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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 31, 2009 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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q2 turned out okay for us. we've seen the summer slowdown in july.y. but the market continues to do a lot of work around the 9000 level, around 1000 on the s&p appears to be hanging on pretty well.. >> how long have you been listed? >> for about three years i think. >> i remember the ipo, actually. >> the ipo was before then. we were actually here. >> yes. >> i think we were listed in the '90s, late '90s. >> it's been a really exciting time for you for sure. >> the company keeps getting bigger. >> something new? >> this is the driver and they keep getting bigger and better. i don't get to play anymore but -- so i got to get back out there. but we're going to get to play in the rain today. >> it's pouring out. let's play! i can't say i've ever used this. >> that's a putter. >> yeah. >> putter away. >> put your hands on the putter. >> give me your script. >> no? >> sorry, it's not working out the way it's supposed to. >> okay.
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there you go. >> there you go. >> grab the putter. give me your script.. i will do the job here. >> all right? >> the idea is to get it in that hole. >> i know that, thank you very much, mr. fellows. okay, here we go. >> whoa! >> okay, let me try it again. let me try it again. >> this is on an angle. i don't know if this is -- okay, here we go. >> she plays miniature golf like my kids. >> one more try. one more try. >> close enough. >> everybody have a great weekend. sorry i blew it on the golf. i'll see you in two weeks. have a good night. thanks for joining us. thank you for being on the program. july ends with gains of 7% on the month and the s&p and nasdaq. the faa is investigating whether they delayed telling regulators about boeing 737 jets reports "the wall street journal." and treasury secretary geithner said the house took a
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positive step forward on passing a executive compensation bill. that's "cnbc.com news now." i'm mary thompson. "fast money" with melissa lee starts right now. well, the red hot july lead to an even hotter august? let's find out from the best players on the street. this is "fast money." live from the nasdaq market site. i'm melissa lee and these, of course, are the "fast money" all-stars today. the s&p 500 rising for a fifth straight month, gaining % in july. but is a rally really ready for a vacation at this point? let's get the word on the street right now. in terms of the fundamentals of the rally today, that continues the rally for the month. did we see that participation that we like to see on a friday during the summer? >> not exactly -- >> we're all excited that you're back. >> my goodness, i'm excited to be back. >> that's a good color on you. i'm not that excited.d. month end i thought you would see a lot of money being put to work. it looked like earlier it was fades out. i'm not that constructive.
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the s&p rallied over 100 points in 2 1/2 weeks.s. it's too much. i don't care what anybody says. >> today's rally was different from yesterday. it faded a little bit. i sat here yesterday and told you it was allocation and there were people that were marking up and people positioned for next week. i would not want to be short going into next week. i'm worried about august when liquidity will dry up, but we're also getting more data. the data on gdp, forget that. but we started to get support from the chicago ism numbers, told you about the decent supplies out there. >> when you go down to the gpd numbers, consumer spending was a concern. we'll get the raft of retail earnings over the next couple of weeks and it will shed more concern and light on the strength of the consumer. >> it has been a phenomenal four months. you know how optimistic and bullish i have been. but guy is spot on this. you talked about yesterday, you look at the intraday price action and that is what we were looking at to see when it is you move to the sidelines. not get short, folks, when you move to the sidelines. when you have stosks that go to the ten-month high and meet all
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that supply and inventory that remains from the pre-lehman days, all that selling and reverse and go out on the lows, that's the telltale sign you move to the sidelines. and what's coming this week? keep in mind, friday, unemployment. that's a huge roadblock for the market. >> welcome. in terms of the volatility, we did see it go up a little bit. what do you make of the action? what do you see in terms of protection buying perhaps going into next week?? >> well, you know, i would agree first with tim and joe. i mean, one of the things that we keep hearing about, a lot of people are saying we're due for a pullback but i don't see the smart money guys getting short. so, i think that's a critical thing to remember. when i was taking a look at volty, i noticed the vix was static when the market was rallying a lot. you would expect it to come. but a longer-term, bullish tirms, ttirm terms, it was suggesting that volatility was going to stay
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static. i don't think there's a disaster on the horizon. >> joe talked about the payroll numbers. i think we'll get the auto numbers on monday. >> does that matter anymore at this point because it matter because of the cash for clunkers program? >> it absolutely matters. first of all, auto sales read into durables and lead to the commodities and people think they're a dollar trade. they are not. if get a 40% move up in auto production, i think we will, that's the beginning of the rally. china pmi announced today, everybody's following china's every word, and that was a big story this week. they'll tell you whether the economy continues to grow on the industrial side. >> but you have to look at what you do next week, heading into the unemployment, you got to move to the sidelines. a lot of these stocks. look at google today. we talk about stocks that rally and meet up with the pre-lehman highs, the ten-month highs from where the market fell back.. a tremendous amount of supply sitting there. >> what does that mean if you want to move to the sidelines ahead of the jofbs report? are you betting that perhaps it's a number that will surprise us? isn't it a bad number that we
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are all expecting? >> what you are looking to do is be prudent in the marketplace, a market that has rallied substantially and potentially reloaded. it's okay to get back in after higher levels, after unemployment, the market will be better. >> but the rally is not every single stock. it's not like we've seen an entirely broad rally. you were alluding to tech. it's a large part of everything we've seen. if you step to the sidelines of tech, it's understandable to me. but there or they are areas in the marketplace, big-cap names that haven't participated the way they typically do, like energy. if you're long energy in here, are you going to bail out? are you going to sit on the sidelines? i don't think that's so. >> just to finish my point on google, it closed on the lows today. that's significant. mastercard did the same thing yesterday, visa, those are the names, intraday price action rolled. >> the other side, the stock that hasn't participated in this rally, what is that telling you? there's a reason why it didn't participate. if you're waiting for it to play catch-up, i think you might get scmo smoked.
