>> good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am tom mackenzie. at risk as a symbol is doubled

from threatens more dirt on china and confirms levies for and mexico. will go ahead from tuesday. beijing says it will take all necessary countermeasures to defend itself. the u.k. prime minister starmer president trump says britain could avoid tariffs if a deal is reached on trade, saying officials are working on negotiations. pleasant donald trump backtracks on, ukraine's president a dictator i of today's white house meeting with zelenskyy. as well as geopolitics, earnings and focus with the chemical giant basf listed in germany, but with global exposure coming from the line for 2025 adjusted earnings ebitda, seeing between

80 billion and 8.4 billion euros , so roughly in line with estimates in terms of expectations around earnings for basf. there was a big focus on the china part of the story and the autos unit, which is high-margin for the company. the stock is up 14% in the last 12 months. let's get to broader markets because we are seeing around -- a rout across asia. tariff angst, nvidia plummeting down 8.5% by the end of the session and the nasdaq 100 falling 2.7%. s&p close a word by 1.6%, so we brittle handout for europe as we square off to friday's open. ftse 100 future is looking to drop 52 points. s&p futures stateside, they fled after the losses of yesterday, a bit of a pause after the route

yesterday. as i futures pointing to modest gains of 13 points. let's flip the board and lacrosse as i, because the move into treasuries is still there. the rally continues, 4.22 on your benchmark u.s. 10 year, back to levels we have not seen since december 2024. today it yields lower by three basis points. euro-dollar, 1.04. bitcoin has stumbled 25% from its record levels. the commodity space being squeezed by the tariff risk today, under pressure, and oil down .5 of 1%. avril hong is standing by for a check on the asian markets, and it is a rough ride this friday. avril: it is rough, wild, asia stock gauge headed for its first

weekly loss in seven. it is also the chips that are the dragon and nvidia earnings continuing to sap sentiment, but the big driver is trump's tariff talk. the worry is this turns out to an all-out trade war. that we are watching out for china in terms of retaliatory actions. bloomberg intelligence of the view that so far they have been more measured in their approach. does what mr. trump: kick things up a notch? indicate the lowest level since september and the regional benchmark along with the hang seng tech get it for the first weekly loss in seven. flip the board again, because of the selling is not confined to equities. we are seeing that in fx as we

ll, not just for the dollar bounce but these asian companies. india rupee hitting the lowest level against the greenback in five years. the renminbi has managed to keep its head above water, and some of this has to do with the pboc signals of the at the u.n. fixed today that for the past month or so has been around the 7.17 level, so clearly in the face of challenges from trump they want you on stupid -- yuan stability. chinese tech losses have dented the thesis of chinese u.s. tech decoupling. mark cranfield says of the key test will be at the performance of the golden dragon later today. if it enters the weekend with modest losses, bb this is a signal the chinese tech stocks can continue outperforming in the region. tom: with the expected stimulus to enough to support the economy in the face of tariffs.

a challenging day for asia as we come to the end of this week and months. the global markets a lot has been driven by the u.s. after nvidia' as a result of an tariff comments. let's bring in valerie for a broader outlook. >> it was a swift limit from u.s. equities into the close yesterday. s&p 500 totally wiping out its gains for 2025, and in the last week that s&p 500 has dropped 4%. it was a surprisingly it's a should move also from nvidia having its worst session since the deepseek rout in early january. the magnificent seven not looking so magnificent. only meta is clinging onto

small gains. the bloomberg dollar index all but of its biggest jumps in two weeks. this is on ratcheting up of trump's tariff threats. he is majoring in on the march 4 date, so bloomberg dollar index did see quite a jump. we have u.s. pce data, the fed's favorite inflation metric expected to rise month on month for the month of january. we will be analyzing even the second decimal. tom: you will have your magnifying glass out for the data later today on the inflation front with markets pricing in two additional cuts this year. we will see how that adjust around pce. valerie with the market reaction.

