♪ >> welcome to bloomberg markets and happy new year. coming up on the program, stocks looking to rebound after closing out the year with or straight days of declines. excuse me, the u.s. is on high alert following a pair of holiday attacks. the latest from the white house on what is being done to keep people safe. and here is tesla under pressure as annual ev sales fall for the first time in more than a decade. but first let's show you what is going on in the financial markets. stocks and bonds that open with modest gains that we have since seen the gains in the bond market fade.

s&p 500 of one third of 1%. the 10 year yield now inching higher by two basis points but still very much in that 4.5% range. the dollar was a story of strength in 2024 that continues to be at the start of 2025. you can see the dollar stronger and of course there is continued political uncertainty in canada, whether prime minister justin trudeau given to internal pressure in his party and step down. and a quick glance at emerging markets, that is on the verge of a correction, down about 9.9% the past three months. the latest catalyst was the week pmi print in china. but let's go back to equities in the u.s. and zero in on some midday movers. as i mentioned earlier, tesla missed analyst projections resulting in the first annual vehicle sales drop in more than a decade. the stock losing ground. we are going to have more on this later on. alphabet is getting a small

lift. alphabet getting a downgrade, however, from market form, saying that possible antitrust penalties will significantly impact revenue stream search. and crypto related names on the move as bitcoin extends its rally. seeing gains like microstrategy and others, pretty sizable gains at that. and finally let's take a look at uber, higher on a flurry of market analyst, jmp downgrading the stock to market perform. there are concerns about the transition to a taunus, but then you have goldman sachs reportedly adding it to the u.s. conviction list. wall street predictions for the year ahead are typically defined by a number of economic indicators, but for 2025 the outlooks are dominated by one person, donald trump at his return to the white house. justina lee and her team report from over 50 financial institutions and adjusting the

us now with more. what is different this time around is there is an unusual degree of consensus from the reports that you surveyed. walk us through the first point of consensus. >> usually you get a wide range of expectations but it is interesting that this year most strategist seem to be pretty sure that u.s. assets are still the place to be, and i think that is a particularly interesting call, given that they always complain about how concentrated the u.s. market is or how how the -- or how high valuations are. it seems like a lot of people are still putting their calls behind momentum, behind the idea that at the end of the day, the trouble america first policy will be better for american assets and the rest of the world and of course, u.s. stocks are uniquely situated to benefit from the boom. >> that american exceptionalism continues, but even so there is a lot of weakness overseas, so it is kind of like the u.s. looks better relative to other

markets, other economies. when it comes to the unpredictably of a president trump, you've got to look at tariffs. what are people saying with regards to whether we are going to get the worst-case scenario or whether this is all just a negotiating stance for the president-elect? >> that is a really tough question because you are not only having to think about how companies and consumers will react to tariffs, but also what will donald trump say, will he do what he said he would do? and i think most wall street economists still think that the tariff rates he floated during the campaign are more of a negotiating tactic and when it comes to implementation it will not be that bad. but at the end of the day, higher tariffs will be inflationary, but also particularly damaging to a lot of export-dependent economies. i'm thinking about the euro zone. germany in particular and also china.

and i think that also kind of underscores why american exceptionalism is still the theme this year in these parts. >> and for that reason a lot of people expect further strengthen the u.s. dollar at least in the first part of 2025. as well as this idea that inflation will not go away. >> that is a bit risk for this year because a lot of the equity market optimism or the idea that you should buy small and mid-caps is based on the optimism that at least inflation and interest rates are gradually going down. but if we do get a crackdown on immigration, higher tariffs combined with the boost in demand from fiscal easing at tax cuts, you're kind of getting the squeeze on both the demand and supply side and in that case, will beget another wave of inflation? that would be a big risk to

equity markets. >> really appreciate -- appreciate you joining us from london in bloomberg news. thank you so much. we are going to take a deeper dive into the outlook for markets with chris, co. chief investment officer. happy new year to you. always a pleasure speaking with you. talk a little bit about where you see things standing when it comes to inflation because you talk about how there is kind of a tug-of-war here, a battle between deflationary forces as well as inflationary forces. >> and this includes the deflationary force as well as possible government cost-cutting to deal with the regulation. that is against some of the inflationary forces that we just mentioned. tariffs, tax cuts, and deportation. that is the battle this year. i think inflation will remain stubborn, although not at levels

