>> this is bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: live from new york, this is "bloomberg technology." we are getting straight to our top story out of washington. tiktok is at the u.s. supreme court fighting for its future.

justices are hearing arguments only nine days before a federal law is said to ban tiktok in the united states. bloomberg's tyler kendall is standing by at the court. is it national security versus free speech here? tyler: oral arguments at the supreme court reaching their one hour mark. lawyers for tiktok started their opening arguments saying this is a first amendment issue, arguing that if the band does going to place it could curtail the freedom of expression of its 170 billion u.s.-based users. no info else -- noel francisco also adding to delay the band going into place. the national security concerns in a brief submitted head of today's argument the u.s. federal government says this is not about freedom of speech because there is still a viable

path on the table for tiktok to operate if they divest. they are trying to restrict foreign adversary holding, considering bytedance connection to china and what that could mean to national security. that appears to be the thread we are seeing the supreme court justice's blog, potentially expressing -- the supreme court justice is pull on, potentially expressing skepticism at tiktok's arguments. the first question from clarence thomas was whether tiktok was trying to convert restriction on bytedance's ownership onto a restriction on the freedom of speech of tiktok and its users. caroline: reading the tea leaves , shares of snap and meta are on the higher side. it does not seem like the arguments are going in tiktok's favor. frank mccourt is with us to keep the conversation going. founder of project liberty who

just made a formal offer to acquire tiktok. you call it the people's bid. why is your consortium the right owners if bytedance says it will divest? frank: i think we are the right buyers because we have put all the pieces together. we have the funding. we have worked through all of the legal issues. we have a full offered front of bytedance. most importantly we have the clean american tech stack to move the user base over to and we do not need or want the chinese algorithm. the algorithm is something china is very beholden to and has said clearly they will not going to be selling it. we do not need it or want it. as a matter of fact we are the leading bidder right now. caroline: we are seeing share price reaction from rivals. from your reading of what is happening, doesn't look to be

going in the way you like it to proceed? would you like to delay the proceedings to go forward with it? frank: we would like to buy u.s. tiktok. that is what we would like to see as the end result and move the user base to this clean american stack. it is no surprise the argument is going well for the government because this is a real national security issue, a strongly bipartisan piece of legislation passed by congress and upheld by the appellate court. the conventional wisdom is the government's position will be upheld, the legislation will stay in effect, which means on january 19 bytedance has to decide are they going to shut it down or sell. in order to sell they need to enter into an agreement which is why we put a formal offer in front of them in the last 24 hours. caroline: what is the price tag of that offer? frank: what we have said is we will not be talking about terms of the deal until we get into a formal conversation with them.

we want to be very respectful of bytedance because it is a sensitive time. we know they are arguing in front of the supreme court. at the time we engage in an active negotiation we be able to share details once we sort things with them. caroline: have you spoken to any of the current investors who are united states based? we also know sequoia is involved. they have indicated interest in rolling over their investments. they do not want to lose their entire investment in u.s. tiktok. we have put up a real proposal forward which gives them value for u.s. tiktok. having said that, they are waiting to see what bytedance decides to do before committing. caroline: i am interested in the

fact that investors are interested in rolling over. what value will you accrete for the business? you want a totally different tech stack. how that change the use of tiktok? you want a different form of social media, you do not want content for the ultimate users and being advertised against? frank: there will be advertising on the new tiktok. we see an internet evolving where rather than an attention economy meaning algorithms designed to keep us addicted and online in a very unhealthy fashion, why not an intention economy where we let people know we are interested. we get that from the business. inference is more valuable than intention.

instead of having algorithms guess that we might want something, why don't you and i be very clear, verify we are a human being and be clear about what we want and then receive it on the internet. we have technology available now that did not exist 25 years ago that enables you and i to actually control our identity, our data, and our relationships. let's put people in charge of their data. our data is very valuable. scarlet: that it -- caroline: that is why so much value has been accrued on a private market basis to bytedance in tiktok. ultimately by not making these things "addictive" do you lose value and is at the right compromise? frank: there are other factors. in the case of the supreme court hearing in the legislation being discussed there are national security risks. caroline: yes. frank: there are also issues around safety to children.

