make it happen in the house this next few weeks. and in the congress by the end of this year to the president's desk for his signature. i'm pleased now to yield the floor to the very distinguished chairman of the ways and means committee, a key participant in the legislation that we are rolling out today, chairman charlie rangel. >> thank you, henry. madam speaker, i almost feel like i'm one of the luckiest people in the world to stand here so long to wait for a president that has made a personal political commitment to provide health care for all of america to go through so many speakers and have such a dynamic speaker to be working with to bring all these indian chiefs together and to read from one page for america, to let people know that those 50 million people that detainee have insurance are getting health

care but to remind america that they're paying for it. the doctors are charging for it, the hospitals are charging for it, the health insurance people are charging for it, the rates are just soaring. there's not anybody in america that's an adult that doesn't have some horror story about somebody that lost their lives, lost their home, lost their jobs, lost their insurance and just to think that these people will be able to walk anyplace with their families knowing they are insured to have the self-esteem to know that such a large part of their disposable income will not have to be for insurance, that america and our government will be there to effectively compete to have people be able to make decisions based on what's good for them and their families and to know we're going to provide the providers there so that people can now look into the future and know that if they really just don't want to make a buck, but want to do what doctors are supposed to do, to serve people

and to cure people and to prevent illness, how lucky we are to be in a congress with such leadership and to have a president that's going to give us an opportunity that if we do nothing else, we can say we were part of the team that brought universal health to the people of the united states of america. i want to really thank pete stark, as old as he is, he spent so much of his time working on this subject matter. i want to thank -- but chairman miller's been a dynamic person to work with. this whole team. and we have promised the president and we promised the american people that we've been challenged and we will produce. and thank you for giving us an opportunity. george miller, dynamic chairman of education and labor. >> thank you very much, mr. chairman. this is a very. >> and we're listening to house democratic leaders introduce health care legislation.

the president has been adamant as far as pushing through this legislation by the august recess in congress. we will take you back to washington as news develops there. of course, we know that they are efforting a bill asap as you just heard from charles rangel. wall street here and the activity, we're basically back at the highs of the afternoon, not a major move, obviously. about 20 points higher on the dow jones industrial average, holding above 8300 at 350 on the blue chip average. we are in a show me market where we are waiting on a number of earnings coming out after the bell and into the next two weeks. goldman sachs reporting earnings as expected better than the consensus estimates. nasdaq getting a bid by about 6 points today. money moving into technology and the s&p 500 fractionally moved today with a gain on the session of 3.5 points.. oil once again a factor in this market under $60 a barrel. joining me bob fa sanny, with me. bob, what strikes you what you just heard in washington or

about what investors are focusing on today? >> how amazingly fast they are moving this health care legislation through. they're paying for it partly by raising taxes on people making over $350,000 a year and don't kid yourself, maria, it could go up 2 to 3%, instead of 1% for 350 to 500 it could go up to 2 to 3%. that's one of many potential tax increases wealthier people are facing down the road. >> the debate, bob, is all of these tax increases will be taking effect in 2010 when those bush tax cuts expire and when we are expected to actually see some kind of an economic recovery. it sort of stalls things right off the bat. >> right now 35% highest tax. that's going to go up quite quickly. let's call it mixed messages. that's part of the problem we're having. earnings are coming in. some are beating, some aren't. there's issues here. cost cutting a really important issue for most of these

companies. they're not usually getting them by sales increases. sales and volumes have only slowly improved. csx is a great example.e. they beat on the top line but cost cutting was a big issue and the bottom line is their volumes were down 21%. why is the stock up here? because the company said they think volumes will be down but will be better than the second quarter.r. all the railroads are to the up side. we saw retail sales up 3%, tougher sales comps. everybody is saying don't worry, we had reeblt checks last year so the comparisons are tougher this year. but the bottom line is, inventories are low and still not able to increase the sales that much. most traders agreed back to school is going to be very lean right now. how about the stimulus package? >> we heard today from martin marietta. makers of stone and cement for commercial construction.

