tom: it is 10 a.m. london, 5:00 a.m. in new york. u.s. markets are closed for martin luther king and the holiday. welcome to "bloomberg markets." it is inauguration day on in the u.s. incoming president donald trump is up to be sworn in washington. and he is set to declare a national energy emergency to unleash domestic production. tiktok restores u.s. services after president-elect trump vowed to delay enforcement of a ban and grant another 90 days for the chinese app to find a u.s. backer.

a gaza ceasefire has begun. thomas releases three hostages in exchange for 90 palestinians held in israeli prisons. let's get to the market reaction right now, to the geopolitics, the lead up to the inauguration and what we have been hearing about china-u.s. relations with a view on crypto given the gain for bitcoin so far. bloomberg's valerie tytel with a finger on the pulse. what stands out in the session today when it comes to the way equity markets are shaping up for the week ahead? >> it is a interesting afternoon where we get the details of executive orders from donald trump that have been rumored. he mentioned last night in one of his pre-inauguration celebrations that he will be signing up to a hundred executive orders today. how many of those will be friendly to the cryptocurrency market? we have seen such a rise in bitcoin this morning reaching record highs just a few hours

ago $109,000. it will be interesting for the trajectory for the u.s. dollar because if he does focus those orders on domestic policies, we know that there are a huge amount of dollar longs in this market all bold up on the fact that we will get tariff announcements. if focuses on domestic policies instead of international trade, maybe we get some downside shift on the dollar on disappointment out of the gates that we do not get anything hard and fast on tariffs. all eyes what these executive orders that he will be signing. tom: it is all about trump in terms of the market moves today. the conversation between xi jinping and trump led to a positive session in asia. there is a question how long that should be sustained and there is a question about that national energy emerging to. she pressure on renewables in europe. you have to wonder why there is not more priced in. this administration will not be favorable towards renewable stocks. let's talk about the china-u.s.

part of this. the gays that came through in the asian session. what do you make of how much volatility we should expect when it comes to that relationship and the layering across to the equity space? >> the optimism was around the fact that trump and xi held this phone call. trump hailed it as a success on friday. perhaps the percent chance that we get a blanket tariff on china is diminished. maybe trump is wanting to get some deal done with china without having to slap these on. we did see the yuan strengthening off the back of that which means there is less likelihood of harsh tariffs. maybe there is less likelihood of more china stimulus to come and that leaves room for the yuan to strengthen. interesting session in asia. it sets the tone that we might be disappointed today when it comes to further tariff announcements. tom: on the yuan there have been calls that they may get to eight

to early pressure if tariffs are imposed to a high degree and that trade seems to be less in the spotlight, as you see strength come through for the chinese currency. valerie tytel on these markets thank you very much indeed. let's get back to the world economic forum. political and business leaders around the world are gathering in the swiss alps for the world economic forum. bloomberg's joumanna bercetche is on the ground and she is joined by a special guest. joumanna: that is right. a special guest. lots of conversations to be had on the sidelines of davos. joining me is his excellency faisal alibrahim, the minister of economy and planning in saudi arabia. we have a lot to get through but i am going to start with the major geopolitical development in the middle east region and the fact that a ceasefire has finally gone into effect between israel and hamas. many are hopeful that this could be the dawn of a new phase for the middle east in years to come. how do you see things? faisal: thank you, joumanna, it

is great to be here again. any step towards peace is a positive step. we have made calls for laying a clear and irreversible path towards more prosperity. it is clear that the middle east and stability will be imperative for global growth and that is why we are here to discuss. joumanna: how is saudi arabia viewing the return of the trump administration? trump has talked about energy declarations and perhaps broad-based tariffs. faisal: the kingdom and the u.s. have long-standing strong relations that spans eight decades. it has been strong regardless of which administration is in office. we look forward to working with the second trump administration as we have on important work. including the challenge the global economy is looking at such as tepid growth. tom: there has been talk about whether saudi arabia will join the brakes unit.

so far, nothing has been done on that front. faisal: it is important to keep in mind the kingdom is always focusing on fostering global dialogue. we have been invited to the brics and many other multilateral platforms in the past historically. we assess many aspects before a decision is made and right now we're in the middle of that. joumanna: looking ahead at the saudi economy, obviously, there has been a massive diversification push.whenever i speak to you and your colleagues we talk about the nonoil sector, specifically, which sectors will be driving saudi growth? faisal: vision 2030 which is our program to basically long-term restructure our economy is on track and moving with a lot of momentum. one of our focus areas is building more human capital, having human centric growth, other is diversifying the economy. if you look closely, the nonoil economy is growing, more sources of growth are being added from

tourism, and sports, also more long lead sectors such as mining, industry plus shipbuilding, auto manufacturing. these are proving the power of diversification. our numbers the quarter before would not have been the strong if it was not for the political will and the work put in to reinvigorate sectors. joumanna: do you think the international investment community see what is going on and are encouraged? we speak to many people who come to the kingdom for fundraising as opposed to deploying and mobilizing capital into saudi arabia. faisal: the kingdom is a global investment powerhouse but people are looking for smart capital coming from saudi given the strong sovereign wealth fund, but our wealth fund is investing locally to start new sectors and that is attracting investors. investors are putting in more effort, time and energy into the kingdom and are inspired by what they are seeing, especially the youth. joumanna: yet there is still

some major megaprojects, projects like neom that are demanding a lot of investment from the saudi side. but at the same time, you and i have spoken about this, that has been re-prioritization of spending to account for the funding needs of these megaprojects. can we continue to see saudi arabia issue and borrow more on debt markets? faisal: two things, joumanna, the kingdom is committed to long-term planning. we shifted from short-term to medium-term fiscal frameworks to long-term for the first time in a long time. at the same time there is agility. we have had ambitions for sectors. they overachieved their ambitions, tourism achieved their number seven years early and now that is increased to 150. there is things we didn't plan we have succeeded in such as hosting the world twice in 30 years with expo in 2030 in the world cup in 2034. with the prioritization toward

better economic outcomes without jeopardizing our vision 2030 robustness as a plan is important. with this comes a clear and communicative financing and funding plan that includes engaging in a proper and healthy manner with debt markets. joumanna: do you worry about balance sheet deterioration, the debt saudi arabia is taking on both at a state and off-balance-sheet's as well? faisal: our financial and fiscal planning is improving as we go. today we have a clear program moving forward and a clear debt program that is always revisited. the essence of vision 2030 is planning with confidence, delivering with optimism but more importantly managing with prudence. joumanna: the state have been pretty articulate about the desire to gradually reduce their stake in aramco. what other criteria are you looking at in order for these selloffs to go ahead and how frequently can we expect these share sale's to happen? faisal: what i can tell you is

the priority of the kingdom for men vision 2030 is diversifying our economy. that means the utilization of all of our assets and capabilities. i don't know of any immediate plans to continue the ipo program. that is something left to the show hurled builders -- shareholders that will committed to in due course. joumanna: thank you for making time for us on the sidelines of davos. tom, of course, many other fascinating conversations to come but great to get insight from his excellency in saudi arabia. tom: joumanna bercetche on the ground for us, middle east horizons anchor, in conversation around the diversification demands and needs of that saudi economy. letting more interviews coming up through the week from joumanna and the team. coming up, daniela costa of goldman sachs, we will get a view around capex into 2025. how much is that driven by the

industrial policies of europe, we focus on aerospace, data centers and ai. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: u.s. markets are closed for the martin luther king holiday. meanwhile, asian stocks gained following a call between u.s. president-elect donald trump and president xi jinping in europe. stocks aren't lower having started on the front foot. that's despite the optimism and the decent session over in asia. looking ahead to trump's inauguration, policies around tariffs in focus, and of course the news today that he will be likely declaring an energy emergency to give his administration more powers to

push through with greater and more pronounced drilling and production in the u.s. that will be the hope at least for the incoming president. daniela costa, head of european capital goods equity research at goldman sachs, joined us for a view on how the tariffs conversation for shape industrials in europe. i want to start with a here and now around this news that the trump administration could announce an energy emergency. you see renewable stocks in europe selling off heavily. the likes of siemens and vestas, enel currently down 4.5%. i just wonder why investors were taken by surprise. this is an administration that will not be favorable to renewables but will double down on fossil fuels. daniela: yes, thank you for having me, indeed i guess people have been anxious for some time regarding what happens with the ira and utilities-related policies. at the moment, people are balancing out potential risks about lesser nubile investment and is it wind or is it zillow

solar? from the european side, industrial exposed names have green exposure and it is not as clear what would happen in terms of her nubile's. you still have demand because of data centers and artificial intelligence. people have had a hard time making a hard cut and are deciding this at the moment. tom: how vulnerable ultimately are the renewable players to potential on picking up that inflation reduction act in the u.s. or is it overstated at this point? daniela: the power equipment makers, cable companies, companies that do transformers converters and other things if you believe there is still underlying demand power will increase because of the drivers i spoke to you will need infrastructure. the infrastructure in many places is several decades old. way past what you would consider

the useful life of assets. this is why there are still pockets, for example, cables where we see significant investment even if the power mix might be slightly different. tom: what is the tariff threat to those companies, how vulnerable are they? the energy demands are clearly there for data centers, the buildout from tech companies, they are not pulling back certainly not this year, so that energy peace is there but the tariff threat is also building. daniela: first towards the renewables and equipment to connect grade. things like cables do not transport very well so you do not import a lot of that into the u.s. a lot of it has to be made local. we might see further investments on building up and strengthening local capacities, either from european or other companies. in terms of equipment, not all the parts come from outside. a bit different in terms of solar panels and others but on

the industrial supply chain a lot is made domestically. more broadly in terms of tariffs across the broader industrial world, you have to consider that a lot of domestic manufacturers rely on the second and third tier suppliers that might come from the outside, so it is not obvious that european companies are necessarily a disadvantage. they have more costs in europe because of where their headquarters are but this might be according to our analysis in the parts that we cover of industrial companies is maybe a mid single-digit percentage of sales rather than as big as people think. tom: you cover aerospace and defense in europe in terms of industrials, how should investors be thinking about additional fiscal spend a to support the defense infrastructure base of europe, particularly from pressure from incoming president trump, how much is priced into stocks at this point and how much could be a catalyst? daniela: as a broader team we

cover aerospace and defense. it is one of the best performers already in the past two years given the situation in europe. and the visible need to replenish stocks that have been sent to eastern europe. there is a strong commitment from many countries to meet 2% of gdp spending as per nato requirements. that continues at the moment to be an even bigger focus. we do expect that is a sector where we will continue to see strong pickup in capex going forward. tom: daniela costa, goldman sachs head of european capital goods equity research, with the analysis and the details coming through in how we should be thinking about capex in the industrial space and vulnerabilities around tariffs, but that need to build the energy infrastructure of the u.s. longer-term, thank you very much indeed. still ahead, anna rosenberg of a monday asset management, on the

geopolitics of the incoming trump administration. how that new leadership team could reshape global geopolitics as the ceasefire between hamas and israel. we will also get views how to think about the ukraine-russia conflict and trump's role. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie. happy monday. a ceasefire between israel and hamas has begun. hamas released a three hostages yesterday in exchange for 90 palestinians held in israeli prisons. president biden and president-elect donald trump both claiming responsibility for the ceasefire, with trump set to take back the white house later today. he reportedly already has plans to keep the deal on track. let's get more in terms of geopolitics, the analysis, and bring in anna rosenberg, head of

geopolitics at amundi as it management. the ceasefire deal is now underway. what is your level of confidence that this ceasefire can be sustained when phase one? anna: i think it will be sustained the next couple of this absolutely because primarily this is now on the israeli side. the israelis have now embraced the deal which i think there was a lot of political opposition domestically in israel to the deal. now that it has been crossed, there is not any reason to block the deal from moving forward. i think we will see a lot of talks. tom: when it comes to toxin conversations, we know that had been the call, and this is ripple through markets today to the upside between president xi jinping and donald trump he framed it as a good call with the chinese leader, how do we think about the -- is trump ultimately the moderating force against the hawks he has lined

up in his cabinet now? daniela: we have good relations with some leaders and with xi in particular so we have a base case that we call a relationship that is on decline overall but it has rays of light along the way and this is the kind of rate of light we are seeing. also, the invitation of exide to his inauguration was a signpost that he wants to start things the right way first and foremost but the direction of travel is clear, china is seen as a key strategic competitor for the u.s., and the relationship will continue to decline the next four years even though we have some good mood music between trump and xi.that direction is set tom: for four years ahead. i wonder if musk will be a channel for china ultimately to trump? anna: yes, possibly, we have a lot of different dynamics but there is a consensus in the u.s. administration. and all the advisors around

trump, which is that china is a strategic competitor and needs to be contained. so we are likely going to see tariffs over the next four years introduced to limit this dependency on china in strategic sectors. tom: do you think there will be gradual and moderate tariffs or the 60% banner headline number? anna: the 60% number does not make a whole lot of sense because there is not a whole lot of room for negotiations. i would expect gradual tariffs being implemented because the goal is to strategically decouple. you need to allow businesses time to adjust to that, so it only makes sense to do this in a gradual way. tom: is the israel-, ceasefire, anything within that template that can be applied to russia and ukraine for trump? anna: it is a complete we different ballgame. russia-ukraine is a much more complicated situation. for example, you don't have good leverage against russia which in the case of israel-hamas we had

with hostages. tom: do we get a ceasefire ultimately in ukraine? anna: it will be a lot more difficult than what is currently assumed. we get much easier than a proper peace deal which is a low likelihood but it will take time. tom: cannot rosenberg on geopolitics and the challenges ahead for the incoming trump administration. rules big about the dominance of the dollar as trump returns to office with jeremy stretch of cibc on the fx markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing.

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committee at his hearing last week that maintaining the dollar as the world's reserve currency is critical to u.s. economic health and the nation's future. little bit of downside pressure on the dollar benefiting some other currency pairs in the session. jeremy stretch joints now, head of g10 fx strategy at cibc. the longer-term view, at least the last few months since september, is dollar strength and pronounced, up 8% versus the euro since september up about 9% versus the pound in a similar timeframe. our dollar? trades looking overstretched at this? point is too much priced into the greenback? daniela: i wouldn't say too much priced in but we have seen a stunning rally through the course of last year and that coincided with u.s. yields moving up significantly as we repriced the broader narrative in terms of inflation and tariffs. obviously, that u.s. exceptionalism. we have seen that afflicted in

terms of positioning, so we have significant aggregated dollar longs. perhaps not as close as last year but close to it. there is an opportunity we have seen a little bit of profit taking but once again you see investors thinking about the ramifications of trade tensions and tariffs even if we are not perhaps expecting them to be in the blizzard of executive orders today, but it is an ongoing issue that is still the case that the dollar has resilience but i would not inspect that resilience to last through the course of the year. tom: the resilience is there, the long dollar positions you are not seeing those being flushed out anytime soon. if you do have a view may be second half of the year, you see softness coming through that starts to wane, what is the cleanest way of expressing that? jeremy: short-term you want to be short those that are most exposed to tariff risks, obviously counter to the majors that are the most susceptible to

those uncertainties in the near-term. as we go through the second half, as we see diminishment in terms of u.s. growth outperformance relative to elsewhere, perhaps we can see some other majors performing a little better. so there is a lot of negativity priced into the euro as we speak. tom: too much? jeremy: i think probably is, i think we see another move lower but i don't see an obvious reason to breakthrough parity. if we see another run down to 1.0 two, may be lower, that provides an opportunity to load up on a slightly longer term trade on that predication that the u.s. growth story will slow a little bit and the risks about tariff uncertainties playing out in the euro zone are largely discounted. tom: what assumptions are you making about the ecb because markets are pricing 100 basis points of cuts through the end of the year. our markets ahead of themselves? jeremy: i don't think it is, where we would differ from the market pricing is the way the fed has been priced.

that's where we think there is mispricing in terms of -- the sort of the degree of action -- tom: that goes further than markets expect? jeremy: we do, we think that is the mispricing that may well be relevant, so we are not concerned about an overt inflationary spike amplified by the tariff story. if we are talking about tariff gradualism, that plays into that narrative to an extent and there is discussion about a transactional nature. and we will see those trading partners looking at trying to alleviate those tariff risks. there is still more scope to be proactive from the fed than the market is pricing, and i think that is the narrative that will play out. going back to that strong rally in q4, that was predicated on u.s. yields going up. if we see that yield story diminish and those spreads starting to narrow in, that removes some of that bid premium for the dollar as well. tom: what are you seeing for positioning around the pound

given the challenges of u.k. assets in recent weeks? jeremy: we have seen paring back in the way the market has been positioned. there is a lot of negativity priced into sterling. this week will be hugely instructive in the context of things like the flash services pmi. if we see resilience in that services pmi reading, and if you look at the components in terms of discretionary spending within retail sales stated last week, that suggests the backdrop was not quite as weak. tom: the headline numbers were terrible. jeremy: they were disappointing absolutely, that was in terms of volume, there was always an issue about seasonal adjustment in the ons data. i like to delve down more into the detail, avoiding the headlines, looking at that discretionary spending which is still holding up reasonably well. if you look at the data on the housing market, that showing signs of improvement. we can see this guilt recovery extending further. we see more added back into the bank of england curve in terms

of rate cuts, that is constructive. tom: factoring more rate cuts, 65 facebook points -- face points for the boe. don't think that degrades. jeremy: that provides more of a growth trajectory and eases those fiscal challenges. if we think back to just why the gilt market was getting roiled at the beginning of the year that was because of the fear about both inflation and the growth narrative. if we start to put back in a little more in terms of the bank of england story, we get more of a growth trajectory and less concern about another fiscal event around the obr budget update on the 26th of march. that provides a positive feedback loop. just of the simplistic argument of saying it is all about where the bank of england is, i think needs to be nuanced. also, overlay that with the fed story, and that does provide you

opportunity from a cable perspective one sweet work through the current low in the cycle. tom: anything looking mispriced in the fx space at this point? jeremy: as you say, there is a lot priced in terms of the rise of the dollar. that still leaves us mindful. it leaves us also looking forward, i think will be interesting how the boj plays out this week. tom: friday decision. jeremy: we may end up with a average height, that classic case of the boj have hiked, or do we go now and dollar-yen going higher rather than lower. that is worth keeping in mind in the context of the upcoming session. tom: jeremy stretch with analysis on the fx market of cibc. president-elect donald trump is poised to declare a national energy emergency unlocking new powers to boost u.s. production. we will get more views and analysis of what the implications of those emergency measures will be for

production in the u.s. and global energy markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ prudential has been helping protect people for generations. ♪♪ we helped the lost generation find their way. the greatest be great. we watched boomers grow. [laughing] we are x, y and z. and this january, a new generation begins. generation beta so, now what? we help protect their life's work, like no generation before.