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i take the other side on that. >> you need two sides. what do the history books say if you have a strong july, what does it mean in august? chart of the day. chart of the day. bring it up. because when we see a great july -- >> it's coming. it's coming. there it is. >> there we go. we usually see a pretty decent august, in fact, when july gains more than 5% the average august gain is about 2.4%, the average august through december gain is 4.5% according to history. >> they are somewhat meaningless. they are not your numbers, moses, so i'm not coming at you. people try to throw stats at the market that are totally irrelevant to this context. if you look at august, though, again, in the second half of august, you'll lose liquidity and a lot of people going into september and historically it's a dangerous month. >> according to your logic, we have throw it out, too. >> most people think october is the month to watch out for, because notable crashes have happened. >> but if we're throwing out
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history, we'll throw it out across the board. maybe the week of september won't happen either. >> you can certainly be consistent with that argument, let's. the latest gdp data pushing the dollar to the lowest level of the year against six major currency. contracting in the second quarter but smaller than expected. fourth straight quarter with a contraction. consumer spending was a bit of a concern. and the dollar index collapsed into may. >> we had a conspiracy theory on the dollar index. timmy geithner sitting down with the chinese, monday and tuesday, what does that mean? the dollar will remain strong. a lot of people got turned on the commodity trade. you heard people get short oil, get short oil. and where is it today? oil reversed. commodities reversed. they are all moving higher. i do believe that it is related to the dollar specifically, because i don't think the fundamentals line up in the commodities. >> it's definitely related to the dollar. i don't think it's as contrived as the china story, but i believe we are on our best behavior. but i think absolutely the dollar is continuing, of course, because people are taking more risk. a gradual devaluation of the
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dollar is happening. we talked about this on the show last night. the guest was right, but i didn't agree with the levels. we are seeing a transfer of wealth that is happening and it will continue. right here this is risk taking. these are people going into higher yielding assets and selling dollars and buying brazil and buying indian rupels and russian rupees. >> we saw gold go higher. >> i messed oil up for you folks. when it was down four bucks, i thought it was a real tell. but what i missed gas was only down a nickel. yesterday it goes up four bucks, gas was up 13 cents. that's my bad. i should have picked up on it. i didn't. gas led this time.. >> there is a clear tell going forward here as we move towards the end of the year. here's the trade. if we are going to have a gdp economic recovery, what should happen in the commodities space is the massive contango that all the commodities are trading under should be removed. all that inventory gets worked off, contango comes out of the
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market. that will be the tell on the commodity space if we get the shift into backwardation. >> when you say that, do you think aluminum prices will be 40% higher? >> if contango comes out of the market, aluminum and oil will move higher from here. but withouto coming out, then none of the commodities will continue the upward momentum. >> the near data in the spot markets will ric s will rise. >> you want to look at inventory levels being worked off. gdp, that's what it's about. inventory working out, the same thing in commodities, it's the trade. >> in the equity side what is the trade? >> look at schlumberger, you would think it would rip higher and it was unchanged on the day. down from $59, traded at $53. sort of hovering. that might be a tell in terms of the equity. we sort of got in and out of this one. i still think there's a chance that it trades down to $49.
