tv Mad Money CNBC July 30, 2009 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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i'm jim cramer. and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game! >> they're going out of business, and they're nuts, they're nuts! they know nothing? "mad money." you can't afford to miss it. >> i'm jim cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends. i just want more days like today. my job is not just to educate but to entertain. so call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. what a fabulous rally! days like this one are why we stay in the game. any time the dow closes up 84
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points, the s&p 500 advances 13, i record it as a day to celebrate. that's right. i think it's time to break out the champagne, drink a toast to this beautiful, dull market. one pace away from the best july since '39, which happens to be a good day for dom perignon which is how i first pronounced it 20 years ago. anyway, there are many people who suggest that this bull's days are numbered. that's one of the tough ones. anyway, to argue that the positive action we've seen since the bottom in march is proof that the good times are almost over, and the market is about to take a nose dive! is there a case?
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ever since the bottom in march, the market has been following the exact same course. get ready, because this is going to be really scary. the exact same course in the wake of the great crash of '29. they tell you the similarities so far are uncanny. take a look. as of yesterday's close, the dow goes up 46%, okay? in the 145 days. 46, 145 days since the bottom of march 6. you got that? got that figure? now, you know that in 1929 and '30, from november 13th to april 17th, the dow rallied -- are you ready? -- 46% in 147 days. what's so ominous about this
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parallel? well, the rally in '29 and '30 is what was called a dead cat bounce. see this rally in '29 and '30? this was called a dead cat bounce, a temporary move before the market once again resumed its brutal downward trend. from the close on april 17th of 1930, it took over two years for the market to bottom. and that only happened after the dow declined -- are you ready -- 85%. right from here, the dow went down 85%. according to this depression, today is april 16 of 1930. the rally we've seen since march has been nothing more than a climera, and anyone who doesn't sell is about to get steamrolled. sound scary? scared a lot of people today. scared a lot of people out of
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there, that's why it sold off at the end of the day. here's the thing, though. this isn't early 1930, it's nothing like early 1930, and there's nothing to think we'll start mirroring the trajectory of the market during the early years of the great depression just because the market has followed the great course so far, even as it seems uncanny. the people saying it's 1930 are the same ones who have been saying the rally is fake all along. these are the people that seem to look for reasons not to buy because they're so certain. and when they can't find good reasons, they look for bad ones . instead of changing their minds, they think changing their minds are inconsistent and therefore wrong. to me the reason people are using this chart argument, you
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know what it says to me? it says to me that they've run out of ammo. instead of saying the market will tank because the fundamentals will bad like it was in the great depression, they're saying because they have these similarities, therefore, the fundamentals must be bad. i regard that as backwards logic. so what if the trajectory looks the same and virtually everything else that matters is different? to believe it's analogous to 1930, you have to think the worst is ahead of us, not behind us. the market tanked back then because bad things kept happening. in 1930, the bank had yet to collapse. today we've already worked through the most dangerous aspects of our financial crisis, and nobody honestly believes the system is still in jeopardy. we already had gm, we already had chrysler, we already had n
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fann fannie, we already had aig. right now the systemic risk has been taken off the table. in 1930, it was just getting on the table. even if we had a whole banking collapse, it would have been better than what happened in 1932 because we have the fdic around to guarantee deposits. from 1930 to 1932, the government was doing everything wrong. >> they know nothing! >> it was like they were trying to make things worse. thing pelosi times 1 million! the federal reserve was raising rates -- >> they know nothing! >> congress passed the holy terr terror, they were trying to balance the budget instead of borrowing money to stimulate the economy. all these things combined to make a bad situation worse. that was all going on right here, okay? it all came to fruition. now, i'm not saying the depression was avoidable. i am saying the stock market got crushed because the situation
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deteriorat deteriorated. maybe the dead cat bounce in 1929 and '30 could have been a real bull market rally if things had been done better, differently. maybe not. but certainly there was a chance to change that trajectory. either way, 1930 when we were slide sbug the great depression is not analogous to 2009 when we're heading out of one. don't forget, we've learned the lessons of the great depression, so we know what works and what doesn't. we have a fed chairman, ben bernanke, what studied the great depression and he's doing a great job of flooding the system with money. i hear nathan saying, well, that's really dangerous. come on, man, we've avoided the great depression. he has made money available so companies can get financing. once you get that fire rocking, you don't need to throw more gasoline on it. that's what he's going to do.
