tv Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg February 6, 2025 11:00am-12:00pm EST
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>> from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide in silicon valley and beyond. this is bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: live from new york, i am caroline head. jackie: and i am instance for -- san francisco. caroline: shares are down after a conservative forecast. we get the take on the strength of smartphone and ai demand. roblox shares slumped after users and engagement slide. and the ceo of vanguard discusses the reckoner -- the record fee cuts for dozens of mutual funds.
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first we look at the broader markets and we are wobbling around gains and losses. we are up about .10%. there are big moves. nvidia on points upside and on the downside we are anxious about tesla. we move on to see what the individual moves are. qualcomm up by 4.8% and one of the biggest rags to the draft -- to the downside. they have beaten earnings and forecast that outlook for the smartphones outlook is where it has investor anxiety. that smartphone anxiety feeds into a little bit into arm holdings, a key chip designer. they beat the street on earnings and earnings-per-share. you look at revenue dialing up almost 20% but it is a conservative forecast and what this means not only for smartphones but ai demand as well. we have to get to that with renee who joins us now.
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i put it to you, you have been out everywhere with deals being done with softbank and openai. what about the forecast and what it signals for the business. is that you just being conservative of a newly public company? >> i appreciate you having it on. i do not know if i agree with the dialogue muted forecast. we be projections for q3 and we raised guidance for q4 and for the year. we are looking at about $4 billion of annual revenue, which is about 25% increase. so we are super happy with the trajectory of the business and performance. caroline: maybe investors are too exuberant around the fact that you said the computer platform will help openai and softbank make good. the optimism around the ai future as well as how integral you are to smartphones.
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is it that? are people too excited? rene: i try to decouple what the market is saying about results and talk about results in general with which we are incredibly pleased by. we are seeing extremely strong demand across the board. we had record royalties and were up 23% year on year. our version nine subsystems which drive rates were just growing faster than the market, which is what we told investors when we went public year-and-a-half ago. so, yes, we are not seeing any slowdown demand but an acceleration, particularly driven by artificial intelligence. jackie: speaking of future growth, one of the things that arm is baking on is the high-profile partnership is stargate. you are a big player in that. what can investors expect this year to gain from the venture? rene: broadly speaking, the way
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we think about stargate is that it is an infrastructure project unlike any other. $500 billion and 100 billion dollars was spent initially to build out the largest ai data centers for training. we are the key technology partner around cpu and the only cpu technology partner named which is terrific for us. one can imagine going forward a lot of opportunity for technology innovation. in the near term we are linked with the grace-blackwell shift . but these large frontier models will require a huge amount of power and we are so excited about being involved. it will be fantastic. jackie: at the same time this project puts you in the middle of this u.s.-china tech rivalry. you are at the frontlines being the top supplier to american ai
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companies. i am curious if you think that tying your fortunes so closely to openai is a risk? rene: openai is a fantastic partner. arguably, they are the leader at the moment in terms of chatgpt and the api and enterprise suite. we work with everyone and we work closely with google and meta and aws and all of the partners. we are thrilled to be involved with openai. caroline: we are going to lean into that china and u.s. story. deepseek, extraordinary. the push and pull. could you explain as to whether you think we are going to need as much compute as we all foresaw? rene: unquestionably. i think that even more than we thought about. so why is that? if you look at what deepseek has done, which is an amazing piece of work. they have done distillation,
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which is building on top of an existing frontier model which takes lots of power and lots of compute to generate. if you think about gpt four which was hundreds of megawatts, six through seven are in the gigawatts. even though you might have models that can distill or build frontier models, the frontier models need a lot of power. with that, that drives a huge demand for inference where the large use loads are. and more efficient inference means that you can drive ai to smaller devices and smartphones, earbuds, devices that do not have a lot of capability for power. it is great for arm because that is where we are today and now you can run those workloads on a cpu. actually what deepseek proves is that we will see a more accelerated towards compute. jackie: on that front, you have a significant business in china. are you concerned about perhaps