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♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets," i'm tom mackenzie in

london. the oil market pricing for uncertainty as it waits for the start of donald trump's second term. prices steadying after climbing to a five-month high last week with brenda currently hovering at around $80 a barrel. checking the pricing right now and you see a print of $80 .46. wti down 0.2%. joining me for the latest on these oil markets is senior executive editor for energy will kennedy. we will start with executive action that we are hearing reportedly that trump is going to enact around an energy emergency in the u.s. the u.s. has been pumping more oil under the biden administration. what does that mean in practical terms? >> you are right to say that it is hard to say what the

emergency might be. it is a climate of energy abundance unparalleled in history and you see that in natural gas prices which are four times higher in europe. tom: four times higher? >> the u.s., one of its great advantages is cheap energy prices, but it is rolling back bidens modest agenda to curtail oil and gas production and accelerate the energy transition. effectively, that means deregulating the oil and gas industry allowing drilling in federal lands that were protected. rolling back the efforts to protect u.s. waters from offshore drilling. one important step people have been talking about is ending a moratorium on new lng export terminals. we expect that to be reversed very quickly. that might be part of this. most people think, as you rightly say, with oil and gas production near a record anything he can do to encourage more production is marginal. tom: brent is up about 10% since the end of last year, since the

end of december. what are the key drivers to support? is that a demand or supply story? >> the most important driver of sanctions the binding administration made in its dying days on the russian oil industry , they were very material, they sanctioned 130 oil tankers and there is a 40 in the oil market that it will shorter-term curtail oil markets. we can see india and china the biggest customers of russian oil making inquiries from suppliers in the middle east because they are worried about it. the other thing is demand remains fairly healthy. the u.s. economy is doing quite well. china demand, despite the well-publicized problems in china's economy, is relatively healthy in the opening weeks of the year and it has been called. cold weather does drive oil demand in parts of the world where people use fuel oil. i think $80 is a better

position. don't forget people were gloomy about the oil outlook for the rest of this year. there was a lot of predictions there would be a surplus and there may still be. opec has continued to keep barrels off the market to keep prices relatively healthy and keep the market in balance. it looks relatively successful. the saudi's will want oil closer to $100 than $80 but for most of the group, anything above $80 is probably ok given the wider context. tom: and on china, you are suggesting demand is holding up better than many have suggested, how much of that demand is going through to the real economy in china? versus being put into reserves. how much of it is going to refinery parts of the business out of china? what is the breakdown of that china demand right now? >> clearly demand in china has a lot of shorter and longer term issues around the economy and the energy transition. the point i was trying to make is that purchases look

relatively healthy considering how gloomy people have been. the broader context is challenging. the switch to electric vehicles for cars and to gas for a lot of heavy vehicles and trucks is curtailing demand, but relatively healthy, people are flying and the chemical industry is healthy so it is a nuanced picture in china. tom: will breaking down the key factors to be thinking about across energy markets. we will bring you some analysis from amrita sen, director of research at energy aspects. let me start with a question i put to wail on this energy emergency executive action the incoming trump administration will push through in the opening hours of that presidency. what you think the material impact will be in the short to medium-term. how significant is this for the global oil markets? jeremy: i think the challenge will be the details. we know there is going to be some form of tariffs including

on canada and mexico. that is definitely giving the market a bit of pause today. we don't think even if it is announced, it will be implement it, because it is extremely bearish for u.s. refining. midwest refiners are entirely dependent on canadian heavies, gulf coast refiners don't have another outlet as big a size has and incoming president trump has a smart and knowledgeable energy team. i think these will get water down over time but these are negotiating tactics. philip mentioned that trump is overturning any kind of restrictions on federal land. that is more of a headline grabbing thing at the end of the day, federal land accounts for less than 10% of u.s. production, and the reality is that u.s. production particularly shale vamp is not going and it has nothing to do with what trump can do, it is geology. we are expect 400,000 barrels

per day of oil growth but it is starting to get flatter. even the likes of chevron have said next couple of years oil is going to be flat. if you asked what the biggest difference is between this presidency trump is about to take versus the last one, u.s. production will be the biggest one, back then it was going at one million barrels per day, over the next four years it will be flattish. tom: so you will get less growth in terms of oil production in trump mark two verses trump mark one. the growth will come through from gas and we will talk about possible changes to the legal structure around those export terminals for lng. what is the sycophants particularly sitting in europe as a major customer? amrita: we are absolutely expecting the overturning of the pause the bite in administration had put. that will simply allow more lng

exports if there is demand for it. we didn't necessarily expect any kind of project that was already in the works to be paused. this is for newer projects. i am in asia right now and the asian market is definitely looking forward to that, in terms of being able to receive more lng. having said that, tariffs are probably a bigger focus for the market right now for everything, all energy products, the market is expected tariffs on china and what that does to oil and gas demand growth as well. tom: we are about a week since those additional restrictions were put on russian oil. what is the impact as a result in terms of barrels off the market as a result of those additional sanctions? amrita: we have not seen barrels off the market yet. remember there is a 45-day unwind period. we are expecting about half a million barrels per day of flows

disruption to asia. we are not saying that production will be cut by that much because russia can put oil, and water, so we need to be very clear about that this is a trade flow disruption. just my visit in china and india you can see refineries are scrambling to get alternative oils from march onwards. we have seen the backwardation in crude curves to buy backwardation, the contrast is five dollars, it shows acute tightness in the market, so if anything the price has not reacted as much because people leave trump will overturn it. we in fact believe the triumph administration might tighten sanctions on russia to bring them to the negotiating table. once these things unfold, if anything, prices will go higher but the disruptions will materialize once you have the unwind pump up. because 157 tankers sanctioned, insurance companies sanctioned,

not probably it is the most material sanctions package since the war. tom: how do you think about the mixed picture when it comes to china? we know that focus on electric vehicles, the buildout and graham, but on the flipside, the consumer is starting to look more confortable, those measures toward stimulus seem to be coming through in the data at least around the edges. how do you weigh all that up in terms of the support china could provide oil markets? amrita: i was there for a weekend i will say sentiment is definitely better than last year. last year was the worst sentiment i have ever seen out of china. as you said the fiscal stimulus is definitely helping. it is slow, it is gradual. we have been calling for modest growth in chinese oil demand this year, less than 300,000 barrels per day. remember one thing, even with the ev take up, gasoline demand is still growing.

very small, but it is growing. we are seeing hybrid sales so it is not all about the ev's. since last year, it was as much about the economy just doing really badly, rather than all of it being about the green energy or the transition i should say. tom: amrita sen from energy aspects, thank you for your analysis on these energy markets, joining us from asia for that perspective. a reprieve for tiktok. trump giving the company a 90-day extension to find a new owner. there are complexities around the fate of tiktok. we will get the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." just checking on your markets right now. it is a flat session across european equities after a solid session in asia bolstered by that phone call between president xi jinping and incoming president trump. inauguration day today but also a holiday for martin luther king

day stateside, so european markets are going nowhere right now. u.s. futures pointing to gains. euro-dollar at 1.03, up 0.4% on the single currency. bitcoin punching through new record highs at 108 thousand dollars, currently up 4.5% on the biggest cryptocurrency by market cap. trump and his wife melania both issuing memecoins. make of that what you will but bitcoin is at fresh record highs. the chinese-owned social media app tiktok's had service report in the u.s. after going dark to comply with a supreme court ruling. the return after president-elect trump promised an executive order giving bytedance three more months to find an american buyer for the platform. joining us is bloomberg's senior executive editor for tech peter elstrom. this was the focus of so many people's attention over the weekend, tiktok users going dark.

the message has changed. can trump save tiktok at this point? >> there has been a lot of back-and-forth. we saw tiktok briefly go dark over the weekend for 14 hours, then it was restored after that. to be clear what restoration means is the company is continuing to operate, his partner oracle is continuing to operate but apple and google have made the choice that they will not put the app back in the app store. trump said he will issued this executive order and give the company 90 days to work out a deal but it does seem like a temporary reprieve. the legislation passed through congress last year was a bipartisan bill signed by biden. it required this to vestige or you'd the parent -- divestiture, you the parent company had to sell the app or it would check down in the u.s. it is not clear that anything is in motion with bytedance right now.

trump has had he wants to work on a deal but there is no evidence of progress so far. tom: ultimately does microsoft or amazon or an oracle have to come in and make a bid ultimately? there is a big question mark about the algorithm with china wants to hold onto. >> it is not clear who the buyers would be, trump floated the idea of the government would take a stake in the app, that does not seem feasible. remember that beijing, the chinese government that we covered for a long time, will not allow bytedance to sell any valuable technology including that algorithm, so it gets particularly messy around there. there is no sense that there is a deal in progress. there are not ongoing negotiations, so there is a long road ahead. tom: the story has much further to run. peter else from breaking down the fate of tiktok for us and the questions that remain to be answered. coming up, an exclusive

interview from davos. this is bloomberg. ♪ the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own.

in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. in the tool kit differently

and would be utilizing quantitative tightening and to a great extent they have. post covid $12 trillion came in the global economy from central banks everywhere and $5 trillion hoovered back out and leaves $12,000 sloshing around in the system relative to where we were before covid. adjusting that for larger g.d.p. and g.d.p. growth globally we need $3 trillion come out before we get to an equilibrium before we were before covid. the fed doesn't appreciate the quantitative tightening tool as

much as i do and as much as the markets do. ♪ ♪ tom: it is 11:00 a.m. in london and 6:00 a.m. in new york. u.s. markets are closed for the king king holiday. welcome to the bloomberg markets, i'm tom mackenzie, here's your top stories. it's inauguration day in the u.s. president-elect donald trump is gearing up to be sworn in for his second term in office. bloomberg has learned he's set to declare a national energy emergency to unleash domestic production. tiktok restores its u.s. service after donald trump vows to delay enforcement of a ban and grant another 90 days for the chinese app to find a u.s. buyer. a cease-fire has begun in the

israel-hamas war. three israeli hostages were we leased in exchange for 90 palestinian prisoners. let's get the market checked this monday morning with valerie and the focus is on softer dollar as well as some measures coming through, at least purported changes and let's start with dollar softness given the trump administration yet to be confirmed for treasury secretary and he wants to see a strong greenback. valerie: we look at disappointment at the u.s. dollar and we had so much gearing up for the dollar strength behind the tariffs and we get an eye on immigration and instead he leaves this tariff, the international trade part of his administration, if he leaves that quiet and doesn't give us new details, i think the u.s.

dollar is looking at the bloomberg dollar index on screen is ripe for some disappointment to the down side. the dollar has risen 8% since the trump trade began in september but it's still a favored macrotrade. if we look at cftc when it comes to hedge funds every week it seems to increase in dollar long positioning and is the part of the market most vulnerable for being upset. tom: we're told we're not seeing long positions washed out for the dollar, which is up 8% versus the euro since september and up 9% versus the pound. the u.s. dollar up 103 and not apparently yet and the conversation continues. bit coin, another fresh record. is this just as a result of melania and trump himself coming out with memes. what's coming out right now?

valerie: these political meme coins, bit coin reaching a new record high. this maybe could be the asset class we see more positive momentum going into today. if any of those executive orders that trump is expected to sign within hours of being inaugurated, they focus on making crypto currency a national priority and if they create a bit coin stock mile or create that crypto advisory council he's spoken about could be a positive momentum for crypto currency assets but very funny to think that he spoke that he would be telling us these hundred executive orders in that speech. he could be speaking quite a long time if he goes in detail on each of those. tom: that's a fair point and see how that transforms. a fresh record for bit coin. thank you. let's get to the world economic forum in davos, switzerland where we sit down.

haslinda: it's about trade, trump, tariffs of course as you alluded to and how those factors are shaping, influencing conversations here and investment decisions. you talked about kazana good to have you with us. we talk about the uncertainty of trump's policies an how is it shaping your own investment decisions? >> first we now know who the president is and help as lot. you look at the policies, you've got less regulation and lower tax rates and low energy price as well. that's quite interesting because it shows that rates may not come down a lot sooner and rates could be there longer and obviously you'll have a strong dollar going forward at least for this year. looking at investments, it does seem to say the u.s. as a market

seems to be a bit more attractive given the growth and running a budget deficit but you have a long growth and slow dollar and looks interesting for investments globally but does tell you that for the other market it will be tougher. in malaysia we rely on trade a lot with china. it's the largest trading partner and they'll be impacted quite a bit especially if the u.s. imposes additional tariffs. as we navigate we're focused on diversifying a portfolio but here's the background. haslinda: you say the u.s. is looking attractive, what is looking for you, is it still an amex seven play? >> from a public market it is. haslinda: it is amex 7? >> where do you go? we invest in public markets and private markets as well and that's quite interesting because at least the markets will be open for exits. there's more opportunity for

consolidation. these are areas that various asset classes look different in the u.s. haslinda: you want good exposure in international markets versus your domestic market in malaysia. is there reason to think the 60/40 ratio would change any way? >> we'd like to change that in the longer term, 60/40. we have been diversifying our portfolio and we've been moving our portfolio to developed markets particularly the u.s. and still more room for that and has benefits for us in the past and looking this way. haslinda: how does diversification look like? >> developed markets and public markets as well as asette class and you get to developed markets as u.s. and japan, it tends to gravitate to the u.s. haslinda: and in terms of crypto currencies which has risen to $9,000. is it and asette class you might

consider given growing institutional interest already in crypto currencies, bit coin in particular? >> yes, if you personally invest in it, you'll be doing quite well. but as a fund, we look at the depth of the market, depth of the currency in terms of the size of it. and i think it's still a way to go and because of that, you could see more volatility. so we're quite conservative. we are monitoring bit coin, crypto currencies, at least the players around it as an opportunity. but for investment there, i think it will be quite a while before that. haslinda: players around it, talking block chain or what is it? >> could be block chain or those that provide -- at least around the market, decentralized market is what i'm looking at. haslinda: volatility is an issue and trump in power, pro

regulation, pro crypto, isn't that enough to perhaps, you know, generate some interest in it and what would it take then? >> i think we'll look at the depth of the market. the size relative to other currencies or other asset classes, we have to look at the market as a deficit and right now i think not yet. haslinda: in terms of the risk in the asset race, what is the biggest risk out there? >> at the moment, it's looking where do you park your money? you have an allocation strategy which tends to be more hjorth short term but what happens in the long term? when i say "short term" it comes back to the current policies where people are looking at geography rather than asset classes more in terms of where you apply the capital. but at which point will it pivot and at which point do you have to look at your asset allocation on a longer term basis. that's something we have to look

out for and sometimes when you miss it, you miss the way there. haslinda: one of the big things in davos is a.i. and around the world billions has been pumped into a.i. is that the theme or graduated to quantum computing and the themes you're investing in, what would they be? >> we don't invest in industry themes but a.i. is a sector we're exposed to. haslinda: how big is the exposure championship superwhen you invest in the u.s. you're already exposed in that perspective and we are looking at some of the private market investments that innovate around a.i. you know, whether it's parties looking at how to train their models better and those that do find it more efficiently and looking at that space, around the a.i. space and a.i. goes

beyond that, you're looking at cloud computers and data centers as well. haslinda: let's talk about the domestic space and it's been quite of a resistance this comes to the privatization of malaysian airports. the deadlines have been moved again and again and eventually the conditions have been weakened. i'm wondering where are you with that and why the delay and what are the issues? >> it is being done by a consortium which is one of our companies in that consortium. i don't see an issue in extending it. that's quite typical and you do the deadline and encourages people. so face it, some people we speak to later on say i didn't know about the deal. so actually, it's getting the parties coming in. so i think this is something which actually is pretty interesting. i think the consortium's offer is the highest ever price since i.p.o. and is quite attractive and will be a matter of time

before they'll get it done. haslinda: does it mean the process now would be smooth sailing? >> the process is what happens after in our view. it's a value creation post any takeover. i think in terms of smooth sailing, that's a big challenge. haslinda: what is the plan for post privatization and how involved will you be in decisionmaking? >> our consortium u.m. group one of our companies together with e.p.f. as well as j.i.p. are the main players working hand in hand with the government. the amount of investments other airports in the region have made, indonesia have done $8 billion and thailand about $7 billion. in the last five years malaysia has done it hads 5.3 and is in

ringgits, not dollars. the whole system of airports is really underinvested and a lot more capitol technology for i.t. and improving processes. a lot more to be done that can enhance it. and more strategies working with the local air to see how you can create that hub where you have international passengers and regional passengers coming in. haslinda: part of the decision depends on how the shareholders feel about it. are you confident the shareholders will not withdraw a acceptance to it? >> it is the highest price ever and going forward when you have institutions -- a company requiring a lot more investments , that will impact

dividend policy. if you're investing in it for a particular investment strategy and going forward it will be different, that's something you really have to consider. haslinda: one small question, it's been such a turnaround to malaysia's economy, so much interest and investors coming in, the best performer in asia last year, do you think that was sustainable and quite a turnaround in a quick time. >> the fundamentals are there. first you have foreign and direct investments and the funds investing domestically. you have consumption as well with more disposable income for i guess the civil service as an example and you have the fundamentals to push it through. yes, the macroglobal environment is a bit tough but resilient enough when you have a country which is 14% of exports to china and 12% to the u.s. and others have a strong domestic economy and has a strong momentum to do

well. haslinda: thank you for your time. an m.d. of the southern trust fun and we're waiting for khazanah to reveal their return for 2024 but it will top 5.7% and ain't too shabby and could be higher than that, i think. tom: not bad. haslinda on the ground there at davos and the ability of u.s. stocks to continue to award investors. coming up, global stock rising and bit coin surging to a new record high ahead of donald trump's inauguration later today. we'll catch up with mr. malek of palace capital advisers next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie in london. waiting for a slew of executive orders change as president trump is sworn in. one quote, we are concerned about the prospect for a continuation in the rise of bond yields under the new administration. we are concerned about the potential for a steep rise in yields amid expectations of more government spending and tariffs over the coming years. we are joined by gaurav. thanks for your time. there is a view widely held that the equity markets provide a course correct for trump. do the bond markets provide the same kind of guardrails to this incoming trump administration?

gaurav: it's hard forethe bond markets torn between fiscal and monetary policy. on the fiscal side there is uncertainty as to what exactly that will shape up to be. i've been covering bond markets for years and it's the most volatility and how investors are hanging on toe each release to determine the markets. we've seen a significant boost in terms of rate expectations in terms of the number of cuts and what if we see rate hikes. there's uncertainty around bonds now, more so than we've seen in the long term. tom: how much assurance can the markets take from the phenomenon we see repeatedly that when you get to a certain level on yields, 6% or above investors

come in and want to lock the yields in and is there no some kind of comfort we can take from investors around that? guarav: they can but the reality is the market in the last 10-15 years has been used to ultralow yield. five or six today feels very different from five or six if you're look in the 2000s going back in time with the 1990's. 6% feels a lot but once you start seeing the 10 year go past five you're looking at a different environment in my opinion. the markets will be a concern at those levels as they're not used to it and would suggest are investors beginning to reprice the credit risk for the u.s. and those fierce will come into play and create a challenge. but you would say bond investors would come in and say might as well lock in at the 6% level.

tom: until that point, you see yields -- can we assume you see yields grinding higher with 460 at the close on the 10-year, do you see it grinding higher in yields in the weeks and months ahead? gaurav: we have a range of 4.5 to 5% and for the year i think it is 4% but now it feels more like 5%. inflation as you know has not been tightly controlled as expected. if you think about inflation coming in at 2.5 or 2.7 by the end of 2025, throw in rates being around 100 basis points higher like 350-400 and add in basis points for premium and you're looking at 480. and it's a reasonable range and would be reasonably rational given the risks with the u.s. economy and of course the policy uncertainty.

4.5 to 5 seems like the right number and i think i'd be a bit more concerned if it goes past 5 because past 35 would signal less control the fed has on the policy of inflation. and the fiscal situation would be modest, too, and indicate greater demand for premium -- for the risk of u.s. daughterring. 4.5 to 5 is the base case but which part of the equity markets are there yield to 5%? gaurav: you've seen the mortgage rate climb up to 7% and created jitters and the slow grinding of the housing pocket comes into question. consumers will feel a little bit more pressure. not a bad environment really for banks given that credit is a bit more concern and you think of

delinquencies in that area but income costs are up. i don't think it backs the max 7 that much. the a.i. bandwagon is tied a lot to cash based, somewhat equity based financing in that segment of the market. that segment does continue and look reasonable in those circumstances. so i think that is where we'd be more interested in and probably shifting and thinking about more of those sectors in the market that can give you growth at that level and have the ability to self-finance their investments, those would be the most attractive agents for us to look at it. the last thing i'd add is industrial and defense complexes will continue benefiting from long term changes on a global basis in terms of defense spending, in terms of in sourcing manufacturing, i think those will continue unabated

even in the face of the high yields. tom: what is your regional bias especially defense spending and there is a view europe will have to spend more than it has particularly because of trump and round up valuing and is europe, equities have held up well but in terms of the macrodata, is europe at any way compelling at this point? gaurav: it's a bit more challenging and is an area you have to be selective and -- let us think of the macrothings that can make a difference. i think the u.s. is leading europe in terms of a.i. investment and if you look at the average company, the amount they're investing, there's good reason to believe europe will accelerate that looking at 2025 and 2026 and is something to look at from a european perspective. any improvement in the

macroenvironment, the luxury sector, will benefit and a much better trading partner to the u.s. so things that are positive for the chinese economy, the incremental spending occurring in a.i., renewed focus on rebuilding, reconstruction, innovation are some reasons to be optimistic. the issue i have with europe is again i can go back to various points in time in the last 20 years it would be a reasonable case to say valuation is compelling and macrowill be better and then you get disappointed. so that's our challenges we think of europe in that context of selective investments, thinking of investing mostly in europe through other managers as in mutual funds in those areas. but again, looking at selective funds, selective areas where there is that combination of quality growth, some will take advantage of these themes around

a.i. i think those are areas we'd be interested in. tom: if you believe in that a.i. spend continuing in 2025, where do you invest beyond mag 7 if you want to widen the lens on that grouping? gaurav: most of the areas are indeed on the private side because there are public entities as wells that are interesting but in the near term what makes sense is we know factually, max 7 will invest in a.i. infrastructure. the electrification themes and others remain very exciting for us and like the incremental cutting through adventure side on new apps, new things that can power through innovation within smaller companies within the sector that could do with more

automation. but the electrification is electric and data centers continue to be an area that will likely power through as we look at 2025 and 2026. one area, what's the benefit that comes with a.i.? it feels like a sand stormy. tom: joining us from boston on inauguration day, king king day. we appreciate your time and view on these markets. plenty coming up including details on the cease-fire between hamas and israel. this is bloomberg. ♪

the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own.

in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways.