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1930 depression was still dropping like a rock. we hear dan da memico on our sh saying things are going up. in 1930, there wasn't any safety net. now we have social security, medicare, medicaid, unemployed insurers, food stamps. all of these soften the blow of any economic downturn. even though i believe we got the stimulus wrong, unlike our friends in china, and we got it wrong both in terms of quantity and quality, any stimulus is better than no stimulus. that was the state of things in 1930. don't forget, most of that money has yet to be spent, which is a plus in terms of the future being better than the present. look, the parallels between the market now and the market in '29 and '30 are incredible. the depiction, the percentages, the dates. it's true, but that's not a reason to think that stocks are going lower despite the fact i heard it 100 times in the last 24 hours.
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in fact, it's the absence of any reason. from 1920 to 1932, stocks got worse. do you really think 2011 is worse than 2008? i don't think so. here's the bottom line. ever since we started the rally in march, the bears have been telling us it's not for real. they've told us over and over again, stay negative. they say we're back in depression category. now they're pointing out the eerie parallels to 1930. but that's just mean because they're totally different. now what? i am not saying there is no such thing as a dead cat bounce. 20 years ago this week, my cat, named comag after a discount maker, got hit on a road in philadelphia, and she jumped like mad on the blacktop. forget local charts, focus on
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the fundamentals, because they, and not the pictorials, the golden chal is crossing we talked about the other day. none of that matters. what matters are the fundamentals. they tell you what the future will hold. and based on the fundamentals, the future seems down right bright to me right now. as bright as it was in 1930, thanks to ben bernanke and the great work he's done at the federal reserve. i say we take calls. let's go to greg in maryland. greg! >> caller: hey, jim. i want to give you a great big, fat, chesapeake bay ba-ba-ba-boo-yah! >> i'm going to give you the shores of the chesapeake bay boo-yah! and you have to tell me what beer that was. you don't even know what beer that was, do you? it wasn't the one the president had. that was national bohemian.
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>> natty bow. >> i got one for you. what beer tastes like coming home? >> caller: tastes like coming home? >> that was pittsburgh's iron city beer. >> caller: the reason we're covering the beer situation is because the white house is steeped in beer today. we go beyond that now and deal in stocks. >> caller: i got time for a real quick success story, jim. my wife and i started a home game about a year ago, and the past couple months things started going down and everything, and we lost a little bit of dough there, but after reading your book, "real money," it turned us around and we were able to come back, and thanks to your book, your show, and today's rally, we officially are out of the hole on that and we are on our way to making some
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real money, man. >> i say -- ♪ hallelujah . >> every day we try to come up with things to keep you in the game. >> caller: real quick, in your book, on "real money," page 115, i think it is, you got a chart that shows cyclical and see how they work in terms of gdp. i was wondering where you think we are on that chart right now and if, given today's climate, does that chart still hold? >> we did it in another book and i got a new one coming out. i had to redo it because this was written before brazil, russia and china became foreign
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gana. we are now at the end of the curve if you want to get os l d lated. the new book has up-to-date figures. i say the fundamentals will tell you what to do, not the insurance, not the overlays, and chaish not the charts, not the overlays, and the stock mark market -- stay with cramer. welcome to the now network. right now
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now that the president obama juggernaut seems to have run out of steam in washington and the pelosi pro le tearian is fading, we have something that could do serious damage to the economy, the consumer and the investor in all kinds of stocks if it's handled incorrectly. i'm talking about climate change. some democrats are in love with renewable fuel. they like wind, they like solar, but that's really about it. they consider everything else dirty, and they want no part of
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it. i believe the climate change is a problem, i think global warming is awful. i'm totally on board, and that's why i've tried to be constructive on my show with my criticism. i favor a solar panel on my roof, a windchmil -- windmill in every yard. we need to go from dirty energy to less dirty energy, especially when our trading partners like china and india threaten to bury us by staying dirty and taking our jobs away. we need a strategy to use less oil and more natural gas. part of my capitalist manifesto was to rule out gas-powered
