>> welcome to bloomberg markets, i'm sonali. it's a green day. let's get a check on these markets. the s&p 500 has held up its bid. dip buyers hopping into the market. up almost 1%. roughly .9%. more so when you look at the nasdaq 100. a gain just over 1.1%. that 10-year yield has been holding steady at about 4.3%. of course there is that big fed decision later today. and we are also looking

importantly the at turkish stocks. the index had been falling after turkish authorities detained president erdogan's top political rife a authorities later intervened heavily in the currency market to step the worst selloff in years. and macro traders in particular keeping a close eye on the situation. back now to the united states. highlight a couple of movers here in the u.s. equity markets. for that we bring in bloomberg's isabellely. >> we are lowing at boeing. shares are edging higher. up 7%. that's the most in seven weeks. boeing's cash outflows likely to be smaller this quarter according to c.f.o. that stablizes work in its fakeries and clears out its inventory of already built jets. next we are looking at super micro. also a green stock edging higher by 3.5%. they just announce add new on optimized storage server.

they are using nvidia's super chip. the new system combined nvidia's power efficiency with the c.p.u. investors are liking that deal. we have green on the screen again. we have i bet the biggest e.t.f. coin based. the rising of the news ripples the s.e.c. case against the company has ended. this is the latest of several enforcement actions that hasn't abandon during the early weeks of trump's administration. the s.e.c. in 2022 claims ripple broke the law by selling an s.t.r. as a token without registering at a security. the s.e.c. has kiss dis missed or paused other cases in the investigations targeting crypto companies. sonali: thank you very much. we are going to that story. ripple c.e.o. garlg house announce -- garle did -- garling

house -- garling dust house. >> we can now announce the s.e.c. is no longer pursuing their appeal in the ripple case. we are obviously -- thank you. >> should we get a standing ovation? sonali: here with us now live, ripple c.e.o. brad garling house. this has been a long battle. how much certainty does this provide? is the entire case over? >> this provides a lot of certainty for ripple. for frankly me personally because the s.e.c. sued me. the s.e.c. has abandoned their appeal. we -- they filed suit in december of 2020. we won on a key parts of the case in the summer of 2023. the judge made a ruling that x.r.p. in and of itself is not a security. the s.e.c. filed an appeal about eight months ago. and what they now agreed is they

are going to drop that appeal. we still have a cross appeal pending. we go from being defendant to plaintiff. so we now are in the driver's seat to determine how we want to proceed. sonali: are you stopping it? >> we'll see. it feels berts to be on the offense than defense. four years we spent over $150 million defending that case. not just for ripple but the whole industry. it was really important that this s.e.c., the begins letter s.e.c. -- gins letter s.e.c. was trying to bully and continue law fair against crypto companies. that's over now. i think that's great for the u.s. crypto industry and great for crypto at large. sonali: if are you look at a new s.e.c., why not drop the case? why not clear the water? >> that certainly is an option. again, it's clear -- the s.e.c. said in retrospect 234e6r would -- never would have brought this case. the judge did rule in certain instances back in 2015 and 2016

some x.r.p. sales we sewed to accredited investors, institutions, those constitute add security. so there is a $125 million fine sitting in escrow. we wouldn't mind having that back. that's on the table. there are nuances to how this will play out. it was important for us for the whole x.r.p. community. for all intents and purposes the case is over. the s.e.c. is no longer pursuing it. sonali: to your point here. the court decision ordered you to pay a $125 million civil penalty for exactly what you are talking about. is that $125 million paid? is what you're saying that's up for dispute? >> it's not in dispute. that's sitting in an escrow. defending upon whether or not we decide to continue with our appeal, we could walk away and the whole thing would be done. on the other hand, when you have a case where there were no investor -- no investor harm. lost any money, you are wait, why are we here? it goes back to ginsler fighting

