tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg February 19, 2025 1:00am-2:00am EST
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four days. i'll be speaking with doug from the center of auto research. the debt break among the topics we're diving in to. first, here are the stories. let's set your agenda. president trump says he may meet vladimir putin by the end of the month as the u.s. promises russian sanctions will continue until the war ends. france plans another summit on european security. more trump tariffs. asia's stock rally takes a pause after the u.s. president floats 25% levies of tariffs on cars, chips and pharmaceuticals. europe's beggest bank restructures and current costs of $1.8 billion. let's get to the markets then.
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tom: let's check in on the markets. president trump rekidnapped it will tariff threats potentially coming in as soon as april 2. calls in germany for a euro sector that ships so many calls to the u.s. market. 25% is the number trump is putting out there. we'll see if that is in fact the number and to what extent that is implemented by the trump administration. european features lower after notching another fresh record yesterday. u.s. stocks eking autogains. today s&p futures looking up.1%. we have cpi inflation data out of the u.k. we'll break that data for you in a few hours and the implications for the next steps for the bank o of england.
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modest gains soft in the session. mary daly of the federal reserve saying she is pretty relaxed with rates as they are now. she wants to see more progress on inflation before they move lower. echoing what we heard from chris waller a few days ago. unchanged in the session. the pound in focus, could move on inflation data that moves in an hour's type time. up .1%. hold on these levels. again on expectations, opec plus will push out adding more barrels to the market. gold trading at $2933. just down .%. president trump saying he will probably immediate meath with russia's president putin by the end of the month. they raised the possibility of broader cooperation following a meeting in saudi arabia. marco rubio and sergei lavrov
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promised to have high level teams. this is that is acceptable to all sides. the sanction also stay in place until a peace deal is reached. >> we're going to appoint a high level team to walk through the end of the conflict in ukraine in a way that is enduring and acceptable to all of the parties engaged. the third point is to begin the work at a high level as well. to begin to discuss and think about and examine the geo-political and economic cooperation that could result from an end to the conflict in ukraine. tom: joining us for more is bloomberg's greg sullivan. greg, did the talks make any progress? what was the outcome of this meeting between rubio and sergei lavrov? >> well, they were short on details at the end of the meeting but russian leaders
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quick to hail the talks as a success. the u.s. also seemed to signal that progress was made. of course we heard from president trump he still expects to meet putin possibly as soon as before the end of the month. what we're likely to see next would be progress toward any kind of leader summit and additional contacts. it is important to note that zelenskyy was not at a table and as party to the conflict his input will be essential to any resolution going forward. for now what we have sphreen the u.s. site is talk of potentially sanctions relief at the future but rubio saying it won't happen until a deal is reached. boosting embassy staff which has been dwindling amid the deterioration in relations between the u.s. and russia. those are the main things we have taken away. tom: macron, european leaders looking to host another meeting.
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he held a meeting on monday and seems set to host another meeting on wednesday. what are the details around that convening of european leaders? >> we know a few things. one is that some of the countries that were invited were not present at monday's meeting in paris. they could potentially include canada, the ball ticks, sweden, the czech rep. we know -- the key here one of the biggest obstacles to the peace agreement will be the security guarantees that ukraine receives. europe is -- some european countries are reluctant to send troops. russia sad they don't want to see nato troops. the u.s. has ruled out putting boots on the ground. the question remains how the secure ukraine amid all of these competing interests. europeans are scrambling they are worried that sanctions
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relief was discussed must worry them given they had sought to project a united front with the u.s. and now the u.s. is discussing how sanctions relief ends. and also prioritizing the speed of a deal could be at the expense of european and ukranian security. tom: greg sullivan with the latest on these ongoing talks with the u.s thank you for then co-text. germans of course going to the polls this weekend, on sunday in what could be one of the country's most consequential elections in decades. immigration, a struggling economy and the war in ukraine have dominated a bitter campaign in which the afd party has challenged the concession of modern politics. thank you for taking the time. i want to get your views on what a coalition could look like. what the dicht scenarios are
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that we should consider. on the condition of ukraine, how much support is there to continue backing ukraine in its conflict vs. russia? is the afd tapping into a broader sentiment of disengagement? >> there are two things to the answer. first of all, germans have supported military and financial support for you crane, now over three years. in pretty high numbers. that is not a given after three years of armed conflict and billions of euros flowing into support for you crane. however, there still is a small majority of people who say yes, we need to continue supporting ukraine. now this has remained on that level despite the fact that now two parties are campaigning with rather pro-russian positions. they have created the illusion to a peace deal with putin would