we saw the last couple years. we could be entering a new goldilocks period. >> what with this new one look like compared to the last goldilocks period? how would it differ? >> some of the underpinnings are different. there's always uncertainty in the world politically, economically, but we have more questions than usual this go around, even though the incoming president is the same one that presided over the last goldilocks periods. the problem is the market is discounted a very favorable scenario where the public got at habits skis tour the end of 2024. scarlet: especially when you look at the price earnings for a lot of the cap names. justine a was talking about this optimism and of course as a valued guy, you are looking to that as well. but every single time we seen small caps gain a little bit of momentum, it seems to out pretty quickly. what is needed for them to

sustain the advance? >> we've seen several rotational fall start over the last couple of years including the one that began around the election and petered out in december. i think we need a soft landing. but i think smaller companies, domestic companies are set to disproportionately benefit from trump policies. that is, they tend to be less exposed to some of the trade rhetoric on one hand and more exposed to the forces of tax cuts and deregulation. and then obviously the starting point is much lower. valuation gap between large and small is the biggest in decades. small caps we are about half the return of large caps last year. so we are seeing some value in that part of the market. >> you talk about deregulation and tax cuts and those are two things that investors are certainly counting on from the incoming administration.

but in addition they are also looking ahead to a lot of dealmaking. i'm wondering how much these small and mid-cap names will be the beneficiaries of dealmaking. >> that's a great point and we certainly think that 2025 will be the year of deals. obviously dealmaking has been down the last couple of years partly because of higher interest rates but also because of the justice department and the other federal agencies. i expect much more openness on the part of the federal government dealmaking and we have some stabilization obviously in rates and a lot of pent-up demand and need for consolidation in certain areas. very often smaller companies tend to be the targets of those deals. >> i want to talk about deals when it comes to the media sector because you managed the medium fund even following for a while now and i look at warner bros. discovery and it had a banner november, of 29%. it kind -- kind of held onto those gains and only added 1%.

and a lot of that is predicated on this idea that warner bros. discovery is getting ready to perhaps do some deals as well. david oz love talking about how he is separating legacy and the growth business, but he's not necessarily going down the same path as comcast with a company that is spinning off in the public markets. how do you see these two shaping up and working together or perhaps moving into different directions, but with the same idea that they will be making deals. >> certainly the media area is one industry that i alluded to that is in need of consolidation, in need of greater scale to compete with the tech giants and with the changed landscape for consumers, and we started to see the beginnings of that in 2024. we will see what they do, comcast as you mentioned potentially spinning off their cable network business. doing some internal restructuring which should allow them, if they choose, to

actually give us financial engineering like a spinoff or just some dealmaking. it is going to be inactive year and we could certainly envision some of the cable network roots getting together whether that is streaming services combining or combining their cash cow traditional cable networks. >> and how much are these media companies looking to the example of how at&t managed the decline of directv by selling a big steak to tpp as kind of the example what they want to do with their own legacy businesses? >> the question for a lot of traditional media companies is how you manage melting ice cubes? these are still businesses generating enormous amounts of cash flow, they are just not growing. in fact they are declining in most cases. we will see what the trajectory of cord cutting looks like over the next couple of years. my guess is it will slow down, decelerate over time, but one of

the ways to get there is through cost-cutting and that can happen with scale. it's also putting different capital structures on them and ultimately these businesses are probably going to end up in the hands of private equity, but perhaps there is an intermediate step where they are publicly owned in some different form. >> always appreciate joining us today, co-chief investment officer of value. great to see you and happy new year. coming up on bloomberg markets, u.s. steel got a big lift before the new year after nippon steel offered a deal sweetener to the u.s. government. we will have all the latest details.

