tv Fast Money CNBC July 20, 2009 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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usually we come out and trend higher. this time can they meet in the next couple weeks? that is a big question. >> does that set us p for a fall essentially? we were riding high. >> theoretically, it sets us up for a fall. the volumes are light. we're waiting for that money to come back in. and mutual fund and pension fund money is sitting on the sidelines. does it come back? i don't know. >> i think it's starting to come back. what you're seeing is a little bit of that chase. last week we talked about the day where we saw the volatility spike up towards 26. now we're seeing it come back down a little bit. early in the day, a little bit of a pop in the volatility. i think a little more panic as we get closer. now we close above 950. the people on the sidelines, that $900 billion, whatever the figure, is they want in. the longer we sustain, that's going to push people in. you have the global push today. you had upgrades of pea body energy and caterpillar. that is going to bring folks back into the marketplace. they need to see the global push. when they buy into it, that will
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extend what we had last week. giddyap. >> think about what pete just said, 950 in the s & p. two weeks ago, 870. all the mutual fund guys were saying 850 is next. we're holding off. we're not going to place our flag in the sand. we're going to buy it on the way down and average. that is the mentality. >> and we wanted something other than energy. i mean everybody -- i talked to joe. he and i have gone back and forth. i don't like when oil starts getting to $70. i like it a lot closer to $60. the consume kerr hold on to that money and start to spend it and not just hold on to that money and put it in at 1%. i like when oil is underneath $65. i'd like to see it back towards $60. this has never been a story between demand of oil between 60 and 70. >> and as for the rally in oil, that's where these guys are. that's where the mutual funds need to be, comfortable putting risks back in. they need the earnings season to say reaffirmation that -- they don't need knockout earnings. >> the goldman sachs call today for 1050 on the s & p by year's
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end, is that effectively calling the market bottom? >> they're not calling the market bottom. >> but if you interpret this call and saying overweight financials here, is that essentially a call at the worst level? >> what they're highlighting is improving market conditions. they're highlighting improving market conditions attributed to the brick nations. you're seeing resillency in the brick nass. again, it goes back to better earnings. what do you get? you get tomorrow, you get caterpillar. you get apple. you get amazon. that will be a blockbuster and the name that i love, microsoft. at the end of the day, it is about earnings. if people say they're less bad, yes, they are less bad and they're also managing the bottom line phenomenally. in certain cases, they're actually showing great ton line. >> goldman sachs didn't make this call today. if you look back to may 1st, that's when they made the call. they just didn't verbally come out and say it. they upgraded chemicals, coals, steels. they go with every sector.
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sector by sector. now you jump into the financials. that was the call back then. we talked about it then by moving into those areas, that's talking about global growth and those we talked about three, six, nine months out. steel, six to nine months out minimum. but by making that call when they did, they were already telling you we're going over 1,000. >> think about what they did last week. everyone thought goldman sachs, the sun is rising and setting by goldman sachs. the timing is a little bit critical here, don't you think? so as goldman sachs goes, so goes the economy. i think that's what we're looking at. >> and you're also operating in an environment where everyone is very, very cautious about showing optimism. and what does that mean? that tells you the hand of what the market has right now. the hands right now that they're playing with is very, very un r underinvested. that is important as you move forward. again, at some point you got to chase the benchmark and move in and try and show performance. >> right. let's move on to the next trade. we want to talk about a sector that was -- that is technology. they had a big earnings report from apple, yahoo, amazon and
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ebay. traders buying. nasdaq just came off the best year in a decade. and certainly that call on cisco was very interesting. >> what's interesting about it, first of all, they're pointing to a recovery in the u.s. business and not in the overseas part of the business. that is making up for turbulence and inconsistency. what worries me about cisco, the rsi, these are reliable measures. these are in a ban where they've been selling down every time they hit this mark. it is cisco, intel, the number of these guys where we actually get the fundamental rational for taking these things higher. i'm actually very concerned on a couple of these names. >> i'll take the other side of. that you got to love what technology is doing right now. cisco, what are we talking about? we're talking about technology that has a tremendous amount of cash. are you talking about a sector that is best positioned to come out of this crisis. they went through this in 2001. they understand it. google, apple, microsoft, they
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all basically in essence going to war with each other, creativity, invasion. that's what comes out of this. that's beneficial to the market. that's beneficial to the sector. and that's why the sector is up nine days in a row. >> and when you talk about the stocks, what do you look at? the very first thing you start to look at is the balance sheets. they have incredible balance sheets. >> that hasn't changed. >> you're right. it hasn't changed. i'll tell whaushgs the groyou w margins from last week, that spoke volumes. if the numbers they put out if, they're improving there as well, that's going to be something that's going to propel us that much further. because the semiconductors, they've been moving to the upside. you start to get cisco, you start to get to the rest of the technology to follow along, we already heard from ibm, we start to get hewlett-packard, they're all moving to the upside. >> 70% of the stocks move with the overall market. so when the market is 870, they were selling tech, too. it doesn't matter. tech wasn't that strong. >> or they would not sell it anymore.