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how the slowing smartphone business might affect arm's future growth? rene: that is a great question and what we have seen in smartphones which are a single digit type of growth, we are in the double digits in terms of royalties and in some cases, 20%. why is that? we are putting more technologies into the phones. compute subsystems drive higher royalty rates. we are growing faster in the market and premium segment which requires more and more compute. while the units have been slowed it has not impacted us much. look at our record royalties that have this number in a market where people think things are slowing down, phenomenal. caroline: i want to get to the litigation briefly. perhaps it has not gone the way it thought with qualcomm. what does it mean for future earnings? rene: really there is no impact. the trial was a mistrial on one of the verdicts so the dispute
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is still open. to your question in terms of future forecasts, no impact whatsoever. jackie: the ceo of arm, thank you for joining us. coming up, more with tech earnings with wealth enhancement group. caroline: let us have a quick check on the earnings we have had on deck. peloton is one of them. revenue is down but profitability is better. a new management team managed to lift the optimism, 14% higher trading at $8.68. this is bloomberg technology. ♪
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jackie: back to earnings with roblox, and reporting daily active users falling shorts of estimates. let us bring in cecelia to break down the numbers. break it down, want -- what went wrong that ultimately spooked investors? cecelia: after many quarters of growth reported a disappointing decline in hounding people are accessing the platform in the last quarter. and in an earnings call the chief financial officer partially attributed the decline to the ban in turkiye over child safety. caroline: what is interesting is child safety affecting turkiye. but it was not too long ago that roblox at -- was accused of inflating numbers and tie -- and time planed so any hint of that? cecelia: a lot of analysts have cast doubts about user number
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inflation and i do not have anything original to report. but roblox's growth has been consistent for a long time. people are disappointed by these results. jackie: cecelia, what is competition looking like in this space? cecelia: sure. right now growth in the games industry broadly is very challenged. the cost of developing aaa games, spider-man, overwatch is skyrocketing. at the same time a lot of investors are seeing a lot of potential in user generated games like once created on roblox. they are created by amateurs or small teams using tools at the companies themselves provide. epic games has its own platform along this lines as well. caroline: some of them get sold for an awful lot of money. it was great to have you and thank you for running us through roblox. we have the manager of the wealth enhancement group with us
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and there has been so much to digest. one theme running through is ai anxiety and smartphone anxiety. i want to bring up with what we are seeing in qualcomm and we worry about smartphones flatlining. what do you make of it? i know you do not hold it, but what would you make of the read across? >> in terms of the overall ai environment. i think we are focused on the short-term and long-term. in the short term for companies like qualcomm, we are really into her -- impacted by the handset slowdown. i think if you look out longer-term in where they are going to play it is in that inference side or where the chips will be able to be in smaller devices as the arm ceo talked about. and things like the new form factors like the ray-ban glasses. these will be where qualcomm
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might have additional exposure to which -- exposure which is a positive. caroline: the best points contributor to the day is nvidia and there is a note saying actually these moves and this less compute will win out for them from him for his perspective. where have you come out for this all divide where company should be spending a lot on ai infrastructure? ayako: i think the arms race is on and that most companies are going to spend in order to make sure that they have all of the primary models set and all of the frontier models that are not talked about. and then how best to access all of the efficiencies that deepseek brought, and how they are going to be explored by many companies. i think there are a lot of ways to play ai, and we are still trying to figure out what the landscape will look like and it is accelerating. it is moving quickly you know every month there is something
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new. jackie: we have already seen mixed numbers coming from the hyper scalars, alphabet and microsoft. what are you expecting when amazon reports later today? ayako: i think everybody has focused on what the capex guide might be and the color commentary on capex. everyone is looking at the capex trajectory to see is everybody getting that return on that span. but, i think the demand for cloud computing continues to increase. so it makes sense from a long-term perspective to continue to spend on increasing capacity in the cloud. jackie: speaking of demand, one of the things that surprised me about alphabet cloud is that it had a good chunk of business coming from smaller and more nimble startups. with some of the numbers i am curious if you are thinking that that kind of demand and vector of growth has run its course?
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ayako: i do not think so. i think ai is still relatively new and there will be new innovative players that will want to access that ai platform through google or through microsoft or aws. i think there will be different companies that explore different platforms just to see what is best for them. caroline: what is so interesting is that amazon has been making its own chips. and so to alphabet, even though the shares on the earnings, broadcom sword because of -- soared because of the cloud computing companies. what do you make of getting into the vertically ai focus? ayako: in terms of the overall spend, i think that it will just continue, that spend going to a lot of these chipmakers.
