>> welcome to bloomberg markets. i am sonali basak. these markets are struggling to hold onto gains. you have the s&p 500 put much flat, wavering between losses and gains. -- pretty much flat, wavering between losses and gains. the due yields at 4.3% just under the level. the 10 year yield hanging out at over 4.5% to start the week.

if i've basis -- a five basis point move higher. >> microcomputer up 10% right now and it is up over 34% over the last four days since it gave an updated revenue outlook that shareholders saw as aggressive in the company said it believes it will meet a nasdaq deadline to file audited financial results. the company here is trying to avoid a delisting on the exchange that comes after they failed an auditor report and the auditor resigned. the new deadline to file the report is february 25 and shareholders seem optimistic they will meet that deadline and we are looking at shares of nike, up about 4% on a partnership with kim

kardashian's schemes underwear line. nike and scams are going to be releasing an apparel line of shoes, accessories, and other extensive apparels. that is what kim kardashian and nike said. investors clearly liking this news. no other news for nike except for this partnership with kim kardashian. general mills falling to the lowest level since march 2021 after the cfo unit conference today said that progress in 2025 looks like it is going to be a little bit slow. they noted consumer behaviors looking for promotions and more seeking value and according to bloomberg intelligence, that means sales growth is going to be a risk for the snack company. >> thank you for keeping an eye on those movers for us. last week, we saw price pressures remaining in the cpi and ppi data. when it comes to politics,

president donald trump promised to bring down inflation on day one in office. pres. trump: starting the day i take the oath of office, i will rapidly drive prices down and we will make america affordable again. we are going to make it affordable. >> now that he is in office, donald trump is trying to manage expectations, telling reporters over the weekend, when he saw the inflation numbers, i have been here for the week and i have had nothing to do with this inflation. this was caused by biden. i have four years of virtually no inflation. i am just taking over. it is the topic of a new bloomberg opinion piece. you have a lot of data in this column that i think is worth getting through because it is not just the cpi and ppi data but also the breakevens that are telling you that traders are seeing more ahead in terms of inflation. >> right. the u.s. bond market is $30 trillion. it is a market that tells every other market what to do. his -- it is not ideological. it is complete looking for relative value. what is cheap, what is

expensive, and what it is telling us is for the first time since donald trump was president, said he had covid along with his wife, melania, in october of 2020, the bond market is saying inflation two years out is going to be higher than where inflation is today and we have not seen that since 2020 so you have to go all the way back to donald trump's first term. the entire four years of biden, every single measure in the bond market showed inflation abating two years out. >> so you gave a list in this column that i think is worth keeping attention on because it is everything from potential inflation to tariffs to hints that you point out from trump that the u.s. might not honor its credit. of the pieces on this list, which concerns you the most? >> they are part of one word. chaos. his whole agenda in the past 25 days has been nothing but chaos

and markets actually do not thrive when there's a lot of chaos and that is where we are right now. >> do you think it is the inflation story here or the other parts of his agenda? you talk a little bit about the siphoning of money from certain agencies, for example. we have a budget deadline that is around the plan as well. a lot of investors keeping an eye on the term premium. how big of an issue is simply the budget? >> well, all of these, if you like, policies that have been articulated, all of these events that we have seen are essentially attacking the full faith and credit of the united states and that is why the bond market is reflecting that turmoil. >> 20 think about the full faith and credit of the united states, there are two camps of people. the people that believe that doge will create a significant dent in spending, and the people

who believe that there is no way to make that dent, doge or no doge. >> first of all, the federal workforce is tiny. it is actually smaller than what was 35 years ago when bloomberg news began so the notion that you are going to cut somehow federal workers as a way to trim the deficit is absurd at this point. the only way you can actually trim the deficit significantly is if you raise taxes on the wealthiest americans. that would be billionaires, of course, and that is not where they want to go. >> anything about the components of the bond market, what are the numbers that are most stunning to you based on the reaction we have seen in the early weeks of the administration? >> one of the most proficient users of the bloomberg terminal is my colleague, and what he is able to show us by just using the bloomberg terminal is that in the bond market, if you look

at breakeven rates, but not just for two years, if you look at breakeven rates for the 10 year maturity of securities, you look at breakeven rates for the 30 year maturity, they are all saying the same thing at the same time right now and we have not seen that in quite a long time. we did not see it last year. last year, the bond market was coy assent -- this is a departure from the stability and tranquility that we experienced last year. >> a lot of investors on edge as inflation is a bond market nightmare. the world's most important market sends a warning. that is met when clay. thank you very much. that is bloomberg's editor-in-chief emeritus. for more on markets, we are joined by catherine, chief market strategist at stone next financial. let's talk more about this dynamic.