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cars. i'm not alone, i got people who are smarter than i am on the team. richard tinder, a guy who understands the energy business than anybody else in this country wrote a piece that caught my eye in the houston chronicle earlier this month advocating natural gas and nuclear power as solutions to climate change. tinder makes the point that accelerated wind and solar power won't do much to curb emissions. they may be as clean as a whist whistle, but right now, it's just 1.6 of our energy needs. natural gas, on the other hand, is the cleanest fossil fuel, much cleaner than oil. it's cheap, and we're sitting on top of enormous amounts of it. it would be much easier to roll out a transition fuel than
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solar. natural gas would do more to reduce our co 2 emissions that punishing all fossil fuels. this country has pipe lines for natural gas all across the country. he knows what's feasible, and that's what i want to talk with him about tonight, about his proposals in the future of the industry. 8% yield, terrific stock. i liked the quarter, i hope you did, too, because the stock is a winner. what i'm concerned about is the best way to papproach climate change. welcome back to "mad money." what made you pan a piece about something when i just think of you as a guy who makes money for us shareholders? >> i like to think of myself the same way. i just got so infuriated with the lack of attention to what the realistic answers to this problem is that i just thought
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somebody who has a lot of years in the business ought to sit down and try to put it in writing, and that's what i've tried to do. >> how is it that natural gas, which is not only plentiful but has been found in tremendous -- i like to consider this the saudi arabia natural gas -- what's on the agenda? what happens here? >> i don't know, other than it is clearly not -- i'm very disappointed there is so much emphasis on the so-called renew ablz, wind and so -- renewables solar in particular, and as you point out, this is 1.116% in this country. you can talk about doubling and quadruplin quadrupling. the equivalent of almost 12 million barrels every day, and if you increase the use of that, together with nuclear, i think, you can do enormous good in
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terms of reducing emissions. for example, jim, if you replaced a large proportion, if you went from coal generating 50% of our electric power to 35%, you would make an overall reduction of about 10% of all the emissions from all sources in the united states. that's a considerable accomplishment. >> now, we need jobs in this country. if you had to have your master pipeline builder build pipe lines. if we were to switch to natural gas, we would put a lot of people to work at the same time we would be reducing our emissions, wouldn't we? >> absolutely we would. i think it would be very good for the economy, and not just in building the pipelines, which are a business, and also the people who work in the upstream of the business. they've made tremendous advances in horizontal drilling, that
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we're in a great place to produce a whale of a lot of natural gas at very reasonable cost. >> if we were to look back at one point, it was reasonable to think we couldn't do this as a country, but look at what's been found the last five years, where it is and how we could have a natural network of natural gas stations if we had to. >> well, you start off with where the natural gas has been found, and, obviously, a lot of these are in texas, louisiana and arkansas. but recently, of course, one of the biggest shale plays is right in the northeast, which is in pennsylvania, even extends into portions of new york. so there is a tremendous diversity of source of supply of natural gas. it can be produced very economically, and i think we've proven that we can move it very safely across america in pipelines. we can get it to wherever it's needed, including for natural
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gas vehicle use, if that's the way we tend to go. >> when you wrote the op-ed piece, let's speak politically for a second. you've got 8% oklahoma, 5% colorado. i never hear any of the politicians from these areas come out and talk about energy, but these coal states, they seem to have huge mind share in congress. >> they certainly did well in the structure of the last markey bill, i think, from a coal standpoint. there are lots of other ways, jim, to attack this other than cap and trade. you know, if you went to a mandate system, for example, and just, again, looking at electric generation only, if you had a sort of mandate where in a tie, a jump ball where you had the choice between coal and natural gas, you used natural gas-fired generation, and there would have to be parameters around that,