a fight about power grab. overreach of the bureaucracy to try to take a new industry. we are seeing now happen in washington is smart legislation will come forward. you are seeing that happen with stable coins in real time. i think you'll have a market structure bill what it's described to provide clarity and rules for the s.e.c. sonali: we'll look at the bigger picture. we'll have you for a while this morning. do you think that part of this means fighting it until the very end to make sure even that part of uncertainty around being sold to certain investors, classifies as a security, is that what you are fighting for ultimately at this point? >> at this point all we are fighting for is do we want to fight to get the $125 million back? i'll be honest, would i have walked away from that before they appealed, before president trump put paul and scott and david as critical key, very smart leaders in this industry to bring this industry back on

shore? i would have walked away. now you look at that, this case, in this s.e.c., never would have been brought. where we find ourselves is there is a clear legal victory to say x.r.p. is not a security. good for the industry. but there are pieces we think could be cleaned up. there are questions do we want to fight that fight or come to an agreement with the s.e.c. to drop everything? sonali: the whole idea this wouldn't have been brought under the s.e.c., have you had that specific discussion with paul and david? >> paul hasn't been confirmed. he's a very knowledgeable guy about this industry. and has been for a long time. i have had conversations, i won't comment on specifics with certainly -- i think david would agree this is a case that didn't make a lot of sense. there was no investor harm. this is about gary ginsler wage ago war against this industry. sonali: i want to appoint out the affiliated token x.r.p. has been up 14%. now 13% in the last 24 hours.

one thing a lot of people had looked at, thinking a lot how the administration is handling crypto assets, particularly outside of bitcoin. why do you think x.r.p. wasn't specifically named in the executive order for the digital asset stoke pile? >> x.r.p. was named by the president on truth social. he posted something saying that there should be other tokens. there is going to be bitcoin strategic reserve and a crypto stockpile that would include things like x.r.p. sonali: is it says later the executive order didn't include it. why was that? >> i don't know specifically what was in the executive order. my understanding is there is going to be a bitcoin strategic reserve. a crypto stockpile representing other cryptos. and i would expect that will include x.r.p. at the end of the day i think the stark contrast is in the biden administration we couldn't get a meeting with people at the white house. now we are wellcomed into the white house. that's -- welcomed into the house. we want this industry to thrive in the united states. we don't want to push it

offshore where you have fewer regulations. soipt reason i keep pushing you is i think it's widely accepted this is a pro-crypto administration. but the details. that is what's causing an overhand. the uncertainty of the details. to the extent you have confidence about x.r.p. being in that stockpile, or otherwise, getting more support for an e.f.t. for example. where does that confidence come from? what kind of timeline do you see it happening on? >> i have immense confidence on the e.t.f. there are 11 different filings pending with the s.e.c. to launch e.t.f.'s from everybody from bit wise to franklin tempton and people in between. those will be live in the second half of this year. we have seen even outside the united states, you have live e.t.p.'s. at a time when a lot of out flows are existing some of the crypto e.t.f. you are seeing inflows into x.r.p. had you this false negative pressure from the s.e.c. a handholding things down that's

now being released. that's great for the market. great for builders within the x.r.p. ecosystem globally. sonali: one more on the stockpile. how much x.r.p. would be in it? where does it come from? >> my understanding when i read -- i think there are some questions. the devil may be in the details as treasury implements some of this. sonali: absolutely details. >> my understanding is that the stockpile be represented by seized other crypto's other than bitcoin that will be in that tkpile. to the extent various law enforcement agencies have seized cryptos, which would include x.r.p., those would go into the stockpile. in addition to the bitcoin strategic reserve. that's my understanding. sonali: now, brad, stick with us. are you going to be joining us the next block as well. that's rim c.e.o. brad garlinghouse. breaking news because investors and americans and europeans and ukrainians all watching the interaction between the ukraine

zelenskyy as well as president donald trump. i want to break that zelenskyy is backing a proposal to halt energy asset strikes. according to a source familiar with the matter. also that they have discussed a partial cease-fire in that call. we will bring you more details as we get them. of course this is the situation that is still live. this is bloomberg.

