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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 15, 2009 12:00am-1:00am EDT

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from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, this is "fast money." america's post-market show. baseball has its all-star game tonight. we're trading all-stars every night the week. the liquiditior, joe terranova, and last but not least, tim seymour, the ambassador. they hit it out of the park every single night of the week. it is yet another winner. let's get to the word on the street. the headline is better than expected. the eps, gross margin was better than expected. the outlook was good. and that was sending the stock higher in the after session. and we're also seeing the nasdaq futures move higher, as well. >> a little more enthusiasm with that. third quarter guidance, $8.5
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billion, double-digit growth. this is a bellwether. intel is moving higher, this will take the rest of the market higher, and it probably sets us up nicely, as you rolled forward next week, you now have a foundation, 870s the s&p, that was the low. >> third quarter guidance for these guys is rare. 10% of the time of the last 31 quarters they've reported they've given good third quarter guidance or any good guidance at all. we talked about the gross margins, they blew that out, the revenues number and most importantly, these guys are looking to the future, this is going to the entire space excited. >> hate to throw an uncle charlie on it. >> don't do it. >> do it. >> exactly. a bender. >> go back to april 15th. these guys reported april 14th, the next day the stock went down on 152 million shares. that was the day as it turns out to buy intel. john najarian was in the seat that night, said the exact same thing. now great quarter. look for a huge volume day.
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i'm thinking if you're long intel, which i am by the way, you take profits tomorrow. >> intel, by the way, is you take charts $18.16. >> absolutely. they crushed. it's a fantastic quarter, but intel on a valuation basis frankly is not that cheap. that's a tad expensive. pete might disagree. >> the only reason i disagree is because i think their earnings will be far greater. we've had a couple estimates over a dollar, and now you break down intel, and you say, you know what? this looks awfully cheap. you take a look at the balance sheet, this stock is doing everything great. knocked the cover off the ball, this is prince fielder right now. they did everything right, $8 billion quarter, incredible 18 cents versus 8. it's agree for i.t., this is what we needed. we need to fold up with goldman sachs. it was the man as far as the financials, these guys are truly the man as far as the tech.
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>> let's bring in an analyst, webb busch morgan analyst. patrick, great to have you with us. >> thank you very much. >> you heard the trader on the desk. they are positive on what intel had to say. at the same time, does that mean that going into tomorrow's session with a 10% gain, does that translate into the trading session tomorrow, what do you recommend clients do with the stock? >> i think guys short of term, i think taking profits probably makes sense. longer-term investors will like what's happening, but clearly intel showed up to the all-star game, too. >> in terms of the conference call in about half an hour's time, what is the number one call that you will ask the management? >> i'll give you two. first will be what do we think about p.c. demand in the back half of the year. we saw a nice inventory correction. the question really is what sell-through it, is what management thinks and how they think of the back half. the second thing most investors are caring about, is going to be gross margins. we saw a nice recovery in the second quarter, well ahead of
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wis per in the third quarter. the question is how much more do they have? >> any commentary on the wind river acquisition? >> yeah, it's a great strategic fit for the company. longer term i think we care about how they getting into the s.o.c. market. i think they're focused on getting into the handset market. very lucrative market. think about the iphone, blackberries and such. it's something that's probably going to take a couple of years before we see material benefits. >> how do you reconcile what dell told us today, essentially customers deferring second-half spending. this seems to run counter to intel. they're closely aligned at least in the pc market. give me your thoughts there. >> so that's -- i think, you know, we take a look at what dell is saying, and they're saying i.t. spending, so the enterprise market clearly hasn't improved yet. we're seeing some life there, we're starting to see i.t. spending. but generally what we saw in the second quarter was kind of a recovery, inventory restocking. think about notebooks, netbooks, consumer desktops.
