vonnie: welcome to bloomberg markets. let us get a check on the markets. on the face of things not a lot is happening but the s&p 500 is down a little bit. the stocks are moving en masse. we have a lot of earnings ries and the chip stocks blowing as the wind takes them. so the philadelphia semiconductor index about have higher and have lower. we have the 10 year at 4.47 at

the disappointing retail sales data off the back of the delinquencies going up. and a weaker dollar index. if you look at dxy we have a 106 handle on that as well. let us get those individual movers. natalia joins us for some of those. natalia: let us look at soundhound. that is down by almost 30% after nvidia disclosed that it sold shares of voice recognition company. remember last year, a 13f filing showed that it owned $13.7 billion valued at around $800 billion. that is not the case. on a 12 month basis the stock is still up by almost 400%. the next stock i am keeping an eye on is roku. results are positive. it is up by 14% and the outlook is good.

the key takeaway is that the u.s. presidential election drove those results higher and analysts are saying that momentum continues in the first quarter. we also saw some analysts upgrades today. finally, airbnb, the stock is up by 15%. this is the biggest gain since december of 2020. results were strong and the outlook was really optimistic for analysts. and, what is important is that the company sees were every -- recovery in china and asia specifically. it goes in line with companies such as expedia showing that momentum in the travel sector continues. vonnie: exactly and thank you so much. let us continue on the airbnb story with the senior technology analyst, mandeep singh. obviously in the last quarter, consumers were spending for

airlines and experiences and airbnb. given the data starting to come in, can we continue to expect that? mandeep: yes. i think the guidance they gave for the next three months and towards the full year sounded like a key metric for them. that was around the last quarter. and they expect sequential improvements. clearly, the readthrough for all of the travel names is pretty good. in the case of airbnb, they are the player when it comes to alternative accommodations. they are trying to branch into new categories because in the end it is a penetrated market and how many times did you travel in a year? they are looking at newer categories but there is no matt -- no question that it is executing well. vonnie: i can find plenty of opportunities to travel. they will spend 200 to $250 on these new experiences, but do we

know what those smaller businesses are? mandeep: yes. airbnb has that brand when it comes to the direct traffic that comes to their app and people will search for travel. i think what they are looking to do is to layer in other things like car rentals or even flight bookings. similar to booking and expedia. i would not be surprised if they add a newer category. the biggest advantage that airbnb has is the brand and the loyalty that the younger demographic has. vonnie: how important is the recovery of outbound travel from china. we saw some of it last quarter and doesn't need to continue? mandeep: airbnb is exposed to international travel in a big way. it is more than half of their business. but, i feel that they are very

well diversified when it comes to the city exposure, not even one city makes up more than 3% of their booking. from that perspective, i feel they are diversified. but if international travel is doing well that will add to their bottom line. vonnie: there share price is receiving the benefits. meta-is planning a major investment into ai powered humanoid robots. are we looking at a blade runner 2041 situation, and is this really know? mandeep: i think what mehta is doing is too investors a feel for what the reality lab spending is doing. they are losing $20 million a year on that segment but they are saying it is not just for ar or vr. you can apply the same level of investment to a new factor like humanoid. given the advances that we have

seen with large language models, i feel like humanoid could be that next market when it comes to consumer devices. it makes sense for them to get into the market although they have not had a lot of sense with hardware. vonnie: we know that they are all trying this out like driverless cars or what have you. is there more in the future for a humanoid robot given that things we have had trying to resemble them? mandeep: it is now at genai, now that you have a model that can reason and can be condensed, can you run it on your device, whether it is on your phone or in a robotics area where it can do more things. obviously, the price point will be higher. all of these companies want to

control the system from hardware to operating system. meta-does not want to rely on apple or android echo system. -- ecosystem. vonnie: thank you so much. that is mandeep singh. coming up, moderna reporting its earnings and another loss. let shares are up more than 3% in the session. it fetched -- it faces a changing policy landscape in washington. we will break it down. this is bloomberg. ♪

