>> benjamin netanyahu says a deal to pause the war has been

finalized. government officials will gather later today to sign off on it your beijing's pivot to stimulus help china meet its growth target for 2024 but the property slump and u.s. trade tensions continue to loom and rio tinto and glencore have been discussing a potential combination and what could be the biggest mining deal in history. good morning. european futures are looking to build on the solid picture yesterday. gains added to the european stock index and the u.s. close was mixed. softness coming through for the nasdaq 100 bit more optimism in the session today although

arguably fewer catalysts for these markets. european futures looking to gain just .1% and the ftse 100 looking at 38 points, s&p futures stateside looking to add .2%. with nasdaq 100 futures up .2%, ending the session thursday in negative territory. we will have a look at what's happening in terms of the u.s. treasury story and of course the pound remains in focus and the u.s. tenure currently .461. we heard comments from chris weller of the fed saying they could still cut in the first half of this year if inflation data aligns with what they are looking for poor -- brent at $81 a barrel, set for four or possibly five straight weeks of gains. solidly look -- solidly above $80 a barrel, adding .4% so far

in the session and bitcoin above 100,000 on new lines crossing on the incoming trump administration and how they may prioritize the crypto space once trump is inaugurated. up 1.2% so far in the session. the china data certainly in focus. they have that 5% growth number and the stimulus towards the back end coming into play and proving supportive even as the real estate sector remains in a slump. msci asia-pacific down .7%, mainly in china up .4 and the nikkei in japan under pressure and the yen remains in focus as expectations continue to build that the boj will go with another hike next week at that meeting, .155 now the dollar currently up against the yen .2%. the major story and confirmation coming through from netanyahu

that a deal to return hostages held in gaza has been reached and said government officials will gather later today to sign off on that deal. he had previously accused hamas of reneging on parts of the cease-fire agreement, risking its completion. the group says it remains committed to the deal. let's cross over to tel aviv. standing by his oliver crook. we have been hearing from the prime minister of israel. is the support of netanyahu enough to get the deal across the line given his coalition partners and some of their views on this? >> this is going to be one of the key factors within israeli politics about how the war is continued or is stopped and this is to do with the fact that this coalition is being held together by benjamin netanyahu's party and some very far right parties who want to continue to prosecute the war and say

pausing or halting it at any point before hamas's eradication would signify a loss for the israelis but it seems as if netanyahu has gotten enough concessions from hamas with that sort of last 24 hours. it was not clear whether this will go over the line. we understand this had to do with details about prisoner swap's and veto rights and who would be released. that seems to have been resolved. whether or not the rest of the cabinet -- the rest of the cabinet gets behind this is not known. there may be some conditions put on by the right wing, basically forcing netanyahu to commit to continue the war after six weeks. all of this is up in the air but the reality of the situation is there's an immense pressure to get these hostages back and

pressure from the israeli public to go forward with the cease-fire and if there's a hampering of that it is possible also that the government could rule in a minority status if some of these parties step out of the government and would probably gain support from other lawmakers on the central side of israeli politics. >> with all those caveats and potential outcomes, if they get this deal signed in israel, what are the next steps sunday and beyond? >> of course it is historic and huge. this would be a meaningful cease-fire and this is supposed to be a roadmap basically to end the war entirely and it is the first of three phases of how it's been envisioned as laid out by president biden and sketched out by a number of the negotiators from the egyptian side and others working towards this. the mechanics of this is sunday

if it goes into effect you will get the official cease-fire, no more fighting within the gaza strip, the release of some hostages and then you will get a few hostages released every sort a few days over that time and as that happens there will be the release of prisoners being held by the israelis. we're understand there will be more than 1000 released. and critically as you have the israeli military that will basically withdraw from the populated areas within gaza, they will still stay within the strip to the east side but will begin to withdraw from the populated areas and critically this will also mean humanitarian aid will flow through in much higher volumes into the enclave of gaza where more than 45,000 people have died since the beginning of the war and as everyone has been reporting the humanitarian conditions are extremely dire and it's critical to get that aid in over the next

