> from the nasdaq market se new york city in times square, this is "fast money" we have a special interview with the economist that sta the infamous chatt this week about possible second stimulus. it's an intervw thatould movehe markets next week. u have to be on the right side of that trad e stock market falling in the fourth week in a row since the firsstreak in march. how do you profit and protec against this correctn. how let's get the word key levels here, 870. >> we heldt, tested it. you' in no man's land. i'rather test 870, rally above close 885 or so. thiss some room. ght straight to the levelsnd mang it difficult coming in to next week. i don't thinit will hold 870. it feel feels ke low here.

earnings next week, a hodgepge but if you'rlong on the weekend. >> if you look at -- tking about the big brokers there. 30% to 40% of the oswere on the ort side. we came in with cha export numbers. if this wathe engine for growth, that's not whathey wanted to se eighth strght month of lower activity. the ammution is higher. not sure it's there. we look like we forestalled fall this week that's probably still coming >> first half hour, we came out of the gate, we wantedo rally. the s&p wanted to geck above 880. we talked on the show about the michigan consumer confidence came out. not so h. we're not feeling confident about anything. go back to theneloyment port we saw at the beginning of the month. that's w this whole convsation about the second imulus is occurring because right now the's no confidence

when we're losing jobs athe rate we are. >> at the same time. we're talking to laura tyson about this if we did get word the thiis floated out the. this is the possility this is on t table, a second stimulus plan, would that be goor the markets ithat one of the things that the markets will say is it worse than we althought. it's terrible news. >> that's the interpretati i would re is things are worse than we thought. i would not like to see a send stimulus for that reason besides the fiscal possibility. to me, though, of all of the data that we look at, the consum confince is one of the lesser iortant ones. an isn't a measure of anything in tes of inventory, in terms of sales, in tes of -- it's just a asure of sentiment and sentiment ca change quickly. we've seen in is market how you can have a flood of sells become a torrent of burs. so, i doput too much in to consumer sentime. >> the other part ofhe sentiment that was good this week, a big part oit if have stimulus which is the treasury mark. a strong week.

the ten-year options, e of the record in terms demand, a 30-yeaoption. foren central banks more in the options thther weeks. we're buying and are buys. is that a sign of a weak economy. i think it more that. >> there are trades t there. avid ls are in for a long time a great run since ril. 41 and change. almost tested 49 a cple of weeks ago. we talked about how 49 is going to take profits. w it's pulled back. ess wh, they report on dnesday. morgan stanlaised the fiscal teestimates, $4.11. u put the multiple on it, $49. the analysts loweredhe price target t46. avid aad of earnings the name they want to dip theiroe in to. >> you look at the entire market. oiprices do not stay above 0. ths&p is going to roll over. the s&p is going to roll over. what do we need from oil? we need stabilizatio that'st.

speclatorso end and oil prices just to stabilize. vacillate noh and south of $60 and the s&p catrade a little momentum. >> we've seecrude l drop 10%. this week alone. if you separate out. in the halfte repo, you were talking out the speculative premium that's been in the pri of oil. you backedt out to $58 a share. you closed just ove $59 a barrel today. >> watching the fls, watching oil fututrade today, you've seen significant amots of selling comen. clearly everne is moving to the sidelines on theutures side. the energy equity namesure in we talked about that. they are coming in. they're crafting the exposure anay thecan get it. they're looking at oilervice names, they're loong at global tegrated names. i tell y what, on the refirs, today, i bought frontier, a refiner. i know everybody came inere and arted to talk about the negativity surrounding t refiners. it is pred forrmageddon, folks. it's a great hedge agast omic recovery.

a hurricane. i like the refiners here. thbad news is in the prize. price. >> have to be worried that chron comes out and said the strong dollar is offsetting any ins it seen in oil. >> t refining margins. >> they are the biggest refiner -- >> the refining margins a quarr of tir earnings. >> ty're an integrated oil company. i agrewith you. it's intesting it's notable on that day. it down 3.5%. ey're talking about the falling doar overseas. they're the first of theuys to rert and the first of the guys to warn. so i do think we'll see

something milar. it's a dferent balance sheet. i feel fine in exxon here. >> more than any o commodity. oil is a commoty that did it a visual tn. did it at $70. did it at $35. will do itgain for you. that being said, it hasn't swn it will turn back up yet you'll know when idoes. it hasn't haened yet. i stay ay from integrateds. you look at the service na you you haveo impressed. ose are the stocks that have corrected much more than t ice ofil. yocan still be safe with some of those names. that being s if the tape is itoing to break down, you' not safe in anything. but l services -- >> to put a wrap on this, meliss

