>> tech stocks rebound, traders focus on the fed decision.

seeking deep answers on deep seek, investigating whether the chinese start up obtained data, our scoop. customers tighten their purse strings, fourth-quarter quarter earnings from asml. we are checking futures after a dead in which stocks. losses to reassess investment

thesis. s&p gaining and nasdaq gaining 1.6 percent, nvidia rallied, solid gains to the asian markets , the ftse 100 adding a points. stocks punch through record highs, further gains. futures point up, nasdaq looking to build. focus shifting to earnings of meta and microsoft. let's look at the yield curve, fully expecting to hold.

jay powell will be scrutinized. one of euro-dollar, brent down in the yellow metal down. stable ahead of the fed meeting. is march on the table? let's get you the lines from the equipment maker asml, bookings fat 7 billion euros. sales at 9.2 6 billion, above 9

billion, asml sees 51-53% above 52%. down over the last 12 months, asml pretty strong. what will china say? lethim's dive into the rebound. standing pat. mark cranfi himeld, what are you

listening for? >> looking for guidance on the right path, march seems like a candidate but plenty of ambiguity given the inflation outlook on spending. whether inflation would affect the fed, any warning would be a very important and tightening has been going on. important for short-term on the fed relationship, withdrawing

further is confusing, the fed need to address that. important to see whether the fed go further. >> fully priced, will see if that adjusts and whether jay powell address the point, let's move on. what are you looking for? mark: interesting, which stocks

move markets and microsoft, apple, tesla and meta are big enough to shift the stance so of those tesla is the most volatile. asian markets respond so thursday morning will be lively with the fed decision and tesla and microsoft. on top of that asml numbers were

huge giving european stocks a big boost, asking what is your strategy? whether they have guidance they will need to answer how they will respond and are they part of it. tom: great preview. mark and the team will be busy. microsoft and openai investigate whether deep seek to on authorized output, were joined

by robert lee tracking this, how significant is this? robert: the thing that surprised last week is disclosure that costs was as low as under 6 million u.s. dollars. that caused the upset. u.s. is the leader in global ai, does not want any country or company eating its lunch so there has been a great deal of scrutiny, as i've said we know

there is no reason to question what they're doing. openai allows developers to use external apps to cut corners and boost performance. it is being taken seriously. tom: hearing that from the trump administration. the trump name checked deep seek , we've seen efforts to ban tiktok. are they safe? >> yeah, still early, they need

to investigate the two weeks ago we saw dod blacklist tencent so it all looks to be resolved but the u.s. is the leader, china narrowed the gap but u.s. will not allow them to impinge and we could see some sort of restrictions. tom: indeed.

still on technology bloomberg learned apple has been working with t-mobile to add support for starlink. it's a pool's technology for texting planning to expand into data and voice goals. fashion and leather goods sales fell casting doubt but the ceo remains upbeat. angelina joins me. talk us through what stood out to you, what stood out?

>> hi tom. it was a slight beat crucially on the fashion and leather goods but not enough. investors are accustomed to strong beats, the owner surpassed the expectations on jewelry, watches and jewelry did better with tiffany rising so that shows you actually a that segment is doing well so we will see how the markets open. tom: ok. bernard arnaud comparing the

u.s. to europe and france. was he saying anything about the difference between the u.s. and france? >> he said returning to france is almost like a cold shower. and since the trump election he talks about corporate taxes and unemployment, trying to help businessman and businesswoman get on with their business. there was a sense of disappointment.

and we spoke asking him about trump and he said i've known him for time, he has an acquaintance. we as human had he spoken about the threat and he declined to,. tom: nice piece of color. angelina in paris on the earnings between the u.s. and france. busy day, decision coming through to cut interest rates and then a mammoth day in the u.s. on technology.

we will have full coverage. meanwhile fomc rate commentary from jay powell, will he keep the door open? coming up, a judge blocks trump's plan to freeze grants and loans. we bring you the details next and live at a conference speaking to industry players on private equity including leaders. we will bring you an interview with the deputy ceo, stay tuned, it's coming up, this is

bloomberg.