few days. >> oliver crook on the ground in tel aviv, thank you for that update your today macroeconomic data out of china because the economic expansion did not beat the government's 5% target. a stimulus push and turbocharged activity in the final quarter of 2024. let's bring in terrence baker in beijing. what stood out to you, james? >> the things that stood out to me where you saw the continuation of the story we have had all year, which is the strong industrial side of the economy, strong at ports and lackluster retailing consumption side. but you did see industrial production pickup in december and we saw that in the pmi's and that is partly due to the stimulus domestically and also

the huge amount of exports china shipped out last year, $3.6 trillion last year, driving growth. don't look at the 5% target that they met but the nominal gdp value. that is telling you we had deflation last year, second full year of deflation and the gdp deflator was about -0.8 and going forward that's the more important number to look at than the inflation-adjusted growth numbers so they were able to meet their target and underlying that prices are falling, company profits are following, wages are falling and people are not confident about this economy and last year you saw government stimulus going through, government spending going through and then exports coming through in helping the economy. donald trump comes in on monday and if he puts tariffs on chinese exports immediately or

sometime this year it will take away from that and it will be the government that has to step up and do even more to fill that hole in the economy. >> is it your feeling on the ground they are looking at the data that this is at least an economy that's gotten over the hump and there are challenges coming up but with the hard work being put in now. is that the right way to think about it? >> i think it's premature to say that. there was a housing sector pickup in the last quarter. we saw prices start about amount and a pickup in sales in december and november and that's really due to the stimulus measures and deregulation of the housing market announced from the end of september through to the end of the year so that was definitely having an effect but sales still fell. you saw construction falling for a 50 year in a row. and in 2023 also fell more than 20% so you are still seeing

massive slumps in the housing market and that is going through to the industrial sector and other kinds of things so it is an improvement but they are not out of the woods and you do need to see a turnaround in household and housing prices for people to feel more confident and to start spending again and in -- unless the government does more. will we see a big jump in consumption and confidence? that's doubtful. >> still big questions around the economy. thank you. to a major deal now that ties to china because rio tinto and glencore are said to be discussing combining their businesses and if successful it would rank as the largest ever mining deal and create a behemoth to rival bhp. china is shipping a lot of iron ore in particular to that

economy. more on the details around the scoop with paula -- with paul. what is behind this potential deal or tie up between rio and glencore? >> in the space of about 12 months we have seen two massive potential deals come to light. last year there was bhp and anglo american and today from our london bureau we are breaking that rio tinto and glencore are in discussions. we don't know whether those discussions are live at this moment but we certainly know that discussions have been had and as you said this would be one of the largest if not the largest merger or deal in the mining sector in history. one party is valued at $103 billion and the other close to $55 billion yesterday and bhp

has 120 $6 billion so in excess of $155 billion in this sort of merger and that knox bhp from first place as the major mining globally. at the heart of this story is copper, the key metal used in batteries and electrification amongst other purposes and it's an area were both major companies have identified huge future growth so last year bhp went after anglo for copper assets and this year, these discussions we have been hearing, it is rio tinto chasing copper from glencore. and at the heart of it there is one particular thing that featured in both transactions, a massive, high quality coppermine , so it's all about quality and resources of copper.

>> dr. copper is central to this. what are the potential hurdles to getting a deal across the line? >> deals of this size and in the mining industry are never smooth sailing necessarily. there is a level of complexity to this and the first thing that jumps to mind is one to vested their entire coal portfolio by 2018 and if it were to merge with anglo american it would inherit a massive amount of high-quality coal. does not really want to get back into coal and many analysts are saying they don't see that that's entirely likely. that would mean that that huge coal portfolio would need to be spun off or kept with the current owners and shareholders. the second is this geographical spread of assets, another thing i have been talking with

analysts today about. glencore has a lot of assets in africa. rio tinto really does not want a presence where these assets are. and that is a question that would need to be resolved and thirdly is the quality of all of their minds and assets. it has over 130 different minds and many of them line the third or fourth quartile in terms of quality which means every now and then they get shut down when there's a mining down cycle. rio tinto was only looking for tier one and two assets and that's really where these copper assets of glencore are. >> paul on some of the complexities of what could be one of the biggest deals -- the biggest deal in mining history. and scott bessent expressed full