the qution is, do they come back to the oil futures phase? i mean, ifil tic up again, do we e everyone pile back in and get the futures? or do they do as we have suggested on the dk and get equitylode euroin energy needs. >> tre's a reason to invest in oil to begin with, the volatility, the extra juice you can have you don't getrom the s&p. >> it's so pure of play where some of the equities are not pure play. so many factors going he equity price the market for one oil futures a re play. but i really think we have not seen the end of this derivive discussion. that's a really importt aspect of who's gng to be in these rkets and what instruments a they going to ussoou can see a rther decoupling. it's bn a couple of days. it's so dramatic. but a furthedecouple. >> you wl expect a further plea out of the futuremarket even if we do see l prices. joe brin up a good point if the oil prices go higher. they're able to leave itn the table. >> they may not be ae . they may n take speculative long pitions in the oil if some of the things we heard about -- oil prices, just to give people an idea of where we are, wherit cou go. we're 8% belowhe 50-day moving avage in the worst of oil's price down. went below the 50-day average. oil technical, joe will tell you that. we, either way, are not too far off of the bottom here. i would say 57 is your next stop. then 52. but i ink we're going to rally off 57. >> youade the point this administration this, is the on administration thawill get it done wn it comes to regution. >> move on time to take youpotion. we hava couple of earnings ahd next week. intel,oogle, ibm on deck. who will rise to theccasion?

jim goldman joins us wh a prevw. certainly, j, it is interesting that we ha the goldman sachs, downgrade oibm shifts to the growth names ahe of next we. >> an interestg ll. you're talking about a real slew of top th names where we're eing the earnings estimates creep up a ltle bit. guid is getting exciting as far as the analys are concerned. the call oibm is interesting if youhink about the to go on the back halff is ed year. ibs commentary is going to be keas far as where this stock goes. if you're talking out intel and gole, you know, we've watched estimatecreep up by key analys on wall street in the past week or twoi'm wondering ifre's too much opmism. ey're expecting good news. too ch optimism and some of the estimates are gettinead of ourselv. again, it'coming down to mmentary to see where the companies see threst othe year coming. intel is looking good, so google.

>> goldm sachs is playing a dangerous game of stock market here with ibm. m on may 13 told us they were going to make between $1and $11 a share 010. they have a huge recurring scheme. they're not as clical. i'm t sure what they do here, but ibm, if it pulls bac you have to own is name. >> if yosee any weakness with ibm because the mpany has been sentially much more bullish than most of the otherech companies out there, especially if we ok at the third and urth quarter calendar year in 20 and 2010, this is a company that sees thin start to pick up, among the top enterpri customers, not jushere in the unitedtates but internationally so. for goldman to make the call it's making now, you wonder ere the information is coming from. you are got to think that m is going to meet expectatns. the company hadone well in the la couple of quarters. >> i'm curious whau think about is what microsoft. if you look at what ceos are

going to do, on tech speg 40% of the cs terviewed are ing to be upgrading to windows 7 in the first year. this has given tse gipthe kind of upgradthe earnings and grth that goldman is talking about here. i'm curious your view. >> well, yeah, i think t windows 7 upgre cle is going toe the key for so much of the technology community. this is not ju a microsoft story. this is a netbook sty, an intestory, an hp and dell sty. this is going to be a significant upgrade cycl becausof where it's happening in the economic time line at we've seen. so many coanies have held off through this economic downturn oing any kind of major purchases as far as mputer or technology upgrades are concerned. windows is coming at a time en companies are beginni to think, yeah, we wanto upgrade our softre and the process we're going to upgrade our hardware as well. maybe not in the third and urth quarter this year but it will start to catch on fire

the first and second quarters of 2010. >> thank you f your time and yo reporting. we should note thathe goldman sachs note sd the cycle would 2010. >> to add to this, you have look athe semiconductor look at the durable goods showing ratios binningo rise in terms of w orders versus inntories. a name i like, parigm. i jump bac to it today. e miconductor space is thered in that demand. think that on this pullback an opportuty >> do you like the goldm name in terms of switching to dell? or would you favorther computer makers or do you se ibm at $0.83? >> i don't love the dell stor i think is still in a state of flux. i ink ibm is a name i'm much more comfortable with. i like walmart. go-to value positionig now. if the market rallie you'll do fine. if the markestarts to fall

art, y'll get much more perks. >> cret suisse reads numbers as well. if youook at the bernstein piece, that would be the big winner along with wlett packard. dell didn't do anythg. changed all y. it's okay, should haveeen higher. i know john likes it. dell is pretty interesng. >> a final thought on chnolo. if there's one secr that understands deflationary environment that has bn through it with thtech double 2001, look at technology. they get it. ey know how to manage th inventories. ey've been through this crisis before. >> financials got hit ha today. the financial etf using more than%. when you look at the calendar, which financls will set the tone. yes, goldman sachsexpected do well. we have that upgrade earlier this week that sing the revenues cld exceed 2007. but at the same time, 're