sonali: this is bloomberg markets. i'm sonali. bring you back to that breaking news. sources familiar with the matter saying president zelenskyy of ukraine is backing the proposal to halt energy asset strikes and has discuss add partial cease-fire -- discussed a partial cease-fire in a call with president trump who has

said ukraine is on track after that call. we are bringing in kaley -- clail in washington, d.c. our balance of power co-host, what do we know? >> this is per a person who was familiar with the more than hour long discussion president trump had with president zelenskyy by phone. early today. essentially what is key here is that in order for cease-fire of any kind to be effective, both sides need to agree to it. while president trump and russian president putin agreed to a 30-day cease-fire on energy and infrastructure strikes, ukraine needed to get onboard. that accord to this source is what happened. ukrainian president said he agreed not to strike russian energy infrastructure. this is a step forward. this is still just a partial cease-fire. trump and zelenskyy, according to the source, have agreed to work toward a broader cease-fire as discussed as well with president putin yesterday. and president trump said in the read out -- the white house said in the read out of that call with putin those sculingses on a wider cease-fire would begin

immediately. president trump also promised on truth social post earlier today which he described his call with zelenskyy this morning as being good and things were on track. said we should expect to get a more detailed readout of the call from the secretary of state, marco rubio, and the national security advisor mike waltz. we could get further detail from the administration as to what this cease-fire when it comes to energy and infrastructure will look like. what else was discussed. when exactly the talks will take place. and where in the middle east. those details we are awaiting. we do know some agreement was made with the ukrainian side and zelenskyy and president trump today. sonali: what does this mean in terms of the turn in relations between president trump and president zelenskyy given what we saw weeks ago at the white house? >> certainly this is a positive sign that their relationship is warming once again. the last time they had spoken directly for a length of time was in the oval office when things went way off the rails and ended up with the ukrainian

president leaving without signing a minerals deal that was intended to be signed at that meeting. that deal still had been signed i would point out, it is a step forward in the two sides maintaining the relationship and these discussions. ukraine obviousry through in phone call with president -- obviously through this phone call with president zelenskyy has a seat at the table as president trump acts as a mediator between the ukrainian side anti-russian side. and president trump said today the primary purpose of this is to align what he called both russia and ukraine in terms of their request and needs. he very much sees himself as a deal maker here. clearly willing to deal with zelenskyy even after the events of a few weeks ago. sonali: because all of this is coming quickly and there is much more ahead, telegraph what's next to expect? you mentioned there are going to be more readouts from both calls. >> we'll look for that read out from the white house or through the state department or the national security advisor as

president trump did promise more detail on the discussion that took place today is coming. the details we'll look for do -- regard those next steps. president trump yesterday said there will be immediate conversations to expand this cease-fire beyond just energy and infrastructure. those conversations will take place in the middle east. it's a question who will be the representatives from all three of these sides. in those conversations when and where will they be held. just how quickly realistically is the time line for a fuller cease-fire. steve witkoff, president trump's special envoy, told our colleagues on bloomberg "surveillance" earlier this morning, he thinks it could be matter of weeks. sonali: kaley, we thank you so very much for your time and all of your reporting. we'll be back with you as we get more news. that is kaley, balance of power co-host. back here on set with ripple c.e.o. brad garlinghouse. talk ago big moment for you and your company a rollback of the tensions that had been brewing

with the s.e.c. let's talk about the next phase. one thing i'm really wondering about now that there is more clarity for you is that an i.p.o. frankly in your future now. you talk so much about the potential for the x.r.p. token to be backed in an e.t.f. that's a method of listing. is listing possible now for you for ripple? >> certainly something that is possible. the united states s.e.c. under ginsler was so hostile in the industry. they improved s-1 from coin boys and sued them for what they said they were doing. this s.e.c. fortunately is going to be very constructive and positive for this industry. i think that's available. i think the company's at stage where we can consider that. it isn't a huge priority. most companies are going public raising capital is something that is high on their ray -- radar. we have been in the fortunate decision to grow the business organically. we are more proactive at looking

at acquisitions. this is an industry that flienl will be able to strive in the united states. the largest economy in the world. i think the industry's still underestimating the shift from the headwinds to the tailwinds. that will make a bigger difference than people think. finally the u.s. market is unlocked. sonali: what are you saying acquisitions are -- acquisitions are a more priority than i.p.o., what would you look for to buy and how big are you willing to go? >> i'm not going to name names. ripple at its core is a block chain infrastructure company. we sell our technologies to business primarily financial institutions. and we'll look at other things that are not chain infrastructure companies. there will be consolidation this year. there is a lot of excitement about some of the changes. we will lean into that for sure. sonali: when you think about what's possible in terms of financial institutions, there's been a lot of conversation about loosening of regulations and red tape when it comes to the financial industry. and its interactions with the crypto community. what are you actually seeing

