>> from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm sonali basak and "bloomberg: real yield" starts right now.

sonali: a softer u.s. payroll report shows a rising jobless rate and some potential complex numbers the data and market volatility setting treasury yields to lows. and we count you down the fed chair jay powell's remarks less than 30 minutes away. and we begin with the big issue, the first takes of hard data under a new administration. >> we can't really very well a sigh of relief because we're going to start getting hit pretty constantly. >> it is taking place and we will see more of it snowball as things go forward. >> everybody's saying what's more important? what's ahead of us? >> there's uncertainty that's what makes me really nervous. >> it's clear that we do have a lot headwinds mounting. >> i think bond investors are going to go through a period of discomfort. >> you have probably the slowdown which will bring yields

back down probably around 380 or so. >> risk assets are very vulnerable and that's when bonds make sense. >> we're still in the camp that says the fed's on hold for a while. sonali: now all the rhetoric around tariffs and this week's markets pushed bond markets to the highest level since the day after the u.s. election. so you might remember when things are calm, you look at the move index now and we are back to the highest levels of the year. and the ten year was a place that a lot of investors might feel a little burned to end the week. there were a wide range of districtses and we're going -- distributions and we're going to look at the long term and short term. you came into the year expecting far less rate cuts. and now you have not one, but two, but three cuts priced into fed futures. what's remarkable about this is there's still huge distribution and not everyone is on board of the idea of three rate cuts.

brian morn han told bloomberg that the central bank has seen enough white house policy to hold off on further easing. >> our team believes that the fed is done cutting rates until inflation gets in control. they believe that -- and i would say they may -- as they're thinking if the tariffs go in, they thought it would have some growth the u.s. and that may cause them to think about that. you've got employment pretty stable and loose on ad lot over the last year. and so maybe their view is there will be no cuts. >> joining us now, kelsay barrow of jp morgan chase and lindsay rosner. just a stunning day. kelsey, get us started higher, what you thought and the uncertainty that might still be ahead after we got the first prevail print under the trump administration. >> yes, so uncertainty is really the keyword because you just look at the payrolls report at

the surface the unemployment rate is at 4:1%. the job growth is at 2,000. what is there to complain about dismember but bond yields have been moving lower and it's not about what's happening now but it's what people expect the future. and if i look deeper into in the payrolls report to try to understand where the balance of risk my lie, some of the same themes we've been talking about for a while still exists. so, for example, if you look at the concentration of job growth, it's still very concentrate in the just two sectors which is state and local hiring and education and health care. and we're still trying to understand is there going to be momentum in the rest of the private sector to pick up the slack because we can't rely on that job growth going forward. so cracks under the surface, high level, the moto case has to be soft landing but we have to

consider the probability that the downside risks are rising. sonali: definitely start to talk more about those downside risks. lindsay, how do you expand on all of the worries that kelsey laid out here? >> for us this, wasn't that concerning today. it wasn't as bad as feared. there was a concern in some whisper numbers out in the market. that suggested that in fact, the could be a soft number and that would portend that the economy is slipping into recession. we're very happy to see a reasonable number today. this number does not include what's going with doge or federal workers. that will be meaningful and will start to pick up in the next number. so today, what would have been really important if the number was soft because some of the

things we are concerned about are in that number yet. so the fact that it was stable is good. big picture, soft landing is still our case and where we are right now is we're being paid to pause and wait for more information. sonali: it's interesting. i'm glad you brought up doge, lindsey that's a big part of the uncertainty you look at the government hiring. there is going to be some pressure there. is the private sector hiring going to pick up some of that slack? kelsey: that is the question because we do see in some of the secondary measures of labor market health that the labor market turn isn't. as we see more lay-offs on the federal side which is a small portion of total employment but does move the needle on the margin, are the people reabsorbed in the play-by-play

easily? that is something that is still yet to be determined and snag we're watching very closely. sonali: i'm going to bring pup also the topic here of market pricing on federate cuts. lindsay, do you agree that you could see three and what is that implying? is that consistent with the soft landing scenario? lindsay: we should take a step back on february 10. there was 30 basis points of cuts. so one cut priced in. we've had a tremendous move. and what you have to evaluate is did we actually see so much change in terms of policy that that is in fact warranted? what's getting priced into the market is that there's going to be more of a drag on growth. but the fed told us in their last dots. that's something that we have to look for in the next stocks but we're not seeing growth really being impacted that much.