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>> great to have you with us, patrick wang, from wedbush morgan. we are monitoring the conference call. it is underway, actually gets underway in a half an hour's time. jim goldman will be on the call and he will be tweeting for us and we'll check in live in the second half of the program. >> melissa, one of the great reactions tomorrow is if guy's right and it does start to show a pullback, but still like intel long term, they will crush the volatility. they will take every bit of premium not just the july, but even the august that was already coming in, they will bring that even lower, the protection you can bite in the form of puts if you're willing to go long intel will be extremely cheap for the next month, next quarter. >> so keep that? mind if you're watching it and hold it. next trade, goldman sachs flexing its muscle. certainly the earnings were all bullish analysts on the street were in fact expecting, surging 6% yesterday, following up today with a flat performance, but it
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held onto the gains. that's the important thing. >> i don't think we should be surprised. first of all, goldman beats 80% of the time on the bottom line, 90% of the time on the top line. we had a lot of people piling in yesterday. so it was somewhat muted, not a big surprise. this is what the sector needed, except -- and i think that's really what people scratch their heads, and they went back over and we're looking forward friday. jpmorgan is the guy you need to get excited about, if you want to translate that into more of the commercial bank plays. but again, jpmorgan is the name i'm looking at to tell me how healthy the sector is. >> the capital markets themselves, this is a phenomenal read through. 245 million per day, well above what it saw last year at this time, well above what you saw in the first quarter, the capital markets have healed themselves clearly. now you look upon these investment banks, goldman sachs is operating as the world's
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largest hedge fund. that's good for the markets themselves. that's what we need. now you look at morgan stanley, want to see if morgan stanley can follow suit with what goldman sachs did. >> the capital markets have healed themselves, when it comes to proprietary trading, when you look at value, that's slightly up. >> that's their fastball, not the uncle charlie. certainly not -- >> they are not a bank, so to compare them to a bank is ludicrous. they do some of the same business. >> and let me present this analogy to you. here's a trading pit where you have, let's say 50 traders, and because of what happened with the credit crisis over the fall, you now have removed probably 50 to 60% of the population of that trading pit. what remains in the trading pit the goldman sachss, the morgan stanleys, jpmorgans, that's a
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tremendous opportunity for them because of the consolidation, they're the only ones left 679 >> in terms of jpmorgan, a report on this friday, pulled back, listen, that 35.25 left is still there for anyone that wants to get short this market, which frankly i think is not a bad idea. listen, closed them up $35.25, that's brutal, by the way. jpmorgan is short, buy it back around $32. >> that's the only baseball card you're ever going to find yourself on. come on. >> that's a little harsh, tim. what do you hate more, the obama trade animation or the baseball cards? what if we put the animation in the baseball cards? >> oh, a double negative, then i would love it, maybe. let's talk more about goldman sachs and meredith whitney's call yesterday, but coming out today with a note sailing don't be fooled by the rally. when you take a look at this, meredith whitney, with all due respect was the late to the game.
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dick bove upgrading, and basic of america merrill lynch upgrading july 9th. and then meredith -- >> that's not fair. i'm not a meredith -- i work with meredith. when she started her own shop. it takes a lot of time to roll out coverage. it takes time. thest not like she's been in an existing firm for five years and was late to the game. she started a new shop, she did her homework, had people working for her. this is the first name she came out with. so to say she's late is just not fair. there's a lot of reason to criticize her. that's not one of them, though. >> $20 in earnings for the year, if that's really the number, which is about $4 or $5 than anybody else on the street, she's not late, probably early. at ten times a $200 stock, just like difficult bove said day, maybe she's late later, but au as guy says, she's on board and
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got plenty of room to the up side. >> spot on. >> but we're just raising the charts, because if you are a listener to this show, and we highlight dick bove's called in april, if she's not late to the game, he was right on the money. >> are we talking about whitney being right on you goldman being a great stock? and they're figuring out how to make more money. to get to that $20 number that we're talking about. >> would you commit new money at 149.66? >> i think technically i don't love it, but yes, i like the earnings story. one of the things i thought was interesting is they are looking to buy maybe an asset manager, because that's where the margins are on this business, and bar clays when they sold to blackstone, goldman is very good in this space. they're very good at this space. this is a place where margins are still alive. they will take shares. >> and the market has been a trading environment. i think you will get some kind of pullback. i still love it. trim some, you've got to take some off. >> where would you look to get back in. >> anything close to the low 140s again, i think it's a steal money is going to go into the