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scarlet: the proposed 12.3 billion dollars acquisition of u.s. steel did move a step closer to being resolved. to the latest details i want to welcome john harney. i look at u.s. steel share prices and on tuesday, soaring almost 10%. today it is pretty much a little change, so holding onto that advance. what is the latest and how did we get here? >> well, we have a new year but still no decision from president joe biden on this acquisition. biden wants to know if nippon steel can go forward. fighting has given every indication that he doesn't like it, and will probably say no, but hasn't said that flat out.

so we are waiting, but the time is getting short. he had 15 days from the 23rd of december to say yes or no. of course beyond that, the company is basically the government in court. >> wheel that nippon steel send a new proposal and a final bid for support. what are the main issues that nippon steel is trying to address and that the u.s. is still not moving on? >> they did, and the government of japan has implored the biden administration to prove this. and don't forget, there are many issues here. of course, basically it is like foreign ownership of an iconic american company that has long been associated with the country's industrial life. so there's a lot of feeling about that.

that is why this whole deal drag to the american presidential election. so it is essentially foreign ownership, i'd say, of an american company even though this company is based in japan, which is an outlier. adversary. >> i guess in this last-ditch proposal, nippon steel proposed giving the u.s. government a veto over any reduction to u.s. steel production capacity. we know that biden faces this 15 minute -- 15 day, excuse me, deadline which should put us at january 7 for a final decision. what are his options if he doesn't do anything and he kicks it over to the incoming administration? >> that's very unlikely. i suppose he could do that, but that sort of thing just doesn't really happen.

i don't think he would want president-elect trump to be making those decisions. the trump administration, if he says no, but u.s. steel and nippon steel have said we will see you in court, and then it would be up to the trump administration to make whatever legal decisions they are going to make, as his case moves into the legal realm. scarlet: right. so when it comes to the support of union workers, the leader of united steelworkers we know is firmly opposed to this nippon steel bid, but it is not universal because there are some members of the union that are supportive of it. so biden likes to call himself the most pro union president in history, but it is not like there is universal support among the rank-and-file for opposing the deal. >> not at all. nippon steel and u.s. steel have made arguments, so far not

persuasive, to the people, the regulators and the politicians need to say yes, that this would forge an alliance, industrial alliance that competes with china. but i should say there have been union members and some business leaders and officials in pennsylvania and elsewhere who say yes, we should go forward. but so far they are in the minority. president biden seems to be against it, kamala harris is against it and donald trump is against it. scarlet: one thing the three can all agree on. john hardy is a bloomberg news editor joining us from washington. coming up a rise in national security fears after two new year's attacks. we are at the white house with the latest on the response.

♪ scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." a deadly pair of attacks first in new orleans and then an explosion of a tesla cybertruck outside of donald trump hotel in las vegas. the fbi speaking moments ago saying the suspect in new orleans acted alone and so far there is no linkage to the cybertruck explosion in vegas. with get the latest from tyler kendall who joins us live from the white house. what else can you tell us about what the fbi was willing to disclose? >> i'm here at the white house were president biden just touched down in the last 10 minutes. we are being told he is being ushered into the situation room so he can eat with his national security team to get an update on these two incidents. we are expecting an update once that briefing is over. as you mentioned the fbi

briefing, last hour, president biden had came out previously saying there were no direct links between these attacks. the fbi saying at this exact moment there is no definitive link when it comes to them. when i can tell you in the law enforcement officials in las vegas that confirmed that they are actually working closely with elon musk on that investigation, citing hours of footage that must has turned over to them from tesla charging stations around the country so they can track the vehicles whereabouts up until the point of the explosion. the series of posts earlier, elon musk said that it wasn't necessarily the cybertruck itself exploded, rather that they believe fireworks put into the truck bed that ultimately led to that destruction. of course we are still awaiting word on emotive. questions are being raised whether or not this was a political scheme considering it happened outside the trump international hotel in las vegas. >> and a lot of questions about

