>> the risks are rising. >> the risk of something deeper than a 10% drawdown is rising. >> the markets will recognize that volatility is here to stay. >> as an investor if you want to get defensive ahead of days, you had to do it two months ago but none of us stayed. >> there is something beyond trade driving markets and it is sort of a deterioration in the data. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. bloomberg surveillance starts

right now. coming into tuesday following the biggest one-day law so far. equity futures just about stabilizing after getting hammered. the sentiment shift has been wild in the cuts to corporate guidance begins. delta airlines out first, big declines after cutting the outlook. the airline pointing to recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty driving softness in domestic demand. that stock is down in the question we have who is next? lisa: the question is how quickly is this moving. earlier in january, ed bastian, the ceo said the supply and demand balance is as good as he could ever recall it being. saying they had visibility. suddenly something shifted dramatically and they said we believe this is a domestic issue. it is not just to his next and how quickly this is moving and how much the sentiment data will be the key driver. annmarie: later president trump

will sit down with a number of executives and get the groundwork on what is going on when it comes to the uncertainty. when you look at the survey data and the statements, people are concerned about the direction of travel on it comes to tariffs. this is co-ceo who leads the roundtable had this to say in january. "we will not always agree but i feel confident we will have an opportunity to have that discussion." that will happen tonight. jonathan: sentiment among corporate leaders coming into 2045 was sky high and we wanted to see that translate into better hiring an investment. small business confidence rocketed higher in this morning it drops to a four month low and plans to expand the wrong direction. lisa: it goes back to the stagflationary mix because not only is confidence going down but the share of firms in the small business confidence survey say that they plan to raise prices.

that level increased the most since april 2021. what you can see is price pressure increasing at the same time they have less confidence that customers will be spending as robustly. this is on the margins and fast-moving. because it is so quick, hard data is less important than soft data that indicates speed and direction. lisa: your number one issue -- jonathan: your number one issue has to be clarity and right now we are facing maxima and. at what point is an investor, what point do we pass peak maximum policy uncertainty? lisa: i wonder if he sees this as maximum uncertainty. he was in the interview he talked about how actually he is bearing -- being very clear about his goals and they have been laid out in terms of how they want to rearrange the u.s. economy. my question is does he recognize the in and out tariff strategy that he has and what the

consequences could be? or is this a feature not a bug and he is saying this was what will happen to rearrange the structure? annmarie: we have not even had the entire menu when it comes to tariffs. we will get that on april 2. we have 25% on aluminum and steel coming into play on tomorrow and retaliatory measures always coming from candy when it comes to ontarian -- ontario with electricity coming into the united states. this is just the beginning and not the end. jonathan: equity futures positive and bouncing back by .25%. later on, brian levitt following the worst day for the nasdaq 100 since 2022. rob casey ahead of the meeting with bank ceos and alastair pinkett are -- pinder after downgrading equities. we are looking to stocks to recover when growth drove stocks closer to correction. brian writing "tariffs are more

likely to lead to a more volvo investment environment. i would not expect a broad decline in risk assets or a recession in the economy. he joins us for more. what is the more optimistic view coming from? brian: what underpins it is a belief that we will start to see a move towards greater clarity. that gets called into question the longer that this persists. my view in writing it is that ultimately the administration will provide greater clarity. tariffs result in less optimal outcomes but as long as we know the rules of the game businesses will get through. and the belief that the federal reserve given the recent inversion will start to set on the more dovish signal. but the longer it takes for us to get there, we are at greater risk of these things happening. jonathan: these things happen often and you are waiting for that cathartic moment. this is the first day that feels like a real washout has been

occurring. over at btig, jonathan saying if you were hoping for an entry point this is your chance. have we had that moment yet? brian: i am not sure we have had the full moment. yesterday was the 93rd worst day of the nasdaq in 30 years. let us put it into perspective. i am not the best at excel, i am almost 50 years old. i brought up my spreadsheet and looked at the other 92 worst days and said what if i added money on each of those days where withdrew money? obviously you are better off adding money on each of those bad days. so i think that most investors do not think that way. you do not necessarily need the cathartic moment. i think there is more to go in terms of the process. even if you are investing and halfway through correction historically that has been good. lisa: what needs to happen for that moment, and then frankly,

for a steady climb. what kind of information do people need to see? brian: jonathan said the right word, policy clarity. i go back to 2018 thinking about when we were dealing with the u.s.-china trade war. what led to the bottoming in the market with the united states and china? they got together and said 90 day truce that does not fully eliminate uncertainty. the federal reserve said we are done raising rates. we might even be lowering rates in 2019. that policy clarity is how you move forward. so long we are in the environment where consumers do not know the rules and businesses do not know the rules you will be challenge for a wild. lisa: the bulls are telling us it does not matter if we have ongoing policy uncertainty on the fiscal side as long as the fed rescues markets and they cut rates by enough that you end up with a rally in a supported market. do you agree? brian: it cannot hurt but you

will need it beyond the federal reserve. you cannot be making the cuts that you are making on the fiscal side and creating uncertainty that you have on the trade side. i think the federal reserve just bringing rates to neutral can solve this. the reality is that most americans have fixed rate mortgages anyway and most americans did not recognize the move up and they will not feel it on the move down either. you will need more than that. you will need trade and fiscal policy getting to a place where we understand where it is going. annmarie: that uncertainty is why donald trump thinks he can have the negotiating power. how long do you think the market could sustain this uncertain period, because it could be months. brian: so the word sustain, we can fall further from here, right? we are used to 5% to 10% corrections. greater than 10 are less frequent but almost almost the

result of policy uncertainty. so, the market could continue to feel pressure until you finally understand what the rules would be. annmarie: do you sense there is a pain trip -- pain threshold? brian: we hope so. the idea of the trump put is being called into truck -- into question. i do not think this is in the ministration that wants to see the markets moving the way they are. they might have an ideology around trade that they want to pursue and they will not move away from it. but let us get with it and figure out what the tariff rates are going to be and move on. jonathan: 2018 they tolerated more than this? brian: we were down 20%. jonathan: is that what we are looking for? brian: it seems like. the s&p was 8.5% and we were down 8% when the bank of japan raised rates bonds. this seems more challenged of an environment than that. i come back to the fact that if you are an investor and invest

halfway through a downturn you should be ok. let us not try to get cute but it does not feel like the bottom is in. jonathan: consumer discretionary is down 20%. but the -- but they are participating down by 11%. what do you do with consumer exposed names. what do you think about when they say things like mid february, consumer, businesses and activity starting to stall. do you think it will be transitory? brian: i think it will be because this is an -- this is an economy that came in with fundamental strength. with all-time highs on the unemployment rate was near all-time lows. it is a consumer coming into shape and it is not over levered and an economy that is not over levered. it is a good backdrop. the consumer right now is tightening their belts a little bit because they do not know if they work for the federal

government and they are not sure what your employment picture will look like. if you are in the market, you are not sure where your household net worth is going. you tighten your belt a little bit but it does not feel like a recessionary environment. could you get there with a prolonged period of uncertainty? sure. but when you look at a path to a recession with big average and access and corporate spreads coming out, none of that exist today. until corporate spreads really start flowing out, i am not ready to think of this as a much more meaningful downturn in a severe recession. that is not what the picture is telling us. lisa: initially firms agreed with you but the downgrades are starting to pour in. we sought from hsbc and citigroup downgrading the u.s. equities to neutral and upgrading chinese equities. at what point would you agree with them and say that actually,

at the very least, u.s. exceptionalism is at least on pods? brian: we are upgrading european equities as well. we increased our exposure earlier this year and why it is not complicated. leading indicators in europe were climbing. the economic indices were surprising to the upside and the european central bank was easing and it was a better mix versus sentiment in the united states declining and appearing that valuations were heightened. you are getting cyclical bounces. everybody is waiting for things to be good in europe but the markets move better or worse. by the time you wait for good, it has already happened. the bigger question is not the cyclical balance but something more structural. with the investment that you are seeing and the borrowing you are likely to see out of germany, they have a chance. could we get 27 countries to agree on it? we will find out.

sometimes it is really simple. if you are easing policy it is a better backdrop. if you are pursuing tighter policies it is a worse backdrop and it with hooves investors to think about that part of the world that are being more stimulative. jonathan: citi making the point that the better news will come from x -- from elsewhere but not here. lisa: citigroup thinks it will come from china where hsbc exit will come from europe. it is like pick your poison where in the world that could have better information. jonathan: on that call, hsbc joining us later this hour so look out for that. small business confidence came in 12 minutes ago and it came in lower, the four month low. there was a nugget that caught my attention. the share of owners who said it would be a good time to expand the client for the most since april 2020 and spending plans matched an almost five year low. that is not what we want to see

coming into 2025. it is good to see you as always. with an update on stories elsewhere here is bloomberg brief. dani: i wanted to give you the details on the citi downgrade. it did downgrade on u.s. equities. neutral from overweight that the same time they upgraded china to overrate -- overweight citing the text back -- tech sector. hsbc similarly cut u.s. stocks neutral while upgrading europe. volkswagen shares surged after april put in a strong result and encouraged guidance. the automaker expects to maintain profitability despite demands in europe and rising trade tensions. volkswagen is under pressure to stabilize its performance in china where multiple -- where local manufacturers are taking market share. delta shares are plunging in the premarket trade down 10.6%. it could be its worst day since

2022. it cut profit expectations roughly by half on weakening travel demand. the ceo blamed a drop in consumer confidence believes that the impact will be temporary. jonathan: thank you. that stock down double digits. the one to watch going into the opening bell. up next losing hope for the trump but. >> the prices lower than we thought. maybe the uncertainty is hurting to some extent, but also there is something beyond just trade driving markets. and i think it is sort of a deterioration in the data. jonathan: robert casey joins us next. live from new york, good morning. ♪

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jonathan: check out shares of delta, down 11% in the guidance was only two months old that slashed it by almost half. in february spending stalled out reinforced by air safety events. they say that this will be transitory as they work our way through the rest of the year. lisa: we will find out as that weeks ago and policies get decided upon. they said that it is mostly a domestic issue and that uncertainty was creating a real paralysis when it came to travel. but the full-year forecast a the same. there is an expiration date on how long paralysis can continue before potential consequences. jonathan: the first big company to really slash expectations. equity futures bouncing back by zero point 4% after an ugly session yesterday. 0.5 on the nasdaq 500.

under surveillance, losing hope for the trump put. >> the powell plot is lower than we thought and we learn more about that last week also i think that the strike price on the trump put is lower. maybe the uncertainty is hurting to some extent but also, there is something beyond just trade driving markets and i think it is sort of a deterioration in the data and what it means for the outlook going forward. jonathan: president trump with top ceos and bank executives as markets face uncertainty and recession fears. tyler kendall joins us for more. this could be box office later this afternoon. tyler: we are expecting those members to seek some firmer guidance from president trump as the white house continues to not give us any indication that they plan to change policy rollout which has been marked by so uncertain -- so much uncertainty and contributed to a shift in

market sentiment and 50 days is how long president trump has been in office. yesterday a statement hit with a white house official appearing to blame this on emotions instead of fundamentals writing "we want to emphasize we are seeing a strong divergence of the animal spirits of the stock market. what we are actually seeing unfold by -- from businesses." we have been pushed towards recent examples of investment such as last week, tsmc pointing out $100 billion in new investment as evidence that these plans that the white house is starting to put into will have longer-term impacts. at the same time the question becomes will the white house make any assurances of any kind as we try to seek more certainty from this white house on whether or not they will continue to double down that this is part of a broader macroeconomic plan and consumers and investors need to be patient. i had the chance to catch up

with kevin hassett at the white house told me that until the full policy plans are implemented there is only so much we can do to counter what the white house has been pushing as structural issues left behind by the biden administration. how long that argument good -- couldn't go on fort remains to be seen. 5:00 p.m. eastern is when president trump will address the business roundtable. we are chasing down who will be in the room, but they will want some firmer guidance. jonathan: you know the cheap out, biden data. lisa: we need to come up with policies -- jonathan: it is a stretch to suggest that is biden data. lisa: that raises a question of how seriously president trouble take it when he meets with the business roundtable. jonathan: rob casey is with us. good morning. chuck robbins leads that business roundtable of cisco. we could the expecting jamie dimon and jane fraser.