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ibm hit that $100 level, we talked about intel getting closer to 15, always is a level about. you look at these. they have an area where there is monster support. if they can breakthrough the resistance, then there is more upside, i mean incredible upside. >> i want to go deeper in the call on cisco systems today, the upgrade. they're going to increasingly face competition from microsoft, ibm and hewlett-packard. does that make you feel more strongly about those companies? >> supposedly, there is a fundamental story. a lot of the other sectors we're talking about in repricing, there is no fundamental story behind it. tech, there is a fundamental story that will drive the sector higher. and when you get to the back half of 2009, seasonally, that is the strongest period. so bring that altogether. then you give me an economic recovery in the fourth quarter, god you got to love technology. >> especially if the corporate spending comes back. that is a big wild card. for a company like cisco, half the revenue comes from business spending. that is a wild card. >> right. what do they do? they're laying off human ann
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beings and stay invested in technology. it is a bullish call. >> and as they lay off, they're going overseas for some of the employment. i mean that's part of the cost cutting that they're all doing in the technology world. i mean they keep moving from america and moving other places. >> so it's a zero sum game. tend of the day, it has to be a bull market. >> one quick point, the nasdaq coming off the best we can week in a decade, not a year. although it may be the best year in a decade. we'll find out december 31. >> that will be nice. >> jumping the gun a little bit. time for after hours action. check in on texas revenues. rev knees beat guidance. the stock trading mixed right now. a little soft in the after hour session. of course, it had that big run during the session on the back of an upgrade. jim goldman has the latest. >> good evening. that conference call beginning in 20 minutes. i got to tell you, the trading after hours is fast and furious. 20 cents a share versus the 18 cents, beating on the top line as well so important to the company.
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investors wanted to sigh so ede kind of sales strength. look at that order line as well. 2.8 billion versus the 2.5 to 2.7 billion that wall street was anticipating. and guidance, i mean this new range of 29 to 39 cents against the 27 cents that wall street was anticipating, again, just appears now that this is a lot more than less bad news but actual good news as companies like texas instruments, true bellwethers in the sectors that they serve are now beginning to really feel the effects and look out ahead. remember, it wasn't just a couple quarters ago where these companies weren't offering any guidance. and now the guidance we're getting just blows apart any kind of estimate that's wall street is looking at. you guys hint on some of the key themes here. you're looking at apple tomorrow. microsoft later in the week. again, not less good news now but actually honest to goodness good news as we look toward the
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back half of 2000. >> any news on the commentary. they were looking mid 40s and they got 51%. they're getting much more normalized. excuse me, texas instruments to night? >> same thing we're hearing from texas instruments as well as far as margins are concerned. we're hearing the same thing from the likes of micron, national semiconductor, you mentioned intel, we have isupply already calling officially now, according to this market research firm anyway, a bottom in the industry. we're finally going to start to see revenue grow. these are now not just mere green shoots, i hate that phrase, this is like bamboo. i mean like, you plant this stuff and it just starts growing all over the place. >> and bamboo is most prevalent in china. and that is the argument here. >> wow, what a segue. >> thank you. thank you. amazing metaphor. that seems to apt. >> all right. speaking of pandas, let's talk
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about commodities. >> why not? >> commodity come back. we see that in material and energy names. halliburton beat earnings. we were talking on the halftime report at 12:45 p.m. eastern time about -- >> that's right. >> copper at a nine-month high here. >> the point i want to make about copper, it actually is seeing inventory tightness. and that is in addition to the fact that we know people are buying on the inverse of the dollar trade. we also have the commodities. this is the same trade. and they're rushing even faster and harder back into the commodity trades we were talking about three weeks ago. the next few days, we have freeport tomorrow and southern copper reporting after the bell. they may have just reported. you have tech and tck reporting on wednesday and brazil. some of the biggest copper, zifrpg playezinc companies are reporting. that is the key. i look at the commodities this morning, we also came in, china made a big push for oil and gas