whether it is connected. the fbi has been clear that so far it isn't but there are a number of commonalities which invite a lot more introspection including the fact that both perpetrators are poorly served in the u.s. military and that both vehicles were rented through a car sharing app. >> right, and the car sharing app has come out saying there is not necessarily a connection, they regret any involvement or maybe linked to the platform but at this moment, the fbi is saying that there is no definitive link between bank. i can tell you that security is starting to ramp up, particularly here in washington. d.c. police have put out a statement saying that they are going to start heightening security around the nation's capital as we are expecting a busy few weeks here, particularly ahead of january 6 when congress will certify and count the electoral college votes and then of course ahead of january 20 when president-elect trump will be sworn in during his inauguration. scarlet: absolutely. can you give us a little bit more information regarding what

we know about the attack in new orleans? the perpetrator in this idea that perhaps there might be cooperators even though as far as we know righte. >>is moment they are saying that the suspect acted alone. the fbi says this is still very preliminary in their investigation. we know that president biden is being briefed by his national security team right now and we are going to have to wait to see if any further developments come out of that. of course the fbi previously saying that they were going to look into the potential here of how this is related to any acts of terrorism. i can also tell you that congressional republicans are starting to speak out about this, demanding further answers here, asking for a swift transfer of information. congressional leaders like incoming senate majority leader john through and saying this is actually necessary for them to have a swift confirmation hearing for some of president-elect trump's national security picks that they can ensure that they have the right intelligence sharing when it

comes to these events and we will have to see how all that shakes up as we are gearing up for some pretty contentious fight on capitol hill. scarlet: especially with the confirmation hearings for those nominees. very quickly, so far nothing canceled in terms of the big events for january. >> not as of now. i can tell you from where i am at the white house that barricades are already starting to go up for that inauguration on january 20. we are expecting it to go off as planned. the secret service has cited as a high-risk event, so that means they are going to be bringing in law enforcement agents from around the country to help secure the nation's capital, much like how we saw on the ground in milwaukee and chicago for the republican and democratic national conventions over the summer. scarlet: thank you so much, joining us from outside the white house. we'll keep you posted on further developments. we mentioned the tesla cybertruck that exploded. we've got more coming up later this hour because the company also missed the 2024 vehicles

delivery goal. we will take a look at shares of tesla. right now you can see it is down about 5.5%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ lock in let's go. rated e for everyone. [rock and roll music playing]

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♪ scarlet: welcome to bloomberg markets, i'm scarlet fu. coming up, the economic outlook for the year ahead. plus, tesla shares under pressure. annual sales falling for the first time in more than a decade. and will be hearing for morgan stanley's lisa -- following another big year of gains u.s. equitys. first let's show you where things stand on the first trading day of the new year. the s&p 500 losing ground, giving up some early gains at least when it comes to big cap stocks. the russell 2000 still holding

all -- holding on, is the clear outperformer easton a. the dollar remains firmer, the dollar strength has been a theme following 2024 and that continues to be through the start of 2025. let's get to some midday movers on the equity side. looking at shares of nvidia off after a banner year in 2024, 170 1% following a tripling in the share price the year before. the rise of this chipmaker really scaled new heights, pushing up his net worth along with those of three of his longest-serving board members who themselves have become billionaires. another need to watch in the ai space is talent -- plantir, top performer in the s&p 500 leaning heavily into artificial intelligence and is also seemingly benefiting from the

cofounders ties to incoming president donald trump. let's take a look at the economy now because jobless claims fell to close out 2024. signaling the labor market is moderating, but does remain solid. meanwhile, the interest rate setting committee turning this month. when it comes to the job market, i guess the picture is muted job cuts but less robust hiring. there just doesn't seem to be a lot of movement in the labor market. >> right. the job market is still solid but we've seen the pace of hiring slow down a bit. when looking at a job market you are not seeing a lot of layoffs and the fact that we saw jobless claims fall even though there is a little that of choppiness around the holidays really reinforces that picture that folks who have employees, they

are nervous to let them go and they are holding on for the consumer that are still solid and still spending. >> for those who have jobs they are grateful. for those who are looking perhaps it is taking them longer. let's talk about the big data points may be for this week and for next week. i know this week is almost over and there isn't a whole lot after today's claims, but looking ahead we are going to get that big jobs report next week. >> looking ahead we also hear from a lot of federal reserve speakers as well. coming off of what was a pretty spicy last meeting for 2024 were begot that rate cut frankly a new era of what defines how we see rate cuts going forward with chair powell really talking about how further progress and

