Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  January 22, 2025 12:30pm-1:01pm EST

12:30 pm
♪ >> welcome to "bloomberg markets." i'm scar will the fu. tech drive the s&p 500 to a record-high. netflix and a.i. are the catalyst. here's where things stand in terms of the levels. earnings set the s&p 500 back above its last closing high of 6090 on december 6. and clearly, it is tech leading the way with the nasdac up by 1.5%. not much movement in the treasuries space. the 10-year at 4.61%.
12:31 pm
president trump is considering a 6% on all chinese goods. let's take a deeper drive and we're going to start with netflix. as i mentioned, flying high right now. record-high after the company recorded its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history adding 18.9 million customers in the fourth quarter, more than doubled what wall street anticipated. helped by the return of "squid games" season two. and shares of oracle jumping for their biggest rise since september the software company will team up with softbank and openai forming a $100 billion joint venture. and an old economy name here, ford. the shares are down right now after barclays downgraded the automaker to equal weight from overweight citing volume
12:32 pm
headwinds in 2025. analysts say this is due to tin ven story destocking as well as continued price normalization. barclays continues a slight fourth quarter earnings. the guidance may end up disappointing. all right. let's turn to companies that will soon go public. lynn martin spoke to bloomberg at davos about what activity she sees on that front. >> we're seeing the i.p.o. market start to open up butt although last year wasn't a bad year particularly if you look at the first half of the year. got quite a few deals out. and then you have a bunch of volatility set in for cause of the election. you weren't quite sure what the outcome was going to be. so a variety of deals pushed. those deals are now getting on the road, they're making plans to i.p.o., either in the coming days and weeks or quarters or second half of the year.
12:33 pm
scarlet: now one i.p.o. on the horizon is venture global. expected to raise sentiment around the energy sector but it just slashed its hefty price gain. so tell us a little bit because we're talking about double-digit price cut here. >> this is a huge price cut, scarlet. more than 40% drop on the mid point. so we saw them bring out shares initially in the $40-46 range. so that's to the tune of about $45 billion at the top of the range. they were seeking $110 billion equity valuation. that's closer to $65 billion. how would investors receive what seemed as the new kid on the block pushing a lofty multiple. targeting valuation above chanere. that company was worth $56 billion. up 50% in the last 12 months. scarlet: what does it have over
12:34 pm
its competitors that people didn't appreciate? >> they're pushing a lot of growth. the idea that you want to buy companies that are growing and have a lot of blank space or the perception of blank space and they talked about their ain't to have some pricing power discrepancy relative their competitors and you look at this broadly speaking with president trump back the white house, there's a lot of excitement around energy, what this could mean for lng. one of the things is this idea that if there is a push for energy, these exporters are going to be winners because you need to transport it regardless of if price are higher or lower. scarlet: what does this 40% price cut ear by venture global mean for what's been a fairly optimistic outlook for i.p.o.'s in 2025? or is this very company and sector specific and we shouldn't extrapolate? >> it's close. the investors have pointed out
12:35 pm
that hey, this is an individual name that our initial reaction when we saw the cover and saw what they had been targeting in their view seemed a bit kind of ahead of what they would have expected and been wanting to pay up. but this is still very much an i.p.o. environment. that is recovering fulfill this was 2020 or 2021, the animal spirit would have been more alive closer that to initial target. now you're still seeing investors more than happy to walk away from deals that they don't see priced at a discount to what the comps are again. scarlet: it feels like we need to add an addendum to what lynn martin was saying. >> it was also a decent year but not compared to pre-pandemic because 2004 was better than 2022 and 20 scarlet: absolutely. which i.p.o.'s are you looking for to? are you anticipating in the coming weeks? >> in the coming weeks,
12:36 pm
smithfield is in the meet space there. they are expected to price early next week. that will give us a read of consumer name with a bit of agriculture flair. still waiting for some of those big tech names. scarlet: bailey covers i.p.o.'s for us. thank you so much. let's turn now to the intersection of public and private sector policy. workers will be put off work come offering the new president use his first dayses in office to take a number of actions against diversity initiatives let's bring in jeff green who covers dei for us. companies have really scaled back their dei programs. let's talk about what exactly trump has done so far to
12:37 pm
dismantle di policies not just in the private sector but in the federal government. >> he's dismantling dei and the federal government completely, getting rid of all the departments and he made some changes in gender. male and female are now the genders of the land according to the trump administration or the sexes of land. there will be no more gendering in the trump administration. that's actually until until, that was the most significant thing he did that defects cooperate america because that sort of definition leaks over into how corporations have been dealing with things like transgender and sports. transgender women in -- men in women's bathroom. but today or last night he made -- put a finer point and he said that his agency head should identify external companies where dei might being done illegally.
