>> le golden age of america begins right now. today i will sign a series of historic executive order is and with these actions we will begin the complete restoration of america and the revolution of common sense. i will declare a national emergency at our southern border. the inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices and that is why today i will also declare a national energy emergency. my proudest legacy will be that of a maker and unifier. >> this is bloomberg surveillance live from davos with jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from davos for our audience worldwide from the world economic forum.

good morning and welcome to a golden age of volatility. yesterday people got excited about the prospect of the incoming president taking a measured approach of trade and then he change things pretty quickly. lisa: this speaks to the fact that j.p. morgan has a war room to look at what proposals are coming out to understand what they are and what they could be, and then change it all again the next day when there is a new proposal. jonathan: bad news if you are canada or mexico may be by february 1 there might be tariffs. good news for europe and china as far -- but it is far too soon to say that. things can change quickly and we saw how that played out. lisa: we are here in switzerland with the afternoon bells ringing right now, not morning bells. i think you need to adjust and adapt to the place where you are. and we are good afternoon. i think this is good and going back to the whole idea. we start the idea with the idea

of washington meet -- washington, d.c. and that is all that everyone is talking about and that highlights those degree of the golden age of volatility. this is what people want to know about at a time where the u.s. is the dominant growth engine and force a change in the global market. jonathan: this is not the center of the universe this week. the center is washington, d.c.. we have said that the president will act and davos will react and that tees up the programming. lisa: the reaction is that we are in and we believe in it and we are with you. donald trump, how can we get a piece of the dynamism in the united states and that is what we feel. the issue is how much does the ship from the rhetoric that we have heard at the meeting in the past number of years? jonathan: if you are in the united states you feel good. if you are outside trying to get in you are nervous and anxious because there is a long line of companies looking to do the same thing. lisa: that is the reason there

are 70 bankers talking about how to do that. the big question is how -- you will be allowed to do that and how much the regulatory regime has changed and how many international companies are looking to become more american. jonathan: we will talk one of those bankers. but for now we go to washington, d.c. and we catch up with anne-marie. what a day one. what is in store for day two. annmarie: we will probably get more executive orders and that is what donald trump promised and delivered. you have got -- you guys have been talking about a flood of executive orders. the priorities were things on immigration and energy, lifting the moratorium on lng exports and rescinding some of the biden era executive orders and then also adding some of his own. pulling united states out of the world health organization. also when it came to tiktok, when that executive order hit his desk he did say, tiktok, i

like that one. why? he feels like he is in charge saying that he wants to have a deal and give the social media app more time to strike a deal. what is so interesting was not in an executive order. that was explicitly aimed at other countries when it comes to terrorists. that was missing. we got a bit of back-and-forth in terms of where he is going with tariffs and he is eyeing mexico and canada. take a listen. >> we are thinking in terms of 25% because they are allowing mass numbers of people. canada is a very bad abuser. vast numbers of people and sentinel to cme -- fentanyl to come in. and i think on february 1. annmarie: potentially that might be the timeline when it comes to canada and mexico. not only is this the whip song of headlines might be a nuisance

for financial markets, what is interesting as a country that is not mentioned. at the moment president trump says he is invited to china and he is ready to make some calls and a deal with xi jinping. jonathan: stay tuned and watch this space. i have a feeling we will be saying that a lot. annmarie from washington, d.c.. lisa: we are basically talking about the whip sawing of the news flow that will impact companies around the world and they are trying to adapt right now even as the headlines change. jonathan: joining us to kick off our coverage of the world economic forum, the head of banking at citi. it is good to see you. >> good morning or good day. jonathan: how improved in the mood is corporate america with a simple change at the top of the country? >> it was improved postelection. you saw a lot of frenzy and expectation and you could file. and look, it is risk on. folks want to go.

there is a ton of liquidity and a lot of pent-up excitement. so, let's wait and see. lisa: which area? foreign companies looking to get into the u.s. or u.s. companies stymied because of the ftc under the biden administration. where are the areas of the pipeline building quickly? vis: all of the above. if you look at the valuations of u.s. companies, you have 67 or 68 percent of the world's capitalization and that is increasing by the day. you are seeing the business -- the biggest pools of liquidity in the united states. and even when you look at the valuation arbitrage corporate versus europe and the rest of the world there is a massive differential. and then you have a lot of liquidity, the $2.5 trillion or thereabouts of waiting to deploy. and you have product -- private

-- private credit and pools of liquidity available. you put all of the building blocks to kind of get this thing moving. just one point on your question, i would say that there are u.s. companies that have all the ammunition to go outside and within. and given making america the u.s. next says, a lot of the overseas companies will look inwards to open a plant and do capex and the like. lisa: you are a global head of banking for citigroup, a global bank that has stretched across the world. how many of your conversations are dominated by the united states right now? vis: it is at the center of all discussions. at a basic level of the supply chains and working capital management, how do we get organized around the dollar flows and the like. you have seen our corporate bank

and treasury services businesses absolutely engaged in dialogue and organized. and then transitioning into the boardroom. if you look at the valuations currently in the united states, with that comes responsibility because companies and boards have to say for this valuation i want to show growth. it will come organically or through acquisitions. so the minute your growth is not forthcoming they vote with their feet. you have to grow organically or have to go and build. so, then once again you have a strong dollar, which is in the u.s.' favor. in this valuation. all of the currency and backdrop is there. jonathan: what i hear from you is not just u.s. or european companies trying to get into america but u.s. companies using their well valued equity to look at europe with an exchange rate on their side. how much of that can we expect in 2025? are you having those

conversations actively? vis: the tailwinds are all the things i described. you have jams of companies and sometimes we call them good houses in bad neighborhoods. dollar earners trapped in certain jurisdictions where there is a valuation impairment. these are eyeing those tools. the key is going to be around -- the headwind is nationalist tendencies suddenly take hold. if the tariff regime gets heated up, if barriers are erected by the united states, who retaliates and how do they retaliate? suddenly if you have a krause border visual transaction and certainly countries will say these are jewels in my crown and they are not for sale. jonathan: i think a lot of people made quite a lot of the people who were at the president's inauguration, all of the tech ceos. people are cynical and skeptical about why they might be there. i take a different view.

that was a celebration of the best of america. the biggest leaders not just in corporate america but around the world. and we get the sense now that the incoming president will look to protect them and go out to places in europe and say we have their back you stop going after them. do you expect to see more than that not just from the americans but the europeans and maybe the chinese as well? vis: i do. let us go back to your question on tech. it is not tech alone. it is a common thread about -- across every industry. if you take autonomous driving or health care and retail so even an old-fashioned very industrial company when they look to acquire they look to acquire in software and tech adjacent. you see tech permeate every industry. and this is something from a bank point of view.

that mining of the seams is something you need to do well. that is where most of the activity will be. in addition to all of the peer attack like the whole ai space and cybersecurity. all of that will thrive, but the tech adjacent will also thrive. i can almost kind of understand the roster on the front row is really the way in the direction of travel that we were already on but that will get more pronounced as we see the administration and the future pan out. lisa: it also speaks to the golden era of volatility and wanting to have a foot in the door at a time where there is so much uncertainty and competing headlines. j.p. morgan was talking about a war room trying to understand each headline and they have been up all night. is there something similar in citi's banking department? vis: most banks have groups

parsing through every line of what was said and what was not said and what is the direction of travel and citi is the forefront of internal thinking and advising clients on what to expect. lisa: you have been at citigroup for a full year and more than that -- seven months, not even a full year but completed the fiscal year. it was a good year. i am wondering how much you attribute that to the business cycle and changes that you have personally made at the banking division? vis: i would attribute it a lot to the changes that jane has made. she has really grabs the business both from the stuff that needed mediating and transforming and also the focus on the front office, and the client side. and absolutely dealt with it head on. when you look around the teams there is a vibrancy and entrepreneurial -- we wake up in the morning and there is a spring in our step when you are

believing in something amazing and you are part of something amazing. that is infectious. you saw the results in the quarter and the year and there is real momentum. i would kind of creative -- give the credit to the chain and the leadership team and all of the building blocks in place to put all of that and take it to the next tight. jonathan: as you look around a room in a table of exceptional talent there is one empty seat, the head of m&a, when does that get filled. vis: that seat, when you look at the bench and the need you have outstanding talent. you have kevin who is running the group who is an outstanding practitioner and he has been in the industry for a long time. with the teams we have real m&a and outstanding professional so we have the health care team is a team that we had from goldman and they are at the forefront of

the johnson & johnson trade and there is a lot of news of the pipe. so what i really want to do is kind of measure instead of rushing into things. there is a lot of talent internally and that is when i want to take the call on when the months pan out and what momentum we have and how to get established and then address that. lisa: could you give us a -- jonathan: could you give us a sense of interviews taking place externally instead of internally? vis: no comment. we are open to all ideas but there is such a bench that i want to evaluate what i have. jonathan: i also hear that there is a potential that the seat does not get filled and you can accomplish your goals without it? jonathan: that is what i am saying. there is so strong and you are looking around and if you look at our pipeline there is a lot of progress and momentum.

i really want to digest what i have and then take a call at the right time. it sounds like you have hit the ground running. vis: it is. there is a lot of his commitments and anticipation. all of the building blocks are there to make something out of it. jonathan: the mood is improving in corporate america. vis: let us emphasize that. jonathan: it is very different for everybody else. thank you. thank you sir. let us get you an update on stories elsewhere. let us go over to dani burger to get the bloomberg brief. dani: los angeles is facing extreme fire risk for a third straight week as hurricane strength wind returns. a rare and particularly dangerous red flag warning has been raised. wind gusts as strong as 80 miles an hour our forecast. malibu and san fernando are the city most in danger. veteran republican senator marco rubio has been confirmed as

donald trump's secretary of state. he is the first of president trump's second term nominees to be approved. he served 14 years on the senate foreign relations committee. ♪

jonathan: live from davos from our audience, it is day one for us. equity futures are positive and there is tons of volatility. we will be discussing that throughout the program. under surveillance is the golden age for the u.s. economy. >> the united states will once again consider itself a growing nation, one that increases our wealth, expands our territory, builds our cities, raises expectations. my recent election is a mandate to completely and totally reverse a horrible betrayal and all of these many betrayals that have taken place and to give the

people back their faith, their wealth, their democracy. the golden age of america begins right now. jonathan: the golden agent for america begins right now and we have already in the last 10 minutes, for america. what about for everyone else? lisa: everybody is going to lean in and hope it will trickle back with may be diminished tariffs and that seems to be the hope in davos. jonathan: joining with us is the chief dimensional officer -- commercial officer for manpowergroup. this is a different davos. >> it is. growth is topping the agenda and practical approaches are topping the agenda. it is a different year. jonathan: what has changed? at head of this event we saw some various companies coming -- pulling back from de i initiatives and distancing themselves from espn at zero. what is the hind that, one man

and one shift? becky: it is a shift on how people think about the workforce. the truth remains, diverse talent joint -- drives better results. i think as we talk to companies they are saying that we will not lead with it in terms of marketing but we will still do some of it behind-the-scenes because we still need workers in the workforce and we are not getting a new population. lisa: there is a question about immigration and how much of that will up end what you track, a labor market in the united states, how much of that is top of the agenda for people you speak with? becky: really not at the top. if you think about the labor, it is a lot of jobs that were historically not tracked in bls indicators. i do think it will cause a tightness of the labor market to get tighter today and that is something we have to keep an eye on, what happens to wages and flexibility.