at some point, that bond market have it has been very volatile under the hood and it will impact stock market performance but at what levels do you think that would happen at more? >> i think if we get some sort of trade war, that would inherently affect multinationals, which are a very high weight in the s&p 500 so a strong dollar, high tariffs, that would certainly affect multinationals but maybe i will add to what your previous guests was talking about. a couple of things. i think there are ways to get deficits in line without -- and i would suggest reforming entitlement programs would be one of those. the u.s. government in terms of federal and state employees is the largest employer in the country so it is pretty relevant. 20 million plus people and i would add a final point which i think is particularly interesting which is a contention is that the u.s. treasury yields are moving higher not because of chaos or donald trump but rather because

i think we are at the end of secular stagnation or this global savings glut. investment now as a percentage of global gdp is the height we have seen. 27%. i think the fiscal past, the bond markets have up to this point -- the -- it has come to an end. the 10 year yield moves higher if we don't get spending under control and if the size of government is not decreased so for that reason, i think that that poses probably the biggest threat to the equity market so tariffs are a threat. we have seen this movie before. tariffs were imposed. far fewer than what he had threatened but we saw in 2018 about an 8% drop in the s&p 500. we could expect a similar occurrence but i would argue that if we have a fiscal deficit, that is even worse than

across-the-board the board tariffs affecting multinationals. >> it is a risk that a lot of people don't understand what the ultimate ripple effect will be. over the weekend, they say that right now, it is not an imminent issue but they say to ask -- ask again if the yield jumps about 5% with widespread fear that it is heading towards 6%. now, that kind of 5% level at least in the near term, there are more and more investors voicing fear around that level. i cannot imagine what six would mean. what would six mean? live look, there's a very good chance -- we are at 4.5 now. we would probably break five somewhere in this year and there is a real threat of 5.5%. if we hit six, in my opinion, we see a meaningful correction in the u.s. equity market because risk premium pales in comparison to what you can get for a risk-free asset. when you're talking about exposure -- i have been 50

trips. when i talked to international clients, it is fascinating. you talk pension funds, inherently risk-averse investors in these guys are long dollar assets come along equities come along tech. they don't want to hear my thoughts on how to protect profits. they want to hear about what is the next big thing? so in my view, there is a big potential for correction and that is why i am recommending investors protect their profits, not liquidate them, because i do think that this year is going to be a good year for the u.s. economy, not a bad one, but protect those positions. there is a lot of interest in private credit and alternatives and that is because the correlation between stocks and bonds has wholesale gone out the window. >> i want to double down on the point you're making because if you look at the performance this year, it has been sluggish at best. you have the nasdaq 100 outperforming what you saw, up

more than 5%, beating out most major indexes but you still have lot of the high flyers in that index flying high through the course of last year, too. palantir is the best does that worry you, the concentration risk? >> there is concentration risk in tech as a sector. i do think there is a risk there especially if we effectively get into a trade war the industrials and tech are the most vulnerable and i will add to that, those can send me. if i'm right and we get a reexam of a potential overheating of the u.s. economy, remember, this is the fourth consecutive year if my estimates are right and the u.s. gross 2.3% or more, this will be the fourth consecutive year of above trend growth with a positive outlook. that is inherently inflationary and the sectors that are most

vulnerable to high rates for the fed having to resume hiking rates is effectively tech so i do think there's opportunities to reallocate assets to potentially underperforming sectors were defensive sectors and if we get pen all boats rise year, you should be in health care and utilities which was my top pick last year in a top-performing trade. i think you should be in staples. more domestically oriented sectors. sonali: thank you so much for your time today. that is catherine with stone next financial. coming up, a new path forward for intel might be set by the white house. shares are trading higher today on reports that the trump administration is seeking a deal that could involve tsmc taking partial ownership. more on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

sonali: this is bloomberg

graseck. -- bloomberg and i am sonali basak. shares are higher on speculation that the u.s. chipmaker could be broken up in a deal involving tsmc or broadcom. we are joined by senior editor michael sheppard, joining us in washington and of course, this story would have a big nod from the white house. if we think about what is possible in terms of what the trump administration facilitates for what is really in a lot of ways national treasure that has been wavering for a long time now, what could they do? >> this is a great an open question right now and really for the past couple of years, you know, the u.s. chipmaking commit domestic making capacity and capability has been a focus of policymakers.

