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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  January 8, 2025 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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>> today, sec chair gary gensler sits in for an exclusive interview. tune in today and noon eastern only on bloomberg. >> welcome to bloomberg markets. it is jobs day eve and we are seeing the stock market make a turnaround here, giving up their early losses and inching higher here. he sees inflation cooling and that supports his view for more rate cuts this year. the russell continues to underperform with small caps lagging behind.
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the bond market stabilizing after a recent move higher in yields, but the 20 year yield did top 5%. it could be a sign of what is to come across the curve. a quick glance at what is going on in the u.k.. the bond to is a global story with a 10 year yield jumping to the highest since 2008 on concern about inflationary pressures, drawing comparisons to what happened in 2022. let's go to david gura, sitting down with the outgoing chair of the sec in washington. david come over to you. david: thank you and welcome to our listeners and viewers worldwide. you have had a very active agenda during your tenure here. i want to get to is much of that as i can, but i want to start by asking you how you're feeling with less than two weeks left. you have been subject to a fair
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amount of attacks and vitriol. how have you processed all of that? chair gensler: it is a great privilege to be in a row like this. it is a big country. a lot of people could do this job, so i start with it is such a privilege to be here. thank you to joe biden for asking me to do it. what is remarkable about this role is it overseas a 120 trillion dollar capital market which touches everything in our economy. you have to raise money for most of what we do in our economy, so i feel terrific. and you ask about the attacks and things like that. that is what public policy is about. you walk in to this central square and you debate these important things for 330 million americans. i have worked over the years with hillary clinton on a number of campaigns and i remember
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hilary saying once if you are not willing to be attacked you cannot go into the public square and debate policy and so i think it is part of our great democracy. david: i look at who is throwing that invective against you and it is the president-elect, the world's richest man. has the environment changed for regulators like yourself? chair gensler: i think it does change. what we do here at this agency is look out for every day americans, people just try to save for a better future and trying to move through things that help them, like we have done, like even shortening the settlement cycle from two days to one day might sign -- might sound geeky but it means you get your money one day faster or getting privacy notices. there was no federal rule that
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you needed to get a notice if your data was hacked and we put in place rules to do that, so we are looking out for everyday americans, trying to lower the cost of the markets but it does not surprise me that there are some in the middle of the market . they are called brokers, dealers, intermediaries, stock exchanges who like their business model and if we are changing the rules to benefit everyday americans, they might have thoughts on that and object. that is part of the process, but our clients ultimately are people at their kitchen tables. david: let me ask you about one facet of that, crypto. you point out it is a small sliver of that total package, but you came into this job and
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gave a big speech in which you analogized the crypto world to the wild west. i guess that makes you the sheriff. as you get ray to hang up your spurs, is it less of a wild west than it was? chair gensler: my daughters if they ever ask or and -- are they ever watch this interview will ask you, where are your spurs? i think we have done some good things. i came in. my predecessor, who was in this office, had also tried to address this new, emerging part of finance. as you say, it is less than 1% of our overall financial markets. but it was then when jay was trying to address it. he brought 80 enforcements. it is about 5% of what we do in our law enforcement. that means it is 95% about other
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things, scammers and fraudsters and so forth, but in this field it is rife with bad actors. it is -- let me slit the field into two for a minute. the public knows a lot about bitcoin, which is, depending on its market value on any given day, two thirds to 80% of the market value of crypto. and then there is everything else. some people say bitcoin and theory him and everything else. 10,000 or 15,000 projects raising money from the public and the public is investing or they are just -- the public is investing, hoping for a better future. i have been around finance for over four decades and everything in the markets trades on a
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mixture of fundamentals and sentiment at any given time. i have never seen a field that is so wrapped up in sentiment and not about fundamentals, and these 10,000 to 15,000 projects, many of them will not survive. they are like venture capital investments. they are not going to survive, but they are also a fair number of small pump and dump schemes and other things and we have lived through a few years where they became notorious but they are in jail, sam bankman-fried, where tens of billions of dollars were lost by investors. david: early when you talked about enforcement, you said bringing high profile cases could lead to a change in behavior. are you satisfied those cases have led to a change in behavior in the space?
