tom: good morning, this is bloomberg "daybreak europe," i'm tom mackenzie in london. an american airlines subsidiary plane with 64 people on board collides midair with a military helicopter in washington, d.c.

prompting a huge search and rescue operation in the potomac river. also ahead, no hurry to cut. jerome powell says the fed is waiting to see progress on u.s. inflation, after keeping rates unchanged. the ecb expected to cut later today. meta climbs post market as mark zuckerberg predicts a quote really big year for ai, while it is a mixed bag of results for microsoft and tesla, we look ahead to apple and intel results. tom: we begin with that developing story in the u.s. where a passenger plane has collided with a military helicopter midair in washington, d.c. a search-and-rescue operation is underway in the potomac river where the plane crashed.

let's get details from bloomberg's aviation reporter danny lee. >> we have at least 18 bodies that have been recovered from the river so far according to cbs. as detailed still on hold we don't have word on more casualties or potential totality's, but this was an accident that took place at 9 p.m. -- just after 9 p.m. on wednesday. as we saw subsequently a huge search-and-rescue operation in the atomic river in the nation's capital just outside ronald reagan airport with this midair collision took place between a subsidiary of an american airlines jet and also a black hawk helicopter. we have a press conference currently live at the moment. we will be monitoring headlines for that. numeral subscribers can see that on our tliv pages. we have had so if reaction from the likes of president trump, who said this was a collision that should have been prevented.

we heard from american airline'' ceo who expressed his deep sorrow for this tragedy. as the hours go on, we would like to see more details, particularly this rapid investigation being launched, led by the ntsb the accident investigation team, and also, the department of defense. tom: bloomberg's aviation reporter danny lee. you can see that live press conference right now. we keep across a story for you throughout this hour. we will get an update in the next 20 minutes from the team monitoring what is unfolding and washington, d.c. this is a live situation and the press conference continues. we will switch focus to the earnings story in europe. us get the latest lines from the drugmaker roche in switzerland. here is the redhead, roche seeing full year 2025 sales increase in the mid single digit

range. mid single digit range increase for the full year 2025 in terms of sales. the stock is up 18% less 12 once. the focus is on the pipeline. m&a is well expected to be scrutinized, their appetite for further deals. roche sees an opportunity to further increase the dividend. that's another line crossing, in terms of core earnings per share full year, coming in at 18.8 swiss francs above the estimates. full-year core earnings-per-share, it's a beat for roche, operating profit just below the estimates. for the full year. to the banking space. or bank, the redhead for germany's largest lender, fourth-quarter fic and trading revenue with a solid beat for deutsche bank in terms of fixed income, currencies and trading 1.9 billion euros. estimates of 1.77 billion euros, so a solid beat for the german

lender. deutsche bank shares up 67% the last 12 months. we will hear in under half an hour from deutsche bank's cfo. the semiconductor space and st micro in france which faced challenges for those chips they supply to the industrial space and autos, currently the redhead across st micro, first quarter net revenue coming in below estimates. it is amiss for st micro, first quarter net revenue at $2.5 billion, the estimate had been $2.73 billion, so a miss for st micro a semiconductor challenged by higher inventories. let's stay on the earnings story because we got a number of big ticket earnings from the likes of meta, microsoft and ibm overnight. a mixed picture when it comes to u.s. tech earnings. meta saying sales in the current quarter will fall short of

estimates. shares gaining in extended trading after mark zuckerberg predicted that 2025 will be quote a really big year for ai, with meta planning to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to ensure dominance. microsoft shares fell after it warned the growth of its cloud computing is hampered by a shortage of data centers. the azure cloud will grow not as much as it grew in the final months of 2024. and tesla shares were up despite earnings missing forecasts. ceo elon musk announcing plans to begin robotaxi operations in june and has forecast quote an epic period of growth. running need to break things down on this front is matt bloxham from bloomberg intelligence. there is a lot to work through. what stood out to you and the team? >> part of it as they have all got a positive narrative. it is all about ai. microsoft falling, tesla and