happen? are banks really warming up in a way that's significant right now? >> i think unequivocally, yes. just in the last few weeks i have seen u.s. financial institutions go from being look, we are not going to touch it because we don't want the tax breaks scrutiny of regulators. which may or may not have been legal given these are legal businesses. you have large banks who used to say negative things saying positive things. i think the two areas you'll see the most activity in the short term one is around custody. these are banks that want to be able to custody particularly when you see real world assets being tokennized. you need to be able to safely manage and custody that for customers and potentially the bank. the second is around payments. the global payments infrastructure still remains very dated. buyers -- i just had a buyerure rows disappear for five -- buyerureos disappeared. sonali: part of the payment the infrastructure i'm watching

closely is stable coins. there is being clarity in washington. and watching people use stable coins in interesting ways. robinhood using stablecoin in terms of if a sit tating 24-hour trading. what's next? if you think about the next forefront of stable coins now that the u.s. is getting toward clarity, what's possible? >> again i think we are underestimating how big that might get. today that market's about $230 billion. some smart people think that may go up 10x. that's probably right. the two leading players are both poised to do well in that market. ripple launched our own stablecoin at the end of last year. that's already ahead of our own internal forecasts in terms of where we are at this point in the year. still we are small. the goal is by the end of the year for us ripple stablecoin to be in the top market. the whole market will grow dramatically. sonali: what does it take you to

get there? who are you pairing up with? are you creating financial partnerships to make it more of a household name? >> for sure. even today we had more listings go live for our rusd for crypto exchanges. any time you do something new it takes -- the pun of the ripple effect of seeing how that plays out. we are seeing that happen in real time. i'm really pleased. as i said we are ahead of our q-1 forecast where we were expected to be. we feel good about that. sonali: given what you have gone through with the sex, one major question is how tokens list in the future? what do they mean? how are they classified? now you are talking about -- say even private equity companies looking to tokennize their funds. a venture capitalist said she's considering that for her own fund. are what are the rules of the road? are people going to list and put the cart in front of horse? >> i think tokennizing like what

kathy talked about democratizing assets to different investment vehicles and types is very compelling. even imagine shark tank enabling the participation by different sharks. there's interesting stuff you could do. right now congress it seems is more focused on getting stablecoin legislation passed. that went from markup last week. i think you'll see that potentially in front of the president in weeks. the other piece of legislation i think will move quickly after that is the market structure bill. last summer something called fit 21 passed the house. did not get through the senate. i think that a market structure like fit 21 will come before congress. hopefully before the summer recess we'll see that has also. sonali: you think about how many exchanges are now looking to loosen their listing standards already on the heels of lighter oversight, and the cart before the horse question. do you think that people are getting ahead of themselves and listing things that shouldn't be? >> i don't think about it as lighter regulation because, frankly, i think the industry wants to be regulated.

what we have been saying for years as an industry is we just want clear regulation. we don't want lawsuits claiming one thing and next week contradicting themselves. which is what ginsler's s.e.c. was doing. just the fact we have an s.e.c. trying to work constructively instead of trying toe sue more companies. let's work and codify and get legislation to provide that clarity. sonali: if you don't have that clarity, what you saw years ago was an i.c.o. boom where tons of things that were raising money never worked out for the people that were buying the tokens or coins. >> i agree. i said then i think -- some of them were like i.p.o.'s. they were securities. the problem is the s.e.c. used that to blanket and say -- ginsler said before he was s.e.c. chair he didn't think they were securities. after it was his power grab. he wanted everything under his jurisdiction. i think that i.c.o. boom went away. there are lots of way this is government can regulate and manage fraud and manage criminal

activity that. did happen. people did go to jail. sonali: one more question for you about ripple on x.r.p. in particular on the supply and how it's managed. and the unlocks. is there anything would you do to change the amount of supply brought to market? can do you that? how does that work? because there is a level of dill leution for x.r.p. when more supply is brought in on a regular basis? >> i'm glad you asked because there is misinformation and sometimes disinformation. the amount of x.r.p. created in 2012 when it was first started, that block chain first started was 100 billion units. that can't be increased. it's slightly deflationary. now 99.9 billion units. ripple owns about 42% of that supply. we have had in for eight years we published something called the x.r.p. markets report where we share how much we are introducing into the market. we want that to be predictable. that has been the case for many years now.