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really mean an end not only the the hot war in ukraine but also the hybrid attacks that europe and germany suffers every day because russia interevening ifs in the society's critical infrastructure cyber war. but inside in the campaign, there were two parties that voiced a pretty illusionry peace narrative, to just agree something with putin and all the aggression will go away both in you kraind in our societies and -- ukraine and our societies and economic systems. he has to give up his primary goal which is the end of ukraine as a sovereign state and i think what will happen after the election campaign is that there will be an even more intense debate on the future of ukraine now that trump is probably going to meet the russian president, the next german government and the parties forming this
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government will have to take positions. tom: of course the shape of that debate will depend on the coalition if we get a coalition to which point, where is your expectation now as to the different coalition outcomes, the most likely different outcomes that could come out of the back of the vote on sunday? >> the first question that we will only know the answer to on sufned will several small parties make it into parliament or not? currently there are three sometimes 4%, 5%. one of them is the liberal party which was part of the government that now ended. secondly, there is a far left party and an even more radical left party, bsw. depending on whether one, two or three of them make it over the 5% threshold will determine how many party also actually form the government. i would say if one of them gets in, there might be a chance but
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it is not a given that, two parties can form the next government. that could be the christian democrats and the social democrats. a candidate to his own succession. he said if he is not going to be chancellor then he would step down and it would be someone else leading the negotiations for the social democrats. but we might well end up in this situation where government formation is much more difficult and there needs to be more parties, a compromise may be difficult to be struck. we could face selve weeks if not months of coalition negotiations which would mean the current government stays in that role as elected government. tom: potentially weeks, potentially months of coalition negotiations. given what some have characterized as an existential moment now for europe and its partners, ending the
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transatlantic alliance as some have characterized it. what are the conversations? how close are we so seeing a government in germany that would accept a change in the debt rate to allow more spending on defense? >> it is very likely that we will see some kind of change on the position of public spending. one is obviously the debt rate of the constitution which requires 2/3 of a majority in parliament and also the second chamber where the regions are represented. that may be difficult to achieve. there is also the possibility if we really moved forward where the united states withdrawing from european security guarantees and thus an instable situation on this continent, then there is the possibility to call an emergency and to put into place extra budgets out of outside of the federal budget which would help the government jump over the strict rules that
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the debt rate has installed in our constitution and thirdly there is the question of reforming european rules. it is supposed to be a reform to allow defense spending to be excluded from a structural deficit calculation and i believe that now all moderate parties in germany realize the burden within nato has to shift even if the u.s. doesn't withdraw fully we need to do more for our own defense and in support of ukraine and the question really will be how they will frame it and organize the majorities. but even christian democrats say the apparent framework would restrict germany's actions so much that some solution will have to be found. tom: daniela, whether we characterize it as foreign interfierce or the u.s. airing its views, the trump administration airing its
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political preference, the role that elon musk plays within the trump administration and his very clear support for the af around the j.d. vance meeting with the leader of that far right group which is currently polling second. what impact hassed that had more broadly on the body politic of germany? >> that was a huge pushback from moderate parties at the munich security conference. the first german politician to speak after j.d. vance, the defense minister. he basically put aside his script and first of all spoke in german to really push back on what the audience had just heard and really people were shocked by the degree of criticism by what many policy make verse since called interference and the bashing simply of the german leadership and also of other european governments. so the vice president of the u.s. basically stood at the
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munich security conference and lectured european allies which is a very unusual situation. repercussions right now cannot be seen in opinion polling, however we know that roughly 80% of germans think that the trump administration is not good news for germany. so there is really a very strong majority who looks very critically at the development and that does not only concern what the u.s. is currently doing on our continent and how american policy makers have interfered in domestic debates and also how they have grabbed the ukraine-russia issue and excluded europeans so far from negotiations. but it is also very critical, the view what's happening within the united states. tom: we appreciate your time.