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you could go a long way toward really making significant steps towards emission. i have nothing against coal. if we eventually have clean coal, our co2 subsidiary will play a role in that running it through pipelines and is he -- sequestering it, we have a lot in the ground that we can use to reduce emissions in a very effective way and produce jobs. >> what about worldwide security? are we going to be able to wean ourselves from a community that we know is completely unstable by building a lot of windmills and solar panels? >> i don't believe we are. i believe that's a dream for the next generation or so, but if you use more gas and more nuclear, i believe you can take steps. you're not going to get back to the point where you're not importing any crude oil into
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this country. that's naive. but you can get to the point, i think, where you rely more and more on our own assets, and i think that's all we can expect to do. >> we're going to continue to push this issue, and look, kmp, you know we love it. >> thank you, jim. >> richard kendall, money maker, taking time out. to try to set the country straight and get on the right path -- we're going on the wrong path right now. during the break, i'll try to make you more money. undefeated professional boxer floyd "money" mayweather
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if you want to be a good investor, then you have to know when to take a path when you've come to an idea too late and the money has already been made by other people. one of the toughest things to do in this business is to step back and simply say, i missed it. especially when you think you have found a great thing. but no idea, no matter how good, can make you money when somebody else, or a lot of somebodies, have gotten there first. sometimes, sorry to say, you're just too late to the game. and that point, not to totally mix metaphors, you've got to be able to keep your bat on your
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shoulder. the mad money bat. instead of taking a wild swing trying to chase a pitch that's already well outside the strike zone. case in point, this weekend i read a story in the wall street journal. i was busy working while you were out having fun. it said, company draws customers to car dealers. it's about how the government's cash for clunkers program was taking off. just taking off. this is a billion-dollar government initiative that gives new car buyers a 3500 to $4500 rebate when they trade their car for a more efficient model. it should generate a huge amount of traffic. so i said, eureka! let's go do the work on auto nation, the largest independent
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retailer in america. with gm and chrysler gutting their dealerships all over the place, i thought we'd reduce the competition. so my brain and i go do the homework, and you know what? here's what we discovered. the stock had run up huge ahead of the clunkers program, giving us a pretty powerful hint that we were too late. i come into it right here. i say, wow. this is a really great idea. then i say, oh, man, was i ever beaten to the punch. others obviously had the same idea, done the work and the stocks soared higher. one of the first things you have to do is to ask yourself, were y -- when you're doing your homework, does anybody else know about that? if they do, has it already been priced on the market and oou
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missed your chance? the cash for clunkers program should be great for auto nation, but people obviously smarter than i was was obviously wise to this before it passed, and eaten before it hit the floor of congress just when people were chattering. even the rules to the program were only laid out last friday by the highway traffic and safety administration, even though the darn thing has just gotten underway, the legislation that created it was passed by congress who passed a law by president obama way back on june 24. someone decided to make me look bad. but that's okay because i am a terror. i will only take it up to the commercial. that's an attorney when you're talking about stocks, especially since the program was discussed in congress well before it was passed. the stock market, remember, is forward looking. nobody who saw this measure as a great catalyst for auto nation waited until it went into effect
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before buying. they bought the stock in anticipation of it. in fact, everyone and his brother placed a bet on this one. there was a quick look at this trajectory before genius cramer decided to look it up. one thing on the chart tells me, captain obvious, that i may have missed it. captain obvious may be distinguished from total know it all. on june 25, the day after the program was signed into law, auto nation's ceo came out and said it could increase vehicle sales 10% per year. it's now trading $20.63, up almost $5.29 in a little over a month. now that the program started, the stock only reflects the up
