more than 5 million buys, mainly demand for boxing and wrestling. they sell out and remain a hot commodity. seats to the marquee ufc 100 in july 2009 went in a matter of minutes and range from $500 to $40,000 a piece in the secondary market. evidence that the ufc is weathering the economic downturn pretty well. >> we've been through the mother of all recessions. clearly. >> how much are you guys hurt by that? >> you know what? we are up year over year in every category, revenues, profits, pay-per-view, live gate, international media cells, sponsorship everywhere. the question is without the recession where would our business be? >> looks good. gin side the growing fight league tonight, ultimate fighting "fifthful of dollars." that's cnbc tonight at 10:00 p.m. and 1:00 a.m. eastern. before we go, i want to take

a quick tour of the markets today on wall street. we keep saying resilience is the name of the game,down down .3%. the s&p down .5%. poor five-year treasury options, strong dollar, drop in crude oil. 5% drop in the shanghai. in spite of that we are looking at a market that's essentially flat on the session. keep an eye tomorrow on the seven-year option. thanks so much for watching. i will see you on "the call" tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. eastern. have a great night. revenue and shares fail to meet expectations for symantec. hartford financial gains ground up 4% after the bell. earnings are well above wall street's forecast. crude oil is down over 6% following below $63 a barrel.

that's cnbc.com news now. "fast money" with rick santelli starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite, this is "fast money." fast, "fast money." rick santelli in for melissa lee on assignment. the market losing some steam today following three important features. the big sell-off in the china stock market. we have a dive in oil prices. and in my own backyard, a supply hiccup in the five-year options. it wasn't pretty. what's the word on the street? peace. >> first, are you just fantastic. you make the world that's so confusing to the rest of using with the bond world, something we can half-way understand. fantastic to have you here. 20 years experience on the floor. >> did he teach you everything

you know? >> he did. absolutely. >> the market is the greatest rubik's cube and we all love and we want you to love how we try to figure out to give you a few bucks. >> the folks at the billy goat all say hello. >> billy goat? >> they can't wait for ricky to get back into chicago. back to the markets for a second, we bounced yesterday, we hit that 968 level. we hit it again, bounced again. late day surge, very impressive. the volatility index we talk about every day has been creeping higher but the creeping higher has all been up-side call speculation. that's probably what's holding us here. we keep expecting the sell-off. protection is there holding people away from having to sell those stocks. they have protection in place. the s&p, the banks, and you continue to see every day balance. >> let's talk about the 968 level. why are we holding there? july 23rd. look at this chart. july 23rd you had chart of the

day, rick. you had a breakout above the june highs at 953 in the september s&p. on july 23rd rally significantly, close at 969. market makes a new high and it is consolidating the gains above that 969 level. we haven't closed back below that level since july 23rd. we have digested a tremendous amount of negative news over the last three, four days. >> go back to early in the night when a lot of us were sleeping. think a lot of this started when china started to turn over for the first time, shanghai down 5% last night. there's concern the lending that's been a big part -- >> down 7.5% before coming back. china's a big story here. we'll talk about it more but that had a big impact this morning. >> it all comes down to the trade. i think the market, even if you are ambivalent about the market, i think it is going down, but i understand what you're saying.

look at trading opportunities. karen sat in that seat yesterday, told you she was short borg-warner. we had an analyst on who had upgraded the stock. we sad it doesn't make sense. look at performance of bwa, down 10% after reporting at 1:30 this afternoon. those are opportunities in the marketplace. whether you think the market's going higher or lower. >> everybody at this table wanted to be what oil? short oil. there was a few bucks on that. >> rick, as we talk about this, it is and continues to be a trader's market. look at names that you might love. we have said you don't need to change anything in this market, it always gives you a second chance. copper trade's starting to feel a few cracks because of china. you start to see copper pull back, start to see the oil pull back. when you see the commodities pulling back you start to need to re-evaluate once again because you are waiting for an opportunity, soon that

opportunity's there. probably not yet but soon. >> most of the money today was made on the short side. listen, the oil, resource names, were all over today. the theme was the dollar was strong and that knocked the legs right underneath this commodity streak. oil obliterated, down $4 today. a rising dollar, rising inventories, all in the face of oil. but the trade going forward -- here what you got to think about. the correlation between the s&p and oil is no longer one. it's changing. what that means is, oil doesn't necessarily have to go higher for the s&p to rally. that's a good thing. >> i urge everybody to read that opinion piece in the journal about the politics of the cftc. it is an opinion piece and somewhat enlightening. i want to go to a chart. the oil chart. i love playing with this gizmo. why is this an interesting chart? because there is a couple things i used to like to do when i was a technician. you see that? that's the last time we had a little bit of congestion with a spike. it kind of goes sideways here.