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assets. but chinese are telling that you they're around the world buying up everything. that's reinforcement. >> there's a clear divergence between actual oil futures, gas futures, the futures that smell sells actually in the commodities space versus the equity names. that's what you want to own. goldman sachs talked about the big three, hess, pet row vas and suncorps. that stock is ripping harder. it is in the face of oil futures that fundamentally don't have the story and don't have the support of price action. so you get that exposure that you need through the equity names. natural gas. again, can't get out of its own way. look at apache, xto, eog. they're continuing to move higher. >> and suncore. they need level at a certain level. that is pushing that stock right now. i tell you what, going into the earnings, volatility is at the lowest level since last august. people not expecting a monster move out of freeport. the one thang is interesting, we talked about goldman sachs knocking the cover off the ball. the stock as for as freeport is concerned, $2 copper, no longer
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$2. it's near $2.50. they have crushed this quarter. their numbers should be absolutely staggering. but going forward, now it's all about what are you going to do for me next? they're looking at citi out todato $2.50 this year. the numbers are getting better. if that's the case, freeport is still very cheap. volatility is pricing in a very small move. >> let's just touch on, we talked about coal. a lot on the show. coal up 5%, 6% across the board. remember, global exposure, they want copper. they want coal. they want potash. >> we talked a lot about the oil services needs. does it concern anybody what halliburton's ceo said in the commentary? >> i don't think so. >> no meaningful recovery in natural gas or demand for drillers. >> this is starting to become a positive thing. they can put more drilling dollars to work. they're not spending as much on the other parts of the production cost. i think halliburton is very conservative here. i think -- baker hughes and others said the rate count is
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going up. this is a high beta part of the oil space. i think natural gas is a different funneledmental story with the drillers and oil and integrated oils which is my trade here. i think these guys have great kmoe su exposure here. they have dividend yields that are fantastic. >> and the tech resources last week, thursday, the stock was up since wednesday's close, 30%. since thursday's close, over 20%. they were coming after everything in august. over 27,000 trading on the day. extremely active on the call side last week. the stock continues to perform. they've got earnings. the catalyst is wednesday. litening up into the -- if anyone has been onboard for the last couple days makes a lot of sense. this is a staggering move in a short period of time. >> let's talk about the next right here, earlier this afternoon, the economist known as dr. doom spoke to cnbc and gave his outlook for the recovery. i'm guessing he is still bearish. take a listen. >> i think they're going to beat stock by 1% growth for the next
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couple years. it's going to feel like a recession and actually we're out of a recession. and i see employment peeking at 11%. so it's going to be ugly. >> so he is still still bearish. >> i've been critical of him because of the market call. he called back on march 6th and clearly, i mean that conversation is over. the subpoe & p moved higher. you have to agree with him. rising unemployment to 11%. clearly a challenging. >> 5% though. that is actually something -- >> it depends on how you calculate it. >> he also -- he's dr. doom. >> maybe it is 11%. >> he also talked about the infect of the obama taxing and regulation. and i thought the best thing of the conversation was his firm belief that a second stimulus package is going to be needed in 2010. that's very, very important moving forward. >> me list yashgs my point is it's probably going to be higher
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than 11%. so coming out of dr. doom, i think you have to be saying it's 14%. because no matter how you calculate it, it's worse than the government is telling us right now. that's the problem. >> yeah. that s. >> it's a problem for anything. >> we actually have another bit of the interview. >> it may be the bottom is at the end of the year. we have over $12 trillion of financial support. so we won't have a free fall anymore. >> we're not going to have a free fall anymore. >> that's the only part i caught. i swear to you. >> the free fall was last fall. >> it's the accent. he's been so negative. you know, at some point he has to start looking at the markets and seeing what is happening and what tim is talking about, the emerging markets and growth that could pro tepel us to the next level and start lowering the unemployment numbers. >> people have to have a total paradigm shift in the way think think about global growth. it's what you said.