their issues of the viability of our democratic system. the algorithms may be powerful. that does not mean they are good or constructive. we have a technology that has evolved into one that is attention based, which means these platforms scrape our data, they aggregate it pub and to do that they are surveilling us. then they profile us. this is the problem going on with tiktok. it is not only their surveillance and information on 170 million people, it is that bytedance can provide what they want to feed to the 170 million people. it is an influence device. i think we are all learning together that the current architecture which takes advantage of people is not the best architecture. it is leading to very poor outcomes. this is just engineering, it can be designed differently to work differently. we can get all of the benefits

we get from internet technology without the harms. it is interesting that this tiktok problem could actually be the way forward to a much bigger solution to having an internet much healthier for all of us. caroline: how has that got ramifications on meta and a snap, which on a day of doing well if tiktok loses this argument it is out and then the followers, the users go to these other rival platforms, the advertising money goes to these rival platforms. wire analysts like morgan stanley not saying there is a legitimate bid and we are still looking for a future in social media. why are people not taking that seriously? frank: bytedance has been playing out there legal strategy and it is coming to an end. caroline: has it been a good legal strategy from your perspective? frank: from the vantage point of looking at the legislation and

how it is passed, strong bipartisan legislation, or a real national security risk. as i say it is coming to an end. now that that path is closing down on them, now they are confronted with january 19. we are talking about nine days. something has to give. either it will be shut down or there will be a transaction. that is why we put a formal offer in place. there is enough time to process that and they hope -- and we hope they do because we want to see tiktok stay alive. we do not want to see a band or shut down, just like president-elect trump does not. caroline: we can talk about president-elect trump and what january 20 means for all of this in their quest -- the request he

has made from the supreme court to delay. frank: i think the legislation will operate. it is a hard and fast date of january 19. the timing is interesting. it does not get to president-elect trump unless the three-month extension kicks in. it is a biden administration decision to extend the time frame for bytedance and tiktok. caroline: or unless there is some sort of delay which many think will not happen. frank: if it does it is a different ballgame. i understand that. why wanted bytedance except an offer if it does not include the algorithm? they win, president trump wins because it is not banned. shareholders when, they get value from as opposed to getting nothing. u.s. citizens win because our

clean stack will protect them. the national security risk is gone and tiktok users win because the app stays in business. caroline: why arts there competing bids? -- why aren't there competing bids? frank: the legislation requires you have a clean stack and this be independent of bytedance technology. that is not an easy thing to do. if we had not been working on the technology and invested half $1 billion we would not be in a position to bid. it is very serendipitous that the work that project liberty has been doing to reimagine how the internet works just so happens to be right place right time to actually be the winning bidder for tiktok and keep the app going, move the user base to a clean stack and at the same time demonstrate to people there is another version of the internet where they are in charge of themselves. they own their data, they own

the relationships and they can get value for it and parse out its use as opposed to being surveilled and having the data in the hands of someone else who is deciding what to feed them. caroline: briefly, next steps for you. you have kindly given us your time today but what happens after the arguments finish at the supreme court? frank: we are all anxiously awaiting the supreme court to make their decision and we look forward to a conversation with bytedance and see if we can get something completed prior to the 19th so the biden administration can grant the three-month extension. caroline: please come back of that conversation happens. frack mccourt, founder project liberty, the bid on the table for u.s. tiktok. coming up, we look at tech themes dominating the deal sector. maybe this is a deal we need to talk about. that is next.

this is bloomberg technology. ♪

caroline: broader benchmarks are down because the jobs numbers were so hot. we want to shine a light on the key story. in the supreme court tiktok fighting for its future. meta higher .5% as investors say the oral arguments do not seem to be going in tiktok's favor. let's dwell on tiktok a little bit more. could it be a deal to watch for

2025? as we hear the oral arguments at the supreme court and discern the future of tiktok, could big tech deals -- barak, i know you cannot tell us about the intricacies of whether or not we get a deal out of u.s. tiktok, but have you been thinking through that deal? is the deal outlook for tech a strong one? barak: thank you for having me. the outlook is actually very strong -- if you think about any large transaction it gets very complex and this tends to move the market and show other m&a is possible can help ignite the market if it can happen.