alignment with president trump's economic goals at his senate confirmation hearing. we will get more details next. and after the u.k. unveiled a plan to become a world leader in an eye, we will speak -- in ai, we will speak with the cofounder of a tech company. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back. chris waller says the u.s. could lower rates in the first half of this year if conditions can 10 you -- if conditions continue to be favorable. let's dive deeper into the market reaction. we have come a long way to where

we are now in terms of moves in the bond markets. how to the markets interpret these comments? >> it was interesting to see those comments are reminding us the fed could cut. it was only tuesday we were talking about the possibility of the fed hiking this year. it shows the market got a bit over its skis in terms of pricing cuts. we have seen a big rally. we have seen the five-year sector outperform. biggest move since july 2023, 14 basis points. so a big repricing going back to reminding ourselves that if inflation continues to fall we could see a fed cut. waller reminding us that the march meeting is very much alive. and he also said that if the data continues we could see three or four cuts possible from the fed for this year, backing a quarterly pace, so for them

cutting in march very much aligned with that. also weighing into the politics a little bit, he said he was not necessarily worried about trump's policies leading to inflation, so this is yet a number member of the fed saying they are not necessarily worried about those tariff policies reigniting inflation later in the year and coming up against these fed cuts. >> and that is a key. fed officials have increasingly started to factor that into their thinking. we heard from the treasury secretary nominee argue for extending these tax cuts. let's take a listen to some of his answers on other policy issues. >> the united states will not default on its debts and if i'm confirmed, the fomc should be independent. i will be on board for taking stations up, especially on the

russian oil majors. if we do not renew and extend, then we will be facing an economic calamity but on see bdc's i see no reason for the u.s. to have a central-bank bank digital currency. i firmly believe that if confirmed and with your counsel in support we can usher in a new and more balanced era of prosperity. >> so none of the drama or at least very little of the drama we have had with some of these nominees in the early part of this week. he seemed to broadly sail through this process. he appeared to perform well. what were the takeaways for wall street? >> for the treasury market it was notable there was no discussion on treasury issuance. we were worried about this because in the past he's been a

critical voice against the previous treasury secretary, janet yellen, for issuing so many tragic -- so many t-bills. we know parts of the curve have been vulnerable recently. that was one catalyst we could see for a further steeping -- steepening. we have to wait for the quarterly funding announcement but he did talk about tax cuts, calling them the single most important economic issue facing the u.s., very much in line with trump on that and also did back fed independence. he said it's a good thing the federal reserve and foi mode -- fomc is independent and reiterated tariffs are a useful tool. he does not see them as inflationary so again going back to the comments we have heard from fed officials backing the fact that he does not see them as inflationary and sees them as

a tool to combat unfair trade practices and had some pretty scathing words to say about china. take a listen. >> china is the most imbalanced economy in the history of the world. they are in a severe recession/depression. they may have -4% disinflation and they are attempting to export their way out of that as opposed to doing the much-needed internal rebalance. >> so that was scott bessent being critical of china trying to export their way out of the slump, dumping cheap goods world wild -- worldwide. he seems like he would be a supporter of tough tariffs on china. >> on that point seeming to align with janet yellen and warning about a flood of exports out of china. valerie tytel, thank you very

much indeed, breaking down what will be heard from scott bessent. wall street's six largest banks returned $100 billion to investors last year, the most since 2021. the blockbuster earnings next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> bank of america's fourth-quarter profit has exceeded estimates boosted by high fees and strong net interest income and morgan stanley also seeing fourth-quarter profit more than doubling. what stood out to you, charlie, from these numbers? >> superlatives for wall street's biggest banks.