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bank of mc, the ones where earnings have yet to follow. >> bank of america, which meredith whitney says is cheap. some more after-hours action we are tracking for you, yum brand is down in the after hours sessions, beating earnings expectations, but missing on the revenue front now. you see the decline in shares. >> it basically gave back today's gains. i think it's trading effectively where we closed yesterday give or take. you know what? the earnings were fine, revenues were a tad light, guidance was fine. these guys 15 sometimes earnings, we saw goldman sachs, i think they put a $40 price, i think yum is a great story. >> i think they're a victim of their own success. anyone that's been watching this show knows we've been talking about the growth side. this is where it happens in china. they also they get some tail
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winds from commodity prices. which are lighter. this will help a lot of guys on the margins. so where sales won't hit the top line, the bottom line is better than expected and that's what you'll see these guys do next year. >> here's another headline. it is full backing the full-year eps view. >> that's how they gelt there. >> the growth story is, like you say, an absolutely incredible. obviously the china is the lead there, but there is weakness still. they've been some problems there, but, if anything, if china's got any kind of recovery, 10% growth there, the expansion they're planning, 500-some stores, that's huge, and i think yum is a steal even at these levels right now, as much as it's run up, you can still buy it. >> talk about another slice of the consumer, topping the trade today, retailers up in sales in june were higher than expected. sec consecutive monthly gain. sears, saks, macy's, the index was up, as well. the index that tracks the
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retailers here. are we reading too much into this? >> no, i think some retailers are better than others. gap, about a month or so ago, she said she liked gap, and i agree. look at it in terms of a chart. went up from 9 1/2, traded to about 18, traded back. now it's sort of building from that base 14 1/2 or so. i like gap a lot. their comps are always awful, they have been for the last four years, but they're running their business better, i think gap is a name, gps, that you can own. >> i'm scratching my head at the retail sales number being construed of anything but bad. you -- if you strip out gas and autos, this was actually on the core down .2% from where it was expected and may was revised downward. i don't think the consumer has any legs to them. we know this from the labor and earnings numbers. we know this from the labor and earnings numbers. i think you'll get more of the same. >> the only trade out there on the retail space is the trade-down. kohl's is a good name, but rising unemployment, retail you cannot get too excited about.
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>> let's move on to the next trade. earnings edge we're all preparing for the rest of earnings season taken as a whole. will corporate america's results void or validate the rally? our next guest is here to answer that question. danny hughes is a ceo of divine capital it is markets. great to see you in person here. >> great to see you, melissa. hi, boys. >> i like that. i'm a big fan of that. >> so dhani, where are you expecting the beats in earnings season? >> the whole picture is all about this quarter, right? everybody cut back inventories, if you follow, what's the first thing to happen. consumer discretionary comes back, tech comes back. what we're looking for is industrials capex. where is that happening and how fast is it happening, right? so we're looking at bellwethers, we're looking at companies like ingersoll-rand, companies that are investing in the machinery
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that takes us to the next level, okay? nobody's going to hire people right now. they're calling it a jobless recovery. well, of course nobody is going to hire people to sit there by the phone and wait for the phone to ring. first we have to see product peak and then we'll see people come back on to the scene. but we don't think that's going to happen any time soon. we think that earnings are going to disappoint. >> is that something like caterpillar and deere? again deere reports out in the middle of august, but they are the ones that are probably most exposed to the infrastructure buildout abroad. they are machines, not people. is that what you're talking about? >> to some degrees, but some of these guys are exposed in the farm area, housing and those types of industries take longer to recover. housing i think is between four to six years typically. >> so what's the trade, dhani? >> i am buying product activity names, power management, tech companies, and we're buying companies like fuel tech, companies like fuel tech, diodes that either have a productivity mandate or policy mandate.
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in other words that the administration is saying utility companies, you guys have to get with the program because of emissions. >> it's always good to have support of the obooma administration these days. dhani, a pleasure. >> thank you very much. after the break, our own jim goldman is fresh from the interview of the cfo of intel. we'll get the latest and imagine if they had this back in the '80s when pete was laying in the nfl. that's right. football is coming up -- coming live to your iphone. >> look at that. and we have got the ways to trade it. stay tuned. goldman confirmed the all star status, but will the rest of the banks? and follow peyton manning at the boring family picnic, live nfl action is coming to your iphone. the trade for that. and plus the big gun of this weapons maker tells us the
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firearm stocks are still "fast money" will america's post market show continues. our expert stylist recommends full & thick from pantene. it just got the good housekeeping seal. you wanna know why? the full & thick collection really leaves the hair full. starting at the roots, your hair lifts up and away. look at all this body. and that's gonna last all day. [ stacy ] a little expert advice. full, thick-looking results the leading salon brand can't beat. full & thick from pantene. healthy makes it happen.