if we were to go through this, woon we talk to our clients about complicated and complex carveouts, we talk about months and quarters in terms of timelines to getting it done, not days or weeks. to the extent that some of that work has been going on, that is fantastic. it depends on who the buyer is in terms of what the stack looks like and how capable they are to receive it. all of that will drive the timeline no matter what happens. obviously you need willing buyers and sellers. caroline: ultimately this is a geopolitical discussion that drives the potential sale of tiktok. how much will geopolitics play into m&a and carveouts as relationships between the u.s. and china become more tense? barak: that is a great question. it is impossible to underestimate the impact it already has had and the chilling effect it has had, particular

when you think about big tech, particularly when you think about the semiconductor space. antitrust enforcement in the u.s., i think tariff war's or skirmishes or battles, however you define those between the u.s. and china and potentially the eu and other countries, it certainly adds complexity to that. when you think about big tech and semiconductors and social media getting caught in that crosshair it has a big chilling effect on m&a more broadly. if you think about the market more broadly, 90 something percent of the market is not really involved in that. it is only the u.s. antitrust enforcement which will matter to them. if that eases off under an incoming trump administration i think that is generally a nice tail wind for m&a into 2025. caroline: of course there need to be willing sellers and willing buyers. we have been talking with frank

mccourt who has others willing to come forward, private equity, family officers. who are the willing buyers. is pe a big player? barak: thinking more broadly pe has a deal to play. they are experts at getting deals done. they have seen all the most difficult deals, they have seen it all. they had balance sheet, they had availability of capital. they are fantastic owners to be part of any kind of bid. i think the industry has a lot of experience looking at carveouts. this would be effectively a carveouts and looking at big carveouts out of large enterprises. private equity has a large role to play. whether it is this deal specifically or more broadly, in general pe is interested in items that get carved out of larger tech enterprises.

generally there view is these have been unloved a little bit, they are potentially under managed. this is not the tiktok example, this is more broadly. they see an opportunity to create value and drive shareholders. caroline: a busy year. extra fitting is it. barak revealed. -- barak ravid. nvidia criticizing the biden administration over chip restrictions. more u.s. china politics. this is "bloomberg technology." ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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caroline: just want to check in on nvidia stock because the company has been criticizing what we expect to be new chip export restrictions coming from the by then white house. heady of any announcement --

ahead of any announcement later today nvidia says it is trying to undercut the trump administration by imposing rules. nvidia selling off 3% more. tell us a little bit about what also could be a key headwind in terms of selling their devices worldwide? >> this would be a headwind and would come up other restrictions on ai chip sales in china nvidia is already facing from the u.s.. those were imposed about a year and a half ago by the biden administration. this new set of proposed restrictions that could come in the next few days, this would add a velvet rope to the world where the u.s. would be controlling access to these chips. it would be capped coming your access would be capped on company in .3 basis and the closest u.s. allies, europe, u.k., japan and australia would have the easiest access. most of the rest of the world would face tougher restrictions

and meet security requirements and also human rights requirements. there are handful of u.s. adversaries, namely china and russia that would face the most restrictions in the least likelihood of having access to the sophisticated ai technology coming from the u.s. and principally from nvidia. caroline: what is so fascinating is it has not been announced and we have heard the strong response. i'm not aware of how often we hear strong rebuttals from companies. nvidia usually keeps quiet about political changes. michael: i am glad you framed it that way because this was an unusual comment from nvidia and we heard objections more broadly from the group in washington that represents the chipmakers industry. they were criticizing the biden administration move ahead of its release saying it would be unnecessarily restrictive on whatever trump may want to do with foreign policy but it would

also inflict wide pain on other parts of the economy, the gaming industry, computing. back in september when he was asked by our own colleague tyler kendall, jensen huang said we will abide by any restrictions in government policies and now he is saying -- earlier this week he told our friend ed ludlow he is interested in meeting with donald trump. this would give them something to talk about is the new administration takes office. caroline: bloomberg's mike sheppard across what we anticipate to be the latest announcement out of the white house. coming up, more on tiktok's looming band, its impact on other social media platforms. will be speaking with wolfe research to give us an impact on the likes of snap and meta both trading higher as oral arguments continue in washington at the supreme court. this is "bloomberg technology." ♪

caroline: welcome back to "bloomberg technology," i am caroline hyde in new york. i want to focus on a macro story. jobs strong, 256,000 added. we are down 1.9% on the nasdaq. apple, nvidia, what will be announced from the white house on further limitations on exports from nvidia to the rest of the world. a keyport driver on the green side is meta.