i do think we will see a tighter labor market if the immigration reform but the challenges that we will start deporting people, if that happens. lisa: this is a question, how tight the labor market is when some people were talking about a weakening u.s. labor market. are you saying that the tightness is still there and that a little bit of distortion from immigration could cause wage pressers to dust pressures to a rise of new -- arise anew? becky: we have held unemployment study and workforce participation study. and we have not overheated at numbers that traditional economics would be overheating. second, any pivot, boomers retiring, any loss of participation will be a talent with skills assessment and the fact that we need new skills for new technology. jonathan: what is the talent gap like? becky: we did a survey globally

and in the u.s. and three quarters of employers say they cannot find the talent that they need. it could mean quantity or specific skills for new roles. we are seeing a two-sided pressure. we do not have enough population and we need specific skills and we need to rescale our workforce with an employee who feels more empowered than ever post-covid. jonathan: are they worried that they will not be able to import that talent? becky: very concerning. we will be keeping in close eye on that environment. but having that talent will be the question. if you look at global population growth the u.s. hits 100 year lows every time we measure. people are marrying later and not having as many children. the talent that will grow will be in africa and india, places where we might need talent in developed economies so reframing how work works will be important. lisa: how important is the conversation evan that there is a different tone and it is not

about bringing people who are the downtrodden and trying to equalize wealth. there is a different tone. how is the conversation different? becky: different tone and pressure. growth will create demand and demand will create demand for talent and then we are back to a tight labor market. the tone is more optimistic and your opening comment about what about the rest of the world? the rest of the world is looking at it like if there is u.s. growth want a piece of that. tariffs, to be determined and we hope it is a moderate approach to stimulate u.s. manufacturing in good competition. lisa: what does that look like and can you develop what that means? is that hiring people to be part of wings? is it to emulate what is going on in the united states? becky: it is going to be both. all eyes are on the u.s. so we will have students of what growth looks like in the u.s. and companies, multinational companies without posts looking

for their share of this growth inside our borders. i think it is optimistic, the most optimistic confidence that i have seen. my question is when that translates to action and that is what i am waiting for. jonathan: i think we are all waiting for that. thank you for your time. of the manpower group on the u.s. labor market. another voice feeling good about the situation. as for everybody else, mexicans, canadians, europeans and chinese are nervous about what could be coming from washington, d.c.. lisa: you can see that in the canadian dollar and mexican peso and the quick response to the headline of a potential increase 25 percent starting february 1. how much becomes reality and how much of this is a negotiating tactic. jonathan: we know how it works we sought in trump volume one. you do not get too excited and he wait to see what he has to say. lisa: unless you are a trader unless you gotten trade. jonathan: they are going to take

a measured approach. the headline is redundant. lisa: basically saying a little bit more measured. jonathan: a deep breath and things will change quickly. up next the former imf chief economist from davos, switzerland. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: it has been choppy overnight in the equity market. futures breaking lower off the back of comments from president donald trump on the prospect of big tariffs on the likes of canada and mexico. positive by one third 1% on the s&p. last week one of the biggest weeks since election week on the s&p 500. some morning movers. manus: helping some of the duration in big tech as opposed to a drop in yields. one story not unscathed this apple. sales in china of the iphone. 18%. globally, down 5%. who is stealing tim cook's lunch? huawei. because of the ai functionality

not on the generation of iphones. look at the lineup of those tech bros ceo's behind donald trump. cook, zuckerberg, bezos. there was one ceo that was not the intel ceo. the stock had a storming friday up 9%. is it a takeover target? what are they going to do with the company? worst-case scenario for tariffs not and limited. you can throw any dart at the board. you have a narrative there could be something afoot in terms of the m&a space. if are not on that road behind trump, maybe your access to power is a little more limited. deutsche bank raised the target to $60 from $56. delivering high-end guidance consistent execution and aggressive in their share

buyback trajectory. that is the assumption from deutsche bank. ev market. 9.5% of the market going back to those edicts, potentially from this new white house revoking the electric vehicle mandate. that will be top of the executive orders. good morning. jonathan: manus cranny, appreciate it. so much talk about the dream team lined up for the inauguration. a lot of pushback about that. what are they getting? what did they want? we never asked these questions of democratic donors of the last two years. lisa: practicality. if you have some voice to the ear of the president trump you have a better position for policies. that has always been the way it's worked. it is more clear, much more explicit this time around. that is what we are hearing in terms of davos. jonathan: annmarie is in washington, d.c. what is your response to some of

the questions being asked about team america assembled out of silicon valley in washington, d.c.? annmarie: you can be a senate and say these are a lot of individuals who want to make sure they are close to power. they are looking at what elon musk was able to single-handedly do over the course of the election campaign. now he's going to be given a white house, a separate email account as he tries to bring government efficiency to the u.s. federal government. you see the likes of others say this might be good for my business as well. i think back to with mark zuckerberg said to joe rogan when he was talking about this isn't just about making sure we have good communication with whoever is in power. jonathan, you're right to point out we have seen this with democrats as well. i think back to the ev day biden did. they were made by union workers. back to what mark zuckerberg

said. he moved to the company to the right of where they were with adding dana white to the board. we talked about the fact it's important that foreign governments do not have access to our data. you heard trump talk about this in the past. to make sure the united states has its own national champions to combat not just adversaries but also some of its friends. think about the challenges a lot of tech companies face in places like europe when it comes to regulation. jonathan: appreciate your time. annmarie in the nation's capital. they should build on what mark zuckerberg said in that podcast. he talked about the europeans going after u.s. tech firms and how the administration, the biden administration gave the europeans cover. they were as against them. this will change a lot if people think that will happen next four years. lisa: it goes to the point of

the technological race and who will win it and why europe has fallen behind. it has been some of the investment in technology, the enablement of it to experiment with certain constraints. also to push the boundaries a little bit. all of a sudden it is a different conversation and how much you see that getting accepted by others that are not in the united states. jonathan: the u.s. innovates, china replicates. lisa: europe regulates. jonathan: maybe the chinese can pushback against that. i'm not sure the europeans can. lisa: it seems is a greater acknowledgment of that here. what was noticeable was the foreign companies, corporate executives, not sounding negative towards donald trump. not sounding negative towards policies that in 2017 they were. maybe we need to take a page from this and do something similar in europe and elsewhere. that is a huge shift. jonathan: american bankers are fired up. you heard it from citi.

joining us now to discuss that is the former imf chief economist ken rogoff. good to see you, sir. he wrote a piece in the south china morning post questioning whether we could see the same boom this time around as we saw last time around. i will give you some credit. back in 1617, you were not -- 2016 202520 -- 26 t--- ken: it was closer to true than not. for one thing if we are looking at policies, the things he did in the first term on the whole were constructive for the economy and deregulation. the tax cuts. getting rid of the state and local deduction was actually a good move over the long-term. this time every campaign practice -- promise practically

is something counterproductive. you can go to with tariffs, social security being not taxed and on and on and on. it is less obvious he has the same room to run with his policies. when he came interest rates were zero. now they are not. our bill for the debt was a couple hundred billion dollars a year. now it is pushing $1 trillion. he has constraints. we can expect quite the boom we got the last time. jonathan: ken was doing a powell. fantastic lineup. you mentioned we are spending more on the interest in america that we are on defense. are we at the tipping point where this becomes problematic? ken: we hit it a while ago. i don't know about tipping point to crisis but interest rates had been going down and down in the whole world.

i'm sure you interviewed them here over the years, secular stagnation, lower forever. that is here ingrained in the mindset. in washington and think tanks and central banks. debt is free. nothing to worry about. when interest rates are this high, then you have to think about it. we are running a 6.7% deficit on top of our $35 trillion debt. you start to pileup in interest. we have reached a moment where things -- it is the interest rate that has turned. it is not donald trump. it would have happened just as much if harris had one. -- won. lisa: interest rates would at 2% to 3% to the deficit over the coming years just based on where rates are currently. do you think they will stay here? will they go up? we spoke to you and you said the

fed could not necessarily cut that much. can they cut again? will they have to hike? ken: let's start with long-term rates. i don't think they are going lower outside of a recession. if i had to look at the next five years, i think we will get another burst of inflation sometime within the next five to seven years. this time we will not get a free pass. if expectations go up in interest rates go up even more. for now they are settled around 4.5%, 5% range. maybe in a recession going down. the fed is a different matter. my guess is the odds of a hike are as good as the odds of a cut. the fed was way off the mark on where the neutral interest rate was. that is why find in my research. they are adjusting. they are starting to see that. i don't think it is just the second. it is a longer-term phenomenon.

lisa: you are much less positive this time around. i'm wondering what that lack of positivity looks like in contrast to the optimism we are hearing from the bankers. ken: i don't have trump derangement syndrome. i try to have an objective -- we are starting at a very strong -- we have been booming for a while. it is a different picture somewhat then when he came in before. -- than when he came in before. it is not obvious where it will do well. not as many miles away as it was at one time. i think corrections to some of the things biden did are welcome. i get why so much of corporate america feels the wicked witch is dead and now they can finally

breathe freely on a lot of different dimensions. jonathan: i understand the wicked witch is dead. he was hardly warm and fuzzy with corporate america. gdp was decent. they are spewing out record profits. what is going to change fundamentally to the underlying economy? gdp growth, corporate profits? ken: the sustainability is highly questionable. yes, gdp growth was good. we have this massive deficit we are running. all these keynesians were staying the multipliers. for every percent deficit, you need to percent growth. we are running double the deficit that we are getting in growth now. immigration was probably larger than the official numbers by a considerable margin. that also is contriving to growth. they are nonsustainable.