>> happy wednesday. federal judge blocked trump from halting payments and sparking panic. >> this is a free use to ensure money is in line with trump's agenda and updates will be provided. tom: let's bring in derek wallbank. these things seem to go hand in

hand. what -- what -- what do we know -- why should we care? what do we know? derek: look, a ton of money propping up everything from state to local, between eight and 11% of the budget, there are places where 40% is done on medicaid for low income

individuals. regardless of where the intent was you are downstream trying to figure out the decree. white house pulled this back and we've seen rubio say they will have exemptions for aid, and a lot of question regarding spending, a federal judge stated a lot of the order saying are going to keep this going but i want arguments later. there will be court action but you're seeing people said holland a second, is our still

coming? partners from ukraine to taiwan say are you sure were ok and having to ask those questions. the baseline across everything is reliability. treasuries are reliable. you mess with the foundational consensus and trump is trying to do things differently. when you get into where is the edge that is when you get into chaos. tom: that's why we value derek

wallbank on policymaking from trump and reverberations. indeed. bloomberg launched a newly released podcast focused on the trump administration policies. reporters and guests from dce, wall street and beyond. download that and listen. the e.u. needs simple and better regulation on big banks. more from that interview next. this is bloomberg.

>> banking is not a natural

consequence to see mergers decisions are being by the ecb an competition reasons. those are the rules. the issue is we need to understand banks can provide better services if we understand prices it's the same with banking. it will be the benefit of all clients at lower costs, that is

the driving for banking union unit allowing more promote that movement. >> something that is happening in the trump administration on regulation one great critique is europe is overregulated. is that something you have to look at? does europe need to deregulate? >> i don't like the expression because that brings concerns about financial stability but there is a need to have regulation to focus on how to

reduce the burden. you need to simplify,. deregulate. tom: that was the eu's financial services commissioner speaking all crook, fourth quarter miss adjusted operating profit, estimates had been 14.5 millio

the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways.

tom: good morning this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm tom mackenzie in london, these are the stories that set your agenda. tech stocks rebound from the shut off the royal global markets, traders turn their focus to the fed decision, looking for clues on a rate cut in march. smasher estimates as the ai boom drives demand for its advanced chipmaking machines and seeking deep answers on deep seek. bloomberg learns microsoft is interesting -- investigating whether the chinese start up obtained ai data without permission. we bring you our school. it is a massive dave earnings. european numbers coming through from asml and then we switch focus to the picture on the mag seven with meta, microsoft and tesla all reporting later today. arguably, the tech earnings more important than the fed. that depends on what jay powell has to say at that press

conference. european futures pointing to a solid start. risk on, asml helping the sentiment and turnarounds on ai. the gains they came through yesterday on wall street power and the upside that not a fresh record yesterday looking to build on that significantly today with futures pointing higher. the ftse 100 looking a little more demure. currently flat. s&p futures adding .2% after rallying 0.9 percent yesterday. nasdaq 100 futures closing up 1.6% looking to add point 4% with a focus squarely on the earnings numbers. that's across asset if you want the gauge of the sensitivity around the fed as markets price and a full two cuts by the end of this year. look at the treasury curve. benchmark currently for 52. that could adjust during the tenure. euro-dollar at 104. there's a build out of use at the ecb will have to do more of tariffs come from a trump

administration. markets currently pricing in just around 90 basis points of cuts by the end of the year for the european central bank. euro-dollar currently up .1%. brent at $77 a barrel down 10% and go counting off. let's get more details in terms of the earnings story this time from the spirit maker over in france. they are seeing third quarter revenue coming in above estimates. it's a beat in the third quarter. 254 million euros. the estimates had been for 200 44. the cognac maker coming in with organic revenue that contracted 21 .5%. but that was a less severe contraction then have been estimated. that is the earnings from that cognac maker. let's get back to a more important stock objectively. asml, fourth-quarter earnings smashing estimates amid in ai boom. european stock futures jumping