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the emerging markets are not only a commodity in the next story for themselves, these are domestic economies. auto sales in china are up 37%. brazil up 17%. so the point is industrial production emerging markets are now over half car sales. car sales and durable goods orders trickle through to the developed economy. i think people talk about -- the u.s. labor market is huge. consumer spending is a big thing. i think people are having trouble reckmemberinckoonciling middle. >> all right. let's move on. time for a little bull market. the stock market continuing last week's rally. the s&p 500 at a new high for the year. goldman sachs may think we're headed higher. one man is not buying all the hype. he is barry rizzo. he is author of "bailout nation." he joins us on the fast line. barry, always a pleasure to speak with you. >> thanks for having me. >> specifically on housing market, because that is your bailey wick here, we had data recently. we had housing starts. we had new listings for may and
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some people piece that together and say that is a sign of the bottom in the housing market, therefore, that is good news for the stock market. why is that not the case? >> two reasons. first, you know, when you talk about the housing market, you're talking about quarters and years. when we talk about the stock market, we're talking about weeks and months. and in the case of our panel here, we're talking about minutes and hours. so it's a very, very different time line. we could be in and out of three or four major trades long before the housing market goes to its next leg. >> three more major trades like what, barry? i mean you make a good point in that the economy and what you see in the housing market is not necessarily what you might see in the stock market or trade. so, therefore, there can be trades that can be successful for you even if you don't have a bottom in the housing market. >> that's exactly right. in the accounts we manage for individuals, we're mostly long. and we have a high concentration in technology names. we own things like ebay and del and maximsemiconductors and
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electronic arts. these are companies that have a combination of a relatively good chart and if the fundamentals are not good, at least it's being reflected and fairly washed out prices. i was a bear on del for years and years and years. we had a short position a couple years ago. so when we look at dell at $11 and $12, you have to it this bulk of the bad news and then some is reflected in the stock that's down, you know, 70%, 80% from the peak. >> barry, back to your wheel house housing, what are we looking for? caterpillar, bank of america upgraded them based upon the fact they see the bottom in the construction sector we're starting to see the trickle through. what should we be looking at? i have to tell you even for me there is conflicting signals and what are the metrics that you're following that people can follow-through on? >> good question. first, first and foremost is price. i'm a market guy. so i always look at price. and then i take the prices and look at what are the historical metrics by which we value houses? and there are three big ones,
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median income versus median home price, we look at the cost of renting versus the cost of owning. then the total capization of the housing stock in the u.s. as a percentage of gdp. the good news is all these metrics are way off the highs. these were three and four standard deviation as way from historic norms. and they have come considerably down. but they're still 10% and 15% above that trend line. that's the first set of metrics. the second set of data points that are so important is, you know, when you get an asset class that's overvalued, and it doesn't matter. it could be commodities or equities or anything. you rarely merely revert back to the mean. unfortunately, you tend to go past that historic trend line and go too far to the other side. and that's the fear we're going to see on the housing side of things. >> all right, barry, always a pleasure. and that was word on the street. coming up next, microsoft's $90 billion ad campaign is squarely
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aimed at google. but was yahoo caught in the crossfire? we'll give you the trade before yahoo reports. plus all this coming up next. earnings season's biggest event. apple, america's favorite stock reports. tom watson proves anything, you need the veteran trading experience on this desk. trade a stock that everyone is watching. and can the new yahoo ceo keep going? the street's top analyst gives usz the earning's edge. plus this guy is no potato head. the head toy maker on how he's feeding the recession. the hottest toys of the summer when america's post market show continues. not long ago, this man had limited mobility.