meta gaining, i think is more about the emphasis they are putting on the future in a very much meta and tesla saying forget about the short-term, this is still a massive growth opportunity, look at these exciting things we are doing that over the mid to long-term will make his bigger companies than we are today. whereas microsoft hampered to some degree by the short term challenges of this huge growth we're seeing that you cannot build enough data centers quickly enough to meet that demand. microsoft said they have got $300 billion of committed contracts they have to deliver against over the midterm, so they have a huge runway of demand. they are probably frustrated that investors were not picking up on that. they were picking up on the issues around booking that as revenue in the near term. tom: it is interesting in terms of how we think about deepseek and the impact there. did you say $300 billion that they have to deliver on and build the data centers to deliver on that, yet the question in earnings is willow

bay be dialing back capex because suddenly models can be produced more efficiently with lower end chips? >> we don't see that happening soon, if that happens at all it is a 2026 and beyond story the way i see it. meta very much talked up the deepseek developments, the innovations that they can build into their own technology. we heard the same thing from microsoft, too. this is where the bulls and bears about deepseek are coming out. yes, it will drive down costs. microsoft saying they are doing that already in openai, but that lower cost base maybe stiglitz faster growth -- stimulates faster growth in the operation of generative ai might have the overall demand but the revenue mix is different, more volume for better value. tom: microsoft might offer deepseek to its customers as well. talking of openai, the news that softbank is looking to invest a significant amount in ai.

what are the implications of masayoshi increasing his stake? >> 15 to $25 billion is what we are hearing in the initial investment negotiations with potentially $40 billion over time, on top of the $15 billion they are already investing in the stargate data center business. consistent with the noise softbank has been making about investing more in the u.s. to fit the trump narrative, perhaps not a big surprise, definitely openai needs cash flow and capital injections to fund its own big investments in building capability, investing in the technology. continuing to protect its position has one of the leading open source ai companies in the world. tom: a reminder that it is at least for now about investment in terms of ring fencing these innovations. matt bloxham from bloomberg intelligence breaking down the tech earnings and the implications of that potentially

huge investment from softbank for openai. the federal reserve decision not a surprise that they held, but the language from jay powell was in focus, and he sees with other -- seems along with other officials, in no rush to cut further. interesting lines about how they are thinking about trump's policies. the uncertainty is one aspect that the fed and jay powell seem to be weighing up with increased attention. european futures, gains of 0.3 percent, after european equities punched through a fresh record yesterday. the focus on the earnings story today. for the 120 lower 0.1%. s&p stateside after's office yesterday pointing to gains. the nasdaq 100 futures with that tech heavy component pointing to gains of 0.6%. we will be watching after those earnings the likes of meta and tesla particularly, given the optimistic tone around ai. let's have a lacrosse asset. u.s. 10-year treasury in focus.

4.51 on the 10-year. the bank of japan deputy governor, equitation that he could sound a hawker shown. $76 a barrel on crue. fed chair jerome powell saying the central bank will wait for further evidence of cooling inflation before adjusting interest rates again. the fed voted unanimously to keep the benchmark rate on hold. powell says they want to see what policies the trump administration will enact before assessing their impact on the economy. >> with our policy stands significantly less restrictive than it had been and he economy remaining strong, we do not need to hurry to adjust our policy stance. tom: let's bring in mliv strategist mark cranfield. this is a fed that is not in

skipping mode, it is on hold mode, and it seems like the policy uncertainty around trump is a factor. >> as you mentioned earlier, they have may be that into account. when traders take a second look at what happened yesterday, the fed themselves are happy that caused little disruption to the market volatility on a day when it was low and u.s. markets are not looking too different from where they were last night. when you look at the futures markets. but the part that is most interesting for investors is that jerome powell, they tweaked the language slightly on inflation, but made it clear in the press conference that there is no room for negotiation on the 2% inflation target. that will be taken as mildly hawkish because some people would hope that since inflation has come down so far, and the outlook may be by now is more benign, that would give the room to lower interest rates further this year. traders are looking at less than two interest-rate cuts the rest