that is feeding to our key story. tiktok, what to expect today with what is happening over in washington. supreme court hearing arguments about the future of tiktok. that plays into meta's hand if tiktok is banned. it feels like in the court it is not going in the direction of tiktok. >> we are only halfway through. the lawyer for the creator aspect of the lawsuit is making his arguments. the first hour was tiktok's lawyer. i listen to the whole thing. i do not listen to a ton of supreme court oral arguments but i get the idea that tiktok is in trouble. a lot pushed back -- it is also a data and security issue. they did not seem convinced on

what the tiktok lawyer was presenting. caroline: certain analysts have theorized what would happen if tiktok is banned. money goes to snap but the key winners are meta and youtube. can you spell out the winners and losers? kurt: you hit the top three. i think meta, google and youtube are probably 1a and 1b because they both have products in youtube shorts and reels in meta that are tiktok clones. easy to migrate to one of these other services and they already have massive advertising services. they do not have to do a lot different to capitalize that all of the money going to tiktok will have to go somewhere else. there is an obvious reason why meta's stock is up. people see there is a real

potential of a mass migration from tiktok to reels. caroline: kurt waggoner with the latest from the courts and what it means. we are pleased to welcome shweta khajuria, wolfe research managing director. take us through what you are reading with the tea leaves of the arguments. it does not seem to look at for tiktok. shweta: i agree. listen to part of the arguments this morning. i know it is far from over but my understanding -- i do not do a lot of the supreme court hearings either -- but my understanding is the tiktok lawyer did not come off convincing enough for the justices. not only around free speech but the privacy and national security of u.s. citizens. with that we are already seeing stock reactions as it relates to the internet.

snap is up, as is meta and google. we think there is an 8%-10% upside to meta's earnings-per-share. over 50% of time spent can go to meta reels as the number one beneficiary. youtube shorts, 30% to 40% could go to youtube short. there is a 5%-8% upside to youtube's revenue. snap, the reason it has gone up is because of the volatility of the impacts that could have on a higher base. caroline: of course eyeballs and focus of a consumer means more advertising revenue. ultimately, is meta getting the bulk of the advertising revenue

currently in tiktok's direction? shweta: what we are hearing from advertisers right now is the budgets have not yet migrated, even with the upcoming risk of tiktok being banned. i think advertisers want to see the ban being implemented and then transition the ad dollars. what we are also hearing is work has already begun. caroline: as marketers are not changing yet, there are 170 million u.s. users of tiktok that like the product. does it just overnight go away? have you thought through the action of if it is banned what technically happens? shweta: i believe it will be a moderately fast leak. i do not think it will be

overnight that overnight budgets are shut down in part because there still will be some tiktok users in the u.s. users will not be able to download them and service providers will say we do not support tiktok but there will still be millions of users and eyeballs on the tiktok platform. and ad dollars going from tiktok to meta may not all happen overnight as people figure out how they want to shift their budgets and what kind of targeting they want to do. my guess is it will take a quarter or two before most of the budgets will move. caroline: at the start of the show we had frank mccord junior join from project liberty. as he is aware he has made the only u.s. bid for tiktok, asking bytedance to sell. have you thought through the likelihood of bytedance selling tiktok? shweta: based on the arguments this morning it did not sound like that would be a high likelihood outcome.