they dramatically lowered their earning guidance. state revenues much weaker than expected. nobody is ordering concrete or aggregates on the state level and they were expecting stimulus money to start coming in by now. the good news is they do believe 2010 will be stronger because the stimulus money will start arriving. the big xoter vulcan materials. our whole team covering the markets. let's start with bertha coombs over at the nasdaq. >> thanks very much. really what's dragging the nasdaq is dell. it is off 8%, including the lows of the day, dell saying margins are pressured and it sees sales stabilizing but basically the enterprise psych is still delayed that part of its analyst day not having a good day. intel having a good day ahead of earnings after the close. expecting to see it earn 8 cents and it's gotten teed up novellus.

despite bringing in a wider loss for the second quarter is forecasting better results for its third quarter and it says that its orders have jumped. we'll wait to see if intel confirms whether it's ordering more. we've also been looking at the gamers take 2 warning it's going to delay new bioshock 2. that's going to impact its next two quarter results. retailers to the upside with blue nile, one of the winners being up over at citi to a buy from hold. rebecca is at the nymex with the low down on the web. >> low is the terminology you want to use here in terms of oil. finishing out the day below 60 bucks a barrel. in fact, that bullishness gave way to bearishness. the early gains in oil we saw today according to a number of traders here on the floor was a short covering rally, but the bearishness gave way overall. the demand in traders' minds isn't there to eat into supply. of course, supplies are important to this market. we'll get the department of

energy supply report tomorrow. it the api numbers come out today. later on 4:30 p.m. eastern time. one of the important numbers in that report is going to be the gasoline number. because this is the time of year when we use the most gasoline summer driving time. five straight weeks of supply build in gasoline. that spells out bearishness. we've seen the prices alt the pump coming down. we'll see if that can continue.. one area of note in this complex is the metals portion of the complex were up on today's tradinging session. copper jumping to a one-week high today, maria. a lot of the question on copper is what's going on in china. there's a sense perhaps they have demand and that they will continue to have demand for the metal weapon get a better since with their you gdp number. >> rebecca jarvis, the earnings coming out of the financial services sector. goldman sachs boasting stronger quarterly results today even

though the numbers came in slightly better than lowered expectations. mary thompson with the highlights of today's result and how that stock is doing here. >> record revenue and stronger than expected profits from the banks in the second quarter. profits of 458 a share as revenues soared $13.76 billion fueled by record revenue in goldman's fixed income commodities, as well as equity underwriting benefiting from the post stress test test but dashed by banks to raise capital last quarter, a trend goldman's cfe sees spilling over into other industries. >> there are still a lot of corporations around the world that need to rebuild their balance sheet. if markets say okay and stay receptive, i think there will be a lot of equity offerings. >> he noted that the world remains a difficult place making the $172 billion in liquidity goldman's amassed for regulatory

and risk management necessary even though he said it is a drag on the company's returns. a drag that was slight one on goldman's second quarter returns remained commercial real estate. while its investment banking declined from last quarter, he says there is reason to be optimistic that m & a activity will pick up. >> if the markets say stable, you will start to see a big uptick in activity but you won't see an uptick in revenues for an number of quarters. >> the second quarter number grabbing much of the attention today. the $6.6 billion the company put aside for compensation and benefits at 49% of revenue, et cetera standard for wall street firms. when asked how he would respond to criticism about that sum, vinnyer replied criticism on compensation would be misguided. we can't help it. if the markets crumble in the second half of the year, any compensation will reflect that. >> mary thompson at the earnings central nerve center. >> we'll be talking to sam