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welcome back to "fast money," we're live at the nasdaq
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markets. take a look at the intel chart in the after hours session. it is rising sharply on the back of better than expected results and better than expected forecast. let's go to our bureau chief jim goldman for the latest. and you've also talked to the cfo in the meantime. >> yeah, got interesting information from intel's cfo stacy smith. i'll tell you, you know, it was all about guidance for intel, would the company actually provide some? not necessarily providing in the meaningful guidance in previous quarters recently, but this time we're seeing gross margins increase, seeing revenue increase, i asked stacy smith, though, about not only those guidance numbers on the increase, but really whether the company is ready to reaffirm what it said last quarter as far as the pc industry reaching a bottom and what he sees moving forward. because any good news on that front would be not necessarily just good news for intel, but indeed the entire industry. let's take a listen of how he answered that question. >> oh, our second quarter results in the outlook we've set for q-3, i think are just a reenforce the view we had a quarter ago, which is we saw the
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competing marketing bottoming in the first quarter, we saw improvement in the second quarter, and expect up in the second half. >> a seasonably up second half, that's not being just less bad news, but that indeed is good news. and going back to the video heading into the commercial break we just saw with some football stuff, i don't know if we can show that again, but this basically affirms everything that i have thought about your old friend najarian there. he indeed did play his entire nfl career without a helmet. and we're seeing the results of that today. my thoughts, we'll have the entire interview posted on the web shortly. >> thanks so much, jim goldman, and jim will be on the intel conference call that gets underway in about ten minutes. poor pete, right. >> i'm taking shots left and right. >> you've got to be -- >> you're on vacation. >> zips and nails me right in the -- yeah. >> let's move on here. we know you're spending all summer prepping your man cave.
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>> what? >> you've got a man cave, don't you? >> who doesn't? >> the start of football season, but in case you do have to leave the living room, direct tv is launching a new app for the iphone allowing subscribers to watch the nfl anywhere. what will this mean for the digital provider? joining us is research analyst rich greenefield. always a pleasure to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> who is the biggest beneficiary? more of a directv impact, i know you don't cover the iphone. >> not just the iphone, the segment wasn't really the iphone, we also learned the blackberry very soon. you're going to see this on multiple carriers and devices. the iphone's the first one, obviously that's the hot device and you're seeing it roll out. i think it shows you how directv, all they focus on is how they super serve the video customer. whatever the platform is, they want to deliver the best video to you anywhere you are. and it's especially focussed on sports. that's really their edge -- >> what kind of boost will it be to dtv? >> i think this is another string of big technology moves
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that they've shown leadership on. the cable industry still can't let you program your dvr when you're on an iphone or at your pc. and we've all got pcs open, the cable industry can't figure that out. directv's had that for quite some time. you're seeing some of the at&t and verizon, but they can't get something like that done. this is another example of using technology to drive directv. >> is this an add-on, in other words i pay $280 for the ticket and another $100 to get it on my app and the offer expires july 31st? >> first you pay $280 a year to get the sunday ticket, that's the package where you get all of the sunday games on the weekend. about 2 million people across the country get that now. the super fan, if you want to watch those same games in hd, get them on broad band, a bunch of other features. >> the steve najarians of the world. >> that extra $100 package will include the iphone app, the blackberry, app.
