a fresh read on the consumer consumer, how did shoppers hold up in the month of june? we'll know tomorrow with the june retail sales report. we are watching out for the ppi, the producer price index comes out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time on tuesday. the expectations are pretty tight range from 9/10 to one full percent of the up side for the month of june. compare that to 2/10 of a percent in may. wholesale prices are going to be basically flat. and before we say good night, take a look at the day on wall street before we approach the opening tomorrow and some activity in the extended hours tonight. the dow industrials ending at the highs o the day. financials led the way with a gain of 185 points, 2.25% higher on the dow, 8,331 is where the dow industrials finished out.

s&p 500 picked up 22 points, about 2.5%, at 901 and change, nasdaq up 37 points, at 1,793. oil was down below $60 a barrel is where oil finished and dell was also a major story in the extended hours. down 4%, talking about weakness because of low march gins, jim goldman reporting that the netbook business is going to continue to impact margins because it is a lower priced product. dell may very well trade lower on the heels of that act nift the extended hours tonight. have a fantastic evening. "fast money's" next. dell shares fall after hours as the company projects a slight sequential increase in second quarter revenues. the gross margin modest declines. shares of csx are higher, came in above expectations and ron

blome will replace steven radner. "fast money" with melissa lee starts now. from the nasdaq market site in new york city's time square, this is "fast money," i'm melissa lee, these are the "fast money" traders. lots of action during and after the bell. dell, in fact, down 3% after saying customers are deferring sales. we'll get to that in a moment. but first, stocks jumping the most in six weeks today after meredith whitney turns bullish. let's get to the word on the street right now. s&p 500 closing higher by 2.5% above the 900 level. good leadership from tech as well as the financials. welcome back. >> welcome back, it's good to be back. we've been looking and struggling for a long time now looking for somebody to lead us. we've been talking it wasn't going to be energy. energy led us for a while, now we've got a leader potentially coming back. it starts off tomorrow, starts today a little bit with goldman sachs, the financials, then you

started to get, tech started working. that's what hit us back in march, started to move us in april. if this earnings season can give us a catalyst, that's what everybody's been waiting for and goldman sachs is going to kick it off. >> i'm going to put my skeptics cap on. this seems like a bounce, a reflex ahead of earnings season. karen, what do you make of this? >> it's sort of a levation. it's really not in to earning yet. right now it did just seem like a little bit of a bounce on really nothing, it was nice meredith whitney turned bullish, but throughout the day it's gone higher. >> goldman sachs, recall if you listen to her said she was a bullish care, but a bearish call. she thinks the consumer is going to get crushed take at least a year to a year and a half for them to come out. i happen to agree with her. i like her call on goldman, eps makes sense.

this is going to be a great quarter, we've talked about that for a long time. can they follow through in the next quarter? >> this is the second upgrade. >> she needs to think about that. probably a low-risk move to do it, i don't know if i necessarily agree with it. >> i don't think there was necessarily as big of a response to meredith whitney as there was, there was asset allocation and you saw a lot of the way this market was trading today and you didn't have any data or earnings. tomorrow, retail sales, ppi, we came in this morning and asia looked somewhat broken. talk about that later, talk about emerging markets. i don't think asia's in a good place and i do think it's a bit ahead of itself. let's get on to the real numbers tomorrow. i think today was a bit of a blip. >> the trend of volatility lastly, you look at today, we've been talking about volatility. last week, a little bit of fear, we got the volatility back up to 33, that lasted about 30 seconds and since that time, down, down, down. that's the trend we've been seeing, that's a good thing

because it's telling you people are getting much more comfortable with the marketplace. i've got to tell you, if you believe that the $20 she says they can earn, we're talking about a 10 pe, actually less than that, even at 186. i tend to look at this and think if she's right, she's not late to the party, she's getting on board for another $30 to $40. >> another $30 to $40. at the same time, can we draw conclusions about this upgrade of goldman sachs that followed the upgrade we saw from citi last week? goldman is not necessarily the barometer for the financials, it's the trading revenues. she says because of the tsunami of debt issuance that is coming to market that goldman will be able to take advantage of it in the coming months and years ahead as we just dive feverishly -- >> sustainability of earnings and these guys can repeat these numbers and we're not sure how they're going to do it but they're going to reinvent themselves, they always do. that's what's different here. a lot of people think first and second quarter trading revenues were one off because of enormous probably once in a lifetime