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so whether it is nvidia or broadcom, eventually it will come to qualcomm as well. i think it will continue. there are so many ways to access ai and build it out. i think it will continue to develop over the long-term. caroline: the thing that everyone is trying to wrestle with his evaluations. with all of this optimism in these trades above future earnings, maybe that is why it pulls back on what the market say are slightly muted forecasts. what do you make of the valuation levels? ayako: i think that is why qualcomm's valuation is interesting. it is still in the me -- midteens and low double digits. if you look out far enough you will see that there is potentially a lot more growth for qualcomm in the future. however, you have to look at valuations in the near term. nvidia trades at high valuations as well. if the buildout continues and if
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you are really going to need to continue to spend so much both broadcom and nvidia, probably the earnings will grow and catch up with the multiple. jackie: from the wealth enhancement group, thank you for joining us. coming up, but white house says that elon musk will police his own conflicts of interest. more details on this next. ♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management.
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caroline: elon musk who leads the government cost-cutting efforts will determine himself if there are conflicts of interest between his work reviewing federal spending and his over lacking -- overlapping empire of six companies according to the white house. let us bring max. so he is going to be his own policeman.
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max: while this is news because we have been wondering what is the plan. he has six companies, he is somebody who's an buyer -- whose empire is rife with conflicts of interest. and we are learning they are not going to handle it. they are going to let him use his judgment which i think with the plan all along. even listening to things that president trump said when he was on the campaign trail made it clear that part of the point is the fact that elon musk has a conflict of interest. he talked about mars, that is a thing that would necessarily involve some of elon musk's companies. we are sort of learning something that i think was pretty clear but we did not know for sure. jackie: i want to talk about the tech because elon musk has said that he wants to use ai to use cost savings and he is already mining through medicare and medicaid data. we know if this is something that he could use his own company xai to do?
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max: we do not know what software they are using. it would not surprise me if he was using a modified version of grok or some software that he has developed or it is somehow associated with another one of his companies. musk has done this all the time. spacex engineers are shuttled into twitter. we are seeing people from his business empire now attached in various ways to the doge effort. and that raises interesting questions. where is the data being stored? are they taking the proper precautions? we have definitely seen critics including employees and government employees as well as some of their unions raising questions about it saying basically is elon musk taking enough care of our private data? caroline: i wonder if investors are wondering if they are taking enough care of his you do share a responsibility to tesla which is down almost 10% on the be
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getting the year. trading the lowest since december and you have byd announcing that it is getting into autonomous vehicles. max: two things are true. elon musk is for sure distracted. i understand that he has an endless amount of attention span and is able to be good at video games while running six companies. he has spent a ton of time in washington and has been parked in recent weeks. he is tweeting all day and all night about doge. in that sense you might say that he has really distracted and is taking his eye off the ball. on the other hand there are clear ways that his companies can benefit from this partnership. i think most investors understand that. if you click -- if you turn back the clock to november you will see that the stock is way up. so i think, some of the enthusiasm and the sense that this trump trade is like a homerun has worn off, although there are still people who see
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it as beneficial to musk and his companies. jackie: that is max. thank you for joining us. today's tech and depth newsletter looks at two different approaches on defense and war in europe. mark has more. how are these conversations different in defense technology between the u.s. and europe? mark: i was short -- we saw a really interesting higher from andrieson. they hired daniel penny who is the most famous as he was involved in the choking incident on the subway and cleared of homicide that became this cause celebre. he did not have a track record but we sought vice president jd vance tweet about the excitement. it is a signal for that firm, which has been leading the vanguard of the american dynamism that they are leaning
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in on a new era of reforming the pentagon and the proximity between the pentagon and silicon valley. in many ways this is something that is very different between what is operated in the past where they did not really think about global borders. caroline: it is interesting, catherine leading over that and they are leaning into the defense science. they are looking at nuclear security. what is interesting is the last time a 16 c was pulling out of london. what does that mean in terms of bringing this across the atlantic? mark: they shut down their office, there first and only outside of the u.s.. that was a crypto investing arm. they are making some investments in europe and they have not made investments on the defense side. where you have seen others like general catalyst and sequoia has been looking.