what do you think the message will be? rob: have a little patience and faith and may be look through a little bit of the uncertainty we have seen. now, that is going to be the message and i'm not sure it lands. annmarie: when it comes to chuck robbins we talked about the wildcard in terms of trade policy. he said we want to see a surgical approach and are we seeing anything of that when it comes to what they are doing on tariffs? rob: the threat has been a blunt instrument but not a scapula approach. going forward, could it be sectoral or pulled back a little bit? i think so. we are not going to see universal tariffs, that is baked in. we do not think on april 2 we will see a snapback on mexico and canada. maybe it gets a little bit more targeted or broadly targeted towards europe, generally speaking. but it is a blunt instrument and we have not seen the very scott

besson preferment for a targeted approach. annmarie: is that enough to push the administration to hold back on the 25% we are expecting tomorrow on aluminum and steel? rob: no. frankly that is a domestic industry that president trump wants to protect and it has asked for the tariffs. unlike autos that have been pushing back, aluminum and steel want to be protected. they want the tariffs on, so we expect they will be. lisa: to build at what annmarie is getting at, that there will be a trump put in that will be the ultimate check that if the market tumbled there would be a response. what are we saying now is the check? rob: i think there still is a trump put it is a lower and more painful. but, as we go back over the course of the past 50 days, the vast majority of threats that trump has made he has not

followed through or reversed. lisa: maybe so, but that has not given a boost to markets and we have not seen the big one coming on april 2. some say that maybe it is the polls and they are hanging in there and that frankly support is a little bit lower than where it was but it is still significantly above where it was the last time around. do you agree with that idea? rob: not in the sense that trump is looking at the polls day-to-day. a couple of clients are saying we will push back on the idea that he will run again in 3.5 years, and i would not expect that. the mechanism for the put is not trump polls but congressional polls. if i am running in a red or purple district i am saying please allow me to run on something positive. we have not seen that so far. annmarie: he lashed out at one congressman saying that i will primary you that will hit the continuing resolution.

does it pass? rob: we think it could pass the house we do not think it passes the senate. democrats have to take a stand somewhere. this is the only place they can. it comes to reconciliation they cannot do anything to stop it. when it comes to this er, -- this cr, we think that even if the republicans can get over the line it does not take that way. annmarie: they would rather take the blame potentially for shutting down the government? rob: and we are hearing democrats go back and forth but yes. this is not a clean cr so democrats will try to message that. we have not seen much messaging over the pass of 50 days at all and that is assuming that republicans can get this over the line. it is not only massey who is a no but trump has made calls to get others over the line. and they obviously, and we have set it every day, they have a

very slim majority because some democrats are staying home, but it will be really rough. jonathan: good to see you. rob casey. equity futures are bouncing back by point we percent. yesterday the biggest one-day loss of the year so far. on the nasdaq 100 the biggest one-day loss going back to 2022. there have been downgrades including this one and we will catch up with hsbc after downgrading u.s. equities to neutral. and upgrading the rest of the world. we need to talk about europe with hsbc in a moment. live from new york city, this is bloomberg tv. ♪

jonathan: check out the scores. equity futures bouncing back from yesterday's losses but not much of a bounce. .4% on the s&p. nasdaq up by .5%. yesterday the biggest daily loss of 2025, taking the losses to 9% from the all-time highs of only a month ago. those all-time highs feel like a lifetime ago. lisa: let's put that into market capitalization perspective. the nasdaq is down $4.2 trillion worth of market capitalization.

a massive amount that's been removed from this equity market. jonathan: discretionary stocks led by tesla. other names have been hammered. the banks wiping out the gains from the postelection rally. lisa: since february 18, katie w bank index is down almost 16%. that is traumatic. you have to wonder how much is his reverses of the trade from last year at how much this is looking at exactly what the nfib survey pointed to. stasis when it comes to investment and the banking. jonathan: the only good news is bonds rallied. particularly on the front end of the curve. this morning up by two. 10-year at 421.87. lisa mentioned the small business survey at a four-month low. plans to expand dropping as well. everything moving in the wrong

direction at the moment in the survey data. foreign exchange and what's happening with the euro. euro at about 108.88. getting closer and closer to 109. shares of delta airlines falling after the company delivered a disappointing forecast. cutting profit expectations for the first quarter roughly by half on weakening travel demand. just stock down 11%. lisa: the problem is the pace of the decline. the ceo came out and said demand is about as strong as it's ever been. frankly, the supply picture is very balanced and very good. all of a sudden people are not traveling anymore. he said this is a u.s. domestic issue. he expects it to subside with the speed will get people's concern. the reason soft data might be more important to people than backward looking hard data that

might have looked different month ago. jonathan: you can make up a lot of excuses. the first quarter for the airlines is not great. it is difficult to predict. this is reinforced by the air travel safety events of the last month as well that made people nervous. maybe we will work our way through this. there are obvious things to pointed. if your federal worker, i would not be taking a vacation. i would be canceling vacations. a lot of people around this people, these things can unravel and bleed out there the economy quickly. lisa: it is not only the threat of potentially losing your job. if you have lack of conviction, how do you make deals? these are the things we have seen trickling into the soft data. delta seeing the same full-year forecast. where does that shift the trajectory and set it being a short-term? jonathan: we are looking for other airlines draw the next couple of days. canada slapping at 25% surcharge

on electricity and retaliation for donald trump's tariffs ahead of fresh u.s. tariffs on steel and aluminum taking effect tomorrow. annmarie: is the first blow the agenda. these retaliations in terms of energy ontario provides in the u.s. donald last night said we don't need your cars, your lumber, your energy and soon you will find that out. i spoke to a ceo of a lumber company in maine. all of her coming from canada. we ship our product to canada and they bring back the finished material. this is going to get tough. doug ford yesterday spoke to kaylee and joe -- kailey and joann said trump has unleashed patriotism and canada they have not seen -- in canada they have not seen. jonathan: very difficult to forecast the consequences of increased tariffs because of how

others might respond to it. also for how the market responds as well. one thing that surprised us all, dollar weaker, not stronger. the euro stronger this morning. we are up 5.4%. -- .4%. germany's greens ready to negotiate a defense spending deal after a package that would at least hundreds of billions of euros in spending. the eu looking to boost investment and prepare for expected tariffs from donald trump. oli crook joins us from germany. walk us through what you are hearing from the likes of vw about the latest push in europe. oliver: you talk about uncertainty on the question of tariffs. this is a front and center here in germany. this is one of the biggest manufacturing sites in the world. probably the biggest factory in germany. this is where volkswagen made

its cars historically. huge assembly lines and massive in terms of generating an output of cars. this is in the center of the discussion. volkswagen has had to face the reality of a much tighter squeeze in china. they had of slower situation here in europe. they had to get down assembly lines. they are moving this to two. what they had to focus on is the growth market. that is the united states. that is what is coming into complete disarray now. i spoke to the cfo earlier. nobody wants to give you a scenario of what 25% tariffs look like. they say wait and see. listen to what the chief financial officer had to say to me earlier. >> we feel already like an american company. we operate a huge factory with thousands of people there. volkswagen group of america employs more than 20,000 plus people. creating safe and well-paid jobs. we invested in north carolina. these should be taken into account when talking about

tariffs and about the u.s. oliver: you can hear it from the executives, the pitch the donald trump or weather should be exempt from tariffs. it is not just about between europe and united states. a huge part of the volkswagen strategy is establishing a battery factory in canada. establishing the vw golf factory in mexico. i spoke to a number of executives in the last 24 hours, pressing them away -- on what tariffs mean. this is a market they would to double their market share in. they will hold onto it until the bitter end. if that means augmenting capacity in the u.s., i suspect they are ready to do it. jonathan: those plans being upended in the last month or so. appreciate the breakdown. oli crook with the latest on vw and the challenges they face right now. these are the challenges investors face. they are fleeing into european markets and downgrading u.s.

equities. alastair pinder writing, "we seem to trump victory would reinforce u.s. exceptionalism. we are upgrading europe to overweight. we are downgrading the u.s. to neutral." alastair, good morning. alastair: thank you for having me. jonathan: the start of the year you would think what a lot of people would think. u.s. exceptionalism. what changed? alastair: we underestimated the potential for governance to retaliate -- governments to retaliate to tariff, and support for ukraine and defense for nato with their own fiscal stimulus. we saw this in china. they are now think this in europe with germany and barking on what seems to be pretty sizable fiscal stimulus. almost one trillion euros between defense spending and infrastructure spending. for me, the catalyst is the infrastructure spending here. that has the real repercussions

for economic growth. we are starting at a place where your looks very cheap. completely disowned by investors. it was trading at a significant discount to u.s. markets. we are now seeing the stars kind of align. you mentioned the euro. wrote the majority of the year it was depreciating. that is a modest tailwind for earnings as well. it is turning very favorable for europe. lisa: we have been talking to whether it is the u.s. pushing money out of the domestic market or the rest of the world sucking money out of the united states market. where do you fall on that question at a time where it is less about u.s. policy and more about that are opportunities elsewhere? alastair: it is definitely the latter. one thing we are seeing that will get you excited going into other markets, you have to see investment opportunities. the biggest conviction causes at the moment has been china and europe. both have been driven by their own catalysts.

and china, fiscal policy and deepseek. that has been driving the internet sector. in europe, the shift in mindset of governments which will unleash this fiscal spending and support economic growth. i think that is what will drive people to europe. lisa: what is the risk this is all good, you get this incredible rally in european equities until april 2, and then donald trump comes out with a big one? all of a sudden people think about what the financial repercussions are for places like europe. suddenly the fairytales are over and you're dealing with fights in different legislative bodies over what kind of spending you can have. how big of a risk is that? alastair: 25% of european equity markets comes from the u.s. that's a lot. a lot of that is not exposed to tariffs. services. software and services will get tariffed. a lot of companies produce in

the u.s. and sell in the u.s. what do we think is exposed to tariffs? less than 10% of revenue. it is very specific in certain sectors. the consumer staples, some discretionary, and autos. outside of that, in the industrials, the tech, the financials, they will be much more resilient to the tariff risk. annmarie: would you advise and avoid he goes tariff-vulnerable sectors? alastair: that would be our policy. to be more sheltered into areas which are resilient to tariffs. that's on a global basis. that is the theme in the u.s. where we would be more cautious on the consumer staples sector where the import a lot and they are more vulnerable to tariffs. it's also the case people in china, the equity market revenue is negligible. it doesn't make a difference.