spreads in fixed income et cetera. i think that's somewhat true, but i do think they are so far ahead in terms of no other competition and the guys are probably best at taking risks. >> we've been trying to -- last week around 32, take profits, take your short back, now look at it today. the risk reward trade sets up easily ahead of earnings, 34.75, great day by jpm, but 35.25, still what we talked about. i think you can get short jpmorgan here, stop on a close below 35.25. that might be painful, but this is a painful market. risk-reward. >> by the way, the last thing on the whole topic, it was the topic all day long. but you look at the spike in volatility, people are expecting a move. the majority of the paper today coming after calls. last week they were buying puts, trying to protect themselves, going into this earnings cycle, now all of a sudden, you get this huge influx of call buyers. they might be a little bit late to the party, and probably too much premium. and that's how the trade sets

up. something karen and i were discussing before the show. that volatility's virtually unchanged trading about 41 to 42 volatility, well over 60%. that's the trade going in. selling that july, trying to take advantage of that premium and buying the august. >> meredith whitney talked about a whole lot of other things besides goldman sachs. she's a little bit skeptical about the economy. take a listen to what she said earlier today. >> unemployment continues to drive higher. and the banks are not prepared for double digit unemployment. so that's going to be an issue for them that does not go away for the next, you know, year and a half. >> so basically the goldman call was the tallest midget in the room kind of call. but at the same time the banks rally on the back of the earnings -- the back of the call, excuse me, despite what she had to say about the economy in general. bank of america, that was an interesting call that she made. she said essentially that it's cheap when you take a look at tangible book value.

doesn't mean you should buy it, though. >> that's true. although, it sounded to me -- i did see that part she was on "squawk box" this morning, it did sound she was more bullish on bank of america, which you own. i think bank of america is attractive here, however, when we talk about head winds facing the consumer, bank of america does have significant consumer exposure. they have a very large credit card portfolio. and so for them, they may base a lot of the head winds that goldman sachs may not without having the consumer exposure. >> and this is where tech comes into place. she made that call around the 870 level on the s&p. today's level held and bounced. if she made this call about 40 or 50 points ago, you may not have gotten the same reaction. she made it at the perfect time in terms of inflexion point. this is what i thought we'd do last week. but again, i'm more inclined at this point to sell -- >> fixed income trading and all of the rest of it, how about morgan stanley. everybody's talking about goldman sachs, i realize that's

the earnings. i've got to figure, morgan stanley is really well positioned going in. it has been sort of depressed, holding underneath 30 for quite a while, trading around 27. looks a little bit like it might be cheap. their numbers could be extreme, as well. i think they could crush it almost like goldman sachs. >> the stock you wanted to buy was morgan stanley. and turn over to that last week, he called them goldman light, which i don't think john mack would appreciate but he was right on with that call. that's where you wanted to play this and morgan stanley outperformed. >> will we see the same earning we typically see? usually had been in the past, but of course, they are no longer with us. goldman sachs is first out of the gate, we will get a pop in the whole sector will rally and that is the end of the rally. >> could be. could be a huge mine day for goldman and could be the stocks up $4 or $5. big volume day, maybe the tape reverses, maybe goldman reverses on the back of it. that's what you're looking for. if you see a big volume day,

then the tape gets very scary to me, then 870 taking that on on the downside becomes -- >> the last thing is, goldman sachs, that's a great indicator, but then you look to later in the week to see if there's follow through. that's one name, they are unique, the best in breed, you've got to look at how the rest of the financials are doing. >> let's get you up to date on after hours action we're tracking for you. could dell dampen the euphoria? the nasdaq specifically higher by more than 2%. after the close, pc maker saying it expects slight sequential revenue growth in q-2, it has also seen a decline in gross margins, also seen customers defer purchases, not good news. >> that is not good news. and you know, dell, i think has some of the issues that are specific to dell. but deferral and purchases is not what you want to hear when you own things like hp, which we own. also not great for intel. you can see a lot of the peripheral names that would go along with this. this is not a good thing. and this is, you know, maybe