of this year. that is a slightly more negative tone than yesterday. people will probably say that was a swing factor, if anything, it is a slightly hawkish read on chair powell. tom: what is the read across to the boj? this is a central bank that you have the finger on the pulse of. is it open the doors for the boj to be hawkish as investors now price stronger yen? >> as you were saying, that it governor will speak shortly. he was the guy that set up the rate hike this month. it was his speech a week before that did the trick. even before he stands up today, we have had a big story saying the bank of japan will reduce one part of its lending program by july. that means another step in quantitative tightening that japan is quietly reducing its balance sheet while almost nobody notices. clearly, the messaging, which ever way you cut it is that

governor ueda does not like unconventional policies and is removing them step-by-step. the yen's drunkard or today even before the deputy governor speaks. they will push through the rate hikes. but the moment, nobody expecting march, but then again, not many people were expecting january they ramped up attention just in the last two weeks before the decision. that could happen again. traders are not complacent, they expect that himeno good again like the fees, and they could be ready to do something in march. tom: i will bring an update in the next couple seconds. mark cranfield breaking down the fed decision and what to expect from the boj. talking of which, the deputy governor is saying real rates in japan remain in negative territory, even after the hikes to 0.5%. the bank of japan deputy governor speaking in tokyo, saying they will raise rates if

the outlook is realized, the boj will raise further if the outlook is realized read that is from the deputy governor of the bank of japan. the japanese yen is stronger 0.4 percent, trading at 154 versus the u.s. dollar. let's switch focus back to the unfolding news event in d.c., which is this tragic plane crash in washington, d.c. a passenger plane colliding with a military helicopter. this is a live press conference right now from reagan airport which was the destination for this aircraft. i believe we can listen in. >> my focus is getting the passengers and crew out of the water. >> earlier we had guidance that dcaa was going to be shut down at least until friday at 5:00 a.m. >> 11:00 a.m. >> tomorrow? >> tomorrow. >> yes. >> we can take a few more

questions. here, a question here. [indiscernible] >> i can't say anything about a rescue operation right now. who was next? >> chief donnelly, can you speak more about the unified command who leads this phase of the rescue and recovery? at what point do you change phases and can you describe the scene as best as you can when first responders arrived? >> i have been listening to the radio this evening when the call came out. i listened to the responders come in. after the initial response, they were very professional trying to locate this. if you can imagine, the river is a large black spot at night with no lights on it, except a few do we lights. they were out there looking. the boats pretty quickly located

one of the aircraft and get there. that is what is going on right now. everybody is working on that. we will reevaluate where we are with rescue operations in the morning but we are still working and will continue throughout the night. >> is there any sense that there are survivors? >> we don't know yet but we are working. >> is any of this happening overland? >> no. tom: that is the live press conference at reagan airport in washington, d.c. as officials, law enforcement and the mayor respond to questions about this unfolding event. we know that a jet flown for american airlines collided with a military helicopter. we have no information on possible casualties. there are reports that 18 bodies have been recovered so far. we continue to monitor the story for you. the european central bank expected to cut by 25 basis

points today. live in frankfurt with a preview that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ all right. ♪ ♪ we're jammin' ♪ ♪♪ mom, look! ew! mom look. ♪♪ mom look. mom look. mom. look! mom. mom, mom, mom. mom, look what i got. the best way to make family memories

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tom: welcome back. the ecb widely expected to cut rates by another quarter-point this afternoon, but traders will be looking out for what policymakers say about the path ahead. let's cross over to lizzy burden the ecb in frankfurt. i rate cut appears to be kind of a done deal today. lizzy: the ecb pretty much on autopilot. this meeting and at the next one in march. that is what economists unanimously assume about today. the reason is they need to resuscitate the euro area economy. we will get another read on that at 10:00 a.m. london time.

we get fourth-quarter euro area gdp numbers. of course the whole region beleaguered when it comes to growth, particularly france and germany because of their politics. beyond march, that's where things get really hairy. april is the real battleground meeting. by then we should have more clarity hopefully on donald trump's tariff plans for europe, although those can change at the drop of a hat. the result of the german election, the updated forecasts as well. most economists interestingly do not see christine lagarde in the press conference today dropping hints about the future path ahead. she will keep her cards close to her chest. we have heard from the likes of france's friends while villeroy saying he is prepared to take the deposit rate to 2% by june. klaas knot from the netherlands saying he is not yet willing to

go that far, or not to pin his cards to that in particular. the closer we get to 2% which is where many think is neutral, the hawks see it as higher, that is when the debate will start up in frankfurt. tom: lizzy will be across that story for us. 90 basis points of cuts by the end of the year getting to the slums margin above 2% by december the 18th. we will have special coverage of the ecb decision from 1:15 p.m. u.k. time. we will bring that news conference with christine lagarde at 1:45 p.m. stay with us this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg