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general catalyst has been aggressive in defense in europe. europe is in the middle of this war with russia. you go to these events in europe and you hear constantly about russia and the need to defend itself. and then you have events in the u.s. and the focus has been shifted to china and taiwan. caroline: palantir's sales were lower. it is great to have you. go read his in depth newsletter. you can subscribe at bloomberg.com/newsletters. we will be joined by the vanguard ceo. with the company's record fee cuts. this is bloomberg technology. ♪
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caroline: welcome back to bloomberg technology. the vanguard has slashed fees for dozens of mutual funds and etf's in a record move that sent a shockwave through the asset management industry. the reduction is the largest vanguard has ever undertaken. for the impact on blackrock and invest -- invesco, katie greifeld is standing by. >> we welcome audiences worldwide. we are joined by vanguard ceo salim ramji in exclusive conversation. we saw the ripple effects and your average fee now is just seven basis point across your lineup.
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the industry averages 44 basis points why now? >> monday was a pretty joyous day here vanguard because it really is a reaffirmation of our business model. we are owned by our clients, so as a result, as we gain scaled economies at the company we share those with our clients that has not just been true since monday. it has been true since 1975 when we founded the company, so this was continuing on a 2000 price cuts. now it is 2168 price cuts and that has been part of the proposition investors have with vanguard for decades. katie: i think i'm asking a part of your competitors and investors. how low can fees go? you are at seven basis points
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now. where floor? salim: we do not price products as loss leaders. we are not looking to price abnormally low to get someone to buy at a higher cost another service, so we look at it across the board in terms of our scale economies. we want to deliver great quality and performance and the thing that sometimes gets lost in the mix, index prices have been coming down for some time, led by us, but sometimes it gets confused that we are all about index. we are actually about active and index. if you go back, it was against high fees, so active management at a low fee can outperform over the long-term if delivered with the right quality. that was the hypothesis in the
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1970's and 1980's. if you look at our track record, even in active fixed income, and peer clavin and spac's the hypothesis he had back then. 91% of our active fixed income outperforms its peers over the past 10 years and one of the reasons why is because we price it at just over 10 basis points, so at a low fee. speak to our fixed income team and our teams who run our active fixed income for the reason they are able to perform. they have a lower headwind, so they are able to take risks in a more disciplined way. with this is about is not just delivering high-quality index management but levering high quality investment management at a low fee. whether you are looking at active fixed income, index equities, that is what we have
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been about. katie: a lot of people probably think of vanguard and do not think of active and you have active funds out there. it is a small percentage of your overall lineup when you look at the etf side of things. should we expect to see more active launches from you? >> the first vanguard funds were active funds, if you go back to the 1970's. those we manage our active fixed income within vanguard. we have a range of partners that we work with for fundamental active equities and they are unified by the principle of being high-quality at a low price and you have seen us doing more in active etf's. you have seen that pickup over the past several months and i expect that will continue this year and next year.
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>> you were talking about how the ownership structure works advent guard, how a lot of the extra assets you generate are funneled toward these cuts, but from where you said, how do you balance lowering fees versus investing in the business? what does that decision tree look like? salim: it is something we do carefully. this week is about our fee cuts and giving back to our clients. we have also stepped up our investments in things like technology. that is something that began 2, 3 years ago and is continuing this year and next year because we are always trying to balance aching sure that we have high-quality products at a low cost and that we are delivering the right level of service to clients, investing in newer technologies to make our investing more efficient and client interfaces more efficient.