stovall at standard & poors, jim paulson over at wells capital management. sam, we're starting earning season. you're the master here. what strikes me as interesting is earnings estimates on the aggregate have been coming down from april. what's going on here? >> well, you're right because looking at whether it's the end of april, end of may, end of june for second quarter results, we've been going from minus 15 to minus 17%. a lot of that has to do with consumer discretionary. we were expecting a decline if you included general motors. since we took them out in june, you're looking at a year over year increase because it's no longer the drag it was. >> there's a little bit of the distortion because of the effect of general motors. >> we don't go back and restate numbers. general motors was in the index a year ago and not now. >> it's about investing in an environment where we know that earnings have been under pressure. a lot of debate whether or not

we are out of the recession. why don't you take this one here and tell me how do you want to invest in an environment where we are looking at earnings down but perhaps out of the woods. is that a fair statement? >> i think so. the thing i look at on the earnings front i believe is that we -- corporations for the last year to 18 months have been preparing for the second coming of the great depression.. they've been practicing things like purging payrolls, purging inventories. which means now we've got our business community in probably one of the greatest profit leverage situations we've been in in a long time. if there's any incremental dollar revenues it's going to fall to the bottom line. i think with that type of operating leverage, i'd stay more on the cyclical side, the industrials, materials, technology. >> benefiting from an economic revirvel. >> why sit on a staples stock when there's that type of profit level out there. >> talking about the impact from foreign economies, you look ed t

the s&p 500 and tried to come up with a number how many companies are going to get impacted from other markets. >> howard silverblat went through all the annual reports and basically crunched the numbers and found about 48% of the revenues for companies in the 500 come from overseas operations up from 46% to one year ago. those sectors that have above average exposure are information technology at about 55%, looking at energy at about 50% and you also have materials and health care that also have above average exposure. so today, johnson & johnson posted results that were better than expected but hit 12% from foreign exchange. i think a lot of these multinationals might be saying the same story. >> jim, how certain are you that we're actually going to get incremental increases in the bottom line?? we've been hearing about it. the retailers haven't seen it yet. now a lot of the bulls and retailers saying you want to own retail in the second half. >> i hear you, bob.

i don't think a lot this quarter. we're talking about revenues yet. but we are talking about margins and better results as a result of that. what i found with saerngs that when you get the gdp estimates at the start of the quarter revised upward as the quarter goes on, you generally get better than expected earning season. we've had that. just last week, we had a trade number which caused people to revise upward results for the second quarter gdp. that tells me there's good odds this earnings season is going to be better than expected. where the top line starts to come in is i think the third and fourth quarter.r. that's where tech and others leveraged to that could benefit. >> thanks very much. we so appreciate it. we'll see you soon. we thank you very much. 45 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. dow industrials up 20 points. quiet on the volume side but certainly the tech stocks continue to show real momentum even a small move today, that's

a victory. >> energy stocks showing momentum. the volume has been on the weak side really since may, kind of a disappointment. just ahead, what the head of the american bankers thinks about the cost of protecting consumers. >> and then we're talking with the billionaire investor stops by. he will be my special guest to break down why he's bullish on shares of wendies. >> is an economic recovery just around the corner? we'll have john mccain's former economic advisor about that one. >> the most heavily traded stocks at the, once again, financials dominate, b much a, general electric among the most heavily traded. you have questions. who can give you the financial advice you need?

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♪ hotwire.com welcome back. good to see you. take a look at today's business headlineses. businesses cut inventories more than expects since may. they fell by a full percent, higher than the .8 that economists were forecasting.

total business sales slipped by a tenth of a percent despite gains from wholesalers and retailers. ac announcing it will pay a quarterly dividend. the government is going to get $271 million from that dividend. gmac has received $12.5 billion in government fund since december and was one of the companies that mailed the government -- the treasury's stress test. the latest survey shows optimism from small businesses fell to a reading of 87.9 following two months of modest improvement and comes mostly because of concerns over lower sales and profits. only 7% of the companies surveyed say they expect the economy to improve. that's down 5% from may. >> the debate over the creation of a consumer financial protection agency heats up. today the senate banking committee heard testimony on the impact of such a regulatory body on both financial institutions and the consumers it would protect. our next guest offers the view