i think china is actually more of a defensive play. jonathan: is zero point the administration steps in? -- is there a point the administration steps in? is there a pain threshold for the federal reserve as well? i imagine we are not close right now but how much closer are we? alastair: yeah. i don't think we are at that point but if you look at what markets are pricing, talk about the recession risk, we are pricing and a lot of recession risk at this point. -- pricing in a lot of recession risk at this point. if you look at the typical equity market performance during recessions, it's around 10% to 50% downside. we are pretty -- 15% downside. we are pretty much there. cannick a lower? yes, but you will see bond yields moving lower in the fed put come in. you are right in to your point,

we have a risk event on the second of april. i think the outlook is much more favorable. jonathan: do you think of you about the growth scare inequities has been confirmed by fixed income? we saw high yields spread pull out a little yesterday. is it confirmed in high-yield? alastair: it is confirmed by what we are seeing in the bond yield. you are seeing that rollover sharply. the underperformance of cyclical stocks versus defensive's. yes, we are seeing that reflected across most asset classes. jonathan: alastair pinder, thank you for joining us. downgrading u.s. equities. we saw something similar from citi in the last 24 hours. hi yields want to watch. spread to start no whiten out. levels of around 300 basis points, people might say that is pretty tight. lisa: some could argue it is not the canary in the coal mining used to be because of the dampening effect of private credit. that is why alastair went to the 10-year yield. i'm curious to get cpi tomorrow.

a question of if it comes in hotter than expected and inflationary pressures are still there, how much does that force the fed's hand to raise the bar higher for them to really provide that relief valve on the other side with potential cuts? jonathan: what is worse with an -- then economic slowdown? an economic slowdown the fed cannot respond to. lisa: it is one to watch at a time when that is one of the concerns. jonathan: bearish. lisa: the market yesterday -- what do you want to do? jonathan: take a shower. not a suggestion. 131% on the s&p. here is her bloomberg brief with dani burger. dani: breaking news. shares of southwest down to .7% in the premarket. it is ending is free back policy. customers will be charged for the first and second checked bags almost a whole top-tier loyalty status or are traveling on a business fair. the changes apply to flights both honor after may 28.

oracle shares lower in the premarket, down by nearly 2%. it had disappointing quarterly results. sales and profit forecast for the current quarter also fell short of analyst estimates. oracle resorted -- reported a surge in booking on the cloud business will boost revenue for the next two fiscal years. elon musk has blamed what he calls a massive cyberattack for widespread disruptions on his social media platforms x. tens of thousands of users globally reported intermittent outages on the app with new posts failing to look for users. dark storm, a pro-palestinian so-called active is group -- hacktivist group took credit. jonathan: more from dani in 30 minutes. tesla in the headlights. >> your stock is way down. you have been criticized left and right. >> it is tough going. i think we are doing the right thing here.

>> how do your other businesses? >> with great difficulty. jonathan: tesla stock having great difficulty. joanne feeney will join us to talk about that and a lot more. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. investment opportunities the answer is are everywhere you turn.

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jonathan: equities a little firmer on the s&p. on the nasdaq, terrible day yesterday. under surveillance this morning, tesla in the headlights. >> your stock is way down. if you have been criticized left and right. why are you doing this? >> it is tough going but i think we're doing the right thing. >> how are you running your other businesses? >> with great difficulty. >> there is no turning back?

>> i'm trying to make government more efficient, eliminate waste and fraud, and so far we are making good progress. jonathan: elon musk's tesla facing its worst day in four years. the stock looking to recover this morning after tumbling 15% yesterday. the nasdaq 100 posting its worst day since 2022 with more than $1 trillion in value wiped out. joanne feeney joins us now for more. it's been too long. welcome back to the program. let's talk about this correction in big tech. what is driving it and is now the time to step back and? -- back in? joanne: there's a lot of fear the market. we have seen the vix spike. it centered on uncertainty investors in businesses face with the back-and-forth of potential tariffs, not just on canada and mexico, but europe and on specific industries.

whether it is timber or aluminum and steel. that level of uncertainty creates a lot of challenges. they tend in these moments to want to pull back on things that have an irreversible component to them. capital investments and even hiring. it is not easy to fire people when you hire them. this is freezing in place. the delta results helped confirm that. business travelers are down. even consumer traveling is down. that is a sign of businesses tightening their belts and saying let's wait and see what happens. lisa: let's look on the bright side. is that good? a lot of people are optimistic about u.s. dynamism. now you can get it at a discount. why not going now? -- go in now? joanne: there are good opportunities now. there is pretty good growth drivers in some areas of the

economy. the u.s. as a whole doesn't have to be exceptional for there to be good opportunities. the ai revolution is still ongoing. there's not a lot happening out that is likely to disrupt that. we are still seeing major investments in data centers. even after the deepseek scare, companies putting their money where their mouths are are saying there's a lot we want to be able to do with ai and we will could invest -- and we will invest and make that happen. there are better opportunities now than there were a few weeks ago. lisa: are you buying? joanne: we have pretty full positions where we want to. we have owned nvidia for a long time and broadcom for 10 years. we have owned a few select others in the software space like service now. we don't think it is wise to the time this market. we don't know when sentiment is going to change. there's been a risk off trade. investors that were not diversified are trying to get

diversified so we are seeing other stocks he relatively well. it is always tricky to say uncertainty, there's a lot of it. maybe we should back off her growth. if you're a long-term investor, this might be a time if you don't have a full position in names like the ones i mentioned, it's an opportunity to get in. even though these things can still go down for a while longer as uncertainty plays out. annmarie: we showed how bad of a day tesla had yesterday. will there be political blowback, not just when it comes to tesla and registrations plummet when it comes to those cars being bought in germany because elon musk and backing afd, but places like canada? will there be a boycott of american goods? joanne: we are starting to see that in canada. they are taking american liquor off the shelves. we have seen surveys that show canadians are buying less goods at of america, whether from amazon or others. we are seeing that. if you look back historically,

we have seen this before. whether it was the 2018 tariffs, all the way back to smoot-hawley. we saw other countries respond either with attala terry tariffs -- retaliatory tariffs or was simply protests. back in the smoot-hawley era, exports to those countries dropped as much as 20%. those are real concerns. that is why you can position away from some of the products squarely in the headlights of this sort of risk. invest in more domestic companies. mcdonald's, altria. things were demand is less elastic. these kinds of companies are likely to do better in this kind of environment. jonathan: how useful is that period as a playbook? the drawback in 2018 was more substantial than what we have seen on the s&p 500. joanne: it is hard to tell, jonathan. clearly the tariffs being

bandied about now are much bigger than those in 2018. if they were to go into effect, the economic effects would be larger. now we have something we did not have back in 2018. we have this ai revolution. it is not just for the picks and shovels providers like nvidia and broadcom. it is for those that can adopt ai to make your business is more productive or create new products. we have a growth engine that is identifiable and multisector that we did not have back then. jonathan: appreciate your time is always. breaking down the stock picks this morning, joanne feeney of advisors capital management. let's talk about delta, down in the premarket by close to 10% after slashing their outlook for q1. so much of this is about feelings. this is more than that. they are telling you what consumers and businesses have been doing since mid february. those people have been pulling back. lisa: what they have been doing

is nothing and nothing has a cost. nothing is a choice. there's a question of how long this can continue before it starts showing up in the hard data and has lasting effects. delta is saying there is reversibility to this. what does president trump have to say today at the business roundtable to get the confidence of business ceos? annmarie: he will get a bit of a grilling. when you have the delta executives saying consumer spending started to stall. they are saying they are not telling us when they will do this. they are not booking flights. delta is seeing this more domestically. i wonder if this puts a cap on u.s. exceptionalism. jonathan: the president and secretary bessent have been consistent. are they going to change the message today? lisa: you have to imagine they will stick with it. jonathan: let's see if it changes. up next, scott lincicome, holly o'neill, kelsey berro, the

second hour of "bloomberg surveillance" up next. ♪

>> the focus has shifted dramatically to the downside in growth risk for the u.s. economy. >> we had a weaker view of the economy going into this year already and we have seen that in the data. >> high inflation will become problematic for the megan psyche. >> the analyst minutes has been replaced by recession fears. >> i think it is a washington, d.c. recession. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance."

jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. the second hour of "bloomberg surveillance" starts now. your day had looked like this. three things to watch this morning. more economic data. look for jobs, jobs openings. look out for the press briefing from the white house this afternoon. this one. five clock p.m. eastern time, the president death -- 5:00 p.m. eastern time, the president sitting down with ceos for the business roundtable. we could see jamie dimon, james fraser in the room and washington, d.c. at the white house when we came into 2025 with business confidence skyhigh. that confidence slowly being eroded on the back of the policy uncertainty over the last month. lisa: you asked is there a reason to change the stance that had already, essentially this is by design. stick with us. we are going to have a grand plan.

it will take time. any reason for them to change that tone now within the trump administration when they talk to business executives when there is a wobble in the stock market? they said there is a transition period, a detox period, and that will be the tension this afternoon. jonathan: we will see a series of downgrades from economists and investors. morgan stanley downgraded the growth outlook for america. investors doing the same thing. we spoke to hsbc about 25 is ago. they downgraded u.s. equities. citigroup did the same thing. better news will come from elsewhere than from the united states for the next, months. we want some policy clarity around things like tariffs. maybe for the next several weeks we will not get it. annmarie: that is the one question i think all these executives that are going to have a chance to speak to the president today at 5:00 p.m. are going to ask. they want a dialogue and they

want some sort of clarity when it comes to the tariffs and trade headlines. when you see advisors close to the president, something else people are pushing for now and it shows the administration is concerned about the market downturn even though they doubled down on their language. they want to bring up the tax cuts. the sequencing is key here. all these executives want to know when that bill might get signed. jonathan: until recently this has been talking feelings. in the soft data things are not going so well. we feel a certain way. now i think it is action. with the move from delta airlines in the last one to four hours, after the close yesterday, slashing the outlook, the company saying this . "a recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness and domestic demand." ed bastian saying in mid february companies, consumers,

activities started to stall. maybe that is transitory and it bounces back in the next several months. the fear is it won't. lisa: the fear it is happening so quickly. ed bastian said the supply-demand balance is as good as i can recall it being as we look into 2025. just two much later, a complete we different story. they are maintaining full-year forecast but the speed -- we keep going back to this -- the speed of the shift in tone is shocking and has gotten people's attention. we asked this question before. who is going to be next at a time when this is really going to be the ongoing theme? jonathan: the answer is american airlines. the revenue environment was weaker than expected. the other for the first quarter, adjusted loss per share of 60% -- $.60 to $.80. they say revenue environment weaker than expected. they cite flight 5242 -- 5342. this is what delta brought up.

it is difficult to disconnect the things. on the one and you have a slowdown in spending. and you have the why. are people worried about the economy or flightsafety? it is hard to divorce the two and we will see that in the next several months. lisa: ed bastian did refer to this yesterday were he said that there was some kind of ramification from that american air -- from that. american air siding that as well. we fed issues for a while. it does not seem to have impeded demand to agreed to greet. is there something else going on? whether this is confirmation bias or idiosyncratic, we've heard from walmart and warnings from the likes of target and best buy. this is why not only is president trump's stance of the meeting going to be important, but if the guidance continues it is hard to dismiss this as an idiosyncrasy related to air light save -- air flightsafety. -- flight safety.