more indication that these green shoots are not so green. >> you've been bullish or constructive on dell in the past. >> i love del, and they still have to show us growth. we've been talking about dell, we love dell, but they've got to show us growth, and how are they going to do that? they've got to make an acquisition to show they're looking ahead. the intel story is different. that partnership with nokia, that could be really something that could push them to the next level, the readers, the e-readers they possibly will develop with nokia, all of the different chatter. i still think intel is strong. dell's a unique situation. still look to microsoft, apple, plenty out there, ibm, hewlett-packa hewlett-packard. >> and tepid guidance they did give was based on broad economic global improvement they said has to happen in order to come through. a lot of the comments they made were not very encouraging for the bulls. i still liked you saw the goldman upgrade, i believe on thursday and friday, i think it's still an interesting play here, but these comments are not helping. >> yeah, they also talked about

demand stabilization. i want to go back to the pc side of things, slumping, a lot of data. that's very encouraging and it hope we get really reads from intel, they're the ones that care about this probably second only to dell and hp and some of the guys in that business. i think that's actually somewhat encouraging and i look to that. i think nokia's side, by the way, we look to their earnings in two days and i think they're going to tell us they are significantly in that new line they have out there in china. and i think that's going to be very bullish for the other players. >> time to take your position. the largest chip maker tomorrow after the bell, listen for the company to indicate signs of stabilization, what does this dell news mean for intel? joining us with his take for what to expect tomorrow, craig berger. great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> do these comments from dell make you more bearish on what intel might say tomorrow? >> i think they're going to have a pretty good report tomorrow. one of the reasons i've been fairly constructive on chips because they've been performing

much worse than their end markets. intel's been shipping worse than what dell and hp have been shipping. so that disconnect has been closing, which is one of the reasons that ships are okay. global inventories out there remain very, very lean right now. that could help the chip guys in the second half of the year. hitting dell, you've got the mix down to lower price notebooks and netbooks, which is hitting the vendors really regard right now. intel is probably seeing that. and enterprise is dead in 2009. >> one of the highlights of the first quarter was gross margins. some of the things you mentioned about inventories, what are you looking on a gross margin front? that's a big number for intel. >> the most important number probably, if they can do 50% or better, i think that's going to be viewed favorably, less, it's going to be viewed as a disappointment. >> you're expecting 50.9? >> yeah. >> you made this point, isn't this a place where they start to beat away at their own backyard.

it's certainly the cannibalization of the earnings you talked about in your note this. is what should be concerning you. if this is what people are excited about in intel, it's the adam chip, the netbooks. >> i think most of people are getting it wrong with respect to intel on that point. and i think it's a big concern over the next three to four years. in the near term, i think things will be pretty good and as goes intel's growth margin so will go to the stock in the near term. i think what we're seeing is it's good news for the marvels that sell into this supply chain and we did just hear today talking to my contacts in asia the first signs that europe consumer is starting to stabilize and potentially improve. >> right. just quickly, craig, before we let you go. often times intel will trade along with the bad news out of the tech sector and today it is dell. if we do see weakness, would you recommend investors use that weakness and buy? >> for short-term gains? yes, i think that's fine. i think intel's going to do pretty well. >> is there any other chip you like outside of the intel?

is there somebody you like more than intel right now? >> yeah, marvel, broadcom. fair child semi, i think they'll crush the third quarter guidance. >> great to have you with us. craig berger. also moving in tech land, up 4%, the real story though was in the pit. >> security technology is a big story going forward. everybody's being talking about it. we've seen this in the news lately a lot. the july calls about two weeks ago extremely active, that didn't seem to work out, paying 10, 15, 25 cents. stayed underneath $45. they were back again today positioning in august. maybe the timing was wrong, but if you look out there, there's the extreme volume, 9,000 contracts before noon, purchased out there, 75 to 80 cents, that's what they were paying for those options. they were expecting just what they were expecting before tharks didn't get it before, maybe they won't get it this time.

incredible amount of activity. >> we will continue our tech story later on in the show. more with the man, the analyst who sent people's shares saying the stock could add another $50 a share. moving on, take a look at our chart of the day. health care will be the least worst, in this environment least worst is actually good. >> not so much. >> it's the new good. >> the least worst sector, declining only 2%, compare that to financials, down 55%, energy, expected to be down 64%, materials, expected to be off a whopping 78%. least worst. >> well, but it doesn't -- built into the least worst is not the looming, you know, reform, which could be terribly dramatic. >> so even though -- it could be the worst because of the projected reform in the impact potentially on profits? >> we don't know. >> if you're looking for least worst, you want some sort of diversification, jobs are jobs and they've got theirs coming out. all of the diversification you're looking for, performance is incredible, they always seem to beat on their earnings,