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie in london. european stocks are flat so far in the monday session. u.s. stocks are closed for king king day. in some martin luther king day. and we look at incoming president trump is going to declare a national energy emergency presumably to benefit the carbon industry and eventually pressure renewable energy. questions over the inflation reduction act and policy going forward. activity in the f.x. space, the dollar going down .02%. and european equity markets open on tuesday.

rallying .05% on s&p and bit coin punching through fresh record highs currently trading up 108,000, market cap up 4.5% in the session. let's get to the middle east right now where a long delayed cease-fire in the israel high hamas war has began with through hostages and 90 prisoners. we have connection issues that happen with live tv but know the cease-fire after wrangling did take hold certainly after the planned time frame for that on sunday. we know there has been a prisoner swap as well. this is the phase 1, phase 1 of three phases of a hopeful cease-fire deal that pushes farther into the future. let's get the details live on the ground for us. we re-established the connection. what is the mood on the ground, what is the latest in terms of this cease-fire and what the two

sides have been doing? >> so listen, tom, it's been a very tense 72 hours here in israel and you have to imagine around the region since the cease-fire was announced wednesday night there were a lot of snags hit along the way especially in the morning when the cease-fire was to take place at 8:30 and we understood the israelis were not getting the hostage list as part of the agreement but finally got it. in the hours during the delay several were fighting but the cease-fire went into effect 11:15 a.m. and held for more than 24 hours, the cease-fire that's been ages in the making and supposed to last for at least six weeks and if they do not come to a resolution to continue to stage 2 of this proposal that's been laid out by egypt and the united states they could extend that. but further, the state of play is over the next few days and

you'll get a few hostages released every few days and then you'll have prisoners being let out from the palestinian side and had the first three yesterday. this is where we spent our morning is at the border crossing at carom shalom and where the aid trucks will flow in and they expect 800 trucks crossing into gaza and 600 will be crossing behind me at that checkpoint. to give you size and scope there, tom, the average number of trucks crossing into gaza according to the aid group i spoke yesterday has been 50 a day and now it will be closer to 800 and would like it 600 a day at the same level before the attacks on october 7. tom: that's the surge in aid and around the expectation of the release of hostages in the day ahead. what's the expectation in israel

for us. the politics will allow and enable this cease-fire to continue into phase 2 and phase 3. oliver: there are so many facets and precious yourself heaped on and need to align in order for the cease-fire to go in the second phase. the first obviously is hamas and the idea respecting that cease-fire and something that will be closely monitored by the groups of qatar and egypt to make sure it happens and we had one of the ministers of prime minister netanyahu's cabinet and coalition resign in objection to this cease-fire deal, meaning benjamin net yahoo! has the report of -- netten yahoo! has a report of only two votes. netanyahu has a report of only

two votes. and we'll see what donald trump's posture will be, the new president of the united states in a few hours. you talk to anybody in israel, they're extremely supportive of donald trump and see it like his architecture and his pressure that made it happen when it happened. tom: that is a fascinating dynamic, the role of trump's team in getting this deal across the line. oliver crook on the ground in israel close to the border with all the details as that cease-fire continues to hold but question marks in terms of whether it can be sustained beyond the first six-week period. let's get more analysis on geopolitics and bring in terry hanes joining us for more on the cease-fire between israel and hamas and a look at the geopolitical tensions and challenges that will land on the desk of president-elect donald trump. let's start on the cease-fire and what your expectations are that this will be sustained

beyond the initial six week policy. can trump keep this going? >> i'm not that optimistic hamas and the region can keep this going. trump will try his best to do that but i don't really see it. you have israel, thankful today as ollie said, on edge. but, you know, you have a situation a large part of the israeli government and population want to continue the fight against hamas. hamas is way down but not out and trying to show that as much as they possibly can. taking a step back you have the iranians and you have even china which is supporting in funding here. you've got a situation where the houthis and proxies and the like, you've got a situation there's all kinds of incentives for people to want to continue to fight, to agitate, and so on

and not a lot of incentives for everyone to lay down their weapons. even president trump will find this difficult. tom: what is the iranian incentive to keep going, birch that the hughesies have been undercut and retrained by israel. terry: the answer comes in your question. the hamas attack on israel happened by the judgment of a lot of people in part because they saw a piece coming in the region from israel, the saudis and others and they wanted to do everything they could to undercut that. iran's interest is in continuing to under cut that, firstly. secondly, let's remember the threat in the background of a potential iranian nuclear

device. so i would judge that, iran wants to continue to agitate in the region. the agitation in part continues to pop up its own regime and may well be buying time for a change weapon, if you will. tom: it's interesting you touched on china's role in terms of funding and its proximity to iran, certainly taking a lot of iranian, russian oil as well. what do you make of this phone call between xi jinping and president trump, what do we make the china policy on this incoming government though it seems like trump wants a relationship with xi jinping and yet surrounded himself with china hawks, maybe musk is the exception. terry: the lesson you can draw is trump's policy will be or kind of is, a classic carrot and stick. if you look at the testimony last week, for example, what you

saw and heard was the china hockery, as you say, and trump's interest in wanting to confront china everywhere. at the same time he's trying to promote reconciliation and respect for the congressional pet tore/adversary. without which trump judges you can't make deals. there will be both of those things. i keep saying on other matters like tariffs, it won't be all one or all the other. here i think it's on china and very clear it's going to be carrot stick. tom: you think markets are pricing in that tariff. how vulnerable are these markets to the volatility? terry: i think what the markets don't quite understand yet, the markets are very focused on economics and tariffs, for example. what they don't quite get is the

tariffs are a geopolitical tool it and have been for years but ununabashedly a tool with donald trump p. what they don't get more broadly is the way the trump administration will be influenced strongly by geopolitics and national security. that's something they haven't seen since the cold war and that's kind of a new thought. and you know, to give you one example, the degree to which the defense spending will be up but spending for and support for the defense industrial base will be up i think is a little unanticipated. also, i point to your conversations a minute ago on energy. the energy -- the emergency nature of trump's energy focus is unabashedly national security and his advisers are already saying so. tom: ok. so that's a national security

play in terms of trying to get more barrels out of the ground on energy. in terms of the tech, it's interesting, you talk about the spend around the defense industrial space. the embrace of tech as well you say is a national security theme that we should be thinking about. arguably big tech or at least tech in some places has reason to want to see the defense industrial place give some space and open up to some extent for some of those tech players to have a greater role in terms of the buildout and spend on defense. how do you think about how big tech and technology comes together with that defense spend? terry: big tech is looked at as one of the primary big assets the united states has with this long competition with china. and trump is already publicly talking about the need to ramp up energy, for example, to

continue to support the united states' a.i. work. that alone gives you a pretty good hook into exactly how this new administration is thinking about the marrying up of all kinds of united states assets, both in its advantages and trying to rectify the disadvantages the united states has. one of the things that is going to take, i think, is probably a little bit of a deemphasis on anti-trust for tech and more understanding of what exactly they bring to the table and how they bring it to the table and how their strengths could be marshalled. tom: are markets underestimating the power of trump in these four years? we have the trifecta but you say his power will be constrained? terry: i think his power will be constrained. what people forget in the run-up

to election is trump comes into office as an instant lame duck and say that with no disparagement but can't run for re-election again so these are his last four years and has a practical political effect that he is less able to influence the pressure of congress, for example, to do what he likes. congress has the lead role in coming up with details of legislation, tax laws being a perfect example of this. there's a situation trump has a little less political power going forward but his ability to persuade remains large. he can maximize that advantage if he brings the public with him and continues to educated public on what he's doing and why he's doing it and tries to bring them along with him and will be a more effective in congress than

if he were to take a more conventional stance, i think. tom: a lot of expectation he'll be policy friendly to the crypto space and you see that playing again for fresh records for bit coin. is there a mismatch between what will be a chiefed on the policy front around crypto versus what we're seeing in the markets? terry: i'm very much a crypto policy naysayer which everyone is as positive about trump and crypto, i'm the one urging people to get back to earth. trump has basically done two things. one, he's given them sort of ad advisory counsel which in market is a kind of participation trophy and secondly, he's put out this meme coin i think of as more of a souvenir along the lines of some of the other things he does. the fact in washington is crypto

industry has been flashing a lot of money around but money doesn't automatically translate into influence and certainly doesn't automatically translate into a meeting of the minds in congress on what approaches have to happen and how they have to happen. they're nowhere near that today than they ever were. and secondly, the potential for criminal activity makes things more difficulties. tom: thank you. always appreciate your insights. very fascinating thoughts as we weigh out geopolitics with the crypto space and policy coming through from trump. thank you, terry. we'll head back to the world economic forum and we'll talk to the mobile deputy c.e.o. coming up. this is bloomberg.

♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie in london. business leaders are gathering in davos in switzerland for the economic forum. we go there now. germanna: very interesting conversations taking place and happy to say the deputy waheed joins me. waheed: thanks for having me. >> good to talk to you. i want to talk about that it was the most active fund last year in terms of overall employment at $29 billion worth of capital and why was that the case and can we expect the level of activity in 2025?

>> well, we always have been active and invest in other parts of the world. we look at the united states and they account for 44% of our assets of management. i look at the risk-reward and the united states is still the best risk-reward i see globally speaking but you see growth in asia and places like india and a resurge in japan and china as they cautiously think through how they're going to get out of kind of the evenness that they're currently in at the moment. i look and say listen, there's opportunity out there and when you match opportunity together with our these he's and out-- thesis and deploying capital, i see that as a recipe to deploy capital. we think about innovation and always have thought about where

is productivity going to come from? where are we going to see those businesses that are going to make the most difference globally speaking and sometimes that's in technology and life sciences or consumer or credit or wherever it might be. the truth of the matter is i'm cautiously optimistic which if you asked me 24 months ago might have been a bit different. >> you benefit from being a long term investor with perhaps less concern with short term cycles and today is the inauguration of president trump coming back into office. how do you think the term of the administration go with these long term themes you're focused on? >> the ability of being a long term investor is you can ride out any volatility or waves you might encounter. we don't know what will happen if there will be increased economic tension with china or what willing happen on the geopolitical front with ukraine and the middle east.

i remain confident with the mix we have in our portfolio, a mix of stable cash generating investments with some of the forward future looking investments we make, we'll be really well positioned. >> talk to me about what you've been doing in a.i. and obviously you've been involved in the space for a very long time. it's only the last couple years people like myself have been talking a lot about a.i. and regenerative a.i. but curious to hear how you think the landscape evolved and because so many people are interested in being involved in the a.i. space, the valuations are not as attractive as they once were. >> i'm not an expert but can tell you a.i. is changing the world in several different ways. number one, it's creating economic opportunity. number two, when deployed correctly will create time for people which is something really important to talk about. we think of investing in a.i.

related infrastructure or other pieces of the pie, at the end of the day, we want to make sure we deploy capital and that will & grace be future focused and a change the world. and starting in a.i., infrastructure. and what it's done is given us the ability to deep dive and hopefully understand what some of these trends will look like over time. and i can tell you one thing, we're confident a.i. will change the world. it's changing the way we work or we shop and changing the way we relate to other people and changing the way that frankly, we look at everything. there has to be economic opportunity in that. we are navigating that and hopefully we'll find the right way to do that. >> in terms of investment opportunities, are you distinguishing between early stage investment versus later stage investment because of what you just articulated?

>> the great majority what we're doing at m.d.x. will be later stage investment because it's focused on a.i. infrastructure. but in order to understand what's happening around the world, you want to keep your fingers in some of these early pies, if you will. there will be a bit of frontier investing to remain fresh in that space. >> private decreed sit a big area you've been evolving with the partnership with apollo and another area people seem to be talking more and more about. are there too many players in that space now? >> it's important with the number of players but it's how you manage risk which is how you distinguish yourself as an average player or you'll do very well. and we have six partnerships scattered across the united states, europe and asia, the single most important distinguishing feature is we spend so much time underwriting risk and thinking how we manage it. as we construct our portfolio,

i'm proud to say we've been able to manage it well and not take too much risk but over the last two or three years we've been achieving some good returns. it's been the best performing asset class. >> private credit has? >> yes, ma'am. >> when you think of your portfolio, where does it stem from how you invest? >> we create value and we like to be an active investor and that means serving diligently on boards and going beyond governance to help shift strategy where we see something. we have a forth polio that consists of more than 250 positions around the world. and what that means is when you're able to step back, you can spend time thinking about what the mega trends are. when we identify them, we try to

say hey, this worked in this particular sector, will we be able to transfer that and create value in something else? we spend time thinking about how we can effect that through our board positions and partnerships. >> thank you p. real pleasure to chat but. thank you for sharing your view on the global economy. that was the deputy c.e.o. tom: another great interview coming to us on the ground in davos. coming up, more from the world economic forum and hear from the c.e.o. of axis bank, coming up in a few minutes. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ a

the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation

that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways.

[captioning made possible by the u.s. department of education and bloomberg television] tom: seconds away from 12:00 p.m. in london and 7:00 a.m. in new york. u.s. markets closed for the martin luther king holiday. welcome to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie. here's your top stories. donald trump is prepared to take thest of office for a second time at his presidential inauguration today. a host of executive orders are expected to follow. a cease-fire in the israel-hamas war is underway beginning with the exchange of hostages and

prisoners. we'll have the latest from the region. and global business and political leaders are in davos with a.i. intelligence and global trade at the top of the agenda. u.s. markets closed for martin luther king day. asian and european stocks as well as u.s. futures gaining ahead of president-elect donald trump's inauguration today. european stocks have edged into negative territory and stocks down .01% and more coming through from renewable energy and securities taking a hit of the reporting that the incoming u.s. president trump will push ahead with a emergency energy move around policy to try and support the buildout production in the u.s., possibly to the detriment to some of those newer players and what it means for the inflation reduction act and what it means for investors exposed to that part of the sector. simon, let's start with the

dollar because it's interesting given what we heard, the potential likely incoming treasury secretary talking about the need for a strong dollar, today the index is down .02%. it's rally versus euro versus the pound since the end of last year. how does it set us up in terms of how we should be thinking pricing into the dollar? how much is priced in at the stage where maybe some of the bets start to be paired on the greenback? simon: that's a very good question. the dollar has been extremely strong and 8% up since september and is a lot behind that, the rising yields, the prospect of tariffs and kind of america first type policies people are expecting and there's been expectations built into the rise of the dollar and all the trades you've seen since the election, it's probably the most vulnerable because of the surge higher and a lot of expectations built in. in january, a lot of trump

policies and they've been built into expectations but few of the negatives. tom: you've been looking at a historical framework how to think about preinauguration day, inauguration day and after as to how the markets adjust. simon: in a torrent of asset publishing headlines, it's time to stand back and get perspective and use that for an anchoring view because things perhaps will play out differently. you look at the dollar and it tends to modestly rally between the inauguration and celebration and tend to taper off and we've seen a 8% rally and unprecedented and the largest period between an election and inauguration. that's the largest. yeah. huge amount of expectations. it's rumor versus fact and tends

to be a tight-end when the disappointment comes in and the dollar is vulnerable from that perspective, alongside the factinging is also very long. you look at the net positioning, it's the longest it's been 8-10 years and even if you look at the change of positioning the last month, it's ratcheted up and bit coin futures have seen a big rise and is another asset that could face a disappointment in the coming weeks and not to say it's the end of the rally but expectations are high. tom: some of the factors and similar forces at play for bit coin and the dollar. bit coin up 108,000 and the dollar facing pressure at the bloomberg dollar index, down .02% and the u.s. dollar up. thank for you walking through the key lines around these markets with the focus of course on the dollar, maybe some of those longs could be unwound in

the keeps and months ahead and talking about immigration day and post. more analysis on how to think of the markets. tariff uncertainty weighs on currencies and that uncertainty is there and the dollar slipping the first time in three days. sonja martin, how are you thinking whether or not you want to lean in to the dollar trade at this point and how much is priced in? sonia: simon, the market has priced in a lot of the presumably good news that will come with trump and we've seen a massive rally and it's been an unusually huge move. there is a potential for connection and it will have to depend on the import tariff factor. the big unknown for the market is when and to which degree

trump will come through with his promises to increase tariffs and we hope he'll make some deals and could be enough of a you're to dollar value -- euro-dollar rally. but if he comes in hard with tariffs right away, that will just confirm all of the fierce we've had and put pressure on the euro. it's kind of a make it or break it moment in a way with trump coming into office tonight and see what happens next. tom: what level would you target around euro-dollar if you get a more benign response from trump? sonja: you could see a significant reaction because the market has run a long way and as mentioned before. the premarket is extremely strained and 105 is not a problem if we get a signal tariffs will be held off for some time. but with trump the problem is

always that can change from one second to the next and the unpredictability of his policies will make markets very nervous. it's important to point out as well when we look at past episodes, especially the last trump presidency, the euro is quite strong in 2017 and that's not the case now. you get a dollar move one way or the other depending on what happens next. it's unlikely to see the euro rise on its own strength for a long period of time and is a very weak currency and should remain under pressure. tom: to what extent are those additional rate cuts priced into euro-dollar at this point? the markets are expecting almost a full point this year. is it factored in there as well for the euro-dollar? sonja: i think the market has been fairly consistent with its views with respect the them. there's been some expectation

but not a lot. people are anticipating this and i think what is priced in. if you look at the dollar and how sensitive the trades are with respect to rate expectations, it's very much the u.s. side of this equation they're in the driving seat. the correlation between the u.s. dollar and the u.s. expectation is much higher for the euro-dollar and i do thinking the fed is much more crucial for the currency pair and i think the e.c.b. will add to the generally negative sentiment. tom: the fed really the driving factor for euro-dollar versus the e.c.b. at this point. sonja, how much of a floor do you think has been put -- if at all, put under the pound given the pressure on sterling we've seen the postfew weeks. is that storm abated? sonja: yeah, i think it's calmed down a bit. we've had a massive movement in

the market that everyone is looking at the budget again and there's a real concern about fiscal responsibility, is it really going to work out. and there are plans for the budget we are listing in the combination it had over weak currency and the advisory yields and that's a warming signal as everyone felt remindedded of the mistrust of the budget which cause massive markets turmoil and we're a long way from this but the u.k. has issues in terms of its fiscal spending plans and in terms of the new tax plans impacting employment. so there are a lot of reasons to be concerned but think the recent decline has been overdone and this time we're starting to find some portion here and see how things progress from here and will of course depend on the fate of the euro in the coming weeks. tom: your expectations around the b.o.e., markets pricing 65

basis points and there's been a repricing as well in terms of expectations. does it sound reasonable to you or do you think markets are still underestimating how far the bank of england will have to go to support this economy? sonja: it's very weak and they've been in trouble even more so than other central banks and the situation has been sticky in the u.k. and the past hasn't been as clear as it has been for other central banks and there's been a lot of divisional expectations and what the market is pricing in right now is reasonably to be expected. and there is nothing hasty announced and we have to move from data point to data point and make sure they don't overdo it and it goes too far. i would be careful in their wording as well. tom: the b.o.j. with this decision on friday.