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vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. it is time for the stock of the hour. moderna is shifting between gains and losses. rising 53% after its fourth quarter report got shifted. vaccine sales wayne as the company had an unexpected charge for a canceled manufacturing contract. furthermore, we are joined by the u.s. biotechnology lead analyst at goldman sachs and has a neutral rating on moderna. we knew that the forecast had been bad. we knew that they slashed by $1 billion. is the market looking positive because the outlook is looking better now? >> i do not know the correlation between the stock reaction and the news that played out today. i think from an earned perspective it was as expected

where the street wants to see some changes on the up o -- op ex front. but on the pipeline front there were two points of news flow. one is that the norovirus vaccine was put on hold and that there is a delay possible with the flu and covid combo vaccine. i think the street was trying to basically adapt to all of the news flow. vonnie: moderna has a difficult time given that it is a vaccine business and we have a new hh secretary. i am curious to your thoughts of what we will see vaccine wise? salveen: we have heard commentary publicly but we do not know where the changes well, or if they will come. we think that there is probably limited change her vaccines currently on the market. i think where we will have to

watch and see is what plays out with asip, the regulatory body that makes to seasons -- decisions on vaccines for the forward development and commentary. vonnie: just let me play a little bit of sound from robert f. kennedy, jr. and president donald trump yesterday as he was obviously being confirmed. sec. kennedy: you are that figure. >> i will establish the president's commission to make america healthy again. we have some great people on the commission, chaired by the new secretary. this groundbreaking commission will be charged with investigating what is causing the decades long increase in chronic illness, reporting its findings and delivering an action plan to the american people. vonnie: given everything that we heard yesterday and up until now, is there any reason to suspect that moderna and any

biotechs will receive love from this administration? salveen: there is a lot of uncertainty with regard to health care policy. i assume that as that progresses we will have a better understanding of where the focus might live. as you can see, with the sector you are seeing this volatility getting priced in and i think clarity will be needed. there will be some spots carved out and i think investors will allocate accordingly. vonnie: we have to hear from biogen and so on. but there are other earnings that have sort of been encountered and passed through. what is your outlook more broadly for the sector? we went from being up 1.2% to 6% this week. salveen: i think with regard to the sector we have the health care policy uncertainty and what people are looking at is numbers. the ability here to demonstrate growth through the end of the

decade, whether this is driven by the fact of new product cycles playing out with the companies or there is the ability to offset losses of exclusivity or ip dynamics. so, based on that we are generally positive on certain names and there are others where we feel that they are going to have to better explain their strategy. and i think it is a very much stop rocher -- stop rocher's market. vonnie: if you are trying to figure out if you are trying to do a deal in this space, is this something where you need to wait and see what will emerge policy wise? salveen: it depends on which disease area or which company you are looking to acquire. there are some that are carved out and some with uncertainty. and then you have clearly had volatility with stock prices moving. and that could lead to some dynamic.

i think that the companies will just have to figure out what they are solving for themselves, based on where their leverage areas are and product dynamics. it is clearly a difficult task, and we believe that m&a is required to sustain growth for many of these large companies. vonnie: it will be a fascinating year and we hope to speak to you many times. that is the u.s. biotechnology lead analyst at goldman sachs. coming up are serious the next big risk focusing on private markets where friends and trends like aging populations are beginning to present warning flags. we get into that with hps investing partner purnima. this is bloomberg. ♪

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vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. now time for our series called big risk which focuses on how major investors are navigating current risks from political tensions to tariffs. we focus on the booming pride it -- private credit industry. we caught up to learn what concerns her right now. purnima: vague risk is growth and within growth potentially a labor shortage and maybe that is an underage -- underappreciated risk. aging population coupled with declining fertility rates makes for a shrinking workforce. a shrinking workforce makes for potentially lower growth or more reliance on productivity. aging population, declining fertility are really big -- components to organic population growth. that keeps me up at night

because growth is population growth and productivity. that is organic birth plus immigration or migration plus productivity. depending on where we land on immigration, that could be an underappreciated risk in terms of this contribution to how the economy has grown. sonali: do you worry about the ability of the u.s. to be productive enough to feel the gap? purnima: you have a spend problem and that the aging population puts more pressure on what is needed to support that population over the long period that we are looking at. and so, i worry about that. we have been tracking and high productivity since the end of 2023. and that is more than most other countries also. but, if you look at numbers over time and mckinsey came out with this report, between 2012 and