part of this is done to what is happening on the tariff story. chinese stocks sliding in the session. after u.s. president donald trump said he would impose additional 10% tariffs on imports from the world's second-largest economy, adding to fears of an expanding trade war between the two nations. it comes after president trump said the tariffs on canada and mexico are on track to take place next week. here is what he said. pres. trump: it is a myth put out there by foreign countries really do not like paying tariffs especially to even out. we have been treated badly a lot. we are using tariffs. i find you have to look at the numbers, but i find it has been about inflation.

tom: for more let's bring in bill faries. trump pushing against the tariffs are inflationary narrative. to what extent do we have clarity on whether or not this is a negotiating tactic that will essentially be solved at the last minute before the deadline or if this is a structural change in trade flows this administration is pushing for? >> it has been confusion as president trump is talked about the various different tariffs and when they have come into play. he has tried to give clarity on that, saying mexico and canada 25% tariffs coming in on tuesday with 10% tariffs. it may well be a negotiating tactic, and if it is we will probably not find out until

monday. it was that happen when the mexican and canadian tariffs were supposed to come in and at the last minute trump said he had promises about where to seal the northern border and the southern border, to go after illegal immigration and fentanyl imports, so i something like that in the cards at this point? possibly, and with trying to is he pushing for something that could happen at the last minute? does he want a call from xi jinping? that will be something we have to spend the weekend worrying about and wake up monday hoping to learn. tom: the markets not taking any chances on this. to the broader geopolitical question, ukrainian president zelenskyy visiting the white house today. in his meeting with you caper and is, the u.s. leader walked back his denunciation of the ukrainian counterpart last week. take a listen.

>> [indiscernible] pres. trump: did i say that? i can't believe i said that. next question. tom: what should we expect from this meeting later today? >> i think we will be watching a lot of the body language in addition to what the two leaders are actually saying to each other area it was just one week ago that president trump did call president zelenskyy a dictator and said he had a 4% approval rating despite polls showing otherwise, and president zelenskyy saying president trump was having it at disinformation space, so things got ugly last week. they are trying to repair that. i think we do not have a lot of details about what this minerals agreement will include. we do not think it will include a security agreement were shield

for ukraine, but i think the most important thing for ukraine is that president zelenskyy is doing this and with donald trump, and i think given how fast talks are going with russia this keeps ukraine near the table if not at the table as those discussions proceed. tom: watching the body language will be fascinating. we saw a body language a plate in terms of the meeting between the u.k. prime minister keir starmer and the president. arguably she left that meeting with a little bit to be satisfied about despite falling short of his key goal of securing the military backs out. he also said he would start stalled negotiations on trade. pres. trump: we are going to have a great trade agreement. at one way or another we will end up with a great trade agreement, and we are working on that as we speak.

i think we will have something maybe even in terms of possibilities agreed to shortly. prime minister starmer: our trade relationship is not just wrong, it is fair, balanced, and recyclable. tom: some people call this the most important meeting between theo caper minister and the u.s. president in decades. did keir starmer handle the president deftly or miss an opportunity on ukraine security pledges? >> i do not know that anyone could have events donald trump to make a security pledge to ukraine at this point. this was a huge meeting, their first meeting. he has been courting donald trump hours or days after the first assassination attempt on

donald trump. it shows you do not have to be into very conservative or right-leaning camp to whatever donald trump -- to win over donald trump. he has the promise of a state dinner, a state visit with the king to put out there. we know donald trump has a special place in his heart for the u.k., and keir starmer milking it saying that second invitation was unprecedented, something that just never happens and a sign of how strong their relationship is, but when you go back to the trade deal that he seemed to get positive news on, you have got to remember in 2017 when donald trump took office the first time he said the u.k. would be at the front of the line for any trade deal after the u.k. settled its departure from the european union, so he had a whole first term and that did not happen, so there will be taking those comments with a grain of salt going forward. if you were looking for good news, i think keir starmer got

as much as he realistically could have hope for on this trip. tom: excellent round up of the key lines when it comes to ukraine, the you caper in the's visit and trump's latest comments. let's get back to the earnings story, allianz the end sure coming through the be of the full year, alternating profit of 16 point two billion euros above the estimates which had been for 58 billion. a modest to be in terms of the full year. in terms of the outlook, they see operating profit between 15 billion and 17 billion euros, so above the estimates. it is a positive, and in terms of inflows into pimco, that is important as well. third-party net inflows for

pimco 14 billion euros. the company announced a ramp-up in its buyback program. stock to watch at 8:00 a.m. u.k. time friday. chips are down for asian equities and tariff talks sabbath sentiment. we will discuss with our guests how to position in the credit markets and fixed income. that conversation coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back, happy friday. european futures and asian equities not happy. sentiment being further accepted by trump's latest comments on terrace.