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there's only about 700,000 who pay that extra $100, this is a way to give you an incremental value add of why you're going to pay it. for directv, it's not an immediate huge move, but it should really help them drive penetration of that extra $100, which is meaningful for their overall arpu if they can get the others payi ining -- >> is this a reason to buy the stock? >> i think it's yet another reason to step in. this is the cheapest stock in the group trading at four times ebitda, six times free cash flow, we think company is out in the course of the next four months. we think the next big move is a spinoff latin america. only at .8 times leverage, this is going to buy itself private if someone doesn't buy it -- >> what is -- what do you view the value of this company in a takeout? >> we've said at&t or verizon could easily justify $35, our price target is $32, based on
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fundamentals not being bought out but a $35 plus buyout is certainly possible. multiple buyers and the cheapest name in the group and something that will ring true for this group, the strongest balance sheet in the group. under one time's leverage, the only company i cover that has tremendous capacity to buy back stock in the distribution space over the course of the next -- >> is there anybody left in the cable space then? you're staying away from that. is it disney, one of the guys with a broader revenue model? >> cable vision, we think they're about to spin off msg, an announcement coming soon where they're going to separate out msg, which is not a great free cash flow asset. it'll show you how great cable vision, which has been a dominate player, basically everyone has digital cable, they're the killer in this tri-state area. >> when are they going to sell the niknicks and rangers and madison square garden? >> the phoenix coyotes are worth $300 million, and now you have the chicago cubs being sold for $900 million.
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nobody gives the knicks and rangers any real value. >> i do. >> obviously these assets are not being sold, but segmenting them out and separating to a separate company will allow investors to do a lot more work, the valuation and should drive the stock. >> thanks so much for your time, appreciate it. next, talk your earnings edge, goldman sachs blew away estimates this morning posting a record trade for the second quarter, the first big bang report. but a whole lot more to talk about. jpmorgan, bank of america, citi, here to help us with the set-up, managing director. always a pleasure to speak with you. you know we've been talking here on the desk that goldman had a blowout quarter, but at the same time, they're not necessarily a barometer. do you get anything from the quarter and apply to what you're expecting from the others? >> yeah, i think there's three things to walk away with here. one is, i think this proves once again goldman sachs is best of breed. secondly the strength in trading in investment banking suggests most of the peers will have better quarters than a lot of
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people expect, which is good news. but unfortunately, third, commercial real estate remains a drag, so i think anyone with commercial real estate exposure that plays against, but in reality it probably reminds us credit is still a problem. it's hard to get excited about too many banks when you see a pretty big credit head wind. >> to that point, when you look at goldman sachs, you're seeing the loan and credit losses of only $700 million. the thing that concerns me when i talk about a jpmorgan, a citi, or a bank of america, what am i going to see there? >> yeah, and the problem also becomes for goldman and a morgan stanley, most of their losses are taken right up front that are over with. especially in some of the consumer loan portfolios, we're going to have losses bleeding through earnings for 18 months at some of the big banks. i think if you're going to look in bank land period, you want to look at some of the large caps like a bank of america where you get a good franchise and a cheap valuation, a jpmorgan where you get a really good franchise, still relatively cheap. but you're probably better off still looking at the capital markets plays with goldman sachs
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and morgan stanleys next. >> what's the ipo calendar looking like last half of this year early next year? >> it tends to go day by day. the backlog really isn't filling up yet, we're finally starting to see activity levels pick up. but i think we need a couple of more months at least of a stable equity market environment until you really start seeing ipos pick up for that matter. >> all right, jeff, great to have you with us, thanks so much for joining us. jeffrey hart, and a little poll action here. >> oh. i love the reaction i get when i say that. couple of words, but the reaction. tonight's question is after goldman sachs's quarter, are you buying jpmorgan before earnings on thursday? a, yes, dimon's turn to shine or b, no, too much consumer exposure. >> i think karen finerman wrote that question. time to shine, log on
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fastmoney@cnbc.com. pete, you're watching sun trust. >> pretty easy, even keel today, but $16 stock and everybody was talking about it $60 everybody wanted southeast exposure, money setter bank and they loved it, stock went to $30, before you know it under $10, now it's at $16, it's been churning for about three months. august 18 calls today, one swoop, huge call buying 65 cents came in, bought about three times normal what the volume was previous. that shows it right there. and it gives you a little idea that people are starting to look forward and wonder how bad will their earnings be? we know they're going to lose money, how much and if it's anything better maybe there's up side here. >> all right, more earnings edge here. johnson & johnson this week, ending the day only slightly higher. over the next two weeks, we're going to hear from health care heavy weights like merck as well as pfizer. positive results, mike huckman joins us again at the end of the desk moisturizing his hands as we speak.