what we do know which everybody else knows is that there's a lot of uncertainty. and something to highlight is in the ism feedback, tariffs were mentioned 20 times. earnings calls, tariffs were mentioned 50% on the call. this uncertainty out there. we don't feel at this point in time that the economic growth has first of all fallen off or were worried about it becoming a problem. but this is something that we're worrying about, looking forward, two cuts makes more sense. sonali: i'm glad that you mentioned that because we are going to headlines from the white house as well from president trump. he says they may do reciprocal tariffs as early as today or monday. so, certainly the story moving very quickly. kelce, when you think about the tariff story here and we'll get more into the tariffs with a reporter soon, and i will say he

says that reciprocal tariffs on canada in particular may be as early as today. how do you factor that in to what is happening in the bond market? there has been so much anxiety around inflation concerns. where do you put this uncertainty into the way you are putting money to work? kelsey: while the timing may be surprising, pushing forward, this reciprocal tariff announcement, this is not surprising to us that he is continuing to pound the table on tariffs. just because he delayed canada and mexico earlier this week does not mean that the tariff story was going away. so the way -- yeah. sonali: i have to cut in here because we are now going to head to trump. went to bling bring you from the news from the white house itself. pres. trump: it's going to have high praying manufacturing jobs as opposed to government jobs. we have too many people in government. you can't just do that. we had too many. this is for 40 years.

this isn't just now. this built up and got worse and worse and they just higher more and more -- hired more and more people. the department of education, so many buildings, i ride by that says department of education they're all over the place. we don't even want it. we want the education to be given by the states. it will be much better. it will move us to the top of the list from the bottom of the list. and actually save us money. but it's too important to even talk about it. it will save us a lot of money. but we don't want that. we want education to be given. so you go to a.i. and indiana and idaho and all these places that are so well run. they're going to be producing education that be the equivalent of like denmark is one and norway, sweden. actually, china is one of the better in terms of education. so so we can't blame size anymore. china has 1.4 billion people but they're very high on their list of the one thing we're doing

well on is cost for people. we spend more money than any other country in the world by far. so i jokingly say the one thing we do well on is we spend more money and yet, we're toward the bottom of the list. >> millions of americans watched your joint address earlier this week. will there be a little disturbance for americans could feel as a result of these tariffs? how much disturbance are you going to accept and setting expectations how long should americans expect things to cost a bit more? pres. trump: so far, there hasn't been very much because these numbers are coming up. we're here for just a little over four weeks and that's these are fantastic numbers. i was watching some of the report this morning. the could be some disturbance, a little bit of disturbance. i solved a little bit of that because i have respect for our auto companies and i gave them a little bit of a one-month reprieve because it was unfair,

although i'm sure they'll take advantage of it. i see they're driving a lot of cars into the u.s. to try and avoid the tariffs and taking advantage of at it little bit. but they were -- they called me they ask me. they said could they have a little bit of help? and i decided they're american companies, and i let them have that. but this really kicks in the reciprocal, kicks in on the second and i wanted to be the first so badly. didn't want it to be on april fool's day. that's going to cost a lot of money. that one day is going to cost a lot of money but that's ok. but i don't see anything. i see good reports. i think we're going to have good numbers from the going. now, globalists won't love this because this brings jobs back to america. if they're come back to america, maybe you'll lose some in other parts of the world. but the other parts on the world have done very well and they'll