for more with the particular lens on the sovereign space and fixed income, let us bring in tatiana, clo global head. let's talk about the bond market, and we will talk about treasuries where we have seen a rally. yields lower by 60 basis points on the u.s. 10 year since the middle of january. is there further to go in terms of the u.s. treasury rally? >> good morning. in terms of the treasury, it has performed well. also because it came from a high point. we were up at 4.8 and he did have a long way to come down. the second half of last year it came down to 3.5%, which is the lowest. we think it will trade in the range. this is probably the lower to mid part of the range, and where

we can go depending upon -- we have so much to unpack. there was this expectation that there were signs that inflation is actually rebounding, so inflation coming back up. clearly that would be bad for the treasury market and for fixed income, but also what impact to all of the changes trump is currently initiating, there is a lot of unraveling. clearly if market sentiment is poor, thin people are flocking to the treasury market, so that there are so many competing forces at the moment, and so that is why we think actually that the treasury market will trade in a range, not breaking up that much right away, but it can still be feeling -- let's put it that way. it is becoming quite a good hedge to the equity market, which is was not for a while,

but now the negative correlation is starting to peek. if you look at your own portfolio at the treasury market were fixed income is around to play again. tom: maybe the 60-40 strategy is back. what happened to the tariffs are inflationary and therefore negative to bonds? as that been counteracted by safe even moves? >> exactly. to the extent that terrace may reduce or put a wedge in trading, and so clearly you would assume that names -- firstly it makes everything more expensive because of the tariffs. things are becoming more expensive, but there will be increased trade friction, and because things become more expensive. when you calculate overall inflation depending upon how bad the tariffs are and which products are being affected,

there were estimates that it could be between 0.3 and 1%, so they could be quite meaningful, but also the trade of frictions could mean that there was lower growth. so you have those two opposing forces where it is very difficult to see where it comes out in the fixed income market. it is probably easier to see where it comes out of the equity market, and does not really spell a strong equity market. and that is something we have been discussing probably for the last 2, 3 months, where we say given to performance of the equity market, reticular late u.s. evaluations, we are cautious to see some of the returns. so we have lowering returning

expectations. given the yield levels we are seeing still in the u.s. last year with the credit spreads, credit becomes quite interesting, because you have similar yield expectations in terms of dividend yields versus the yields that you are getting in credit. but clearly you expect much less volatility in the credit market. when you go to the short end, much more predictability of your returns. tom: unfortunately we have run out of trying -- time. we appreciate your view on credit and the linkages. tatiana, thank you. coming up, we will take a closer look at whether donald's steel and aluminum terrace will create the domestic abuse the president promised.

this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back. donald trump he will impose u.s. tariffs on aluminum and steel as part of its efforts to create jobs at home. here to analyze what this means is head of nef metal steam. how dependent is the u.s. on imports of steel products at this point? >> at the moment, last year the u.s. imported $90 billion worth of steel. if you estimate how dependent the u.s. is on the market i would say quite a lot. tom: in terms of whether or not

this will actually benefit domestic producers, that is the rationale. what is the evidence to support that? >> at the moment the utilization was about 76%, so i think there is room for them to grow to meet the domestic demand. for them to do that, that would mean that in the next two years of their would have to be operating at the present elicitation -- operation. trying to push something 100 years old is quite high. in then the other -- the near term will see response from domestic producers, but whether they can fully substitute imports will be difficult. tom: 76% capacity right now, they would need to get it to 90%. how does that map onto the jobs market? >> the evidence is unclear.