of the banking industry to the committee. he joins us in in this exclusive to tell us how it all went down. ed yingling is president of the american bankers association. welcome. >> thank you. >> give us a sense what went on today in your testimony. >> i think there is broad agreement in the congress and in the industry that we had some real regulatory farrells. the prime example is with subprime lending.. question is what to do about it. the administration put together a very vast proposal, and i think today it ran into some skepticism from some of the senators particularly over parts of it that would say the government is going to design financial products and then mandate that banks and others offer those products. that ran into i think a good deal of skepticism and it should. >> well, why does the industry have a problem with this new consumer protection agency?

there have been a number of executives that have come on the program who say it's another layer of bureaucracy. what, from your standpoint, is the problem with this new agency? >> well, there's several problems with it, and that's not, again, to say that we don't need changes.s. we do. but one is, it would subject banks, think of your local community bank to really conflicting regulations so you have one examiner the safety and soundness examiner that comes in and says one thing, the consumer examiner comes in the next day and says exactly the opposite. for example, think of check holds, a very simple concept. consumers would like the least possible delay in getting credit for their checks. they'd like it right away in, some cases one or two days. that has to be balanced against the design of the check clearing process and also against the real threat of fraud. we lose billions a year in fraud and that cost gets passed on to consumers. one regulator would tell us one

thing, another another thing. that's the biggest concern. >> i see. what about the concern that consumers are getting feed to death with respect to their credit cards? who is going to protect them on that front? >> there's a huge new law that was just enacted on that, and also the regulators have plenty of authority to deal with that type of thing. in fact, the federal reserve had just put forth a very strong regulation, but one of our big concerns is that most of the problems occurred outside the banking industry, the treasury testified today that 94% of the subprime lending problem occurred outside the banking industry. this program in theory addresses that, but our concern is there will be no fund for that part of it that's supposed to go after the nonbanks that have caused most of this problem. >> i see. so you're talking about higher regulation in one part of the market but those so-called

nonbanks even like insurance companies are actually not falling under the same regulatory umbrella. >> well, they're not, but the bigger concern to us, frankly, is a lot of mortgage brokers and others that are involved at the state level. this new legislation is supposed to apply to anybody that offers financial services. they can write the regulations to apply to them, but the question is, are they going to examine it, those institutions. are they going to enforce these new rules against those institutions the same way they do against banks, and our concern is while they say they will, there doesn't seem to be any fund mechanism to accomplish that. >> is there any way to measure what this would do in terms of expenses for the banking sector if such an agency is created, what type of cost would it place on these institutions? >> that's subject to debate and part of the problem again is, there's no bucket for this institution this new regulatory agency. we have no idea how big it's going to be. i was pleased there was some

discussion today that there should not be an increase in the fees on banks. but i don't see how this entity gets funded if there isn't some increase. and so the budget issue is a huge one here that is completely unresolved. if it's not big enough it, can't do sits job. if it is big, it's going to end up with lots of fees on financial providers and those fees ultimately, economics tells us, get passed on to consumers. >> so how did you walk away from the hearing then? you know, house financial services committee chairman barney frank has said he's moving on the legislation to create this agency and he wants it up and running by august. do you think that's viable? >> well, he said he wants to get a bill out of committee by august. he's a very good legislator so i wouldn't bet against him. i think the bill probably has a better chance in the house than in the senate. again, i think there's broad support for doing something and something is likely to be done. this is also part of that big

huge packaging that includes a systemic risk regulator, how to resolve tool big to fail institutions and so, it could get tied up i think particularly in the senate because of its sheer weight.. we had urged the administration frankly to have a narrower bill that focused on the key issues about they put up a very, very broad program and we'll just have to see if the senate can handle it this fall. >> you make all important points, mr. yingling. we thank you. >> thank you. >> we'll see you soon. we've got 35 more minutes before the closing bell sounds with the market holding on to fractional moves. the dow industrials. >> 40 points on the downside is where we are in the dow. up next, charlie gasparino will have more what's happening at goldman and the terrific earnings today. >> the bond market where interest rates are right now, take a look. we're back in a moment. access to favorite courses chef's meal with pommes frites