whether that was even a possibility in a 90-day window or a 180-day window. i put it in a low probability window. i'm not sure if they want that to happen. if we are speculating on who the buyer could be i would not be surprised if elon musk makes a bid. he already has twitter and he has the resources to do so, too, but i do not think that would be a high likelihood scenario that they sell the asset. caroline: amazon is another name that has been thrown out as a beneficiary of purchasing tiktok. how do you judge the day reactions of these companies based on the potential -- what did you mention for meta, up 8% -10% for revenue? shweta: i think it will be

sustained. today's hearing will be -- whether the supreme court tells us their decision today or not the way it goes will be telling in terms of the likelihood of the outcome because it seems like it will be binary, whether tiktok will be banned or supreme will have a hearing. if tiktok is expected to be ban ned, the rally stays and there will be a lot more interest from investors on meta. the potential overhang on the meta and snap stocks over whether tiktok will be banned or not will be lifted. ed: shweta khajuria of wolfe research -- caroline: shweta khajuria of wolfe research, great to get your take. we will dive into amber venz box 's perspective. how tiktok affects the economy. this is "bloomberg technology." ♪

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caroline: this is "bloomberg technology." you are looking at

a live shot of the principal room. you will find the podcast on the terminal and online. this is bloomberg. as the supreme court is hearing arguments on the future of tiktok in the u.s., let's take a look at the app's impact on the economy. >> creators from all around the world come to tiktok to be discovered. to find an audience, live their dreams of fame and fortune. in addition to launching countless global stars, the discovery and authenticity that defined the tiktok experience have also made the platform a home for serious issues that are vital to the global good. caroline: let's bring in the ltk

co-founder, amber venz box, who knows a thing or two about content creators worldwide. amber: i have to start out by acknowledging what is happening with the wildfires in l.a. our thoughts and prayers are with the huge part of the community affected today. we have 10,000 creators operating out of l.a. county. i would be remiss not to acknowledge they have had a struggle at the start of the year, both how they will operate out of their homes, the products they will show to their audience and thinking about re-homing their communities. caroline: well said, thank you. having discussed -- a lot of your user base has to pay attention to what is happening in washington at the same time. amber: exactly. on the tiktok side, we have had nine months to prepare and we have educated our creators what

they can do to get their arms around their audience. we call it meet and keep. they have been educating their communities. with our tiktok creators, they have launched their ltk pages and produce twice the number of video in 2024 versus the year prior. i would describe that is making a house a home. they want to make sure when the community transitions to the ltk have a place they love and they are giving tons of content. our tiktok creators earn twice as much last year as the year prior. they have a way to transition the community. on the brand side we have seen more spent in creator marketing in 2025. that was a finder from our northwestern study. we pulled 8000 and those -- we polled 8000. goldman still says by 2027 they

expect the industry to be worth $500 billion. the brands are seeing it as a channel play and a platform play. caroline: as you mentioned money marketers are looking at ltk but where else will ultimately benefit? if for example it is banned, is it meta that benefits the most? amber: i think the biggest loser would be tiktok themselves. they are losing $8 billion of revenue and they are based in asia so that revenue is going to their homeland. the biggest winners, i think meta will be the biggest winner. i echo your other guest. cmo's are putting their dollars with the creators themselves. those creators are on average on four different platforms today and it will drive different

content into the other platforms. i think meta will be the biggest winner, followed by youtube and then on down the line. caroline: what is interesting is ultimately how creators themselves are not only using tiktok and other platforms to tell people how to circumvent any future ban -- potentially with the use of vpns -- but bringing -- have they managed to convert the youtube audience -- not the youtube audience, tiktok audience -- over to youtube or instagram ahead of this? amber: ltk thinks about us like the home base for all platforms. where can they gain ownership for that community? what is happening with tiktok is a revolution. it might go away entirely but what we have seen over 2024 is evolution of every other platform. whether you are looking at youtube shorts or what happens over instagram, it is no longer

a place to follow people. it is an interest-based entertainment platform. users have been looking for where they will house and have ownership of their audience. we have seen in q4 the last three months of the year a tremendous uptick in a tiktokers applying to ltk to get launched so they can have their home base there. it is a trend across the entire creator universe. they have to get their arms around the community. the most important thing about the ability to get to do their business is dirigible engaged audience. the problem is not just on tiktok but across all platforms. caroline: what is interesting is there is a smaller probability bytedance does it decide to sell. if it does and we have a change in ownership and algorithm, how sticky do you think the content creators actually are? amber: i believe it is an

algorithm preference. there were unique things about tiktok when they started around music. those things have become more ubiquitous. we learn a lot by looking to europe. tiktok does exist in europe but they have more restrictive privacy over there versus what we have in the united states. tiktok has not been able to grab hold of the european customer the way it has the u.s. customer. if you have an algorithm that is informed by less data is is inherently lesser. it becomes an algorithm choice for u.s. consumers. i expect the patterns we have created as individuals with how much time and how frequently we pick up our phone -- i just read the average american user picks up their phone 2200 times a day. they are looking for entertainment. i do not think they will stop that behavior. there will be a lift and shift to other platforms.