notice that the 50% is above the market. the way this thing's coming back, i would say that it is below key levels. it is in a sell rally mode. but ultimately where's the support going to be? i'm going to talk to my friends. >> look at what oil's done. it made the move to 38. we pushed up to 72, 73. traded back down to 58. this last push we couldn't get up to $70. i think we're headed sub-60 again. that's an aggressive trade, i think it works, but watch all oil services. they'll get crushed. they did. if you're buying these stocks on dips thinking you are picking a bottom, i think you are a little early. >> keep one thing in mind in terms of a price point in oil. obama came in, $72 for oil, hasn't gotten above the level that obama came in at. >> the thing with oil, i feel confident it will hold the 50-day. i think there are trades in

here. conco today a perfect example. when oil's down, you go after the guys who are most leverred. we knew reported earnings were going to be bad. they made $660 million last year, they lost $53 million. a tough story. good news was their investment in russia. emerging markets, china, the emerging market oils are as cop as any of the names out there. some oils are coming up dry. petro china, be carol. >> the last thing on this whole oil trade, those utilities really bounced late in the day. i think people are looking at some of those names, they're looking at them saying, look, this is the one area where i can get great dividend yield. they can still get 3%, 4%, 6% dividend deals. people are looking at utility names, not as tied in to the oil right now.

they reversed the last hour of the day almost every one of those stock moved to the up side. trading around the globe, after that shanghai index stumbled, ultimately 5%, industrial names suffered, caterpillar and alcoa trading lower. >> let's understand why it sold off very quickly. people are concerned the bank lending in china is rumored to be cut back to a third of that. it means that a lot of guys in the commodities space, a lot of buying of copper and aluminum inventories they've been stockpiling, if that's going to change, that's at risk. that affects everybody. it has also affected the dollar. that's the reason we came in here when we are talking about china, that's what you have to be careful about. with alcoa, we know their production and numbers are down. i think aluminum started a rally. i look to the housing market. everybody's told us, including the numbers, this is stabilized. >> look at steel. we talked about u.s. steel

yesterday. we said that the goldman upgrade here was awful, the timing. look at the stocks today, 7%. granted china has a lot to do with this. we'll talk about it gen. goldman upgrade, they're late to the party. >> when you talk about china we oftentimes talk about the fxi. the fxp is an ultra short play over there. if you think there is a little bit more room to this china pullback we've seen a little bit of the armor starting to take a few shots. it is starting to pull back a little bit. last night obviously. today. we'll see what happens overnight. september 10 calls today. you'll get double the short to the up side. september 10 calls an amazing amount of activity out there. very cheap. volatility's not very high right now. great opportunity if you think china's got a few -- >> i like that trade. >> we talked in march about

china. their stimulus package. that's the package. fiscal policy, i know you love to follow that stuff. it's all about china. if they begin to take away the punch bowl, that will be problematic for economic growth globally. china right now is basically the american consumer's bank. >> i'll stop everybody right here. there's all the things that they can slow this down with. my call, i don't think china's going to step in here. there is a lot of civil issues going on in china. i think maybe they'll keep this parade running a little bit longer. >> rick, how do you start to bring rates, cut rates back when you have negative cpi? there is no way they can put any more pressure on rates. i agree we hold on to this. watch pmi thursday night, friday morning. this number comes out late. friday morning will tell you whether this rally is still alive. >> you stay up, watch it for us and let us know. >> the big tech story today.