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folks, the closing bell realtime flash. i want to show you something cool, oshkosh is the stock. it is the hottest stock this month in the russell 1,000. why in the heck is northwest toe talking about it today? the reen is because it's at a one-year high. actually about a 55-week high, if you will.

but it got on to my radar there. look at that six-month tally, up 114%. the reality is it's up 63% so far this month. the company at the end of june was awarded a billion dollar contract for what's known as an mrap atv, a mine resistant ambush protected atv. a little four-wheel vehicle. they're going to build a bunch of them for the government. back to you. >> thanks very much. goldman sachs beat expectations this morning ace commercial bank with access to the federal reserve discount window. our editor charlie gasparino asks the questions with the risks they continue to take, should it continue to be a commercial bank. that's a good question. why can't they go back to being an investment bank. they became commercial just to get access to the federal reserve and the cash flow there. >> to save themselves. that's why they became a commercial bank because it was after lehman, it was after merrill was sold because it had

to be sold, it was toast, as well. it was months after bear had to run on bear. goldman sachs i think morgan would have went first those weeks in september and november. but then goldman sachs would have went. that's when the federal reserve made them a bank and they got the full access to the discount window and all the stuff that the fed gives you, and they do this, you got to ask yourself, why does the fed open up the discount window? generally they want to protect average people that put money with these banks just in case they run into some trouble that these banks, commercial banks, this is a protection for the little guy, can go out and these banks can borrow from the discount window. goldman sachs does not have any customer deposits. it's a plain old bank. it's one thing to save them, but they're saved now. the real question is, how long do they stay as a commercial bank. you got to think they're going to come under pressure. i think that pressure to give up that charter, at least the

federal government's going to come under pressure to get them out of that charter that, pressure i think, bob, will come next week i think. here's why. over the next couple days, you're going to see earnings reports come out. in those earnings reports, i believe it's what morgan stanley tomorrow, jpmorgan at end of the week. there's going to be others. citigroup is coming up. in these reports you'll see their bar ratings, a value of risk.. it measures risk. what you're going to see is that here's goldman sachs, an alled commercial bank, with bar up here and here's everybody down here. and that is going to be when people are going to say, this is a joke. if you want to be a hedge fund, be a hedge fund. i will say this bob. they didn't just knock it out of park. they had record revenues this quarter. $13 billion of revenues. i believe $10 billion of that was through risk taking.. that's amazing. >> here's the question. it's not what goldman wants them to be. what will the government allow

them to be? will they allow them to go back and be an investment bank? >> goldman wants to be a bank. why would they not want to be a bank? >> they should. >> well, you know, any rational person would like to be a bank because you get presented and lower cost of capital. if you have that fed fund pot in the case of an emergency, you know, overall your cost of fund is lower. why would goldman say hey, we're going to make our life more difficult. this has to come through the obama administration. why aren't they pressuring the fed to get them out of this classification? >> ial say this, goldman sachs was one of the biggest contributors to the obama administration, just to feed the conspiracy theorists out there like myself. >> fun as usual. thanks very much. >> we've got 30 minutes before the closing bell sounds. we're in the final stretch. the market is trading higher. dow industrials up 20 points. >> up next the "fast money" final call. find out if the big names are worth buying into right now. thee companies in the world

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welcome back. we have about 25 minutes before the closing bell sounds. very much a mixed situation on wall street today. technology definitely getting a bid with the likes of google up half a percent, amazon also higher as is ebay, a number of other names on the upside.. dow industrials, it is being driven by the oils, exxon and chevron, both dow components both higher today. even though oil is still below $60 a barrel, do you have some strength in the likes of boeing and ge, all though the banks are largely lower. technology is minimumed. you definitely do have some strengths in a number of internet names, nasdaq higher today by 3 points at 1796. the s&p 500 is seeing a bit of a limitation here because of jpmorgan, goldman sachs, bank of america, morgan stanley, et cetera throughout the sector.r. under pressure today. american express down, as well. although the s&p 500 is higher by three points due to strength in the oils. >> retailers a little bit better.