for those who are familiar. this is actually a resumption of section 232. back in 2018 president trump in a similar measure work you put import restrictions on steel and aluminum, and what happened was we had only 2019 as a full year to determine the impact on jobs. it was only 4%. coping happened in 20 -- covid happened in 2020. tom: that is really important context analysis. thank you very much indeed. coming up, the market selloff cont the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household,

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tom: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am tom mackenzie in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. risk is as simple as donald trump confirms more tariffs on china and canada and mexico. beijing says it will take all necessary countermeasures to defend itself. meeting do you could permit a circle of president trump says britain could avoid tariffs if a trade deal is with saying officials are working on negotiations. plus donald trump backtracks on calling ukraine's president a dictator ahead of the white house meeting with zelenskyy. geopolitics are the overhang as well as the terrace. nvidia falling, so in about the tech sector as the mag7 we trenches with the exception of meta. u.s. futures pointing to a slightly decision, but you saw a

loss the nasdaq 100 and a drop of 6% for the s&p. losses of have percent yesterday. what you 100 futures pointing lower by 52 points. keycorp bce gauge and what it could mean for expectations around the federal board -- federal reserve. the bond bull market continues, yields down on the u.s. 10 year closing and at 4.2% right now. we have seen significant moves into treasuries, a safe haven move. the euro back below the 1.04 level. bitcoin posting significant losses. inc. about their it was with a record high above 100,000. i it is 79,000, wiping off 25% versus those record highs. brent trading at 73.54 as

commodities come under pressure. a global sump is continuing across equities, but you can see that in other as investors shun riskier bets after president trump double done on the tariffs. let's get more from valerie on how the markets are adjusting. >> it was a lakeside in the equity market yesterday, some de-risking momentum ahead of the weekend taking place into the close. the s&p 500 flipping into the red, so holding on for losses in 2025 and in the last session dropped to over 4%. a lot of this was driven by tech, nvidia admin one of its worst days since the deepseek rout back in january dropping 8.5%. a lot of de-risking as will attend a barrel, march 4 day catching people's eye, because

he added an additional 10% on china, a new one coming from trump, which rattled investors risk appetite yesterday and rattling the asian market overnight. csi 300, the nikkei, the hang seng posting steep declines. the nikkei in japan, 83 standard deviation move to the downside as we look ahead to retaliatory measures coming out of china. tom: valerie tytel, pretty remarkable to think about what is happening with the magnificent seven and the s&p. how we should be thinking about the most recent dress from president trump saying 25% tariffs on canada and mexico are on track to take effect on march 4, tuesday of next week. he has set to impose an additional heavy on chinese imports on the same day with beijing announcing overnight it will take all necessary countermeasures. the international trade center,

with supports small businesses in developing countries has studied the potential impact of tariffs. according to their analysis if all of the terror of threats materialize global exports to the u.s.: declined by $237 billion. i am joined by the executive director of the international trade session. it is difficult to cut through the smoke and mirrors of the terror of threats. some are real, average, and some are part of rerouting of trade supplies. what is your current assumptions? >> i am hearing the news that they will go ahead. one of the difficulties we have is it is smoke and mirrors, so we are not sure when it will occur or if it will occur, but we are assuming it will occur on march 2. what has occurred within the context of tariffs is they are not taking into account the fact

that in the supply chain, if you are making a car, intermediate goods, which are 40% of global trade across the canadian border at least eight times. therefore, for every time it crosses 25%. can you imagine the final cross and the impact on trade? therefore countries are beginning to look at shifting their trade with the united states. how will that impact in the long run? in the long run it will increase costs for the united states. and it will also create instability across the markets. i see the fall in the markets taking place already, and we see exactly what the potential is for disruption. tom: what does that mean for global inflation? >> it is not good.

it is going to be a serious problem, because we are not just adding canada. we are adding mexico and china on the end are interconnected in a globalized world. therefore, increasing terrace from 10% to -- tariffs from 10% to 20% on china plus 25% on canada and mexico, that will create hyperinflation. tom: the risks of hyperinflation, what is the ability of these trading nations to reroute those exports? the timeframe into the markets they could be shifting to? >> shifting will always be difficult, because they have set up systems, and the systems will take a while to shift, but i think from the soundings there is a commitment to do this. it will probably take four years

