sonali: welcome to -- scarlet: welcome to "bloomberg markets." take a look at the s&p 500. at the lowest point of the session. all mag seven names are higher, gaining 1.9% at the moment. we will continue to keep an eye on whether they hold onto those advances. the vix has backed off. yesterday, it reached as high as 60, currently at 40 to come off

five points from yesterday's close. the two year yield moving to 1.77%. we will see -- to 3.77%. later this week, there is going to be an auction of 10 year and 30 year bonds as well. in the meantime, let's return to equities and check in on a couple individual movers. for that, we go to bloomberg's emily graffeo. emily: nvidia also moving higher after the market route. the stock was down over 7% friday but ended the day yesterday in the green. it's extending gains up about 4% right now, really demonstrating the hardest to areas of the market are the ones rallying the most today. who knows if that is going to hold as we continue on into the week. check out shares of levi strauss. this stock has been moving around all day. it was up as much as 16%. now it is lower by quite a bit,

almost 5%. the company projected growth, and they seemed to shrug off the impact of tariffs in their earnings results. they said there full-year guidance would be maintained and that assumes no significant worsening of macro pressures on consumers, increased tariffs, or similar factors. that seems to be something that shareholders liked earlier in the day, but it was not enough to keep those gains going. steve ohio a buy on this shock, saying the diversified supply chains are advantages in off any -- offsetting tariff impacts. health care companies getting a boost. watching united health care, that stock up 6% right now. this is all coming after the u.s. government increased 20 point six payments for medicare advantage plans. those plans will see payments increase by an average of 5.06

percent, double the rate the government proposed in january. a big boost for health insurance companies. scarlet: thank you so much. the word of the day, you could say of the last few days, is "volatility." u.s. markets open higher today, but it has been a bumpy trading session. last hour, a former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers told bloomberg he think this could go on for a while. he also says recession is more likely than not. larry: if they backed off these policy errors, i think there would be a substantial resumption of normality. as long as a hospital maintains unsanitary conditions, its patients get infections when they enter. and as long as these policies are being pursued, we are going to see substantial volatility in markets. scarlet: for more on the action in markets, let's bring in lisa shalett.

she is chief investment officer of wealth management at morgan stanley. always a pleasure to speak with you. you make a note you need to know the endgame in order to have a view on earnings or the economy. problem is, nobody knows the endgame. how much do you read into today's market rebound? lisa: not much. yesterday, we were spending most of the day reviewing inputs from our debts, watching for signs of capitulation -- from our desks, watching for signs of capitulation. while we saw some signs of capitulation, some degrossing, by the institutional community, hedge fund community, what has been surprising to us is that private clients and some of our investors have continued to be

buy-the-dip investors. while we certainly got to oversold conditions yesterday, we don't think we are at a point of capitulation, a point of a larry summers scenario of an actual recession, which is a nonzero possibility, gets discounted. we think that point would come where markets and s&p 500 could fall as much as 46 -- could fall as much as to 4600. we are not making the call here, but to your point, volatility is here to stay. scarlet: so how do you think about a trumpput or a fed put? nobody knows anything when it comes to policy, but is there a pin point at which you would expect or might expect, or could reasonably expect, some kind of intervention? lisa: look, i think that's one

of issues investors have had to grapple with. unfortunately, as 2025 has ruled out, both the fed put and the fiscal or trump put has been removed. the fed has been making clear, since their first meeting in january, that they are focused on the data, they are focused on patients. -- focused on patience. they do not see urgency, and they want to be mindful and watchful of inflation, and obviously, this tariff data makes their job that much harder, points chair powell emphasized friday. i think the trump administration and their various communiqués over the weekend, through their various cabinet member ambassadors, have all made it clear, this ain't over quickly. while bessent, i think, is trying to talk about

negotiation, you have folks like peter navarro really digging in and saying, no, this is a strategic repositioning of global trade policy for the rest of time, and this is where we are, and nothing's changing. i think that suggests it would take a lot more pain for the american people, meaning unemployment and not just stockmarket pain for trump to rethink the direction of travel. scarlet: a lot of concern here with how policy's unfolding, and how the administration moves next is that these policies could undermine foreign demand for u.s. assets, particularly u.s. treasuries. the treasury market, the u.s. dollar are no longer the risk-free instruments people had always assumed they would be. you look at the 30 year yield yesterday jumping 23 basis points by the close, the biggest one-day increase since march of 2020. do we have a sense of whether

this was forced selling, buyers dumping u.s. assets in favor of more attractive assets in, say, japan or germany? lisa: i do not know if i would say it was forced selling. globally, currency traders, global investors are rebalancing portfolios, and they are rebalancing portfolios not just because, to your point, there is uncertainty, but i think, for the first time in 80 years, there are threads of mistrust. there are threads that, hey, we thought we had allies, we thought we had deals, we thought we had global forums, like the wto, to deal with perceived inequities and to litigate and discuss those things.