jonathan: even before the moves the five-day move was down 10% on american. united down 15%. delta down by 14. is a lot more than just air safety issues. it's a lot more than that. lisa: we talked about this. you have to wonder, being too gloomy -- am i being too gloomy? if companies are not going to be getting certain federal contracts or there's a paralysis with respect to business investment, why would you double down on travel? why would you double down on taking vacations? how any people are taking long vacations as they try to deal with the barrage of headlines? not many. especially on wall street or business. jonathan: i think this is the reality of the situation. i said repeatedly i want them to succeed. i want anyone in the white house to succeed. i want to see better hiring,

more investment, higher levels of growth at a time when we were blessed with decent levels of growth. confidence into 2025 was skyhigh. this was going to be a business from the administration. we wanted to see that translate into better hiring, better investment. confidence for businesses, particularly small business has started to decline. we saw that with the small business confidence server this morning. the plans for hiring, for investment. look for the plans for investment. the shares of -- the share of owners who said it is the best is the lowest since april 2020. for the administration, that is not biden data. that is trump data. annmarie: you see that when it shows up with consumer surveys. bc the doge -- you can see the doge the fact. companies putting price hikes on consumers and they are paying more for everyday goods, let alone how do you think about taking a vacation. what is so different in trump 2.0 was the sequencing. trump's last taxes before

beginning the trade war -- trump slashed taxes before beginning the trade war. now is a fog of uncertainty before we even get to the tax bill. jonathan: there is a chance to get to a better place. we understand what they are trying to achieve, rebalance the economy away from public spending towards the private sector. even the president acknowledges there will be some disruption in between. this is the kind of disruption we are getting now. the data speak for itself. lisa: what are the release valves? there's the trump put. if the market goes down too much, president would come out and respond. that has been pushed off. there's the fed put, that the fed will come to the rescue. that is why cpi data will be so important tomorrow and the survey from the nfib and comedies looking to raise prices the highest pace going back to 2021 raises concerns. does that push off some of the fed relief valve? these are question people are trying to grapple with at a time

when there's a lot of uncertainty and people are trying to figure out the breakpoint where they can get some clarity. annmarie: small business optimism retreating will get the administration's attention. the only comment yesterday was that they think there is that a virgins between what they are seeing in the stock market and animal spirits versus what they see unfolding for businesses and business leaders. they think that is more important. we look at business leaders today and they are concerned. jonathan: welcome to the program. equity futures just about bouncing back but that fate. that fades. -- but that fades. small business optimism falling to a four-month low. michael mckee, what underpins the shift below are question mark -- shift lower? michael: 104 is the second highest level ever. it is not like the economy has fallen off a cliff. nobody knows what is coming next. you see the 10 different

indicators of the small business owners fill out, seven were negative. three were positive but the ones that were positive were not particularly great. more job openings and they can fill. earnings trends up a little bit. expecting easier credit conditions up by a little bit. that would suggest maybe people thinking things are bad enough that we will start to see the fed cut interest rates again. lisa: can you give us a sense of how much of an about-face this is at a time when as john mentioned coming into this year confidence amongst small businesses was skyhigh? michael: it's a big about-face, not only for small business but for large businesses as well. throughout the campaign donald trump said on day one i will -- day one has coming on. this is the 51st day. he hasn't yet. we have not seen much except the turmoil of doge firings in washington.

people are starting to say wait a minute, what is actually going on here? why all of a sudden are we talking about pain instead of immediate gain. annmarie: does this bring up a different conversation at the fed? we can see fed cuts sooner? michael: bring up, maybe. the fed is stuck like everyone else and not knowing what is going to happen. we have tomorrow tariffs on steel and aluminum. the first week in aircrew, --april, tariffs on mexico and canada and china and who knows who else. the fed will sit tight because the economy is still growing. inflation is still coming down, very slowly but still coming down. they don't have to move. they will be as quiet as possible about the outlook going forward. we have to let the markets divide what the fed is -- divine what the fed is going to do. jonathan: that meaning is a week from tomorrow.

michael mckee breaking down the softer than inspected small business confidence print in the last 60 minutes. tomorrow, march 19 -- a week from tomorrow, march 19, the fed has to -- there will be no action next week. then they have to put up forecasts. putting up forecasts gets so much harder than it was the last time they did this. lisa: why don't they just put out some numbers and say they are made up? everyone knows that. the dot plot has been gaining less relevance over the years. it's been wrong again and again. do you dismiss that and start to talk about things like what they have been talking about, weighing the idea of softening growth with sticky inflation? how do they measure those two things? jonathan: equity futures posited by about .2%. let's get stories elsewhere, including the latest on the airline sector with dani burger. dani: another airline, another downward outlook. american falling 3.4% in the

premarket. they cut their forecast and reported weaker than expected revenue in this environment. american expect a loss of 60 since the $.80 per share -- $.60 to 80% per share -- $.80 per share. the freedom caucus has passed a stopgap package that would free spending for six months. it would add $6 billion to defense and $440 million to immigration enforcement while cutting irs funds by $20 billion. in sports, manchester united is planning to build a new 100,000 seat stadium in a bid to modernize facilities. the stadium will be built next to the current home where the club has played for the last 115 years. they did not say how much the stadium would cost or how long construction would take. it is said to become the largest stadium in the u.k.

that is your brief. jonathan: they have to make sure they don't get relegated first. lisa: who was gloomy now? jonathan: i'm going to hate that. i'm not taking it back. canada retaliates. >> when the market speaks, you have to listen. the market is speaking. ceos are speaking. people are speaking out. i don't believe in protectionism between your closest friends and allies in the entire world. jonathan: up next, scott lincicome. from new york city, good morning. ♪

jonathan: unwinding a fraction

of yesterday's moves on the equity market. yesterday the biggest one-day loss of 2025 so far in the bond market. yields lower 11 basis points. further along the curve, 10-year up today would not even a single basis point. 422.25. under surveillance, canada retaliates. >> there is one person that will put us in a recession and that is president trump. when the market speaks, you have to listen. the market is speaking. ceos are speaking. people are speaking out. why is he doing this to his largest customer in the world, canada? no one buys more products of the u.s. and canada does, including autos. i don't believe in protectionism with your closest friends and allies in the entire world. jonathan: canada responding to president trump's tariffs by slapping a 20 5% surcharge on the electricity provides to

minnesota, michigan, and new york. trump responding untrue social. "ontario announced a 25% surcharge on electricity, of all things, and you're not even allowed to do that. because our tariffs are reciprocal, we'll just get it all back on april 2. tyler, that relationship is getting more tense by the day. tyler: later on in the interview the premier of ontario said he's coordinating closely with mark carney, who over the weekend in his victory speech said that canada is now clouded by dark days brought on by a country they can no longer trust. meeting the u.s. canadian consumers have started to boycott u.s. goods, as well as the use of amazon. as we look forward, this administration keeps pushing us towards those for cervical tariffs on april --reciprocal tariffs on april 2. first is tomorrow, the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. canada is the number one

exporter of aluminum to this country. at the moment the white house is telling us not to expect any sort of modifications. that is the word they used, meaning exemptions or carveouts. all that can change. while producers have largely applauded the move domestic reducers wanted to see this. this also applies to those downstream metal products. things like car bumpers and wires. we are watching closely to see if manufacturers indicate they will pass the higher costs onto consumers. while we have been talking about how it appears, the white house has a higher tolerance when it comes to a market selloff. we will have to see if consumers have a higher tolerance for a tick up in prices and if that is a check on this administration's policies since president trump has been pushing he will break down prices. annmarie: the president will sit down with ceos today. were you expecting to happen at the business roundtable? tyler: as you have been discussing, no doubt they will want some former -- firmer

guidance and clarity when it comes to president trump's tariff plants and the uncertainty surrounding them. the last time president trump addressed the business roundtable was when he floated that he would put forward a lower corporate tax rate. there's no doubt they are going to be looking for any sort of assurances when it comes to president trump's tax cut agenda, which is starting to face and pushed in the u.s. congress. not necessarily that lawmakers don't what to see it through but how it is going to get through, particularly whether or not his 2017 tax cut plan can be made permanent or the other tax priorities like no taxes on tips, overtime pay, or social security can be on the table and if republicans can find those pay fors? jonathan: joining us to extend the conversation is scott lincicome. welcome back to the program. good to see you. can you think of a historical parallel that speaks to the moment we are in right now regarding trade?

scott: you would have to go back a long way. you are looking at smoot-hawley level tariffs if these reciprocal ones kick in and every thing is we have so far. it really has been that long. one of the mistakes people make is looking at the first trump era and saying that didn't hurt the economy that much. we are talking in terms of the size of the tariffs and the speed of them. it dwarfs anything we saw last time around. markets are reacting accordingly. annmarie: we see trading partners react. ontario putting tariffs on electricity to certain states. what kind of retaliatory measures are you expecting? scott: the thing on looking at most are asymmetric retaliations. not tit-for-tat tariffs on goods. from the united states. those tariffs will hurt canada or mexico or china as well. there are a lot of other ways

that countries can retaliate against u.s. businesses that are less painful for them and more painful for the united states. you mentioned export taxes on electricity, boycotting american liquor in canadian liquor stores . the chinese removing business licenses for certain american multinationals. they are all sorts of ways that companies or governments can go after u.s. interests without simply slapping tariffs on stuff. annmarie: we saw carveouts and exemptions from downstream companies, for the companies that may be make products when it comes to steel and aluminum which get tariffs tomorrow. the respect any exemptions? -- do you expect any exemptions? scott: and the longer term there has to be. we have to wait and see. we are not just talking about steel and aluminum that is more expensive in the united states.

in a lot of cases you're talking about steel and aluminum that isn't made in the united states. in some cases will never be made here because it is specialty items. in those cases, american manufacturers have to eat the tariff. that is a major cost hit for a lot of companies that produce things that are really reliant on those metals. lisa: there is the ultimate goal of bringing production back to the united states. this is something the president talked about, which is why i was struck by an automotive news study that shows about one third of u.s. auto parts suppliers with move production out of united states if 25% tariffs on canada and mexico stick. can you explain this counterintuitive trend that might do the exact opposite of bringing manufacturing to the united states? scott: we have to remember two things. one is that there are places that have lower production costs than the united states.