revenues might be a little bit less, keep an eye on j & j, but the stock's been running into this number so -- >> love j & j, consumer products are 20% of their revenues, i'd like to that to be more of 33%, mixing up pretty evenly. abbott labs will also report this week, there's a company whose major drugs come off patent in 2017, pfizer's come off in the next year to year and a half. abbott is very fair, morgan stanley put a $65 price target, i believe, on these guys a while back. i don't think it's going that high, but this is easily a stock to get the 49 or 50. >> j & j is impressive, $5 billion acquisitions or less. they continue to stay with that, that billion dollars they spent a week ago for their alzheimer's drug, you've got to like the direction they're taking. they continue to perform. >> let's move on to the next trade here. today's top story, reminders that the credit crisis is actually far from over as lender cit group struggles to survive.

shrugging off the news today. should investors take the story more seriously? joining us on the fast line is top-ranked analyst from credit sweiss. >> great to be here. >> you don't believe the collapse of cit would mean systemic risk. >> well, i think cit is a large player in a couple of finance businesses. their customer base would see some pressure. but not in the way we typically think of. >> who can step in to make the loans to the small and mid-sized businesses if cit collapses? >> in terms of the general corporate finance, it could be any bank. there are some specialty businesses like trade finance where someone else would have to step in and take over that role. >> hey, it's tim, how much of this, though, is political, the fdic not stepping in, geithner making comments, we can do what we want when we want. we have the ability to do this now, we don't need special rules. this seems a little strange. obviously they threw these guys

t.a.r.p. money, in position to give them a hand, smes are very important to the story and politically i think it would be a significant thing not to bail them out. >> well, tim, i think it's even more so than that because there are a couple of players ge and deere capital that actually got tlpg guarantees in october without becoming bank holding companies. i think thought they were doing the right thing when they did that route. and had they applied for it and gone that way -- >> why are they stiff on it then? what's going on? the stiff on from the fdic, i should say? >> right, you know, a little unclear, you know, i'm not confidence there, but i would say that it does appear that the fdic has only made one exception during the course of 2009 and that was granting tlgp but hasn't made any others. >> if they were to go under, who really would be hurt by that? who has a lot of the credit from cit, it's probably not a great environment to go out and get another line of credit.

who really is vulnerable? >> if you're talking about the customer standpoint, they are the largest factor, the retail community would be hurt from that standpoint. obviously there would be bondholders and, you know, as tim had mentioned the government did give him 2.3 billion of t.a.r.p. money. >> and lastly, the trading opportunity if there is one here. tim geithner today was making comments about the ability to step back in and backs off cit if needed. is there an opportunity in that -- do you think the government would ultimately step in, and if so, could we then see a sharp rally on that news? >> well, you know, there is that possibility and it's really difficult to handicap precisely what the government's going to do. our concern is we outlined about three months ago, it's really difficult to understand how the common stockholders's going to make a lot of money because the earnings powers has been depleted and what they're going need to do assuming they get the chance will be to exchange both their preferred stocks and perhaps their debt into common stock, which would dilute the

ownership of the existing players, if there is a rally, you know, we've got -- we probably be sellers into it because i think ultimately the earnings power of the company could be under a lot of pressure then. >> all right. great to have you with us, thanks so much for your analysis. moshe there from credit suisse. even the richest man in the new york city is feeling the effects of the economy. michael bloomberg lost $10 million on his investments last year and is slumming it billionaire style by renting out his florida vacation home in addition to cutting spending on maids. >> poor mike bloomberg. >> 1/10 of 100%. >> that was the word on the street. here's what's coming up next on the show. >> how do you tread the rough waters ahead as the earnings

wave closes in on this market? "fast money's" earnings edge has your trade and strategies to stay afloat and ride the stocks swell. and shares of this company are about to go on a 10% run, and it's probably been staring you in the face all day. a top analyst reveals his market-moving call. plus break out the donuts and step into the box. our home run derby picks are set for liftoff wn america's post market show continues. where will you find e stability and resources? to keep u aheaof this rapidly evolving wor? the are tough questions. that's why brought together two of the st powerful nam in the industry. introducing morgan stanley smh barney. here to rethink wethanagement. here to answer... your questions. morg stanl smith barney. a newealth management firm with over 130 yearof ex.