time for the final call right now. goldman sachs may have led the day with earnings but it's intel that is the attention of wall street right now.w. the option market is signaling, joining us the chief derivative strategist with think or swim. what are we talking about in terms of options? which side are they betting on here? >> it seems they're betting on the upside here. what we've seen most of the day is the 16 and 17 calls in july. we've seen a lot of buyers. we have the expiration in july on friday. you're definitely making a short-term bet on what's going to happen after the close today on those earnings numbers definitely being positive. they're not expensive in terms of pure money options. so a lot of people are coming in for that, shall we say cheaper shot. they do think intel is going to be a stock to the upside. >> what are they betting on? i'm getting mixed signals from the tech traders i talk to. some think the revenue numbers, i think $7.5 billion might be a little higher. where's the upside catalyst

here. >> from the statement that follows.s. one of the interesting things related to what happened with goldman, their statement that followed was actually bullish for everything that follows behind them when they say the market is working as it should be. i think this is kind of our great hope, shall we say in the terms are people going to spend a little bit more money on not only individuals, businesses its? i think that's what the bet is on right now is that the statement that follows is not going to be as negative as we've heard in the past. >> you know, this is one of the last areas where there is actually some analysts dwael have a little bit of an advantage, they have channel checks. guys go out and do real work. they caught factors in taiwan. the guys i've been talking to said the action out of taiwan is not that great right now. i'm surprised you're getting so much action on the plus side on the call side. >> and again, part of it, you know, an interesting air lel between this and goldman sachs, part of it is a little bit that these are inexpensive in terms of pure cash options. what's interesting is they're

betting on the number today. you're not seeing the follow through in the back months, august and september options. if you look at goldman sachs, a lot of people obviously bet on the good number in july. you're seeing strong buying there in the back months also. so people are voting with the fact that they think intel could have a pop but think goldman no longer term -- the longer erm good play. we're seeing that more and more in the financials as compared to the techs. tech buying is a lot more short term whereas the financial buying we're seeing in august and september also which tells me people have more of a belief perhaps the financials will more perform in the short term. >> j.j.kinahan. coming up on "fast money," you can't miss it. intel the first of the tech bellwethers reports. and the nfl is coming to your iphone. "fast money" has the ways to trade it live at 5:00. >> 20 minutes before the closing bell. nasdaq moving.

on the upside, oil under $60 a day. >> up next the strategy behind the success of a billionaire who's been investing for three decades. we're going to nauk to any son peltz and why he's setting his sites on wendy's stock right now.

welcome back.. while consumers trade down during a recession, fast food companies can be big winners. my next guest knows a thing or two about that with a major investment in the food sector. his biggest stake in wendy's arby's group. nelson peltz. nice to have you on the program. >> you too. >> let's talk about this trend. you've got, when you look at arby's wendies, the heinz brands is, this an overall theme that you believe consumers are congregating in the lower end in terms of fast food? >> first of all, i think in fast food, it's clearly a very safe place to be today. and wendy's uniquely positioned of the major players in fast food to accelerate its growth.