inflation is what we need to see. of course they said that some kind of deterioration, unexpected deterioration in the labor market would also prompt action in terms of the pace of interest rate cuts. the focus is back on inflation again. when we look through next week, i know thinking about expecting some solid hiring once again, but this picture is still of a jobs market that is overall pretty solid and not on the verge of some kind of collapse. at least that is what the current data shows. >> very quickly here you mentioned there were going to be a lot of fed speakers. who are you paying attention to given there are going to be new voting members of the fomc was comments will be a little bit more -- than others? >> next week we will hear from jeff schmidt, one of the new voters. as well be hear from fed governor -- on saturday, as well as tom barkan who is not a voter this year, but he tends to give

one big speech every quarter, and we will hear the first of that tomorrow. so there's lots to look forward to in terms of different voices and just a sense of kind of where we are heading this year with a lot of uncertainty. >> we are going to stay on the economy here and take a closer look at some of the challenges outlined, especially when it comes to employment and inflation. pleased to say we're joined now by jennifer lee. jennifer, it feels like the labor market has definitely slipped to become the fed's secondary mandate after inflation because at the press conference, jay powell seemed to make very clear that inflation is in the driver's seat. >> good afternoon and happy new year to you and yes, i think that is back in focus again. we saw another month of sticky

inflation, which we are not shocked to see but it is just interesting it is happening as we enter 2025 and we are anticipating some more stickiness, perhaps more pressure just given that we are going to be seeing a lot of tariffs hitting the screens or hitting the economy. that will be interesting to see how this pans out. i don't think anyone ever thought that it was going to be a one track town. there was always going to be some ugliness around the way. certainly this is something that is going to keep fed attention. cutting rates but not at the same pace as they did in 2024. we are looking for maybe three more cuts, 25 basis or so, but still probably a little more hesitancy before they make the next move. scarlet: i think back to the

first big break cut they did make in a 2024, 50 basis points in september and that was predicated on unemployment spiking over the summer. is that the metric to watch for when it comes to labor market, the unemployment rate as opposed to payrolls or job growth? >> if i had to pick one item it would be the jobless rate, given that it is also based on the household survey, more stable than the payroll survey. that 4.1%, 4.2%, it is still considered historically very low and it still shows a very solid job market. i don't know if we are going to be seeing a lot of layoffs. probably cooler spending patterns. in my opinion i think employers remember how difficult it was when we first got rid of millions of people off the payrolls in the pandemic. it was very difficult to bring

them all back so they are hanging onto that until they see how things play out. we are also seeing on the demographic front, there is a huge number of people who are going to hit that magic number of 65, that magic age of 65 last year. they called it the silver tsunami. we are going to see a lot more people leaving the labor market. a lot more deportation efforts from the incoming trump administration. probably going to see continuous tight labor market which i think is going to limit the number of layoff that we could potentially see. scarlet: so clearly there are a lot of variables and this raises more questions than answers because jay powell likes to say the fed is data dependent, but you pointed out in your notes that it is policy dependent as well. though that has been applied somewhat selectively during the press conference at the last fomc. jay powell made clear that some members folded and expectations for what they see the incoming president doing while others didn't. it was a real mixed bag.

that doesn't make for a very useful forecast especially when it comes to something like inflation, does it? >> know, it makes everyone's job a lot more difficult but i think this is part of uncertainty as the incoming trump administration takes over on january 20. we are going to have to see what he goals out on day one or one, whether or not those tariffs are going to be taking in right away, the intended 20% blank iteris, 25% tariffs on canada and mexico and 10% on things coming in from china and that was already at 60%. abbottabad is going to be dependent on what exactly plays out, how long they are going to be for, and i think that is what the fed is going to be watching. there's a lot of uncertainty. this is why pointed out some fed members took that into account their forecast. some did not, and some refrained to say. so i guess nobody really knows