we will continue to make sure that's very predictable. at some point maybe we won't be selling as much. we'll see how that plays out in the future. but right now frankly we get criticized for ownling too much. and criticized for selling some. we want to do that in a constructive way which is what we have done for years. sonali: we'll keep a close eye on those moves. thank you for joining us. a big announcement for ripple. a lot of changes still ahead. that is ripple c.e.o. brad garling dust house. we are on an up day. it felt like it's been a while. and we are watching a sustainable bid in the s&p 500 a little less than what you saw earlier. off the highs. still up .8%. the nasdaq 100 still up more than 1%. bond market not moving much. not surprising, of course, it's fed day. trading overall is generally light. a lot of people waiting and seeing what fed chair powell has to say. of course coming up all eyes are on that fed decision.

and chair powell's speech later today. we are going to be joined by former chief investment strategist of bridgewater associates, rebecca patterson, joining us next. this is bloomberg. [suspenseful trains. [whoosh] ♪ trains that use the power of dell ai and intel. clearing the way, [rumble] [whoosh] so you arrive exactly where you belong.

sonali: welcome to bloomberg markets. let's get a check on these markets as we've been talking about, we have a day where we are higher, now about .9 percent higher on the s&p 500 and more than 1% on the nasdaq 100. almost every member of the magnificent seven finally in the green barring medevac, the best performer of the group of the year. a lot of interest crosscurrents under that surface. the bond market holding study as you would expect because of

course the federal reserve will make its decision, release its decision later today. it will be an assessment on how president donald trump's trade policies are affecting the economy. joining us now is rebecca patterson, former chief investment strategist at bridgewater associates. you look at the push-pull between the fiscal and monetary and a lack of ability for the fair to say much on how to trade policies will impact what is going on. how do you expect this to really be reflected through the speech, dot plot, through the summary that they will release today? where are you zeroing in? rebecca: in the statement today, possible we will get a couple of hints around heightened expectations for inflation, measures moving up in the last month or two, even one this morning from the atlanta fed showing business inflation expectations rising at 2.5 percent. i wouldn't be surprised if we get a hint of that, that they are aware of the upside risk to

inflation in the statement. definitely think we will get some focus on that in the press conference. right now, they are discounting to devote rate cuts between now and year-end. it would surprise me if there is enough evidence yet for them to feel strongly about changing that. it is interesting, the markets are now in line with a dot plot, two cuts expected this year. that has been reined in quite a bit. before they were thinking three cuts, now at two. sonali: what kind of landing those two cuts assume? rebecca: from what the fed has been saying, if you look at their words and recent statements, i think what the fed is anticipating his continued normalization in labor market growth. the strong labor market but one that is growing at a slower rate, inflation continuing to slowly come back down toward its 2% target. they still view the current rate levels as restricted, so this would allow them to redo some of that restrictiveness in the market. they are not thinking of it as

easy, per se, but more just less tight. the risk they will talk about today is on the upside for inflation. i think, all else equal, to me, says the bias of risks in the markets in the short term is lower. you will have a longer fed on's. sonali: here is the brutal calculus, not only that inflation part of the picture but that worry around growth. square that circle for me. rebecca: if the fed is looking at their dual mandate and says what do we need to react to first, growth or inflation? inflation expectations are rising and we are getting more evidence of that, not just one report. ruth is still robust. you saw a retail sales that just came out, decent. we know the unemployment rate is still extremely low, payroll growth is in line with the last six month average. there is no reason for them to knew to be nervous yet about growth. five months down the road, if all of this uncertainty turns