12:38 pm
scarlet: right. so he's definitely broadened what he had started off with which was targeting the federal government. you mentioned the word illegally. and executive order which is the actions that he has taken so far is not the same as a law. what are the current laws that govern what companies can and can't do right now? >> to get a little wonky t called title 7. it's a 1964 civil rights head applying to companies and title ix applies to sports. this is the first attempt for him to take a stab at title seven. and all title vii says is you don't discriminate. and you hire based on myrtle cannot based on race or gender. that meant you can't give white
12:39 pm
people preferential triumphant. that was what the intent was to try to help people of color. but conservative groups also say you can't discriminate against white people. scarlet: what will you be watch for specific le? >> unless they change the civil rights act of 1964 which no one seems to be calling for, it's basically redefining what is allowed and what isn't allow urn title vii which has been adjudicated quite a bit and is likely to be adjudicated more. there's a lot of cases that are coming to the supreme court eventually, potentially, that will try to redefine what is covered and what is not. and many of the people who are leading that charge are now part the trump administration. scarlet: jeff green manages diversity coverage for bloomberg
12:40 pm
news. thank you so much. one other issue that has drawn the attention of presumption is crypto -- rhythm of crypto. the launch this weekend of trump's memecoin did draw some criticism and this is something that we talked honorable with kathy wood to get her take on the coin development to bloomberg.com for the commentary there. this is "bloomberg markets." ♪
12:41 pm
12:42 pm
12:43 pm
scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm scarlet fu. it's time now for the stock of the hour. and we're looking at procter & gamble it is the first consumer package goods company to report
12:44 pm
and the shares are higher after organic revenue that beat the average analyst estimate. volumes topped estimates. let's bring in goldman-sachs senior consumer analyst bonnie herzog. fantastic for you to join us. i mentioned organics beating on higher volume which is a change where revenue growth was really driven by price increases is this volume growth sustainable? bonnie: i think we were looking for organics sales closer to 2%. we're better than expected, which is what is driving the stock higher. i think expectations had moved lower heading into the print. and a lot of that has had do with the end market demands slowing a love of what we're seeing with the macro, pressures on the consumer, geopolitical issues. it really highlights proctor's
12:45 pm
ability to execute strongly in what is considered a very difficult environment. so it's encouraging. scarlet: and the c.f.o. did talk about how consumers are trading up. they're moving into bigger pack size ands higher valued items. in what categories does this trading up benefit them? bonnie: almost across the board. keep in mind their categories are non-discretionary in nature. they from benefiting from a lot of the strong innovation that they put into the marketplace so far during this fiscal we're and there's more to come. so their pipeline seems quite robust. so they are really benefiting from, you know, driving trial, further household penetration, yes, sigh consumers trade up, thanks to their very strong execution and i think there's a good chance that continues. now keep in mind the bar is high for them to deliver.
12:46 pm
the other positive this morning was that proctor management was able to maintain their full year guidance and that calls for 3 to 5% organic sales and 5 to 7% core eps growth. management seemed quite confident but they did suggest they have greater visibilitied their full year will come toward the lower end of the ranges. if things improve, management feels they could get toward the middle end of those ranges there's a continue to acceleration the back half of their year. scarlet: can they achieve that second half acceleration if the dollar stays strong or continues to strengthen? bonnie: i mean keep in mind on organic that would not consider a fact. there are certainly some risks on, you know, the strengthening of the dollar, certainly on the bottom line as a consideration. they absolutely took up their fx
12:47 pm
headwind which was expected. we'll see most of the cpg companies as they continue to report this season take up or introduce quite strong headwinds given the dollar. so it's somewhat realistic challenge but i'm encouraged also, encouraged by the execution. so there's a good chance that they can deliver at the bottom end of those ranges. scarlet: when i'm looking at the result, china is clear lay weak spot. you have organic sales falling 3% and the think there is it's going to take time before it's able to be return to some consistent growth does innovation help out procter & gamble or waiting the macro environment to improve? bonnie: given the situation, it's more the latter. and it was encouraging this morning hearing that proctor's business in the court is a mark step-up the previous quarter when it was down 15%. so management sounded pretty
12:48 pm
optimistic that things might -- they're still soft but things are maybe feeling a little bit better. but again, still very cautious for the second half because the recovery in that market is taking a little bit longer and for perspective, keep in mind, china is proctor's second largest market. so it's critical that it improves in the second half. scarlet: i've heard you use the word encouraging receiver times but when i look at the recommendation, it's at a neutral. what would prompt you to upgrade it to an overweight? bonnie: for me to get more constructive, i would like to see trends improve. keep in mind they were better than expected this morning, but, you know, we're still looking at 3% organic sales. for me to get more constructive, bullish on the stock, i would like to see an acceleration of top line growth and then some leverage on the bottom line. and my comfort that is
12:49 pm
sustainable for the next year or two. and when i look at valuation, the stock is trading at a 4d p.e. multiple around 21 times. you know, in this market and relative to peers and historical ranges, it's broadly in that range. so that's another consideration that i'd like to see potentially a better entry point so much i'm looking at it more of a balanced risk-reward but yes, trying to be optimistic and i'll watch for signs only continued improvement. scarlet: i look at p and g which has under performed the s&p 500 overall. given to where it sits, what are the better names to be in right now rather than p & g? bonnie: the whole growth. staples has been pressured and underperformed last year and we were pretty pessimistic to be honest on the staples categories or sector, i should say.