what is going to happen. scarlet: i know you're in canada so i have to ask about canada. when it comes to currencies, the strong dollar has been a big theme and likely will be in 25 and a lot of people are saying the loonie is under pressure, weakest since march of 2020 in large part because of political uncertainty. it is certainly a drag on the currency but if justin trudeau were to step down, with that arrest the slide? >> good question. i don't know. a lot of it right now is also weighing off the dollar or at least the canadian dollar. certainly the fact that it has been a lot more aggressive on the policy front, slashing rates 175 basis points over the course of 2024, which is i believe the most aggressive out of all the g10 countries. so i think that certainly helped way on the canadian dollar.

of course we still have a weaker canadian economy but all the rate cuts are starting to help canadian economic growth somewhat. a bit of an uptick in gdp growth in october. november is looking to be down. we haven't slid into a recession officially but overall i think this just the two made factors are certainly the fed and of course the political uncertainty. whether or not that is going to help the canadian dollar, i think it will also depend on who is going to take over and which party it is going to be and when the election is going to be held which we don't know yet. scarlet: fully appreciate you joining us today. happy new year to you. coming up on bloomberg markets, shares of tesla under pressure. down 7%, deepening its losses with deliveries missing the mark. annual sales declining for the first time in more than a decade. that conversation up next.

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♪ scarlet: coming up later on, president and chief market strategist for 22 research will be joining bloomberg markets. right now i'm scarlet fu and they want to get to the stock of the hour which is tesla shares. there declines to a fifth straight session, annual sales falling for the first time in more than a decade despite a push that sent deliveries to a record in the fourth quarter. here with more is the trade bureau chief joining us. david, there's a lot to unpack your because it is elon musk, i guess that is normal. but i want to start with fourth quarter numbers, which were record deliveries.

there was a flurry of incentives, that is what really juiced up those sales. >> that's right. they had some deals going on even before they started offering discounts. to really try to hit these numbers, it is not rare for companies to have fourth-quarter sales, particularly in december. toyota's december to remember has been an annual thing for god knows how many years. but tesla really did pull out a lot of the stops. it is a record number but it also missed expectations. i expected there fourth-quarter to be huge because there is sort of a narrative out there that people who are looking to get ev is now, because donald trump may get rid of the federal tax credits when he takes office later this month. and people are going to rush out and try to take advantage of them. we don't know if that happened or not but between the dealmaking and perhaps some of that last-minute grab of tax

incentives, they have a really big quarter. a record, but didn't quite get over the line in terms of what shareholders are looking for. scarlet: absolutely. i wonder where this leaves us for 2025. imagine the pulling forward of some sales before year-end because donald trump might roll back some of those incentives, but overall consumer demand has remained fairly lukewarm and elon musk was pretty aggressive when he gave his 2025 projections anticipating 20%-30% growth for this year. how would he do that? >> the analysts on the street are not giving a lot of credit. i've seen a lot of skepticism about it. the only way he is going to be able to do it is of tesla really does come out with this model two for this lower-priced tesla and probably with a lot of dealmaking because the u.s. market, the growth in sales, there is growth, it is just not great.

in europe and china, the competition is just too much. tesla has increased capitation in the u.s. market as well. both of them are offering discounts, percentage off financing and all kinds of deals. this competition in terms of more deals but also price. he's going to need to expand the lineup. cybertruck is not a big volume seller and the other vehicles he's had have just been around for a very long time. he's going to expand the lineup, they've got to be -- get big sales out of whatever the smaller, cheaper vehicle is and there's got to be some discounting on the other models. >> this feels like a familiar theme. we talked about a refreshed lineup last year as well and that didn't really materialize. when it comes to tesla's market share, is it still in the lead in the u.s. when it comes to ev's, is it still in the lead globally? >> it is in the u.s. for sure, but that lead has come down