"daybreak europe." some other stories this thursday. president trump will order the pentagon and department of homeland security to prepare a facility at guantanamo bay that could house as many as 30,000 undocumented migrants. trump said the guantanamo effort could double u.s. capacity for migrant detentions as part of a broader overhaul of immigration policy. bloomberg learned the trump administration exploring additional curbs on the sale of nvidia chips to china. sources say officials are focused on chips used for ai development that have already been scaled down to meet existing restrictions. nvidia shares fell on the news extending a rocky week for the chipmaker. american investors vying to buy tiktok secured more than $20 billion for their offer according to jesse tinsley, the tech entrepreneur organizing the bid, he recruited two additional tech bosses including the roblox

cofounder and ceo. last week president trump signed an executive order to delay and forcing a law that would ban tiktok in the u.s. unless bytedance divests. we will hear from the cfo of deutsche bank. that, after of the largest lender in germany came through with higher revenue, largely on the back of debt trading. that is an important conversation. we will be airing it in the next couple of minutes. the interview with deutsche bank's cfo is

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tom: good morning, this is

bloomberg "daybreak europe," i'm tom mackenzie in london. an american airlines subsidiary plane with 64 people on board collides midair with a military helicopter in washington, d.c. prompting a huge search and rescue operation in the potomac river. recovery operations could take several days. jerome powell says the fed is waiting to see more progress on u.s. inflation, after keeping rates unchanged. the ecb expected to cut later today. and meta climbs post market as mark zuckerberg predicts quote a really big year for ai, while it is a mixed bag of results for microsoft and tesla. apple and intel results come later today. we have had earnings across the european earning space very deutsche bank with a beat. costs are something of a challenge. we will hear from the cfo in the next minute. you have heard lines from roche

and st micro. st micro still suffering from a buildout in inventories for the industrial space. european chipmakers with gains of 0.3%. ftse futures down 0.1%. nasdaq 100 futures set for a strong day, plunging buyer -- pointing higher. we've been hearing from the bank of japan's deputy governor. the 10-year 4.50 2, 70 six dollars a barrel on brent and gold up. fixed income traders having a record-breaking fourth quarter. revenue up 26%. costs those something of a hamper. the cfo has been speaking to bloomberg. >> all of the businesses were up, rates, credit, fx and emerging-market. really broad-based strength. in a market that -- where there was a lot of movement frankly.

the geopolitical events, shifts in economic times, rate changes were all playing through. to answer your question, the first few weeks of the year have demonstrated continuation of those trends from the fourth quarter. we are encouraged by that. tom: deutsche bank cfo james von moltke speaking to bloomberg's oliver crook. on the back of those earnings. we hope to bring you more of that interview the next two hours. the fixed income team at deutsche bank holding -- put in a record quarter. the cost could be a concern for investors. the shares over the last 12 months up about six or 7%. let's return to the plane crash and investigation that continues in washington, d.c. a passenger jet colliding with a military helicopter as it approached reagan national airport. 64 people were on board the

american airlines flight. a searches ongoing in the potomac river. aviation reporter danny lee has been following the story. >> we have just had a press conference from some u.s. officials describing the conditions they are working with. divers are very much in search and rescue mode trying to find any survivors in the potomac river, to see if any of the 64 passengers aboard the plane, any of the u.s. army personnel on the helicopter in this midair collision, if they can be found. right now there is a critical golden window to find any survivors at the moment but conditions are very difficult. it is cold, it is dark. divers searching at the moment are operating in icy conditions, murky waters of eight feet of water. it is very challenging at the moment. of course, divers will have to sidestep some of the wreckage