that is a game over. the events, even this morning, to rebuff european gestures to want to negotiate were really playing hardball with a lot of regions that can very easily reposition some of their foreign currency reserves and diversify away from u.s. dollars. both strategically and emotionally. scarlet: i guess that brings us to the idea of u.s. exceptionalism. the strong stockmarket, the strong dollar, is that over? it was being unwound even before april 2, but is that over? lisa: i don't want to say it is over, because so many of the fundamental underpinnings of the u.s. exceptionalism argument still exist, in terms of the wonderful, innovative companies we have, the ability for american companies to drive high return on assets and high levels of productivity. but i do think some of the key pillars of this exceptionalism, certainly that has characterized

the last 15 years, is under assault by the current administration, in terms of changing the rules of the game and changing the degree to which our allies believe themselves to be our allies. scarlet: and a quick note, the s&p 500 at session lows, now just up 1%. very quickly, as we look ahead, you expect more volatility, but what is your best gauge of stress in the markets, what will you look for to determine how much more pain or where that pain might show up? lisa: for us, it is in the credit markets, that the cost of capital, the corporate cost of capital, has been where the point of stress is for regional banks or venture capitalists, for small businesses. happily, as much volatility as we have seen in the rates market and in their credits market the last three or four days, the reality is most of the increase in credit spreads has been

offset by downward moves in rates. so the overall cost of capital for most companies in the investment-grade universe and the higher tranches of high-yield have remained reasonably stable. that is extraordinarily constructive for us and for the strength of the u.s. economy. scarlet: key takeaway there, then. thank you so much. lisa shalett with morgan stanley. coming up, levi strauss giving out outlook that raised eyebrows, as well as the company's stock price, at least initially. we will tell you more about what the company had to say, or not, about tariffs. this is bloomberg. ♪ (background sounds) investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? (background sounds) freeze in your tracks? (♪♪) or, let curiosity light the way.

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scarlet: i mentioned earlier how all the mag seven names were higher. that is no longer the case. apple now down 0.8%, and the mag 7 as a group has pared their advance. bitcoin now erasing its earlier gain, now down 1.7% at the moment as the major indexes in the equity market lose steam and fall to their worst levels of the session. still holding onto gains but lower than before. let's check in on our stock of the hour, which is levi. getting caught up in the market volatility. the denon brand maintained its full your outlook despite the increased tariffs. levis'says its guidance assumes no significant worsening. lily meyer joins us now. the stock is lower despite this

recovery in the overall market. what happened here, why the volatility in levi specifically? >> we spoke to analysts who couldn't point anything specific but said there is overall volatility in the space and especially in the specialty apparel business, so it may have just been a symptom of what is going on in the market more broadly. scarlet: let's go on to the full year outlook. they excluded the impact of recent tariffs, which i guess is not that surprising because they do not know anything about what is going to happen. what were investors looking for? the actually wanted color on this? lily: it seemed that investors were happy with what levi did because of the stock rally. they said we found out this news five days before, and it was 2 -- too soon to include it. scarlet: nevertheless, we saw jpmorgan upgrading the stock, in part because of the ceo's strategy that expands levi's total addressable market.

what is that? lily: levi's has traditionally been direct to consumer and wholesale. they are prioritizing direct to consumer now. they want to open their own stores and they want to focus on women and providing items are not just jeans. so you can buy your top or other accessories, things like that. scarlet: things within their control, because certainly tariffs are not. bloomberg's lily meier. another company that has given up its advance is apple, the stock now lower, extending its three-day 19% plunge. customers are rushing to buy iphones. watching to see how apple navigates tariffs. let's take a look at the stock. it is down about .5%. so apple's best-selling and most important arctic is the iphone, and it is made in china. more than any other company, apple needs clarity on tariffs.