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>> it is a field that built up around noncompliance and i am proud of what we have done building on what chair clayton and others had done previously. i think there is still work to be done, particularly about these 10,000 or 15,000 alternative coins and the intermediaries. i think there is still work to be done and i think the public is aware of this. less than 10% of the public invests in this field. we did a survey here, these public figures, it is between 7% and 9% of the public. these are highly speculative, volatile investments and they are not getting a full and fair
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disclosure. what we are about here for 90 years is letting the public decide what they want to invest in. the proper disclosure. secondly, that the intermediaries, brokers and stock exchanges and advisors, that they are giving that advice and doing what they are doing without fraud manipulation. >> when you came into office, people looked at your immediate background and thought you would be perhaps a champion of them. has there been an evolution in the way you approach crypto over that transition from academia to hear or while you have been here? chair gensler: here is the evolution. when you are in academia or not in this job, you can study something and observe it as i
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did and try to teach students the value proposition about this new technology. this is roughly five thousand people that is a law enforcement agency. building on my predecessor brought 80 cases and this is a field rife with challenges and noncompliance with the securities laws, so sometimes people -- you taken oath of office and do what you can to protect the investing public. >> another question turning to climate related rules passed by the sec, some say you fashioned yourself as a climate crusader. are they wrong? chair gensler: i have not heard that.
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i was a goldman sachs for 18 years. a fair number of years ago now. i deeply believe in markets and i came into a role that there were some outsiders that said use the securities laws to promote an agenda, but we are just a securities regulator and i believe that. what we found is not just hundreds but over a thousand companies were already making disclosures to their investors about climate risks. and i am very proud of the work we did to bring consistency in those disclosures based in materiality, meaning the only thing that various investors need to look to -- the only thing the public companies we need to do is make disclosures
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about their material greenhouse gas emissions, not supply chain, just emissions and how they manage certain risk in that field. one interesting number of the top thousand companies in the u.s. and capital markets, what percentage do you think already make greenhouse gas disclosures? it is over 60%. so investors -- we heard from not just hundreds but thousands of investors that say they make decisions over those material disclosures. so our role is just to try to bring consistency to that. david: we are going to keep talking. the full interview will be available on the podcast. we will send it back to you in new york. scarlet: thank you. bloomberg's david gura in washington with outgoing sec
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chair gary gensler. we want to reflect on some of what he did tell us and bring in bloomberg balance cohost kailey leinz. it is interesting that gary gensler is minimizing his role in what he has done talking about how we are just a securities regulator and do not have any greater mission than protecting the public. what stood out to you? kailey: it was interesting that he was trying to compare himself with his predecessor in some way . the idea that the enforcement actions he has taken flak for when it comes to the crypto industry, which has had an antagonistic relationship with the sec, he was suggesting that started with a lot of enforcement actions himself. it was not just gary gensler initially posted because of legal challenges.
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he had to relent, the court making that decision in many ways for him and the other commissioners. we have seen pushback through the courts to many of the rules he has tried to pursue, not just when it pertains to crypto it also things like hedge fund disclosures. they talked about the notion that the sec is just a securities regular and they will not try to ramp up disclosures that public companies would have to make. that has been on pause because of legal questions around it. it is not clear that is something that is going to stand in the incoming sec led by paul atkins, who presumably will be confirmed by that role, tapped by donald trump. there are questions about how the sec will move forward differently under this administration and could be friendly to wall street at large. scarlet: i know this is something you will discuss later on balance of power. bloomberg balance of power
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cohost kailey leinz in washington. coming up, the s&p 500 now turning a bit lower here, losing about .25%. we will look at individual stocks moving in the session. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. we are looking at the s&p 500, down with eight out of 11 sectors in the red. let's bring in natalia. >> we are watching shares of ebay and meta. meta is down, but that is part of bigger risk off sentiment. ebay is the current best performing stock as humpton said
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ebay -- as meta said ebay will be able to publish listings and customers will complete purchases directly on ebay. it is a big move for the company. we see the stock reacting positively. next is a biotechnology company. it is a big move. the stock is up by more than 200%. the company posted positive results on its trial and treatment of type one diabetes. the study found no safety issues. analysts are excited about this news, but they are saying on the one hand, the timeframe between now and the moment when the tree it will be available for commercialization could take a long time, but at the same time it changes the risk profile of this company. finally, the worst performing stock in the s&p 500, down by
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almost 10%. the stock is moving down sharply as wildfires are spreading across los angeles. the company's southern california utility is the largest in the region. it has shut down power to more than 100,000 customers, homeowners, and businesses and says it is likely to cut more electricity as it tries to prevent the spread of wildfires. scarlet: we will head to let get an update on those wildfires. coming, president biden just certified a raise for millions of retirees, but the move might barely be a silver lining for social security at large. we have more in our new retirement focused segment next. this is bloomberg. ♪ chine. you gonna go back and see how the pyramids were built or something? nope. ellen and i want to go on vacation, so i'm going to go back to last week and buy a winning lottery ticket. -can i come? -only room for one.