jp morgan was the first bank in u.s. history to clock $50 billion in annual profits and goldman sachs equities trading desk at their best quarter on record and we heard citigroup will be buying back $20 billion in shares and that's an interesting trend we have been reporting on, which is that last year those large banks return $100 billion in buybacks and dividends and that speaks to something interesting we have seen in the banking sector throughout earnings season, which is this idea of confidence so in order to buy back shares and return dividends, in a lot of ways these banks have to be confident, particularly on the buyback front, in the sense that they have to feel comfortable with the amount of capital they have. they can return it to shareholders and that of course helps boost share prices. and this is something we have

been honing in on in this earnings season as we enter what seems to be a new era in politics but also on wall street , it seems like these banks are increasingly confident about capital and that that in game they had been campaigning against, against this requirement to hold more capital, they may not need to do that and can in turn return that to shareholders so we can go for a -- from a period of confidence. >> thank you very much indeed on the dividend and share buybacks coming through. nigel farage and elon musk. we will sit down with that party. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> good morning. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe and these are the stories that set your agenda. benjamin netanyahu says an agreement to pause the war has now been finalized. and government officials will gather later today to sign up on the deal. and beijing's pivot to stimulus mode helps china beat its target but tensions continue to loom. and rio tinto and glencore have been discussing a potential combination and what could be the biggest mining deal in history. let's check in on these markets. european futures pointing to modest gains after rallying yesterday by around 1%, lifted by the earnings story and a more benign picture on inflation. the ftse 100 and the u.k. looking to add 42 points.

s&p futures pointing higher by .2% after dropping a similar amount yesterday. nasdaq futures falling .7% by the end of thursday. let's have a look at the yen and the treasury space. u.s. treasuries relatively stable so far in the session. we have seen a bid around the belly of the curve, a 14 basis point move lower in yields. the pound her mains in focus at 120 two with further softness for the currency and brent set for four straight weeks of gains above $81 a barrel. and bitcoin trading above 101,000, up 1.3%. some lines crossing on trump looking to make this a policy priority. brexit architect and reform u.k. party leader nigel farage says elon musk is a force for democratic good and a hero but

should not be seen to be dictating what the u.s. treasury department should do. here are some of our interview. >> in america, you know, billionaires have more influence on society than in britain. there's no question about that. musk is a very powerful figure but i also think he's a hero and if you think back to the last election where the hunter biden laptop was there, the evidence was clear of criminality, the evidence -- all sorts of things were there that deserved to be in the public domain, especially his father's relationship -- >> that's a separate issue. >> it isn't. all the social media channels forbade any conversation about that subject, the americans had

an election with no debate on this issue. musk has bought twitter and free speech is coming back to america and the rest -- the western world. so he's a force for good in terms of open democratic argument. when it comes to power influence i think the important thing is he must not be seen himself to be dictating what the treasury department do and that is important. >> a lot of people would disagree with the point around freedom of speech, particularly the europeans are deeply concerned about misinformation. >> anything we disagree with his misinformation. i know. we must all support globalism and open borders and if we don't it's misinformation. i don't buy it. >> that was nigel farage, leader

of the u.k. reform party speaking on the bloomberg u.k. politics podcast. it was a wide-ranging interview. there were a number of topics you touched on. this is a key question, the relationship. he knows trump well and has become slightly closer to musk even though they have had the recent rupture. what's his view in terms of that relationship going forward? >> it was interesting that he's is more cautious on elon musk after that row about the donation to reform u.k., nigel farage's party in britain. he was talking and had a view on the world's richest man, what his role in the trump administration should be, i.e. that he should not be seen to be dictating policy within the treasury department. he did not have a view about trump and musk's relationship

together but he was interesting on doge, for example, that if this department or government efficiency within the u.s. will be a major fight in the u.k. if you have a lot of ai replacing humans in terms of the work that they do. i think essentially it's taken nigel farage 30 years to become an mp in the u.k. and now has five in parliament. he's trying to move to the right to take the ground that's been held by the conservative party in this duopoly of power for 100 years in britain between labor and conservatives. he has advertised his closeness with donald trump. one of the real tangible benefits of their relationship potentially for him and for the u.k. as a whole and then the other wide-ranging discussion points that we had were around the reform u.k. economic agenda for the u.k..