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welcome back to "fast money," live at the markets. let's take a look at shares on csx. shares higher in the post market, 3% higher, the company reporting 72 versus 62 cents, estimate the revenues coming in light, but the important thing is the ceo says he does see signs of a bottom in the economy. >> yeah, and that's good news -- the stock we'd try to navigate for you, as well, and that was up. it takes profits, below 70 gets interesting, you saw it traded down 67 or so last week, now above 70, probably goes back to 75 off these csx numbers. burlington northern, a stock that's traded great technically, i think it'll continue to do so. >> and most concerned about the

coal volumes, which, you know, were significantly eroded in the first quarter and i think that's probably where people are looking towards the third quarter. coal prices are when they derive the biggest part of their profitability, and if they're telling you it's weak, not only for the coal players, the guys in the sector, where they were switching back and forth and probably not there either. >> so just as a corollary, if they were saying they see signs of a bottom in the economy, does that mean we see a rise tomorrow in coal prices? as the logic goes. >> well, people will probably play it like that. i still think you have to look out. this is not a one-day type of event. it's a trade. if you get that trade, take some off. the guy mentioned you look at burlington northern 70 to 75, you have to take the trade. markets are giving you trading environment, you have to use those trades unless you truly have that warren buffett five years and you can't stare at the market every day. >> there's nothing rosy about this -- >> absolutely. here's another story we're following for you after hours. it was reported before that

m mcgraw hill. business week may only fetch a nominal dollar, which would be less than an actual magazine. >> it goes along with them, i guess. >> right, because of the long, long record of debt obligations the company has. would you buy this? i canceled my subscription personally, no offense, businessweek, it was not timely anymore. it's not a timely -- >> they don't feature like a "fast money" recap in businessweek otherwise -- >> the interesting thing about mcgraw-hill, their bond rating business, which is under a little bit of pressure. >> right. textbooks may be looking good. >> under a little bit of pressure, as well. anyway, moving on. >> moving on here. time now for your earnings edge. today's surge by goldman led a financial-fuelled market rally, but will tomorrow's earnings report send goldman back to

earth. joining us on the fast line, institutional risk to break down one of the biggest names. chris, great to have you with us. you're expecting goldman to meet or beat expectations given the run-ups on the backs of other upgrades out there. what would you recommend people do with the stock? >> i think they're going to perform well for the balance of the year. if you had an opportunity to invest a fund that had access to the discount window, subsidies, and you had ben bernanke and tim geithner as your lobbyist in washington, would you want a piece of that? >> i guess the odds are in your favor if you're -- >> but this isn't the bank. people have got to forget bank when you're thinking about goldman, this is a brokered dealer with a private equity fund. i used to compete against the private equity fund. i would try to get hired to raise money for somebody and they would write a check. you've got to stop thinking about them as a bank. they're a trading organization. >> let's talk about that trading industry. they're going to crush this quarter, we know that. but in terms of going forward,

what's the street going to say? can they say they can continue on that course? or is this a one-quarter type of thing for them? >> no, i think as long as the markets remain stable, goldman is going to be harvesting the weed as it were. there's nobody to compete with them. it's them and jpmorgan, they are the last of the two standing. >> what are they doing with some of the higher margin businesses. do they have the same balance sheet at risk at the time people are supposed to be bringing down leverage, it af peers that value at risk, goldman may still be where they were not making investors that much more comfortable. any view on that? >> well, look, value at risk, i look at their bank which we rated a plus, about $160 billion in assets. and since last year, they've been reducing risk. they don't have to take risks now. they have enough fee opportunities and other fairly low-hanging fruit that they would be stupid to take risks. the downsides for goldman are two. one is political, if something

happens with aig or something else in washington, it turns the perception against them, that's a big negative. and then it's just the markets because goldman, again, they're not a bank, they don't have deposits that are significant at all, and if they come under any kind of funding stress, that is a big downside negative for the firm. >> is that way too high? or do you think that's actually accurate and pretty close? >> i never argue with meredith. she's always right. and i salute her for going out and making this her first call because it's obvious. i've been very negative on goldman, you can read my stuff. i've been critical of their political. i think they're going to make a lot of money and we have to serve our clients. >> great to have you with us, chris whalen, love to hate him, i guess. >> he's pretty cool. >> you love to hate chris? >> no, goldman, not chris. >> i was just kidding. >> you know what? it's just like betting, though. you don't use your heart, you use your brain and these guys