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scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. time for a weekly segment that makes its debut today focusing on retirement, a key topic that voters and politicians are increasingly focused on. president biden on sunday signed a bill into law that will increase social security benefits for retirees. >> we are extending social security benefits for teachers, nurses, and other public employees. that means an average of $360 per month increase. that is a big deal. scarlet: for more on this, let's bring in suzanne willie. this is a rare public bill signing for president biden. don't social security benefits increase annually due to cost-of-living adjustment? >> they do.
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this was interesting because it is about the social security fairness act, which is an act that applies to a couple provisions for public service workers social security benefits because of some quirks in the system, so this is sort of trying to remedy some old provisions in the social security system that have hurt public service workers like firefighters and policemen and teachers. scarlet: thus the social security fairness act. why was this past before the start of the new year? >> good question. one never knows what wrangling is going on in washington, but one thing that has become more pressing is more baby boomers are retiring and our beneficiaries and encountering this. so this has a broad appeal among congressmen and senators because
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their constituents in every state are getting dinged by these old provisions in the social security act. scarlet: you mention baby boomers. when i hear about benefits increasing, i think it is inevitable this will run out of money or we will not get as much benefits as prior generations. what are experts saying on that front? >> that this social security fairness act will impact the health of the social security system and push up when the system is unable to pay full promise benefits to workers by six months, so that effects all of us. scarlet: so my fears are not unfounded. >> there is always talk of reform, about pushing the retirement age to 70, and i feel like every generation gets a little less from the social security system as it comes
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under need of reform and they have to do something to lessen the costs. scarlet: you have been writing about how this cohort faces significant financial stress in large part because it is the first group that really saw the retirement of traditional pension plans and the advent of 401(k) plans, which people did not really understand how to use. >> true. gen x were sort of the guinea pigs of the 401k system and the first generation to full on have 401(k)s and in the beginning plans were not as good. companies -- record keepers were not as involved and savvy about the best design for the plans. fees were higher, so we had an imperfect system that the generation had to jump into with kind of no training. scarlet: financial literacy was
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not something we were taught in school and this cohort is also paying for their kids' tuition and elderly parents. a lot people say they do not see themselves able to retire anytime soon. >> many people do not because of the pressures you mentioned. not only are they helping their parents, but they are helping their adult children who are having a tough time launching into the working world and this is all at a time when costs are high, so you have all these pressures and it is hard to find the money to save for retirement you have more pressing financial needs. scarlet: i think about one of the quotes about having to grind it out and not be able to retire. that kind of sums it up. thank you. coming up, we are looking at 2025 shaping up to be a big year for m&a. a global chair of m&a joins us
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scarlet: welcome to "bloomberg markets." let's check on how markets are faring. the s&p 500 at session lows. led lower by technology. the nasdaq losing about .80%. the russell 2000 underperforming with 10 out of 11 sectors declining. basic materials is the outlier. the oldest -- only sector in the russell gaining per the bond market stabilizing after the move higher in yields. the 20 year yield currently just below 5%. it reached 5%. it is an outlier on the curve. it could be a worrisome sign for what is to come across the rest of the curve now that it is topped 5% today. to the u.k.