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variable insights as we counts down to that voad vote sunday. we'll bring you all the news and analysis and market moves as we continue to build up to the german elections including a special program when polls close on february 23 live from the capital here in berlin. come up president trump says he is preparing tariffs of around 25% on cars, chips and pharma imports with an announcement as soon as early april. we'll bring you the details next and later in the show, we're going to speak with phillips c.e.o. after the company's annual order intake increased for the first time in three years. this is bloomberg. ♪ the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family,
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tom: welcome back. president trump says he is preparing to impose tariffs on cars, chips and farm suited cal imports of around 25% probably he says in early april. derek joins with us the details. it is always difficult to know how much of this is rhetorical jousting from the president and how much is actually going to become reality. what do we make of the latest comments in terms of the tariff plans coming through from trump? >> well, it sets a deadline of april for getting some more details to flush out on this. we have already seen a little bit of market reaction that this was going forward. trump has telegraphed that he wants to make moves in these spaces repeatedly now. it is something he has said a lot. there is a lot of time between now and then and keep in mind this president has been willing to use tariffs as an actual term of policy and a negotiating start point. so there is some potential room as we're going through on these.
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april is also a point where we're supposed to get a little bit more detail on what these reciprocal tariffs might be that include tariff and non-tariff barriers. that is another point to watch here. that could also be, you know, put in the mix and then i would also add not that i'm trying to make anything, you know, not that i'm trying to stack things up but i should also ea add that trump said he wants tariffs on the european union. that has not been announced in terms of details of what that might look like but that is also something there. we are awaiting details on selve parts of this. what might get tariffed and what might get exempted. whether there is going to be levels of specifics in there down to the advanced state of the chip, whether all chips would get tariffed or only the best ones. how that would work. there is a significant amount of uncertainty but put that date in
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pencil in your call der. early april is going to be a time when there is going to be a significant amount of claire city we're going to get in terms of the scope of the wide universe of trump tariffs. tom: that could come with some economic pain for the u.s.' trading partners as we await the details and you unpack for us there all the different dimension of this tariff threat. we have been hearing from the treasury secretary scott bessent and defending elon musk's department of government efficiency listen in. >> i think i saw an estimate today of about $50 billion. that is a very good start. i don't think it is unreasonable to think that we could have several spernt of gdp that we are -- per sentence of gdp that we are saving. tom: is that a realistic number?
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what is the response been? does the treasury secretary actually have control over the doge team? >> well, i think in terms of the number, 55 billion has been something the doge squad have put out as an estimate for where they have gotten to. i have not necessarily seen itemized cuts add up quite to that level. i do think one of the things you have to look at is there has been a significant amount of pushback in terms of what kind of data the doge team has been looking for and treasury is one of those examples where they have been pushing for a maximum amount of data that could be used for insert purpose here. it is not fully designed how far reaching that would go. bessent is trying to push back a little bit there. in terms of the overall amounts of cuts, elon and trump had a joint interview on fox news with sean hannitj, the conservative
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host where musk was reiterating they want to do a trillion worth of deficit cuts. doing that would be a subsubstantiate cial percent of the u.s. -- they are not going to touch social security, medicare or medicaid. three big entitlement programs. then you have interest on the debt. that is what it is. right? you are in the ballpark of 1.8 trillion a year. if you're trying to get one trillion dollars worth of cuts on a year, you can imagine how subsubstantiate cial the cuts would have to be to get anywhere close to that number. so we are even as there are substantial cuts being made and throor freezes and restructurings all that, to get near the number is miles off where we are now.
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tom: despite the tens of thousands of job cuts of course and redundancies coming through from multiple federal agency, doing all of that with a context. thank you very much indeed. bloomberg's senior editor. coming up, congress makes an offer on hostage release. we'll discuss the state of the cease-fire in gaza. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ you think those phone guys will ever figure out how to keep 5g home internet from slowing down during peak hours? their customers have to share a wireless signal with everyone in their area. oooh. you know, it's kinda like when you bring a really big cake for your birthday, and then there's only a little, tiny sliver left for the birthday girl. aw. well, wish her a happy birthday. happy birthday... -it's... ...to her. -no, it's me. have your cake and eat it, too. don't settle for t-mobile or verizon 5g home internet. get super fast xfinity internet you don't have to share. forty's going to be my year.