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or with your insurance company. we can even help with financing. if there's a way, we'll find it! so don't wait any longer, call the scooter store today. welcome back. we're live in new york city's time square. ad revenues and increasing competition and a failed microsoft deal, yahoo had many headwinds this year. the stock up 40%. so is it still a safe bet? joining us to talk about it from jeffries. quite a run on the stock ahead of earnings. is it setting itself up for a fall here? >> well, we think so, yes. short term. so we think it's going to be an
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inline quarter, expectations are muted. yet, as you said, the stock up is 40%. the s & p is flat. so not surprised to see the stocks sell off post earnings. long-term, though are we still like it. >> so if it does sell off, you have a buy rating on the stock. what is an entry point? >> probably mid teens. i think if the fundmentals are, you know, continue to be in line with expectations, then i think the two areas where we're going to be looking for one is potential search with microsoft and that is the eternal question. we certainly still think it's going to happen. and additionally, on the search side -- i'm sorry, on the display side near the year end, things will improve. >> today there was a monster put buyer. they're expecting a pull back in the stock. 36,000 of the 1715 put spreads fall today. let's say we get the pull back. do they need to do a deal with
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microsoft to be successful going forward or can they do it stand alone? and if so, what's your target, you would say, if we get the pull back in the mid teens? >> so you're right. if -- the stock pulls back into the mid teens, fundamentally the stock on its own should be worth around $20. having said that, i think longer term without a microsoft deal, think yahoo will have a tough going. you'll have them competing for internet and basically engineering, cutbacks to compete to try to outgoogle google if you will or compete with bing. i think that will be very difficult. where i see yahoo becoming very good is going back to media and becoming the larger display advertiser out there. i think they can make a lot of money by doing that. >> all right. youssef, always a pleasure. is there a trade on yahoo here? if it does fall back to the mid teens and that he says is the entry point. >> i think a trade on yahoo is a confirmation of microsoft's aggressive strategy.
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microsoft really gets this deal done, it shows you that microsoft has changed their tune completely and they're going full throttle in terms of getting aggressive. >> anybody else? >> i think steve put it best. i think a trade on yahoo, the same trade you have in tech. they're trading together for the most part. yahoo is brought up by positive news a couple weeks back. i don't see it going to the next level. i'd be reluctant to jump on. >> later on in the show, the move you only have 24 hours to make before apple reports tomorrow afternoon, get the trade in just a few moments time. next right here, the obama trade. the president again today underlining his case for health care reform. this time saying the system favored profits over patients. >> over the past decade, premiums have doubled in america. out of pocket costs have shot up by a third. deductibles have continued to climb. yet, even as america's families have been battered by spiralling
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health care costs, health insurance companies reaped wind fall profits. >> the largest of the insurers that got the wind fall profits is united health. they report tomorrow morning. steve, what is your take? what is your take on the president's rhetoric? >> i think the president at this point is getting a little desperate. we've seen his language change. we watched the language get more aggressive. and it is sort of a teacher talking to 6-year-olds at this point. so i think if you're playing the space, if people look for the biggest player, unh is the biggest player. i'm seeing money flows. i play it that way. i just don't like this desperate measures that we're going through here. so if you chart president obama's approval rating and you look at the unh, you can see they just cross. as soon as people think he's not handling the situation fine, unh pops. you know, the good news here is that he is failing on this health bill. and that you go after the guys that are the easiest targets.
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everyone was i think other than senior management at all these drug companies and the shareholders agree that these guys are making out a mint. the way to solve this problem is not texting the people that have been paying full medical bills their entire lives. this is an unpopular bill. i don't think it's going to pass in the current form. this is a great way to start backtracking. >> it is the only life line. if this bill passes, you're going to see a cascading downward of all these stocks. it's their only hope at this point. i mean they don't know. we don't know what the future is going to hold in health care. but if the bill passes, it's going one way and that's south. >> the one area that you can still point, to you look at the generic drug companies. and i still look at the biggest and baddest out there. they're the google of the generic drug space. they justin to go higher and higher and they have the innovative side. they're creating their own line of pharmaceuticals on top of the generic space. this stock, look at that chart. all it does is go higher and higher. the ceo has done a great job of acquisitions along the way. it looks like it is a high pe. it's not. this is a great stock. >> you know, we play that
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animation of obama -- >> they love. that. >> i do. if you're watching, that one is for you. >> i'm on vacation. >> hopefully -- i mean as much as "fast money" mag necessity ti magnifies the show. >> talked about bernanke. tomorrow the market is hoppiing for a stellar performance. so can bernanke insure he pleases both congress and the markets? on the fast line is dr. neil soft, chief economist at credit suisse. what is at stake for ben bernanke tomorrow? how much will this testimony amount to audition to keep his job? >> oh, i think he's got to talk about the fact that a recovery is now under way. that recession is over. and that the fed and other instruments had a lot to do with that happy outcome. but he has to be delivering the sober news that neither the fed nor the mainstream forecasters