on a better-than-expected number. let's get the details with bloomberg charlotte who is in amsterdam. what stood out to you from these numbers? charlotte: it's really a beat across the board for asml in this quarter. you've got ceo coming out and saying record year, record quarter and what will be relief and investors are really shaken by monday selloff. asml really doubling down on this a smi story. looking at some of the remarks. the ceo of asml saying that ai is really the driver of that bookings beat for that quarter. we saw a net bookings over 7 billion euros, 3 billion was for asml z butte machines which were the cutting edge machines they used to create the highest tech chips that power ai. asml is saying this is where the opportunity is, we expect demand to say really strong. they kept their 2025 net sales

guidance unchanged, so you know there's a real opportunity given this kind of strong demand for ai at the top of the range. some relief for investors who are kind of shaken by the selloff early on monday. tom: that 3 billion number for the eu's is remarkable given analysts had expected up one billion for that number. tsmc upgraded their guidance around cap expand, they are a major buyer of these eu these from asml. on the china question, the team will be talking about that for some time, the fact they have to make up a short full of orders, that had to come to an end. what is the china piece of the pie for asml going forward? charlotte: looking through these initial numbers we would see that sales this quarter -- sales to china are down about 27% over

asml sales. we really see the feedthrough of the pressure, the export restrictions coming through from the u.s. are having an impact on asml's sales to china. you have the dutch prime minister saying we expect the trump administration to keep pushing on those export restrictions and keep exerting pressure on asml to really slow down sales to china in the interest of national security. this quarter we see this big drop off so that's what stood out for us and it's definitely something investors will be watching. tom: excellent breakdown with the results of asml. a crucial stock. charlotte in amsterdam. thank you. to the u.k. where keir starmer said the economy is starting to turn around. is it? growth is his government's top priority. he spoke with the chief executive officers of some of britain's biggest firms right

here at bloomberg's european hq. >> the number one priority of this labor government is growth. growth, growth, growth. by that i mean wealth creation. that's why what you've seen in recent days is a number of announcements about how we will strip away the inhibition of planning, use ai to take us forward. today we have the opportunity across a number of sectors to have a really good discussion about how much further we can go. but the number one mission is wealth creation. we have to get our economy working. i think we are beginning to see how that's turning around. we will build on that as we go forward. tom: the prime minister speaking to bloomberg here at our european headquarters yesterday. in his vision is matched by the vision of chancellor rachel reeves who will expand on that in a speech today. she will pledge to go further and faster to boost the u.k. economy by unlocking new

infrastructure projects. something the team was approaching on. onset around the table, what can we expect? if this was a government that was in a deep slumber about the need for growth, than they seem to have woken up from that slumber. announcement after announcement, speech after speech and they seem to be determined to shake things up when it comes to the growth picture. >> i would say that this pivot started in davos with rachel reeves interview with john micklethwait. i was talking to the former boss of tesco who said it's all very well to talk about growth, but you can't talk your way to growth. you can't just say something. if you look at the policies labor have implemented so far in data, the tax rises in the october budget have weighed on the economy. you've got private sector stagnating, public sector overshooting forecasts. jobs cut at the fastest pace of

the financial crisis. they say they are cutting 3000 euros. you have an exodus of millionaires because of the non-dog rules. in the market turmoil. the data actually looking pretty glum. what business wants his policy to match that ambition that you heard from keir starmer. in reeves expecting to say growth will not come without a fight. what does that mean? we've already reported we are expecting her to announce there will be approval at heathrow. a fight would come on the climate. within her own cabinet as well, but also from business. speaking to the cfo of ryanair. let's just remind you of what he said yesterday. >> we are keen to see more growth in capacity but the plan to capacity while at the same time putting taxes is kind of contradictory. if you really want your airlines

to grow in the u.k., then you need to bring down the taxes. -- passengers arriving and leaving from the country. i will call on the government to reduce apd and then start looking at the capex. >> it won't come easily but growth is the holy grail, even if it takes a while to achieve it. they've got to go for it given the status quote they know they will compete given donald trump's america. tom: lizzy burden. rachel reeves will be speaking later. lizzy burden, our u.k. correspondent covering all of that. investment strategists. there's a lot to unpack. let's start with the u.k. good morning, how do you and the team think about u.k. assets, u.k. equities at this point, whether domestically for businesses on expectations that may be the boe is going to cut more than markets expects, or