we just took over wendy's end of september last year. here's a big company, number two or three in the united states, that has virtually no international business. we've just signed agreements in the middle east and asia. absolutely.. we have no breakfast. breakfast is about 1% of our sales. you'll see it coming in next year. it's still got the second highest average unit volumes of all the fast food companies.. second only to mcdonald's. the other guys do 20 to 25% of their sales in breb fast and we do nothing in breakfast to speak of. >> a lot of people talk about owning companies right now that have strong balance sheets, cash is king. you want that wiggle room in an environment where there's so much uncertainty out there. give us your secret sauce, if you will. what do you look for when taking these big stakes in companies like wendy's. >> first of all, on our coffee mugs we have two sayings. on one side it says cash is king

on the other it says the sales up, expenses down. my father gave me his secret formula for success in business about 40 years ago when i was 7 or and he told me get sales up and expenses down. we've applied that to all the businesses we're involved in over the years. and instead of trying to figure out how much leverage you can put on a company, which was clearly very much in vogue over the last eight or ten years, we've always worked the income statement. we've been income at the same timecentric. that's where all the free money is. >> when all of those financials largely did that capital raise a couple of months ago, there was such a reception because people said who are going to be the survivors. >> and the companies in our portfolio today have very strong balance sheets, heinz or kraft and cadbury and wendy's.s. we just did a bond in wendy's

last week just to put more cash on the balance sheet just because of what the market we the credit markets were in such disarray this year, continue to be so. where we see great opportunity also in credit markets. >> where do you think we are in this cycle in terms of the credit market in terms of the financial system? a lot of people wonder if we've seen the worst or if the worst is to come because of the uncertainty over commercial real estate. >> i think leaving real estate out for a minute, i think we've seen the worst. we're not out of the woods yet but i think we're directionally correct. and i think that look, we need housing to come back. we need unemployment at some point in time to get resolved. and we need the administration to tell us that they still believe in capitalism. that they've got to get out of business and get out of corporate america as soon as possible. >> do you see an exit strategy? nelson, we're waiting to hear that from the administration. yet, the top income earners are

going to pay for health care reform, the top income earners are going to pay for infrastructure and everything g else. we're looking at higher tax at a time when the economy is supposed to turn. >> they can only tax us 100%. that's the end. that's the end of it. even if they do, there will not be enough. so we can't have another stimulus two. we can't have that. we've got to change the way we do things. now to raise taxes i think is a very fool hardy thing. you don't bring a country out of recession by raising certainly taxes. >> what do you do? you want to help the business sector in terms of. >> you've got to. what's happening with cit today? i don't know if the government is going to bail them out or not. >> this is going to be impactful to small and mid cap companies still having trouble accessing credit. >> ibm is not borrowing from cit. the government is trying to help small business. that's where cit lives and

breathes. >> you think the government should aid them? >> i think they're going to have to. if not, we're going to have a real problem. >> how does the market react to the government aiding cit? >> the government is half pregnant now. then they've got to show us an exit strategy and get out. >> speaking about financial services for a minute here, a lot of people said, we've got to get the toxic assets off the banks, no, we've got to get the housing market stabilized in order for the economy to stabilize. do you think that financial services part of the business has been fix, part of the economy has been fixed? where are we in that specific slowdown? >> you've got a trillion, pardon me, of maturities coming due between now and 2015. a trillion. >> trillion. >> now people saying the banks are back, but where most of these loans that were a trillion six of loans issued from 2007

three years earlier. a trillion six, a trillion maturities coming due over the next several years. those will lay in the hands of clos, in the hands of securitirization. that market isn't back yet. the government hasn't shown us we have a securitization market back. we know the clos are back in business. where is that going to come? that's where there are great opportunities today in credit. >> so are you a buyer of ial services today? i know you own legg mason, some legg mason. there's a debate whether or not you increased your stake or not. we can put that aside for a minute. >> let's put that aside. what we are a buying today is of credit. a buyer of senior securitied bank debt, of high yield loans. we've got a group we joined forces with, dean calor and j. bloom, guys out of drexel joins us at trian and together we're able to do great things in credit whether it's distressed