, second is that the u.s. consumer market is not driving the global economy bus. for a lot of companies that have business elsewhere there isn't an incentive to move your business you are not serving united states offshore to places i don't have high tariffs and all this uncertainty and don't have the threat of retaliation. it's a numbers game for a lot of these companies. often times, you know, the economic reality as the numbers make more sense to move your business out of north america, out of the united states into pull it in. lisa: some people argue the ultimate goal is something everybody can get around. reducing waste in the government. the idea of broadening out of the middle class and bringing certain types of business back to the united states. a lot of people have been talking about that on both sides of the aisle. anything you see going forward that really does give you hope

and optimism that even some of these negotiations will ultimately lead to lower tariffs or there could be some sort of clarity that comes after april 2 that gets us closer to that place? scott: i wish i could be optimistic here. the last couple of months don't give me grounds for confidence. yes, you could see a few tariff reductions in a few markets in lowering tariffs on lowering cycles. the europeans might be trying to lower tariffs on cars. the reality is, this shoot first and negotiate later strategy creates intense geopolitical and political problems for foreign countries. it is difficult for leaders that have to win their own elections are brought to cave to donald trump -- abroad to cave to donald trump and liberalize tariffs. over the years countries have engaged in free trade agreement negotiations to lower tariffs,

not do this reciprocal tit-for-tat thing, but instead achieve a journal level of liberalization that matches and protecting certain industries. that tends to work well, including for the united states. the strategy of using tariffs to bully other nations into lowering their trade barriers did not work much during the first trump administration. it has not worked much in the 80's and 90's. i'm worried it is not going to work very well again today. jonathan: lisa trying to be optimistic and you are not helping. scott lincicome of the cato institute, we appreciate it. up next, holly o'neill on the state of the u.s. consumer. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana

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jonathan: lisa's mood has turned happy. lisa: you told me to take a shower so i took a shower and washed it off. jonathan: equity futures on the s&p positive by 131%. -- one third of 1%. let's get you some movers. your morning movers with manus cranny. manus: the market is the most oversold since 2023 but no good news at delta. you have a great and fast unwind

from clarity and vision at the start of the year on earnings to a knock of 50%. $.30 to $.50. we were looking at $.70 to one dollar. it's about lowering the guidance. the question is if it is a u.s. fissure. down 8.1%. tesla down 15% yesterday, the worst day since 2020. the trump bumped by association is gone. president trump says he will buy a tesla today to show support for musk. down 5% of the year. i leave you with the view of oracle. a diversions within the numbers on the guidance. down 1.2%. more capacity is coming online. our revenues will grow in 2026 and 2027. larry ellison talks about hyper growth. the cloud. the cloud. infrastructure. application of revenue.

this is about the data and the figures versus rhetoric in the ford and guns -- and the forward guidance. jonathan: think you very much. on the radar, ontario raising prices on all power exports to minnesota, michigan and new york. part of retaliation against president trump's tariffs. the latest push from canada and the latest tension between the two nations. lisa: it points to what people did not expect, the resentment that was set in and the fact that political leaders would have to show force against donald trump to really cater to their own populations. the idea that not only that but they would have to come up with some sort of fiscal plan or political unity. it is helpful to have a common enemy. that's essentially what president trump is offering a host of governments he otherwise would like to see come down. that's essentially what he's done. annmarie: the premier was on bloomberg last night talking about trump has created this chaos. trump will single-handedly be

the individual that brings on a recession. the jury is out on that. he is talking about this is not going to stop because there is patriotism now running wild in canada. you know what? you see that in the polls. trump almost had it where we were about to usher in a conservative leader in canada, but now the patriotism we are seeing, they are rallying behind trudeau's party which is the party of mark carney. jonathan: must be fuming. a 20 point lead for the conservatives over the liberals two month ago. that change has been humongous over the last 60 days or so. there's a meeting later on today. 5:00 p.m. eastern time, the business roundtable and the president. that is led by cisco's chuck roberts. sources are telling us the group could include wall street bosses jamie dimon and jane fraser. the conversation at 5:00 p.m., i hope we get to see some of it. it will be important. lisa: there has been a placating

approach when it comes to ceos going out of washington, having conversations with president trump. what can we do for you? how can we rewrap some of our plans and make them look like they are better? how can you use us as an excuse of the dynamism of the american economy? the tone will be different. what do they asked for? can president trump get clarity at a time when he says he already has and has a plan? how does he give clarity without backtracking the plan? annmarie: part of his approach is to be uncertain because if he's negotiating he wants t have that leverage over allies and foes. i want to see the township from individuals like jamie dimon who said so far, so good when it comes to trump's use of tariffs. he said to get people to the table. they do piss off allies but they can have negative consequences. first it was so far, so good, but they can have negative consequences. are we at the point where he walks out and say they have negative consequences?

jonathan: i wonder if elon musk will be in the room. he says entitlement spending his next on the doge chopping block. he's arguing the federal programs are plagued by fraud. there was a sit down conversation between elon musk and the nec director larry kudlow yesterday. annmarie: the issue is yes, elon musk is correct when you talk about the massive piece of pie when it comes to government spending. it is going to be entitlements. this runs absolutely counter to what donald trump made in terms of promises on the campaign trail and an office. he will not go after social security and medicare benefits. elon musk is something he is looking at. we need clarity on that. jonathan: is the president buying a tesla today? annmarie: that is what he says according to true social. i thinking he said this morning as in a few hours. we probably did not go to bed yet. i wonder if he will buy the small model or the cybertruck. lisa: of course driving it onto

the lawn. that would be hysterical. jonathan: drive it around the white house. lisa: and then leave it there. jonathan: cpi data drops tomorrow. a read on the labor market later this morning when we get jobs. bank of america city releasing his latest consumer checkpoint survey. "the consumer is still demonstrating underlying forward momentum, though at a more measured pace." i'm pleased to say giving us some time this morning is holly o'neill, president of retail banking at bank of america. welcome back to the program. a warm welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." we've had company from delta airlines come american airlines, that maybe the consumer was softer in february. we are wondering if you see anything of the same at all in your business? holly: i think you had it right when you said continued forward momentum but on a more measured pace. in february, we saw a little softness midmonth in certain regions and on the east coast.

we think it was driven by the weather. in most locations ever covered by the end of the month. when you look at the february spending data we had, it was up month over month when you seasonally adjust it. even though there was some midmonth disruptions with the weather, we saw most locations recover from that. lisa: on what though? recover in terms of spending, consumer discretionary, groceries? we have been talking about the airlines coming out and saying they really have not yet seen that recovery in the domestic travel spend. is that being focused in buying food for families? holly: care. -- sure. our total debit and credit card spend was up month over month, seasonally adjusted. that includes everything. when you dig in underneath on the grocery front, spending was up. within those numbers use saw

value grocery spending up, premium grocery spending down a little bit. overall groceries up. you saw the consumer adjusting where they were spending their money. lisa: this goes to the question of a head fake. are people getting too carried away with the narrative that sentiment is deteriorating so rapidly that spending is falling off a cliff and that will stymie any kind of american exceptionalism? will you push back against that and say what we see is the same as what we saw before, which is a moderating trend? people looking for value but the consumer that is still pretty healthy? holly: that's right. a moderating trend. you have to separate what sentiment says versus what consumers are actually doing. that spend data, the grocery trends we talked about, the overall spend, that is what consumers are actually doing. we do at times see a difference in sentiment and their actual behavior. that is very important.

. continued forward momentum but at a more measured pace for the consumer. we do not see spend fall off a cliff as you said. lisa: we talked about delinquencies on credit cards have been creeping higher. we have seen signs of distress in auto loans. i'm wondering where fact meets fiction. where stories have gotten carried away from each other, from themselves, versus any kind of true warning signs that you are seeing in any of the trends you monitor. holly: from a credit perspective, we are seeing a very normalized environment at bank of america. in fact, we are seeing the leak one sees somewhat stabilized and are expecting them to come down as the year goes forward -- delinquencies. i would call it a very normalized credit environment from what we are seeing with our clients. annmarie: you mentioned potential tariff impact. what sectors are you seeing that bleed into this potential

increase in prices when it -- when you might be harder for consumers? holly: we will look at the consumer as a whole. we will look at high-end can consumers, low income consumers and watch what their patterns are. as we talked about with the groceries, consumers to self regulate with shifting prices. i would inspect nothing different, no matter what tariff environment comes through. we will watch the consumers closely as to how they adjust their spending patterns if prices were to increase. annmarie: do you see any policies out of washington hitting consumers right now besides trade? holly: we are not. again, across-the-board we are seeing very normalized good momentum with the consumer overall. we are not seeing anything underneath from washington come through now. jonathan: just to finish on was happening with interest rates, they have stayed much higher for

longer at the federal reserve. rates at the long end have started to move lower, which is important for mortgages. what do you see in terms of credit access and are consumers trying to step up or holding back? holly: i would say consumers continue to borrow. consumers continue to borrow at a neurologist -- normalized rate. average borrowing from our credit card borrowers is slightly above where it was pre-pandemic. they still have access to credit. from a mortgage perspective we have not quite seen the demand really fled back into the market. we are still seeing purchase volume but again, because of the rate environment, that volume is certainly at the lower end. that is something we would expect to come back as the rates change. jonathan: appreciate it. this was important on a day where people are concerned about the consumer. holly o'neill from bank of america, president of retail banking. what we have seen from delta and

american airlines, a softer consumer than anticipated a few mexico. in the surveys, things really softening up. we saw that from the new york fed yesterday. , from bank of america literally millions of bank of accounts -- millions of bank accounts, you still have forward momentum. lisa: we saw the increase in travel spending. it highlights it is not as clean a story as it may seem. you talked about the new york fed survey yesterday. mean on employment excitations jumped 5.4 percentage points. the sentiment is concerning for people because it is happening at all ends. at the same time you are not seeing it in the hard data. jonathan: not yet. maybe we will in the months to come. equity futures positive by .5%. for the net date on stories elsewhere, here is a bloomberg brief with dani burger. dani: western security officials

say russian president vladimir putin has no intention to compromise on land, peacekeepers, and ukraine's neutrality. officials say putin made a maximalist list of demands ahead of negotiations and is prepared to continue fighting if his goals are not met. greenland is heading to the polls in a general election to determine the country's path to independence from denmark. all leading partners favor sovereignty but the winner will get to define how and when greenland becomes its own nation in which countries it may align itself with if that happens. apple is preparing a major software overhaul. apple is planning to transform the interface of the iphone, ipad, and mac to make operating systems more consistent. the revamped will be unveiled apple's developers conference in june. that is your brief. jonathan: more from dani in about 30 minutes. up next, the flight to safety. >> i think you have been in the

scenario now where you have peak uncertainty. what that is done is creating a desire for safe haven asset. long-duration fixed income, defensive u.s. equities. you have seen non-us do well as the dollar has softened. jonathan: up next, kelsey berro. live from new york, you are watching "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

jonathan: the airlines in focus. check out these names, american and delta. america was down by double digits after cutting its guidance yesterday for q1,

slashing the outlook for the first quarter. who was next? american down by 3.6%. an update also from exporting goods. -- dick's sporting goods. businesses pulled back. the outlook at dick's, down by close to 4%. lisa: k similar tone to the airlines. how much of the airline story idiosyncratic because of safety concerns? dick's talks about the dynamic macroeconomic and varmint leading to the concerns they have. you are looking at some sort or earnings per share being as low as 13 point -- $13.80 versus the affectations of $14.23. -- expectations. jonathan: why do they have to say the dynamic macroenvironment? just a policy. lisa: we hear directly that from ed bastian. i think a lot of -- take a step

back. this is quickly moving and we have gone from this scenario where companies were concerned about evoking the ire of the white house the not trying to give a suggestion that this is problematic. jonathan: we will get an update at 5:00 p.m. eastern this afternoon. the business roundtable sitting down with the president. under surveillance, the flight to safety. >> i think you have been in the scenario now where you have peak uncertainty. what that has done has created a desire for safe haven assets. in that environment you have seen non-us do well as the dollar has softened. that's great. the world is looking at a period of time where you have that spending internationally -- debt spending internationally and austerity in the u.s. jonathan: treasuries rallying yesterday as the s&p 500 nears correction territory.