into more moderate business and household activity, that calculus might change. but i think right now, given the fed missed it on inflation a few years ago, they don't want to miss it again. i think there bias of risk, given where inflation is, the history, growth backdrop that is still strong, they are all about inflation right now. sonali: one issue, as well, is the conflict between the fiscal and monetary. where do you see that play out the most, decisions made at the white house versus those made at the fed? rebecca: sometimes the fiscal is dominant, sometimes the monetary. right now i think the fiscal is dominant. when we say fiscal, i think what you are implying is trade, doge, taxes, all of it. fiscal is a big part of it but not the only part. right now the big focus for me is trade. april 2 is right around the corner. we are seeing all of these different comments from people

like treasury secretary bessent. his latest yesterday was the dirty 15, and that these countries will receive numbers that will be our tariff rate that will reflect a compendium of things, tariffs, but also vat taxes, currency imbalances, subsidies. i wonder how on earth do you decide what that number is, how do you adjust over time? and that uncertainty is likely to continue because of how they are approaching this. sonali: that is worth a deep dive, especially with your work on the council on foreign relations. another one that is growing more , i want to point out this note online from harvard's jason furman. he points out specifically the firing of two ftc commissioners, that president trump has taken an extraordinary, and what jason furman says, dangerous step in firing two ftc commissioners, says this is a dramatic ratcheting up of the politicization of the agency --

the opposite direction it should be going in. pretty immediately, you have people looking, concerned about other government bodies like the federal reserve. where is the line here, where are the ramifications, what do investors need to know? rebecca: you and i and others have been talking about american exceptionalism lately. with the growth forecast going down, can we stay exceptional? trust in our institutions as part of that. to the degree they are being chipped away, or the perception is they are being chipped away at by this administration, that create some risk in this trust which is part of what makes the u.s. exceptional. the other thing that i'm thinking about is what is going on with research, the funding cuts to research programs, higher education. china is producing almost twice as many stem phd's as the united states today. it's been producing more in

absolute terms since 2007. if the u.s. wants to stay exceptional, stronger economy than everyone else, stronger financial markets, we need to be investing in the r&d that gets us the technology and innovation and productivity growth. chipping away at institutions, our innovation pipeline, is not taking us in the right direction. sonali: thinking through the long term here as well as the short-term, how many people do you think realize that investing for example in artificial intelligence doesn't just mean data centers but the talent, to? o? rebecca: 100%. when you think about the evolution our economy is going to right now, both parties want to bring manufacturing back. those jobs are changing. most manufacturing workers today need a bachelors degree. more and more they will need a i training. who is doing that? the companies are doing it but it would be great if the government could support that as well. if we are thinking of how to

reach that goal of bringing manufacturing back, tariffs is one path, i don't think it is the bath past 8 -- best path. i think we would be better to focus more on tax credits and training programs to help train the workers and take advantage of the technology. sonali: thank you so much for your time, rebecca patterson, former chief investment strategist at bridgewater associates. it is a busy day, investors looking at the short-term, dot plot, summary of economic projections, as well as the long term changes happening in washington and how that will affect markets. we are turning to private market because the slowing m&a scene has private equity firms doing something that may seem strange, owning less private equity. for more on how that works and what it says about the markets, we are joined by claire in london. it is a sign clearly that the ability to take on more risk is

starting to diminish, isn't it? claire: it is in some respects but other respects it is not. when private equities by companies, they use their own equity and debt. the eventual exit is by a sale or ipo. but we haven't really seen that much m&a activity have been for quite a while now, so failing their ability to show returns that way, they are actually turning to the credit markets which are really hot at the moment. we have quite a lot of fun raising happening. they are raising more dirt on these portfolio companies, taking it out as dividends, in order to show returns. despite the recent volatility we have seen, despite the fact that we have seen some refinancings, these things have gone through because investors have a lot of money to put to work, and this is a way to put new money to work. sonali: one thing i'm interested