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>> stress relieving hand lotion from -- >> why is it stress relieving? >> not just because you guys need to destress a little bit, but to illustrate a point. and that is that, you know, with today's report out of j & j, sales were down, they weren't growing as fast as people would hoped they would, they took a big hit because of currency exchange rates. get this, you guys, u.s. sales of johnson & johnson skin care products which includes aveeno and neutrogina were up. that's not a reason to buy or sell or hold the stock, but i was talking to becky quick earlier and she thinks it's an economic effect that people are trading down from for expensive brands and instead buying aveeno. >> what are you doing, pete? >> i got a lot of skin to cover, so i've got to tell you something. >> rogaine.
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>> all right. let's -- >> a little bit, because what a lot of people were focusing on in johnson & johnson's reports and what it might mean for abbott labs. can we draw conclusions in terms of the biologic? >> yes, everybody was trying to see what's the read through to abbott labs tomorrow and then the next day after that you get baxter which is a mini abbott labs and abbott labs is a mini j & j, but you want to look at the similar drug for rheumatoid arthritis and crohn's disease and you want to watch the drug coated stent sales. interestingly, we saw today j & j reported that u.s. drug coated stent sales went down 59%. 59% over the second quarter last year because of this new competition from the likes of abbott labs, boston scientific -- >> sorry. >> yeah, bounce out for me.
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elan versus two drugs going generic, dealt with both of these in the last quarter. elan acquisition, very exciting for alzheimer's. how do you balance this out for j & j as people are equating the upset? >> yeah, they took $1 billion hit because of the generic drug competition. but they did this complex arrangement with elan, bought biotechnologies as we know, but even so, reaffirmed their earnings guidance for this year which a lot of people were surprised by given the deals and acquisitions. but look, those are gambles, bets on the future. you can't make a call on that. >> mike, quick, go back one second. j & j is well diversified, a third of their sales are from humera, are they going to be as diversified as j & j to weather another bad quarter? >> more sales of medical devices in the second quarter than pharmaceuticals. >> mike huckman, thanks so much. he fills us in on pharma and
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moisturizers. coming up next, the stock report, only half the story, the conference call is about to get underway. we'll have updates for you right after this break. don't go away. on tonight's trader radar, we look at the stock lighting up screens across wall street today. founded ten years ago as way to make diamond shopping a little less stressful, this company is now the largest online seller of fine jewelry. >> this year we've seen diamonds come way off their highs, that's a great value for the consumer. >> shares of the company sparkled brighter today as the stock jumped on an upgrade of citi. who is it? the answer when "fast money" returns. taking its rightful place in a long line of amazing performance machines. this is the new e-coupe. this is mercedes-benz.
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another trader radar tonight, blue nile, the internet diamond retailer was among the most active names on the nasdaq today. welcome back to "fast money." here's what we've got for you in the second half of the show. a gun stock rally, smith & wesson on why the firearms company shares have more than doubled in since 2005. plus a home run derby stock maybe, and no, it's not who you think. and a second look at the trade now that yum brands is out with earnings.
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but first a reminder, the intel conference call getting under way. jim goldman is tweeting away as we speak, but he did speak to the cfo stacy smith who did tell jim that he's expecting a seasonally up second half of the year and we're seeing intel shares continue to gain. time for today's edition of "pops & drops." a pop for cit. it was up 21%. >> there's no way anyone should be trading this. they have a billion of debt that matures. it is question is whether they can get backing from the fdic and the treasury. >> a drop for take two. it was down 10%. pete? >> the losses expected to be 50, 65 cents. they reported 65 to 70 cents, ouch, it's going to be ugly, the stock near the 52-week low, still isn't ready to be bought. >> tim? >> as goes the rules, the ruble is stronger today. russia has been stronger.