the internationally exposed ftse 100 names. is there anything you want to be adding when it comes u.k. stocks at this point? >> i think we have to separate a very challenging backdrop. their weak surveys we've seen in recent weeks, rise in unemployment numbers. comments from the likes of marks & spencer that caution with the years ahead. we have to balance that with a longer term view and we do take that out term view and in the u.k. we have significant productivity gap, not just for the u.s. but also with the likes of france and germany, so we get some encouragement, some of the moves this government is talking about to boost that level of productivity, then we have projections out that i think really upset the apple cart because they projected the working age population in this country would grow at 9.5 percent between now and 2030 two. that's not conventional wisdom at all between any of economist

report we have a demographic problem. i think we have to think about it's difficult in the short-term. there are few arguments for the u.k. at the moment. but if you look ahead 3, 4, five years, there still some optimism there that this can actually change. tom: still some optimism. what assumptions are you making about the bank of england, traders pricing and 70 basis points, do we get below 4% by the end of the year? >> i think that's a big move. in the u.k. we have got a problem that we still got very sticky inflation, we've seen no real change to that, that's coming from a jobs market where we've had labor shortages. there are signs that that's turning around, and if that does, that will be absolutely crucial to see rates come down further. we have to see that data come through before we have more conviction on it. we will watch and learn but we are looking at the u.s. with very few rate cuts coming through, the u.k. having to mirror that to some degree

because our currency pressures have been a little bit more cautious than the investment banks talking about 4, 5, six cuts in the next 12 months. tom: has deep seek and what we've seen in terms of innovation out of china, has that changed your ai thesis? quakes it has called into question, looking ahead on how much these companies need to spend, but we have been more cautious towards a magnificent seven when we've been adding to the u.s. in recent months, cross portfolio has been looking equal weighted rather than buying the overall index. we've also generally be looking at things like small to mid cap in the u.s. it was an in area where we were particularly bullish in any case, we were concerned about the earnings expectations that were based -- baked into the stocks, valuations. it hasn't changed in that perspective but what it does teach us is that these companies

in the u.s. don't need to spend the same amounts. you could argue that that's a bullish case that could get more for less and you could argue there is increases around ai usage and increased demand for chips in the long run. but i think in the short-term term, until we hear more on how deep seek really did build this model, whether they used competitors knowledge, to some degree, which it's sounding increasingly like that was part of it, i think they have to consider that maybe there isn't going to be a big rebound. tom: maybe a look for the breath beyond mag seven when it comes to the u.s. linzie james investment strategists. thank you. coming up, we will be live on the ground at the private equity conference in cannes. kriti gupta with a really great cast. stay tuned for that conversation . there's plenty more coming up. stay with us. preeti: this is a fascinating

conversation, trillions of dollars being put to work in the private markets and wealth markets, we are going to have it covered. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: happy wednesday. after two years of falling deal values, 2024's are capital markets warming up. but a second donald trump presidency and changing government policy in europe could temper or turbocharge the recovery. strong equity markets are giving some companies the confidence and capital to pursue deals. private equity firms reopening their checkbooks to hunt for bargains in the public markets. kriti gupta, who understands this better than anyone else, is on the ground for us live at the cannick event with global

alternative asset math -- with nearly 50 billion u.s. dollars under management. priti: thank you. this is one of the biggest players in europe. before we get to him, i want to highlight how much is at stake. we are looking at a tough geopolitical environment, a tricky environment and there are trillions of dollars wrapped up in these private markets that are starting to make their way to the public markets. we will see if that continues. we are here with tko capital frederick, the deputy ceo of tko joins me here. pleasure to have you on the program. thank you for joining me. we were just talking about the steelmaking ability. so many geopolitics at play, so many different factors. does that help or hinder the case for private markets right now? >> steelmaking activity has been picking up, especially the second half of this year. we expected to be strong going forward. you mentioned interest rates environment and the pent-up demand as well and a backup of