microsoft finally, finally strikes a search deal with yahoo!. yahoo!. mark? >> rick, i'll tell you what. it's unbelievable, finally it has happened. tell me what your thoughts are. >> biggest winner here appears to be microsoft. they've been trying to get into internet advertising and search. this is the only way for them to do it. they got deal at a decent price. they're the obvious winner. yahoo! should have don't more out of this deal. they didn't. >> why doesn't yahoo! get an up-front payment or something to pay them for this technology that microsoft now gets to run off with and really get everything they wanted. >> that's the burning question of the day. they tried to go down the middle. a year ago they could have outsourced everything and got the up-front payment. this year they're outsourcing part of it with the belief

they're hedging themselves and could maybe come back in if they need to as a search player five to ten years down the road. we think that's risky and they should have gotten a bigger payment. >> how about the online property? we think the online properties is our area of expertise where we'll see the explosion. do you agree with carl bartz? >> yahoo!'s deepest competitive modes are in their display advertising business. 800-pound gorilla is search in already known. it's google. display advertising is yahoo!'s strength. that's where they're devoting most of their assets. we just think they should have gotten more for this search deal. >> the stock went from $15 to $25. this quarter was lousy, missing revenues by over $1 billion. where does the stock go? >> i am going to say valuation is fair, trading at five times

cash flow. that's at the lower end of the traditional media companies. there is no near-term catalysts. obviously there are people in this looking for a good deal. yahoo! had a chance, they disappoint there had. it is hard to see this stock moving near-term. it should bounce along around $15. >> mark mahaney, thank you. rick tomorrow, final analyst meeting for microsoft. also that $1 billion in revenue they were light last week, they just made it back up by not having to give it to yahoo!. morgan stanley has a big story. goldman sachs seems to be in every headline. they were down itself. also jpmorgan. >> you cut morgan stanley, goldman sachs, you're kind of cutting yourself. you're effectively taking down the same business model which we think is a heavy trading model. in morgan stanley case, think more to asset management than goldman sachs. aside from the risk they didn't take in the first half with the

government's money the stock's better positioned to perper pomp in lo . >> morgan stanley versus goldman sachs, back in '07 mortgage securities, derivatives, got completely obliterated. goldman sachs dodged that bullet. morgan stanley, goldman sachs, very light. >> nobody trades like goldman sachs. you can only compare them so much. but goldman is clearly head and shoulders above everyone else. jeffries. traded up to $22. they raised estimates. we said get out. stock trade is down to $17.50. now back to $23. stocks going to have trouble here. no reason to chase it. this is the real story, jef, to watch. gets down to $18.50, $19, jump in. >> you look at bank of america stock, this has been going up,

up, up while the other big names are pulling back. interesting thing about bank of america they'll write off about $40 billion. right now they presently -- normally they trade around 11 times earnings. they're trading five times next year earnings if this analyst is right. this analyst just like meredith whitney a year ago went cautionary on the financials. you got to like what's going on right now for bank of america. write-offs are huge but going forward -- >> all my buddies are texting me today, they were talking about that offering, ten-year offering, the coupon. maybe it's also look at debt side. let's go outside stock. lease demand in the five-year auction, it was a "d" for dog. put a tail on that auction and call it lasscy! >> it is all about indirect bidders. we nedden is tral banks to step forward.

we talked about the this before the show. august 7th you'll get unemployment. what follows that? august 11th, august 12th, august 13th. a lot of supply coming in. from august 7th to august 14th it is a tough week of sledding. >> what's interesting, we speak of goldman when we speak of the treasury market, they said u.s. treasury funding will be much less of expected because of financial recovery is under way. they said it is going to be 28% less at $2.9 trillion. that's very good news. one of the reasons people are starting to think between paying back t.a.r.p., the dollar has more room to run. >> that's a good point. fact that the doll lar rallies is interesting. >> these auctions are going sour. twos and five supposed to be the lay-ups. the five-year's become the new fulcrum of the yield curve. it is not like being on the end

of the teeter-totter. should supply become an issue, when the good ones, easy ones aren't good. not a bit nervous. it is time for bull market or bs. take a listen. >> -- on things like corporate profitability can continue to be driven just by cost cutting. that's not true. you need revenue growth. investment guides, look at the rally in equity especially what happened in july. you get a feeling that the equity market is now on a sugar high. >> i tell you what, i don't know that we agree with the sugar or not but i think we all kind of do. hey, john from monster.com, the monster himself. you know what? i like your lollipop. >> i think you need a bigger one. >> did you say you liked his lollipop? >> yeah, that sounds wrong. >> all right, that's it.

