the same product offerings with the exception of a giant like the armada.

otherwise, you have to cancel everything nissan makes. paul: craig trudell covers all of the auto stuff over in london. coming up, where are we traveling for 2025? i can tell you where i am traveling. aruba. and vegas. a little ski trip with the boys in colorado and in the fall. matt: you are hitting it hard. paul: we are going to talk about that coming up. that will be interesting. where are we traveling? airlines are doing well. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i am looking at the>>

function on the bloomberg terminal that gives the energy commodities and that kind of stuff. i view bitcoin as a commodity. matt: then why is it not on the global commodities? >> i view it as a currency because he told me that. he thinks about it as a commodity with a fixed supply and warn use cases creates more demand. matt: but you use the currency. paul: i have talked to mike on the fourth floor. he is working on it. tom is working on it. sonali: i suppose it depends on how you use it. split the difference. paul: i just kind of speculate it. he covers all the commodities for us. i love to get your big theme outlook for 2025. where are you going this year? >> for commodities, most are

going toward deflation. crude oil and copper will go up. the u.s. stock market has to go up. we have to have more stimulus from china. the market is dependent on those things, which means risks are down. i think gold will be one of the best performers. a key thing for gold to accelerate is if bitcoin keeps backing down from that threshold of around $100,000. sonali: let's check on goal because it is not that all precious metals have risen with gold. what has gold gotten that others do not? you think about lithium. why is gold sticking out so much? is it because of central banks buying it? >> you nailed it. gold has the deepest pockets on the planet buying it. this is the fourth year in a row there has been etf outflows and

inflows into bitcoin, which might shift next year. it has geopolitics in its favor. we see rising geopolitical tensions with china and russia cozying up. that is good for gold and i think that will continue. the significance for gold to accelerate is there is competition for bitcoin, if that curtails, and from the u.s. stock market and interest rates. if the u.s. stock market help -- backs up, we will get a 10% correction next year. that should accelerate for gold. next year we will have the first year of gold etf inflows and that might come in the back of risk assets so the key thing for this year, when the rock beats stocks, the s&p 500 is 25%, that is not a good sign for the global economy.

matt: i wonder about oil. we are looking at continued low prices and donald trump wants to cut regulations undrilled more. we have already gotten more oil out of the ground in this country than before. >> all your internal combustion vehicles and home eating -- heating oil prices will go lower, but the bottom line's pre-existing trends. we have excess supply. the u.s. has to export just to break even compared to 2010. that is increasing and we have to look at opec supply cuts so the next way to look at crude oil is about $70 a barrel. it is more likely to go to 40 than 100. it will take some kind of geopolitical event. the average cost of a gallon of

gasoline in this country will probably head toward two dollars and you need something to shift for that to go higher and a key thing to offset this excess of supply is lower prices. to me, that is the trend. we have mr. trump coming in and the trend has been lower. the question is how low does it get? sonali: a volatile time in commodity markets and some standup performance for some assets. we will switch gears. it is time to start thinking about travel. i know paul sweeney already has been. it has been a big year for travel already. you see it in the equity market for certain types of travel stocks, but how are people thinking about next year? where are they finding the most bang for their buck? >> such a good question.

we just did a where to go list that has 25 places to think about with this price prediction, so if you are like i do not know about want to go to japan or bangkok, you can price flights from your city and figure out the most economically viable trip to take. >> are people going to vegas, paris, stuff on the beaten path? or are they doing different stuff, quirky stuff? >> they are having fun adventures this year. people will always go to greece. there are some grease hotspots. if you want to go to a place where flights are just worth your while, go to japan. flights are down 20% in general. and you cannot find that kind of price drop in any other place,

so bang for your buck, go to japan. there is fantastic hotel news there. you can go to kyoto and bangkok, just awarded world's best hotel. there is a lot of stuff happening in osaka. people used to just go to tokyo and now they are spreading out and especially if you are paying with dollars it goes further. sonali: i was just about to ask that. sherry was in town last week and said the dollar goes a long way in japan now. how much are people saying that in places around the world? is the dollar a reason to travel now? >> it really is. do not even have to bring your big wallet wherever you go, but if you are looking for one place that is bang for your buckeye would say japan. if you like to eat sushi, you will get a really good deal.

in new york, emile will cost a couple hundred dollars -- a meal will cost you a couple hundred dollars. in japan can you can have a fantastic meal for less than $100. matt: i go for the horse leather jackets. they are unbeatable, not to mention the genes construction that you can get from samurai. even t-shirts. let's talk about going to see something cool. the big stuff like the seven wonders of the world. our people going to cairo? is it dangerous to travel over there? >> going to egypt -- egypt is one of our where to go 2025 places. it is beautiful. the history is deep. you have to watch what is happening with current events, but in general it is a place to put on your list for 2025.

it is a place i want to go next year here and i also want to bangkok. if you're a white lotus fan, season three is filmed there. you might have heard about it. they just went through a $90 million renovation. they have two pools on the river now. if you go, you will see some scenes from white lotus season three were shot there. paul: that is what you need to do. matt: i am going to tunisia. -- indonesia. there is a small ego resort -- eco resort. you have to fly to jakarta and take a five hour boat so it is -- it takes two days to get there but it is the best diving in the world. >> jakarta is interesting.

they have a good restaurant there called august and it was on the world's 50 best list and got so much attention that now people are extending their trips. it used to be a place where you just want to do business. there is a restaurant that has changed the economy of the city a little bit. people are booking an extra night to go to the restaurant. >> that is a good tip. i will take it. talking to us about travel in 2025. paul is looking forward to it. you are going to be here at work. sonali: i will be all over the place. we will talk about it another time. paul: she is not giving us hers. matt: because then people will be there waiting for her. does that wrap it up for us? it has been fantastic. should we do it again tomorrow?

we will do it again tomorrow. bloomberg intelligence and open interest joining forces. this is bloomberg. ♪ i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right.

he gets it. yeah. let's go boys. the way that i approach work, post fatherhood, has really been trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families, like my own. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. ♪ ♪

>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of power.