are crushing it right now, go with goldman. let's move on to hour next trade. for almost as long as "fast money's" been on the air, the chairwoman has been telling you to bet against commercial real estate, and now after 50% decline in the iyr over the louisiana year, karen has got an update on that trade. >> yes, i'm pretty much out of that trade, and our biggest position in the state is a company called clorus city, the owner of the very embattled ever changing atlantic yards company where the mets are going to play at some point allegedly in the future. >> -- basketball. very sloppy basketball, by the way. >> the thing that's interesting, a lot of these companies were able to raise equity as the markets rose in the second quarter. and so the near term risk of them absolutely falling off a cliff is no longer there. these guys for a city, for example, was able to raise equity at 6.60 a share. we cover the balance today at 4.80. that's it.

>> in your view armageddon's off the table but this is not called a signified bottom? >> it's not a bullish call, the risk reward has really changed and i can't justify being short at this price any more. >> time for rising star where we pick a small cap stock that may be poised to break out this year. this week tim tells us about an especially enriched play, play on words. >> indeed. we're back in the nuclear sector and not a lot of ways to play it in the united states, which is a good thing if you want to be an investor in usu, which is essentially the only american company in this space that is enriching nuclear uranium but also with the backing potentially of the u.s. government. your trigger here for this 550 million market cap which is ctively traded sideways for the last year on the ebb and flow of some feeling whether we get more demand into this space than through either stimulus or actually some direct government intervention is a loan from the u.s. government for $1.5 billion that will allow them to finish a project, which should create

5,000 to 6,000 new jobs keep nuclear power a big part of the front burner for senator obama. and i think a way you have to trade this stock. so watch for that because i think over the next six to eight weeks, we will get this announcement. this stock at these levels is trading very cheap. technically bounced off a 200 moving day and probably your only pure american play. >> another pure play to go in that same direction and i'm not -- >> hold on. >> floor, shaw, some of the names involved in the nuclear buildout, they're finally starting to get it and people are starting to get these contracts. i think that's another area you're seeing growth. that's why those stocks, they pulled back a little bit. >> that's great, and the key really is the government behind them. if the government steps in and guarantees loans because they believe it's good for business and good for the ecology, then that's what you want with usu. they sunk $1.5 billion already in this. >> usu could be an obama trade.

>> it could absolutely be an obama trade. >> you did that on purpose. >> maybe, maybe not. >> you did it on purpose. >> maybe. maybe. no comment. >> i forgot how upset that guy got. >> time now for the poll of the day. tonight's question, intel grinding higher this year heading into earnings tomorrow. are you a buyer before the report? a, yes, computer demand has bottomed as intel signalled in the past quarter. or b, no, control alt delete this trade. log on to fastmoney.cnbc.com. coming up, is the bottom finally in for our fast flasher stock? but it had a big rally today near a three-month low, give you the trade, reveal the stock ahea the earnings, stay tuned.

here's what we've got coming up for you in the second half of the program. navigating the mine field with the top tips from our pros. do not make your next trade until you hear what they've got to say. plus the analyst who says google's headed $50 higher, and the mlb home run derby is

tonight, and one stock swinging for the fences. he's looking at me like, what? before we get to all of that, time for a fast flash, shares of ge, general electric, the parent company of this network on the mend today, 6%, backing away from a three-month low. earnings out on friday. is this worth looking at, guys? >> i think ge is a $12 stock. i think their infrastructure business alone is worth $12. if you assume it's zero, i think $12 is the right price. it's worked out pretty well so far. >> it felt like ge got the financial side of their balance sheet bid today. and i'm not sure you have the same kind of love there as if guys they're going to have a lot of earnings power in the next year or so. i love it for the same reasons guy pointed out, but i think today's move was a little outsized and i don't think you get the same follow through tomorrow. >> let's move on here to an exchange. new futures trading operation, trying to give the cme group a run for its money when it opened

for business on friday, treasury futures contracts hit about 40,000, a 3% chunk of cme's business, i think that's today's number, correct? friday's number was about a 1.9% share of the cme business. but we've got the ceo to straighten this out for us. neil, great to have you with us. how has business been shaping up? >> well, we opened on friday and did about 20,000 contracts, so you're right on the market share. and today we had about a 40% increase. we went to about a 3% market share, it was really very good, very good opening, very satisfying. >> a lot of the analysts on the street, though are already saying you guys are a long shot. cme is so entrenched that there's no hope. what are your share targets? and by when? >> we haven't made any share targets. we opened up with one set of products because we wanted to focus on them. i think most of the analysts said we'd open up and sink like a stone. so right off the bat we beat the analysts.