economists in the hole seem to be expecting another hike. there's some independence on what policy we get from trump in the days ahead and seems to be the expectation and will go along with another hike. where is that same dollar yen then? sonja: the problem year is not the percentage of save will be but it will be about the wording. because this has been the problem haunting the b.o.j. for some time and done the right thing and have sent signals to what they've done policywise but have an unfortunate tendency to shoot themselves in the foot by delivering a very unperforming policy. and you really have to watch the wording of the press conference and this is where they need to become a bit more courageous in order to have a bigger impact on the market. tom: watch for the press conference when it comes to the b.o.j. on friday.

sonja martin doing a global tour of currencies on the dollar, euro, and pound and looking ahead later this week, the japanese yen. thank you. wendy schiller of brown university. we'll get her views in terms of the policy, mechanics of incoming president-elect trump and his team, of course. how do you think of implementing that policy agenda in the days, weeks, and months ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: breaking news, president joe biden announcing pardons before leaving the white house. inauguration is coming with president trump today. pardons for anthony fauci who led the fight against covid, controversial in some quarters

and some parts of the u.s. joe biden has issued a pardon for anthony fauci and also issued a pardon to general mark a. mili as well. and here are lines from the press release that's accompanied these pardons from the white house. these appear to be preemptive pardons and quoting from the press release, in certain cases, from president joe biden, certain cases some have been threatened, talking about civil servants including mark hilly and the staff to investigate the january 6 attack on the united states capitol. i'm quoting from the press release so those members from the committee plus anthony fauci and mark milley have been pardoned as a result. we'll get more details on this, of course, throughout programming and what it constitutes in terms of the response from joe biden in of course his final hours in that role as president of the united

states on inauguration day. geopolitick is a major story. hamas releasing three israeli hostages yesterday in exchange for 90 palestinians held in israeli prisons. worry joined with the latest on a cease-fire. let's start about this cease-fire. what's the expectation? there's been incredible pictures from both sides in terms of the prisoners and hostages meeting their families after 15 months of captivity in conditions that we can only imagine. what are the expectations the cease-fire can hold longer term? roz: it's a fragile start and delayed start and last minute wrangling we saw and we announced an agreement a plan to have a cease-fire. you had to reverse engineer parts of the agreement after the fact. so there's a lot that was codified about this agreement.

so lots of room there for disagreement to say well, you're breaking this part of it or i'm breaking this part of it and so on. it's very, very fragile but we did see the first big macerrer which was the release of the initial group, just three israeli hostages, the release of the palestinian prisoners is the very first step. now we have a bit of a pause before we'll get perhaps the second release of israeli hostages in exchange for a larger group of palestinian prisoners. underlying that is a lot of conversation about what happens after the first six weeks of this agreement, then what, does it roll over and under what terms and when do we start the conversation about what gaza would look like after a cease-fire if this is truly a pathway to the end of the war. and we see even within israel, there's a lot of disagreement about that politically within the circle of whether this is

truly a pathway to proper peace. very fragile all around. tom: tempers the relief he's sensing speaking to people on the ground and it's a sentiment that's been shared in gaza and west bank as well. given that you are sitting around the desk around the pardons of dr. anthony fauci and mark milley. can you give us a context of the terms you see this? obviously we're in the final hours now of president biden's term and he seems and sees the need for what looked like preemptive pardons. roz: biden has been taking steps to deploy and protect his legacy and making it harder for donald trump to wind back the policies of the biden era. he's come under crimp for that and why wait so long to do these bold actions people were calling for in the years during your

term but it does seem to be to try and lay the -- not land mines but make it a lot harder for donald trump to rush his agenda out the door. on the pardons we see donald trump is expected to pardon a bunch of people related to the january 6 attack on the capitol hill potentially today. joe biden out the door, pardoning some people and seems like without any charges against these individuals today. is it a preemptive pardon? these are people donald trump repeatedly trained his sights on and fauci with his handling of covid and milley who used very strong language to describe donald trump and called him a facist which obviously trump denies but is this someone donald trump will go for, a royalist inside the sector that he moves away from and they

talked about his return, would he face something with his repercussion. that's in a way putting up a barrier for donald trump to come for these people. tom: alarmingly public servants have been subjected to threats for faithfully serving their duties and dr. anthony fauci and mark milley have faced these threats. and the context and reaction to the live breaking news. thanks very much. president biden and president-elect trump's teams are both involved in the cease-fire deal between hamas and gaza. trump reportedly -- make haas and israel, with trump making plans to keep the deal on track with his middle east envoy considering a visit to the gaza strip. we know he was instrumental in getting that deal along the lines with all the hard laws put

in place by his team. and joining us to talk about trump's inauguration is wendy schiller brown. thanks for joining us. we'll start with the cease-fire between hamas and israel. what can we take from the role trump's team played in this cease-fire? what lessons can we learn from how they may apply that kill set and that pressure gorge forward? wendy: well, what we can see is donald trump in his second term wants to be the guy that makes peace, the guy that comes in and solves the conflicts. you may say well, that's admirable. it is. nobody wants these kind of horrific conflicts. but for the president, it's about his legacy and popularity and about inserting influence around the globe in a way that's cingular, that donald trump, by coming into office, pushed this cease-fire forward. he wants to do the same thing

apparently with ukraine and russia. but it says the united states may not deploy troops or give you as many weapons or much money but the u.s. will still weigh in and donald trump will use the threat of the united states power to get warring parties to come to the together. this is the first example i think at the moment bodes well for those of us who want to see these conflicts end p. tom: this is a president pushing for peace but what is your expectation he'll get a resolution between ukraine and russia? a conflict he's described as being able to solve on day one. it sounds like it will take a lot longer than that. what kind of time frame or levers should he reach for to bring the conflict to an end? wendy: it determines when ukraine runs out of the most recent batch of aid. donald trump expressed keptism

of the aid congress has given ukraine and congress has to add new permissions for new aid and will probably be the time line and the next couple months will be a request for more aid and will be up to the president and republicans that control congress. that will be our time line. in that sense the unpredictability of donald trump p. he's unpredictable and foreign entities have to wonder how far he'll go to accomplish his goals. i say he doesn't want conflict but iran is still considered a threat to the united states. what will he do to bring iran to the table? that's the sort of two sided coin is he doesn't like war and thinks it's a losing proposition and wants peace but what will he do to get the peace and world leaders are not sure about that. tom: to the here and now, what will you be watching for in the hours and day ahead how this

second term person will shape and shift. wendy: all release in office. and what will be his first five, the immigration and border or the economy, will there be pardons? we've seen an expanded use of pardons by both democrat and probably republican presidents. what will they be and how quickly can they be implemented? the federal government has 2.7 million employees and is a vast institute and hard to move quickly. we'll see what his team wants to work on today. tom: what do you make of these pardons that have come out in the last few minutes from the outgoing conversation focusing on fauci and milley. they sound like preemptive pardons, what did you make of this? wendy: the common power and clemency part to commute the

sentences, the founders put that in for those unjustly convicted or had been given sentientses too long and is supposed to be used sparingly. we've seen lots of presidents use pardons in ways we find questionable. so we've seen biden pardon his own son, hunter. we've seen preemptive pardon which is is scary and these individuals were doing their civic duty and no question they did something criminal so preempt us is frightening especially the rule of law and how far does he go in pardoning the january 6, and does he pardon those that did the violence or just in the crowd? that will be a question mark, too. some of these people are coming to the end of the sentences and pardoning or commuting wouldn't be that big after deal but the united states prides itself on rule of law and the president has a power to circumvent that and should be used pairingly

from either party. tom: sitting here in the europe and the u.k., it's something of a fascinating, somewhat of a head scratcher in terms of pardons and how presidents are willing to use them. wendy schiller, excellent analysis of what to think ahead of the trump administration. still ahead, we'll get back to the world economic forum in davos, switzerland with the c.e.o. of axis bank. that's coming up. ♪is is bloo

the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own.

in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways.

tom: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i'm tom mackenzie. the world economic form is underway in davos, switzerland. global business and political leaders are discussing the state of the economy and trade with president-elect trump at the top of their agenda. jonathan ferro and lisa abramovich are on the ground. >> i can tell you it is not called. this is not even real, it's a green screen. we are all stuck between two worlds, washington, d.c. inauguration and happy valley. the reality over the next five days. you know how this is going to work.

trump is going to act, davos will react, and that will be the next three days. lisa: already a reaction, the people not here, at the inauguration, maybe coming here or not depending on the convenience. it is also the undercurrent of dealmaking which has always been a part of davos, now is the pretext. not necessarily message about virtues, ethics. jonathan: let's break it down and make it easy. if you are a company operating in america right now, things are great. the incoming administration has promised to make it even better. if you are outside the u.s. and exporting into the u.s., like can get very complicated for you. we are expecting some sort of announcement on tariffs at some point.

we don't know how others will react. then we have to start talking about financial markets as well. will the fx market offset that? as for the tax story, how much stimulus will we really see in the u.s. economy, how much additional debt are we going to get, and how much is that crowd out the hopes and dreams of not just americans but the rest of the world? europe is in a weak spot, a variety of countries compromised by their debt levels, losing fiscal constraints, we have seen it in the ukraine and france, and it could get a whole lot better in the next couple of months or whole lot worse. lisa: in financial markets, we talk about the readthrough of the tariffs, stimulus that may come through, and this question of inflation and how much room there is for the european region to stimulate at a time when there is this crowding out factor.

one group of people who are here, all the bankers. they are here with their full regalia. this is the dealmaking moment. how much are we seeing external companies looking to get into the united states to say that we are u.s., too. you can give us a good deal also. how much do you start to hear walking back of the rhetoric that we heard in 2017 today? jonathan: we will talk about that with mr. pinto, mr. moynihan. a lot of talk about on that front. you mentioned some of the virtue signaling. there has been a real vibe shift away from the virtue signaling and a we focus on core competency. we have seen a few american companies pulled back from dei initiatives. we've also seen some companies including the banks distance themselves from the net zero

efforts of the last years. i'll be interested to hear how many companies want to talk about their new initiatives that would usually take a box, how few of them will do it this time around. lisa: davos was the place where these announcements were made. that was the purpose of davos, to talk about climate change, talk about inequality in the world, talk about how you would make things more fair. this time, how much is that left at the door, and it comes down to how do you get an edge in a world that is increasingly competitive? that is maybe what people will be talking about this year in .25. jonathan: the biggest headline right now, not who is here, but who is not here, and where are they, and why? tom: thank you so much. setting up the guests coming through, and ultimately trump

looming large. we will see what it all means for the debt levels of these nations and how your response. let's cross over. another part of the landscape for us with the team of bloomberg stretched over a stretch of real estate. bring us your next guest. >> peeling away from president trump, we will talk about cyber security threats. happy to say that dorit dor, the chief technological officer of checkpoint joints me now. the world economic report cites cyber security threats as the fifth biggest risk over the next couple years. how do you see the landscape are emerging in 2025? dorit: thank you for inviting me.

the landscape is always becoming more severe. and our data analysis we found a groove 44 percent year-over-year in 2024 and it actually continuing to emerge. the digital transformation uses much more assets online and hands the importance of securing them are greater and attacking much more profitable as well. >> i saw a report that cyberattacks on your state have risen. ai disinformation campaigns targeted one third of global elections that is a startling number. talk about what those campaigns actually look like and how damaging they were, how influential you think they were? dorit: the main point is what ai enables us to do, it enables us to do attacks and messes that are much more accurate and targeted.

before, some persona sort of attack sometimes, now the attackers can use it much more consistently to attack more people in masses, creating attacks continuously. that is a big threat specifically for this information and the fake, it becomes so accurate, you trusted as being the real picture. very easy to do social engineering. joumanna: if the cyberattacks are becoming more sophisticated, leaning more on artificial intelligence, are you therefore also leaning more on artificial intelligence? dorit: yes, it is a tool improving all the time, and we must also use a i-4 security. we must also be more preventative. we cannot assume we will manually respond to all of these attacks. we have to stop these attacks instantaneously.

finally, we have to build into this culture of misinformation and disinformation, be more resilient. four things that are curious, not just the picture of somebody. joumanna: seems like the battle of ai, which so i will have the future to deal with these cyber threats. dorit: both sides will accelerate, i don't think it is one side winning. joumanna: one thing i want to ask not necessarily cyber security related but the u.s. supreme court recently upheld the decision to ban tiktok in the united states. how do you think about it from a security standpoint? dorit: tiktok is a tool that can be used for two things, delivering misinformation and disinformation like we discussed, and the second thing is collecting data from many people which could be very

damaging in the hands of an adversary. it is a tool that, with the wrong intentions, could be used very badly and could be the basis for forming a severe cyberattack. so it is not unrelated to cyber even though it start from a culture, social networks, people, but it could easily turn into a cyber tool. joumanna: and it depends on who the ultimate owner is. in this case, it is china. dorit: it depends on the intention and the usage of this data. if not used in a bad way, it could be a legitimate thing. but if the data is badly used, or misinformation and disinformation is not handled well, it could be a very destructive tool. joumanna: one other phenomenon that happened last year is the increasing amount of

cyberattacks on supply chain's. one of the big turning points of the conflict in the middle east last year was the hezbollah pager attack, israel thought to be behind that. i wonder if you think these kinds of supply chain attacks will become more common in the future? dorit: i think it starts with a geopolitical divide. we arede-globalizing in some sense. each side is trying to use their best tool and that is accelerating the war. it does also accelerate supply chain attacks, even not specifically like the example you mentioned, there are many already in play and being used. everything being used by states ended up being used by industry, thieves just looking to get an economical gain. so tools are transforming from being a state tool to everybody

using it. supply chain is a problem. supply chain in the physical world is one thing. supply chain in the software world is another thing and there are many examples of severe attacks. joumanna: a question on checkpoint, i see you're opening your second-largest office in india. what opportunities do you see there? dorit: india has a large population, many isv's that serves many other countries and companies. we do already have some operations there, different centers of excellence where we can build expertise on. i would say it connects to the missing talent we have. we are looking all over the world to facilitate our growth, and bring it in a place where it is technologically savvy. joumanna: before i let you go, i want to ask about the

development in the region. finally, the cease-fire between israel and hamas has been implemented. you are an israeli, tel aviv-based company. what are your thoughts on the cease-fire, what it could mean for the middle east? dorit: checkpoint is a global company, i live in israel, i am an israeli citizen. i'm excited about the development, looking forward to seeing all the hostages come home. i look forward to being a more rational region, not so much in the news. many of us want to live our lives and prosper. joumanna: i think many of us agree with your sentiments. quite the comprehensive interview with the checkpoint chief technology officer dorit dor. back to you. tom: joumanna bercetche on the ground of the world economic forum in davos. thank you.

coming up, an interview with another executive. stay with us for that conversation. axis bank's ceo in conversation with our team at the world economic forum. this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i'm tom mackenzie. let's go back to davos. a special guest. >> india always makes a strong pitch here in davos but this is a difficult year for india with slowing growth, tight liquidity and muted corporate investment. to talk about all of that and the impact on india's banking system, i have the ceo of axis

bank, amitabh chaudhry. but their largest bank in the country. 6.5% growth. it just doesn't seem like it is good enough. amitabh: it is lower than what people were predicting earlier. our economists think we can hit close to seven what has happened in the first half of the year, that was a bit of a surprise. not expecting it to be what it turned out to be. a combination of other things that you mentioned, plus, the fiscal and monetary tightening has had an impact on the growth side. liquidity going away, inflation has not also helped. but i think you'll see capex coming back gradually in the second half. it should play well for the next financial year. but the macro right now as it stands looks tough. why then we can push our way through and take the gdp growth

to higher lands or get stuck in a zone is something to look out for. we also need to see what happens in the first days of the trump administration. a lot to watch out for. menaka: investors in india will want to know, is the biggest challenge an internal one to get the policy's right, boost growth, or will it be all of the external winds that blow in from the u.s. or all over the world including china? amitabh: we cannot stay away from the external world. we see some impact of what the trump administration might do, touching india to some extent. if the u.s. and china trade war plays out the way the people are predicting, india could be benefiting. slowly, gradually, we could see some investments coming in. but a lot of things need to be solved internally in india. we need to think about how do we think about the ruby itself,

what do we do about the liquidity, getting growth back. we have been spending a lot of money but we have to slow down in the first half, get that capex. and then primarily, capex needs to come back. we have seen a slowdown. one of the two drivers of private could be real estate and then the manufacturing which focuses on exports. the government has to ask itself, what can we do to remove that we -- the barriers, what do we do into terms of development? you can put it all the real estate that you want. menaka: if i could stop you there, where you stand in terms of what needs to give? fiscal policy, monetary policy, and a turn on the interest rates, given the fed at this

point in time doesn't seem inclined to cut further? amitabh: on the physical side, the government is committed to bringing down the deficits. menaka: so where is the growth going to come from? amitabh: first, according to the rules and the policy of what the government needs to do, states need to realize that if they don't get that stuff right, just giving free money away to certain portions of the population and your budget suffering will not get you across the line. menaka: you are betting on a monetary policy cut? amitabh: it may not make a difference. menaka: you sound dismal about the growth outlook. growth in india will be somewhat a boring story this year? amitabh: our economists believe the growth can be better. if you want to look at the next two or three years, you need liquidity back. you need to infuse liquidity into the system. menaka: who is going to do that?

it has to be the central bank. amitabh: they know what they are doing. menaka: there is also the dollar to take care of. we have seen the sharp depreciation of the rupee and a couple of days but there is predicted all the strength over the course of the year. is that a concern for you? amitabh: it is a concern for some portions of the economy but india has always seen certain periods of a stable rupee and then not. it is playing into the minds of all currencies including the rupee. menaka: what is your expectation? amitabh: they will play it slow. they will not want to spend huge amounts of reserve. menaka: rates stay where they are and no big defense of the rupee at this time? amitabh: i don't know what the government can do.

the governors know better than me. menaka: what does all of this mean for the banking system in india? it has been a tough period already. we have seen as a quality slippage in the retail portfolio, corporate investment very muted. how do banks like yours continue to make money? amitabh: yes, the growth has slowed down in line with the positive growth. we expect numbers will remain the same. we have always talked about the fact that we can grow faster than the industry. not to look at a quarter by quarter but over a certain period of time. yes, there are issues but please know that. menaka: do you see issues in the asset qualities, the small portfolios, micro-finance portfolios spreading into the midmarket portfolios? does this remain a slow year of growth? amitabh: we are not seeing the

mid corporate in some of those areas. if you keep a tight lid on the unsecured side, some of it can slip into the secured side because you don't have the money. the impact of that i believe will be minimal. banks are saying that we have reached a peak of stabilizing so we should hopefully trickle down in the right direction from here. but yes, you have to be watchful. menaka: it will be a middling year for indian banks and the indian economy. back to you, tom. tom: menaka doshi with what i think will be the most animated interview we have had thus far. about four hours away from the inauguration of president-elect donald trump for his second term in office. kailey leinz joins us now from washington. always with a finger on the pulse of the politics of the u.s.. what are you watching for? kailey: it will be quite the

day. a little different from traditional inaugurations and that it is currently -10 degrees celsius in washington, which means the actual swearing in will take place inside the capitol rather than on the west front. donald trump will today become the 47th president of the united states. it is not just the pomp and circumstance that we will be watching today but really what happens after he takes the oath. according to fox news, he had been planning some 200 executive orders that he will sign today. last night at a rally, trump had this to say. we are going to sign them at the beginning. we know those executive orders could focus on a few areas in particular, energy, the border, and the federal workforce. he also pledged today that he will be signing an extension of tiktok to divest itself after it

was briefly off light here in the u.s. over the weekend. there will be a whole host of executive actions he takes almost immediately, and then watching for things like tariff s, and crypto. tom: executive orders will be there. to what extent do you believe that will be setting the terms of the agenda of this president? one of our guests pointed out, essentially taking office as a lame duck president. kailey: exactly right, which might be why they are trying to frontload all of this policy action. especially after the midterms, all the attention will be on the next contest for president. he is trying to get out of the gate with a whole host of action that could define ultimately what his presidency will look like. for some of the things you want to do like tax policy, he will need congressional support. it will have to be written by the american legislature to become law, but other things

relating to emergency powers to and out to address the border, trade relationships, he will try to take as much unilateral action as he can and get some early wins. the first 100 days is typically the benchmark that people want to look at but he seems to want to get a lot done on day one. the other thing he mentioned that he wants to do is issue pardons to those serving crimes from january 6. we will be watching for action on that today as well. tom: kailey leinz on an historic day for people in the u.s. with the inauguration of incoming president trump. don't miss our special coverage at 11:00 a.m. eastern time. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> it is 1:00 in london and 8:00 in new york. u.s. markets are closed for the martin luther king holiday. i am critter group.

futures are still very much still open. you are seeing some marginal pressure when you look at the s&p 500 futures, down .2%. you are seeing the same margin by the nasdaq 100. slightly risk off sentiment but not enough to write home about. quick check on dollar-yen. 1.56 handle. perhaps postelection this is a currency you want to keep an eye on. we have to talk about bitcoin. 106,000 handle, record high for the cryptocurrency. also a quick check on european currencies. the stoxx 600 is also down by the same margin of u.s. futures, down by .1%. ftse 100 are performing a 5.1%. euro-dollar at a 1.03 handle. no reprieve for the pound either.