or, we're able to put a relationship together where we can understand the credit markets and evaluate companies which we do very well. >> what do you think the result of all of this will be? some people feel like we're seeing a completely changed mentality on the part of the investor today, risk averse, not necessarily going to be back in these markets soon. what do you think? what will be the result of all that we have seen in the last 24 months? >> i think the investors are going to come back. there's so much cash building up on the sidelines. we keep hearing that. i think there's going to be a lot of equity issued because i don't think that trillion in maturities is all going to be turned over into new debts. some of it's going to turn into equity. you're going to see a lot of that. i think the investors will come back, as i said before, when the administration tells us they're getting out of business. and that they still believe in capitalism. if what we've come through, maria, is a depression, i don't

believe it has, but a few months ago, people were talking like it was, if you have a depression every 80 years, it's not the worst thing in the world. 80 years between drinks is not so terrible. and i don't think you can throw the baby out with the bath water as a result of that. >> we didn't mention tiffany. that doesn't seem to be in your bailiwick of fast food and the lower end. how is tiffany doing these days? >> look, it's not in the right place today but it's a great brand. it defines luxury. it's got a very strong balance sheet. its competition has really dissipated. all the local jewelers have gone out of business. fortune nof has gone out of business and that blue box has tremendous meaning as a gift. >> to me. what do you avoid in this market, nelson? what are you not going to touch. >> i never touch autos, auto suppliers and i never touch airlines. all as. >> and why is that, union?

>> because i've watched it over my whole career and i've never seen good things come out of those industries. >> nelson, we so appreciate your time today. >> thanks for having me. >> nelson peltz, trian partners. dow industrials up 16. up next, matt nesto taking a look at the pros and cons of svengala. the world'scer) leading companies

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welcome back, everybody. the strength of the dollar great for a lot of things but not if you're a multinational firm. matt nesto has more and i'll bet you're talking about johnson & johnson. >> that's what's got on me on this path. you saw those results out today. the company did beat estimates even though the profit was down. but when you look into the press release and start reading into it, j & j reporting international celts got hit 12% on a four x. i start looking more closely at the dollar index. if you look at where the dollar index was from the beginning of

the first quarter from april of '0 to today, you're going to see just about a 12% gain. that's just to where we are today given the giveback we started to see in the latter half of the second quarter. rufly if you average it out, it was about 73 the dollar index for the second quarter of '08. it has been averaging about 83 to 80 for the most of the second quarter here. it is about a 12% total move. if you take a look what's going on out there, sam stoevl has been speaking with patty in our stocks column, he sees a couple of head winds, one of which he pointed out was that 12% move in the strong dollar. he points out a 2% year on year contraction and gdp doesn't help. that will be somewhat tempered by tail winds, at least one of them he sees which is the drop in oil being well, almost half what it was a year ago. if you take a look at the morgan stanley multinational index and look at it by industry group,

the health care pharma stocks big ex-posh in that index. food, beverage and tobacco very big. energy is the big player as well as some of the discretionary names. the megacap multinationalities, movement, p & g, ibm, coca-cola, ge, and intel all of them are in there. so waf the dollar. it ebbs and flows. right now it's flowinging. >> thanks very much. and we're going to get back to the earnings desk where moments away from intel's latest reports. jim goldman has that preview. jim? >> good evening to you. indeed, intel is quite a tech industry bellwether. the street looking for eight cents a share on $7.3 billion. that 45% gross margin that intel is expected to report also very important. the street was disappointed last quarter when the company failed to offer any meaningful

guidance. so if intel can look forward into the third quarter or indeed into the rest of 2009, that will be a positive indeed. assume the company can capitalize on the big momentum we're seeing in net books, microprocessor a big driver of that trend. is that success sacrificing margins in the process. shares up better than 30% since march, still well off their 52-week high. any sense of good news could send those shares north and those numbers coming around ten after the hour. >> bob, i'm not sure if you saw the reported from merrill lynch. they say the recession is over and while the global recovery is going to be slow, the inflection point has been passed and that should encourage investors to cut cash levels and put it into the market.. we'll talk more about that in the 4:00 show. >> several merrill's comren taters have been rather bearish in the past. coming right back with the closing count down. >> stay with us.