john, what do you think? let's talk about this. mohammed el-erian, what's your thought? >> because i'm standing in your spot, i got to use props. that's why i have this sucker. i also have what i prefer, the energy drink. monster of course is my brand. but here's what's going on here. el-erian's right that the market is on a sugar high, though a lot of doctors will tell you the sugar highs aren't even real, that you don't really get a sugar high, it doesn't even happen. but since i've got two kids, i can tell you, it does happen. they go running around in circles. all of a sudden it is nothing but tears. we hope that doesn't happen with the stock market here. i'm thinking there are so many of us that are looking for the correction that guy was talking about. i do believe that that is in the offing. >> there is also all about timing. as every trader knows, you could be logical, nail it. but what if the next five months the market hoimdappens, thought

inventory and stock prices. >> you're in chicago. the concern i have is every july the smart traders go out there and they look at the october vics, october -- sorry. >> johnny, you see any type of buying in the october exploration? >> sure. we're seeing that exactly and that is still relatively cheap. it is a third of where it was last october, as you know, joe. i think people are just positioning themselves in case we do get a pop-up here in volatility. that would occur if we broke down through 970 for the downside. i don't know if we'll break seriously below that. i'm looking for more modest correction beneath that. but that could all change with these earnings that are coming our way. look at stocks like goodyear. we had unusual activity in this

one today. goodyear is a stock that's just gone like this. cooper tire, like this. there is a lot of those companies out there that are actually performing extremely well and were sold off so severely that even though i'm with el-erian that i think there is a sugar high going on, there could be so much of us looking for the correction that it just doesn't happen. >> nobody's smarter than el-erian on this. he's had a great call. how about the sugar low we had on the way down? the s&p is not expensive here. we talked about this last night. it is actually back to a place where it is supposed to be. talk about goodyear. ford is actually going to beef up production because of what we went through and the heart attack that led to the second quarter drying down or fourth quarter in inventories. fourth quarter production for industrials is going to be very strong. i don't know where we get this was all a big mirage because it is a big piece of licorice. >> you have to be very careful. because of the expiration cycle, you do not want to trade this. most people don't understand it. look at the sty, there is a lot

of different ways to play this and still be able to be involved in the volatility in the marketplace but not put yourself in those vix options. guess what? there's a lot more "fast money" coming up. you have to tune in to find out how to save your money in this very confusing time in the equity market. at 155 miles per hour, andy roddick

has the fastest serve in the history of professional tennis. so i've come to this court to challenge his speed. ...on the internet. i'll be using the 3g at&t laptopconnect card.

he won't so i can book travel plans faster, check my account balances faster. all on the go. i'm bill kurtis and i'm faster than andy roddick. (announcer) "switch to the nations fastest 3g network" "and get the at&t laptopconnect card for free".

welcome back to "fast money." of course we're live at the nasdaq marketsite. hey, the dollar's rebounding. from a very, very critical level, gold getting hit hard. maybe it is just the antidollar trade. with us now, commodities guru denn d dennis gart man.

>> until the grain markets all made new lows, suddenly it is as if there was no bids anywhere, they took gold down $20 yesterday. they continue to take it down today. hard for gold to do anything other than go down when crude oil's falling $4.50 a barrel. >> as much as gold ss antidollar, i think it's almost ramped up exponentially when the dollar bounces from these levels it can't get through, whether it is december of last year, june of this year, day before yesterday, boom, it's up. >> it can't get through there. but the question is do you think gold when we go back to the fundamental story at least where we equate gold with inflation, what's there for you on this and what's there for you on production which is down globally. there really could be a supply issue if central banks are buying. >> we'll see what happens. it will be interesting to see if the gold begins to narrow. production in china is down.