potentially. tough conditions in the dark of night in the nation's capital. a tragic accident has taken place just outside washington reagan national airport. a very busy airport. a lot of answers needed, and recriminations from this tragic accident. tom: this is an ongoing situation, the rescue operation continues, and we will continue to bring our viewers updates when they cross. danny lee, thank you very much indeed, our aviation reporter and expert with the latest on that story out of washington, d.c. back to the earnings story. sanofi has come through with a big announcement around buybacks. this with a focus of course on a more positive outlook in terms of revenue streams for 2025. planning to buy back 5 billion euros. they do see higher profit

growth. this business moved away from the consumer part to more focus on vaccines, particularly respiratory vaccines. santa fe preparing and planning a 5 billion euros share buyback. dividend per share, that came in at three euros and 92 cents, fourth-quarter earnings missed estimates for sanofi, they see growth of 10.3%, that is 2024 earnings per share guidance. sales came in at a constant fx rate of 10% was the increase in the fourth quarter. about the estimates in the fourth quarter. 10.5 billion euros, the estimate had been 10.4 billion. but the redhead is focused on this 5 billion euro share buyback. we will speak to the cfo of that business at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. tune in for his take on the numbers coming through from that drugmaker.

on the macro front, we have had lines in terms of france's preliminary fourth-quarter gdp. following 0.1% -- falling 0.1% in the most recent quarter, that is quarter on quarter, so it was contraction, the estimate had been growth would be flat, so a worse than expected picture for the growth in france. the european central bank is coming through with its decision later today, expected to cut to 10 nonpoint some 5% -- 2.7 5%, the question is will they have to do more given the lackluster growth in france and germany? 1.04 as you can see on euro-dollar, as investors weigh up that softer. on the growth front out of france. germany's parliament approved a resolution for tougher immigration rules after the far-right afd helped a mainstream party secure a majority for the first time. chancellor olaf scholz accused

conservative leader friedrich merz of resorting to populism. merz's block is leading the polls ahead of afd and scholz's social democrats. renault wants a premium for its stake in nissan if honda takes over its japanese car making rival. presented it's for the french carmaker flew to japan earlier this week to voice concerns over how that tie up may be structured. honda and nissan announced a merger late last year aimed at helping them compete in a global car industry. bbva posted fourth-quarter profit that was well above expectations great spain's second largest lender announced a share buyback worth one billion euros. the bank promised to pay out 50% of its profit to shareholders. caixabank reported net income for the fourth quarter that beat estimates very the spanish lender will also launch a share buyback program for as much as 500 million euros.

at the opening trade we will speak with the caixabank ceo at seven 20 a.m. u.k. time follow by the bbva chair at 7:30 a.m. a deep dive in terms of the spanish banking space given the beats that came through for the earnings on both fronts. no doubt questions about the buyback as well. to geopolitics and the middle east now because the palestinian authority prime minister says his government wants to rebuild gaza with help from the trump administration and saudi arabia. but that would require israeli forces leaving the territory and removing hamas from power. mohammad mustafa spoke exclusively with bloomberg about how he sees that happening. >> saudi arabia has said openly and publicly that they want to engage. they want to have a more integrated, more peaceful region. but he also said that without the palestinian statehood issue

addressed in the right way, nothing will happen. so we do count on the support of our brothers in saudi arabia and the region. of course, many countries around the world that has been supportive of our cause. palestinian statehood, as you know, we have 149 countries who recognize palestine despite the challenges and difficulties. we have every reason to believe it is doable. it is tough, it is difficult but maybe the time has finally come. >> if the time has come, it will have to run through washington with the new trump administration. this is a delicate situation for you because the pla's relationship with the last trump administration was somewhat strained. tell us how it is going in the first weeks of this administration. >> i have every reason to

believe this administration will actually help us all do the right deal, a balanced deal, that could hopefully end the conflict in the region. >> and you have that feeling because of our relationship you have started with the president, or the people around him? >> the good news here, if you like, there is bilateral damage but there is also the regional damage, and the global damage. everybody in the world now want to see palestinians have their own state. many people in the u.s. but also many in the united nations and many countries in the region. it is kind of the right thing to do if you like. the momentum that we have seen even before the administration officially started on january 20, their engagement from day one. as you know, steven witkoff is

in the region. he will probably be in gaza today. that shows engagement and interest and he has taken time to learn about what's going on. and i'm sure this will be very helpful. tom: palestinian authority prime minister mohammad mustafa speaking exclusively to bloomberg's ethan bronner in ramallah. what else to think about today as we lead up to the european central bank decision, before that 10:00 a.m. u.k. time euro area fourth-quarter gdp after the number for france was offer the next -- than expected -- softer than expected. the ecb fellow by the press conference which will be ardently more important. that is because traders are fully pricing a 25 basis point cut by the european central bank. at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time, still on the macro front, we get fourth-quarter gdp for the u.s.