it is true. you are right. some of what is going on was going to run out at some point. it is a more difficult situation that he's inheriting. jonathan: any evidence people are pulling back from the u.s. dollar and dollar denoted assets with that in mind? ken: the interest rate is the vote they have. i think our markets are very dollar oriented. over the long run there could be more fragmentation. the chinese don't like the system. you heard the session i was in this morning. a great, really economist from china. he was talking about everything they are doing to build away from the dollar. if you go back to the 1960's, europe was moving towards trying to have its own currency before it broke off. a lot of things were allotted in deutschmark. the big think is that the

interest rates are going up. people are requiring more. if they love the dollar so much, why don't they love it at one point 75% for the 10-year? that's what they were taking five years ago. lisa: something a lot of people were talking about. the u.s. can afford to are of more and more if the dollar is strong. you wrote a book about the dollar and the loss of its reserve currency status. is a getting closer as a result of the deficits? ken: i have a book coming out in may, "our dollar, your problem." it deals with this. some of your colleagues may have seen an early version. the dollar has just soared beyond anything people expected. not just the value but it's footprint. surely there are forces that will push that back.

crypto may not take over the legal economy with the illegal economy, the underground economy, which i find is 20% of the global economy, that is up for grabs. china needs to pull away. it pulls other people with them. that is a slow process. we have had a great run. it is not over. we might be looking at less exorbitant privilege in the future. jonathan: we are eating into raghuram's time. ken rogoff. let's get an update on stories elsewhere with your bloomberg brief. dani: human's -- yemen's rebels. attacking vessels in the red sea in response to the israel-hamas cease-fire agreement. they said that ships will longing to u.s. and u.k. individuals or entities are no

longer subject to sanctions. ships owned by israeli entities or sailing under the israeli flag remain banned. president trump halted a ban on tiktok. he gave bytedance 75 more days to find a buyer that resolves national security concerns. he could see a deal where american companies own half of tiktok to police it. the tiktok ceo was among the tech ceos in attendance to trump's inauguration. meta will continue using fact checkers outside the u.s. for now despite replacing them with community notes in the u.s. mark zuckerberg said he is replacing fact checkers because of mistakes and unfair censoring. the head of global business told bloomberg at davos they will watch how the transition shakes out in the u.s. before deciding on other regions. that is your brief. jonathan: up next, brisk ahead for global trade. >> protectionist measures are negative for global trade and

global trade is the lifeblood of the global economy. the measures taken are inflationary. they could slow down the disinflation process. ♪ ♪ ervicenow connects every corner of your business, putting ai to work for people. pfft ... every corner? every corner, nick. ow! so kate in hr ... hey kate. can focus on people, not process. patty in it is using ai agents to deal with the small stuff, so she can work on the big stuff. and ai helps jim solve customer problems before they're problems. oh, so we all work better, together! my work here is done. excuse me, which way back?

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♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ jonathan: did anyone actually get a long weekend? i imagine most of you were glued to the tv screens yesterday to wait to see a change of policy for the incoming administration. the market whipsawed, particularly in foreign exchange. the bond market, yields down for basis points. in foreign-exchange, what a 12 hours. lisa: some sort of dollar

weakness across the board. euro strength of the affectation that maybe the terrace -- tariffs were not as strong as expected. bam. out with the canada and mexico terrace by february 1 -- tariffs by february 1. jonathan: risks ahead for global trade. >> protectionist measures are negative. global trade is the lifeblood of the global economy. the extent that measures taken are inflationary will slow down the disinflation process that the central banks had stuff at least -- steadfastly worked on since the great inflation of 2022. jonathan: officials, companies, governments. they all have to have a plan ahead to respond. the threats will be there. behind they are working through this.

back to the comet from jv -- comment from jp morgan. they have a war room. they are all waiting to see what's going to change and try to understand what it means for everybody else. lisa: right now a peace offering as they try to get a with niceties. that is what we're hearing among corporations and even government executives. jonathan: another great conversation right now. joining us as a former rba governor raghuram rajan. good to see you, sir. great to catch up. let's talk about how you have a word of caution. you sat here in 2020 watching chinese cities close down. watching chinese equity markets break down. a lot of people did not seem to understand the scale of the problem or the magnitude of the response required. we have hardly done any cleanup since then. we spent trillions. how concerned are you about

something going wrong again and we will not have ammunition to tackle it? raghuram: that is the issue. think of the global financial crisis. we spent 50% of gdp across the g7 countries. the pandemic, another 15% of gdp. it adds up. we are north of 100% of gdp in terms of public debt in these countries. how much more space could we have if something believe that happens? it could be a pandemic. it could be a war. it could be something else which we can't think of now. big calamity of one kind or another. good times are when we create the space for the bad times. are we creating the space? we certainly need to do more. lisa: there's a question about preparing for the downturn and a question about how much the amount of debt we have is a limiting factor to some of the optimism we are hearing now from a lot of corporate executives. which is it? raghuram: we have some time to

go before things really turn ugly. the u.s. for example, the question when people think about safe assets is where else will you invest? the euro has its problems. japan is highly indebted. china, the geopolitical risk in investing in chinese assets. the u.s., both from equity markets and the bond market looks reasonable. an ocean of stability. there are things gnawing at the edge. we are seeing credit card liquid sees pickup -- delinquencies pick up. we will get to the end of the year and a lot of student credit will start coming out in the open. things to be a little concerned about. lisa: how much ammunition do

central banks truly have to cut rates at a time when inflation is still a problem? raghuram: the real question in the united states is how much the fed is fighting the fiscal. there's a lot of fiscal stimulus to come. the fed has been trying hard with higher rates. if you look at financial conditions, they have not tightened. partly because asset prices have been quite -- credit markets have been quite supportive. the only place easy tightening is the mortgage market. nobody has the money to buy at this point and can afford to buy. that is where it is hard to see signs of tightening. you are seeing deterioration on the edges with credit card debt. in general, the fed is not getting the economy to slow to the extent it wants. labor market is still strong.

jonathan: you think about a domestic or global neutral. we are very much restrictive. what is your advice to foreign governments in the united kingdom? officials across emerging markets as well? lisa: do you ever plan to go back? jonathan: what is your advice now as you see currency appreciate against the u.s. dollar and yields push up specifically because of what is happening in america? raghuram: the problem is everybody benchmarks against the u.s. the price of the rupee versus the dollar is a big political issue at this point. why is it depreciating so much? you can tell them all you want the dollar is strong against everybody. people look at the rupee-dollar. central banks are coming under pressure from seeing their currency to appreciate. on the other side, the number of

economies are having a problem with growth. they would like to stimulate growth. yeah, they would like to stimulate but they have their eye on what happens to the currency, especially if we see an environment of tariffs. karen c adjustment is necessary -- currency adjustment is necessary but they want to be careful about it. jonathan: raghuram rajan, former rb i governor. -- rbi governor. up next, catch up with josh friedman, ed mills, mitchell green. bytedance investor. then we catch up with steven tananbaum of golden tree asset management. you are watching bloomberg tv. ♪

>> the thinking in terms of 25% on mexico and canada, february 1. zelenskyy wants to make a deal. i don't know if putin does. i think he is destroying russia. i have to speak to president putin. we have the right to sell it or close it. i will make that determination. we have to get an approval from china. nato has to pay more money. nato has to pay 5%. they ripped us off. everybody rips off the united states. that's it. it is not going to happen anymore. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" live from davos with jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.

jonathan: we are so back. you can decide if that is a good or bad thing. there's only one donald trump, sitting president of the united states in the oval office signing executive orders, lisa, and then going toe to toe with the press about doing a whole range of things. if you want a snapshot of what this looks like worldwide, the dollar-mex all over the place whipsawed by the comments. lisa: they will not be tariffs in the first 100 days. he was going to hold off on that. bam, february 1. get ready for 25% tariffs on canada and mexico. the currency search. the mexican peso -- surge with the mexican peso. jonathan: sitting here in happy valley on day one at the world economic forum. every conversation, doesn't matter who you bump into, every single time the first question is not about davos and the

agenda. it's about the united states, the incoming administration and the changes we will see in the next four years. lisa: such a different town the 2017. becky frankiewicz said it is about growth and practicality, not usually were you hear about from davos. it is usually hype for the growth side or save the world. what is your agenda? how are you going to make the world a prettier place? those are not on the topic. it is data, how to get into the u.s., and how to grow your business. jonathan: all eyes on washington, d.c.. let's catch up with annmarie. that was one hell of a 24 hours. what's on the agenda? annmarie: it was and we have seen a slew of executive orders. i don't imagine those will stop just yet. we know that today president trump is going to meet with congressional republican leaders. speaker mike johnson and senate majority leader john thune will head to the white house. this is where it will get interesting in terms of his

agenda domestically. this is going to be a very difficult road ahead for those in congress to try to pass through trump's agenda. in the house, march 14, the government may shut down again. they are working on a stopgap funding measure. all the drama we saw has bled into the start of 2025. by the summer given the fact that treasury is using extraordinary measures to pay our bills, they. will have to raise the debt ceiling on top of that -- raise the debt ceiling. they have to hone in on the process if they are going to use one big beautiful, powerful bill as the 47th president >> call it, -- likes to call it, for a two-bill approach. when it comes to more money to the border, deregulation, and of course, tax cuts. jonathan: stay warm in washington. i can't believe i'm sitting here

with the snow and the mountains behind me. it is warmer here than on the east coast. in d.c. and new york, much colder there than it is right here which is bonkers. lisa: it is nice to be here. sorry. jonathan: so much more to talk about. josh friedman co-ceo of canyon partners joins us. josh: nice to see you. jonathan: we heard from citi and jp morgan. they are super fired up. do you share that sentiment? josh: i think the inaugural speech was essentially an advertisement for investing in america. if you try to get away from the specifics of the speech, it was a great storytelling example. it was advertising tech, advertising energy, advertising america is open for business and is going to be a premier example of a business from the environment for the next four years. that is why you are seeing optimism. jonathan: a lot of people had

questions about the text ceos lined up at the inauguration. they were skeptical -- tech ceos lined up at the inauguration. i thought it was advert for the united states of america. the best of the united states. are there opportunities for you? a lot of valuations feel pretty full in public markets. give us your perspective in private markets. josh: if you look in private markets, they are larger than public markets in many respects. the number of public companies has shrunk at the expense of private companies. if you look at credit markets, the private credit markets, private lending has eclipsed all the traditional sources of lending or is in the process of eclipsing those. there's been tremendous change. if you look at this as an open invitation to have more mergers and acquisitions, you have to think there will be more financing opportunities. i suspect that will be the case. antitrust will be much weaker. mergers will increase.

we will see what happens with interest rates. one of the barriers to m&a is high interest rates. if trump makes progress on the budget and there is a bit less inflation perhaps because of energy prices, perhaps because of productivity increases, you can see interest rates fall more than the market expects as well. lisa: we are hearing about the optimism. ken rogoff says hold on a second. you have to think about interest rates and inflation versus in 2016 and 2017. think about all the growth and what that will do to keep inflation sticky. how much does that make you less optimistic about credit markets right now than equity markets? the idea that base rates cannot come down all that much. josh: you have to do stainless between the short end of the curve and the long end. the fed has more control of the short end than it does over the long end. i have been a contrarian with respect to the long end of the curve. i felt inflation was not over.