they obviously delivered that in a manifesto contract with voters before the last general election. the numbers do not reveal that much. there's not a witch -- not much detail about what their actual policies would be for britain. we had a whole discussion about that and i think those are still some of the questions he needs to answer. >> there were also questions around the city of london particularly in terms of talent and immigration. is this someone who is this someone who was softening his stance? what are his views on the city of london? he was a trader at one point. >> he was and he made the point that his party he says is nonsectarian, nonracist. it does seem to be that he is softening his stance on immigration, talking about how he is in favor of high skilled immigration. that is his pitch now

essentially but it's also about what skilled workers means and other political parties within the u.k. have tried that before unsuccessfully. and it is costly to try to return people and we have seen that in the u.k.-rwanda policy and the italy-albania policy so it's not that there's no consensus on limiting immigration in the u.k. but no one has been able to deliver it. >> let's play the soundbite. >> if we want the city of london and our tech sector to be a world leader, if we want to turn this place into one of the crypto trading centers of the world, all those things, there's a lot we can do with british people but we will need higher skilled people from other parts of the world and i have no problem with that at all >> so that was nigel farage commenting on immigration, kind of

softening his tone to some extent on immigration. why do you think he is moderating on that and what else stood out to you in terms of his views, particular you on the economy and the city of london? >> in terms of the vote share he got last year, that was largely taken from conservative voters. not that he is not trying to get more left-leaning voters either. there were some typical sorts of jobs. he talked about rachel reeves being rachel from accounts. so he's also trying to cause problems for keir starmer and the government here but the other big takeaway is he's offering benefits on the relationship that he has with donald trump, saying we can negotiate our own trade deals. this has been a really important point for britain. we wanted a trade deal and that has never really happened. he is saying there are prizes on offer if the u.s. once a reset

on the european union and getting closer to the feeling european union will be difficult but he is saying with the right government that there would be sector specific trade deals for britain with a trump administration so he is dangling this benefit. >> rachel from accounts a little bit harsh. thank you very much indeed. you can listen to the full interview on the bloomberg u.k. politics podcast. download from wherever you get your podcasts. the u.k. unveiled a wide-ranging action plan for ai, one of the aims expanding computing capacity 20 full by 2030. our next guest says the u.k. in europe are ready to seize the opportunity to lead the ai revolution. richard joins me now with the experience in terms of investing around the space.

what did you make of this ai strategy? we had the ceo of some company on and he said he thinks the u.k. is well-positioned to be a powerhouse in ai and technology. others have said there was not enough detail in terms of spending or what they can do for talent and data centers in the energy component. what do you make of that? >> i think it's a great rallying cry for the u.k. to be a leader globally in artificial intelligence and sets a great target and i think that it is a great sign of positivity about the space and the opportunities that are very real. >> is there enough detail to convince you this is a government that's really committed? how much money do you think they should be putting forward and how serious should the spend be? >> we should be directing government procurement towards ai and particularly entrepreneurial companies in ai,

moving government procurement away from large companies towards companies that will increase efficiency and help us cut nhs waiting lists and so on. so i don't think it's about more spending but directing procurement. >> if we look more broadly at how ai has evolved and that theme has evolved particularly through the lens of an investor like yourself, what are the key trends you are looking for? >> ai is going mainstream. that belittles it but there was work on foundation models. fundamental technology building blocks, nvidia chips, cloud providers, all of that in place and applications have been

limited for ai. we use chatgpt but there have not been a lot of business applications. though started in 2024 and are going mainstream. >> do you think we will get the killer ai app this year? >> we will get multiple whether it's in contract reviewing contract creation, whether it's in machine maintenance, servicing machines, video processing, i see multiple areas . >> and your focus is on software-as-a-service. are there any companies out there that you look at and think you are going to get gobbled up by this ai revolution? some are clearly going to be vulnerable. >> some will be but the most agile ones are adopting ai and retrofitting ai to their

processes so in general companies are able to do that. >> in terms of diffusing this technology, what do you see as the key bottlenecks? >> that's a good question. i think it is completing the product so that customers can be confident that the product is going to work predictably. >> in terms of raising capital, particularly in the space in which you operate, how is that being directed? what are you hearing in terms of your investors and their willingness to step up and spend? are you raising more this year? >> as a venture investor, i am

always raising capital. we are in the process of doing that. we are planning new funds. investors are interested in enterprise ai and cybersecurity and for the most part they will follow where growth is in there is growth across these sectors so they are interested. >> richard, thank you very much indeed. there is plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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>> welcome back. after a turbulent start to the year for u.k. markets, let's get some analysis with an economist at jefferies with thoughts and insights on this economy and how

things have adjusted. looking back on the week that was where do things stand? the pressure on u.k. assets seems to have eased. is the rout we saw in the early part of this week now in the rearview mirror? >> it is too early to say it's in the rearview mirror. u.k. assets will take this relief rally they are seeing and we will take what we can from it but i know that looking at the data a lot of the challenges are still not fully behind the u.k.. there are reasons we think it was too extreme. when you look at market pricing, we are seeing more of a moderation, but when you think about the fundamentals of the u.k. economy, stagflation, those things remain unanswered and i don't think we can say this is over.