1.12197. the last few hours have been crucial to what president trump will bring, an historic day in the united states as the inauguration ceremony is just a few hours away, marking the beginning of the second trump administration. let's get more out of kailey leinz in washington. what is the feeling like on the ground? kailey: it is very cold in washington today, for one, which is why part of this transition of power will look different today. donald trump taking the oath of office not outside with a crowd of supporters gathered on the national mall but inside inside the rotunda where it will be a lot tighter and not as many people in attendance because of the weather. the most important part, he will become the 47th president of the united states. after being sworn in, he is expected to give remarks where he intends to talk about a new era in america, and that could

start almost immediately after the swearing in and address he will give. he will immediately sign a series of executive orders. fox news reported the number of executive orders he could issue today could be around 200 related to a few issues. the border and immigration, energy, the federal workforce, and that after tiktok went off-line briefly, he is expected to extend the deadline. he is really going to hit the ground running today as he tries to use the office of the executive instead of other matters like taxes where he has to have the corruption -- cooperation of congress to score some early wins. kriti: can we talk about the last 24 hours of the 46th president here? we already know there have been

some preemptive pardons coming from joe biden. also 24 hours into a cease fire in israel and gaza. what do we need to know about the last 24 hours of joe biden? kailey: the cease fire is one of the things that he said he wanted to achieve before leaving office. he does get to leave office seeing that implemented, the first three israeli hostages reunited with their families. that was seen as a joint effort, not just from the outgoing biden administration but the incoming trump administration, it took all sites to get the deal done. but there is still a lot of animosity between certain parts of the democratic party and incoming trump camp, which is why you have seen the issue with today of these preemptive bargains extended to general mark milley, dr. anthony fauci, who oversaw the response to the pandemic, and that the members of congress and staff who investigated the attack on the

capital in 2021, as well as the d.c. and metropolitan capital officers who testified in front of the committee. he made clear, it doesn't mean that these pardons mean these people did anything wrong but just bracing for what could be coming with this incoming administration. kriti: i think we are all embracing a little bit. be sure to stay with bloomberg for complete coverage of the inauguration beginning at 11:00 eastern, 4:00 here in london. kailey talked about one of those key pieces, one of the first things on the agenda, tiktok. you as services were restored after donald trump said that he would delay the enforcement, although it is not clear if they can secure a backer to prevent a permanent shutdown. joining us now is peter elstrom. we lost tiktok for about 24 hours, we are getting it back maybe not legally, but what is

next for tiktok? >> the big question is whether or not this is temporary. when congress banned tiktok last year, they did so with bipartisan support. president biden put it into law. there were certain conditions for extending -- in particular they needed to have a qualified divestiture in motion. they needed to be a viable path forward, some sort of significant process in the deal. at this point it is not clear that they have any of those things. we go the beijing government has talked about those things but bytedance has shown a lot of reluctance to sell the company. kriti: talk about who these potential suitors could be. there was a morgan stanley analysis talking about the likes of amazon, walmart among others. is anyone a front runner?

peter: i don't think there are any people who are far enough along in the negotiations to pick out who a front runner is at this point. microsoft has been interested in the past, oracle has been interested in the past. one thing reported on earlier, the beijing government, who has a say, has thought about putting this into favorable hands, in particular elon musk, who has a lot of business in china, close to president trump. they could see that as a bargaining chip. if they can combine it with the operations of x, that could be a friendly deal that would benefit both sides. again, very early, no active negotiation going on and nowhere close to a deal. kriti: we will see what kind of precedent this sets for donald trump and how he approaches some of the other international companies in the united states. he will be back as we get more

updates. in addition to delaying the tiktok band, president-elect trump has indicated a number of executive orders he wants to issue on the first day, including opening up federal lands to drilling, energy exploration, and even closing the u.s. southern border. let's bring an expert, james lucier from capital alpha partners joins us now. great to have you on this historic day. walk us through your view of what the first 24 hours of the 47th president may look like? james: a real pleasure to be here with you this morning. you can see the snow behind me. this is an inauguration like no other. it is just one day but the preparation has been going on for four years, that is why it should not be surprising that you might have as many as 200 executive orders. many of these things are not

really time bombs, rather lighting a fuse to begin a longer process. there has been a lot of focus on immigration, energy, january 6, but the single biggest thing for me today is the reforming of the civil service and also a comprehensive deregulatory agenda that will not be one agency at a time but rather comprehensively applied, single template applied to all agencies. kriti: talk a little bit about that. we know on the campaign trail he has been quite vocal about making the government more efficient, even going out to put elon musk and vivek ramaswamy basically as consultants on that agenda. how different from executing these plans might his second presidency be from his first? james: a lot of times, the first trump administration coming in,

in fact, absolutely, after. as it was, had a great working relationship with the civil service model. they are creating a class of positions where civil service employees have all the rights and protections, they can stay in the civil service, but they will be moved out of those key positions if the trump people see them as not assisting with the president's agenda. that is a pretty big change. before we get too far away from tiktok, i think that's important, not because it is off message, but because he wants to go to china as one of his first trips. he has said he is open and willing to doing a deal. this will not be a day of american carnage like the first inauguration but rather a day with big new things going on. an olive branch of sorts offered to china as opposed to threats.

kriti: you talk about that tiktok ban. is this an isolated story or does the set a precedent from what we will see with international companies operating with one would hold in the u.s.? james: i think they are a special case given the tense relationship of the u.s. and china. while i don't expect trump to announce blockbuster terrace today he probably will be making an announcement of a process to apply tariffs systematically, mostly directed toward china. this is a way of applying i think some honey along with that vinegar, a carrot as well as a stick. i don't see that applying to other countries given that most other countries, companies in the u.s., it's mostly about a relationship in the united states. kriti: i want to talk about one

of the first things that he will do in his next 24 hours as president. in addition to addressing the tiktok ban, addressing energy production. we know that you and your firm specialize in this. we are talking about invoking a national declaration, unleashing a lot of power. in practice, what does that actually mean? james: the president does have emergency powers under the international emergency powers act. that can be a basis for tariffs. i think it also means an expedited move on approving infrastructure, moving forward on pipelines, things like that. the fact is, we don't really know what the intentions are. it is remarkable how closely held these executive orders have energy emergency is a way of

underscoring how quickly and effectively trump hopes to move on a host of energy production areas, bringing production back online in alaska, in the offshore. perhaps reversing some of president biden's efforts to put production on the offshore on limits. then the emergency declaration would help with his legal predicate for doing those things. kriti: something to keep a very close eye on. deregulation perhaps not just in energy but other doctors. james lucier, great to have you on this historic day. a major impact on the markets. he was talking about unleashing that production. we have not seen it reflected in oil prices just yet. of course, the stock market is closed in the united states, but you are seeing assets open.

future down .1%. slightly risk of sentiment when you look at the cross asset story. currencies across the board are seeing a little bit of a boost. dollar-yen, 156 handle. we are going to keep you apprised of all the markets around the world. coming up, we stick with that political theme. pangaea policy's terry haynes joining us for his forecast of trump's first 100 days in office. this is bloomberg. ♪

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let our expertise round out yours. kriti: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i'm kriti gupta. as we await donald trump's inauguration, i want to bring you live pictures of donald trump and his family waiting to exit the blair house and washington, d.c.

first thing on their docket, they are going to a morning service at st. john's church. for now, awaiting that departure from what is bound to be a packed schedule of four 47th president of the united states on this inauguration day. let's dive into what that looks like not just for the first 100 days but the next four years. terry haines of pangaea policy joins the program. what does the first 24 hours look like, let alone the next four years? terry: let's start with the first 24 hours. i think you see two things. one, four markets, you see a release of animal spirits that have been pent up over the last two months. the last few hours in a lot of ways are the height of trump's power. markets have been engaged in speculation, almost to the upside generally, about what trump might do, the things that

it might unleash, the profits that might be made. the second thing that he does starting with the inaugural address, tries to pursue a goldilocks strategy. you want to show resolve, focus, but don't go too far. there is a lot of rhetoric about shock and awe, but a lot of what the first day ends up being is a repudiation of what the last president did. kriti: certainly a lot of executive orders already in the pipeline for what most first 24 hours may look like. there is a narrative that he really pushed forward on the campaign trail which is as simple as tax cuts for americans funded by terrorists abroad. how much will we see that in the first 100 days? terry: you'll see a fair amount of that. tax cuts will take all year, frankly.

it will take a long time for congress, both to figure out a budget, more importantly, put however much deficit increase or not that it wants to pursue. that will be an ongoing conversation and not an easy one. that will take a while. i do think that you'll see some tariffing today but i don't think you'll see the huge rhetoric matched by action. markets will conclude that the nice influence of treasury secretary designate scott bessent will have a hand there. that may be true, but tariffs have been a part of geopolitics and national security policy for quite a while, and they will stay that way. this will be a big and frankly overt shift into national

security overlay on economic policy. kriti: speaking of economic policy, a lot of financial markets have interpreted the second trump administration as one of deregulation. already seeing that in the energy sector this morning talking about invoking national security powers. is that a broad-based assessment, deregulation is how he will approach every sector, are there any places where he tightens the rains? terry: generally speaking, deregulation will be the battle cry of the moment. markets get very excited about deregulation but two things. one, it doesn't mean un regulation. more of a rightsizing than anything else. markets get excited because trump will start deregulating everything. the supreme court started this a few years ago with a series of decisions that basically now make it impossible for

regulators to get over their skis and start inventing jurisdiction where they don't have any. what you'll see in the trump administration, you will see regulators finish that rightsizing, but trump will get some credit for things that the supreme court, in fairness, most of whom he appointed, started a few years ago. you get credit for things like that, as well. kriti: i wanted to ask about the border, a major touch point for american citizens, as well. we already know there are pieces of the wall from his first administration that are still constructed, have constructed thoughtfully brought to term. there's also the question of deportations. when it comes to tackling the immigration issue in the southern border, what is on donald trump's to do list? terry: i think donald trump closely tracks with the american people in polls have been

telling him broadly. i think he doesn't miss that most americans support strong border action, actions targeted at criminals but don't support indiscriminate action. that has been a lot of the rhetoric that you see coming out of the administration, attempts to correct people and frankly inoculate them against this mass deportation narrative. that is probably one reason why action scheduled in chicago this weekend have already been pulled back. it is very important for trump, not only as the new president but as a de facto lame-duck the moment he comes into office, to really work hard to bring the public along with him. if he brings the public along with him, explain actions, continue to get public support, it will frankly go better for him, whether with border security or anything else. that will help him gather support in congress which are

doesn't have to pay much attention to him since he will be gone in four years. kriti: let's talk about national security of a different kind. you talk about the southern border. curious about the national security measures when it comes to folks sitting where i am in london, europe, specifically when it comes to nato. a lot of saber rattling on the campaign trail. how much of that comes to a fruition when we have maybe a cease-fire in the middle east but not one in ukraine? terry: i think what trump thinks, his rhetoric about nato, whether it be eight years ago or today, has a salutary effect of frankly strengthening the alliance. the reason i say that, firstly, trump will greatly increase defense spending, spending for the defense industrial base in the united states. that is important because that

will effectively help create a national security overlay on u.s. economic policy. sitting in london or a european capital, as you know, a lot of the european and u.k. governments have already made commitments to increase defense spending. that is exactly what trump has wanted. i think he may have rubbed people the wrong way but point of fact he is getting largely what he wants. that probably accelerates if there are more right government selected in germany and france. kriti: a lot of whom are showing up at the inauguration. i want to end the interview where we started, talking about the taxes story. how did the damage from the l.a. wildfires fit into the budget that donald trump is about to inherit? terry: that is a very good

question, very smart question. one thing that i've been seeing for a while now, it is full steam ahead on the tax bill, i think a tax bill gets done largely because congress wanted to be done, trump does, too, but there are a lot of undercurrents pulling in the different direction. not only concerns about fiscal debt and deficits from the market which scott bessent basically ratified by saying the u.s. has a spending problem, you have the greatly increased defense spending as i mentioned, confirmation that trump and the republicans will not address the mandatory spending issue which is 70% of the budget. so that creates tensions. musk has already put his doge estimates down from $2 trillion in savings to $1 trillion, which tells you something about his process.

on top of that, you have the l.a. wildfires, which might be a quarter of a trillion dollars. that is another pullback on the ability to right size. kriti: certainly something we will be creeping -- keeping our eyes on. terry haines, thanks for joining us on this historic day. coming up, we will discuss the middle east. the gaza cease-fire begins with hamas releasing three israeli hostages in exchange for 90 hostages. we are going to tel aviv next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back to bloomberg markets paradigm kriti gupta in london you're waiting donald trump's departure for his inauguration first up on the docket will be the morning service at st. john's church. looking at live images of where he will depart to get to that morning surface. as we get a snippet of him we will certainly bring that to you right here on bloomberg tv. in the meantime we should go to another major story unfolding as a 47 president is about to be inaugurated, the cease fire in gaza is underway preyed aiming to gradually release israeli hostages and run 1000 palestinians in prison in israel over six weeks. ethan is in tel aviv. a pleasure to have you. just give us a play of the land of one what it feels like to be

in tel aviv and what the next steps look like. ethan: sure. tel aviv is quite normal these days. it has been for many months. that is not particularly noteworthy. what's going on is gaza and the west bank. we do have three israelis, at least three women released in that sense a moment of exceptional joy and celebration yesterday mixed of course with sorrow and anger that it had taken these 15 months to release these three women. they were released in exchange for them 90 palestinian detainees and prisoners were sent home mostly to the west bank. so that has happened at the same time it is threatening by mr. netanyahu's government, the far-right minister has pulled his party out of the coalition, a leading a very slim majority for the prime minister. a second one says he will do so if after six weeks don't go back to gaza.

inside gaza there's a struggle between hamas and the palestinian authority about who will be in charge of the place -- putting the place back together. in theory, israeli soldiers will start moving to the periphery of gaza and very importantly hundreds and hundreds of trucks of aid are showing to come into gaza and people are beginning to clear away streets and think about going home to really what is left a rather depressing moonscape of rubble. >> ethan, walk us through as we await the inauguration of donald trump, how he kind of picks up the next steps of diplomacy from his predecessor. ethan: yes. donald trump of course was quite central to this deal coming through and everyone is waiting with baited breath here to see what he is going to say about whether israel needs to continue after six weeks into the second

phase which would be a permanent cease-fire or truce in gaza or whether he will allow the more militant view which would be to continue the war afterwards. the assumptions he would like piece to go on but in theory he also as opposed to hamas ruling in gaza. hamas yesterday made a big show of reappearing on the streets with masks and guns and so, there is a lot of uncertainty ahead, but there's no question trumps role will be central and we will see what happens next. >> just put this into some context for us. on the conversations i've had with geopolitical strategist who talked about the cease fire that has been achieved is this is ultimately the deal that was formed 13 months ago. are there any specific changes or changes down the pike we should pay attention to? ethan: it is very much the deal

that was offered publicly by president biden late last may, but of course there were very big changes between late may and now, in particular the disruption of hezbollah, the killing of the leaders of hamas, the collapse of the syrian regime and israel's bombing of many air defense systems in iran leaving hamas isolated and therefore it seems to have felt forced to accept the deal that did not insist on an end to war in the first phase. that was the big rob and that's what they ended up agreeing to. now we will see what happens in the second phase paid it's very difficult to know. in theory, israel believes that unless it utterly destroys hamas it cannot survive in the region. but many israeli say but look at how we have done so well in other parts of the region in the last -- less important strategic

goal that it used to be. kriti: i'm curious about the areas around israel and the gaza strip, specifically when it comes to the likes of egypt and jordan among others which you hinted there. i know the crossing was one sticking point in some of these negotiations. where does this leave some of the counterparts to israel and to gaza and the likes of egypt and jordan, where do they stand on these next steps? ethan: well, each is somewhere distinct. jordan many feel is being threatened by a sort of islamist extremist in the same way that lebanon had been and possibly syria, but they are trying to join -- their goal would be to join in a u.s. led coalition involving the, roddy's and the saudi's to rebuild gaza and slow down the palestinian problem. egypt is very eager not to see

hamas reinstate itself in gaza but it also does not want to yield to everything israel wants. lebanon of course, hezbollah was the ruling -- the unofficial ruling power of lebanon when israel stripped lebanon of its lead and killed many of its leaders and also took out large numbers of its long-range missiles. it is now in the process of trying to reconstitute with international help to try and get a lebanese army and international forces into southern lebanon so that israel can feel safer. so all of these factors are playing a role. this gaza war spread its tentacles very far across the last 15 months. >> ethan is a final question let me bring in one more player. we know qatar has been a key kind of factor, a key party in these negotiations, a lot of the cease-fire negotiations specifically happening out of

delhi. walk us through their role and their role as a diplomat but also the extent of their neutrality when it comes to negotiating the next phases of this deal. ethan: yes. in israel there is great anger at qatar that the israelis feel the contraries were to pro hamas , they allowed a lot of hamas leaders to live and to prosper in qatar. they gave a lot of money to hamas in gaza, admittedly with israel permission, but israelis believe they were aware the money was going to building fortifications and tunnels and missiles rather than making it a better for civilian life. but right now qatar is feeling the pressure from incoming president trump who saying you make sure hamas does what it's promised to do in this deal and i think that qatar is trying to re-think a bit, it's a very

complicated neutral. maintains relations with the u.s. base there. the trump air will be a new test away will be for everyone in the region. >> certainly something we will keep a close eye on. thank you so much for giving us the latest out of the middle east. as we are speaking to ethan we are getting live images of what looks like the trump motorcade arriving to st. john's church over in washington. of course we will give you live updates in the first thing on the docket ahead of this inauguration is the morning service at st. john's church. it looks and he just departed from blair house. we of course will bring you those live images as we get them ahead of a truly historic moment in the united states, the 47th president of course looking like potentially exiting the car at this moment. he is a jampacked day ahead of him and a very long rally that we saw as well. remember he is a lot going on already talked about 50 and more

executive orders. some of that including a national state of emergency when it comes to energy production and includes the likes of what happens next with the tiktok band bread we were just talking to ethan bronner about the extent of what the israel and gaza cease fire actually looks like we are about 24 almost when he for hours in from what's going to be a crucial game changer in terms of the next phase of a war that has raged on since october of 2023. we will keep an eye on that. what he has to say around the tariffs story. as we know, every country around the world has their ion washington right now. of course the very things he will bring up in terms of what he wants to do and plans he wants to execute in his first 100 days in office of course in the four years to come. so there's going to be a lot of market fallout in what we hear from him as well. let's get more perspective on that market fallout. stocks got a big bump from trump selection.