i felt as long as the stock market was superstrong, which it was, and unemployment was superlow, why should the fed spend limited bullets lowering rates prematurely and trying to fuss with that when it might need those at a different time? i have actually been out of consensus the other way a little bit. i don't have as much conviction this time. it is hard to have a crystal ball about inflation right now. gets a much less certain picture. a lot of officials see it coming down. we see productivity gains. when everyone says they will raise rates, it makes my contrarian alarm bell go off and say maybe they are just wrong and it comes down a little faster than we think. particularly if progress on the budget deficit -- if there is progress on the budget deficit. lisa: how much does that make you lean into credit more if you do have pretty fully valued types of markets? josh: you have to distinguish

between where you lean into credit. spreads in the high-yield market are tiny, the lowest levels historically for many years. the fat part of the private credit market, the large tranche lending from the hyper scaled alternative investment shops has gotten a little too popular and spreads are gone from 675 now to 450 and the competition is based on rate for the same asset. acquisition activity has been somewhat muted partly because of high rates, partly because of expensive prices. a lot of money is sitting on the sideline chasing the same deals. by the same token, if you take one step back in size, one step up in complexity, it's a complete different picture. the same large institutions have chosen where they can scale their businesses the largest, which is the large cap deals.

if you scale back a little bit there's quite a bit of opportunity almost irrespective of the underlying view of rates. i think europe has become an area that has probably 80 basis points more attractive in general in acquisition financing and has less debt per dollar and better covenance. we have people moved to a different place independent something that might be attractive? where might there be more activity going for it? jonathan: a lot of people were very downbeat on the european economy. what is it you like right now? what you the deals? josh: there is slower growth for sure. governance in the u.s. has always been about as good as it gets subject to all the qualifications of a creditor violence and the dysfunctional behavior we see in these

distressed loan extension fights . in europe, it's a little more old-fashioned market. the crush of capital has not quite hit the same way. europe continues to be a functional, rules-based economy. beach economy is a little different. the u.k. is a little different from germany and france and spain and elite, etc. in europe, spreads for the same quality company and for the same growth profile are higher. the covenants are better. the rule of law is not so bad. i think europe, particularly for slyly be more bespoken smaller opportunities continues to be an excellent area of opportunity. lisa: you are the second person who mentioned europe is going to be the bright spot because of the low expectations. i wonder how much you are transitioning to europe versus just adding a little on the edges while trying to play in some of the m&a you expected come down the pike. josh: we are playing a lot in the u.s. there's a lot of overleveraged

capital structure from the last period and a lot of asset classes. it is true in real estate were you have companies that people have financed transactions based on very low cap rates. some of that debt is maturing. the assets, even if they are good quality, can't necessarily handle today's interest rate environment. in real estate, in asset-backed securities and some of the more leveraged private equity sponsor deals that were put together in the last five years there is a problem. pre-financing is not so easy in the right environment. in certain cases the equity market comes to the rescue. the sponsors have to keep the capital structures alive. they don't to uzair option to have upside. in other cases there will be restructurings and we continue to play but selectively. jonathan: is something going to break? your disc -- you are

describing something that might break. we had a mini crisis. do you expect the same episode in the next year or so? josh: i think the asset-backed world is somewhat devoid of the kind of capital and the returns are much higher than the ratings would normally command. i think real estate is a little broken partly because the banks that would normally come to the rescue are under severe capital restraints. it doesn't matter if you are citibank or jp morgan or a regional bank. a lot of the rules govern all capital deployments for all these banks. the capital reserve requirements are exceptionally high. i think traditional lenders to real estate can't engage in the types of financing the used to engage in. that leaves open territory for alternative financing. jonathan: a big 12 months coming up. thank you. josh friedman there.

a lot going on at davos. we have another location here in switzerland. i'm sitting down with the editor-in-chief. >> domestic consolidation. the main driver of value creation is domestic. european banks, we have been saying that for a while. we won't be able to compete if you don't have a banking union and a capital market union. look at the balance of european banks. it is not an issue but we are still basically financing a lot of things that in the u.s. are financed by capital markets. a lot of the resources banks use are going to different businesses. not necessarily, you know, in terms of profitability better performing ones. for one unit of risk by u.s.

bank has a higher return than on ever the european bank because of the role we play in the economy and in the system. fundamentally, in order to mobilize resources to transform europe, to go through the transition in terms of climate changes and investments we need to do we need to free up resources that are not used. capital market -- ♪

jonathan: if you're just tuning in, welcome to the program live from davos, switzerland. it is day one for us here on bloomberg surveillance. check out the equity market first. lots of volatility. that is all coming from washington, d.c.

equity futures positive i 131%, building -- by one third of 1%, building on last week's gains. the move in the exit can peso, weaker. -- mexican peso, weaker. lisa: tariffs delayed and brought back. this is the whipsaw we will see. i wonder if underneath all the optimism from all these executives how much this uncertainty plays into a lack of conviction. we are not hearing it. jonathan: we talked about this repeatedly. things are good. if it gets harder to import, whose problem is that? in america, they will run the economy hot. but we heard from citi i thought was really instructive. we heard from the head of banking at citi. he made the point that u.s. companies have buoyant valuations right now, you some of that equity backed up by a stronger dollar to go on a shopping spree around the world,

maybe in places like europe. that is a side of the m&a story i don't think we have talked about enough. lisa: we are not sure what the potential consequences could be of getting exposure out of the united states at a time when this is a president that is emphasizing america first. you could hear that from the head of banking and the head of citigroup. what the flight in the oil is underneath some of the optimism? jonathan: front and center, trump's tariff plans. >> in terms of 25% on mexico and canada. they are allowing vast numbers of people. canada is about abuse are also. vast numbers coming and fentanyl coming in. i think february 1. jonathan: annmarie is at the epicenter of the world, the universe of financial markets and global business. it is certainly not here. it is where you are. annmarie: it certainly israel

and that is what everyone is taking notice of. what is happening in washington, d.c. a flurry of executive orders. it was a light touch when it came to trade. even though as on the campaign trail donald trump talked about day one the walls would be going up. looks like that me taking more nuanced approach when it comes to china. china was not in that soundbite right there when the president was going back and forth. i want to bring in ed mills of raymond james. you were just in canada. everyone is asking questions. what are the tariffs going to look like? why is he starting with canada and mexico? ed: in the executive order china was in every area where canada and mexico were mentioned. he just didn't mention it. most of the deadlines in the trade executive order are april 1. i expect that to be the deadline. i think that a classic donald

trump. he gets asked a question, he will move the goalpost. he will tell you it is happening sooner so we all wait to find out what is next. i probably do not anticipate tariffs coming on for very one. but do i anticipate tariffs on china, mexico, canada, absolutely. how long they stay on, do they cut a deal, those of the market questions. annmarie: it felt like tariffs were not front and center even though we talked about tariffs being his most beautiful word in the dictionary and the fact that he said day one the walls will be going up. does that tell you he wants to negotiate when it comes to trade realignment? ed: just because it didn't happen on day one doesn't mean it is not a really important priority. i think what is happening is there is a debate that's going on between the peter navarros

and jamieson greers and team treasury or team econ. there are opportunities to unleash amazing things for the united states economy and tariffs are part of it but let's do it in order that does not negatively impact the stock market and negatively impact the american people. annmarie: there's been a barrage of executive orders. did any surprising? ed: the creation of the department government efficiency, doge, taking over another agency within the executive office of the president. an agency that was created by barack obama, the u.s. department of digital services, after the field launch of health care -- failed launch of healthcare.gov. it's an agency with staff, with a budget. president by requested $35 billion for that agency in his fy 25 budget. on march 14 when have to extend government funding, republicans

tkibuli plus -- can immediately plus up a budget. elon musk will have a budget and directive. increase the i.t. capabilities of all government agencies. there was a big selloff when doge was announced we would have been cuts to government contracts. this is a big plus up for government contracts. annmarie: it sounds like doge will cost some money. republican leaders going to the white house today. they will have to work with the president to enact his agenda. how do they get tax cuts done? that is where they will be the biggest fight on capitol hill. ed: we are debating if it is one big beautiful bill, two bills? i don't care. i think the base case is the tax cuts getting extended. one conversation happening out is do they actually become permanent through a trick of which score you use? that is not priced into the market. in addition to tax cuts we will

have an energy provision, defense revision that get added on. that gets worked out today at the white house. annmarie: go back to the scoring that is not priced in. meaning they don't go and try to extend the tax cuts for three years or five years to make sure that doesn't look like it cost us much of the federal deficit? they will say these are permanent tcja forever? ed: there's a choice when choosing your score. this gets walke but i would like to get a score that extends current law. you have to account for the change in the law and the 10-year score is north of $4 trillion were for you at another provisions. if -- add in other provisions. anything that is the law today comes back as a zero. under the budget rules, if you have a zero dollars score, years 11 through 20, all of a sudden it is permanent. that's how they did in 2017 and

how they are thinking about possibly making it permanent in 2025. annmarie: tax cuts and jobs act becomes the base case? ed: they do it as a baseline. annmarie: let's stick with congress. the majority is so slim. before they even talk about one or two beautiful bills, maybe smaller beautiful bills, they have to get through spending. 2025 spending. the government will run out of money and they have to raise the debt limit. what do you view as the timeline for this to get done? ed: i would add a lot of disaster relief, which brings people to the table. when we debate -- annmarie: california, east coast, the border. ed: in december, we almost added the debt limit but they weren't prepared. march 14, the debt limit could get addressed on a bipartisan basis. we probably go out to the date in mid-summer and that's where

it gets messy. if we get it done in march, that does free of republicans to focus on other things and that is the desire because there is a need to extend the debt limit, the need for disaster relief, to keep government funding and time to move on to every thing else. this gets done, is there always drama? this is washington, d.c., but this will not be a government shutdown. annmarie: there's going to be a lot of drama. our thanks to ed mills walking us to the nuances of what president trump will call the golden age of america. jonathan: thank you. might be a little too early for nuance. who knows what we are going to get. on the tax front, that is a much more complex issue. much harder to get people in washington to agree on what you should do on that front. how many republicans are there in the house that believe their king will push their own agenda through congress and ultimately put a bill for the president to sign who knows when?

lisa: to ken rogoff's point, in 2017, all stimulative for the economy. rolling back salt is unclear and that is on the table. jonathan: the unified team that has not got started just yet and may get started pretty soon. up next, play catch up with the bytedance investor mitchell green of lee as capital as president trump gives tiktok more time to find a buyer. ♪ ♪ all right. ♪ ♪ we're jammin' ♪