continue to do very well. but i think the united states is going to be doing record business. we'll bring a lot of those 90,000 factories that have been lost over the last number of years. it's hard to believe. i think it was 90,000 plants and factories have gone. we got to bring back many of those. >> one days the tariffs are on. the next day they're off the markets prefers disability. produce done going for the pauses and that -- pres. trump: there will always be changes and adjustments. you can't just -- i could have for instance, told the american car companies no, i'm not going give you anything and then you wouldn't have to say well, they're getting a little extra. it's just a little bit of a one-month reprieve. they're very happy about what's happening. they won't have to go across borders and you see the zigzagging. you have a fender made in canada and something else made in mexico. we don't want that. we want it made here. but there will always be some modifications. and if you have a wall in front

of you, sometimes you have to go around the wall instead of through it. but i think very little. i think very little. on occasion, if we can do something, we want to help companies. we want to help companies create jobs. so i could have left that and you wouldn't have had a minor change. instead, i was asked by the real majors if they could do this and i said yeah. i want you to produce a lot of jobs. and numerous of the people, actually, all of the people that i've spoken to are very much on the way to already did it and that's why you have auto jobs increased and the man, i don't know. and i did great as you know with the autoworkers, the teamsters, unions. i did well. best numbers ever by a republican. and i have a lot of respect for those people. but sean fain who i don't know but wasn't a supporter although the autoworkers were big

supporters. he stayed donald trump is absolutely right on tariffs. he said what he's doing on tariffs is an incredible thing. and it's about time somebody had the guts to do it because we're going to save automanufacturing and i said to people when i was campaigning. you're going to have so many auto jobs. and i won the state of michigan as you know. and part of the reason i won is because i got a lot of autoworkers that voted for me, detroit, etc. people are going to be very surprised. >> ships manufacturing help a significant percentages now in taiwan you mentioned it in your address to congress. can you call on congress to overturn the chips -- which had bipartisan support in the last congress. why would you like to see this particular overturn? pres. trump: because it's hundreds of billions of dollars and it's aways of money. some people have already taken the money. it's very hard to qualify.

because they go by race. they go by gender. they go by all sorts of things. nobody's ever seen anything like it you won't be able to find those people. so i don't think anybody can qualify. they have so many different categories in order to qualify. you have to have so many of a return race, gender, a certain this, and it's -- i don't think they can qualify. but if they take the money, they better qualify because they'll be watching. but it's a tremendous waste of money. i didn't give the greatest chip company in the world 10 cents. they came here because of tariffs. because they didn't want to pay the tariffs. and they liked the results of the election. because they know that i'm very probusiness and projobs. i'm pro business not for business sake. i'm pro business because of jobs because businesses producing the jobs. >> president putin is bombing

ukraine. do you still believe him when he says he wants peace? pres. trump: i believe him. we're doing very well with russia. but right now, that's bomb the hell out of ukraine and ukraine -- i'm finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with ukraine and they don't have the cards. they don't have the cards. as you know, we're meeting in saudi arabia on some time next week early. and we're talking would i find that in terms of getting a final settlement? it may be easier dealing with russia which is surprising because they have all the cards. and they're bombing the hell out of them right now. and i put a statement in. a very strong statement. can't do that. you can't do that. we're trying to help them and ukraine has to get their job done. michael, could you come up here? i see michael over there. good i'm glad he's traveling all over the world. i just can saw him come on the door. could you give a little definition of what's going on,

please? >> sure. the president has been crystal clear and he's been clear to all sides. the fighting has to stop. both sides need to get to the table. we had a good engagement at both leaders have said only president trump could do so and only he has been able to do so. we had an initial engagement with the russian. the ukrainians has ad great opportunity to bind our economies together through that mineral deal. unfortunately, that didn't go so well. but we think we're going to get things back on track. secretary rubio, myself and ukrainian delegation will be meeting in saudi arabia next week to get these talks back on track. get the cease-fire in place, and drive peace home. >> you put out -- pres. trump: i think both parties want to settle. i think if i wasn't president, this war would have had no chance of settlement.