production in south africa is down. production here in the united states is down. even in canada it is down a little bit. we could get gold to go down to $915, $920 without too much difficulty. it is a big consolidation, big for the charters out there high triangle that's been formed over the course of the past year and a half. but is selling it at $1,000. >> you going to pull back commodities? i agree. give me the option here. you got gold, copper, oil. which one do i want to buy? >> i'd rather buy copper than gold. i'd rather by copper than crude oil. i think crude oil has a ways to go down. >> dennis, on that same topic -- i think the call as well on the copper. at what level do we like copper? most people won't trade copper they'll trade the freeport. at what point do you like freeport mac? it just made today's pull-back

off of those highs. where is the level you'd like to re-enter? >> if they take it down another $2, i'll be a buyer for my fund, for myself. give me another $2 on the downside and i'll by freeport. i find myself using freeport more often than i use the copper futures. i'd rather own freeport. like the dividends. take freeport down another $2. you have me very interested. >> dennis, you got a view on the s&p here? >> i'm a little bit short. not dramatically so but i think we've gotten a little top-heavy. i think there is very little insider buying, enough new supply coming at us. i went home a little bit short in the operative words here are "a little bit." >> dennis, it is a pleasure to talk to you. you are the commodity man. now it is time to take your position on disney. the mouse house reporting tomorrow after the bell. traders looking at the margin of the theme parks. profits and this little

itty-bitty film called "up" which just happened to gross over $300 million worldwide. i have two high school daughters. the really cool. they're not going to go see the animated cartoons, are they? are you kidding? listen, i used to go to the drive-in. not only that, i go in 50-year-old cars. i had all the teenagers in there seeing the movie for the second time. what a great flick. >> i'm with you! >> what do you think, pete? >> i'm durous what you think more than myself. disney's been on a kalt pull the to the up side. >> david bank managing director of capital markets, rbc capital markets will tell us the story. >> first i didn't get any of the sugar so i'm going to have a little bit lower energy than you. but in short, i guess the answer is we have relatively good visibility into the cable business. espn's a very large part of this business that people don't realize. we have pretty decent visibility into the broadcasting business.

much more divvies ability into the parks business where they've cut costs, traffic has been up. but it is hard to know how much money people have been spending. the way we look at the stock is, we're at 52 cents, 1 penny above consensus. putting our money where our mouth is. but the reality disney of all the diversified media conglomerates is the one with the absolute least amount of toxic assets. the reason this stock has been so strong from a secular perspective, pressures on disney have been cyclical as opposed to every other diversified media conglomerate where you have newspapers, television, local media. this company is all cyclical. that's why the stock's been so strong regardless of what happens on earnings. >> the disney channel has been big but i was understand things at espn this quarter wasn't going so well. do you factor that in? i can understand the valuation at disney but it's also had a pretty big run. what do you think of the stock?

>> i think if you look for leverage to a cyclical discovery in diversified media this has to be your best play. it's definitely run but since 1982, the company has not traded below 12 times earnings, with the exception of the middle of the crisis. right? right now on a calendar year '10 basis on our estimates, this stock is going do something like $1.90, low 1.90s. you talk about 13, 14 times earnings. historical, trough earnings, trough multiple. it is still pretty attractive. >> but more importantly, where does that trend end? we know they have recovered well and their business is fairly insulated. espn's doing a great job but again back to the stock price. i see it around $26 here, all-time high at the peak of the market was $33. if you're looking at the stock in an earnings perspective, i wonder what you think the forward looking guidance is. >> the company doesn't guide. that's one huge challenge. we'll be looking to tone. we expect to hear from them the

same tone we've heard from everybody else which is stability, modest sequential improvements. >> the story on this, rick, is right now valuation on disney is right on target looking forward to 2010. how do you get it now north of $30? besides me continually taking my kids there which we're supposed to go again. i love disney. but up here at $25, $26 you got to say to yourself how does it get north of $30? the plan looks like it is going to be online content. he understands the model of how to put your business on the web. he's trying to move to that model. if he succeeds, yes, it goes above $30. >> target price. what do you have for a target price? we know it trades around $26. what's your target price? >> based on the fundamentals today, our published price target is actually $27. but that said, i think that we roll the price target forward when we get the next -- get closer to 2010.