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jonathan: live from davos, switzerland, let's start with the equity market. futures on the s&p adding a little bit of weight to last week's rally. up by one third of 1%. similar on the nasdaq 100, up 5.5%. -- .5%. cpi came in softer. so did ppi. governor weller was very dovish. that encouraged the equity bowls going into the weekend. maybe to skip -- equity bulls going into the weekend. we have whipsawed in foreign exchange. lisa: volatility. it's about the dollar and whether the dollar is stronger. that mean tariffs coming on or if it is weaker. maybe tariffs will be postponed.

dueling headlines depending on the hour. not necessarily derailing the rally in most asset classes. jonathan: hi confidence. do you trust them? we have to get used to saying we don't know. we don't know what the next four years is going to look like. particularly the next week when it comes to things like trade. one thing we know is that manus cranny can get you morning movers. manus: one of the laggards is apple. sales in the last quarter in china on the phone dropping 18%. that took their overall sales down by 5%. this is about relinquishing dominance. relinquishing the real delta in the trade, which is china. if we have more tariffs, what position will the iphone play? who are you relinquishing dominance to? law way -- huawei. jp morgan downgrading the price targeted $260.

they keep it as an overweight. tepid at the moment. intel. the stock up 9%. you can throw anything at this wall. the worst-case case scenario is that the trump tariff salvo has not been launched at china. how was the foundry business doing? it was behind trump? bezos, cook, zuckerberg. the ceo of intel was not there. 3m. everything under the sun. consumer, energy, manufacturing, transport. it's almost the personification of the old ge but a little tighter and better run. the margins miss but it's about bill brown turning the company around. he's begun to talk about tariffs . they export $4 billion with the product and import $1.7 billion. it's about dexterity in their supply chain as a response mechanism to whatever tariffs are brought to bear in the

united states against allies and foes. jonathan: manus cranny, appreciate that. tiktok. the tantrum did not last too long over the weekend. annmarie joins us from washington, d.c. to explain what happens next. as the president indicated what he will do and how much longer we have to wait until we get some kind of resolution? annmarie: trump was able to give tiktok this lifeline in the executive order. talked about a 75 day reprieve. there's a lot of concern that does this make sense and in accordance with the law? under the law, the only way you have this reprieve is if actually bytedance was making significant progress to work with a buyer. what president trump talked about was he wants to make sure when he says tiktok stays 50% owned by america, he said everyone who is rich is calling him. my mind went to jeff yass, a

massive investor in the social media company. or, someone like elon musk or mark zuckerberg or kevin o'leary who would want to buy and get a part of the deal. take a listen how president trump described what he sees for tiktok and its future. president trump: i think he was should be entitled to get half of tiktok and congratulations. that would be worth $500 billion or something. the numbers are crazy. it is worthless and i don't -- if the president doesn't sign, then it's worthless. so many products made in china and nobody complained. dealing one who complained with tiktok. tiktok is largely -- they have a warm spot for tiktok that i did not have originally. annmarie: that is for sure. he has a warm spot now. he was talking about how he wants to save this sucker because it helped him connect

with younger voters ahead of the election. at the same time there are a lot of hawks surrounding president trump, like michael waltz, like the new secretary of state who had this bipartisan support last night. marco rubio. hawks when it comes to tiktok. what they say is they have no problem with tiktok remaining a social media app as long as it is divested and doesn't have the control of the chinese common's party. -- communist party. jonathan: the mood has changed, that's for sure. we have the perfect guests to discuss this is mitchell green, the founder and managing partner of lead as capital, also an investor in bytedance. thank you for dropping by. mitchell: i'm not sure i am perfect. jonathan: perfect for us to have this conversation. i would like to know from your perspective what you like to see

happen here over the next few months. mitchell: we need to see -- stepping back. bytedance has built a company that is a chinese business that is truly global. a lot of people failed to realize that. to understand the importance of national pride to the chinese. the chinese have always wanted to build a company that was the nike sold in 150 countries around the world. you can buy john deere tractors in 75 countries. alibaba was not that. tencent was not that. for us to assume that the chinese government is just going to roll over and let americans own half, 75% of one of the crown jewels, it's a difficult thing. i can't claim on friends with xi or trump.

it's a game of hot potato. we want to see some resolution worked out. what happens in the u.s. needs to be worked out before the global company can ipo at some point. we shall see what happens. six month ago, i probably thought they would just pull out and the chinese would never let them do it. we might see a deal where now they spin it in some minority stake. i don't think some billionaires get to buy it for cheap. jonathan: you understand where the questions come from one we use language like the chinese government will not allow them to. apparently, it is not a national asset. he would attend the complication -- you understand the struggle? a him invested in putting national pride before me is a shareholder. are you disappointed they didn't look to find a buyer?

mitchell: not yet. what do you think the u.s. government was say if china told apple, i'm sorry, you don't get the sell. they said it's a meta. apple still is. microsoft still is. i think it is good -- bad for both countries if we do not work it out. they need to figure it out. you might see a minority type deal. a spin would be absolutely incredible. that would be the dream. for the price we bought it over the last year, practically getting the thing for free. what would a strategic -- if the government would allow it, what if an amazon or microsoft or google or facebook page on tiktok? -- pay to own tiktok? i think it's important for the audience to understand the following.

it is not that much of their overall business. 90% plus of bytedance's business is in america. annmarie: if -- lisa: if people sell bytedance shares on the potential of regulation or spinoff or a question about operating the u.s., selling or buying? mitchell: we have been buying. our base case is it is shut down in the u.s. buying stock at the price today is the think it's shut down. if her some reason it doesn't and it stays or gets spinoff, that's a huge win for us. lisa: what should be done given the fact you are an investor in social media companies? you have strong feelings about the regulatory regime around social media companies in the u.s. mitchell: it should be regulated, 100%. can china, bytedance is a highly regulated -- more regulated than

the u.s. but there's a reason on bloomberg tv or cnbc or fox or any cable television we cannot sit and swear it on television and have an appropriate content. what is incredible and insane as the same regulation does not exist for social media. it should happen faster. i hope i speak for a huge millions of parents. social media in a wood which is like the demise of western society. funny enough, bytedance actually 90% of revenue comes from a region where it is regulated. lisa: an important question for a lot of people here at davos where they talk about we can't wait for businesses to explode. for five years ago they talked about the demise of western civilization with the incoming of donald trump. how do you as an investor strip out should from this is going to

make money and we want to invest here and you benefit? mitchell: that doesn't mean i can't be an investor in the company and try to talk to people in the government about ways to potentially regulate it. you want to regulate social media in the u.s. talk to the people who run the biggest companies. i think it is coming. there's been a lot of research written. authors speaking here. a lot of very good research on not just social media. it is all technology and teenagers. there are things in china, some of the policies in china as a relates to regulation of some content. some would be good to have in america. jonathan: if it does get banned, what replaces it and the investment opportunities? would you rethink the investment

if you knew we would be will be our? -- where we are? mitchell: we have bought shares of bytedance. our base case is shut down or banned. what is ago? you just -- where does it go? you just how facebook is trying to release new product to compete. in india, when it was banned, there has been no competitor that has emerged that has taken over. lisa: how much do you look at who was at the inauguration to decide which company to invest in? mitchell: dana white joined the board of facebook. as we were talking about the trump administration -- we are not political experts at all. what i realized is, if you do the opposite of the crowd -- the crowd is usually wrong.

if you talk to hedge fund managers about where the stock market is going, nine says one thing and one says the other. did tend to goes where the one says. -- it tends to go where one says. i'm sure it will be a fun four years for bloomberg and the new york times and everyone else. you will have lots to talk about. jonathan: it's been a fun 24 hours. thank you for your time. mitchell green of lead as capital. here is dani burger. dani: president trump has begun the process of withdrawing from the u.s. -- paris climate agreement. it will take a year to go into effect. it signals his commitment to reveille overhaul of u.s. energy and climate policy. the move not entirely unexpected. trump pulled the u.s. from the pact in his first term.

vivek ramaswamy has stepped down from coal leading president donald trump's department of government efficiency with elon musk. he is planning to run for ohio governor. current governor selected is lieutenant governor to replace jd vance in the senate. that if one of the possibility for ramaswamy to seek the governor's in 2026. a union representing thousands of costco employees has voted to authorize a strike ahead of a january 31 contract deadline. 85% of their 18,000 nationwide members voted to approve the strike which could impact daily operations at the big box retailer. the union says the company failed to present a fair contract that reflects the company's record-breaking profits. that is your bloomberg brie. jonathan: thank you. more from dani and 30 minutes.

investing in economic growth. >> i think we are in a period where rates look attractive versus where equities are. we are in a period where we are the place of economic growth but it is a warning sign for the administration about how much they can push. ♪

jonathan: live from davos, welcome back to the program. equity markets kicking off after a long weekend. i'm not sure how many of you had a long weekend if you're in the market. you are probably glued to things happening elsewhere. futures up by one third of percent on the s&p. it is the moves in foreign-exchange, the weakness

in the mexican peso. dollar-mex up. the loony. it has whipsawed for the last 12 to 24 hours. lisa: this was expected. why are people trading on things that are so flimsy? at what point is this offering people a chance to fade as we wait for the next headline in a couple of hours time? jonathan: joining us now is steve tananbaum, founder of golden tree asset management. steve: great to be back. jonathan: i listened to your comments where you said it might be more bark than bite. maybe people are getting over their skis just a touch. what are you expecting? steve: it has been a lot of enthusiasm, a lot of hope and it is great. prospects look like they were accelerating and improving in valuations. my guess is it will not be a

one-way train. a one-way trip. we will likely get a pause. what is that mean six months to a year from now? if you look at the reagan analogy, there was a lot of hope built up. the first year was tougher, but then it built on that and it was a very good experience. there's no reason to think you can't have different environment but similar results over time. jonathan: is confidence sufficient to generate economic activity? confidence feels skyhigh. you see that in the surveys in the last few months. do you see that translating into superior economic activity? steve: absolutely. there is a can-do attitude. people feel good. lisa: davos tends to be wrong. people get together and have this conviction. then the exact opposite usually happens over the remainder of the year. i keep that in mind when the conviction seems to be american exceptionalism, growth will go gangbusters, and a huge fly in

the ointment which is the debt market and what rates are saying. how much does that worry you? steve: great question. will we get that because the market is hoping? a lot of valuations assume rates have a downward bias, and they don't, and they have an upward or flat bias will that hurt valuations? if you look at nominal growth rates, 5%, nominal is inflation plus real. if real is a higher percentage, that's a good thing. there will be room to cut. if it is about the same or there is more inflation and that nominal number as a percentage of the total, it is going to be a pause and that is not good for the markets. lisa: our credit markets and high-yield markets -- are credit markets and high-yield markets leveraged the growth and potential cuts? steve: you are leading the witness. [laughter] lisa: carry-on.