quite a bit. tesla, they are still a top player for electric vehicles, but the position they had a couple years ago when they were showing great growth has eroded and they are facing much bigger challenges. i think that really gets to why elon musk is now saying tesla is a play on ai, is a play on metonymy, robotics. it is a technology company. he knows how difficult it is to gain market share in the car auto business when you've reached this mature point but i think tesla has reached, and he also knows if you're going to gain share it often means giving up price and that means margins go down. the only way to keep up this huge valuation that the company has is by selling it as a technology play. if he's going to have to liver with robust, with tommy, they can develop at ai-relation. scarlet: in terms of the robotaxi and autonomous vehicles, is there any kind of

firm timeline here that investors could pin their expectations to? >> that is sort of the magic of how elon musk keep the narrative going. they are not supposed to deliver the cyber cab until 2026. that means he's got a whole year of showing results of how they are developing this and how the vehicle is doing which i think he is going to need to do to keep the story going but no one is going to hold his feet to the fire on it until 2026. tesla investors have a lot of patience with elon musk so if he does miss production targets or sale targets, anything like that, they are ok with it because he often does deliver and a lot of people have lost a lot of money betting against tesla and technology. so he's got quite a bit of runway here to develop and deliver the cyber cab before investors lose patience with him. this is a high valuation may have right now. in large part because of

politics and his relationship with donald trump, and you can see some of the air coming out of that between now and 2026 if he doesn't show other results with different businesses and with ev sales, for that matter. scarlet: david, thank you so much. tesla shares down about 7.5%. in fact, it kind of mirrors the decline we are seeing across the broader market with the s&p 500, losing ground, giving up some of its gains. all of its gains now looking like it is headed for a fifth straight day of declines. the nasdaq 100 lose even more, losing night ends of 1%. session lows for s&p 500 at midday. this is bloomberg. ♪ the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business,

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♪ >> i'm not particularly surprised that during the month of december as folks were looking forward to 2025, they

saw it with some skepticism. and the reason i say that is when we think about what earnings have actually done over the last two years, s&p 500 earnings have actually only grown at about 7%-8%, and yet the forecast over the next two years is that we are going to triple that growth rate and earnings-per-share for the index about 25-26%. and so i think folks are starting to realize that 2025 when it comes to earnings is a show me year. and that some of these expectations that are built into the stock prices may just be too ambitious. scarlet: i like that. talk about what that means for big tech specifically, because even without broadening out that we were hoping for, that we saw fall apart in december, this is a big tech-driven market and many are saying that that is

what we are going to see again in 2025. what does the earnings picture look like specifically focusing on that industry? >> what may have slipped their minds a little bit is remembering big tech at a big earnings recession, actually, at the end of 2022. and that earnings recession set up some very easy comparisons over the last 12 months that allowed big tech companies to put up just spectacular year-over-year earnings growth numbers. in 2025, we think things are going to normalize and while big tech may lead the charge in terms of earnings growth, that used to be about 15%-18% when you look at the mag seven. and so that deceleration in growth may surprise some of the

diehards who are betting on these very high double earnings numbers. scarlet: microsoft lagged even the s&p 500. how much does even that divergence make a difference given that nvidia comprised so much of the returns for the broader index as well as the mag seven? >> i think you bring up a fantastic point. we are getting to a part of the cycle where differences in individual company exposures is really going to make a difference. whether we are talking about different exposures to the ai growth story itself, exposure to antitrust risks, more recently we vented talk about exposure to a very strong dollar. these are all issues that i think are going to start

differentiating between and among the mag seven and this idea that they can trade together and lead the market may falter in 2025. let's go boys. the way that i approach work, post fatherhood, has really been trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families, like my own. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. ♪ ♪

>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power."

live from washington, d.c. joe: no known connection between new orleans and las vegas. welcome to the fastest show in politics, as authorities answer questions about a violent new year's day in the united states of america. i'm joe mathieu alongside kailey leinz in washington. yes, she is back today, the thursday edition of "balance of power." great to see you, happy new year, as we hear from authorities today they don't see a connection between these events. they think the attacker in new orleans acted alone. kailey: it does seem based on the inventor fraser and -- based on the information that this was a lone-wolf attack and this was terror inspired by isis, which raises questions as we wait clarity on how if it all there was any connection which authorities do not see at this