in is how long this could go on for, how long this borrowing activity is classified as what is called amend and extend. borrowing to get through the lifeline where finally you can actually exit and actually provide a bigger return to shareholders. claire: amend and extend, amend and pretend, everything is up for grabs at the moment. this is just a way of dealing with maturities, trying to use the hot credit markets to reduce your borrowing costs, and at the same time, because you don't see a clear exit plan, trying to raise more money and take that out as a dividend to show some returns. however, the eventual exit is to try and sell or ipo these companies. we are starting to see it. sycamore has announced it is buying one of the biggest leveraged buyout's since the financial crisis. the hope in the markets is that

we will start to see more of these may be in the second half. they have been saying for a while that we will see more m&a activity and it hasn't actually materialized yet. for now in the absence of m&a, we might see a dividend recap happen, we might see a second one had been or even a third. sonali: thank you for your time, excellent story. that is claire ruckin a bloomberg news. read her story about private equity firms dialing back on equity as m&a slumps. as we know, ipos are slumping, as well. we are going to stick with private markets, bring in erik hirsch from hamilton lane. he will talk about the firm's new report on the industry, closely watched by venture capital, private equity firms, plus a big announcement they have for retail investors. this is bloomberg. ♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants?

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this is sonali: bloomberg markets. this is first up, williams-sonoma reporting earnings this morning, and despite beating expectations on revenue, shares are following after its forecast for annual operating margin slightly miss the consensus estimate. you are not seeing it down to six point 6%. also watching general mills stock falling after cutting its guidance for fiscal .20 five sales, another side consumer spending might be slowing across the united states. now down 2.2 percent. tesla shares gaining along with other magnificent seven stocks ahead of the magnet -- for a decision as tech leads the gains. the stock also upgraded at cantor fitzgerald from neutral

to overweight in part due to valuations, due to future catalysts on autonomous driving later this year. the stock is now up three .8 percent, snapping a couple days of losses. turning to private markets, earlier i spoke to guggenheim co. chairman jim milstein, talking about the growth of private credit. >> there is just a tsunami of credit available right now. the growth of the private credit businesses which is unrelenting and continuous, in some ways recycling money out of the insurance industry, which used to be a big bond investors, continue to be thought investors, into a series of specialist funds to do their underwriting. there is plenty of bank liquidity available. sonali: there have been a series of warnings from watchdogs who are on the lookout for vulnerabilities in the rapidly growing industry now home to

investments worth two point $5 trillion, according to one report. hamilton lane is out with its own warnings, saying its own 2025 market overview has private market to an inflection point, the long-term fundamentals remain strong. joining us now is the companies coo -- ceo erik hirsch. something posted online from megan reynolds who is a regular reader of your overview, and one thing stuck out to her and to me. distribution levels are at a low not seen since the great financial crisis, and that has happened at a time of strong equity market performance. this hasn't happened before. you cannot really see the rebound in fundraising until you see that rebound in exits. ipo markets are challenged, m&a markets are challenged. how does that play out? eri great to be back with youk:,

thank you for reading the report. distributions are down. that is not so much an issue of the ipo market. very few liquidity event markets in the ipo market are viewed ipo markets these days. much of it is strategic acquisitions or one fund managers owing to another fund manager. the issue is more about the uncertainty in the market and the timing that is resulting in. today doesn't feel like a great day to sell a business particularly a business that is strong at performing. your prior just talked about what is happening in the credit space. what i would say is we are seeing signs of continued health, not signs of concern. i'm not seeing leverage levels increasing, seeing a really good use of dividend recap as a way to get money back to limited partners, and that's a good thing. sonali: what about the ability to shift into riskier parts of the capital structure when it comes to private assets? venture capital has been a very

big point of fascination after you saw that massive return for example with wiz selling to google, just reported that elon musk's x is raising another billion dollars in new equity funding. some things happening at scale but not everyone is elon musk or alphabet. so what is possible in that world? erik: lots of things are possible and as you noted, there is continued good activity. the issue with venture is the same that it's always been. it is the most unlevel playing field in our asset class. the crucial part as an investor, do you really have access to the right transactions and fund managers? if the answer is yes, the water is warm, go in. if the answer is no, this is not the time to go in. venture needs to continue to right size itself.