>> can you see $33? >> i think it is going to be tough to get above there. >> i like disney, i like their movies. turn to under-the-radar earnings trade. dow set to report tomorrow morning. pete? >> the chemical stocks have had an unbelievable run. we talked about at the halftime report today. dow will report tomorrow. dow's one of those that's gone up three fold. is there anything left in the tank? my thought is their numbers will probably produce something pretty strong but i think this is a name where you can actually wait for the earnings to come out, wait for that pullback, maybe a little bit of relief from the folks who produced, and that's your opportunity. >> these guys are going to make $2.75 this year, $3.62 this year. they trade at 13 times forward earnings. this company's cheap on valuati valuation. stocks had a big run.

that's one you want to own. >> stabilizing demand, the market's priced it. watch basf tomorrow germany. they'll tell you what's going on with demand going forward. guess what? more "fast money" coming up next.

finally, good news for people with type 2 diabetes or at risk for diabetes. introducing new nutrisystem d, the clinically tested program for losing weight and reducing blood sugar. hi i'm mike, and i lost 100 pounds on nutrisystem d when i was first diagnosed with diabetes, that first step was more like a giant leap. till i discovered nutrisystem d. in a clinical study people on nutrisystem d lost 16 times more weight and reduced their blood sugar 5 times more than those on a hospital-directed plan. plus a1c was reduced .9%. choose from over 140 menu options, there is no counting carbs, calories or points. i lost 100 lbs. and lowered my blood sugar level. nutrisystem d changed my life. mike is one of many who have lost weight and controlled their diabetes with new nutrisystem d.

backed by 35 years of research and low glycemic index science nutrisystem d works. satisfaction guaranteed or your money back! new! nutrisystem d. lose weight. live better. call or click today. she is the greatest thing ever. woman: one little smile, one little laugh. - honey bunny. - ( coos ) we would do anything for her. my name is kim bryant and my husband and i made a will on legalzoom. man: it was really easy to do. - ( blows raspberries ) - ( laughing ) robert shapiro: we created legalzoom to help you take care of the ones you love. go to legalzoom.com today and complete your will in minutes. at legalzoom.com we put the law on your side.

welcome back to "fast money." live at the nasdaq marketsite. i am having too much fun. let's get to some of the after-hours action. i like these thin markets. hartford financial out with earnings, stocks up 3% in the post-market. i even heard 4%. they beat earnings forecast big-time. break-even profits for the year sglp i'll break down hartford. got a half-hour left. tea party thing, that's unbelievable what went on. people are out there sending you tea. what has this been like?

tell us. come on. >> all i know is i have cartons, cases, tea all over the office. the weird thing is, i take my parents out on sundays when i can. i go in my flip-flops, my cut-off shorts. >> yeah, whatever. >> now people are buying me tea? >> how about you put together a little tea party right around here. what do you think? >> whatever you want. >> the tea parties are neat. i tell you why. it is just people trying to have their say in what's going on in the world today. it's involvement. that's a good thing. let's get back to hartford. >> projected forward they might break even or may even make a profit. that would shock the street a little bit. this stock has run into this earnings number. a lot of activity there out, stocks up 26% in the month. most of that in the last four or five trading days. you understand why the stock is not going up even faster today after that report. you still got to like what they

said. >> if you believe them, they said you'll make over $4 next year which puts their forward "p" around 3.5. this stock is ridiculously cheap. >> 40% of their holdings in their portfolio, corporate bonds. corporate bonds have done very, very well. >> their balance sheet's -- >> they shorted up. >> hold on. we got a fast message from george. george bush? >> he calls you the great santelli but he thinks your new moniker should be the "e" newman rater. >> hey, george, i like that. time for today's "pops and drops." the diamonds and dogs of the day. massey energy. >> they crushed those numbers today. all of that gives them a pop.