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the stock is down 40%, it's a great company. >> pop to tiffany's. >> we bumped in now, take a look at tiffany's rallying on the back. went from 17 to 31, pulled back to 21, i think it could rally a little more here. >> they popped today, joe? >> a gain versus a loss. you look at what's going on here. you're seeing that united health care and etna stripped away from health net. the department of defense. the big loser here is health net. they derived 30% of their earnings from the department of defense contracts. and we've got a pop here, former plant life algae. the newest form of renewable energy comes in the form of pond scum or algae, the largest u.s. energy company is teaming up with the firm. investing $600 million to develop new biofuels made from the organism. a very interesting research. this is actually the subject of
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my 10th grade science fair project. >> i'll tell you the most interesting thing about this, it does not impact as far as crops were concerned. that was the biggest boondoggle as far as ethanol was considece. first time ethanol's committed $600 million, that's pretty big. >> guy's laughing because you're probably not surprised. >> five years ago, six years ago. >> i'll take the compliment. >> that's that compliment. >> there's no opposite of takedown. filing here it was up 3%. >> a big rally for metal stocks bhp is one of the biggest, still to come though, be careful. >> l 3 was up 3%. >> great homeland security. price target, ahead of price targets on july 31st. that's another name i like. >> and a drop here for president obama's teleprompter. the president had a small technical glitch yesterday as his teleprompter came crashing, very loud crash to the ground while he was speaking about the economy.
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>> bad luck. >> yes, maybe it's seven years, hopefully not. better the teleprompter than the stock market for that matter, the economy. >> absolutely. bad omen there. coming up next, do you have tickets to the gun show? is somebody going to flex? >> kick it in the pipes, steve. >> all right. we are shooting the breeze on his stocks, 100% rally this year. stay tuned. ( honking, news radio update )
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all right. let's get to the big story in the after-hour session. intel is trading higher, also sending the nasdaq futures higher as well. and very strong guidance. let's go straight to jim goldman who's been following the conference call. which has been underway for about 13 minutes. what is the latest? >> we have some prepared comments from paul odolini. he called the bottom to the pc industry just last quarter. he's saying from intel's standpoint, customers are basically sharing confidence in a second-half '09 recovery. that's not just good news for intel. that becomes good news for indeed broader technology, not the least of which would be microsoft preparing for its windows 7 upgrade.
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and what many think will be a pretty significant upgrade cycle for enterprise and consumer customers. in addition to what i have been speaking about as far as stacy smith, the cfo, is concerned, the company did account for that 1.45 billion fine connected to the antitrust case. i asked based on the fact that they are accrues that fine in the current quarter, if that means that intel is now dropping plans for its appeal, and stacy smith did tell me that he is planning on fully moving forward with the appeal, that the reason that that fine was included in the report was because of a accounting rules, and that intel will still proceed with that appeal. but nonetheless, the company is projecting a seasonal growth pattern for the back half of 2009, something that's being reiterated on the call as we speak. that's good news for all the investors in all of these sectors. >> keep us updated. guys on the desk here, what sort of conclusions do you draw based on intel's guidance. what they're saying about how
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customers feel about the economy. what does this mean -- >> late-game rally. late game rally. let's use the baseball analogy. they better by fighting this anti-trust suit. because this is garbage, a lot of the same protectionism we've been seeing throughout the european union with all of our companies. it's happening in china. they should not give into this. >> would you have used the analogy all along, what inning are we in in this crisis? i think this is confirms we are in the late innings in this entire crisis. >> you heard it on "fast money," according to j.t. moving on smith & wesson rang the closing bell last week. into the commercial security market, but shares have run up more than 100% this year, possibly for a different reason, many gun enthusiasts have been buying up the products in anticipation of a possible crackdown. joining us is the ceo of the company, michael golden. a lot of analysts are saying
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perhaps in stock upgrade that the notion that consumers are buying weapons ahead of this possible ban or restrictions is over. what are you seeing? >> you know, it's kind of interesting. when you look at our company, and there certainly was an increase in demand on firearms, right after the election, but even if you go back before the election, take the six months before, our handgun business was growing at a double-digit rate, up 14% at retail. our rifle business was growing at 100%. so the business was healthy before the growth in demand happened that was triggered by the election. what we've told people is certainly the frenzy has slowed down, but sales, i talked to about ten different dealers today, and sales are still very strong. >> michael, there's 17,000 law enforcement agencies i think in this country, 800,000 people employed. you guys used to dominate there. what is your market share there and where do you think it should go? if you're winning all of these contests across the country? >> well, amazingly, smith & wesson, you were right there were 17,000 police department,