transactions. yes, we will see some bifurcation and discussion of valuation metrics going forward. so the volume will increase but the valuation metrics will be very diverse in terms of activities. especially against the backdrop we just mentioned. long-term interest rates still going up on the back log activities is as massive as work to deal with. we are very excited but we are still very cautious about implementing this activity. priti: we are in this beautiful setting. i think we both got the best assignments from our respective workplaces. it's not as lovely as the dealmaking environment in the states. this divergence you see between the states and europe seems only be getting bigger, especially after the election of dollar trump and is the regulatory agenda. does europe benefit from that, is there a spillover effect or does europe have catching up to do? >> there is this mood today where you have this american

exceptionalism and european pessimism. it's a headline re-keeps hearing the music we keep hearing. most of european companies are global companies, so they are exposed to the u.s. and asia as well. so i'm not sure you can really oppose europe and the u.s. also europe still needs to find the economic compass and growth focus. but it is also fair to say that there are a lot of strength in the system. spending is strong. a lot of privately owned companies on top of our own companies that are very large growth opportunities ahead of them as well. priti: there are two key sectors on both sides of the atlantic. both in the public markets and private markets. ain defense. every time you say those words everyone's ears perk up. we know tko is a major player in the defense investment space in the private markets. this is the space we need scale

to excel? >> we have been active for more than a decade. we have been very much active. the difference is a very interesting value sector. a lot of suppliers, consolidation, modernization of the manufacturing capabilities, international properties. there is a lot of value in the system. right now, a lot of visibility will contract. some of these companies of more than 15 years of visibility. not so much government dependent. so there is a lot of visibility in the system but of value creation in transition, which is what we are tackling in this environment as well. priti: some would argue that those contracts there is a volatility in the geopolitical space in terms of the depth and extent that affects valuation. the second trump presidency might mean more defense spending in the states than previously.

how do you do the math on that given the geopolitics itself are changing so rapidly, especially as we still have two major wars raging in this region alone? >> is not so much government dependent because of long-term trends you are facing. yes, higher tariffs and more different spending will impact the sector. across the board but the sector in particular. we don't believe it will be so dependent on geopolitical and the short term. long-term trends, long-term players. yes, you might have some on the road and some volatility. and we saw that during covid. we were active during covered. lots of volatility in variation. there has been some volatility in the sector. during covid it has been moving a lot. priti, we have to wrap this question up with we started this

interview talking about a pickup in dealmaking. in 2025 what hinders our progress? >> i think we need to keep our eyes on interest rates. also on the short end of the, the wrong end of the curve. we see government spending, we expect there's a cuts deeper. it will have some impact on valuation and companies out there on the supply and demand will also have an impact on these valuations. we need to be mindful of that, so the activities will increase, but you have a large difference. yesterday we mentioned that before the interview. they have been trying to ipo six companies. they got a better pricing -- pricing in a volatile sense. we see this kind of activity across the different market. ipo's, m&a and the economy.

priti: we see the geopolitics and private markets, which are supposed to be insulated, all wrapped up together. the deputy ceo of tko. tom: great interview. what a lovely backdrop. play more interviews coming through through the next few hours. and there's more from us as well in the next couple of minutes. we will give you a preview of those check earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: three of the mag seven reporting later today. it's a story illustrated across the mag seven earnings if the analysts are right, which is growth will be there and is slowing from previous quarters. this is the microsoft story expecting to see growth of about $70 billion in terms of sales. the scrutiny will be on copilot, on the ai products that they are shipping and to what extent is

the traction and upside for that. that's with the board and have a look at what to expect from meta. this up 70% of the last 12 months. largely unaffected meta-by what we see from deep seek. by some respects it actually justifies their open source model. we focus on what they see in terms of products but also to what extent ai is powering things like the ad sales from meta. that will be important. look at tesla, that stock up 110% in the last 12 months. the cheaper model, will that come through from musk? they shipped fewer cars last year than the year before and what they are doing on the robotaxi will be in focus. the earnings later today. the opening trade is up next. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts, in more than 120 countries. -- this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: good morning from london. where an hour away from opening trade. u.s. tech stocks rebound from the selloff earlier th