zero chance. but i think we're going to get pit settled and stopped. they're losing on average 2,000 soldiers a week. that's a lot of soldiers. do you agree, peter? >> it's a lot of soldiers on both sides, i agree. do you think that vladimir putin is taking advantage of the u.s. pause right now on intelligence and military aid to ukraine? pres. trump: i actually think he's doing what anybody else would do. i think he's -- i think he wants to get it stopped and settled and i think he's hitting them harder than he's been hitting them. and i think probably anybody in that position would be doing that right now. he wants to get it ended and i think ukraine wants to get it ended but i don't see -- it's crazy. they're taking tremendous punishment. i don't quite get pit. but i suspect, michael, he probably wants to get it ended. >> he does, mr. president. the russians are taking incredible losses on the front. pres. trump: they both are. >> that's meat grinder of people, of material, of national

treasure, and no one else has any solutions except to let this war continue forever. but i'll add the president has had multiple conversations and a visit from president marrone of france, we had the nato secretary general coming next week. and we had this meeting with the ukrainians we've had with it the russians. all of this in the president's first month in his leadership. we will continue to use his leadership and what leverage we have to get both sides at the peace table. it's not going to be easy. pres. trump: it would have never happened if i was president but it did happen. a left other things shouldn't have happened too. we shouldn't have 21 million people pouring into our country. many at home were criminals, including murderers, thousands of murderers. many killed. far more than one person. and they're roaming our streets. but tom and christine doing an

incredible job and we'll get them out of here. all these things shouldn't have happened. we shouldn't have inflation. we shouldn't have this horrible inflation where the prices have gone up. look at eggs. so we're doing -- we're doing a good job. we're doing a good job. >> in regards to the pause on military assistance to ukraine, you put out on your social media today that russia is pounding ukraine. pres. trump: that's right. >> why not provide ukraine with defenses and what happens when ukraine runs out of -- pres. trump: good question. because i have to know that they want to settle. i don't know that they want to settle. if they don't want to settle, we're out of there. because we want them to settle. and i'm doing it to stop that. more important than anything else. secondly, way down the line is the money. so we're in for $350 billion and europe this for $100 billion.

they should be in for the same or more than us. and, you know, i watched over the last week or so what's going on in europe. this thing could end up in world war iii if we don't get it settled. we got to get it settled. >> how confident are you that the -- and [indiscernible] pres. trump: yeah. i saw the hostages the other day. people that were not young. some young and some older, much older, and they gave -- it was hard for them to do it, actually. they gave statements as to what happened. i was asking what happens? how was it? i said did you see anybody in there that was kind out of the hundreds of people that you were seeing? you know, hamas? did someone wink at you and say don't worry, give you a piece of bread? no. were there any people that were

kind? i was shocked the answer was nobody. there was nobody. just the opposite. they would be slapped and punched. one man broke his ribs. he couldn't breathe for a month. it was brutal. i was so surprised. you think the would be a couple of people that would be kind, that would say, you're going to be ok. but they had none of that it's pretty amazing. brian? he's a kind person. >> according to -- pres. trump: although not to zelenskyy, he wasn't. but to trump, he's been good. go ahead. >> nice tie, by the way. pres. trump: thank you. i like yours, too. >> two question one of peace. why don't you think any other european countries are offering a peace deal? it seems like no one's coming to the table for peace except for you. pres. trump: yeah. it's a very good question. sometimes questions are answerable. they're in a very unusual

position. they don't know how to end the war. i think i do know how to end the war. despite the russia, russia, russia hoax, i've always had a good relationship with putin. then, you know, he wants to end the war. he wants to end it. and i think he's going to be more generous than he has to be. and that's pretty good. that means a lot of good things. because frankly, you could have made a great deal. if this war never started, you could have made a great deal. i don't think anything would have had to be given pup. this was cannot a war that we didn't start. for four years, it didn't start. i used to speak to vladimir about it. i used to speak to him about it at length. but there was no length he was going in. he knew there were going to be consequences. but it did start. i mean, think of what happened. inflation.