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>> well, on the face of it it would appear that hamas is restating what we already knew about the purpose of phase two. what is unclear here is whether hamas is now saying it could also return the bodies of slain hostages, dead hostages as parts of its proposed phase two arrangement. we understand the recovery of bodies, some which are presumably under the body of gaza would have to wait until stage three. what is not clear at this stage is whether hamas is recapitulating, reminding israelis what they have to gain going into the phase two deal recovering hostages. hamas has been releasing some of those hostages. there is a palpable sense of relief from the israeli public after each release. it comes with a large or number
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of release of prisoners and detainees. trying to tip the balance in its favor and get israel to enter those phase 2 talks while relinquishing their long-term demand that any final arrangement in gaza until the end of hamas rule there. hamas has given no sign it intends the leave. tom: thank you. plenty more coming up. stay with us. we continue of course to keep an eye on the impact and the build-up of course to the elections here in germany on sunday with the analysis. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> good morning. this is bloomberg daybreak. i'm tom mackenzie in berlin. these are your stories. president trump says he may meet vladimir putin by the end of the month as the u.s. promises russian sanction will continue until the war ends. asia stock rally takes pause after the u.s. president floats 25% levies on chips and pharmaceuticals. and the biggest bank restructures in current cost of $1.8 billion. president trump reviving the tariff threat april 2nd. and 25% is what he seems to be targeting around chips and pharma space. currently futures are flat. but that is in the context of fresh record highs.
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futsi100 futures in focus as we await the inflation data out of the u.k. s & p post a modest gain .2%. and let's flip the board and go across as set the fed speakers continue and they seem to be con census that they are comfortable where the rates are. currently 4.54. market prices 1.52. brent holding at $76 a barrel. and the yellow metal is currently florida goldman sachs near record. and public debt a keyish sure for voters. at stake is whether the next
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coalition could debt break and open the door to joint borrowing on a european level. let's bring in chad thomas, the bureau chief in before lynn. the expectation that maybe there will be some reform of the debt break. it does require a 2/3 majority in both pears. how do we get the spending that germany so december patly need -- desperately need so many would argue? >> i think is it very german to try to rein the budgets to be careful about the new debt that you take on. germany's debt is only 60% of g.d.p. as they compare to other countries, of course, that's quite low but germans are still concerned about. that you do see some movement olaf shultz, he's been very clear that they need to loosen the debt break. he says they need the money for defense spending.
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and they need the new defense spending. at the same time they don't want to cut social programs in germany. you know, his party is part of any potential coalition. you can see them pushing to do that. it's a little bit trickier with fredrik metz, some of the biggest supporters of debt break. i remember when wolfgang was the finance minister. he held up the debt break as the thing to do if you're german. and so he -- metz has a fine line that he has to walk. but he's opened up a little bit to the idea that they have to make some changes. >> and he's also softened when it comes to the question of joint debt. how do question understand that shift? how consequential could bit not just for germany but for europe? >> it is something that they are talking about. when you look at what came out of the munich security conference over the weekend after it was quite clear to the
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germans that the u.s. is likely to pull away, there was discussion that germany needs to do something big. and so the going to of joint debt has come up. they've been talk about loosening the debt rules for e.u. members states. but they clearly realized that they're going have to spend a lot more money so there is a loosening there. people are leery to talk about it too much. we're only a few days before the election. they're concerned that might influence voters. i think we can expect something to shift in the days and weeks after the election. >> something will shift it will depend on the coalition makeup. but for now they want to give themselves optionalty -- optionality. bloomberg's europe executive editor, chad thomas. we're going bring you all the
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news and market moves as we continue to build up to the german elections including a special program when poles close live from the capital here in beer lincoln as european leaders come to terms in terms of being side ninth the u.s. -- sidelined in the u.s. poland has a share of g.d.p. is keen to spend elsewhere in the continent. oliver brooks spoke to the country's finance minister. >> we will maintain such a level as long as its -- it's needed. security is our top priority. we will never underestimate the let threat from russia. we definitely need to invest in our -- in our equipment, in mu
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weapons and we will continue to do that as long as possible. it's worth to mention that not only we have the highest spending in terms of g.d.p. but also within those spending we have the highest share of fans that are really dedicated to buy and modernize military equipment. so we are doing a lot to strengthen our -- our army to make poland secure. and frankly, by doing that, we are bringing more security to the whole year. and this is also why we want more of the european solidarity in terms of defense spending. >> could yo ever see that figure exceeding going to 6%, 7% if it was required by poland? >> i believe that this level of 5% close to 5% is of course,
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it's a high number. we see as i said a moment ago, i believe it's -- we'll maintain it at this level as long as its need. tom: polish finance minister speaking to oliver brook. hsbc has recorded a profit of $2.3 billion. it will incur 1.8 billion in costs. over the next two years as it embarrass on a global restructuring program. i'm joined by thomas notice from bloomberg intelligence what did we learn about the restructure and the costs being incurred as a result of those changes? >> yes, good morning. well, yes, we are all expecting to rescratch. and i believe this one will be $5 billion in cost saving.