we often see the successes that garner a lot of press attention and then inevitably that leads to another fundraising boom, causing too much capital to be in the industry. you want to see more of an equilibrium. we had that coming off of the last year or two where you saw fundraising was down in activity levels were lightening up. as long as it stays that way and if you have the right access an partners, things continue to look interesting. sonali: what about this push into retail? something i've been thinking about, private markets, even for big institutional investors, have been a complicated place to navigate. where is the most interest and ease of access for the retail investor? erik: as you well know because you have covered it for so long, a core part of pensions and pension success has been accessing the private markets. it wasn't all that long ago when pension typical allocation was three, 5%, then it became 10%, then continued performance drivers, diversification has caused it to rise to 15, 20%.

40 typical individual, their allocation to the private markets is essentially 0%. and it should be such an important part of people's savings tools as i think about retirement. we have issued retirement crisis in the country and elsewhere around the globe. having private markets be part of a thoughtfully constructed portfolio we think is essential. historically, access has been the issue. the minimums that go into these vehicles have been so high that it was really only the role for ultra high net worth individuals, high net families. what we are now seeing on the technology front, primarily through the use of tokenization, is an ability to bring those minimums down, providing much easier access to a much broader set of investors. we think that's great. sonali: talk about what you are putting out there. i was really struck by the ability of a new product that you are putting out to be offered for as low as $500.

it used to be you had to have $10,000 to get into one of these funds. your offering, sounds like via tokenization, $500 minimums are possible. erik: it was not long ago when the minimums were $5 million, a world where only institutional investors and ultra wealthy people. and our partnership today, and we are announcing today with a partner of ours called republic, we have tokenized a hamilton lane infrastructure product, something that we think is a terrific wind at your beck strategy right now with you on shoring and spending occurring in this country around data centers, roads, charging stations, you name it, all of that is an infrastructure world. in doing that vehicle via a token, we can bring down investment minimums to $500, something that's never been done before, something that alters the landscape of who can participate here. sonali: looking forward to

seeing exactly where this goes. a lot of talk about tokenization on the program today. just shows you how vast the conversation is. that is erik hirsch, the co-ceo of hamilton lane. breaking, elon musk's x has raised almost a billion dollars in new equity funding, and ideal values the company at roughly $32 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. the valuation is in line when he took it private in 2022. musk has participated in the equity raise, according to people who asked not to be identified discussing private information. it has been an incredible turn of events for elon musk in the fundraising market. we will keep our eyes on any new updates as we get them, including some of the fundraisers themselves. the latest for a decision to at 2:00 today. earlier, td securities had this to say. >> the market is so much worried

about growth and inflation right now. the conversation about inflation versus growth is when everyone is nervous about.

>> welcome back. michael mckee is at the federal reserve but we will get that rate decision at 2:00 eastern. what have you got? mike: not a lot today i don't think. the fed will strive to stayu of the fray because they don't have any details on the president's plans, so what they would do is put out a statement that is little changed, put out a dot plot that probably still has two cuts in it for this year, and put on a summary of economic projections that doesn't change the forecast all that much. they certainly will not change rates. then it's a question of what jay powell says, those who give wall street the fed put that they want that the fed will jump in if something goes wrong in the markets, or we are standing by for more information. it is a tough call for the fed. at this point, it doesn't look like they can do a whole lot

because they don't know a whole lot. sonali: looking forward to your readout and questions. that big fed decision you want to keep your eyes on on bloomberg tv. balance of power is next. of course, the great fed special. this is bloomberg.

>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of power.

live from washington, d.c. joe: president zelenskyy warms up to the idea of a partial cease-fire. welcome to the faster show in politics as to linsky speak to president trump today for the first time since their oval office meeting people we are just getting some of the first details of their call. i'm joe mathieu alongside kailey leinz in washington. thanks for joining us on the wednesday edition of balance of power. one thing that we know as we await for individual readout from the white house, russia continued bombing ukraine heavily overnight. kailey: although our colleagues on surveillance asked president trump special envoy steve witkoff about that and he suggested that while putin had agreed to the terms of this energy and infrastructure cease fire, it has not yet been able to be conveyed to all russian forces. unclear whether it was communications or what happened here,