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is expecting a terribly robust recovery. and that means that the management of this economy is going to have to be in safe hands for a period of time in the future. >> doesn't that imply that the fed is just playing politics now and totally un -- you know, they're not independent now and bernanke is going to be taking a very different tactic than any other fed governor? they're worried about what congress is going to do to him tomorrow. i don't think they have the power to do it. the logic tells me that the fed is no longer independent and that scares me. >> i don't know why that should be the case. in terms of forecast, they're deep in the mainstream at the moment. it's always the case that central bank anchors mainstream forecast. but they're not sitting there as pie eyed optimists about what the economy has in store. >> dr. soss, it's joe. when does i take back the liquidity in is the plan to soak up liquidity through bank reserves? the question really becomes, do we have the political will to
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allow that to happen? >> well, if that's the question, then i think bernanke's answer has to be that's exactly why you want an independent central bank and i think he's going to argue that the central bank has been independent through this episode and deserves to remain so. >> all right. dr. soss, thank you very much for joining us tonight on the program. dr. neal soss. coming up next, the '0880s, they're back. was that a good time four, pete? >> wow! >> transformers and gi joe. one company benefitting is anything but hollywood. the ceo of hasbro on his company's blockbuster profits up next. at 155 miles per hour, andy roddick has the fastest serve in the history of professional tennis. so i've come to this court to challenge his speed. ...on the internet. i'll be using the 3g at&t laptopconnect card. he won't so i can book travel plans faster,
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is that the drug eluding stints, that's impressive. that is also something that can come back to bite you a little bit. it is such a dangerous area. the lawsuits that are involved with the stint world, they always pop up with the folks that are involved there. and that is what makes it very toxic. great night tonight. they hit the eight-month highs. >> absolutely. we'll keep track of the stock with the after hours session for you along with a lot of the other after hours movers like texas instruments. moving on time for the earnings edge right now, hasbro, the world's second largest toy maker reporting better than expected earnings today earlier helped by cost cutting measures and the success of the transformers toy line. the stock closing the day higher. on the fast line is hasbro president and ceo brian goldner. >> thanks for having me. >> in terms of demand, what do you see in terms of demand? you're seeing strength of the toys tide in with movies. are you seeing real impetus for the consumers to buy? >> in addition to the growth in
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our boys business in 19%, our girls business grew by 14%. littlest pet shop perform. we've have seen gains. and in our games business and preschool business through playskool was up by 13%. you look at the total company in the second quarter, the pos was up for the company both in toys and games. and so, yes, we're building our brands and reinventing, reimagining, reigniting those plans, providing immersive brand experience that's are different for each audience. motion pictures are part of the strategy. but certainly not the whole strategy. >> brian, happy to see that nerf football lives on. certainly one of my favorite toys growing up. what of the china lead paint and all the concerns about toys made in china, how you have been collateral damage if at all, you know, to the extent that the sector is growing and obviously seeing it around the world. do you care about those markets as well? >> well, certainly do. first, of course, nerf gone way beyond that football. it's now all significant
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blasters and going around the world. in fact, the brand grew by 33% because of our global growth and taking the brand outside of the u.s. and driving it around the world. hasbro was not a company affected by the recent lead paint recalls. that was not part of our company. and we had in place a process to insure that that did not happen and had those processes in place for many years. so, again, what we continue to do is drive our brands, focus on the quality of the products. but also driving the brands around the world. >> brian, it's joe. clearly transformers, gi joe, that's been a positive in terms of movies. looking forward, 2010, what do you snee what do you have coming down the pike? >> well, if we're going to talk about movies, we have two major motion picture supporting product lines, iron man ii and toy story 3 from disney. that is a line of co-branded games as well as mr. and mrs. potato head. and then, of course, as we go forward, we're developing a number of films of our own
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brands in a relationship with universal. so our first movie has been slated for april 2011. and that is "stretch armstrong." >> can you talk about the launch of the discovery network? it's going to launch in late 2010. you cut the amount you expect this hob diluted in nature. >> sure, it will be a creed in 2011. we mitigated the cost based on maturization schedules we realized as we put to bed the acquisition. last year margo came onboard. she'll start later in august. but margaret is a tremendous resource for us, a leader who's really proving capabilities in the business, somebody i have known since the late '90s. we worked together at fox kids network. >> great. brian, great to have you with us. hope you come back on the program. brian goldner. you are a buyer? i know you love the nerf and the
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potato head. >> mr. potato head, i learned how to get dressed through mr. potato head. >> but he doesn't wear clothes. >> exactly. >> he's actually not wearing pants right now. >> i don't understand how you learn that. but go ahead. >> that is a cheap stock. a great pipeline. and the consolidation really tloed a ha led to a handful of names. >> mr. potato head? >> all right. time now for today's edition of pops and drops. kick it off with a pop. dow chemical, up 5% on the session. >> they moved the folk us from basic chemicals to specialty chemicals. they go on the conviction buy list. goldman sachs is red hot. you have to like them going up. >> pop for the media stocks. >> today disney and a lot of the television cable networks doing well. that lines up well for sprint.