>> i want to push you on your view on some of those. the 10 year yield is up about 90 basis points. is there a level you look at that spells crisis? >> we are looking at levels specifically that are normally around the long end, areas we have previously seen blowup before, and our estimation -- what we think is if we were to see yields approach 6% that would already signal panic and you would start to see panicked factions. so those are the levels we are looking at and we are still quite a long way away from actual issues of liquidity or market stress but that does not mean it will not pose an issue

in other areas as well. >> so 5.24 on the 30 year. and in terms of the inflation and growth story, this is a stagnant economy do you call it stagflation at this point and does that stretch through the year? >> i think the challenge is inflation is running quite high at the moment even though it's fallen 2.5%. the bank would have been happy with inflation staying around these levels and drifting higher as it likely will in the next couple of months and growth is also quite low so when you take those things together, it feels like we are in that environment. the question is about this growth outlook we see. is it because we have high rates bearing down on the economy and if the bank continues to loosen

the pressure, will the economy bounce back? that's the question we are trying to answer because of its about restrictive rates that's not necessarily stagflation. >> how boxed in our the epc or is this a boe that could look at the data and say we need to go harder and faster on cuts? >> they are starting to come to the view that they might need to but the real challenge for them is the data is not about -- validating that view. we saw andrew bailey a couple months back before we had these moves talking about the fact that the boe could become more activist and saw alan taylor talk about the fact that he thinks we might need to do some kind of preemptive rate cuts as

well so you can see people were having those views but the challenge for them is focusing on them because we are still having services inflation well above 4%, wages above 5%, so all those data are suggesting the bank of england needs to remain gradual. we can tell maybe they have a drive or desire to go faster so i still think they have that bias, which is important. >> we did make get time to touch on tariffs with the u.s. and linkages with the fed's views but thank you for walking through urinalysis and what it means for the boe. they're funny more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> of course, the usa is the most important ally for the european union. >> i will try to anticipate relations in these fields. both american and european consumers. >> i hope to convince the next u.s. administration that we have everything to lose from a collective trade war. >> the geopolitical landscape and europe as a geopolitical power. >> we are looking forward to cooperation with the trump administration. >> some of the new figures at the top of the european commission weighing in, a key question as we count down to the inauguration of president trump on january 20. what it will mean for europe.

here's a picture of the growth differentials now between the eurozone and the u.s. and the gap that has widened. the leverage that gives incoming president trump in terms of his expected negotiations with the european union. to what extent will he impose tariffs on this economy and what impact will that have? that chart illustrating the growth picture that's come through for the u.s. versus europe, not getting back the european picture to pre-covid trends. that is the advantage the u.s. will have in these negotiations and the further impact of additional tariffs as well. data suggesting they hit the target for 2024 but a reminder of the pressure on the real estate sector and the additional headwinds of tariffs. stimulus had an effect. the export engine is kicking into gear but will that be

derailed by tariffs as trump has propositioned? let's have a look at what's happened in terms of the moves around the sovereign debt in the u.k.. you have seen yields particularly in terms of the 30 year coming down just in the last two days by about 20 basis points. will that be sustained? that continues to be in focus for us and investors. the opening trade is next. we will walk you through what's happening in the middle east geopolitics with a focus on a deal that could be implemented in terms of the cease-fire sunday and we will work for the data on u.k. retail. that's coming out. this is bloomberg. ♪ types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working.

you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one. let's go boys.

the way that i approach work, post fatherhood, has really been trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families, like my own. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. ♪ ♪

>> friday morning, i'm guy johnson alongside tom