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it is a balancing act in terms of how we think for the near term and the medium to longer term. one of the beauties of vanguard is that when we have a surplus after we have looked at the investments we need to look -- make back and things like technology, the way we get back to our owners is through lowered fees and that is the vanguard effect you have been seeing for decades across the company. katie: obviously a good news story for your investors, maybe not for your competitors. i want to talk about the future and private markets. one of the big stories on the terminal now is about pimco and fears it might be falling behind because you look at the industry now and a lot of your peers have invested heavily in privates to scale up. what is your plan when it comes to those areas and do you fear
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you are behind now? >> one of the great benefits of our business model, if you go back to the origin, we had some advisors. at our beginning, we were advised by wellington management , which is still our largest sub advisor today, so where we do not have capabilities in vanguard we have long had ability to partner with other firms. we have generally done that in fundamental active equities, but we can do it in things like private markets and there are discussions and expirations underway to see what is possible but our northstar is about what is right for our clients and making sure whatever it is we do in active and index ourselves or with others about that we keep in mind we are about simplicity, low cost, and long-term returns.
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i think there are constructs that will allow private markets to fit in that, but that is part of the exploration we are doing. whatever we do, we want to do the vanguard way, in a way well suited to our client base, which is looking to us for a certain set of things we have consistently delivered. katie: really appreciate you taking the time. that is vanguard ceo salim ramji . caroline: we get a quick check on these markets. let's dig into what is happening in technology. the nasdaq cleaning -- clinging onto gains as may be jp morgan says maybe these open-source models are not as bad as we thought. and qualcomm, a significant drawdown, off almost 5%, the worst day since november 20 for the stock even as they managed to beat expectations in earnings
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. we are worried about the future of the smartphone market, twitch qualcomm is exposed. we see issues around iphone representing its business more broadly and they are having to reduce content loss at the moment, iphone content loss off by 24%. >> as demand for china's deepseek and other open-source ai models skyrockets, national security concerns emerge. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the rise of ai chatbots and what they can bring to productivity is spurring enthusiasm across global industries. here's what he had to say about utilizing ai in the workforce. >> i think programming jobs are not out the door. i think there is human application. i think there is also human application. the fact that you have a medical assistant that can help you with something or a coach does not mean you do not want a human coach. it is more coaches than ever. >> with the rise of ai chatbots, deepseek is having to restrict access to its models as demand overwhelms server capacity. more on the future of tech competition with china. we are joined by ben harburg.
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we know you oversee and etf, so we are here for all of your expertise. was deepseek a sputnik moment? >> it challenged the hubris of american ai leadership and we already saw the chinese taking market share when it came to next-generation technologies, electric vehicles, drones. this was really the last holdout, so we need to now put our foot on the gas and re-examine our own capabilities and how we continue to lead. >> what is the starting point here? what should companies be focused on in the wake of deepseek? we are hearing talk about expanding infrastructure. you saw openai unveiled new models after the news hit. what should be this -- the focus for a startups? >> it is great for competition
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and american innovation. i hope we use this as a motivator. obviously ai is a discipline that requires collaboration across energy, talent technology, regulatory availability, and the open-source nature of models, so my view is this has to be a whole country effort. we should look at this as a manhattan project 2.0 and i think the new trump administration is looking hard at the regulatory front and how we stimulate that. on the energy front, you have heard this $100 billion number on openai and others, so i think we need to bring those together to put our foot on the gas. >> you were heavily involved in the trump campaign. are they asking you for advice? >> i have done my best. i believe we need to put our foot on the gas when it comes to extending american technology leadership. that is a process that requires
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we bring together immigration, energy, rethinking education, permitting, regulatory reform. my advice to them has to be draw these walls of bureaucracy and instead get interdisciplinary working groups together. we don't just need ai and crypto. we need shipbuilding, etc.. >> what is so interesting about the greater china growth etf -- the tagline is accessing china alpha without compromising ai -- american national security or values. how do you investment suddenly news of having autonomous vehicles sends tesla shares down? >> we preempted the market a bit with america first equities investing. we knew one of the things scaring them away from china was a fear they might be investing
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in companies that would show up on a blacklist. we identified their biggest competitor was owned by an asset manager of the chinese government, so we determined we could be american owned so we would not have influence from the chinese government and look at what is coming out of congress and the treasury and commerce in terms of gray lists and go further and bring in further government officials to make sure they were not compromising american national security or values, so working with organizations involved in some form of anti-american values. >> let's stick with your point about access to china. do you expect the ministration to take a tougher stance on curtailing ability to invest in chinese companies? >> i think it will. they call it the overseas investment program. i think the program needs to be expanded and made more concrete.