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we used to have 98% of their business. back when police officers used the revolver as their primary service weapon. when they shifted to a pistol in the '80s, we didn't have a product to effectively compete, and we lost most of that business. we've been coming back at it very aggressively over the last three years. we designed a new product specifically to regrain our position with the military and with police. it's doing extremely well. we're winning over 80% of the competitions for contracts with law enforcement. last quarter we announced big departments like detroit, milwaukee, raleigh, north carolina. in addition, we're selling a tactical rifle to law enforcement and winning over 90% of the competition on that. >> how are you doing as far as the military itself? you addressed it sort of briefly? but how about the military? how are the contracts going there? >> that's a big opportunity for our company, and a billing opportunity on two fronts. one is with the rifle, the m-4. the defense department has said they're putting together a requirement, they'll put out an
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rfp at the end of this year for replacement for the m-4. we have a rifle that we think will be competitive and we think or manufacturing facility is absolutely second to none. we're being told the contract for pistols, today the u.s. military uses the pistol that's 25 years old from beretta. >> michael, pleasure to have you with us. please join us again. michael golden, the ceo of smith & wesson. don't go anywhere one of our all-star traders, guy adami. there he is. the one and only guy adami, so we put him in that -- there he is. going, going, gone. stay tuned.? yeah, i'm looking for car insurance that isn't going to break the bank. you're in the right place. only progressive gives you the option to name your price. here. a price gun? mm-hmm. so, i tell you what i want to pay. and we build a policy to fit your budget. that's cool. uh... [ gun beeps ]
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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square. we just got off the line with the ceo of smith & wesson. what do you make of this trade? swhc? >> last quarter was phenomenal, 99.5 million in sales. the question is, are they out of bullets? this quarter which ends july 31st, really, are they out of bullets? i don't know if they'll be able to hit the 99 million mark.
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maybe they will come in somewhere around the low 90s, and you have to understand that if you buy the stock here. >> they made a huge acquisition. nobody's talking about them. the perimeter protection. these guys have tremendous up side. this has become a homeland security play. just think about railroad crossings, there are a lot of ways to play these guys. i think there's 280,000 railroad crossings in the united states. if they get 10%, it's a couple billion business to them. smith & wesson is a name that not a lot of people cover, but it's a name that should go higher. >> let's move on to "trading after dark." after the bell, we saw after-hours action on the stock. we saw a decline. for more on this, patty with her take on the fast food names. patty, great to see you. would you use this weakness as a buying opportunity on the stock? >> i think you've got to look at yum as more of an international play. we know that china's stimulus has been working better than in the u.s. it's about a quarter to 30% of revenues.
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you might as well go in now and get some of those revenues going forward. i think it's got greater legs and not just chicken legs, if you know what i mean. >> can we extrapolate the quarter on yum to other fast food casual dining players? >> we saw ruby tuesday's last week came in with really good numbers. yum was way better than expected. i think you have to look and see that the consumer is trading down, and this is just further proof of that. add to that the commodity costs are coming down, and i think you have dinner and a movie, something for trading after dark here. >> just real quick, i think burger king is something that's overlooked, despite the creepy mascot. better earnings growth and cheaper ps than everyone else in the space. >> yeah, but the creepy mascot, that's why it's cheaper, right? >> it's creepy. i don't want him. i don't like him. >> good point, patty edwards. great to speak to you. patty edwards with storehouse partners. i concur on that, really creepy, burger king. coming up after the break, we've got your final trade.
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time to reveal who made the most money today. it is the employees of goldman sachs. reuters reporting they may out pay almost $1 million per employees in compensation and benefits this year. >> good for them.
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>> final trade here. no comment there. >> we are long nbt. >> on vacation for a week and a half.. see you in a week. >> take a look at wynn resorts. triple l had a great day. i think honeywell follows them up. >> we will miss you, guy. i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you back at 5:00 p.m. tomorrow for more "fast money." when this hotel added aflac to compliment their benefits package aflac! it made a big splash with the employees yeaaaahhhh! find out more at aflac!... ...forbusiness.com (laughter)

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