they pulled back, big pop. >> arcelormittal. >> coca-cola enterprise pops. it really pops. 3%. >> they retain their u.s. pricing power. we had the ceo on our show. these ceos keep coming on our show. you know what happens? their stock price goes up. >> then we should invite all of our buy recommendations back for encore performances. >> monster second quarter. management fees up, this stock is the highest level since october. ladard. >> daimler. >> improvement in operating profit. they put in much better numbers than expected. these guys are getting a huge

benefit from cash for clunkers which started. >> that was a pop 3%. mooney's drops 8%. >> really? i think it should drop a lot more than 8%. >> i think there is a lot of agreement on that one. royal caribbean cruises a drop, 15%. >> second quarter loss of 16 cents. should be no surprise here, this stock got popular around $17 a couple time. i think it goes a lot lower here, probably $11. >> dad, if you're watching, i'm telling you what, just pretend none of this is coming out of my mouth, but it is chicago. you have to like the chicago teams but i come from a long line of cubs fans. pitcher mark buehrhle. absolutely amazing. >> that is a very difficult

record. one of the best in sports. >> go sox! i gotta love those sox. >> lots more "fast money" coming up. oof!

i hope he has that insurance. aflac! you really need it these days. how come? well if you're hurt and can't work it pays you cash... yeah to help with everyday bills like gas, the mortgage... ...and groceries. it's like insurance for daily living. so...what's it called? uhhhhh aflaaac!!!! oh yeah! that's it! aflac. we've got you under our wing. a-a-a-aflaaac!

money." my old pal steve leisman. we're no stranger to a good old-fashioned street fight. take a listen. >> you're going to come up with excuses to break rules? break the law? you saw like richard nixon! >> if you want to blow a gas get on that, rick, blow it on someone else. >> don't open your mouth an say dumb things. >> not now. >> rick, get out of the pitch, rick. >> i'm not in the pitch. think you're in the pits. i'm not talking about the trading pits.

>> i can argue with your illusion of what you think reality should be. right now i'm starting with your illusion. >> he's back now to go head-to-head, toe-to-toe with me on the fed's so-called exit strategy. it might say "exit" over the door but there's no handle! out of record-low interest rates, steve, seriously, welcome to "fast money." what do you think, steve? is there really a chance they'll thread the needle, buddy? >> i have to tell you, rick, when i look at the numbers, they've gotten it right. i take a look at the fed's balance sheet, they were up as high and $2.3 trillion, $2.4 trillion. that's not the chart we requested because that's through 11/6/08. that's not even the one i asked for. did you rig this for me, rick? >> all i can tell you is at the bottom of the sea there is a bunch of sunk are ships and chart rooms and they're filled with charts. >> the charts will tell you we've had a half a trill dollar

move where central banks swaps have run off just like the fed said they would. very have increased to half a trillion when it comes to mortgage-backed securities. on your show you shouldn't interrupt me because you are the host today. >> host with the most. steve, you think their balance sheet -- i know it's been flat-lining, it is coming off a bit. do you think they'll ramp it up some more? >> yeah, we heard today there was actually news today who said it is going to go to 2.5%. you see that very low line there, that's where they'll finance legacy cmbf, that's the bottom one. $30 billion. very minor. that could ramp up to another half a trillion. >> there is legacy assets which with really toxic. there is legacy politicians. we won't go there. okay, let's talk. >> legacy bond traders. >> i'm coming at this strictly

as a trader. concern i have, we're about to move into august. what's going to happen with ben bernanke? he is up in january. what gives here? >> all i can tell you is what the pool was on the plane with tim geithner among the reporters. i heard 3-1 in favor of re-appointment. i've heard nobody else say anything. i think it is going to be tough for obama to put somebody else in there. anybody else is seen as more political than bernanke is. >> steve, what indicator is the most important for them to think about starting to -- >> they always tell me it is not a single indicator. i think if you see a cpi come up, one thing i look at, i remember hearing one central bank guy tell mefy saw a point rise or whole percentage point rise in the five-year inflation expectation, i would raise interest rates tomorrow. expectations are an absolute key for the fed, and anything that tells them down the curve that things are going to get much

hotter when it comes to inflation, that's going to force their hand whenever that is. i think you have to make a bet on the politics of this. i think everybody wants to raise it gradually or take the accommodation away gradually. if they're forced to move you have to make a bet as to whether or not they will. >> that's the question. pulling liquidity out of the market, are you comfortable there is a mechanism in place they can deploy efficiently if they had to do it right now? >> first, there is an automatic mechanism in some of the programs. okay? it is the good and bad times but bad and good times. idea that some of these rates are set to run off naturally because they are no longer attractive when the market comes back. that's why the commercial paper part of the balance sheet has run off. that's why the central bank swap exchange have run off, because it didn't pay for people to come to the central bank anymore. that's a piece of it. the question becomes the other stuff that's not automatic. i would like to see them step forward and start raising some of these rates to put the market on notice that all is not free forever. i think maybe we can end there,