every sigel move higher expected on those hopes of deregulation, let's bring in janet, who of course joins us to talk about that ripple effect. walk us through what the actual looks like and for the audience we are seeing live images of jd vance right now exiting the car there at st. john's church we are still awaiting more images of donald trump. bringing you right back in one of the big questions around this trump trade has been is this simply a reason to buy american assets because it is simply a deregulatory phase from this administration. is that how you're thinking about it? >> thanks for having me. that is certainly up possible elements. but of course there other aspects. it's really about strong growth in u.s. relative to the other reg and i think you don't really see that in other economies. and of course the soft landing

narrative as long as the u.s. economy continues to grow, nominal gdp growth in the u.s. will likely be around 5% and that should continue will lead to strong growth. it is a combination of factors but i think earnings growth stories u.s. exceptionalism particularly in attack -- intech and ai is super important. and i think this enthusiasm will carry on for the rest of 2025. >> so what is the hedge for that. >> the base case is ongoing enthusiasm and we still see stocks grinding higher in the u.s.. that's not going to be a smooth sale. but there are assessment elements evolving around tariffs , immigration which is related to inflation and markets are still very sensitive on inflation. so i guess the hedge is probably gold i think commodities sector would be beneficial if there is

inflationary risk and i also think there's a lot of discussion, bonds will still act as a macro hedge if things don't go the right way. >> so walk us through that story because that thesis comes at a contrast to the idea that a trump presidency brings about inflation therefore potentially a bond selloff. so why would bonds still hold that hedging ability. janet: in terms of u.s. bonds we are cautious because we do see the u.s. bond yields can stay heavier for longer because the u.s. economy is strong and of course the tariff risk and etc.. the term premium could go higher. i guess our preference in terms of bond is more in the u.k., so the u.k. economic environment is weakening and is likely to slow so i guess it's more of an economic hatch for the u.k.. i think bond yields currently i

think is attractive and a bitter part of the curve. i think if things go wrong, if these tariffs and some of these measures trigger some slowdown in growth i think investors will still go to bonds for justification purposes but of course as i mentioned gold is also attractive from a point of view in terms of diversification. >> hold that thought right there. i want to bring you live images as we are seeing them it looks like donald trump is arriving to the -- his motorcade is arriving to st. john's church. we are seeing that in washington paid the first thing on his docket before he gets inaugurated. we've already seen jd vance arrive earlier with his family to the church this morning service will be the first thing that comes out on his docket. now you are seeing those live images from donald trump himself. i believe his families do to attend that morning service as well but you are seeing that going to be the key piece of the

kick of his agenda if you can -- we are still waiting, melania trump making an appearance as well. his son baron currently not in the shot but we will keep you apprised as we get them. this morning surface -- service and st. john's church, some of the other proceedings. the inauguration is due to happen 12:00 p.m.. he is expected to begin that shift about an hour prior at about 4:00 p.m. u.k. time. he is now of course attending with melania trump his wife into st. john's church for that morning service again ahead of a jampacked day. janet, the very last word as we await those live shots. simply because you talk about this move of gold, bonds as this hedge. his volatility or the enemy.

janet: it can present opportunity. volatility is more likely to be in the longer end because that's what investors are concerned about. fiscal risk and long-term uncertainty on the term premium. we should stay nimble in this environment. the central scenarios positive general risk but we could see the volatility that goes against that but i think that could present opportunity for long-term investors. i would say it's an opportunity if there is volatility. kriti: perhaps a trading just -- trading desks dream. i'm sure you'll have your hands full in the next couple of years with this new administration. we do also have an event at the same time out of davos, the world economic forum. the ceo will join bloomberg television coming out of davos. live coverage throughout the entire week ahead.

really getting immediate reaction from the things donald trump has separate that live shot coming out of the beautiful mountains of switzerland and one -- what this actually looks like. your p leaders and corporate leaders as well who are going to be reacting to the 47th president of the united states, his foreign policy agenda, more from davos next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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kriti: welcome back to bloomberg markets. global leaders gathering in davos for the world economic forum spring haslinda amin joins us live from switzerland. haslinda: trade is the focus in davos as we await clarity of trumps tariffs and trade policies. let's get perspective from the wealth fund ceo at india's largest home tech manufacturers

with presence in the u.s. as well. what is the outlook for consumption of your products in the u.s.? >> the united states consumes the world's largest home textiles across and for us at well spun, the important aspect is the portfolio we have, a bed linen -- bed linen and rugs and flooring and utility, the opportunity is immense. and there is an opportunity to displace and have de-risking assert -- of certain geographies for india as the opportunity economy. haslinda: are you planning more manufacturing plants? what's your expected plan? dipali: first of all we have warehouses across the west coast in the midwest and also the east. not only catering a supply chain

inventories, we have that for retail partners along with that we set up a pillow plant in ohio which actually does all kinds of pillows and setting up another one in nevada in the next six months and that again is going to the very interesting one. kriti: -- haslinda: why does it make sense to produce in the u.s. when you can probably do cheaper in india. dipali: the product and supply chain is placed better when it's on shore as well. the united states being one of the biggest country of growth, i think it is important to be invested in as well. haslinda: we are awaiting clarity on the policies trumped may impose on china for instance. can india and you capitalize on what's about to be impacting india's own and china's own supply chains. >> india is the largest grower

of cotton and the largest exporter of cotton as well. all the manufacturing there is under one roof. it's vertically integrated as is well spun. when you make sheets at that size and that volume, there is a great opportunity for india where we continue to grow and i think that's also playing along role supporting the infrastructure in terms of privatization, skilling up the blue-collar because you know india has the youngest population in the world and in a blue-collar it's going to be very important part of that growth story as well. and textiles actually employs the maximum amount of population in india. that's going to be very important so upscaling more incentives there a lot of privatization reports, integrating the medium and small enterprises for the entire supply chain so it is giving us a -- so definitely india has

that opportunity and for us i think we could be the largest you know natural fiber destination and being the most stable democracy look at our country in terms of the young as population, most stable democracy and i think the gdp rate we are talking about is going to be around 6.5. but i think we have room to grow. >> where does innovation come into that? what role does it play to achieve the targets you set for yourself? dipali: well spun at the dow jones sustainable index is in the top two percentile globally in the textiles for sustainability. circularity will play a very big role in we want to take that lead. the landfill speed what are we doing about it. i think every product will have a carbon footprint as we go forward and we will measure that. and i think for us now we can

use 50% of our product that goes into this saving that going back into a product we also are up cycling a product. 70% is actually sustainable packaging. then you're looking at farmers as well. we work with around 80% sustainable cotton as well. so there's a whole lot of things. we are not even using a drop of freshwater in our capacity. 30 milliliters of water is recycled and we give -- for the sewage water we use print and we don't use any freshwater in our facility. haslinda: your upbeat about india's economy but this is an economy that slowed down from 8%. consumption has been a problem, what kind of recovery are you anticipating. >> there were a lot of collections that came in there

was an up here people. an anxiety in the entire ecosystem. but we see and we have started seeing in the economy it started kicking in and it took another quarter or two for the urban economy to weaken as well but we are very confident. i think it started to pick up and the amount of manufacturing that's coming in in india again giving the money into the hands of the people to go back and shop. >> when you look at the currency hovering at record lows, is that a plus for your business? haslinda: -- dipali: right now we will see how long that is sustained but that will be an opportunity in terms of being competitive in the exporter market as we see. but let me tell you india's a bright spot. and i can tell you for us we make in india for the world and for india as well. >> thank you for joining us. of course you hurt yourself,

pretty upbeat about the outlook for the indian economy. >> at this point who isn't. we thank you for that. a live interview coming out of davos where so many influential corporate executives but also politicians will be immediately commenting on what happens in washington dc. all eyes there as the 47th president of the united states is inaugurated. we will head right back out to washington dc ahead of that inauguration. live pictures of st. john's church were donald trump and his family as well as vice president-elect jd vance are there ahead of a jampacked day. that and plenty more coverage right here on bloomberg tv. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is 2:00 p.m. right here in london. u.s. markets are closed today for the holiday pride welcome to bloomberg markets. i want to dive into those markets because even though the stock market and the bond market stateside a closed you're still seeing futures that are higher and by the way surging as we get closer and closer to that inauguration of the 47th president of the united states. nasdaq futures higher about the same margin. starting to see a little bit of dollar weakness. dollar-yen at a 155 handle and you are seeing bitcoin klein. 107,000 for the cryptocurrency. european traders having to go to

work. let's take a look at those european indices as well. the stoxx 600 higher by 2/10 of 1% some slight outperformance in the u.k. higher by about 3/10 of 1%. the currency picture seeing a little bit of strength. another move off of that dollar distance. 12297 on cable. all eyes globally on what's going on in washington dc president-elect trump inauguration ceremony is due in just a few hours away. marking the beginning of the second trump administration let's get more on what we can expect. tyler kendall joins us from the white house. walk us through what donald trump's next when he four hours will look like. >> before president-elect trump goes over to the u.s. capitol to take the oath of office he is headed here to the white house for a ceremonial tea and coffee with president biden. resuming a tradition he did not extend to biden four years ago. the bidens and trumps will ride together to the capital to

complete the peaceful transfer of power. this is the first time in four decades that transfer of power is going to happen inside of the capital rotunda instead of outside in freezing cold temperatures here in washington dc. president-elect trump says he will still address his supporters who are now no longer able to attend that ceremony. he's been directing people to the capital one arena about a mile from where i am at the white house here and telling them he will go there to address them but the only thing, i was there yesterday. that arena fits 20,000 people but we know from u.s. capitol officials the 220,000 people were originally ticketed for today's inaugural ceremonies. >> certainly keeping a close eye on this. let's talk about the 46th president, what is his last one he four hours look like. what is joe biden leaving behind. tyler: after the inaugural ceremony he will then get a

ceremony sendoff at joint base andrews with first lady jill biden, we are expecting his first speech as a former president to happen there. as you know he is widely leaving office with relatively low approval ratings according to gallup. he has about a 39% approval rating which is down 18 points from when he took office four years ago. last week he said he thinks history will remember him more kindly than that saying it might take time for his policies to bloom for decades to come. citing some of his signature initiatives including the chips and science act. in key investments he thinks he will be remembered for. in these final closing hours he also issued some preemptive pardons to people he think could be challenged by president-elect trump once he's in office. notably last week during her confirmation hearing, pam bondi said she would not politicize the department. kriti: bloomberg's tyler

kendall, thank you so much, bringing us full coverage from the white house we thank you so much. staying warm of course as we continue out of washington dc. inauguration coverage begins at 11:00 a.m.. of course we will have continued coverage of donald trump's every movement as he gets closer and closer to being nominated as the 47th president of the united states. let's bring more insight on what that policy may actually look like. the chief investment officer over it infrastructure capital advisors. a pleasure to have you on the program. a historic day around the world not just in washington dc. walk us through may be a lot of investors are asking right now which is is this going to be more of the same from the first administration where it's going to be volatility and chaos or do you see may be a different tone being struck from the second administration. >> great to be on. we think the latter that it will

be much more thoughtful. in fact the futures surprising because it's a holiday and it really rocketed up 30 handles so we were down not long ago. on a report trump was not going to immediately impose important -- you know any import taxes or tariffs. so that's consistent with scott bessent's testimony and that's been our view that the fears of trump policy are much worse than what's actually going to happen. so we think investors are correctly positive about this administration and it's going to be much more thoughtful than it was then the first term. >> i'm sitting here anchoring the show out of london paid one of the big pieces of commentary i think is an american abroad were paying attention to is what takes precedence in terms of his

first 100 days. the tax cuts etc. or is it may be the things needed to fund some of those policies pray things like tariffs. what takes precedence were donald trump. >> i think about it and sort of two areas. there's a lot of them in a straight of actions of trumpet administration can take. -- administrative actions the trump administration could take. also sanctions on russia and iran that's going to be an issue for oil prices. and then also a counter to that is foreign policy with regards to opec and the saudi's adding them to produce more. administrative actions and then you will have this gigantic tax bill and that's why we are positive on tariffs. tariffs produce revenue that can then be used for tax cuts and i would have investors try to focus more on corporate tax cuts

, that's what drives stock prices, that's why of the 7000 18% effective corporate tax rate. so focus on that tax bill, the personal tax cuts will extend. what we don't know is the corporate rate. that's really the key variable not weathered tariffs are 10 or 12%. or exactly what energy policy is or really that corporate tax provision of the gigantic tax bill. kriti: walk us through. i want to get to the nitty-gritty of the 7000 s&p 500 call. so much of the achilles' heel of those bullish reactions to american assets has been a second inflationary scare. donald trump's administration and presidency has already been deemed inflationary by so many of the wall street banks. can the two coexist.

can a full gospel rally in the s&p 500 coexist with higher inflation. jay: probably not, but we have 100% non-consensus view on inflation. we follow milton freeman's -- milton friedman's view that inflation comes from monetary policy not from other random elements and not from economic growth. so most of the fed and most of our participants are teens ian's. so higher economic growth produces inflation. there's is no history that supports that. it was proven correct during the pandemic in inflation one of exactly the amount that was excess growth. the money supply shaking by 3%. so we think we will go below 2%, the risk is to the downside. nobody is talking about the fact that the dollar has appreciated by 10%. highly deflationary.

we think oil will stay under control because of foreign policy with the saudi's arid so we don't think you could have 7000 and rising inflation, but it is not appreciated and inflations declining. you talk to people below 2% if you properly measure it instead of using inflated prices. we have an index on our website that does that. so we have all the spasms about inflation and we will attenuate just like were seeing this morning. when people see the real policy and see if there is any, we think there will be some spending constraints. so we think particularly with regards to bonds a very huge by when they get up to the 10 year at 5%. >> it's fascinating, you do certainly no doubt have that kind of counter consensus view there you mentioned the dollar. when we talked about this kind of inflation versus stock market narrative, let's talk about the dollar versus the stock market.

some of the international investors look for the dollar weakness to invest in american assets. i will refrain the question pretend dollar strength and a stockmarket market rally, hand in hand. jay: we think the u.s. economy is at risk if we do stay in that range. so partly because it makes the dollar very strong. you out -- u.s. fed policies were more hawkish than the rest of the world. so that slows down the u.s. economy, the housing market is not well understood but is already in a recession two quarters of negative growth and housing investment. so that's why we think we are very bullish about bonds and then bond rates dropping because the best cure for higher rates is higher rates so we do see slowing u.s. economic growth in the first half the fed then responding cutting rates the dollar weakening up and then having up stock market boom

towards the back half of the year. kriti: certainly something we are keeping a close eye on. chief investment officer at infrastructure capital advisors walking us through the narrative on the s&p 500. 658 is where we are. on the futures contract coming up we will continue that coverage and joined by greg valliere a for what to expect from the trump administration. does he concur with jay hatfield's take on inflation whether or not donald trump could be causing it. stick with us, that will be next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome to bloomberg markets. it is of course inauguration day over in the united states and markets are indeed close. let's go to the desk to greg, chief policy strategist over at

agf investments joins the program this morning. a pleasure to have you on the program. it's a historic day in washington and around the world. a lot of campaign promises that may or not be fulfilled from president-elect trump in the next couple of years. walk us through what you think is going to be his first policy priority. >> i think it will be immigration. i think by the end of the day today he will have executive orders that will begin a process of deporting people, my sense is the next three to four months will be rocky read we are not going to get a budget deal anytime soon in the house as you know the speaker only has a couple of those to spare. i think the second half of the year as you previous speaker was saying the second half be pretty good but i think all of the hype right now about how things look great are overdone. >> overdone in what way?

i just want to argue the other side of this which is what is perhaps manageable given that there is no house majority at the moment. greg: i really think the big issue that's being overlooked is the speaker of the house mike johnson doesn't have the votes for anything. he maybe has a two votes to spare and there's a dozen or so very conservative republicans in the house who may not go along with anything so this could be difficult. on the other hand, i would say if historians look back today on 50 or 60 years from now. i think the main theme will be the tech sector. silicon valley. the big stars at today's inauguration will be people like elon musk and people who clearly are protech and i think the tech sector is going to enjoy an exceptionally lenient regulatory policy for the next couple of

years. >> it's interesting you say that because isn't this the president that may be were to go tougher on tech to begin with especially on the right side of the political spectrum. what has changed here and what could potentially change for some of these trillion dollar companies in the united states in terms of how they operate in the u.s. and around the world? greg: a fair question. and i think there are people like zuckerberg who change their stripes and want to get in on what's happening. i just think that's the regulatory climate is going to be a big part of the story. i would predict trump would talk quite a bit about it in a very lenient laissez-faire regulatory policy. that's just a great story for silicon valley. >> we are of course looking at live pictures of the moment it looks like donald trump has

officially arrived at the white house and currently meeting -- i'm completely misspoke. , harrison joe biden with their counterparts getting ready to receive donald trump at the white house i believe donald trump is still at the moment in transit at the moment from st. john's church for the next step for him is going to be at the white house but you can see, harrison joe biden and their spouses both getting ready to receive them. let me bring you back into the conversation and walk us through simply this idea of regulation you were just talking about. i can understand that there's a question of may be operating a little bit more freely and we've seen mark zuckerberg and elon musk among others make this comparison but for financial audience there is a thought here that with the kind of departure of the likes of lina khan for example at the ftc and other may be tougher individuals over the doj this could also open up the kind of floodgates for m & a and acquisitions from the tech space, something that might have

donald trump stamp of approval. do you see it that way? greg: absolutely. again laissez-faire climate, i think that it is still not well appreciated on capitol hill, let me make this. i joke frequently that congress is not going to regulate ai because they don't understand it. congress doesn't understand the internet. chuck schumer has a flip flown. they have -- so the lack of sophistication on tech issues on capitol hill is really quite remarkable. >> what about the tiktok band? i think a lot of us are wanted to find out what happens next year. what can a precedent does that send in terms of donald trump as a dealmaker for not only american corporate's but international corporate's operating in the united states. >> it's a really good point because i think trump has promised so much and will get a

deal with tiktok, he's made very lavish promises and now have to start delivering but by the end of the day today. i think they're still weeks and weeks ago before there's any resolution. on tiktok. my own gas is that somebody very wealthy is going to buy it. some american will buy all or most of tiktok and that may defuse the controversy. >> certainly something we are keeping a very close eye on. i know a lot of tech executives showing up at the trump inauguration. greg, too little time for you we will have you on soon. chief u.s. policy strategist at agf investments joining the program as we await donald trump's arrival at the white house. to be greeted by joe biden and kamala harris. still ahead we will stick with that tech story. tiktok disappeared then it came back. dated by donald trump. we will dive into the details

next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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kriti: welcome to bloomberg markets. you are looking at live pictures at the moment of donald trump's motorcade leaving st. john's church in washington dc.