that is the first reading. jay powell referencing the strength of the u.s. economy which is allowing the fed to stay on hold yesterday. after the market, we will get apple earnings after we got the number from meta, microsoft and tesla. concerns from some analysts as they downgrade that stock particularly when it comes to sales of the iphone and what apple can offer on ai. talking of ai, we will speak to the ceo of swiss engineering firm abb, orders surging on data center demand but the innovations of deepseek in china pose a challenge for the buildout of energy and data centers going forward. we will speak to the ceo in the next three minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪♪ ♪ three little birds ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

tom: looking back to bloomberg

"daybreak europe," abb's orders rose in the third quarter as demand for data centers drives the elective acacian business great i am joined by the abb ceo morten wierod. good morning, the orders and demand you are seeing in the fourth quarter, to what extent did they set you up for momentum in 2025? what is the picture looking like in terms of demand as you put forward? morten: thanks tom, it was a good quarter for us especially on the orders side, but also the revenue that came out on a record high level for the quarter and the year. with that momentum, we are positive now for 2025 as well, and coming out with a guidance of mid-single digit growth for the year. and continue to improve on that record level performance we had in 2024. we believe we can make another record year of 20 55.

tom: is the guidance overly conservative? morten: it is positive guidance. when you break one record, you want to take the next one. it is a judgment of markets. we played both in the electrification and automation market. it is a good place to be these days. tom: electrification doing well. when do robotics turnaround? morten: we saw the start of a turnaround in the fourth quarter. it is the first time for many quarters that we had positive order momentum. that was on the backdrop that we have to de-book 130 million dollars in that part of the business. now we are turning the corner and i think we will see sequential improvement over the year. it will not be a rapid take up but we start to see that there is more positive momentum in that field, both in asia, but

also in america's, and in europe on that side. i think we turned the corner on that part of the business. tom: what are you into this team doing around deepseek? if we produce models that are more efficient, does that not pose a question mark around the buildout of data centers going forward? are any customers having conversations about being conservative as a result of those more efficient models? morten: not so far, you have to remember last week we had discussions about 500 billion dollars of new spend on ai data centers, then you had monday deepseek. this was the sign of a market with that kind of volatility. that kind of a market. we believe in the long-term avail i, the long-term of data center, that is clearly a made. then it is a discussion who is the winner in that market but i

don't think anyone questions if ai is a thing that will go away. it is here to stay and it will be significant investment in future. that's what we hear when we talk with all our partner and customers, the feedback is the recommitment to that. we welcome new innovation. if you can do this with better energy efficiency, and what we see today would only be a positive i think, and it could be more widespread access to ai so that it can benefit more customers, bigger part of the society. that went rather be a positive as i see it. tom: what is your exposure to data centers and how does that compare to your competitors? morten: our electrification business which is about half of abb, it stands this year 15% on

our order intake. our electrification business had a really great end to the year with 16% growth. taking out data center growth, the rest of the business is still 10% growth. that means data center is booming, that's correct, but even the rest of the whole electrification of everything is driving the momentum of the company today. data center is like a turbocharger on the growth but the underlying foundation is very much there. the world is continuing to go electric. tom: the trump administration looking to dismantle parts of the inflation reduction act. do you change how you think about the u.s. market? morten: we are going to see continued strong investment in the united states. it is one of the growth market over the last years and we believe that for the coming years. because you will see the need of improved infrastructure in the united states. that is not going to change with ira. maybe some investment will be

transferred to other parts, but we will see when it comes to more energy, that means -- we will continue to see strong investment in the solar space. when i talk with utility customers in united states, and you will see more liquid gas and pipelines, which again, where electrification and automation is needed to make all that happen. that doesn't really change. tom: morten wierod, ceo of abb, thank you for joining us after the order numbers jumped in the last quarter, and projecting a decent picture ahead in terms of the demand outlook for electrification and robotics turning around. deutsche bank fixed income traders close out last year with the best fourth quarter on record as they benefited from volatility tied to u.s. elections and turbulence in european politics. deutsche bank's cfo spoke to oliver crook. >> all the businesses were up rates, credit, effects and emerging markets.