12:50 pm
i'm suggesting that investors put a little bit more new money to work on the beverage stocks. there's a lot of headwinds that those businesses are facing whether it's gop-1 concerns, but when i look at valuation, they do screen much more attractive than the broader hpc category and i would argue those categories are healthier. and i'm seeing stronger, you know, end market can't. so i would highlight some of the beverage stocks. our top picks right now, it's really monster now. so i'm very much leaning into phillip morris, which is nicotine delivering very strong growth. scarlet: thank you so much, bonnie. goldman-sachs senior consumer analyst. p&g shares rising 2.6% on higher volume rather than price hikes. but with do see other companies signaling price increases in that space. coming up, the world economic
12:51 pm
forum currently underway in davos, switzerland, and among those in attendance is the president of ukraine. our exclusive interview with him next. this is bloomberg. ♪
12:52 pm
why do couples choose a sleep number smart bed? i need it a little cool and i need it a lot of cool. sleep number does that. sleep up to 15 degrees cooler on each side. 9 out of 10 couples sleep better. and now, save 40% on our new special edition smart bed. shop a sleep number store near you.
12:53 pm
scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm scarlet fu. the world economic forum currently underway in davos, switzerland, and pong those in attendance is ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy. yesterday he said he sees things moving in the right direction for ukraine after president trump's inaugural pledge to expand u.s. energy exports after he campaigned the promise to end the war in ukraine. our editor in christmas eve john micklethwait was able to sit down with zelenskyy in davos. take a listen. >> it's great if we will have talks, but they have to understand that the talks will not be in the center of the
12:54 pm
capital. they will not have relaxed time. yes. it's very important because i -- some allies said that yes, but it's ok. we can be the center of the city, no, no, we don't need such contingents. yes, with our people, of course. yeah. because this meant security and that's it. but it can be. it can be without the united states. i will explain to you why. even if some european friends think it will, no, it will not be. first of all, nobody will risk without united states. the second, that's what can divide nato, divide e.u. and u.s.a. that is a goal and dream of putin to divide this unity. >> you mentioned china.
12:55 pm
how important is china in these negotiations? i mean, china is the backer of russia. they seem to have an impact on things like putin not using nuclear weapons, those sort of things. can china push putin and do you have any contact with the chinese? >> i had some contacts with xi jinping. we had phone call during the war, not too much, not enough, i think. yes, he can push putin to peace, i'm sure. i think that's only president trump. it is strongest as xi jinping. i think there is no other allies who can really do ital yeah, because his economy, putin is -- depends very much of china. >> you would like donald trump and xi jinping of china to work together to push -- >> yes. but not without us. it's important.
12:56 pm
scarlet: and that was bloomberg editor-in-chief, john micklethwait, speaking with the president of ukraine. and we would like you to stay tuned all week for bloomberg coverage from the world economic forum in davos. before we close out the hour, a reminder here that we have u.s. stocks at record highs right now. the s&p 500 sitting near its best levels of the session, up by .8%. well above that 6090 level. you have the nasdaq leading the way up 1.6% thanks to big gains in netflix today. treasuries and the dollar, not moving a whole lot. the ten-year yield moving 4.3% and the dollar marginally higher from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
12:57 pm
12:58 pm
12:59 pm
announcer: this is balance of power. live from washington dc. joe: trump tariffs are still
1:00 pm
just a threat, 10% against china, others against canada and mexico but nothing real yet. thanks for being with us. many thought they would take effect day one. we thought we would have a plan for a congressional agenda. kailey: there will be a meeting at the white house with moderate republicans and the president after he met with mike johnson and john thune about the to do list congress has. not explaining how and when. joe: republicans sitting with the president today. s.a.l.t. is on the menu. the tax

0 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on