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the bond selloff has been a global story. it really peaked with the tenure u.k. bond yield reaching 4.8%. the highest 2008. a lot of persistent inflationary pressures. comparisons drawn to the 2022 turmoil. for more on the market rout in the u.k., i want to bring in rachel evans. managing editor for fixed income and rates for europe overall. i talked about inflationary pressures, but it is hard to pin down a specific selloff in u.k. bonds. what are people saying to you? >> it is one of those things, you come into a new year and it is sentiment driven. this has been lurking behind u.k. assets for a while. particularly since we had the u.k. budget under the new labour party administration in october. people have been growing concerned about the amount of
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debt they are looking to sell in order to fund their spending plan. 297 billion pounds worth of debt in this fiscal year. those options are coming through this week as the year gets underway. they seem to have provided a reminder to investors. this is something they need to pay closer attention to. this is why we are seeing this more dramatic move. scarlet: not just bonds, the pound under pressure, one dollar 23 cents, the lowest since april. bonds and currencies selling off together. usually higher rates will attract investors which supports the currency. >> exactly. it is a particularly the bad sign. when you see rates in the currency moving, higher yields and lower currency, that is a sign of a broader lack of confidence in that particular country. normally you would expect high yields to woo investors to come
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in. this is not a good sign. couple it with the fact we see u.k. stocks falling as well, particularly the domestic focus. it is sending a signal investors are losing faith in the u.k. as an economy. a government that has vowed to restart growth and bring back growth. there are serious questions about whether investors are buying that. scarlet:in 2022, the gilt meltdd to a liquidity crisis overall. a bunch of funds were left flat-footed. do you see any sign of disorder from institutional investors, different funds? >> not yet. a lot of the problems we identified have really been solved. we don't have the same exposure from pension funds to particularly inflation linked debt, which really prompted a big scramble for the exits two years ago. those problems have eased. when we see yields hitting
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multi-decade levels, some of those heading back to the trust levels we saw in 2022, it begs that comparison. i think people are watching very closely to see if the initial selloff gains legs and becomes more of a broader confidence crisis in the u.k. scarlet: it is something we will monitor. rachel evans joining us from london, thank you. plenty of stress in the u.k. but no signs of stress when it comes to dealmaking in the u.s. m&a activity is off to a hot start. some notable transactions, gety agreeing to buy shutterstock. software from -- is acquiring pay core. adding it all up, the deal hall is worth more than $37 billion. moments ago, breaking news regarding constellation energy, near a deal to buy calpine in what could be the biggest ever deal in a power generation sector. with more on the m&a backdrop, i
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want to welcome bob profusek. they have advised more than 1000 deals over the past decade. bob, great to see you. you say that the m&a stars are almost aligned perfectly for 2025. in large part because of the lighter touch regulatory environment under a pro-business donald trump. the deals announced this week and today, it is not like they came together after november 5. >> there has been a lot in the pipeline, so to speak. but the last two years have been difficult. the regulatory environment is difficult. it will probably be better. most deals are global, or have a global dimension to them, a utility deal or something like that. it is difficult outside the u.s.. one of the things people are worried about, there is euphoria on the other hand, the idea the
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u.s. steel deal was blocked on those kinds of -- on the grounds it was blocked on. that is troublesome. one of the things that has evolved in the last few years, foreign direct investment requirements. not antitrust. kind of like the things that were brought together. it is much better, there is no question this last demonstration is most aggressive may be ever, but at least in my time, which has been a long time, in terms of enforcement. that is a big factor. not just horizontal, to countries in the same space, but there is resistance to vertical deals, which will become more important if the world becomes more vulcanized and we get tariffs and that sort of thing. scarlet: how do tariffs spur more vertical deals? >> every company that brings in
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product from mexico, china, asia, almost every company in some sense that make things, they are trying to figure out what will happen. they are looking back to trump one saying how did that work out. things could become prohibitively expensive. most don't operate with a huge amount of slack in their profit margin. they are very tight. people are looking at it and thinking maybe we have to vertically integrate in the u.s., which is what the trump administration would like to have happen rather than buying things abroad. people are looking at reconfiguring assets, including assets sent out in the last decade or so because of the penitential for -- potential for tariffs. the one thing we need is clarity soon. scarlet: i think everyone is in agreement on that, everyone