you have the world with ukraine and russia. october 7 would have never happened. israel, they had no money. iran had no money. iran was stone cold broke. and now they have a lot of money. but that's got to be the next thing you'll be talking about is iran what's going to happen with iran? there will be some interesting days ahead that's all i can tell you we're down to final strokes with iran. that's going to be an interesting time. and we'll see what happens. but we're down the final moments. we're at final moments. you can't let them have a nuclear weapon. i think that i would have had to deal with it one month after the rigged election of 2020. they were all set to make a deal. and then when i lost, they saw this person, who's a stupid person, very stupid person, and they said let's not make a deal and they were right he took the sanctions off. they became rich under biden. they went from having two money

to having $300 billion. all in a short period. oil builds up fast. nice living. they have a lot of nice oil wells. it's going to be a big thing. it's an interesting time in the history of the world. but we have a situation with iran that something's going to happen very soon, very, very soon you'll be talking about that very soon, i guess. and hopefully, we can have a peace deal. i'm not speaking out of strength or weakness. i would rather see a peace deal than the other. but the other will solve the problem. >> your allies are calling on you to pardon direct showman. are you considering partening him? pres. trump: no, i haven't even heard about it. >> in the first term, you may recall i broke the news that you were nominated for the nobel peace prize.

and the reason for that was the work that you led on the abram -- i spoke yesterday with the member of parliament that nominated you and se ahead what the nobel committee is looking for, from you, mr. president, is secure the guarantees for ukraine. is that a possibility, mr. president? pres. trump: so before i even think about that, i want to settle the war, get it finished. because if i'm not here, nobody's going to settle it. and president macron has said that. everybody's said that. we're pushing very hard. that's all i'm thinking about now. as far as the question about security later, that's the easy part. the hard part is getting it settled. we're losing -- sonali: and that was president trump there. of course there, are key headlines to be taken away from his conversation.

that rekidnap sal tariffs on canada may because early as today. he said that the will be modifications but very little. you have a market here that is still on tenterhooks the s&p 500 a session lows of the day. the nasdaq 100 which had already hit correction 10-year yield now down more than 1%. the 10-year yield at 423 and the two year that 3.92. we're minutes away from hearing from fed chair powell. first, we're going to go to washington because we have our own tyler kendall at the white house. respond here to the president's comments he did also speak about ukraine. he believes putin. he said if ukraine doesn't want to settle, we are out of there. but tariffs are the big story hitting the market and lot of uncertainty through the weekend. tyler: yeah, sonali, a lot of uncertainty. we could see rekidnap cal -- reciprocal tariffs.

he didn't say wednesday march 12 but april 2 had been the date that had been circled on the calendar. it is 24 hours after president trump gave some sort of reprieve to canada and mexico exempting the compliant goods. the goal here was for canada and mexicoing to move towards accomplishing some of president trump's border policies and they would like to see the u.s., those tariffs taken off the table ahead of that april 2 date so a host of other levees, such as chips, autos could go into place on april 2. it's important president trump talking about manufacturing and autonumbers in today's jobs report. he president trump divulge that the auto makers asking him for a

longer reprieve for a piece of him and he told them no. a lot shifting with a timeline for the white house has brushed off concerns about the uncertainty that is contributing to the market. sonali: tyler, we appreciate your time, looking forward to hearing from you later in the day, as we hear about the following from the latest announcement out of the oval office. want to check you back on markets now, because it is not only a brutal week, is now a brutal day as well. we are near session most of the s&p 500 when you had president trump the reciprocal tariffs on canadian lumber and gary could begin as soon as friday, threatening to disrupt cross-border trade. we look at the nasdaq 100, we are in correction territory. we are waiting for fed chair powell to speak. you can see the headlines. powell saying that the fed does not need to hurry, that they can wait for greater clarity.