he is now headed to the white house. we just saw images of donald trump and melania trump getting into the motorcade that will be departing shortly their next stop is the white house were we also know joe biden and kamala harris are with their spouses getting ready to receive the 47th president of the united states. we will bring you those live pictures as we get them. in the meantime we will talk about one of the first things on his agenda. tiktok per u.s. service is restored after donald trump alleged delay enforcement of the ban though unclear if the apps chinese parent can secure u.s. backer in time to avoid a permanent shutdown. bloomberg's -- peter joins in you now. can they secure u.s. backer? >> there's a lot of back-and-forth over the weekend. we saw tiktok at shutdown and we saw a lot -- solemn, out of the app store and the google store. we had this bill that was passed

with bipartisan congressional support banning the app as of today so trump has said he will issue an executive order we anticipate him issuing a couple hundred executive orders today so it could be in there but it's not clear exactly whether he has the power to restore the service of a long-term basis. they still need to be able to hand over control of the u.s. operations of tiktok to some company that is not bytedance. and there's no sign that there's negotiations of mood forwarded all or there's anything serious on the table so this may be temporary reprieve. >> in doing this, if it were to continue to indeed band tiktok they are basically taking a page of the chinese playbook. elon musk tweeting the platform is still banned in china as well-paid walk us through ripple effects of tiktok. we know oracle supports. we also know some of the buyers are some of america's guests

tech companies. walk us through who may be the most affected. >> elon musk was making important point that x is banned in china and other services are banned in china. so in the united since i cannot abandon of an act it's very popular. there will be competitors who benefit including facebook. they came out with their own services as well at the same time but it's not clear whether they will be would get a deal on these u.s. operations. you've seen other chinese apps come in and pick up some of the services. one of the chinese apps has been very popular in the united states and gives a lot of opportunities for people to try these services. kriti: peter walking us through the tiktok story. coming up we will dive into foreign policies -- foreign policy angles of trump administration. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: welcome to "bloomberg markets." i'm pretty good day here in london. just under two hours away from donald trump's inauguration to be the 47th president of the united states, a second term for him. we are on the edge of our state, watching every single development. kailey leinz, where should we start? why should we be paying attention to in washington? kailey: most immediately, we will be paying attention to the white house, where outgoing president joe biden and first lady jill biden will be there come a of the tradition of the transfer of power, ceremonial,,

yes as will be much of the activity today come as we see trumpet moving from the white house to the capitol where, of course, he will be taking the oath office at the capitol rotunda rather than outside because of the frigid temperatures. he will address the country in his inaugural address, and which we understand he will talk about the "new era" for the united states, and he might talk about executive orders that he will sign in short order. we expect those to largely be focused on the issues of immigration, energy, and the federal workforce. on energy come he could sign some executive orders that could address things like pipelines and natural gas, and potentially banning elements of joe biden's clean energy addenda". -- agenda. he may reenact the remain in mexico policy. that is a few of the many executive orders we are expecting to see today, kriti. he said at a rally at capital

one arena that there could be 100 or perhaps more. kriti: kailey, you mentioned that we are, of course, awaiting donald trump to arrive at the white house where we do know joe biden and kamala harris are getting ready to receive him. you laid out about one million executive orders that may be on the docket. [laughter] what is the easiest one to get done in the mission accomplished column? kailey: well, depending on the language in them could ultimately face legal challenges. one example being donald trump, the extension that he extends to sign of the tiktok ban, to give them more leeway. but given the actual way in which that law was written, january 19 was the deadline. it is unclear if he is able to extend the deadline after the fact. we can seek some of these things mired in court, but he does have power on executive things like emergency declarations which he

could use on the border. we do have reporting fresh from the "wall street journal" that he will be apparently signing something to look at trade relationships with countries like china as well as our neighbors here in north america, mexico, and he does have the authority to do that. it's an issue of what the president can do unilaterally versus what will require buy-in from congress when it comes to bigger picture agenda items, thinks he wants to get done like an extension of his 2017 tax cuts. he will need the legislature to go along with him on that. certainly he will try to do as much as possible right out the gate, and we will see evidence of that today, kriti. kriti: bloomberg's kailey leinz, thank you. she will be staying with bloomberg for complete coverage of the operation, beginning at 11:00 a.m. eastern, i believe 4:00 p.m. u.k. time. we are getting live pictures out of blair house, where the trump

children, including ivanka come, jared kushner, as well as jared kushner's father charles kushner are boarding the motorcade. we will watch pictures of that as we get them. for more on what to expect under donald trump the second presidency, we have a foreign-policy angle we need to discuss. joining us now, i'm pleased to say, sir peter westmacott, former ambassador to the united states, france, and i believe turkey as well. sir peter: yeah. kriti: quite the resume. peter, i want to start with, how do you interpret a second donald trump administration? is it with the same roadmap as the first? sir peter: kriti, good to be with you again. i think it will be different. last time around, he did not really think he was going to win. he was not ready for it. he did not have a team of like-minded people ready to examine his agenda, whatever it was. this time around, he was pretty sure he was going to win. he has lined up a lot of

supporters and donors, and political allies to fill some of the important positions he needs in order to move ahead. so i think we will find he will do a lot of things he says he will do. i don't know at what speed, but i think the rest of the world is ready for donald trump to do more of what he said he would do. kriti: as you are speaking, we are getting live pictures of jd vance and kamala harris making their appearance at the white house as well. the current vice president with the vice president elect posing for a photo opportunity, awaiting donald trump's arrival at the white house where he also will be graded, according to tradition, by the current president joe biden. i want to bring you back in the conversation here. this play but we are seeing, it comes within 48 hours of context within the middle east, where a cease-fire agreement that was penned by joe biden been taken

across the finish line committee feels like and in tandem with trump at some of his policy advocates there. is that the way to be thinking about the way the u.s. goes about foreign-policy? so many objectives that were maybe 90% they are from the finish line, donald trump can push that further. is that the way to be thinking about it? sir peter: i think it is, because you are right, 90% has been done by the blinken administration, well, by the biden administration with antony blinken. people in the israeli government had held out. hamas had held out. and then i think donald trump saying there will be "all hell to pay if we don't get this done before i'm inaugurated" helps to focus. the middle east envoy had been in the region, very firmly, i'm told, to the israeli prime minister, don't mess this up. i think he has helped to get deals over the line. without that, what we have got

there? not clear. if you remember the end of jimmy carter's time, the hostages were released just as ronald reagan was taken over. -- taking over. it is a little similar to that. what you are seeing is the uncertainty of a new trump administration, leaving people wondering what is going to happen if they don't do what he has asked for them to do. that said, i think both sides were willing to do some kind of a cease-fire here. some of these hostages being released, some of the palestinian prisoners being released, but there is not yet a roadmap for settling the middle east, palestinian state, there's not even yet a roadmap for normalization of israel's relationship with the rest of the countries in the region. but this is never the less progress, and i think you are dead right to see this in terms of the trump administration building on something which had been done assiduously over the year or so by his predecessor. kriti: when it, comes to the

roadmap the relationship between israel and some of its regional peers, what does it do, the cease-fire that's currently holding at the moment, tbd if it does. with the united states relationship with egypt, cutter, jordan, lebanon, etc., what does it look like under a second trump administration? sir peter: the main uncertainty is all about saudi arabia, which is one of the main countries as you mentioned which has not gone along with the abraham accords, which is normalization with israel. where is that going to go now? we don't know at this stage. the saudis have said until now we will not sign on to that normalization unless there is a clear plan for dealing with the palestinian issue, some sort of two state solution. there has to be something about the west bank, who is going to run guys i? those are still uncertainties -- run gaza? those are still uncertainties. egypt, jordan, those are stable

at the moment. the big question will be not for tomorrow but for soonish, what about iran? iran has its proxies, hamas, hezbollah, which in syria, who these in yemen -- houthis in yemen. they've all gone. now what is going to happen? will iran decide it wants to move toward getting a nuclear weapon? i think america, israel, and a lot of other people will not want that. or is there potential for diplomatic opening, because iran is weakening, you have a new american president was very clear views about what should be done in terms of relations between iran and the arab world and i and israel. but i think something important given that area as well. kriti:kriti: as you were speaking, we were seeing live shots of capitol hill inside the rotunda. it looks like they are preparing for the ability to simply greet the new president elect,

definitely something we are watching very closely. let's continue the policy conversation on the foreign policy front. let's talk about the conflict on our doorstep in ukraine. i think this is a campaign promise donald trump had made on the campaign trail that the minute he gets into office, he's going to negotiate a cease-fire in ukraine with vladimir putin. is there truth to that claim? sir peter: his special envoy, kellogg, has said they one might be a little ambitious. we are looking at three months or six months. a degree of realism has crept into that discussion. i think still donald trump would like to make progress in this area. what i hope he not going to want to do is to try to push for a deal, which is giving essentially vladimir putin when he's got through his illegal and brutal invasion and leaving ukraine in a terrible situation. the europeans care deeply about this, partly because of their own security and partly because

they do not want putin to be able to help himself to whatever territory he wishes, not just because it is morally wrong and bad for european security but also because it is a signal to other autocrats around the world, you know what? the law of the jungle replaces the rule of law. you can help yourself to whatever you'd like. i think that is bad for america, bad for europe, and part of a challenge for european diplomacy is going to say to donald trump and those around him, by all means, move toward a settlement and end of the slaughter in ukraine but not on vladimir putin's terms. it has got to be something which is much more balanced than that and much more reasonable toward ukraine's interests. kriti: where the conversations in europe has been if there is this kind of messaging coming out of the united states, as you have beautifully outlined, this kind of almost creates a little bit of a tailwind or extra incentive to invest in defense funding. you've seen in u.k., france, sort of germany, certainly other parts.

but to what extent, when so much of europe has basically fiscal handcuffs wrapped around them, how much of the expectations that donald trump may have for defense spending for nato contributions are realistic for european governments? sir peter: european governments have needed to address this problem, kriti, for a long time. then president obama would talk to me about military capabilities of the european countries, including the united kingdom, which is never the less one of the two principal defense capable countries in europe. but we were not spending enough for doing enough. our ability to make a difference militarily, with ships, with soldiers has not diminished. i think that needs to be addressed anyway. i think we donald trump has done is given nato a kick up the backside. it is a wake-up call. and so has, of course, the invasion of ukraine. if ukraine is going to stay in this battle, the europeans are going to have to do more in terms of equipment.

some will want to help with soldiers. we are already helping with training. there's a lot that needs to be done. you are right, it is a difficult time because of high debt levels. don't overhang among most of the governments. what is a way of reducing spending? but i think most of the european capitals are saying, you know what, defense capabilities, but it is not just how much you spend it is how you spend it. these have to be a top priority for us, especially right now. kriti: it is a fascinating conversation, one that was certainly outlined with long directives from likes of mario draghi, keir starmer as well. sir peter westmacott, always too little time with you. former u.k. ambassador to the united states coming to france, and to turkey as well. we are seeing images of washington as we believe see a motorcade rise to capitol hill. we will bring you all the updates as donald trump approaches and gets ready for his inauguration. coming up on the program, michael green joins the show

to discuss paris, inflation, and the markets. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: welcome to "bloomberg markets." "the wall street journal" reported that incoming trumpet administration and the united states will not impose new tariffs just yet, not right off the bat. you will see new movement in trading. a bit of a drop in the dollar as well. weakness in the euro, pound, and the japanese yen. we are joined by simplify asset management she strategist michael green.

pleasure to have you on the program. as the truck tariffs -- is the trump tariff playbook the same this time around? michael: i think there will be an expansion and the structural approach. incoming treasury secretary, or potential treasury secretary scott bessent has been clear that things will be targeted and consistent. the question is, how large should they become and how broad will they become? we just don't know. this will be one of the uncertainties as we look forward into this coming year. kriti: so does that mean headline risk is something you trade on, or is that something you kind of head? how do you approach it? michael: this is one of the interesting things in the market the last couple of years which is the idea of zero data being able to hedge things that are unknown. by definition, tariff announcements will be unknown, so the question is, will you

have to put on a more protective portfolio ahead of these events, and, again, the challenge becomes are you protecting against the rest of tariffs or that risk that expected tariffs put on? the volatility is really the price of that protection. kriti: you mentioned zero data expiry's. i have to ask, so much about has come from the retail trading cohort. how much of the broader volatility trading do those zero data expirys actually make up? michael: their most active users are actually the market makers options themselves that provide a tool that allow them to hedge their positions and other to the market in a very liquid and low cost fashion. about 75%, 80% of the volume is in bad dealership

community. about 75% of that is retail activity, although it is a combination of buying and selling. activity associated with it. the last thing, we are seeing a two minus amount of use for his institutional investors, as i indicated, hedging against specific known events, the cpi release, the fed meeting come etc. that has taken about one-third of the volume of traditional hedging market. in a lot of ways, it has been helpful. then you see events like august 5 in which the market makers react to an excited volatility by simply not trading and creating huge feedback loops. retail is probably the smallest part of the story, believe it or not. kriti: all right, michael, let's go big picture and bring it right back to the stock market. donald trump's perhaps favorite asset next to crypto. there is a consistent -- consensus on wall street that

the deregulation will only make the stock market rally even more. if that is the case, what is the achilles heel? what brings it down? michael: i think there are a couple of achilles' heel spirit again mentioning and treasury secretary scott bessent, he has highlighted the idea that tariffs will not be inflationary. i happen to agree with him, highlighting relative prices come if one goes up, the prices will fall in response to that, higher price for some, and less will be demanded overall. the problem is a lot of the metrics we use for tracking things like cpi basket are fixed over periods of time, so there will be disruptions to this. it is very hard to imagine there's not at least one unforeseen impact on the cpi component that causes markets to say, is the fed going to react? is the fed not going to react. that to me feels like the biggest single risk that exists from a policy standpoint at this point. kriti: something we will keep a

very close eye on. we will see if it comes to fruition for example by asset management chief strategist michael green joining the program. coming up, live to tel aviv where the cease-fire begins with hamas releasing three israeli hostages in exchange for 90 palestinians. the latest is next. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ what does a good investment opportunity look like? at t. rowe price we let curiosity light the way. asking smart questions about opportunities like clean water. and what promising new treatment advances can make a new tomorrow possible.

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kriti: welcome to "bloomberg markets." i'm pretty good day in london. the cease-fire in gaza is underway. about 1000 palestinians in prison. bloomberg's even bronner joins us live from tel aviv. very quickly, can you give us a state of play of israel? ethan: sure, kriti. i mean, as you said, three hostages were released yesterday in exchange for 90, 30 each,

palestinian prisoners. hundreds of truckloads of goods are entering the gaza strip. people are emerging from shelters and tentes. -- tents. there's an effort to begin the break in structure and imagine what gaza could be after this terrible destruction they have suffered. the next hostage prisoner exchange is this coming saturday , where four hostages are released for one hundred plus prisoners. and then the two sides have to begin negotiating what happens after six weeks. what kind of cease-fire they could be. kriti: something we are keeping a close eye on. bloomberg's ethan bronner joining us from tel aviv to walk us through the state of play. the cease-fire now about 36 hours and counting. meantime, live pictures from the white house where donald trump and melania trump are meeting

joe and jill biden at the white house, according to tradition. it looks like the current president is welcoming the president-elect to the white house for a peaceful transition of power. they are awaiting the photo opportunity. the next after a brief meeting inside as they will be departing to the capital, where the swearing-in ceremony will happen. donald trump's children, including ivanka trump and jared kushner and their children, among many others, have already arrived. meantime, president joe biden and dr. jill biden entering the white house. who will bring you live pictures as we get them and of course at capitol hill. we are now about two hours away from the swearing in of the 47th president of the united states. more coverage up ahead. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: 3:00 p.m. here in london, 10:00 on new york -- in new york. we know the u.s. stock market and bond market are closed for martin luther king jr. day. it is also president-elect donald trump's inauguration set to bring in his second presidency in the united states played let's bring in more context with annmarie hordern who joins us now from the capital. set the scene there for us. annmarie: the capital certainly is bustling this morning as now we have the inauguration moving from the steps of the capital to actually inside the rotunda

given the weather conditions in washington dc. what's happening right now is president-elect donald trump is in -- on the other side of pennsylvania avenue having tea and coffee current sitting president joe biden and first lady jill biden break a company by his wife the future first lady melania trump. those four will get into a vehicle and make their way to the capital. this is something trump did not partake in when biden became president but they are partaking at this time around to really try to highlight this idea of the peaceful transfer of power. once trump comes to the he will be sworn in and giving a speech. some of those excerpts have been reported that he will talk about a carnage speech in 2021, this time talking of a common sense approach isn't a lot about unity and then it will be a flurry of executive orders focused on immigration, energy and also

federal workforce potentially rolling back some diversity equity and inclusion measures there were put in place under biden. kriti: speaking of some of those measures and those policy pieces put under biden, donald trump has already talked about signing 100 executive orders and may be more in his first couple of hours in office. walk us through some of those orders that stood out to you. annmarie: there will be a ton of executive orders. underneath those's executive action sprayed there will be some 200 executive actions and they are little bit more specific. the direction of travel for this administration in the first week and 100 days will be focused on immigration and the border. this idea of things like remain in mexico. they want to get those policies that were under trump 1.0 back into place when it comes to things like energy they want to have executive orders to have more energy, oil and gas drilling. some of which we saw pared back

under the biden administration. some of these can be performative and a lot of them may end up with legal challenges in court one that may come very soon because the president really was broadcasting in talking about it is to talk. tiktok went dark at one point in the united states. president trump says he will sign an executive order to give the company 90 days to divest. if not, then that app, the company would be banned the united states preyed making to the combined offering for that company and get that executive order either today or tomorrow when it comes to that 90 day extension for tiktok to find a buyer. >> certainly something we will be keeping a close eye on. donald trump calling himself a big deal maker. bloomberg's annmarie hordern we thank you so much for bringing this coverage right at the

capitol building where the inauguration is due to take place. stay with bloomberg for complete coverage of that inauguration. in the meantime, on the others of the atlantic global leaders are gathering in davos this week the world economic forum. haslinda amin is on location joining us live from switzerland. haslinda: it's not just about trade, trump and tariffs, it's about how ai can level the playing field between the haves and have-nots and one company trying to do that is g cash, the largest fintech in the philippines. more than that it's become a super app. let's talk to their president and ceo, good to have you with us. as we talk about g cash being a super app, what are the global areas looking to help level the playing field for those. >> what we've been doing is we've been leveraging the technology particularly ai in

order to give a proper identity to the underserved in the philippines, more than 90% are belonging to the lower eco-class and therefore more than 50% of them are undocumented so we are working with the government to give them proper identification. in the meantime we are using technology to give them accounts , financial accounts. we help the government increase the -- and that way gives them an identity and a financial account that allows them to transact. the other one is with the transactions they make in our app we are able to score them and give them proper credit score. this -- the huge informal lending in the philippines and it is ironic that the underserved are the ones that are victimized by loan sharks

but are also the ones that pay a premium on interest rates. so we are trying to address that through proper data scoring, credit scoring so that they have a good credit score they can borrow properly through formal lending and that's what they do -- what we do. haslinda: what may some of these be? they can already buy stocks on the platform. martha: products we want to offer soon we are working with the government to offer cheap bonds for as low as nine dollars. the more than 90 million subscribers of g cash cannot now have access to that. apart from that, we are also doing expansions internationally. filipinos living outside the philippines or working outside the philippines, we are working to serve them. in remittances but also paying

bills, so now filipinos from around the world can pay the bills for the families in the philippines. >> you recently raised some funding and i'm wondering what are you going to do with the proceeds that of come through. martha: we recently raised almost $1 billion, the value g cash so we are using that to expand further lending business and also invest in platforms that would support our ai work. haslinda: of course, an ipo, there's been a lot of euphoria because that is likely to be the biggest ipo in the philippines. can you share some details on when that might be? martha: there's been a lot of buzz about ipo and we would love that to happen, but for now there is no definite plans preyed we are looking at options and timing as well.

but regardless of ipo or not, our focus is really to grow g cash to the next level and look at the new revenue pools that will propel the growth of g cash even further. haslinda: when might that be in the next 12 or 14 months? martha: with the markets good that is part of the factor. so we could do that as well even as we go through all the things required. haslinda: but you are already a profitable company. what would you do the funds raised. martha: expansion, to further expand our lending business. haslinda: could you put a figure to that? martha: it's been doubling. the businesses been doubling the past two or three years and we are also expanding our international business and b2b. so those require a lot of investment as well. so that is where we have planned to focus our investments and the growth for gcash.