, but the shifting is taking place. if you look for example in 2018, china's relationship and the deficit the united states has fallen by 70%, but the increase in that deficit moved to mexico, so what has been saved? in addition where you have a scenario where the mexico-canada, united states are tied into what was a free-trade agreement where there would have been normal abuse settlement procedures, that has been completely abrogated, so how do we move forward in a trust situation? a lot of this has to do with trust unpredictability? tom: is china that the beneficiary of this to some extent in terms of its relationships with developing nations? they look to china now as a

trustworthy trading partner? is that another consequence? >> it is. as a matter of fact, combining the tariffs with the withdrawal of aid has completely shifted how countries are going to view the relationship with the united states and their trust versus their engagement with china. there has always been this tug-of-war, but i think what has happened is nature abhors a vacuum. therefore, if you withdraw in some places 50%, 60% of you there aid, they will turn to the next power. tom: on a sector by sector basis, you talked about the autos market. you are thinking about different sectors and how vulnerable the sectors are. how do you rank that? >> i would say autos are huge because of the nature of the

supply chain and how it works in the various crossing orders i think tech -- crossing borders. i think tech will also be affected and the impact on u.s. consumers. i do not think people understand the level of dependence of the united states on inputs from china and other countries, and i think that will become clearer as we move ahead. tom: we have not even talked about retaliation. china has promised to retaliate. the european union as a list of products in canada following a similar line as well. we are on the brink of a potential global trade were at this point? >> it would seem so, yes. tom: those retaliatory measures combined with the tariffs throughout -- trump is threatening, what will that do to global gdp? >> let's put it this way.

if there is this massive retaliation taking place, china has already filed a w-2, therefore they are following a procedure. the fact that that procedure is already in a sense stymied by the fact that there was no appellate body working, the wto has not been able to function effectively, so retaliatory tariffs are across the board is going to lead to this amazing trade war that i do not think we have seen ever in this current situation, and the impact on developing countries especially is going to be epic, because of the fact that there is a huge dependence on the level of imports, and therefore if you have inflation, rising prices, at the ability of these developing countries to function effectively in a global trading market is going to be

significantly impacted. tom: this is fascinating. one of my key takeaways is the rhetoric already even if some of these tariffs have not been implemented. we have them implemented on china but has not come through from canada and mexico, but the rhetoric alone is changing out corporate and others are thinking about their trade routes. thank you for your analysis. pamela, executive director of the international trade center. eu leaders are to call for increased flexibility in their funding rules to boost defense spending good responding to growing challenges posed by russia and president trump. draft conclusions for a march 6 summit show ursula von der leyen is expected to present a letter

with the funding options. earlier this week she called the situation a once in a generation moment. bloomberg has learned germany's chancellor in waiting are said to start exploratory talks on accomplishing. each side is expected to be represented by nine negotiations and merz has said he will move quickly to form a government. a german ai startup marked by a former f1 driver as raise $25 billion -- $25 million to train robots. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

[laughter] you go to sandals to get really, really close... to the caribbean. we should do this every morning. ♪♪

tom: welcome back. openai is rolling out an early version of a long-awaited model

called jet -- chatgpt 4.5. a german startup saying on the same theme as raised $25 million to apply his technology, which it says can be applied on any off-the-shelf robot to make that robot do things it would not otherwise do. i will bring at the co-founder. how will you be deploying the cash? >> thank you so much for having me. so far deploying to catch, two things are very important. number one is double down on computer. we have shown to be very capital efficient. we bought youth from -- it is important to use

opportunities and use of the funds to build larger and more capable models. the second thing is unlocking the united states. there is no such solution like ours, and therefore we want to offer this to north america. tom: what is the market opportunity for the segment you were building out? what are you targeting long-term? how big a diskette? -- could this get? >> they can empower all kinds of robots to be a useful tool for humanity, and therefore the company delivers physical labor. this company as a market cap that could be a fraction of gdp, so the opportunity is huge, and it can serve to offload dangerous jobs to robots. tom: when we think of the