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wants an answer. i want to talk about the ev industry. it is in for a rough year. stalling demand overall. fierce competition from china. reduced production that has led to names like nissan and honda merging, which took people by surprise. you say a lot of the companies in the ecosystem will run out of capital soon. what kind of deals will result in? >> it -- typically distressed mn day is about debt. most companies don't have a lot of debt. you can't afford debt when you are in a ramp-up environment. you don't have a lot of sales. it is based on the future. there will be consolidation. especially in the battery and related kinds of spaces. because there was, as is not unusual, a euphoria in the 2022 period. a lot of capital was raised, it reminds me of what is going on
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with ai because the valuations were astronomical for companies that did not have any revenue. electrification is dead. it is not this moonshot people were thinking it might be. it is here permanently. but it is not going to be so quick. these companies capitalized on the assumption it was a moonshot. even the big manufacturers, they said we would be all electric by a certain time. scarlet: they had to block that out. >> it will be a period of transition. scarlet: i think about the media industry and how it is setting itself up for dealmaking. comcast has a spin code ready, warner bros. has we organized into legacy and streaming. then we got the news fubo and disney are teaming up. how messy will to get -- will it
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get? there is a lot of talks on the remaking of this and it may not happen right away. >> this business in very significant part, not just media and all that, all business is driven by technological change. i think about what is going on in technology, i'm a big football fan. i was surprised at the games last weekend, nfl games, they were on a subscription service i don't have. all of everything is moving. the so-called cord cutting and all of that that goes on with cable. there will be a reckoning and that space. whether separating the businesses, that makes some sense. maybe the streaming people, that is one side, they got a better multiple. there may be a lot of consolidation with traditional people in the space. there will be a lot of activity.
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one reason i think it is a hot market is there's a lot of reconfiguration spinoffs, you will see the spinoff and merger at the same time. as people are repositioning for a new world. especially in media. >> it is something we know all asset firms are looking at. appreciate you joining us. giving us your 2025 outlook. jeanne sheehan zaino, global chair -- bob profusek global chair of m&a. coming up is our stock of the hour, ebay. its biggest gain since 2021. this is bloomberg. ♪
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it is time for the stock of the hour. looking at shares of ebay. sewing for the best performance on the s&p 500, gaining almost 10% after meta offered to publish their listing on facebook marketplace. this is an effort to comply with the eu antitrust order. they did say in a block post that they will expand to germany, france, and the u.s. allowing people to browse from ebay directly on facebook marketplace while completing the transaction on ebay. joining us more is caroline hyde. good news for ebay. people have access to the listings. caroline: basically, visibility, reach, merchandise volume is the outlook. nothing but a positive thus far. even they are saying it is a positive for ebay. the staying power will be everything. how long this test becomes a reality. as i mentioned in the introduction, they are trying to fight this. not only is there this movement
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they have to include on the marketplace, you cannot just be a facebook user and allowed to use facebook marketplace, but they have a hefty fine on the back of it. it is still being fought out in the courts. it is a lovely day for ebay stocks. scarlet: in terms of what people are saying whether it is good news or bad news for facebook, -- meta i should say -- is it a negative? the more variety on the facebook marketplace, it is a canvas destination for users. caroline: in many ways it is good. i assume the fact they have to let others in what had been a world garden for them ultimately feels aggravating. they would not be pursuing what is expensive legal fees if they did not feel there was more of a fine. it seems like a win-win for the consumer. a more powerful, one-stop shop. when you go in, if you are lucky enough to get access in germany
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or france. you will still be going through ebay for the payments. i wonder if there is an element that they still have to push off to a different marketplace to complete the purchase is something they might have a business model at. >> it would work better if they came in and did have the branding and nothing beyond that. in terms of meta and what people are talking about, the idea they will let users police themselves, does it move the share price? you talk about it a lot on bloomberg technology and politicians have discussed it, but do investors care as much? >> investors will be pleased there seems to be in alignment with the future administration. there would be more of an overhang on the stock that at one point trump said he they want to incarcerate mark zuckerberg read it does not bode well for potential enforcement and focus on antitrust coming their way. the fact meta has so
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single-mindedly focused on aligning itself, whether with changing of the guard from a policy chief at the company, the fact they are going on fox and friends, a trip to mar-a-lago and a lunch reported on, the fact we are managing to push back on the fact any bias moving from texas to california, i would have thought an alignment with the future administration. scarlet: caroline hyde, thank you with the stock of the hour. ebay. let's go to the top of the hour. back then, we had an occlusive interview with the outgoing sec chairman. as donald trump takes the white house. gary gensler spoke about his legacy. take a listen. >> it is a great privilege to be in a row like this. the 33rd chair, it is a big country, a lot of people do this job. it is a privilege to be here.