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it is a little bit disappointing for the marriage i think we expected more from hsbc giving quite strong 2024 results. however, i think we are expecting more details. we like to have more transparency. what byes will be affected and what will be the -- the run cost rate in the future to analyze better the progress. >> the stock is up in hong kong about .10%. we'll see how it plays out in the u.k. session at the open, thomas. what is the market reaction likely to be and investor treks the details that have come through from these earnings? >> we have seen hsbc's shares more than 30% since september last year when they took over as c.e.o. i think -- i will say that most of this guidance, the cost-saving plans will be on the
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marriage and now the next thing will be to understand what would be the cost base and where the lost take place and what impacting will it have on revenue? because we would like to see better generation of revenue from hsbc to prepare for interest rates in two year's time. >> ok. tomaz neto. restructure that has been substantial at that learned and the costs being incurred. we appreciate your analysis. thank you. we will speak to roy jacob after their third quarter results with focus on the u.s. and chinese markets. this is bloomberg.
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daybreak europe. now phillips annual audit has increased. issues related to the faulty sleep apnea yeah machines including north america. roy, good morning. thank you for joining us on a busy day. comparable to the intake growing 1% last year that's the first annual growth since 2021. what percentage growth are you targeting for this year? >> so we are very glad to see a growth. we had a strong china and the rest of the world. now we have inner year another positive order this year.
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we are seeing it in the rest of the world. we still see china continue to be slow. but china for us is one story so when it will be back, there will be growth and there be mark because it's an attractive mark in the long-term. needs healthcare an conners welcomed back but that's not exactly clear when that will happen. but we are dialing down on delivering the innovations across the world and there we've seen good like markets like north america who were in double digits by the end of year it's a two-speed world currently that we are tracking on. >> let me push you on the order intake outlook for the rest of the year. you see that growing. 1%? 2%? you see that in the fourth quarter? how many can you expect in 202025? >> we will con the where positive intake growth.
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we expect it to be a combination of still a slower china and positive growth outside of the world. but we have and that helps us to expand our further margin and deliver some cash which will give us the ability to get back into dividends and offer dividends in cash to our shareholders. >> let me get to the tale of two markets. double digit decline in china. to be clear you don't see the u.s. market turning around for phillips. this is not a 2025 story? >> what we said is that for sure for the first half, we see the momentum continues that we had in second part of 2024. and that was indeed slow consumer demands and we saw still slow procurement in the healthcare sight.
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now, we also know that china is working its way back into economic growth as well as we know that they're working for reforms in healthcare so we expect it will come back. we just dope know exactly when it's going to happen. so therefore we are not going or running ahead of that timing. but it will come back at a certain point in time. now in the meanwhile, we are dialing up the engine and deliver the rest for the rest in north america and good growth engines in saudi and indonesia. we see europe where the growth is coming back. there are orderer as and we have been strike our fundamentals. we will be launching an exciting innovation that will help us deliver the growth and deliver in china local for local products when dehand turns back. >> how big is the championship market for phillips now? >> it's still sizable. and we also expect that to
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continue. but we have also the other 90% to play for. and that's a great combination of great markets. latin america is a great positive story last year they had few challenging years before that. they came back strongly. so we see the cap x environment in general strengthening. across the world we saw where it came out. a negative 22 for the hospitals. 23 was stronger and now in 24, we saw that really picking up and therefore investing more because the cues are still big. the need for healthcare is growing. and therefore we also expect demand for our innovations that are relevant for them will continue to be there. >> so what assumption, roy are you making about the tariff impacting when it comes to your outlook particularly with that focus on the key north american markets? so >> so we have included the tariffs and those are the tariffs between the u.s. and china.