defense spending coming to from europe as they adjust to the new cavity, we think of robotics and defense in the two come together. is that a setting you would think about? >> not at all. sereact focuses on use case like manufacturing, automation, and also health care and household robotics. tom: it is a competitive space. a lot of companies within the software robotics base. how do you think about the competition and are you looking at acquisitions? >> we are not going to be looking at acquisitions, but the competition is strong, because it is a fundamental problem to solve to overall increase our productivity. what differentiates sereact's we are building the chatgpt for robotics, and we have seen the

increase by orders of magnitude through tools of chatgpt. i can translate stuff quicker, write code quickly, but human productivity in general and the real world tested on the same level, so sereact building a model that can basically help humanity or society to push real-world productivity even higher, and that differentiates us from other companies. tom: is there a place as you sit in germany -- is there a place for artificial intelligence to create the growth of germany so desperately needs, and what do you see that looking like? >> that is a very good question. in general, we see that artificial intelligence can be a fundamental game changer, because it can empower tools like robotics to help us overcome labor shortages and

reduce costs, so therefore it is great to build such a company out of germany, because germany has years of track record in automation, and we are adding ai on top of that to deliver for robots and increase our level of automation, and of course that can significantly benefit not only germany, but also europe and the rest of the world. tom: you race the $25 million. how does that position you in terms of fundraising and are you thinking about ipo plans? >> this is something that i would leave open to the future. i like to keep the company alive, so i do not want to make investors happy, but i want to exceed expectations of our customers, and we will see what happens. tom: ok, a cautious, conservative approach but exciting times for you in the

business. ralph called -- ralf gulde, appreciated. some of the newsmaking headlines, bloomberg understands investors are placing fintech re volut to offer a new share sale as investors look to get his take the fast paced london growing startup. they would sell at a valuation of $60 billion, significantly higher than the $45 billion price tag and garnered in a secondary share sale six months ago. meta said to be in talks with apollo to help develop data centers in the u.s.. at georgia safety alternative asset manager has discuss providing a major part of the financing. kkr is understood to be part of the group. meta plans to spend $65 billion on projects tied to ai this year. tencent as released its turbo ai

model with the claimed that it is faster than deepseek's chat bot. the ai service is intended to respond as soon as possible and the cost of the model has been reduced. it underscores the dramatically quickened pace of development since deepseek stunned silicon valley with its low cost model a month ago. we will get more details on the rout in those mag 7 socks with one exception, meta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the data suggest that we are close to achieving the mandate, although inflation has been firmer than i would like and a bit sticky. certainly survey measures of inflation expectations are not

perfect and subject to noise, but with inflation recently at a 40 year high, now is not the time to let down our guard. tom: the kansas city federal reserve president, stickiness inflation, you can see that on discharge. ppi is the yellow line, cpi is the blue line, and the white line is pce. above the 2% level being targeted by the federal reserve. on the ppi level, 3.5%. we get pce today. the expectation is that will take up -- tick up. it may lead to concern amongst fed officials. the u.s. consumer seems to be slowing in terms of their spend. markets pricing in two additional cuts so far. let's flip the board and have a look at tariffs.

even a president trump says they are not inflationary, the expectation for most economists is that they could be. we are looking at mexico, canada, china. 25% on mexico, ended up, and an additional 10% on china. a total of more than $1 trillion of goods that flow into the u.s. market. let's look at the mag 7. the rout has been pronounced except for meta. this takes us back to december 17. the pain trade has been tesla, a loss of $633 billion. the mag 7 are being crushed other than meta and investing heavily in infrastructure of the ai. they have seen a market gain of $103 billion, but how much do

you want to question the trade going forward. a grim day for the asian story as a result of tariffs, concerns about nvidia. hstech down 5.7%. 2.3% drop across the benchmark in asia. the nikkei and kospi also under pressure, inc. and down 3.4%. do not miss our monthly show. our first episode of the year takes a look at how president trump is rattling the african continent. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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