"amid the uncertainty when detail is clear. allocation to high-quality fixed income is serving as a diversifying ballast in adjuster portfolios." kelsey, good morning. kelsey: good morning. jonathan: let's pick up a what steve said at the end. maybe austerity in america. people that have against perhaps a real expansion of the fiscal deficit over in places like germany. what is that mean for treasuries in an international bond market? kelsey: you have hit on a really key point. we have been focused on the u.s., what is happening in the white house. they are seismic shifts happening outside the u.s. right now. the shift in europe towards defense spending and towards infrastructure spending is really an important shift that we are seeing. while we are talking about it in the u.s., that bonds are serving as a diversifying safe haven so

while stocks are going down, bond prices, u.s. treasuries, mortgages, investment and credit all up in price yesterday. in germany, you have essentially the opposite. bonds have been hit massively. yields are up. stocks are up in europe too. one of the biggest trades in place for at least a year has been the investment of forward investors in u.s. equities on an unhedged basis. they wanted the u.s. equities and they wanted it unhedged. nothing will happen to the dollar, right? that is the biggest trade in the process of being reevaluated now. jonathan: you think we are unwinding the big dollar long we have built up over the last several years? kelsey: that is what it appears. it won't be a straight line but i think what has been underestimated is not what the u.s. is doing, because that has been out there. trump has been talking about

tariffs and layoffs. what has been underestimated is the response from the rest of the world. we knew they would respond to the magnitude of their response -- but the magnitude of the response has been a surprise. lisa: there's a question of the observation about the shift in the balance of dollars and the dollar long, which is if money is moving away from the united states, do long-term treasuries offer the same kind of ballast or welder not be the same degree of demand for them because some of the money is diverted elsewhere, say to germany? kelsey: i think we can differentiate a bit between the equity markets and the dollar trade and the bond trade. typically, you think about them together but what we have seen in the past few weeks is you can have periods where the treasury market is getting a bit, long-term yields or falling, and the dollar is not softening modestly.

it sounds a bit of a paradox but i think it is something that can continue to recur. -- poker. one thing -- occur. one thing on their minds is the deficit trajectory. in europe, for the first time we are seeing germany is considering a deficit, considering more deficits as an advantage. at the same time, the u.s. is considering the fact that deficits are not our friend anymore. we need to be managing them much more closely. as long as those two -- that sentiment continues, i think you can continue to see the support in long and treasuries and on the other hand i would expect europe, germany, to consider to perform. lisa: i would love you to have a debate and what is you guys have a discussion about this. he said he's getting a little bit more bearish on long-term treasuries.

pc's this concerned that even as people price in federal reserve rate cuts, the stickiness in inflation and the real floor on how far the fed can go an ongoing deficit concerns that are not going to get fixed by simply cutting on the edges, will take something more sustainable, will create a problem longer-term for the united states and for the federal reserve. why do you disagree with that? the premium will be structurally higher in united states? kelsey: the term premium already is structurally higher. if your longer-term investor, if you are looking at the market over a five to 10 year horizon, you are already observing term premium and the u.s. is substantially higher. yields are substantially higher than they were before. i think that story is already essentially in the price. what we are looking at now is that there is quite a bit of demand at these yield levels. particularly when you have a fed

that is maintaining an easing bias. yes, inflation has been a bit stickier than before. it is our view that ultimately what is going to get the fed moving more aggressively in terms of rate cuts is if we start to see the weakness translate into weaker labor market data. jonathan: high yield spreads wider yesterday by almost 20 basis points. is that a buy yet? kelsey: interesting. this goes back to this question of is that the spread move that people care about or the price move? spread buyers are saying great. we've had a bit of a backup. maybe this is an opportunity to get in. on a price basis, most of the hik\ -- high yield index, the bonds have not moved to deanna price very much because the yield movement has offset the spread widening. you can view that in two ways. one, maybe there's more pain to

come. i would also say it is credit towards the strong fundamental starting point for investment grade and high-yield bonds in the market. i don't think -- we should lose sight of that. coming into this year, growth was very strong. defaults continue to remain low. margins for companies where the higher end of their ranges. companies are probably as best places they can be for the difficult times ahead. jonathan: kelsey come appreciate it. kelsey berro. corporate america still resilient. it's a message we have heard over the last couple years. lisa: they left the financing cost of the high-yield bond market. jonathan: that might be a problem. coming up, matt miskin, ben kallo, lindsey piegza and lindsey rosner. the third hour of "bloomberg surveillance" up next.

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>> the risks are rising. this risk of something bigger

than a 10% drawdown, that is rising. >> volatility is here to stay. >> as an investor if you wanted to get defensive ahead of this you had to do it two months ago. and none of us did. but there is something beyond the trade that is driving markets, and i think it is sort of a deterioration in the data. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: the third hour of "bloomberg surveillance" starts right now. equities higher by .5% on the s&p. up next for this market, two hours away, the job openings read. job openings in the united states of america. another read on the labor market worth looking at. later this afternoon the business roundtable led by chuck robbins of the cisco, sitting down with the president of the united states. included, reportedly, jp -- jamie dimon, coming at a time

when business confidence and small business confidence is starting to soften. lisa: we saw it roll over to the greatest degree going back four months in the small survey earlier this morning. we are hearing from a host of different companies that they are downgrading that outlook in the near term because of consumer uncertainty. we are hearing that across the board, cross industries. at the same time holly o'neill presenting the opposite view, which is consumers are still spending. watch what they do, not what they say. that has been somewhat different. jonathan: there is still that forward momentum. are we losing some of that for -- forward momentum, though? we have heard from delta airlines. ed bastian of delta suggested maybe some of these issues could be transitory. what does it mean for summer travel? this is what we are hearing from executives speaking at an industry conference moments ago. planning to slow capacity growth panel -- both plans for spring

and summer. lisa: it speaks volumes, especially in january they said the supply-demand dynamic was as good as they have ever seen it. suddenly now they are cutting capacity in order to keep prices up and keep their profitability up. we are seeing soft tones across the airlines. we heard from jetblue, southwest, now charging for you to check your bags. all of these ways to shore up revenue. i'm just saying, it is fun to fly, but it's going to get even more fun. jonathan: they have got this back to front at southwest. the most disruptive part of flying right now is the boarding process because the overhead cabins are full of luggage and people have to put their luggage in the hold. the conveniences the cabin, not the whole. charging people for the hold is not the issue at play here. charge people for the cabin. you will make money because people want the convenience and

you will open up the space and hopefully improve the experience of flyers in the united states of america. why is that so difficult to get your head around? lisa: it would also improve some of the employee satisfaction who are not trying to break up fights for people to get into the plane first. the whole idea of gate lice, number that? they would not care if they could just pay to check their bags. jonathan: it just makes so much sense. annette do it? annmarie: it is also -- why not do it? annmarie: delta now saying that southwest's bag fee change puts customers up for grabs. customers might say, we will go elsewhere if we have to pay for it. you want to pay for the convenience and it goes to show more people want to actually bring their luggage with them because in that capacity they just take your bag for free because they have no choice. jonathan: want to make it smoother, reduce the friction. that is what it should be all about.

anyway, equities on the s&p positive by .5%. we begin this hour with stocks looking to rebound from their biggest one-day loss of the year. matt miskin writing, there is an equity risk being priced in that is going in the opposite direction. that joins us now for more. come to the program. i do believe some of these trends are unsustainable? mike: because at the end of the day we are altogether on the same economic cycle. global growth is moderating in our view off of a pretty good level in 2024. if this is a macro regime shift -- and it is almost like we went into an air pocket. all of a sudden the u.s. economy is slowing down. it might be the weather. we might need to blame it on the rain, but we are feeling an air pocket. if the macro regime is going

back to slower growth we are likely not going to see a cyclical rotation out of much of these non-u.s. equities. jonathan: so you are not chasing european, you are not chasing china? matt: that's right. the momentum has been terrific. what we are seeing our reruns of what we have seen in the united states. from europe we are getting alexion euphoria. everything is going to change. it's going to be much better. european financials have skyrocketed. i can't stop watching them day today because they are the new meme stock. there is this cooling post-honeymoon period, which actually the united states is seeing a little bit here. that may happen in europe. in china they are going after the ai trade. we have seen this before in the u.s. a lot of these are going to be shorter term phenomenon. try to be tactical, redeploy capital.

actually credit relative to equities, you can dial back your equities. you were talking about high-yield bonds. yielding around 7.5%. get income now instead of price appreciation. that is what we are focused on. lisa: for a second i thought you were going to say, by u.s. stocks, by the weakness, and instead you say, by bonds, which is not raging optimism. in high quality bonds at that. if it is not necessarily the golden spot in europe or china, we are facing a global slowdown where the united states and duration is really going to be the haven that will protect you at a time or other areas might be getting a sugar high right now? matt: that is exactly right. what we are seeing is certain markets or repricing, certain are not. as a multi-asset investor this is what is phenomenal for us. we are looking around and saying, what is pricing in risk,

what isn't? you've got to rewind about five months and pre-fed cuts, the 10 year was 3.60%. you still have a lot of cushion of yo potential that could have evaporated if the bond market starts pricing in worse economic data. in globally there is capital that is flying around the world, looking for the fastest momentum trade. the u.s. momentum factor has hit a wall. and that has yet to happen on a global basis. but the u.s. is actually holding up ok in our view. it is just slower growth. it is not the end of the world growth. it is odd that some of these high-quality stocks are selling off the most. we think there is going to be value in some of these tech names that have sold off here, whereas other parts of the market have gotten more expensive and they are lower quality equities. lisa: what are you waiting for? a lot of people say, this could be a by the deponent -- by the

depth moment. it's -- buy the dip moment. that we are not seeing a rejiggering of the global diamond him is him -- global dynamism you have a deficit in the united states. what gives you confidence that there will be that sense that the u.s. is still exceptional? matt: we are watching high-yield spreads. as you have talked about there are over 300 basis points going in the wrong direction. that is making us less optimistic in terms of this potential rear acceleration of the economy. initial jobless claims are to 20,000. they came back after the prior week -- 220,000. they came back after the prior week. this last jobs report we didn't think was that bad, but the question is, is the next one going to be weaker and the

challenger report was the biggest shock of last week, showing that the layoff announcements were taking up. -- ticking up. quality values, things like health care, dividend-paying stocks. those have sold off a bit they have held in made cap in some of the high quality sold your today. they are trading on another planet. in our view that is going to come together. we still like quality but again, the income is going to be a better return driver after so much return. we got to find different asset classes to work into the portfolio. credit and high quality bonds are great opportunities to us. annmarie: i hear what you are saying. does that change on april 2? matt: perhaps. i mean, it can change on a dime,

frankly, but right now you can just see it in the commodity trading or the momentum traders, global macro traders. it can change quickly, you know? and we just want to be careful here chasing that. and so much right now is politically-driven. this year, 2020 five, almost everything has been political influencing the markets. in our view that as a shorter-term phenomenon. we don't use politics in investing. i know that sounds crazy given everything going on, but you want to focus on the earnings trends. the best earnings in the world is still in the united states. we still like the u.s. and once in a while they are getting cheaper. that might cause a relative opportunity versus a lot of other equities elsewhere. annmarie: you say you don't use politics, but we are talking about policy. the trump administration is talking about a global realignment when it comes to trade and changing the way the u.s. economy works, trying to

re-privatize and make sure jobs are going to the private sector. that is not politics, this is policy. you have to start baking some of this in, no? matt: i would love to agree with you, but the policy can change on a dime too. yesterday we could have tariffs, the next day could be tariffs, the other day a cap. if you are trying to make a decision three to five years for clients, investor portfolios on tariffs that could be here tomorrow or gone the next day, it is just going to drive -- jonathan: if you can ignore this that is going to be a feature of the next several years. wouldn't you have to acknowledge the multiple people would be willing to pay for some of these names will be lower than they otherwise would be if we had clarity on policy? matt: i hear you, but at the end of the day nvidia or some of these tech giants have been growing earnings. that wasn't because of fiscal policy. the real trends are because -- it goes back to swat analysis in business school or the

productivity or the executing of the business. we are investing in companies, not countries. it is about the stocks, not the economy. you are not investing on gdp. you are investing on the stocks. i think that is a big differentiation. right now everything is getting turned around really fast based on political headlines. you are going to get yourself turned around into a pretzel on that. you want to focus on the fundamentals and right now they are not that bad, but they are diminishing. you want to move up in quality, focus more on income. we are trying to keep it simple, and that is where we would position. jonathan: sounds like you are buying nvidia? matt: i will not go that far. [laughter] jonathan: just as you are in the flow. appreciate it. thank you, sir. like miss can of john hancock investment management. let's get you an update on stories elsewhere.