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>> pop for the casino stocks like las vegas sands. steve? >> i think i'm going to hold back on the casino stocks. purely on a technical play. i think can you make some money short term as we just spoke about before. if it's going to move with the general market, i think you can make a couple points on the way up. but besides that, you have to hold back. >> all right. pop here for the ruble. >> you see the ruble and when it's round, you're showing the consumer the best way to buy that. >> and a pop for harry potter. taking in $400 million worldwide in the first five days in theaters. sixth installment is the top performing potter flick ever conjuring up $80 million in the u.s. this weekend alone. "harry potter and the half blood prince" is magic. it past the $1 billion market in ticket sales for the ninth year in a row. >> how many times you have seen that? >> i have never seen one of the movies. >> all right.
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we're in the thick of enks season. so a lot of after hours action. boston scientific, the eps 20 cents versus the 13 cents estimate. the stock is rising in the after hours session. take a look at shares of legg mason. beat in the fiscal first quarter amid a 33% drop in operating costs. assets under management this is a key here. increasing slightly. so we have the stock up by 6%. and let's take a quick check on texas instruments. pretty good news although did it have a nice rise during the session on the back of an upgrade out of jeffries. price target raised out of bear in general. positive sentiment about the chip sector. we're seeing it fall in the after hours session. moving on, time now to take your position. all eyes on apple tomorrow. the hot stock is up almost 80% this year and strong sales of the iphone and mac. so apple keeps it going. top ranked analyst from morgue an keegan joins us on the fast line. big question here, margins. they cut prices.
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how it is going to impact the quarterer? >> i think they guided for that already in the margins. there was nothing surprising they did relative to their internal expectations. and frank lit currency moved in their direction this quarter. and even though there were some component prices that increase in the quarter, it was nothing that was severe enough, i think, to upset the internal plans. >> are they going to do what they always do? beat in terms of the estimates for the quarter but guide lower? >> you got it. >> that was easy. >> it's working. >> so if it's that predictable, what will the stock do and what do you recommend people do tomorrow during the session? >> you know, my best guess is the stock will trade off a bit for a couple days and people will figure out the september guidance is ridiculously low. i think there is a lot of great reasons to own this stock heading into the back half of the year. you've got new operating system coming out which usually helps out the mack line. you have cameras being built into the ipod line. it is unlikely to be in the back half of this year as the first half of this year.