please answer. steve: as long as the market is constructive about growth, valuations make sense. if there is volatility on inflation accelerating, concerned you will not have cuts, and interest rate spike or pause, that will be different. some of the outliers like the tariff conversation i am less concerned about today. lisa: how much are you starting to look outside the u.s. because of the valuation story? we keep hearing about europe. we are here but also investing. steve: one interesting thing about europe is the real rates are lower than compared to the u.s. if you look at germany, there is low jetta ddp -- debt to gdp. the 20-year rates are under one. you can make a case for that. i do think a good case. when you look at france where it seems like they have worse flux

ability -- flexibility, less on defense, less entitlement, less growth, and the 20-year rates are in the mid one still low ones. the u.s. is in the mid-twos. it doesn't seem right. i feel as if when you look at the mario draghi report, there are reports. there is self-help if they choose to do it. jonathan: how much needs to go right to generate bigger deterrence out of europe? expectations are exceptionally low. we have seen one earnings report in the last week with a decent earnings report. the stock up 50%, 20% just like that -- 15%, 20% just like that. steve: he singled out telecom. they used to very much encourage competition. you cannot reinvest in the

properties in the systems. as a result, the investments -- the companies sold for the multiples. you take something like vodafone. if consolidation occurs that allowed the investment on their systems to have appropriate returns, the valuations could be up 50% to 100%. looking at something like germany and vodafone, if that stabilized and you believe there is a good investment, that can be very attractive. lisa: last year you sold your crypto business. crypto has gone crazy. do you regret it? steve: not at all. it's in a better home. we have done some things that had been crypto related. the firm republic that we sold it to was a more appropriate home for it. as an interesting space. i'm not so sure if the valuations justify the fundamentals today but the

fundamental's are very strong. jonathan: how do you value those companies? what are the valuations of them? traditional investor say i can't have tolerance to invest in something of a don't know why it goes up or down from week to week. steve: i try to focus on what i can. there is enough of that to worry about what i can't. there is very much a concept. you could have said that about the internet in 2000. it is a concept. some will be realized and somewhat be. jonathan: always good to hear from you. steve tananbaum. the thoughts on europe are really, really important. slightly contrarian because everyone was downbeat on europe coming into the year. to transform the lives of europeans you need big changes. to generate excessive returns in the european assets, only a little needs to go right. some incremental change and you can see some big changes and big moves in financial markets.

lisa: does a lot of capital that's getting nervous about the elevated valuations and the price to perfection narrative in the united states, to the extent the european union could benefit from that. a lot of people are taking notice will jonathan: coming up, the third hour just on the corner. catching up with gary cohn, andrew forrest, david rubenstein and antonio neri. all that coming up from davos, switzerland, and the world economic forum. you are watching bloomberg tv. ♪

>> the golden age of america begins now. today i will sign a series of historic executive orders. with these actions we will begin the complete restoration of america and the revolution of common sense. i will declare a national emergency at our southern border. the inflation caught -- crisis

was caused with massive overspending and escalating energy prices. that is why today i will also declare a national energy emergency. my proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. >> this is bloomberg surveillance live from davos with jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the new president promising a golden age for the united states of america and we said this earlier. what we have had so far is a golden age of volatility in foreign exchange whipsawed by trade headlines. lisa: will they or won't they with tariffs? that has been a story for so many people. it is unabashedly that they will and they will make it good for us. that has been the tone for dabo's listening and responding to everything we are hearing. jonathan: the banks are fired up. citi started the program really looking to the year ahead.

m&a and what this economy can bring. we heard from j.p. morgan sitting down. and at the world economic forum saying the same thing, it is go time in the united states. i am not sure how the rest of the world feels about this and if europe and kind of dust europe and china can feel confident. maybe we are getting too excited about what people were talking about yesterday with the incoming president taking a measured approach which lasted about six hours. lisa: right now we have to tamper with the idea that usually the zeitgeist tends to be proven then less than correct or not necessarily correct 50% of the time. there is a point about how much this translates to the rest of the world with u.s. companies with the citi head of banking looking outside of the u.s. to do acquisitions because of the strong dollar or investors seeing price to perfection shifting into other places. is the dynamism going to leave the u.s. into other pastors?

jonathan: anne-marie skipped this event for good reason, the inauguration. there is a new day, the start of february. february 1 and what might change for global trade. annmarie: potentially, that is when we could see tariffs that donald trump has been talking about for months and actually years take shape. notably yesterday when he was talking to reporters about what he is looking at he talked about mexico and canada. this is twofold. we know that they want more of a study when it comes to specifically what they are doing with china and the fact that he was invited to china and he wants to get on a phone or have a meeting with xi jinping. when it comes to canada or mexico this is the broader approach to focusing on immigration and fentanyl. he specifically spoke about fentanyl coming into the country yesterday. we could see tariffs as high as 25% going towards canada and

mexico where this is a negotiating tool. remember what happens next year, usmca, the trifecta trade deal between mexico, canada and the united states is up for renegotiation. already we see these countries starting to plan for what is to come down the pipe from this trump administration looking towards going on in mexico this morning. they came out with a decree wanting companies to come back, plan mexico, having incentives to produce and mexico. so mexico itself would be less reliance on chinese goods which works the -- irks the trump administration. a kind of a leaky border when it comes to the united states. jonathan: we appreciate the update. joining us is the ibm vice-chairman and former national economic council director of donald trump. good to see it all. we mentioned this the last time

we caught up, how different things might be this time around. what are you hearing in switzerland? how different are things this time around compared to years gone by? >> i started out with the premise that lisa was making, i take davos with a grain of salt. you have a lot of different opinions and it is the start of the new year and everyone likes to be excited. we went through an inauguration and change of power in the united states and we know that is fairly positive for business, on the fundamental level. it is pro-business and a smart regulatory environment so everyone is thinking that is good for business. hopefully we will have to see what the year brings because there is still more unknowns than nones. jonathan: when you were last in the ministration the focus was on taxes and they spent the best part of the year trying to work it out and then things shifted towards trade. there is a sense that we could do everything all at once. how difficult is it to do everything all at once? gary: i am not in washington and

i cannot speak for them. doing taxes by itself will be quite difficult. there are a lot of different constituencies when it comes to doing taxes. and look, there are smart about -- small margins of victories. you have two or three and today it might be one or two seeing majority in the house. and within that house you have certain members that want certain things about freight tax bill. you have people who are deficit hawks so they do not want to see it go up. you have other members that want to bring back as much as the state and local tax deduction, the salts deduction. you have other members that want to extend everything. and then you have those who not only want to extend what is there, and all of the additional things that were talked about on the campaign trail. all of those things have a price tag associated. it is four to five to 6 trillion

and you try to balance those with those who do not want a deficit and ultimately something has to be worked out. remember the only thing that really has to change is the personal side of the equation. that does not mean that you will not touch the corporate side, because to make this all work they will have to balance it. it is a balancing act. you will need revenue from certain places to give it in other places. jonathan: each congressional -- lisa: each congressional member has their own power because of the thin margins. it is a one-man show when it comes to tariffs. are you surprised that we did not see more aggressive tariffs lamented or announced other than what we heard about from mexico and canada? gary: i am not surprised. even when i was there eight years ago there was always a heavy debate on tariffs. on the positives and the negatives of tariffs and the intended and unintended consequences. it is day one of a four year

administration. you do not have to put tariffs on day one. i am sure that there is an enormous amount to debate in the white house as there was in the transition on what to do with tariffs and where to put tariffs and where they could be helpful and hurtful. there are places where there is universal agreement that we should tariffs and other places where there is divided opinion and people where -- in places where people think there should not be tariffs. lisa: everyone is excited about the good and not considering the potential inflationary component or the rate rise that could accompany this or the potential slowdown from an increase in the price of goods at a time when spending power has been coming down. are you trying to tell corporate executives that you meet with others maybe temper your enthusiasm? gary: i am not trying to tell them anything. everyone his eyes wide open and has a good view of what is going on in washington.

the one thing about the trump administration is that they are very transparent and they had enormous access. the corporate community has access and has been involved. the trump administration wants to hear from the corporate community. no one needs to tell the corporate community to slow down and what people are starting to understand is what are the intended and unintended consequences. we have seen a higher rate environment. we are talking about an environment where we might get cuts and a steeper and steeper yield curve. i think the realization that the covid financing is when five-year financing comes to and there is a big maturity walk and a lot of deals in the pipeline. if you look back in the vintage years of 2010 on in the venture world and private equity world there has been very little to no liquidity out of 2010 vintage on. there are a lot of investors especially pensions and endowments looking for return of capital from the vintage years.

there is a lot of pressure in the system to do transaction to get deals done. we all feel that and know that and it would be great to get it done. there is a realism that not all of it can get done at the same time and we will have to see what the markets compare. and we have all of this with very tight credit spreads and high multiples. jonathan: you said it repeatedly that there is a lot a paper that needs to be moved. there was a moment in the hearing with scott bessent where he was asked about scrapping the debt ceiling. the debt limit. and he said something and senator warren did not let him speak. he wanted to serve a market participants. what i sense about where he wanted -- where he was going is he wanted to see how market participants would respond to the headline. you have been in the administration and you know the business. what would you be telling scott bessent about how that headline would be absorbed in financial markets and are you are

concerned -- and are you concerned about pushback to the plans? gary: you will. the market is getting to a point now where they are telling you we are more concerned about the debt and deficit today they had we have been in a wild. and i think there are a few factors. the debt as it gets bigger but we are getting closer and closer to that social security sort of tipping point. and they work together. we all know that the social security trust fund will be unable to find itself in a matter of years. 5, 6, 7, 4, somewhere in there. we are somewhat confident that no one will cut social security payments. there is no member of congress that will cut that and north should they. not only do you take the pre-existing debt that you have in the debt that we will build by running this government and have a new source of additional debt called social security that you will have to fund. you put those things together and look at what the government

is going to need to borrow in the near future and it is a fairly large number and the quarterly rollovers are going to start getting staggering. add to that that the prior administration did not really elongate the maturities on the debt. they were very -- they were using a short data maturity system which i understand when we had low rates. we are going to have to deal with the problem that we really know -- we never really put duration. we have to roll the duration of the pre-existing debt out and we have to add the new debt that we will create and then be prepared for social security. jonathan: if we turned down the debt right now and you are fantastic about this. the front end of the curve is pricing of the funds. the curve is 40 to 50 basis points deep. historically, that is not that much. i do not see any sign that we are freaking out about the fiscal deficit even before you do all the things we talked about. gary: i think it is a good

opportunity. we have a 40 point inverted yield curve and historically we have a positive yield curve. we still need to continue to elongate are maturities in the united states. jonathan: do you think we have the space to do that. it is about 40 basis points deep. gary: you are right. you -- we do need it to do it at 40 basis points. it is the right place to go. jonathan: your message the people that did not live a steep yield curve and think at the moment that this might be at. what is your message to them? gary: my messages to look at history. if you look at history, the 100 year tenure rate is over 4%. if you look at the steepness of the yield curve we have always had 100 to 150 basis points of steepness in the curve. if you look at fed funds and outs. we are still in a relatively flat curve. jonathan: we appreciate your

time. gary cohen goes for the economic national council director and head of goldman sachs as well. it is go to the bloomberg brief. dani: a cease-fire in the gaza war has entered its third days. hamas released three hostages on sunday. israel released 90 palestinian prisoners on monday. hundreds of a trucks have been cleared to enter the area. the qatar foreign ministry so -- spokesperson says it is working on the second phase of a cease-fire and aims to complete it. a new fact sheet has called for federal agencies to address currency manipulation. it has yet to be made public but a copy seen by bloomberg details the president's desire to address unfair trade. japan, china, germany and singapore are on the monitoring list for currency practicing is practices. a cold blast is threatening to bring record snowfall to new orleans and houston.