because rick and i are probably in agreement on that. >> we are in agreement. steve -- >> that's boring. >> -- i'm in a pretty good mood tonight but i'll be a little surly in the morning because i'm staying in new york another day. get ready. our thanks to the man, steve leisman. more "fast money" on the way.ow . population: 49 million. right now 1.2 million people are on sprint mobile broadband. 31 are streaming a sales conference from the road. eight are wearing bathrobes. two... less. - 154 people are tracking shipments on a train. - ( train whistles ) 33 are im'ing on a ferry. and 1300 are secretly checking email... - on a vacation. - hmm? ( groans ) that's happening now. america's most dependable 3g network. bringing you the first and only wireless 4g network. sprint. the now network. deaf, hard of hearing and people with speech disabilities access www.sprintrelay.com.

the blue dog democrats announcing a deal on health care. i'd say it was around just before 1:00 p.m.? let's look at the united health chart here what i find interesting, i always like to see what happened in the market. now there's your move but it is always economy is a scale. what you need to really notice is that chart like all computers generate it, they want to exaggerate it. it wasn't a huge move. this market i would think would have a bigger move if there was some substance to this story. are we seeing the legislation or the market's perception that there is a big program on the way? what do you think? >> i think there is still a lot of debate going on. i think because people haven't really made up their minds yet. an analyst the other night gave

us a great blueprint that somewhere there is going to be enough give that it is probably going to be a positive for the unhs of the world. that's why we're seeing a little bit of that move to the up side. i think that's why it is not as volatile. people are starting to gav ta i gravitate. something is going to be good for this sector. >> the obama administration is a wild card but unh still at these levels is great. hard to chase but i like unh. >> they guys don't have the votes, they need to move the bill through. that's the reaction. >> this conversation isn't over. why? don't miss the special on health care. we'll have the health care summit on "squawk box" tomorrow at 8:00 a.m. your final trade after break.

finally, good news for people with type 2 diabetes or at risk for diabetes. introducing new nutrisystem d, the clinically tested program for losing weight and reducing blood sugar. hi i'm mike, and i lost 100 pounds on nutrisystem d when i was first diagnosed with diabetes, that first step was more like a giant leap. till i discovered nutrisystem d. in a clinical study people on nutrisystem d lost 16 times more weight and reduced their blood sugar 5 times more than those on a hospital-directed plan. plus a1c was reduced .9%.

choose from over 140 menu options, there is no counting carbs, calories or points. i lost 100 lbs. and lowered my blood sugar level. nutrisystem d changed my life. mike is one of many who have lost weight and controlled their diabetes with new nutrisystem d. backed by 35 years of research and low glycemic index science nutrisystem d works. satisfaction guaranteed or your money back! new! nutrisystem d. lose weight. live better. call or click today.

welcome back to "fast money." live from the nasdaq. hey, tonight on my buddy larry kudlow's report show, 7:00 eastern, cftc chairman is on.

i told you about that editorial. tonight at 7:00, don't miss it. is there a gong or something? time for "the final trade." >> before we go to "the final trade," you've been here two nights. it is not easy to be in that seat you've done. really, thanks for coming on. >> it is nice to have a guy that can really give us trading strategies. i'm a good waltzer but not good at the tango. >> all right. short-term emerging market oils look questionable. pbr. >> what they said was impressive. they'll make a lot of money. hig. >> nike found the bottom around $50. you buy it here. >> they've been red hot. metlife had an unbelievable amount of activity today. stocks had a hard time getting through 35. if it does, bada bing. >> i'm rick santelli.

more "fast money" at midnight. erin burnett is going to be hosting along with former new york governor eliot spitzer. have a great night. undefeated professional boxer floyd "money" mayweather has the fastest hands boxing has ever seen. so i've come to this ring to see who's faster...