i think we have good participation from our investors, our prices converged right off the bat. everybody was saying that we wouldn't do that, we'd have cheaper transaction fees, but we'd be more expensive because we'd have wider markets. our markets were no pun intended, but right on the money, and they got even better today. a lot of liquidity, a lot of depth to the market, and just real quality market. >> let me try to pin you a little more in on the market share question, a little bit different way. what do you need to get to to break even to have your business be viable? >> you know, our business is -- forgetting about what we need to make. we have a very low cost of operation. almost everything is outsourced except for me, some marketing people. it's a very low-cost operation. what we need to do to have a viable market is to not only have the investors in elx, the major banks and trading firms who bought into the exchange

trade on the system, we need to start bringing in the by side, the hedge funds coming in, the chicago fcms coming in. >> i want to break in and update our viewers on a headline. u.s. officials are in advance talks to aid cit, of course a story we've been watching, we'll keep you up to date as soon as we have some more headlines here. but you see the stock is moving higher in the after session. hope you'll come back and update us on your business in the future. >> i'd be delighted. >> neal wolkoff. we kick it off with a nice pop for dss, it was up 5%. >> this is name last week got a little bit of love. i like this name, i think there's still plenty of up side here, probably less exposure than people initially thought and that's what keeping it higher. >> ubs was up 6%, tim. >> this was a big deal. potentially assets frozen, and traders, people are holding assets with you, very concerned.

this is very good news for ubs. >> bank of america up 9%, thank you, meredith whitney. >> yes, thank you meredith whitney, that's why bank of america was up higher. >> all right. a drop here for dell, it was down 1.5%. >> aside from what they said, a tepid article over the weekend. i like dell here, it's been a widow maker for me, but i like dell. >> we've got a pop for bruno, the flick popping the box office this opening weekend bringing in $34 million in ticket sales. the universal studios film about a gay austrian fashion reporter. "transformers" held the top spot for the last few weeks. well, near the support level, nice big 4% move today, you've got to like the weaker dollar as far as caterpillar, 56% of their revenue coming from overseas. good pop. >> dropping like a stone down 45%, tim. >> a massive move of this large,

the provider of essentially infant formulas in china. the guidance was about 40% below expectations, but it did not warrant this move in the stock. >> are these the guys -- >> i have no idea if they're the melimine guys. >> nice, you pulled that off. >> all right. >> drop here for the cubs. bloomberg reporting that the story chicago major league baseball team could become the first team in the league in 39 years. filed for bankruptcy. the team's owner filed chapter 11 in december and now it may be -- excuse me, may have to do the same for the cubs. protect the team for any future liability related to the tribune bankruptcy. >> oh, the cubs again. >> poor cubs. coming up, navigating the market's choppiest waters. what the pros look at when placing their earnings season best. stay tuned. on tonight's trader radar, we look at the stock lighting up

screens across wall street today, founded in 1966 was a store called the sound of music in st. paul, minnesota, this company is now the largest electronics retailer in the world. >> their same store sales were down 14%. there's nothing in though numbers that really had you believe that these guys were in great shape. >> but traders found this to be a good buy after op timer said sales have boomed. who is it? the answer when "fast money" returns. welcome to the now network. pulation 49 million.

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♪ hotwire.com on the trader radar tonight. best buy, the largest electronics retailer was among the most active names today. welcome back to "fast money," i want to bring you up to date on a story we've been following in the after hours session. wall street yur"wall street jou reporting they are in advance talks to aid cit, on the brink of collapse right now. the "wall street journal" also reporting that that debt backing by the fdic is one possibility for cit, and you can see there in the after hours session, the stock had been surging. although it was down considerably during the market session. >> we don't know how they're going to do that, whether -- >> there's a lot. it appears, according to these headlines, that a couple of possibilities are on the table including an fdic backing of the debt. we don't know at the end of the