so far, there is no movement on that now, so it has become a proxy for u.s. trade talks, in a way. >> absolutely. there is still so much uncertainty on how apple will navigate the -- in which will have detrimental invocations on its sales growth. it is also possible they get an exemption, as they did in the first trump term. scarlet: especially after trump has threatened to add another 50% tariffs on china after china retaliated with its own. we know apple has spent years trying to shift more production to other asian countries, vietnam and now india. that idea is still not helping the stock that much, because those countries also face tariffs. ryan: absolutely. and the idea they will bring manufacturing back here. any change to its supply chain

will take a long time. it will be very costly for them. the idea you could have any sort of quick solution is out of the realm of possibility. scarlet: just to clarify, we are hearing from the white house that the 104% levy on chinese imports into the u.s. gains tomorrow. we knew april 9 would be the starting date for those tariffs. let's talk about the rush to buy iphones. the assumption was apple would need to raise prices once tariffs take effect, and consumers are rushing to get there. is that a given, that apple will raise prices? ryan: we just do not know what they will do at this point. they may have to raise prices, they may absorb some of the cost. right now, it is unclear. a lot of people i speak to expect some combination of the both. maybe they will raise prices, maybe at the higher end models, maybe they will absorb some of this. they are still viewed as a very high quality company, so they are able to take a little bit of

a hit, but this is a company we are already kind of concerned about their long-term growth profile. that is why you see people flee the stock. scarlet: a lot of analysts are holding back on earnings adjustments, but that could change in the next couple weeks. bloomberg's ryan vlastelica. coming up on "bloomberg markets ," despite the volatility in markets, some traders have found ways to win since tariffs were announced last week. some on wall street, like in griffin, still raising red flags -- like ken griffin, still raising red flags. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm scarlet fu. while markets have been volatile and sinking, some funds are swimming. bluecrest up 20%. bluecrest solely manages the

wealth of platt and his partners, and for more, let's bring in bloomberg's chief correspondent covering hedge funds. when we look at who is up, who is down, michael platt did very well. what do we know about how he is achieving those 20% returns? >> one consistent thing at his firm is abundant use of leverage. that has accelerated its gains. it is all his money. there is very little visibility on how the firm is managed, how risk is taken, but the little we know about his firm is he ask -- acts like a multi-manager, multi strategy hedge fund, uses tons of leverage, and keeps on producing these stunning returns, which is really unparalleled in the industry right now. scarlet: and 20%. i know it is early in the year.

that is actually one of the lower returns. 2022, which was a terrible year for stocks and bonds, it was something like 150%. nishant: 20% is so mediocre for michael platt. [laughter] scarlet: well said. another fund you are looking at also begins with blue, blue diamond asset management. this is a swiss hedge fund, down about 20%. given the volatility in markets, this is a volatility-focused hedge fund. so what happened? nishant: it seems that we -- we don't know the exact reasons, but it seems they were sure volatility, there were some trades that did not pay off. but looking at their past, there worst month before this was 7.1%, way back in 2013. otherwise, they have a very

solid track record. but something really went wrong in the first week of april. scarlet: volatility would suggest they should do well in this kind of environment. let's talk about the other hedge funds, multi strategy hedge funds, whether from millennium or citadel. what we know about how they are performing? nishant: they produced almost zero returns, but who knew that, in this world -- this is one of those moments when zero looks amazing. in the overall context of things. so debt investors are happy. multi straps -- multi strats had done the job, which is to soften the blow to a portfolio whenever there is a massive selloff, like what we are experiencing now. so some have made some money, like schonfeld made money in two of its funds.

citadel was down, millennium was down. pretty good, solid, steady performance across multi-manager strategy hedge funds right now. i think they have proved their worth. scarlet: flat is the new up, given what kind of volatility we have seen in the markets so far this quarter. bloomberg's nishant kumar, our hedge fund guru guy in london. before we hand things over to "balance of power," a quick tech of where things stand. the s&p 500 gaining 1.1%, so off the lows of the session, still holding on to its advance, but a far cry from its earlier advances of about 4.1%. this is turnaround tuesday after three days of declines across equity markets. the vix has backed off as well. it is still elevated nonetheless. in about four minutes, we will

get the results of the 58 billion dollars sale of three year notes. there has been some concern over whether there are cracks in demand for u.s. treasuries and for u.s. assets overall. later this week, we get options of the 10 year and 30 year bond as well. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power."

live from washington, d.c. joe: the tuesday edition as we count down a reciprocal tariffs taking effect at midnight and china pledging to fight to the end. wouldn't know by watching wall street though. i am joe mathieu alongside kailey leinz in washington. hopes for deals to be announced by the white house, but nothing has really changed yet. kailey: we know conversations are being had, learned about negotiations with japan yesterday. president trump today says he is talking with south korea. or another country in asia, seems like we will not be so lucky to see a deal before midnight, as china is suggesting they will not flinch when trouble comes our way, and a u.s. official saying the u.s. official -- the u.s. will be moving forward with