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thank you to joe biden for asking me to do it. scarlet: watch the full interview across our bloomberg media platforms. coming up next on bloomberg markets, an update on the wildfires taking place in southern california as the most destructive windstorm to strike the los angeles area in 14 areas fans the flames. this is bloomberg. guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one.
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scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. i'm scarlet fu. a breaking story we are following. wildfires in southern california being fanned by the most destructive windstorm to hit that area in 14 years. going live to alec stone who is in los angeles. you are in alta dena, where there is a fire raging. a couple of different areas within the l.a. area where there are separate fires. >> you are right. four separate fires. at this point, this being the only deadly one. two people have died in this fire, numerous others have burn injuries. they have not been able to count. one of the other big fires in pacific palisades near malibu. that is the first one that ignited yesterday. another in the northern city of l.a. in the sylmar area.
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another one out east. it is a lot of fire. it comes down to the wind until a couple of hours ago. 100 mile-per-hour winds hitting the area. you could not stand in it, firefighters could not shoot water in it because it would go at a 90 degree angle. it made it impossible for them to fight the fire. winds have subsided a little bit. they may pick up later today. firefighters are here with us. they just began putting water on it to take advantage of this lull to knock down the flames in this area. if we walk over here, calfire have their truck send hoses out. they have been working all of this. they have a big road ahead. it is so dry, 10% humidity. still quite breezy even though it may not be 100 mile-per-hour winds. they have a lot of work left to go.
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a lot of crews are coming in from northern california, nevada, oregon. they are out of crews in southern california. scarlet: what is the state with evacuation orders versus warnings? i don't see people in the area you are at. is it difficult for people to make their way out of that part of los angeles? >> people have been told to get out of here. it is an evacuated area. it is so big that they could not do anything but go on loudspeakers on patrol cars saying leave now. in pacific palisades, they had a rough time. people clogged the roads and got out of the cars running and abandoning their cars. the l.a. fire department came with bulldozers and moved the cars out of the way so engines like this one could get in. otherwise they were blocked. in the altadena area, people
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were trying to get away from the flames. a lot of vehicles were packed up, people racing out of here. not bumper-to-bumper like pacific palisades. but we don't have firm evacuation numbers because it is so big and so unknown that law enforcement and firefighters say everyone get out. scarlet: alex stone with abc news, thank you for the update. keeping an eye on the developments. gavin newsom, the governor of california, spoke with president joe biden to give him an update on the wildfires raging in los angeles. that does it for bloomberg markets. we leave you with the s&p 500 under pressure, down about .3%. the bond market we are watching very closely. yields have stabilized. the 10 is currently at about 4.68%. below the 4.7% level.
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the twenty-year topped 5%. a key level to watch. even though it is a little bit of an outlier, not as widely traded, less liquid than the other tenors, it could portend similar moves across the curve to the 5% level. people were anticipating if yields get to 10%, it may make a move toward 6%. if yields stay elevated, it can trigger a rethink on the equity market and spur larger declines in u.s. stocks. from new york, this is bloomberg . ♪
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lock in let's go. rated e for everyone. [rock and roll music playing] xfinity. made for gaming. rewards members, get early access to an ea sports fc25 kit. visit xfinity.com/rewards.
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>> from the world of politics to the world of business. this is "balance of power." live from washington, d.c.
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joe: donald trump makes his return to the capital. welcome to the faster show in politics as the president elect arrives in washington to attend the funeral of jimmy carter. not before an important meeting on capitol hill between donald trump and senate republicans. i'm joe mathieu alongside kailey leinz. welcome to the wednesday edition of balance of power. the meeting could bring a lot of news on the congressional agenda on sequencing, confirmations, and more. kailey: confirmations will be in focus as hearings for donald trump's nominees for second administration, a large number, will begin next week ahead of his inauguration on the 20th. after the inauguration when they are trying to enact his legislative agenda, we have a big question mark as to how exactly tactically he wants to pursue this. if he wants a big, powerful bill, or if senate republicans get his ear and want it to be two. will he decide that is the better way forwar

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