haslinda: what do you see as the biggest risk for gcash in the next 12 months? martha: i think as technology happens and advances, and ai we also see a lot of features on ai , it also needs a proper governance as well so we don't want it to go haywire with all the excitement that's been happening. we've been working with various institutions and countries to help put the proper governance of ai, the second is proper education and cybersecurity, of course with digitalization globally and also in the philippines, the adoption and the knowledge in digital is also different, especially across all economic class and education level. so we need to make sure people are aware of the consequences of sharing your details to whomever and making sure to protect your own identity. haslinda: martha, thank you so

much for joining us preyed president and ceo martha sazon. that conversation coming to you live from davos. kriti: thank you so much. some great conversations all week long, we are looking forward to seeing how they progress. in addition to on the ground reaction to the new president of the united states. coming up we will dive into the energy side of the equation. president biden's climate change actions in jeopardy as president-elect trumpcare to take office may even declare a national energy emergency. we will dive into the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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kriti: welcome to bloomberg markets preyed hours away from president-elect trumps inauguration and with that plans to invoke emergency powers to boost domestic energy production including reversing president biden's climate change actions.

bloomberg senior executive editor for energy and commodities joins the program. what does that mean? >> a lot of people would say what emergency. the u.s. oil and gas industry is producing more than ever before. and compared to other parts of the world, energy is pretty cheap in america especially natural gas where it's less than a quarter of what cost in europe. so what's actually going on in here. what trump wants to do is to roll back the modest efforts biden made towards energy transition and to change the environment which oil and gas industry operates and that means deregulation. that means allowing drilling in some areas where biden had banned it. recent attempts to bar other parts of the u.s. continental shelf, it's likely to mean ending the moratorium on new energy projects. there are small things this can do to improve the operating

environment for the oil and gas industry but it's not going to make an enormous difference to the outlook for oil and gas production in the united states which is dominate by economic sin geology. >> you and i are sitting here in london. we know lng has been rising quite significant lead during both administrations certainly since the offset dutch onset of the war in ukraine. does it make it easier for the u.s. to export lng to europe or is that an infrastructure constraint that has to be addressed. >> it is an infrastructure constraint but they will address that and and the moratorium on new plants but those are several years away. it can do an awful lot in the shorter-term to increase that flow. a lot of european nations may be keen to buy more gas in the u.s.. clearly trump has said publicly that he wants to export more energy or risk -- tariffs.

ultimately -- but i do think the move is likely to be supportive of biden. >> how was i being received pay how was saudi arabia and other members of opec thinking about this given the u.s. is already the number one oil exporter in the world. will: the most important thing in the oil market has been the impositions on the dying day the biden administration and new sanctions on russia which appear to be very dutch people are talking about them having an impact of a 2 million barrels a day which would be enough to alter the balances this year and that's where we've seen this year's rally in oil prices. the question for the middle east and what's happened there is what's trumps outlook for sanctions on russia and sanctions on iran and whether he will ask him to replace some of those barrels.

people in the middle east will think about less about what the u.s. will do and more what the foreign policy will be towards russia and iran. kriti: will kennedy, who's next four years are about to get very exciting. thank you so much. we will get more insight on some of those challenges. tina fordham will be joining the program to break it all down. stick with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: welcome to bloomberg markets. with more on president trump second term. what it means for the markets and the politics let's bring in tina fordham, global foresight founder and political strategist. a pleasure to have you on this historic day. we've been spending the last 2.5 hours talking about foreign policy, domestic policy whether tax cuts come first. for you in the may be hundreds of executive orders that may be coming down the pike, what takes precedence? tina: for markets it's clearly tariffs. i thing we've already seen a response to the suggestion that the trump administration wasn't

going to be in a rush. to impose tariffs on china. we heard president trump talking about a study group a kind of thing we've heard before. and this is positive from my perspective, some investors might've been disappointed by it initially. because a trade war is not really something that the global economy needs. and the delay suggests i think some very welcome openness to engaging in diplomacy. kriti: as you are speaking just getting live pictures i believe inside capitol hill a sighting of vivek ramaswamy who is expected to be one of the members alongside elon musk of the department of government deficiencies, a department that has not been sanctioned by the government but maybe coming to fruition from the executive order. i want to bring it back to the foreign policy story about tariffs as well. how effective are tariffs from your perspective given that it's

coming off the heels of joe biden's approach which was perhaps more carrots rather than stick in the form of the inflation reduction act. tina: i look at tariffs through a geopolitical lens and surprisingly because i am not an economist and so the big question that we have is what does the trump administration hope to gain from the threat of tariffs or the use of tariffs. are they as it's been suggested a revenue-generating tool? are they meant to kind of set the tone for the administration going into negotiations carrying a big stick. but whether we are talking about trump or biden, the use of sanctions as a kind of tool bordering on you could say a weapon of economic policy is something that's been with us for some time and we've been tracking this in our research but will be on steroids we think

in the second trump administration. kriti: it is interesting day to have this conversation simply because we are getting reporting first reported by the wall street journal, talking about donald trump will not unveiled china specific tariffs on his first day in office as the incoming administration starts. instead calling for a study from federal agencies in terms of the ripple effects. let's take the chair of conversation outside of china. are there other regions that may have a more inflationary ripple effect back into the states? tina: being based in europe, there is huge concern that a double whammy of tariffs against the u.k. and eu member states on top of demands for higher defense spending is going to really cause a lot of political risks here and so there is a huge concern, you can see this

in the public opinion data as well about the extent to which a trump administration is going to make europe's challenges even worse and then there are of course america's neighbors china and mexico. as and mexico. both on the sharp end of tariffs. that is surprising for historic u.s. allies with what this administration has talked about using tariffs against allies. kriti: the tariffs against allies specifically steel tariffs, under the biden administration the steel tariffs with the eu have now become quotas. has there been some thought or market analysis in terms of the use of quotas relative to actual tariffs in terms of how investors and market recipients view that? >> what we hear from our clients , from ceos and investors is a sense of confusion about how

these tariffs will be applied. i am not sure that there is a systematic sense of how to interpret them. europe is bracing themselves for there is a preemptive kind of anticipation, for example the european union has offered to buy more u.s. gas in an effort to head these off. this speaks to the extent to which tariffs are a negotiating tool and also the possibility that asks of the trump administration from allies can be mixed. in other words if you buy more u.s. gas will you be more under less pressure on defense spending. no one was really clear. in the case of mexico, it is understood it is more about the border, fentanyl, likewise canada. i think it not being clear is part of the plan.

kriti: certainly something we are keeping a close eye on. ripple effects and market reaction to canada and mexico and the topics you suggested. thank you for coming on and talking about the ripple effect on the tariffs story. plenty of other stories as well. that kind of almost seesaw effect weighing the two sides of lng exports versus nato defense spending. china and india as well which may be dealing with protectionism as well as all of south america which just inked a trade deal with the eu. there ripple effect in changing places and all of that. coming up on the program, ross mayfield on -- despite the team's view that we are in a good place for a soft landing. what does that mean in the context of inflationary pressures from donald trump and beyond? stick with us, this is

bloomberg. ♪

kriti: welcome to bloomberg markets. let's dive into those markets print justina lee joins us now. we've been talking about the stock markets closed, the bond markets closed and yet the markets are moving quite a bit in the currency space, commodity space and certainly the crypto space. i did not think i would walk in and ca 106 handle on bitcoin. can you walk us through the dynamics playing out. justina: all of the crypto fans are getting way friendlier in the administration. you even have trump talking about turning crypto into the national priority. he himself, lonnie a trump issuing their own mean coins in a way even though they say they are not exactly investment

assets. you definitely have an administration fully on the crypto bandwagon but we also hear some complaints from the crypto world asking are we going to get another four years of crypto remaining as more of a speculative asset just tied to whatever mean coins is trending on social media or will we see more institutionalization of this trend and i think with what we've seen over the weekend with trump coin it feels more like a speculative asset. kriti: we are getting live news. we just saw melania trump in jill biden depart in a car together headed towards capitol hill for the inauguration. we are waiting for chip -- pictures of joe biden and donald trump to head in the same direction. as we see them we will bring you those images. the crypto space is interesting because of the same time we have seen crypto rallying we've seen the dollar rallying as well. to me it almost feels

counterintuitive from a fundamental narrative that the dollar is this reserve currency and is supposed to restore value and crypto is a must the antithesis of that. this decentralized. how do they rally together? justina: that's what's interesting about her current moment. a lot of it is just tied to the personality of donald trump and just so happens both of those are trump trades right now. i think you can almost say the same about both in that they are momentum assets. if you compare it to some fundamentals people will say there is no fundamentals in bitcoin but they can see it pretty stretched. the question is does that mean as soon as we get any indication on the contrary we will see a pretty -- a crypto selloff. kriti: giving a boost to the euro and the pound. justina lee, a pleasure to have on the program for walking us through some of the markets

stories. you're getting live images from the white house. we are waiting, joe biden and donald trump to leave the white house and head over to capitol hill. at the moment we just saw melania trump and jill biden leave now we are seeing kamala harris and jd vance also head over to the capitol hill building. next up we of course believe it will be donald trump and joe biden there. they are getting ready for the indoor capitol hill inauguration to make donald trump the 47th president of the united states, kickstarting his second term in office. a little bit more analysis in terms of what the markets will be thinking around this. baird investment strategist ross mayfield joins us on the program. you picked a hell of a day to be here. especially on a day off when markets are closed over in the states. we been talking about what this trump playbook actually looks like especially around headlines around the tariffs story.

for you, what is the trump playbook in the second administration? does it look like his first? >> i think it looks a lot like his first so i think we can take some lessons from the first term. obviously i think they are hitting day one more prepared this time around so there will be quicker action. having the people in place they want in place. we might see a quicker movie administration but immigration, tariffs and tax cuts, those of the three pillars. we are seeing some of those trump assets rally but by and large, set against the soft landing markets. i think the continuation of the trends we saw on the biden administration across 2023 and 2024. they have something to do with the policy landscape but a lot to do with the economy. kriti: there is a consensus the u.s. economy could do no wrong. the regulation will be a

tailwind for the stock market. what drops the stock market? with the achilles' heel of that argument? >> we've seen it over the last couple of months here is if bond investors and bod vigilantes expect a stronger economy and higher inflation will persist if not in perpetuity at least over the next three or four years, you see long bond yields. so the 10 year yield creeping up pushing up towards 5% has been achilles' heel of the market over the last couple of years. i don't think that's necessarily a death knell for equities. we seem long protracted bull markets with higher yields before. it's a tactical risk to keep in mind. the other one you've seen as well which is sentiment. the euphoria around the tax cuts and deregulation really leads the market price to perfection. so any chink in the armor along the way will be an outsized response from the stock market.

kriti: describing outsized response. some say we've already seen to your point isn't it a momentum trade as justina was telling us or is it more of a defensive trade may from international investors that are going for the big tech names going for the bond market and strong dollar. which is it? >> the unique thing about the mag seven and the big tech companies in the u.s. is cash rich, they have these lot of different businesses they are very monopolistic, oligopolistic , but they also are linked to some of the biggest secular growth themes but we see in the market today, so you know, it's definitely a sign at the top to be calling at the best of both worlds but there are some people who are investing in the growth stories here in the u.s. where the ai trade, quantum, but also

are seeking the refuge of a strong dollar paid of u.s. treasuries because there is so much policy terror trade uncertainty, so i think it is kind of a bargain. it's a little bit of both on both ends of the spectrum. there are certainly plenty of momentum. the market is still in an uptrend so there is plenty of investors on the sidelines that have a chance to get in this market. >> talk to us about what the hedge is in that situation? so many investors hopping into assets is the hedge paid i will put that thought on pause for a moment because we are seeing the doors of the white house open and you are seeing donald trump and joe biden exit the white house. they are heading for capitol hill where donald trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the united states in a tradition that goes back generations. the current president will be

escorting the new president-elect to capitol hill for that peaceful transition of power. something, larison joe biden underscored at this moment. those of the live images from the white house. this comes after the party attended the service at st. john's church and are now headed to capitol hill where a slew of people are waiting for them for an indoors inauguration. i believe the first in quite some time. we will bring you live images of that as they enter the capitol hill building for this very historic moment. talking about the hedge were so many international investors are looking to the u.s. as a potential hedge. how does a u.s. investor hedge their own exposure. ross: it's the right question to ask. one thing you see in this bull market in equities is a rally in gold alongside it you don't see those usually happening in conjunction brave a lot of people are looking outside of the traditional monetary system

whether it is something like cryptocurrency or gold. as a bit of a hedge, both against what you were talking about and against the broader geopolitical uncertainty that we are seeing in the market right now were maybe we can expect from a trump 2.0 administratio i think from a sentiment perspective it is hard to find the time where people are as bearish on international investing in the u.s. as they are today. strong dollar, i do think people should give up -- shouldn't give up on international investing. it can act as a hedge against idiosyncratic risks in the markets. this is the time when a lot of people are throwing in the towel but i would urge against that. kriti: certainly one we will be keeping a close eye on. walking us through that market reaction and how you play a second trump presidency in these markets. we will take that conversation with a low bit of a different angle.

bitcoin hitting an all-time high ahead of donald trump being sworn in. we will discuss that side of the market trade. stick with us is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: welcome to bloomberg markets. we are seeing a live image of donald trump and joe biden in a motorcade on their way to capitol hill were donald trump will be sworn in as a 47th president of united states. those live images out of washington dc right now where temperatures are below freezing and certainly the crowd awaiting

both of their rivals. looks like for donald trump and joe biden. , harrison jd vance already en route as well to capitol hill as his jill biden the melania trump en route to capitol hill. following a church service at st. john's church, you know the trump children have also arrived at capitol hill as well and are awaiting donald trump and melania trump there as well. in the meantime for his next 24 hours after he is sworn in at the capitol building we should just mentioned he has immediately expected to sign several exec adored her spread some of them including energy changes, natural energy emergency powers being granted as well as well as his first words on the tiktok ban and the tariff story as well. there is a lot going on in terms of what these next 24 hours will look like for donald trump and investors maybe have a day of reprieve to digest what that looks like.

markets are closed in the united states, not only the inauguration, but also martin luther king jr. day as well which mean the stock and bond market are closed. the currency markets are very much alive. seeing the dollar drop and weaken substantially on the story the wall street journal initially reported suggesting donald trump will take a beat before going to really inflict some of the tariffs on china. that will be a key part of this. bitcoin trading over one handle. as we wait donald trump's arrival to capitol hill. a little bit more from corey clips dean. a pleasure to have you on the program. if you can just walk us through the narrative behind crypto right now. how does it get to 106,000? >> thanks for having me on. it's nice to have you and

hopefully the first of many. an incredibly historic day here with the first ever pro bitcoin president. obviously he is pro-crypto as well which comes with a mixed bag of priorities. so for bitcoin, the headliner and an asset class unto its own, it's been quite a price rise. we saw weekend slump where it dipped down into the 99 range and then this morning it ticked over to 109 on a few exchanges. and it's now settled into the 106 range. kriti: a lot of this has been focused on the fact donald trump will deregulate and make it easier for crypto firms. can you explain to investors who aren't exposed to bitcoin how this fundamentally changes the way cryptocurrencies may be able to operate? >> there are two distinct asset classes print bitcoin and everything else.

that is something to keep in mind. on the bitcoin side there is not much that needs to change. it's been pretty clear from a regulatory standpoint going back 11 years that it's a capital asset. it's a commodity according to the sec and the cftc. on the crypto side these are companies with centralized versions of blockchain's that can be controlled or they can monitor the supply and we should think of them more like venture-capital bats on companies actually doing something. there is now a new subcategory which is in a lot of notoriety which is mean coins which do not pretend to be doing anything on the technology side and are purely just sentiment based that people can bet on if they think other people will bet on them as well. and that's it with the launch of the trump coin and milani a coin in the last couple of days. for the sort of original crypto trying to figure out some way to deliver some value beyond just

trading these coins, they are going to have a free rein to do what they want to do in the u.s. going forward. the sec has had a major shift towards hand off -- hands off and people are piling in and sort of expecting a bit of a wild west period over the next four years at least. kriti: certainly something we will be watching closely. it comes at the same time we have such a massive surge in the dollar as well. some arguing the fundamental thesis is the antithesis of investing in the dollar is well-paid don't get me started on things at the digital dollar and euro. we could talk about this for hours but for now i have to wrap it up. cory clips dean joining the program. thank you so much pride as cory was speaking to us with the crypto story and what donald trump's presidency may mean for the sector we are getting live images of the trump motorcade. officially arriving at the capital building. this is where he will be inaugurated for just to be the

47th president of the united states and i was just told will be the first indoor inauguration since ronald reagan second term in 1985 so certainly one to break tradition of at least last 40 something years. he is joined by the current president joe biden, he is already going to be meeting melania trump, jill biden former first lady and the current first lady and new first lady to be as well. as well as vice present, harrison vice president-elect jd vance per they are all awaiting jd vance donald trump's arrival within the capitol hill building. we have those images live for you. he is expected to be sworn in, the ceremony expect to kick off in about 10 to 15, maybe 20 minutes time followed by the executive orders per you can now see he's officially signed the capitol hill building trade to which he will be sworn in to be

the 47th president of the united states. the executive orders is where a lot of the market attention will be paid the next 24 hours may include with the tiktok ban may look like, he already talked about a 90 day extension for tiktok and is also talked about declaring a national energy emergency in a bid to help deal regulate some of the peace of the energy infrastructure we were just talking with her senior executive editor about that as well. he's also potentially going to be making some comments on the tariff story. bloomberg breaking the story alongside the wall street journal that the tariff story may not be a day one kind of act. he may postpone that going into may be further or certainly one of the study some of the federal department's come in handy. clues for which we will be finding in terms of his first speech as the 47th president of the united states. there are plenty of world leaders who are attending his inauguration including the vice president of china, xi jinping

will not be joining. but he has sent his second-in-command. plenty of tech ceos as well, jeff bezos elon musk, mark zuckerberg, the tiktok ceo do to be there as well. there is also from europe sitting here in london talking about the international leaders as well. giorgia meloni will be representing it feels like europe in this inauguration. this historic moment among many other leaders around the world as we also debate from a foreign policy level this tilted to the right as well. there is a lot going on in terms of dynamics and the energy and the history in washington dc right now. stick with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: welcome to bloomberg

markets. we are moments away from president-elect donald trump's inauguration, let's get to annmarie hordern. just described to her international audience what you are seeing. who is in the room? annmarie: as president biden said president-elect trump as he arrived in the white house before he arrived here at the capitol they set for coffee and tea and president biden said welcome home. it is somewhat of a homecoming for president-elect trump. he will be inaugurated for the second time. he was the 45th president and set to become the 47th president and i can tell you the tone and the tender this time around is very different especially even how what we are seeing an excerpt of what he may say after he sworn in. he's good talk about less carnage of america and more about its future and prosperity. common sense solutions. who is in the room, incredibly different it's the who's who of the tech world and some world

leaders are attending most notably the ambassador but you of giorgia meloni and the prime minister of italy, she was recently in mar-a-lago and met with president-elect trump when it comes to the tech world obviously elon musk, an individual who was on stage last night at the rally not far from where were standing at the capitol arena came on stage with his son as well to talk to the audience alongside president trump. the only individual in his orbit to greet the rally alongside president trump last night. the likes of a grandma swami. tim cook is also here, a very notable given what president trump said about tim cook last night. but the two had a phone conversation and tim cook plans to make a massive investment into the united states following his election when britain we're still waiting on details of that but this is what the president-elect was telling the campaign rally yesterday. we should note in just moments time he will be sworn as the 47th president alongside jd vance who will be the vice

president. and then following that, there will be a lot of pomp up here on capitol hill and then president trump will do a number of things. one will be signing a slew of executive orders. this will be about energy, about immigration and just about federal workforce rolling back some de i programs. and then because of the weather and every thing it be moved inside the first time since ronald reagan's presidency there will not be a parade outside so there will be another rally where trump can greet some of his supporters as well. once again at the capitol arena. >> annmarie hordern live at capitol hill. thank you so much, she and our team out of d.c. will have complete coverage of the inauguration in just about five minutes time. historic moment, the first indoor inauguration since 1985, certainly much colder today.

-- much colder than it was today. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> to our tv and radio audience this worldwide, welcome to special live coverage of the inauguration of donald trump. i