the biden administration pushed through the chips and science asked to give companies like intel a boost to do more production of advanced chips here in the u.s. and for intel at least, that effort has not really born the kind of fruit officials here had hoped for and really by the end of the biden administration, they were also thinking about what can we do about it? when he we are promising to intel is not yielding the kind of results in terms of new outside customers for the company and the investments that the company has to make to be able to regain that kind of preeminence as an iconic maker of semiconductors. it has really struggled, too. one of the options that has surfaced in the trump administration floated this is the tsmc would take a partial stake in the company's manufacturing operations especially here in the u.s. but perhaps also abroad. it's very early stages. the details remain unclear and it's not even clear that president trump would even go

along with it but the idea of tsmc doing something on the manufacturing side would open -- would open the door for broadcom to perhaps make a play for the chip design business that intel also has so lots of movement. investors have been looking for a solution on the intel front and this could be it, coming from washington. >> you had the best week since the 1980's last week and another big rise today. mike sheppard in washington, thank you so much for all of your time. coming up, we are going to switch gears on another big investment area in private markers. that's women's sports. it is attracting big money. our next guest started a fund with a mission to build a meeting women's sports team. we are going to talk to monarch elective, next -- collective, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

sonali: the national women's soccer league has seen team

valuations sort. this comes as women's sports leagues are seeing growing fan bases and more celebrity accolades. we are joined by a leading investor in the space, karen orman, founder of angel city football club and monarch collective, the first investment platform exclusively dedicated to investing in women's sports and it has been very fascinating to see how you have kind of engaged the broader financial community in a lot of ways, too. you have seen more big investors that invested in things like private credit into women's sports. how do you see the investor base changing as you go along and these valuations are showing to be growing? >> the investor base has changed really dramatically in the six years since we started angel city. when we started in 2019, i think we got about 100 different no's from every kind of investor.

as angel city and multiple other teams have shown, you can build real p&l's at the team level. it has been the province of family offices but you are seeing funds and retail investors starting to come into both men's and women's sports. and even since we started monarch two years ago when we were the very first fund with the strategy of this type. >> i want to ask you about the opportunity -- in the u.s., we call it soccer. in europe, football. what can you say about recent reports that are out there about looking to buy a stake in chelsea's women's team? what does it say about your broader ambitions? >> we only speak about the investments we have made. we spent a couple of years in england. reese -- we tend to spend months if not years during the preliminary work in building stakeholder relationships.

we think that is really important in women's sports. it's at the earliest phases and you want to know who you are getting in business with and make sure the fundamentals are right and the like. i would say that football or soccer between the u.s. and europe has become a mature export in the sense that this very predictable ways to build revenue streams a roster team from sponsorship, from merchandise and commerce, from building out an excellent fan experience, so england and europe is right -- ripe for investment so i think you are going to see we only focus on the most mature women's sports so the places where media revenue is very predictable and that tends to be soccer, football in the u.s. and europe, women's basketball in the u.s., golf, tennis, and rugby and cricket which are more international sports. >> what do you think is the most undervalued opportunity right now in women's sports? there's clearly been so much love around both soccer and basketball particularly in the u.s., but what is still unseen,

do you think? >> the places where less people are spending time, the harder places are the places where the commercial market is slightly less developed so that would be european football or soccer and it's hard everywhere. i think that is one thing to keep in mind. if you are buying into an existing men's team, one of the top five needs in the u.s., they usually have real revenues and big staff. most leagues are profitable. in women's sports, it's very operational and hands-on so i would say europe is probably an opportunity where fewer people are set up to thoughtfully spend time and where you have to do the missionary work on the commercial side but it is the biggest and most historic football market in the world and so the trade-offs, you know, are there. you have to spend the time to really build and the reward should be great. >> in less than a minute, you know, they have been a lot of big celebrity athletes and celebrity buyers of these teams. do you think there is anyone in

particular who has rejuvenated interest in these teams? let's look, i think it's really important to recognize that we stood on the shoulders of giants so billie jean king, serena williams, and then i think angel city, the team i cofounded with julie urman and natalie portman was the first team to show that we could build a real income statement and do it with mission at its core. many of the top performing teams in women's soccer and basketball if not most of them have female leadership and ownership and so and the mental goes to the liberty. and just the number, you know, i think every single day to point is important but when angel city became the most valuable women's sports team in the world and we published a suit -- a case study with harvard, it helped the world understand these are real businesses. this is something that can work in multiple places. >> as a tv person, i'm waiting for it with women on the field. >> put it in the air and maybe it will come true.

>> let's make it happen. sonali: you can catch more interviews like this at bloomberg invest. in new york on march 4 and march 5, you will get a front mercy to these conversations with high-profile leaders across the industry and from new york, i am sonali basak and that does it for bloomberg markets. balance of power is next. ♪

>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of power.

live from washington, d.c. >> ukraine talks get underway in saudi arabia. welcome to the fastest show in politics. as marco rubio and 18 from the white house sit down with representatives from russia to try to find an end to the conflict. i am joe mathieu alongside kailey leinz in washington. thanks for being with us on the tuesday edition of balance of power. making this about who is not at the table. kailey: notably not at the talks, ukraine itself and europe. it has a lot at stake in the outcome of whatever peace deal, if one can be negotiated, comes to fruition. we did hear from marco rubio that eventually, ukraine and europe will be involved and i guess it is a question of timing. joe: remembering the refrain in the widen -- right