dani: billionaire presidential advisor elon musk is calling to cuts to into -- cuts to entitlement spending, including social security and medicaid, arguing the programs are plagued by fraud. musk said most of the federal spending is entitlements. however, many republicans have been adamant that entitlement -- entitlement benefits will not be part of doge cuts. shares of dick's sporting goods falling in the premarket. this boarding goods retailer reported profit that the estimates, but did issue a disappointing outlook for the fiscal year. dick's's ceo has been working to upgrade its e-commerce capabilities. mr. beast's biggest moneymaker is not youtube, it is chocolate. jimmy jon olson's stock of business generated about 250 million dollars in sales last year with more than $20 million in profit. his media business lost on most $80 million. sources tell bloomberg beast

industries is looking to raise a couple hundred million dollars to expand it since -- expand its existing divisions. jonathan: up next on the program, the morning calls, plus ben kallo of baird on a big move lower in tesla. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: equity futures here just about positive. up by .1% on the s&p. up by .2% on the nasdaq 100. let's get you some morning calls. barclays lowering its price target on delta, anticipating softer demand. that stock is down by 7% this morning. steve for lowering its price

target on oracle, expecting limited multiple expansion. cfra upgrading amazon to a strong buy, saying the company is more recession-resilient than its peers. the stock just a little bit softer so far this morning. let's turn to set -- turned to tesla, shares looking to bounce back. the stock down nearly 44% so far this year, wiping out its gains since president trump's election win. ben kallo writing, we continue to view tesla as a core holding long-term and see the company in leader in real-world ai. welcome back to the program. you are one of the best. walk me through from your standpoint, what is leading this stock lower? is it something bigger than the name itself or is it tesla specific? ben: market is the backdrop, but tesla-specific, it is delivering

numbers. it is as simple as that for q1. the stock cannot go up until the consensus numbers go down because there is this narrative that musk is -- is destroying the brand. whether that is right or wrong they are doing a refresher across all four factories, and so they typically have 300,000 deliveries in a quarter. take out two months of that. so, 200,000 cars that are not being produced or are just now being produced. and that is going to be compounded with all of the backdrop of the protests and all of the bad stuff going on with tesla, and it is going to extend that narrative around demand. lisa: deliveries have never really mattered, right? it doesn't matter how much they sell or don't sell, it is always about this faith in longer-term robotaxis and autonomous driving. has that belief shifted? has there been a vibe shift a lot -- among retail investors

that could mean a longer-lasting depth? ben: i think so. over time we have seen the linens where tesla's value could be longer at some point, and when things get bad in terms of refocusing short-term, that is where we are right now. very short-term-focused. i think when we get a delivery number that is worse than people are expecting it is going to be carrying on that narrative of demand being bad because of demand destruction. and that affects the long-term story. lisa: yesterday elon musk was asked about how he was running his other businesses while he was engaged in right-sizing the government, and he said, with a. at what point do people be concerned that their ceo is distracted and does not have time to manage the company -- forget day today, but week to week? ben: it is a good question that has come up a lot because of spacex and his other businesses

that he has. now that he is at doge and he is spending his time in washington, d.c. it is hard to defend what he is doing on a day-to-day basis and how much he is being involved in -- involved. you have pundits out there, people that would normally be on his side saying, hey, send me bullet points of what you have done. i'm not saying that is right or wrong. when you have someone that is well known in the media saying, hey, send me bullet points about what you have done at tesla recently, that raises eyebrows. annmarie: last night we had the president come out and say he is going to go out and buy a tesla in the morning. he talked about the fact that he want's baby is under attack and people want to do harm to elon. if trump comes out and buys a tesla is that bullish or perish for the shares? ben: i think it is good that he

supports, and musk is an important person in the united states, globally. but a lot of people that are indifferent to most cat best -- and 1.i would like to make when we talk about demand is if, you know, we read about people's cars getting keyed, for in the worst-case scenario set on fire, if i am indifferent or a musk supporter on my pause for a go by a tesla. our call is not that. our call is that numbers are too high because of production issues in q1. but that is going to extend the narrative of demand destruction in longer-term. annmarie: but it is not just demand destruction in the united states when it comes to musk and his involvement with the president and doge. we are also seeing this in germany, and people pushing back because of his support for a far-right german party. how do you pinpoint potential

political erosion of the shares? ben: it is difficult. that is why the stock cannot go up until -- i hate to keep repeating myself -- until numbers come down on the street. because it is going to continue that narrative. europe counts for sales. demand destruction is actually happening there versus the united states. now, those numbers are iffy because they are having production issues right now. but i think in europe people take this a lot more seriously when buying a car than uber driver will in new york city. lisa: potentially more than political boycotts is the idea of china competition and the fact that byd has overtaken tesla as by far the biggest seller of electric vehicles in china. you have this increasing production in that nation, as well as lower costs. at what point does that become a real headwind that becomes

harder and harder to ignore? especially with all of the other challenges that are facing this name? ben: i was in europe for two weeks visiting clients two weeks ago. and i see byd stores, and talking to clients someone brought up a good point. year ago no one would buy a chinese car. now with the alternative being a tesla and musk, you know, this is their opinion, not mine, that is an easier sale for byd. i think it just compounds the uncertainty in the stock right now. jonathan: it is certainly a tricky moment for the stock. ben kallo there of baird. the stock attempted to bounce back from the biggest one-day loss since 2020. if you go to the community this morning, check out the anr page on bloomberg terminal, the

average 12 month price target right now is 362. you're talking about 60% upside from where we closed yesterday. if you ask those analysts why, they will not talk about car sales. this is a tricky moment for tesla. because there are market regimes where auto sales and deliveries drive the stock. there are other times where it does not at all. you were talking about the future for self-driving, what is going to happen with ai. that futuristic stuff is going to be what underpins those bullish calls. lisa: this is a storytelling market that really points to the idea of a future where we don't have to drive and we can send our kids in cars with no drivers and they can get anywhere they want safely. and in an orchestrated manner. and the chief storyteller is not available. and the fact that the chief storyteller is a polarizing figure makes this a much more difficult story for a lot of people to buy into. jonathan: market backdrop doesn't help.

people don't want to hear nice stories. they want to see the data. and in moments like this i think deliveries matter that much more. lisa: it also matters what point we are coming from. we are seeing a 55% retracement in the shares after a huge run-up in the election. are we back to where we were before or the beginning of something more protracted? jonathan: tesla this morning bouncing back by just 1%. up next, we will catch up with lindsey piegza. we will get her thoughts on what is happening with the economy, the latest small business confidence read, and airlines. then lindsay rosner of goldman sachs as we look at economic data through the rest of this week. cpi tomorrow and some of the moves in fixed income. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: equity futures on the s&p positive by .25 percent. with your morning movers, here is dani burger. dani: this morning i got a little bit of an airline special for you. i know we are getting breaking news from united. delta kicking it off. this started off yesterday with their earnings, cutting basically in half their first quarter expectation. delta shares falling some 4.3%. it is a consumer they say is less willing to spend because of macro uncertainty.

that is hurting domestic travel, plus the midair collision of american air and a crash landing for delta. speaking of american, another airline we heard from this morning. a similar picture, seeing a wider loss for the first fiscal quarter. all of these airlines are starting to pair some of the worst of their losses. american air down about 1%. southwest also a similar warning from them. their forecast is going to look weaker with that demand, but a difference in fortune for the shares. those up 10.3%. i know you have feelings about this one. part of the reason shares are up is because they are doing a change of strategy. no longer will you get free checked bags. you will need a fee paid unless you are part of their loyalty program or have a business flight. some of the elliott management changes are coming. that is up nearly 10%. jonathan: that is the latest on the airline front. just want to throw in this additional airline.

this is quite a headline. united is seeing a 50 percent drop in government-related travel. that is the headline just dropping from united. annmarie: i'm not surprised about this because anecdotally i did hear some departments and agencies were pulling back on who they were letting travel to conferences or meet people around the country or internationally. so, when you see this i am not surprised given the doge fact and how they want to rein in spending at these agencies. but 50%, that is huge. that is half of government travel. lisa: his government travel and all related. we keep talking about the idea of what kind of contract work is also going to be put on ice as they wait for that. just to give you some commentary from the jp morgan conference, delta ceo saying the first quarter has been a parade of horribles. that has been his discussion point for the airline industry. jonathan: how much of this -- and this is the key challenge, i think. how much of this was about the

accidents we have seen? how much of it is about a slowdown in the consumer and business-related stories connected to what we are seeing with the doge effort in washington? lisa: we can't say with any precision. but we can say it is not just the airline industry that is giving this sentiment shift. we heard from dick's sporting goods. we have heard from walmart. a whole host of other companies. at a certain point it is no longer an notes when you have a tone shift. jonathan: about 90 minutes today you will get job openings. tomorrow you will get cpi. the day after you will get bpi. mike mckee joins us now for more. what are you looking for in that data later? mike: we are hoping not to see a parade of corbels in the data this week. supposedly more job openings, but it is kind of irrelevant at this point given the fact that people are not really hiring that much. according to what they are telling officials at the fed and other places. look at the quick rate let's see

what people think about their ability to get a new job. cpi, everybody is going to be watching to see whether inflation progress continues or go the other -- or goes the other way. we have gotten some not so great news this morning. we were talking about the nfib survey. there is also the new york fed survey from yesterday showing the highest number of people expecting worst financial conditions in the next year in 15 months, and the share expecting higher unemployment has the highest since 2023. that and ifb survey, as we showed you, the second-highest level ever for their uncertainty index. and a 10 point drop in small business confidence. people are looking out of -- at the headlines out of washington and they are not feeling great. i will leave you with one chart that might be important. this is the new york fed's question about, what you think is going to happen to stock prices?