best in cls. a sera kind of breed. they used their capital differently than other financials. they set the tone from the rest of the group. >> jmoan is more of a bellwether. >> oy. >> you have a diamond thing. >> oka hello, mr. diamond. >> aside from that, the training revenue, thinkt's a one off quarr. look amount jpmorg. some of the aspects. a huge rurringtream and bank of arica and stuff like that. but me, jp morgan is the bellwether. >> a victory of their own success. as a matter of fact, t training revenueare too good, all of the analysts come out and say there's no way to reicate. and they said it many times. list, we like goldman but we don't like it at the levs it currently tres at. 134, 135 getinteresting. we saw this this week. it c easily get back down the. then you take a lo. in the 140s.

it'sead moy. >> goldman has not seen l of the drain the other guys have. lo at bank of america. they were trading with thether guys, they're ne. me of the best brokers hav left those shops goldman isoing to have reco -- record payouts in -- for 2008 earnis. that's increble. that wilkeep goldman on top because they areaking risk in a different way than theest. >> i like morgan stanley, it's basically goldmasachs light. they're a ader in the m&a vity. gaining, acquiring people from ore entities. other entities. morgan stanley might be the play. >> the bigger qution is, yes, th'll gethe points next week. that wl provide you with the trade. the outlk, fdr makes a good play here, the second quarte going to be noy. e we going to get a good picture of finanals gog forward in termsf beyond the past quarter? >> i think a lot of us driving the story is l provisions. what is the credit quality is it continued deterioratio

>> unemployment wnr higher? >> it's not good for any consumer loans they have outstanding and big credit cd portfolios at ba of america and jpmorgan which goldmanfor exame, doesn't have much exposure. they suld have commercial real estate exposure where a loof banks have overlapping same credit issues there. that's goingo be iortant which is why i come jpmorgan as bellwether. >> all of america is watching in awe. general motors promisi that the fallen giant will be reform and business is as usual. th is ov. what does thatn for the industry and the econo as a whole? phil lebu, our reporter joins us from outside of gm's headquarters in deoit. it's interesng they're trying lose a chapter on a compan that's not knownor acting very quickly inhe past. >> it . the fact thathey believe they

can be a company that can b nimble and react to other compani. not only to marketo different produc but in terms of changing perceptions witthe american car buyer. they have a tall ordern front of themsels. i said it for sotime. going througbankruptcy is the sy part. straigenut the balance sheet. that's the easy rt. the tough parts changing perceptis built up over decades for general motors, beg a plodding, ow company that doesn't havimaginative vehicl or when they do, it's one and then more boring vehicles. they're going to have to really run fast tchangehat perception. >> and beyond the peeption at this poi, they've lost market share to ford and to others. they don't have maew models comi i what is thr strategy at this poin they seem to be bend the game. >> as far as the models, they have a product cadence that far more aggressive than chsler. tually, it might not be as aggressive as ford. but it's not as though the cup board is dry. they have product thats coming. the prlem is they have sentially for the last six nths to nine months, no

marking at all. none whaoever. and as a result, t public is looking at general motors an say, okay, what chevy ve coming? at's cadillac have out the? they have reintroduce themlves to the american public. that's gng to ke some time. gm entered bankruptcy. nobody wou buy a car from them. the warranties we -- people were uertain about that. now theyntered and exited bankruptcy. has that phenomenon come to pass? >> absolutely. i think, karenessentially that s put on the side as a concern once the president sod up at the white house and said, you ow what, the federal government is gog to stand behindm and chrysler waanties. you' ner have to worry if your car breaks down. if you buy the vehicles, i is not le you're going to be stuck with a vehicle you can get repaired. cee said that, that put th concern to rest. now you have a company, alg with chrysler, they've gone through is so quickly.

you n't hear people talking about, well, maybehe resual values on thesvehicles will plumt. chrysler's residl values have incrsed since coming out of bankruptcy. it will be interesting to see the same thing happens wit general motors. >> got it. anks so much. enjoyour weekend. thatas "the word on the street." mysterieies in t world, an, and surprise i lieve that fun is aenenewable resource. ♪ there are so things you'll never be ablble to download. ♪ i believe that when we cebrate life... in c caturesig and small, we d discover connections... ththat sy with us forever.

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>> right before r eyes, they are phingthe governnt, $235 llion in buses for the guys who put it the tch, i think is absurd.

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