day what's going to happen. but people are taking this as good news that cit, perhaps, will not collapse. >> yeah, and i think as we talk about the bigger issues for the corporate sector, this is a credit event not a stock story and i think this is going to see a lot of spread tightening around that. >> markets surging on earnings enthusiasm today as well as the upgrade from meredith whitney. how do you navigate the rest of this mine field? take a look. >> the next 30 days are not for the faint of heart. volatility will explode, stocks will turn on a dime, and investors' entire years will be made or broken. ladies and gentlemen, it's earnings season. and this time, the stakes have never been higher. the next few weeks of profit reports will determine bull market from bs. facing the prospect of a second year of underperformance, hedge funds must make the right moves right now or risk getting shut down. plus with every single sec of

our economy expected to show a drop in profits, finding the right stocks that are shelters from the storm has never been more important. it's a time of the year that tests the resolve of the most seasoned traders. "fast money" gives you the pros play book for earnings. >> all right, let's go to the pros for that playbook. let's kick it off with pete here. >> i think you've got to be really aware and you talked about it already, it is a very volatile time, i think you've got to use that to your advantage right now, and i think in each and every case is ail bit different. but if that volatility stays and remains low on stocks you're liking and you want to hold for the long-term, buy some puts, buy that protection. if it's something that you're looking more from a trade like a goldman sachs, for instance, today where you had an explosive move on the front month and no move whatsoever in the month right after that, the august, then you can use that to your advantage too, the trading environment is phenomenal right now for the earnings season, but you've got to use the volatility to your advantage. >> give me an example of one play you put in place. >> today was the perfect example. i did this recently in research

in motion and again in goldman sachs, where you have the huge disparity and the august options don't move. that's the big key here. if those august, the further out options actually start to move and creep up higher, then that actually does not come into play. but if they stay down at the normal level, then it's easy to go back and check, you can get it at the normal levels and sell a july against it, you have yourself in great position to take advantage and you can sleep at night in front of those earnings. >> which is always nice. >> don't try to trade earnings releases, you're going to blow yourself up, instead try to trade the part patterns. a couple weeks ago they raised revenue guidance for the quarter. everybody piled in, we stood hon this desk and said no, no, no wait, get out, now is the time to pull the rip cord. it should trade back, the low the other day was 18.50. my point is don't trade the headline releases, you're never going to make money doing that. let the chart patterns work for you. it's worked in intel, jeffreys.

>> let's talk some home run derby here. major league baseball home run derby kicks off tonight in st. louis. >> who are you pulling for? >> you know my weakness. i don't know that. let's move on. as a tribute to all of that, all this week on "fast money," we're looking for the albert pujols of stock, swinging for the fences in the hope of big games. tonight pete is our lead-off batter to continue -- >> you think about things maybe are juiced up. ha-ha. well, you've got mcgwire sosa. everybody was loving the shippers and they had a great run. i was one of those, you try to trade in out of all of the rest of it. excel maritime's the name, dropped to $30 in two months, hit $5 by the end of the year, still around $5. you've got a chance for this thing to maybe start to work

into that whole shipping area. >> all right, we've got to get out of here. >> got to get out of here. >> got to get out of here. coming up next, the analyst behind the google call. stay tuned, we'll ve him

time to analyze this, google boosting the stocks, today, jeffreys analyst raising his estimates on google.

joining us tonight on the fast line, great to have you with us. how would you recommend investors set up ahead of earnings? >> well, we think it's going to be a pretty good quarter. we think it's going to be better. our theory is that q-2 can be no worse than q-1, traffic growth to the google site continues to be massive if april and may are any indications. and then you have a cfo who is very intent on lowering costs. so i think all in all, we'd go into the quarter owning the stock here. >> what do you see in terms of advertising? the outlook for advertising for the rest of the year? >> yeah, so it's interesting. what we're hearing from agencies, we continue to see soft ad budgets, but they continue to see fair amount of spending on what works. and search is definitely at the -- top priority for a lot of them. so all in all, we -- our estimates for search is mid to high single -- yeah, mid-single

digits display down. mid single digits, but that's still against traditional media, that's down 20% to 30%. >> always a pleasure to speak with you. youssef uali.

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>> transactions go with visa. >> thanks for watching, i'm melissa lee, see you back here 5:00 p.m. tomorrow for more "fast money." have a great night. 14 clubs. that's what they tells a legal golf bag can hold. and whe that leaves a little oom for balls and tees, it doesn't lee room for much else there's no room left for deadlines or conferenccalls. noa single pocket to hold the stress of the day, or the to-do list of torrow. e and drive it right down the middle of pure michigan. yo trip begins at michigan.org.