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over the biden administration, it was more of a reporting mechanism. i believe american money should be used to develop american innovation, so to the extent that we can keep money at home and use it to build the next generation of ai and electric vehicles and drone companies and military defense, that is a critical use of that capital so i hope to see that program made more concrete and expanded. i think china and the united states will be in better collaboration when it comes to day-to-day business dynamics because a lot of the fears that were getting in the way during the last administration are no longer there. >> sticking with policy, immigration visas are also up in the air as it relates to ai. ai depends a lot on those two things to fuel its pipeline of talent. what if this talent is coming
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from outside the u.s.? do you think the administration's position could undermine our efforts to stay ahead in ai? >> the president reaffirmed his commitment to the program. we need to look at that as a stopgap. one of america's greatest advantages as we attracted the best minds to our shores, but education needs to be reformed and we need to look at the german model of trade schools where we slit kids off earlier and send them to trade schools where they can learn tooling and mechanic type roles that can be brought to bear in these next generation technologies. i think we need to look deeply at education as a whole and not just rely on foreign talent but think about how we train american born citizens. caroline: when you are saying you foresaw almost this america first idea of investing, you
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understood what was potentially going to end up on a gray list for blacklist, but tencent was put on a blacklist. do sometimes we throw babies out with bathwater when we are looking at what is really a chinese military challenge to the united states? >> there are companies that have a broad array of different alibaba has their own cloud business. some have geospatial and other forms of engineering, so this is a constantly evolving process and why we think you need active management. we have to be able to move in and out as we see things coming out of dod, congress, etc.. >> you might have been exposed to this was something you were depending on for e-commerce players in china. are we likely to see barriers put up to chinese trade, even trying to access cheaper goods? >> a tax loophole needed to be
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closed. temu and others are putting american companies out of business, eating their market share. even some of the smaller off-line stores are having market share eaten and building their own fulfilled by amazon model, so we want to have a level playing field so this affects amazon as well. a lot of the impact -- the actual numbers coming out are not necessarily included in projections so our view is it is strong in spite of these new defense regulations. >> thanks for joining us. as china faces new u.s. tariffs, retailers that sell on sites like temu are being asked to start paying a 30% levy as president trump revoked a rule for china which had allowed small packages under $800 to enter the u.s. duty-free.
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vendors receive notifications about the new prices late wednesday, with many retailers now worrying about delays due to extra customs clearing process. >> amazon earnings are out after the bell today. we will discuss that and what to look for. this is bloomberg technology. ♪ susan: where am i headed? am i just gonna take what the markets gives me? no. i can do some research. ya know, that's backed by j.p. morgan's leading strategists like us. when you want to invest with more confidence... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management
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to report earnings and is expected to report that revenue grew 10% in the fourth quarter. aws is the cloud computing tighten -- titatn >> it come in the wake of disappointment from microsofn. lien up going into these results. >> they likely committed more than $70 billion in capex this year and even more going forward. are we comfortable with the spending on ai? >> we have seen other companies lift their targets, microsoft. these are all major cloud hyperscalers and would not be surprising to see amazon do a similar boost, although some of these were 50% more than we were expecting. it would not be surprising to
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see them bring up their capex some want. >> we were talking about impact on chinese competition to amazon from an e-commerce perspective. when we hear about how it will impact the business and duties on chinese rivals. >> so far we have not seen much reaction to the idea of a trade war or tariffs against china, but to the extent that we see less competition from lower-priced rivals, that is a good thing for amazon and e-commerce market share. caroline: that does it for this edition of bloomberg technology. do not forget to check out our podcast on the terminal as well as online and tune into the earnings after the bell, amazon across the deck. this is bloomberg technology. ♪
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>> let's get>> a quick check on these markets now. it may look relatively harmless with a rally began to fade a little bit. you have the s&p 500 up and the nasdaq 100 just getting to flat, but do not let this fool you. this is a market of rallies and selloffs today. we are seeing plenty of strength in financials and consumer discretionary names. then plenty of sell off as well. some of the tech firms are still rallying. you have the 10 year yield up below that 450 mark. scott bessent is coming up at the top of the hour. we will see if that interview
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