really broad-based strength in a market where there was a lot of movement frankly. the geopolitical events, shifts in economic tides, rate changes all those things were playing through. the first few weeks of the year have demonstrated a continuation of those trends for the fourth quarter. so we are encouraged by that. what you're seeing is in the markets a fair amount of trading given how much the news flow affects markets on a day by day basis. but also, a degree of confidence now in corporate board rooms with financial sponsors to position for activity this year. given a rate declined, we're in the part of the rate cycle where money is becoming less expensive. but also, more confidence about the growth prospects particularly in the united states but not only. >> some of your competitors did very well in fic, goldman sachs

and morgan stanley up 35%, are you at risk of falling behind? how you build out that structure to continue to grow at that pace? >> we have been investing steadily and continuously. what you are seeing is a steady recovery or gaining of market share. we have investment that are still to come on stream in 2025. no reason we should change that trajectory. one quirk of it, if you look at the two-year performance, you get a good sense of gained market share and sustained in 24, so we're encouraged by what we see in our fic business. >> you have the figure for buybacks. >> it may spill into volume in the third quarter. 750 million of a buyback, 2.1 billion of total distributions announced today. >> 20 looking at in the back

half of the year. he said that large target of 8 billion in 2025. >> will always be prude and as a management team on distributions and be ready to seek another buyback when we can see where we are operating through the year. there are some good reasons, we think, to have received the 750 million. crr 3 is new, economy is uncertain, impact of tariffs on germany, so some reasons to hold back but we think at 13.8 of common equity tier one ratio and with our outlook of earnings and performance this year, we think we will be in a comfortable place by the end of the year. >> what got my attention in the numbers was the cost income ratio this year. a bit higher than anticipated this by -- despite costs staying steady. >> two things are going on. one is very high nonoperating costs this year. we are unhappy about that level,

altogether, about 2.6 billion of nonoperating costs of which 2 billion had to do with litigation matters. three items where the largest part of that. that is something we're not happy with. tom: deutsche bank cfo james von moltke speaking to bloomberg's oliver crook on the back of those earnings. plenty more, coming up, we will set you up for the apple earnings story. that later today out of the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: from the fed to the ecb decision and what a different set of circumstances. look at the data on the european growth picture. french gdp coming in below estimates. here is a reminder of how soft the growth picture is in europe and the challenges for the ecb.

the most recent print. this is september of last year and a lackluster 0.4%. the estimates are flat broke in europe through 2025. they are expected to cut by 25 basis points. let's have a look at how the european stock performance is diverging from the macro. in terms of momentum, the trade is there for european stocks, another record yesterday and the momentum in terms of relative strength index and the spread when it comes to the stoxx 600 versus the s&p, is now in positive territory. the momentum seems to be in european stocks, why less exposure to technology that has been hit this week. maybe the lack of tech is helping european stocks at least so far. let's flip the board and have a look at tech when it comes to apple. the downgrade coming through. there were concerns about sales were in the chinese market and the ai play and whether apple is doing enough to entice customers

with artificial intelligence. this is the stock price on the white line, the blue line is the number of downgrades, they have had the fifth downgrade just this month, the latest one coming through from oppenheimer on those concerns. those earnings dropping later today. it is a busy day for european earnings. we will speak about the latest results, as well as interviews with leaders of roche, caixabank , bbva and shell. we will bring an interview with u.k. chancellor rachel reeves at 8:50 a.m. london time. "the opening trade" is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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anna: an hour away from the opening trade, here's what you need to know. deutsche bank sees a more profitable 2020 five while bbva announces a buyback program.