extreme cold mornings are in effect from north dakota to west texas. frigid temperatures are causing concern about natural gas output and the grid. texas has a weather watch in play at session place and say that the demand might test the record set last january. that is your brief. jonathan: thank you. more from her in about 30 minutes. next, a focus on global growth. >> with the valuations currently in the united states, there comes responsibility because companies and boards have to say for this valuation i want to show growth. it is organically or coming through acquisitions. ♪

what does a good investment opportunity look like? at t. rowe price we let curiosity light the way. asking smart questions about opportunities like clean water. and what promising new treatment advances can make a new tomorrow possible. better questions. better outcomes. jonathan: live from davos,

switzerland at the world economic forum it is day one for bloomberg surveillance even though it is day two at the world economic forum it does not matter because it is day two for the president of the united states and he has shaken up financial markets. equity futures posited by .4%. in the bond market yields are lower down five basis points to 4.5743. the euro is negative by point 1%. and negative to the dollar. the weakness we are seeing beyond his about the canadian and mexican currencies off of the back of these headlines. lisa: basically how much do you see a weakening in the mexican and canadian governments or economies on the heels of a 25% tariff that is being implemented february 1. how do you decipher the signal from the noise given that we will be hearing a lot of noise in the next couple of weeks. lisa: that it was the --

jonathan: that was a challenge of the first term and it will be a challenge on the second term as well. vis: with the valuations in the united states comes responsibility because companies and boards have to say from this valuation i will show growth either organically or through acquisitions. so the minute the growth is not forthcoming they vote with their feet. you will either have to grow organically or by and build. jonathan: just to build on that. the argument he was making off of the back of that story is the amount of available credit first -- that some of these companies have, particularly u.s. companies to look abroad with the support of a strong u.s. dollar have to go on a shopping spree. lisa: when it is cheap to go on vacation in europe imagine a company, it is a similar dynamic. jonathan: diff -- just different from what you and i spend.

very similar aside from the mats. manus: some stocks to focus in on but it is apple that takes the headlines. jeffries downgrading the stock to underperforming. expect upcoming results to miss estimates due to weak iphone sales. next up capital downgrades apple to a hold pointing to a material reduction in iphone demand. jp morgan coming in with the final knife, the company stock price just $260 saying that the shares' loss of market asset -- market share is likely to continue. very worried. jonathan: thank you. we appreciate it. some of the morning calls going into the opening bell a little more than an hour away. joining us now is andrew forrest the executive chairman and founder of force group. good to see you and thank you for dropping by. i want to talk about the lead up

to this event. there has been what many people are describing as a vibe shift. certain companies are rolling back di initiatives and some people are looking away from esg and net zero initiatives. you have strong thoughts on all of this. you do not think we should be pulling back but we should be going further. describe your stance on those issues. andrew: very happily. i think that zero is interesting and very hard to build against. i do not see a lot of merit in drill, baby, drill. i see a lot of merit in build, baby, build. now, if you want to finance something i am sure that president trump would agree you have to measure it. what you can measure is simply stopping the burning of fossil fuels and put all that money in the bank. thanks will lend against those savings and there is a financial model to stop the burning of fossil fuels. it does not go well that it

cannot parlay ends out of washington, d.c.. but i am a global business person. i have to grow projects and raise capital. this will stop the burning of fossil fuels i-20 40. i do not care what it gets called. you would say that, but you are commentator on tv. sit in my shoes. we will drop one billion liters of diesel out of our supply chains this decade. and we will make money out of that. i would not call it unrealistic. jonathan: it might be a realistic for your firm but unrealistic for the planet? andrew: what is unrealistic is this one emergency that the president to declare and this is the one you put your finger on. the claimant emergency. what is unrealistic for the planet that we keep earning fossil fuel and pretend that the climate does not exist and i am not wearing a coat in the last time i was here the snow just smashed off the roof. this is a difference in climate

that we are seeing. and for years you will not see much but your kids will see it and your grandkids will see it and it is time to move. lisa: as someone who is actually running a business you pushed back your goal of pushing 50 million tons of green hydrogen because it is so expensive. how do you dovetail the idea of how expensive david -- it is to finance the projects that could save the world but are not realistic in the current financial environment? andrew: only a short span of history, oil was $1600 a barrel when it got going. hydrogen is nothing like that. there is a new form of hydrogen that will come on in the market which will be a lot cheaper. we are not in a position where we want to talk about it publicly but if people walk away

completely we are not walking away from producing it. our customers are saying they want to buy it or why. germany, france or south korea if you want to buy it at all. we are there. but, just not tomorrow. there has been a lot of -- andrew: that is a really great question. for us we all live a short time on earth and we want to make the biggest difference and that is through -- just come on down to western australia and we will show you these trucks running on fossil fuel. but that said, the best thing is to stop using fossil to make iron ore and going to make green steel. we are putting to china that the smog you see over china and any another nations is generated

from the steel industry. if they can bring in green metal and out on the cake mix of nickel and lithium, those guys will go blue. so we are introducing policies to any city who wants it. blue and green said aids and that is simply buying green -- lou skies and green ski -- steel. you do not have to burn ore, and we send in the metal. jonathan: i feel like we have fallen out. i am just a journalist asking questions. a lot of people look at the shift and say zero tailpipe emissions but they are serious negative externalities in the production protest. from eight national security perspective people say it makes us more dependent on china. from a societal perspective there countries across europe where consumers cannot afford their energy bills and there has been a real reality check for the likes of the germans who

were dependent on cheap gas from the russians and found themselves in a situation where they are burning coal again. that is a realistic view of the last 12 months or year. that is a challenge. lisa: that is geopolitics mixed with some of the externalities. jonathan: we need more time. i am hitting a break and i have to go. tv commentator with andrew forrest. i am offended. i am so offended. we have a break. we should do a longer show together. ♪

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jonathan: the opening bell is about 60 minutes away after a long weekend of following the biggest week of gain going all the way back to early november. that is get you some new -- some movers. manus: let us expand those morning calls around apple. this is about questioning your dominance in china when your sales fall by 18%. you are relinquishing dominance to huawei. that is about product proposition in terms of ai and facet. jp morgan downs great -- downgrades the price and they talk about limited traction on ai. what are you and i prepared to pay for access to ai. the stock down 2%. they are sales are up 15.5%. until, in a lineup behind donald

trump. you saw bezos, cook but you do not see the ceo of intel. is this a bid proposition? 3m, think about g in a modern -- gen modern conference. margins were lighter but bill brown is transforming this company with cross cuts in productivity and talking about how will we handle trump tariffs. they expert $4 billion in import $1.7 billion so it is about dexterity within the domestic supply chain and ability to deliver to the home market. as well as, adjusting the dial to those imports. jonathan: we appreciate it and good morning. i think we are running for good morning even though it is the afternoon in switzerland. lisa: you think that it is our collective decision? hold on a second. why don't you say good morning

and i will say good afternoon. jonathan: just confuse everyone. it is 1:30 in switzerland, good morning. in washington it is 8:31. good morning. annmarie: definitely good morning because washington, d.c. has become the center of the world and it will be a busy one again today. day two of trump 2.0. we will see republican congressional leaders making their way over to the white house and what is key is going to the meetings. that president trump has with speaker of the house mike johnson who has one of the slimmest majorities we have seen the republicans have. and then of course john thune. what will da be is how will they would not -- how will they enact trump's agenda. i would also note that the world economic forum has put a special address from president trump on the schedule for thursday at 5:00 p.m. your time and 11:00 here in washington, d.c.. i imagine it will sound

something like a grievance list from president trump telling the world's globally leak where they have made to said -- mistakes when that is defense paid spending or places like germany and their reliance on russian gas or oil or potentially trying to school them in some of the trade realignments we have seen when it comes to china dumping on markets. on friday, trump will make his way to the other side of the coast touring los angeles that is still dealing with these wildfires. absolutely devastating what is going on in california. jonathan: that -- lisa: that is certainly addressing -- that is certainly top of mind for people here. you're talking about the tension of those who have stayed in washington, d.c. and those who have come to davos to make deals. can you talk to the presence in washington, d.c. of corporate america and how big it is and why it is there?

annmarie: some of the very special individuals potentially attended the inauguration and then got on private jets and went over to davos and telling all of their friends what they learned if they were in the rotunda. what was so fascinating yesterday was that you had tech ceos with better seats than some members of his own administration and incoming cabinet secretaries and members of congress. you could really see the balance of power has shifted especially this time around for trump. this has been more of a homecoming and welcoming. even president biden said when he arrived at the white house before they made their way to capitol hill, welcome home. when it comes to the tech executives you want to make sure that you have your of the president. we saw this during the first round of trump's administration. how important that personal relationship was for tim cook of apple when he talked about tim cook would call him and say this

is why a potentially need your help with something. this week donald trump told a rally before he was inaugurated that he had a conversation with tim cook and he wants to invest more in the united states. you can look at this with a little bit of cynicism of course, these tech titans want to have that proximity of power and they have seen how helpful that has been to the stock of tesla with elon musk becoming the first body and getting a white house email address. also, a little bit more strategically, this is potentially a president that wants to create national champions to make sure that the u.s. has the right companies in place especially combating adversaries in china. jonathan: thank you. joining us here is david rubenstein the cofounder and co. chairman of the carlyle group. thank you for joining us. we caught up with someone you

know well, mr. freeman. someone you have spoken to and he said the inauguration felt like a commercial for all of the best of united states of america, all of the ceos from the biggest tech firms. joe biden said something different. he said an oligarchy is taking shape. how do you see things? david: i do not want to say either person is right. jonathan: you know both of them. david: clearly there are a lot of technology people involved with donald trump and they were very visible at the inauguration. you could see the most visible people at the inauguration behind the president when he was being sworn in for the tech ceos. the finance ceos must been in wall street doing deals or were in davos. they were not there. there is no doubt that businesspeople have become important in the american economy because of technology and there is no doubt about it. this is true for president biden and president trump. the technology companies are not