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side. yeah, we missed it. we're too late. and given that auto nation has already nearly quadrupled to $16.05 when this bill was passed, i worry about chasing this stock after it's up another five points. i even checked in with top gun trader, chief market strategist, and he runs the top gun trader newsletter, to get an opinion on the technical. he says this thing stalls out at $22. that's less than two points up side we're talking here. and who knows how much down side. if the economy gets worse, it could get walloped. we could have and should have seen this coming. instead we missed the bus. or, rather, the fuel-fikt ceffi
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car. since the cash for clunkers program has a limited shelf life until the money runs out, car dealers have already expressed concerns that the program might run out of money before the end of august. we may have missed this one entirely. what about other car companies in space? by the way, this one has rallied in sympathy, anyway. it's going way too far, too. penski, pascual guerrero. 60.5%. the cash for clunkers program only applies to cars that cost less than 45,000. these three stocks could still be major beneficiaries of the dealer collapse. i need you to wait for it to come down before buying because
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right now the crash is str stratosphere. when it comes to cash for clunkers program, i think auto nation was the best play, but it's played out. if you're in a position to already be in the stock because you saw this program coming, that's why this is in the cell block. i'm urging you to take profits tonight in auto nation, so half of your position. anything else is pure greed and contra gordon gecko, this is an up side. our discipline says you have to sell, sell, sell, and while this caused you some missed opportunities, in the long term, discipline causes you to lose a whole lot less money. and if you control the losses, the gains will take care of themselves. here's the bottom line. if you're a good investor, you
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say, i missed that. that's what you have to do with auto nation and the cars for clunkers program. they had it months ago with stocks soaring higher in anticipation of this program. i say if you're thinking about buying it -- >> don't buy it! don't buy it! >> and if you own it -- >> sell, sell, sell! >> what's going on? >> caller: nothing much. just dying in the seat over here. >> that's right, it's about 100 degrees in oregon, dude. don't sweat it. what's up? >> caller: quick question for you. you had the ceo of neco last friday. my question is, with the stimulus bill passed through congress, cash for clunkers, what effect is it going to have on the steel companies like nucor due to the effect of
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skrapd steel. >> nukor uses scrapped steel. it's a possibility that costs can go lower, but if you remember what dan said, they still have another quarter of inventory of high price scrap that they bought. here's what i think. i don't think there will be enough cars that will be crushed to make it to matter for nucorp. by wait, nucorp needs a robust economy if it's going to go higher, and that program alone won't do it. although 10 to 18 million cars built could use that car. bruce? >> caller: is this jim? >> it is. this bruce? >> let me give you a big boo-yah in kentucky by way of houston. >> i think you're in the southeast conference, plus the big 12, and who else? i can't even think of it.
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>> caller: i'm a big gator, so we're looking good. >> go ahead. >> caller: i'm looking at general parts company, the steady eddie of the office. >> with a nice yield, right? >> caller: 4.5 yield, and people are holding onto their cars, so i think people would be buying more auto parts. they're also one of the largest companies in the office products area. i think they're the largest distribute or in the united states. >> and that exactly, exactly, bruce, is the problem. when i was looking at this company, when i did riley automotive, when i did monroe, i personally said, you know what, if this was personal autos, i would be pulling the trigger, but it's that office supply place that i can't stand. you're not going to grow, bruce. i can't sound like a gator where you'll finish in the top 25. the up side of aln was played
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7 our caller, rockies, nothing. are you ready? it's time for the lightning round. robert! >> caller: hey, jim, this is bob from zion, illinois, but i wanted to give you a great big eagles boo-yah from allentown, pennsylvania. >> oh, wow, i'm going out to training camp. and not just because the bear cats are ready to play. >> caller: i own scott's miracle gro. >> it reversed. our ceo friend was right here. he predicted that the smith would sell. i want you to hold and remember smg, scott's miracle gro is a winner. that reversal was unwarranted. tyler?