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>> based upon the numbers you're looking at, how is this going to affect the palm and research in motion? they had a scorching run. how are they going to keet with apple and the iphone and all the rest? >> i think, you know, the benefits that research in motion has specifically is all the carriers that have to combat the iphone are generally forced to subsidized and promote black berry. until the iphone really expands the distribution beyond at&t and other carriers, the iphone is a positive for blackberry. it won't be forever. i think in the near term blackberry turns are likely to get stronger as we come to the back half of the year and they launch a couple of real exciting devices. >> tavis, good to talk to you. tavit mccourt. >> we've been talking about the dramatic reversal they made. i stayed long on. that i believe that rim is a beneficiary of that corporate customer that april sl not necessarily going to see. having gotten the iphone myself,
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i still see you need to have your blackberry that you get from rim right now. >> it is a mistake that rim is going much hard near the consumer space with the launch of the latest blackberry? >> they have a model right now that is working. everyone is getting so competitive right now in this environment. i don't know necessarily that rimm should be moving so far away from what you said is clearly working for them right now. i think this, rimm heading into earnings tomorrow for apriliple take some off the table. >> do you think rimm that, was an overall market trend going higher, the space that it's in or just looking forward to telephone? you know, are we going to see something out of, you know, telephone? >> there is also which is a topic of conversation for another time this mean reversion trade. a lot of the tech stocks right now fall into that. apple might be one of them being up so much. >> what do you do with that? >> it comes down to how many mac sales. everybody moved the estimates up to 2.5 million. this stock has more room to the upside. i like it right now. i can tell you this the options
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markets, they're pricing a small move and a volatility is the lowest i have seen in apple in a really long time. so anyone wanting to own apple, buy puts to protect yourself. >> that is partly what concerns me about apple is the fact that people are not ready to pop this thing. >> more "fast money" next. popul. right now, 1.5 million people are on a conference call. 750,000 wish they weren't. - ( phones chirping ) - construction workers are making 244,000 nextel direct connect calls. 1 million people are responding to an email. - 151 accidentally hit "reply all." - ( foghorn blows ) that's happening now. america's most dependable 3g network bringing you the first wireless 4g network. - sprint. the now network. - ( whoosh sound ) deaf, hard of hearing and people with speech disabilities access www.sprintrelay.com.
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our steve grasso had a unique window into where cash is headed before it moves into the market. steve, looks like you're saying that money is playing catch up. >> the money is playing catch up. if you look at what's been going on, one of the things we can't figure out in this marketplace, you can't figure out the financials. no one can figure out the materials. so what have people been doing? they look at the market and get surprised with the 7% move. they say there is exposure to this. they dump it into an etf. they do the home work on a micro level when the market settles in. that's what i've seen. i've seen the biggest -- look at the returns since last monday. >> right. that seems like the smart money may not than smart. >> it's in. there it's smart. look at it this way, it's making sure that it's par taking in it. so if you have money with a mutual fund, you want to see them par take in it. unfortunately, you don't want that quick maneuver from a hedge fund all the time, right? the volatility kills a lot of people. so you don't want to be buying and selling every day. you don't want that turn rate. you don't want that turn over.
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>> right. average investor, what do you do? >> you have to be looking for new stuff on the horizon. technology is going to still lead. that's when we need it to lead. we'll look at big pharma and other name coming in and the caveat is this health care bill. fit doesn't pass, you're going to see a lot of money going there. it has great balance sheet, the same as with tech. >> all right. we want to take a couple moments out here to welcome two new traders to the floor. >> there they are. that is john on the left and luke on the right. they were born june 12th on their dad's birthday. and what was june 12th up until today? the highest level in '09. the grassos have a good job at picking tops. >> we'll see. all right. final trade up next.
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time for the final trade? >> nokia. >> xy. >> jp? >> amazon. >> dow chemical. >> i'm melissa lee. thank you for watching. we'll see you back here at 5:00 p.m. eastern time for more "fast money" on cmbc. you really need it these days. how come? well if you're hurt and can't work it pays you cash... yeah to help with everyday bills like gas, the mortgage... ...and groceries. it's like insurance for daily living. so...what's it called? uhhhhh aflaaac!!!! oh yeah! that's it! aflac. we've got you under our wing.
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i'm jim cramer. welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game! >> they're nuts! they're nuts! they know nothing! >> i always have to say this is a bull market summary. >> "mad money" -- you can't afford to miss it. >> welcome to "mad money." welcome to kramer. other people want to make friends, i want to make you money. it's my job is not just to entertain you like i'm doing right now. it's to educate you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc! all right. safety finished dead last today. a day when the dow was up 104 points. as buyers put their horse blinkers on and jump the gun to buy the big metal bending cyclicals, that's right, all those companies that sell the
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necessities were tossed out. composted, dumped, buried in a stench infested sea gull dominated landfill. you can smell it. you sold it. we were throwing fistfuls of dollars and a few dollars more at the steels, irons, coppers, retailers, machinery companies, the rails. the rails for heaven's sake. the rails. i mean wait a second. the companies that transport real goods -- >> that was easy. >> from place to place? >> that was easy. >> like cars and lumber and coal? aren't these companies doing awfully -- aren't you inundated yourself with negativity when you get with your friends? aren't you amazed at how awful things really are? can you go a day without someone whispering to you that nothing's improved in your business
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