it kind of speaks to itself. jonathan: not a pretty picture. appreciate it. here is the take from lindsey piegza, saying the following. the clear rise in hiring hesitancy has some investors raising the process -- the probability of a downturn or even a domestic recession. lindsay joins us now for more. let's talk about that. we have seen a major sentiment shift. the soft data, the survey data has cratered in some places. when you see those kind of moves this quickly is it inevitable? is it avoidable? you expect to see it in the hard data? lindsey: it is not necessarily inevitable. we are seeing right now is anxiety over the uncertainty of the realized impact of policy. this was a large campaign promise in terms of the international tariffs, so businesses resolve responding in anticipation at the start of the year building up inventories,

open to the sideline, curtailing investment and employment plans, from a consumer standpoint we saw consumers pull back. all of this uncertainty hitting the pause button for businesses and consumers. but it will take months to see how these policies pan out and the actual impact on prices, on relationships with international providers. at that point we will be able to match between near-term uncertainty and longer-run realized impact on the economy. lisa: we kind of got a reality check from bank of america this morning. consumers are still spending. they may not be spending as much on flights, but they are still spending. it is not a catastrophic falling off a cliff. thing we keep thinking about is the economy moves slowly. it takes a long time to hammer an economy that has momentum. how quickly could we see it show up in hard data that could be

concerning or realistically is the u.s. still a behemoth that is moving slowly and has quite a bit of momentum? lindsey: when we look at the consumer we did see a pullback. we have seen the hard data reflect the uncertainty. that being said, it has been a second derivative decline, meaning a slower pace of positive expenditures. consumers are still out in the marketplace buying goods and services, but they are doing so at a reduced pace. that being said we are also looking at how the consumer is affording these purchases and they are increasingly reliant on buy now, pay later options, ramping up credit card usage with outstanding balances over $1.2 trillion. we put that impairment -- that in perspective we see the ratio of debt payments relative to disposable income is at a multi-decade low. or at least near a multi-decade low, suggesting there is a good

amount of borrowing power on the part of the consumer to continue to support at least positive growth. maybe not a robust economy, but if the consumer could gain some confidence and be willing to move into the marketplace, i think the economy could maintain this positive pace of about 1.5 to 2%. it goes into instilling that confidence back in the consumer, not necessarily the ability for the consumer to spend. lisa: i keep thinking about how soft data and anecdotes are going to be more important right now than the hard data that is going to be backward-looking. the fact that people are looking at the university of michigan sentiment survey more than jobless claims, because maybe that will give them an edge. much can we lean on soft data that has been messy and not correlated with what people end up doing quite often? lindsey: that is exactly it. consumers say one thing and do the opposite. while we are hearing that there

is this anxiety amid this uncertainty, again, consumers are somewhat pulling back nominally this is till a positive pace of expenditures. as long as the backbone of the u.s. economy is continuing to spend at an average 3% pace, that is still a very indicative of a topline gdp of about 2%. again, the economy is still on relatively solid footing, but what we are seeing in the sentiment numbers, the nfib, some of these anecdotal reports, is this massive amount of uncertainty and unknown from all of these fiscal policies coming down the pipeline. and a big question mark of, how is this going to impact the economy as we look out to the second half of the year? jonathan: the week from tomorrow, however info will march 19 be? lindsey: i think it is going to be eventful not necessarily from a policy standpoint.

we expect the fed to remain on the sidelines. however, from a communications standpoint we want to see what the fed is falling in terms of, are they airing on the side of the economy is still positive and thus they are going to continue to remain on the sideline, or are they starting to identify some of these signs of week as, suggesting they are gearing up to reignite some of this further policy relief the market seems to be bracing for? it is really going to come down to that communication, that message from powell and the fomc statement. jonathan: lindsey piegza there. the king head to the federal reserve, march 19, for an update from the fomc. updates coming from the airlines this morning. united saying they are seeing weakness in travel demand. and a 50% drop in government-related travel. those stocks this morning softer. lisa: some of them have added to

some of the cost revenue, like charging for bags you check, not the ones you put in the overhead, which might lead to a better quality of experience. but there is this question about whether they are the canary in the coal mine in terms of signifying a rapid sentiment shift where consumers are not traveling. or is this idiosyncratic? jonathan: it is an aggressive business, this airline business. the southwest bag fee change is the slaying of the sacred cow. delta came out and said passengers are up for grabs. pretty aggressive stuff, isn't it? annmarie: it feels like hunger games right now at the airline conference. lisa: if you have ever been lined up to get on a plane it feels like hunger games too. it is not just the airlines that are aggressive, it is the people using the airlines. jonathan: lindsay rosner joins us now. you don't want to get in on that? lindsay: thank you, no. jonathan: something you said

last time was the data is your friend. what is the data telling you? lindsay: it makes sense to take a page from the fed's book. there is nothing we have to do in markets right now to reposition necessarily. for us, we are waiting to see how the data unfolds. we need to learn more. jolts is not going to give us much information today because it is january. but we need to see, has the consumer change their path? we think not, but this data is going to help us. lisa: this sounds of so calm. i love this. people are talking about a parade of horribles. you are saying we could take a look at what is going on and we don't have to change anything. what are you waiting for? lindsay: i think what we are waiting for is prices that make sense. we have been saying that fixed income makes sense in a portfolio. year-to-date there was a lot of concern about what has happened with stocks.

down maybe 4% overall. this is not a massive move, but contrast that with what fixed income has done for you. in the middle of the curve, 4%. back end, even more. we are calm because we are bond people. but we are calm because we have a good set up in our portfolio construction overall, with bonds as a ballast. lisa: there's a question about how long long-term bonds can remain a ballast if people get concerned about higher overall inflation from de-globalized world. the idea that supply chains will have more built in inefficiency. how do you deal with those discussions? you just assume that yields are going to stay around here and that is fine because it is relatively good to be paid to wait? lindsay: what will be a problem certainly would be if tariffs are on the maximalist side of things. what we have seen recently is tariffs on, tariffs off, tariffs

at a higher level, then lower levels. until we see a really aggressive tariff regime you can feel confident in bonds. they have good coupons. we are starting in a good spot there. there will be support as we -- they will be support as we learn more. do not have today trade our portfolios. that is the important thing. there has been a lot of frenetic behavior in the markets right now. we were talking before we got on that it is hard to think about taking a day off from the market. you cannot take a vacation right now under this administration. as we learn more we are going to be emboldened that rates are going to help you. annmarie: when you are looking at that maximalist approach for trade it sounds like you are waiting for april 2. lindsay: is that accurate? lindsay:we are waiting for april 2 just like we waited for march and we waited for february. there are markers we keep waiting for. at some point there will be an end to kicking the can and we

will have what is the final here. and that is what people are waiting for. i think that uncertainty does not do the market well. hopefully april 2 is maybe the beginning of the end of, we know what the permanent state will be. annmarie: we are seeing some economic advisors outside the administration, like steve moore, saying, you got to push out the tax cuts. you think that is an accurate assumption? that they need to balance some of this bad rhetoric around tariffs with good policy changes they are trying to get through? lindsay: if you think about what happened post-election, we had this euphoria bubble. a lot of people have said the balloon has burst, so to speak, because all of the good stuff was thought about. the regulation, tax cuts. we haven't had those yet because the sequencing takes time. instead we are seeing more negative things, potentially, like terrace. it is hard when everybody was banking on positive things to happen, the negative ones happen

first, and we are still waiting for the positive things later on. i think they are coming much more slowly. certainly if we sped them up people would feel better. jonathan: we are getting some policy clarity abroad. i wonder how you and the team are thinking about the surge have seen in european bond yields over the past week or so, specifically in germany. these are regime shifts in policy that we have not seen in decades. how are things changing for you and the team? lindsay: what we have said really since 2024 is that there are great opportunities of diversions and we should be able to take advantage of them in our macro strategies. what has happened in germany has something totally new, large, significant. we don't think the backup in yields is over yet. we would not hop in yet. still prefer the u.s., but it is important to think what that means as a background for credit. from a credit perspective europe has outperformed the u.s.

we are still leaning into u.s. because we feel there is more opportunity there. but should that he dislodged it will be a good opportunity to shift folios and add european credit. once we get more clarity on if defense spending will be passed what will really happen. lisa: what is more compelling to you, the pushing away from the u.s. effect of a potential deterioration of the data, or a positive shift with respect to the spinning getting past. a sense that it could ignite some growth and infrastructure spending on the heels of it in europe? lindsay: this is the big change and i think you are seeing that with the yields in europe. this is big spending and you are starting to see that all of the views that there could be a recession in europe, or things are looking weak, that has changed a lot because spinning is a huge part of gdp, government spending. that does change the tone out there, but what is important his, it is a global environment, and what we have seen with stocks, with bonds, and the big

volatility in performance is one active management to take advantage of these movements, because they are happening quickly. jonathan: thank you. lindsay rosner of goldman sachs. don't take a day off. no one at goldman takes a day off do they? lisa: certainly not this year. this is why people are not going to be traveling to warm spots that are going to be nice. jonathan: cheaper flights for you, brammo. lisa: are you trying to send me away? jonathan: i'm coming with you. [laughter] equity futures just about unchanged. here is your bloomberg brief with dani burger. dani: united airlines said it is seeing a 50 percent drop in government-related travel. speaking at a jp morgan conference the ceo said the company is seeing weakness in travel demand, acting to the news that southwest will be charging for bags he said, it is the slaying of the sacred cow. i've of the billionaires at president trump's inauguration have collectively lost $209

billion since january 20. billionaires index shows elon musk's wealth has declined by nearly $150 billion as tesla's shares have tanked. jeff bezos has lost $29 billion and surrogate britain has lost $22 billion. as an trump has said he is going to buy a new test this morning. he says it is a show of confidence and support for elon musk. tesla fell in their worst day in more than four years yesterday. trump said, why should musk be punished for putting his tremendous skills to work in order to hate -- help make america great again? what is your brief. jonathan: appreciate it. up next, we will set you up for the day ahead, we will head down to washington, d.c. and catch up with tyler kendall. when the business roundtable sits down with the president of the united states. ♪ ♪ still at it.

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jonathan: yesterday, the worst day so far in 2025. down 2.7% on the s&p. today, no real balance at all. we are totally unchanged on the s&p. the opening bell about 38 minutes away. it's get you the day ahead. 10:00 a.m., jolts job openings. at 5:00 p.m., the president meeting with top ceos and wall street bank executives. watch out for the business roundtable letter. on wednesday cpi. on thursday, ppi and another round of jobless claims. on friday the u.s. government shutdown deadline.

tyler kendall joins us for more. looking forward to later on this afternoon. what are you expecting? tyler: president trump has said there will be a short term adjustment period to have long-term growth. i'm sure many of these executives would like to know what that timeline is. interestingly enough, one week ago today the business roundtable put out a lengthy statement about president trump's economic agenda. unsurprisingly they touted their support for many of his economic policies, including tax cuts and deregulation. but notably they said they were going to push president trump to protect the is -- to protect the usmca, citing that u.s. and mexico trade has contributed to 13 million american jobs. no doubt tariffs and the uncertainty that comes with them is going to be a topic of discussion today. we should note this continues a trend from this white house when it comes to outreach to the private sector. yesterday president trump met with tech ceos.

they did not answer any of our questions, but it included executives from companies like ibm and hp as their industry tries to navigate these tariff threats. the official white house schedule says president trump will be at the business roundtable for one hour. no he is prone to longer marks, but we are expecting that after he gives his comments he is going to end up having some private conversations with the executives in the room. jonathan: looking for to that. some of it might be on camera. later on this afternoon, tyler kendall in washington, d.c. this morning we have hardly talked about the tariffs on steel and aluminum, just assuming 25% happens overnight. annmarie: that is what everyone is expecting. those go into place tomorrow, 5:00 p.m. i wonder if these executives leave the room feeling uncertain and 10:00 a.m. when the tesla showroom in georgetown opens up, i want to know if president trump buys one. lisa: i want to know what president trump could say that

could stave off some of the uncertainty in markets and whether he will begin to try. it could be seen as a capitulation. that is really the key to me. jonathan: they have been pretty consistent with the message over the past few weeks. let's see if it stays that way this afternoon. coming up tomorrow, alicia levine, rick wurster of charles schwab, david kelly of jp morgan. cpi tomorrow morning the main event. thank you for choosing bloomberg tv. this was "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

matt: 30 minutes until the cash trade. the biggest nasdaq drop since 2022. i'm matt miller. sonali: optionality bostick. katie: and i'm katie -- sonali: i'm sonali basak. katie: and i'm katie greifeld. "open interest" starts now. sonali: coming up, don't call it a comeback. futures are fluctuating after a selloff wipes out $1 trillion from the nasdaq. citi downgrades u.s. stocks, citing a pause in american exceptionalism. matt: pr