2023 productivity is sub 1% and we need to get to sub 2% to maintain where we are. the underappreciated risk issue is that you are putting a lot of reliance on productivity and it feels like we are in the right direction and it feels like there are a lot of variables that upset the mix. sonali: it seems like if you have an aging population and there is so much of the existing u.s. budget that goes toward supporting that then how much of a problem is it that you do not have the fertility rates to support that growth rate. purnima: let us pretend you get fertility rates from 1.66 to 2.1 today. it will take 20 years. it takes a long time for that to be the lever. i go back to the simple math which is, population press productivity equals growth. and then if you double-click the population and say that population is organic population plus migration.

you do have a lever that could be helpful between now and then. ultimately, the numbers that i have seen and these numbers are low over the place. the numbers i have seen is that the aging issue is pulling roughly 500,000 people out of the workforce and that is a drag of to 20 basis points. you are counting on productivity to make up for increased expenditures plus a lower workforce. and then it gets into is the real risk labor shortage and how do you plug the gap? sonali: people might be working longer. purnima: people are talking about a mosaic of solutions but there is not one lever. fertility will not solve this because it takes 20 years. cost-cutting will not solve it because you are working within a band of what you can do so you will do all of it where it could potentially have a lot of countries putting incentives in place for infertility is and

birth. a lot of countries have put in incentives for childhood education and retraining. there are a lot of countries trying to move the retirement age. ultimately, people over 65 still consume a lot. the other problem is a lot of people need a lot of money in the markets and in rising asset prices. and they made a lot of money and that helped a lot to support 65 and on when you are not receiving a paycheck. there has been a lot of shifts in the way it works. when you look back to the higher rate environment, do we increase 401(k) contributions in order to help incensed people to save more and have more when they are coming out on the other end and they need it for longer. we need more alternatives for people to invest in order to support this longevity. vonnie: what about the diagnosis. if that is worries about growth rates, how do you get from point

a to point b? why do you worry so much about the end goal of better growth? purnima: if we cannot grow we will have a much more inflated debt to gdp the federal deficit which is not good for the federal economy. you have a lot of burden put in another generation which will create a lot of social strife. and so, growth is critical. and i think what is underappreciated is what the inputs are to get to the growth number. and we talked a little bit about productivity and i hope that we can continue to produce at 2% indefinitely. that would be great. but, you have to make sure you have the other levers in place. vonnie: for more on this we are joined live. thank you for joining. this is something we have talked to about with japan and china. we have heard a little bit about

it with relating to the u.s.. should we be alarmed? sonali: she did not mention that you hear from some investors who worry about an eventual long time -- long term japanification of the u.s.. it is not a reality but a risk. the whole idea that you do not have fertility rates keeping up with an aging population. a few problems is that it creates a strain on the social safety nets. it is a lot of money from the u.s. government to support an aging population with not enough of a labor force coming in and immigration under pressure. so living through some of these realities reminds me a lot. a lot of private credit and credit investors are investing often for longer-term maturities. so katie, the ceo of tcw did this project and her biggest risk of -- was silver tsunami. you are worried about the

long-term growth trajectory and the strain that an aging population puts on an investor, savers and on the u.s. debt load as a lot of money goes from the u.s. government to support that. vonnie: even one or two more years makes a difference. what is the answer when you are not the person who can control the birth or death rate or what happens with social security. you have to up your returns. sonali: there're been so many levers. immigration is a big topic up for debate. another part of that is also the idea of lengthening the retirement age and that is another one that is a super hot button issue and highly debated because what jobs does not work or not work for. there are some potential sections but they are hoping that productivity caused by ai will save the day. it is unclear if that will be the case. vonnie: productivity multiplied by ai equals a solution.

when can we expect to see the next big risk? sonali: on bloomberg.com and the bloomberg terminal. right now. we do it twice a year and this is one of my favorite episodes. vonnie: that does it for bloomberg markets. balance is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power." ♪

live from washington, d.c. joe: the ukraine talks are underway. welcome to the fastest show in politics. jd vance meets with volodymyr zelenskyy today at the munich security conference after threatening sanctions and military action against russia if no deal is struck. an update on munich from bloomberg's tyler kendall with insights from michael allen. is also has his eyes on a critical deadline set for tomorrow at high noon in gaza. analysis from our signature panel, rick davis and jeanne sheehan zaino for the hour. thank you for being with us on this friday edition. we start with a look at wall street on the markets. amy morris? amy: retail sales phallic -- fell more than expected.