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those we have been catering for. and we have been working through the last three years to really strengthen our supply chain, further regional lies it make it more robust. also adapt it. we don't speculate. but what what we do advocate for is that patients are taking central because it has an impacting on supply chain and we have a short-lived memory from the covid crisis. we had massive shortages in providing care to our patients. patients first when we think about tariffs but we take it into our own hands by working the supply chain and going for more local to local delivery that is the trend. delivery needs to be more localized and we're working. that >> does that mean you have to put up prices or do you absorb the squeeze on the margin?
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>> we have been delivering 1.7% of productivety ex-anding that for next year so we can deal with cost and continue to grow behind innovation. at the same time we saved $1.7 billion of productivity. that's is way we continue to innovated a deliver exciting innovation where a.i. is really an important knew technology to deliver a great value some of the launches that we had that are fueled by a.i. that's the way we can deal with cost increases. >> roy, are you relooking at the portfolio businesses right now? ian you were going to say -- in january, you were going to look at the capital are you looking at further divestments? >> we continue to look at how we move phillips forward. and in that we zale innovations
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that we believe are the ones that have the best potential for the future. but a smaller business so it doesn't have that big scale potential. imaging, monitoring interventional and personal health we believe are very strong. and all supported with a very strong layer. so those are exciting portfolio blocks. they're all delivering value to many customers in the world. we have leading positions. we keep innovating in each of those pill lars. and those are the ones that we take into the future. >> before we let you go. are you ready to reenter thest market when it comes to the sleep apnea market? >> we had a great year in 2024. we could return back into the markets and we saw that that really resulted in growth in cheap respiratory care and we had strong profit delivery which
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was the first year indeed. we closed the litigation. d.o.j. investigation is still going on but we're excited about some of the new innovations. we got two more masks that we're bringing into the marriage they're coming back as an engine and we are working behind that. >> roy jacobs on the back of those earnings. comparable growing for 1% last year for the first time since 2021. a tale of two marks. china underperforming. north america doing quite well. this wednesday, bloomberg has learned that b.p. is weighing a potential sale of its lubricant products. a sale of the business is one of the many options b.p. is considering to win back investor confidence and as elliott investment management pressures the company.
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bloomberg has learned that elon musks social media company x is in talks to raise money from investors at a $44 billion valuation. that is the same prize that the tesla billionaire paid for the company back in 2022. it would be a remark turn of fortunes for x. it caused many users to flee the platform. stay with us. this is bloomberg c. ♪♪) ♪ three little birds ♪ ♪ (steel drums playing lightly) ♪ (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪)
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year that recalibrate it and put it in line with the economy we have and now we want to be in my judgment careful before we make the next adjustment. >> mary daily speaking there around expectations or at least the assumption, the view that the fed can hold where they are with rates given dynamic around the job market. let's check in on how assumptions are evolving around the feds' next steps. it's worth noting that markets are not pricing in the first additional cut until september. they have until july or september. 27 basis points of cuts by september. marks are split as to whether or not you get one or two by the end of this year. and this chart showing just how the expectations around fed pricing and the next feds moves have evolved of course over
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recent months. chris wallace does expect to see inflation evolving possibly as he did in 2024 in which case he is still open to additional cuts. let's have a look at what the tariff situation is shaping up to be. president trump reminding us that he's committed to some tariffs. that could have an impacting on inflation. it could have an impacting on whether the fed goes. in terms of the u.s. auto company, he called them out. by far the largest orders from mexico followed by south korea. japan in the mix. canada and then germany. mexico is top of the list in terms of countries that sell into the u.s. when it comes to awe toes. let's look at the company breakdown because this is where germany comes to the floor. given the strength and the center of the auto industry
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within the industrial base of germany. 80% in terms of its share of imports into the u.s. as a proportion of sales. v.w. and mercedes and b.m.w. let's check in on inflation out of the u.k. that's a number that drops in four minutes time. you going to see a tick up. and you should see a contraction. what that means for the bank of england, andrew bailey has been talking down the inflation impactings. that data drops in four minutes. consequential for where the b.o.e. goes next. the opening trade next. this is bloomberg.
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