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>> caller: hey, how's it going? the cubs are about to win boo-yah for you! >> oh, well, good luck, boo-yah. the wrong boo-yah. go ahead. >> caller: oxy petroleum has had a great run lately. i prefer it to conoco, i prefer it to the vast majority of oil companies. however, i do like yield, and it doesn't have that great a yield. i put it in the don't buy, don't sell category because it had that big run. how about henry in new york? henry! >> caller: jim cramer, you're the greatest. what about motorola? >> i was shocked motorola could make money? i would say they're out of the woods. [ buzzer sounds ]
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>> remember to text because nokia and motorola are still getting smacked by apple! greg in california. greg? >> caller: jim, how you doing? >> pretty good, greg. how about you? >> i want to give you a big bakersfield boo-yah! >> it got cold, i could live in the desert for a while. what's up? >> i want to know if ssbby is a buy, a beer or a bull? >> for mortgage purposes, i like it because i think the u.s. economy is coming back. i'm liking it because it's best in show in the category. i think that's a good situation. i also like the sh greg, by the way. let's talk to shawn in new york. shawn! >> caller: i want to give you a big, it's my birthday week
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boo-yah! >> i'll give you a boo-yah. happy birthday. what's up? >> caller: jim, i've been following this show since you were on km radio six years ago. >> absolutely. >> caller: i want to thank you for every bit of knowledge you've shared with us. >> we do not buy the common stocks of any european banks, we buy the preferreds. even though aig got in trouble, they paid the preferred. i want you in preferreds when it comes to european banks, not the common stock. don't tell me it's really over. don't tell me the lightning round is over. don't tell me that skull is still up there from the mets. >> that's real. >> and the lightning round is over! let's ask. when i trade, i want a straightforward price. they lure you in with a $5.99 trade, then charge you 15 bucks.
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you get a low price, but only if you make a ton of trades. at td ameritrade, every online stock trade is just $9.99. period. no matter how often you trade. no matter how much money you have in the account. i hate those hidden fees buried in the fine print. surprise! it's a maintenance fee! i hate surprises. at td ameritrade, you never pay a maintenance fee. you get low, straightforward pricing, so you always know exactly what you're paying. hey, that works for me. are you ready to declare your independence? independence is the spirit that drives america's most successful investors. announcer: trade commission-free for 30 days plus get $100 cash when you open an account.
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i have my first nomination tonight. i will show you what fred hassen did for you if you've been listening to our show. this is drug stock we liked for so long. this is the record of fred hassan, he came in on november of 2003. he promised us, came on the show and reiterated the promise during the whole affair he would make us money. look what he did versus all the other drug companies. schering up 50%. why? a takeover bid. still only half of what he did. look at the ones everybody loved all the time. how many times did we get call on the lilly and pfizer and merck. look how bad they did. look what fred hassan did. wherever he goes, we will follow fred. i want to wish him best in the merger and want to buy when he buys. i want to talk about danny
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meyer, the best book i read about business in the last few years called "setting the table." he came to us in the midst of the "great depression," great depression 2. he said what you want to buy are not companies that will save you money, try to not get you to buy the family dollar or wal-mart. he was saying he wants to buy hospitality company. take a look at the hospitality index and how much it has outperformed the s&p and look at some of the players, what he is talking about. he recognized he could go to amazon, had good customer service and google had good customer service, apple. monster great quarter, goldman sachs. what he said was the way you make money in a recession is go with the companies that have built tremendous loyalty. we questioned his judgment. i was thinking you ought to go with the companies that give you the most tremendous value. he was right. danny myers is the guy i listened to, he's the guy you should listen to, too.
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best july since 1939? i think that's saying something. there's always a bull market somewhere. promise to find it for you on "mad money." i'm jim cramer and i'll see you tomorrow. next up on kudlow, the summer rally is a new bull market that will last to the spring of 2010. plenty of time for investors to get in. obama's bearish health care plan is down in the polls but still alive in congress. when this hotel added aflac to compliment their benefits package aflac! it made a big splash with the employees yeaaaahhhh! find out more at aflac!... ...forbusiness.com
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