the platforms are not the ones that pay creators. teir own business and revenue streams -- except for youtube paid at scale or in any meaningful way by the platforms directly so it is critical they own the customer relationship so they can create businesses around the reach. caroline: amber venz box, i will let you go back to one of the 2200 times you will pick up your phone today. coming up, we will head back to d.c. to get the latest on the tiktok arguments happening in the supreme court. this is "bloomberg technology." ♪ illiant? boring. think about it. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. that's why pnc bank strives to be boring with your money. the pragmatic, calculated kind of boring.

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caroline: tiktok fighting for its future in the supreme court. let's bring back bloomberg's tyler kendall who is outside the court. the solicitor general is now testifying. tyler: she is representing the federal government who is arguing this is an issue of national security. we just heard the lawyer representing tiktok creators wrap up a statement to the supreme court.

jeffrey fischer made similar arguments. this is an issue of freedom of speech and potentially curtailing the freedom of expression for the 170 million users that use the app. the justices are signaling they are skeptical to that argument. they have brought out the specifics of the text of the bill saying this is not an outright ban. the app could still operate. it is a choice and the app has to divest to maintain its platform. this text was originally introduced by the china select committee on a bipartisan basis over national security concerns. we heard chief justice john roberts say congress is not concerned about what is on the platform but what the federal government calls a adversary holding. caroline: what is also intriguing is president-elect trump and where he feels a delay

should come in. tyler: exactly. a lawyer for trump filed a friend of the court brief requesting there be a delay and citing trump's negotiating skills and saying he could reach an agreement between the parties to get this done and address national security concerns. if the ban is put in place the question came up if trump could to it further. it was written for a 90-day pause if there is a deal on the table but that would have to materialize. he could instruct his department of justice not to enforce it but that could open him up to legal scrutiny. he could work with congress to repeal what they put in place but that seems highly unlikely considering the bipartisan support this bill received. i'm talking about unlikely allies coming together to push it forward including hakeem

jeffries and mike johnson working hand-in-hand. caroline: bipartisanship perhaps has its limits. tyler kendall, we thank you. we have more from d.c. you are analyzing how it is unfolding inside the court. did anything strike you? sarah: let's go back to the legal framework. they are being called to decide on a request from front to pause the start of the ban january 19. they will have to decide if they pause the ban and if they do is it just a temporary pause so they can figure out the underlying issues of the law or is it a permanent ban? they are also being asked by tiktok to ponder the national security versus the first amendment rights question. tiktok is really bearing down hard on the fact that this

reflects the violation of people's first amendment rights. then you have the justices coming in and saying actually, foreign actors do not have first amendment rights the way americans do. there is a lot of parsing. is tiktok considered a foreign actor? it is technically a u.s. company owned by a chinese company. there is so much to unpack. caroline: very briefly, probability of 30% the tiktok wins. do you have a probability? sara: i think our analyst is calling it correctly. as tyler mentioned the justices are expressing skepticism about the first amendment arguments and raising concerns about national security arguments. it is true we do not have as much visibility on what the government feels is most concerning about tiktok but we have had a lot of examples of

propaganda, data security, privacy and more. caroline: sara with the latest from d.c. we appreciate it. that does it for this particular edition of "bloomberg technology ." you will find the podcast on the terminal and online. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're living with diabetes, i'll tell you the same thing i tell my patients. getting on dexcom g7 is one of the easiest ways to take better control of your diabetes and help protect yourself from the long-term health problems it can cause. this small wearable... replaces fingersticks,

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>> bloomberg real yield starts now from new york city. i'm vonnie quinn.