only dominant in the united states but the world. so anywhere in the world, can you get through the day without using american tech knowledge? almost everyone in the world is using amazon or apple or facebook or google. and european technologies are not like that and the asian technology with the exception of tiktok is not really prevalent. american technology leaders have become important business leaders not only in the united states but around the world. they have become folk heroes in some way. people who've started these companies, bill gates, mark zuckerberg among others in the late steve jobs, they are people larger-than-life figures and i am not surprised that president trump want to involve the and president biden did lead with them as well. jonathan: mark zuckerberg said that he found the european regulators were going after the u.s. tech firms in the u.s. administration was giving the europeans cover to do that. do you sense a shift where we

are celebrating our national champions in a way we have not done over the last four years? david: i think all presidents want to celebrate american technology and i am not sure what he is referring to exactly so i cannot comment on that. when you have american technology companies that are dominant and google had problems in europe and you expect the europeans to regulate because they are not happy that european companies are dominating their technology. europe and france invented the internet. they had the internet before we did but they lost a. as a result, think of a european technology that you need to get through the day? virtually none of them. i am not upset -- i'm not surprised that europe is upset about it. jonathan: rolex. david: if you want to have a great summer vacation there is no place better the world then mediterranean or europe and the museums are great and the food is great and the people are friendly. if you want to build a great

technology company, many of the great leaders are moving to the united states from india or europe. lisa: there is a larger question about how much we have priced in the u.s. market divorcing from china at a time when it seems like maybe that is not exactly donald trump's plan. i wonder if that might be the surprise and a shift towards a more amenable approach than currently expected. david: i cannot speak for donald trump and he changes his mind. he is a very transaction oriented person. he would not be as ideological as transaction oriented. if he can get a deal with the chinese, he will do that. i have read that he wants to move there and get there quickly and have a meeting with xi jinping and that would be a good idea. i think it is too early to say whether china will go down in the united states will go up whether it will be large tariffs. i think the secretary of the treasury said and does designate

that the tariff policy is maximalist which is to say it is to be used in negotiating positions. i suspect that is what donald trump does and his people negotiate and have the threat of tariffs. lisa: the reason why ask is that we are trying to figure out signal from noise and the tiktok ban that was delayed for 75 days, there is a signal that maybe there is not much of a concern of the national security concerns surrounding a property like this at least in donald trump's mind, and that could open the door between more negotiating between the u.s. and china in a lot of way and more businesses had backtracked from. how much are you hearing them look at potential opportunities with china given that maybe that caught overestimated? david: the national security information and concerns, i do not have access to what they saw so i cannot comment on that. donald trump is interested in that security but he might have

some way to deal with that if you have an american presence or ownership in the company. we will have to wait and see. it more -- it might take more than 90 days to get the business deals done, but the fact that tiktok got the attention of the president of the united states in a way that many people would not have expected shows that this is some technology that has a lot of popularity, inc. about 170 million users. lisa: right now the takeaway has been optimism. this whole dealmaking search that we were expecting, do you think that is overplayed or validated in the numbers? david: the optimism is here, but whether it is merited, i do not know yet. many business people feel that there is a opportunity to get regulatory burdens moved -- removed and get them that they do not have antitrust concerns. that is the feeling of some business society and that is

fueling a lot of the optimism. jonathan: it is that you're feeling? david: it is a different environment. there are some things done in the previous administration and some things that i would not have agreed with and we will see what the administration will do. the important thing is that we have only had a president in a second term non-consecutively once before, grover cleveland. and when you have second terms for presidents sometimes in the second terms i get tired and make mistakes. reagan's second term was not perfect, nixon had to leave. maybe the second term the president and people get tired. maybe you have a president who has served and know something about the job and has some chance to think about it and comes back with fresh people, may be nonconsecutive second term will talk -- will produce good results. jonathan: we will see and catch up soon. thank you for your time. david rubenstein of the carlyle group.

plenty of stories with equity futures up by .4%. with the bloomberg brief let us cross over to dani burger. dani: shares of goldman sachs are falling in the premarket trade down 1.2%. the bank is preparing to promote a slate of executives to run its executive units. the plans will spotlight the firm's next generation of leadership, giving them the reins of the biggest gold street businesses. the blank -- the bank tends to name two newco heads with richard stepping down to become vice chairman. jpmorgan chase is setting up its own more room to analyze the impact of early trauma policy shifts. the asset and wealth management ceo telling a davos panel that the war room is already in action after president trump signed several executive orders. the trump administration is positioning itself as "very pro-business" and that the u.s.

economy is in go mode. apple iphone sales in china plunged more than 18% during the december quarter. shares are off of the premarket trade. it relinquished the number one spot to huawei tech with an uneven debut of its ai upgrades. the drop drove a global slump of 5% in the holiday sales. apple will report its full results on january 30. that is your brief. jonathan: thank you. that is the earnings report to watch, what is going on with apple and looking forward to the commentary. and what is not just happening with the iphone sales. what is happening in china? this is tim cook the diplomat celebrated about how he navigated the tariff story. how different are things going to be in trump volume two for that particular leader. lisa: it is not just trump versus xi versus ai advancement were not sold in china and the

fact you are seeing real declines in that region. jonathan: up next, navigating uncertainty. >> we went through inauguration and a change of power in the united states. we will have to see what the year brings because there are more unknowns that knowns at this point. ♪

jonathan: the opening bell 42 minutes away and equity futures decent. positive on the s&p and nasdaq and russell. russell had a great week, one of the best week of the year so far. the best week going back to early november. a few reasons for that. cpi and ppi dovish going into a

trump administration where we are trying to figure out what will happen with taxes, trade, and immigration. it is hard to get a real signal with what you have heard. lisa: cpi and ppi came in so disappointment -- so disappointing to the bond market and any game had more to do with that they onset policies. that volatility in policy proposals will be vast and frequent. jonathan: ppi feels like a lifetime ago have been what we will confront and the changes we are expecting. surveillance is navigating uncertainty. >> i always take davos with a grain of salt because you have lots of different opinions and it is always a start of a new year and everyone likes to be excited and bold. we went through inauguration and change of power the united states and we know that is fairly positive for business. i think we will see what the year brings because there is still more unknowns and knowns

in the equation at this point. jonathan: it is fair to say that the boat might be loaded too far to one side at the moment going into 2025? jonathan: i think a lot of people -- lisa: i think a lot of people are thinking not. we can wrap up the coverage with the hp enterprise ceo. antonio, it is good to see you. we have spent the last few months or so talking about mergers and acquisitions and we have bankers saying it will be easier and we are expecting a boom. you have been living it for the last year or so with juniper networks. can we start. approved by the u.k. and e.u. regulator, and so why is it been so difficult to get past the united states? antonio: we are still on the original process and timelines. last year i missed davos because i was doing the announcement. we expected the deal to close between the end of calendar 2024 or early calendar 2025.

we have had a very collaborative and productive process with the u.s. antitrust division, and we now expect the transition of the administration to reengage in the conversation. but nothing has shown why this deal will not get through. because it is much more of an alternative solution for the networking aspects of what they do. at the same time it is good for national security and the contexts of the united should -- of the united states and it makes us stronger. i am very optimistic but we have to go to the process. lisa: are you ready to start gauging or thinking about another deal where has this settled your appetite? antonio: we have been execution -- executing a very secure strategy when you think about the progress we have had. almost seven years -- for almost 70 years we have innovated and we understand now that the world is hybrid and we are taking

advantage of ai which hp is the longest -- largest vendor and it comes to supercomputer power. we power most of the supercomputers around the globe, in fact. the top three are hewlett-packard enterprise systems. at the same time we think about what is working because fundamentally the core infrastructure is the network. lisa: you have some high-profile clients that might be worth more than others when it comes to publicity or drawing attention. elon musk entered into a contract with his x platform with hpe for ai accelerating servers. i am wondering if that is annexed -- if that is an extra vote of confidence? antonio: we have not talked about what customers and we do not because of confidentiality. i will say that a lot of the customers come to us because of the unique heritage and

expertise that we have building large systems to scale. the reason why it is important is because it is not just the power of the performance but also the ability to do it in a sustainable way. when i think about these deployments you need to think about electrical consumption, the economy and how you are running the system. that is why in october we announce the first ever industry first of directly cooling technology which is what people talk about witches liquid cooling for the gpu. we cooled the entire system with liquids. if you look at the old system which is the testaments of the united states working with us, it is the fastest and largest supercomputer which is 100% liquid cool. when you work in that data center it is no fans. jonathan: you think we can reduce the associated energy costs with us when times go by? antonio: we have shown when you go from air to liquid we can reduce energy consumption by

90%. obviously we have improve the performance dramatically and we reduce the space by 50%. why is that because the entire system is well utilized and there is no need to leave holes in spaces to air cool. when you think about it when you burn a finger right?, you do not blow it you just put it under water that is the most official -- efficient way to cool injuries. lisa: one theme has been this incredible optimism and companies ready to deploy cash. i wonder if it has taken on a realistic tone. how ready are companies to deploy immediate cash? antonio: this is why we look at three you nick -- three unique segments. we allow them to build large infrastructure to scale. and there is nothing stopping them there. and then you have the sovereign fees which here in a place like this is a topic of conversation

because you cannot be left behind in adopting ai but there are different challenges including the inclusion of culture and values. you cannot lose a country through these transitions and that you have enterprise and they have gone from exploration and -- exploration to implementation. we have 50 use cases that we have employed and now that is ramping faster. but they have the simplicity of the deployment and the use, not the actual gpu. the whole ecosystem is delivering a system easy to deploy. we deploy a system in three clicks and 30 seconds. that has to be that simple. you need to be on the loop not in the loop and that is the message. jonathan: final question, who is the heir to massey? antonio: it will be hard to find one. but i do believe and we are a big partner of fc barcelona that they have one of the talents.

jonathan: good to see you and thank you. the hp enterprise ceo. as we count you down to the opening bell i want to give you a feel for the calendar. after the closing bell we get earnings from united airlines and netflix. wednesday, travelers insurance and johnson & johnson. on thursday president trump speaks to davos and then another round of jobless claims and a boj rate decision -- rate decision. the guest lineup looks like this from j.p. morgan, dan pinto. president lynn market -- martin. richard dixon and adina freeman. and then later, we will catch up with brian moynihan in just a few minutes time. this was bloomberg surveillance. ♪

the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household,

there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways.

matt: you can threaten tariffs about the equity market does not buy it. kitty: bloomberg open interest starts right now. sonali: coming up, futures are rising and yields are falling as trump delays tariff orders for now but he says they are coming. matt: the president warns of 25% tariffs on canada and mexico. as soon as february 1 the dollar shoots higher. katie: president trump issued executive orders on the border, oil, military and federal workforce. we have all of the details and more coming up so let us dig into the markets and where there is trading. we will look at a cross asset look because