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but to me it's dead money. >> slchevron and exxon down. mike? >> energy earnings are going to be down 50% to 70% year-on-year and understand they are late cycle in terms of recovering when you get the economic recovery energy is always last in terms of turning stock. >> you are at the primary factor in the integrated oil space that will drive this on the revenue and earnings was the price of oil and it was much lower.r. if you're taking a look at the forward price of oil, it's higher. you would anticipate that they are going to do better looking forward.d. so, i would personally say if you are looking at an opportunity, i would look at integrated or the other companies that have more exposure to natural gas.s. everybody is looking at the natural gas and oil relationship -- >> unrelated. >> what are you doing? they flared gas at one time. they might start doing it again. >> i think if you look at the integrated, i think you are looking at the production
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growth, chevron and conoco is growing production. if we get rid of the contango, chevron would be the one to buy. when oil is scarce and it's going higher, they are growing the reserve. that's what they are rewarding. >> let's move on here to the next trade. this is the trade i've been waiting to announce. >> ooh. >> because i miss that expression. i wish you could have a split screen and run the animation and show on the other side guy's reaction to that. >> love it. it's great. >> cringing. cringing. >> the obama trade. >> the obama trade, of course, cash for clunkers program was still alive despite the $1 billion that congress aiated for it, despite it drying up. the potential $2 billion injection. how will it help the automakers? ford shares were up 7%. >> this is the one we've called. >> absolutely. >> look at the stock action in ford. we've been talking about this thing since it was five bucks
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saying it would go to $7 and $7.50. it's way too late. bank of america put an $.50 target on it. alan mulally said he will stay at ceo until they have sustained profitability. i love that. but you know what, this trade to me it's late.. if you're getting in now you're playing stock market. but ford was the play and we talked about it. >> at the end of the day today, i sold short toyota motors. i think that has had a tremendous run but it's actually rising again to the levels. back to the pre-lehman levels where there's the tremendous amount of supply sitting overhead. and also keep in mind with the dollar coming off, you are going to see the japanese yen catch a bid, that will not bode well for toyota motors. it's a play i'm putting on. got short here, risking against $90. >> are we going to see the top of the automakers? because if we are stimulating all this demand right now and everybody's buying a car now to capture this rebate does that mean essentially they're not going to buy a car later on. if you buy one, you won't buy one in december when it's over.
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>> we saw how quickly we possibly burned through this money. we had the ceo of hearrtz, they are making a lot of money, and we are betting on ford's subsidiary in turkey, growing 20%, 25% a quarter i've been on quawrd. volkswagen is selling an enormous amount of cars in brazil and china while the european shares are flat. there's more to the trade than the cash for clunkers trade. we burned down the inventories the last six months, we're tight. >> volkswagen is an international company, and the exposure to the united states given the side of vw is relatively small. i agree wholeheartedly. >> the names like autozone, we'val talked about it on the desk. but autozone, if you're going to have a new car, you're not going to have to buy the parts to fix the old one up. >> the recovery in the
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automakers is probably the dismay of these autozones of the world, frankly. and the other trade we got you into and out of is look at the bourg warner, we told you to get out ahead. the stock was down 10% during that day. so, again, there's the stock that had a run. pulls back. yes it's a buy, it's not a buy here. >> what you are looking at is the fundamentals versus the valuations. the valuations are getting ahead of themselves. back in march, fundamentals versus valuation were way too cheap versus the fundamentals that the were place. it's getting rich. >> the industrial names are the top sector. caterpillar rallied 33% this month. ge, parent of this network, saw its shares jump 13%. surprise, surprise move there for ge on the upgrade. >> i think you can be too cute. i was too cute in the first part of the move, it moved 10% and in a couple of days i can't do it
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with a company this big. but as they start to break down, we went through this week, the potential in the financial unit and it's not only intact it might be stronger going forward, but what the guys are doing on infrastructure and technology. ge is rerating and $13 handle on ge you would have thought that 52 weeks ago it was unthinkable. you are starting to see people look at them again now that we have better insight into their balance sheets. >> honeywell, if you like ge, you got to like honeywell especially if you think the auto sector is going to go up. it's a better company without the ge capital exposure. headed back to $36. 12 times ford earnings. i like honeywell. >> mike, can you understand why people move out of them, is there a name in the tough sector that you like? >> we were talking about on the industrial side, caterpillar's revenues were a little bit disappointing, but i like the sales that they get internationally. that's i think a strength there. >> in the industrial sector a
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couple things to keep in mind, the ism which troughed and once it troughed and moved to $50 that's where you get the best rise in valuations with the names. ge was a complete misconception out there that ge itself wanted to spin off ge capital. that's not what they wanted, but what they wanted is economic and credit stability. they are seeing that.. them not spinning off ge capital is actually great. there's $585 billion worth of performing assets there. ge capital belongs with ge. that's what they want. >> that's what ge always wanted and it was congressional pressure when representative barney frank came out and said, no, that's not going to happen. that's when shares got a relief. time to trade the globe. a volatile week for china and emerging markets. shares were sliding midweek. it was an unbelievable move. >> it was an unbelievable move because china had an unbelievable move. people are scared about the
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amount of money being pumped into china. it's worth talking about.t. it's three times what it was worth three months ago. that weighs on commodities.s. we all know that they've been buying commodities. they're strategic buyers. it doesn't have to be just about demand. china was in angola buying gas and they are in buying ag. if the china bubble which was the first cracks we saw actually in global markets last year start toe happen again, it scared the heck out of people this week. i think emerging markets had a great week because it's a different story and i think if the dollar's weakened and the commodities are rallying you've got to be long emerging markets and people were. >> give us a specific name. >> they told you they had decent numbers but the ceo went out of their way to tell you that the worst is over and they are actually seeing metals prices starting to expand. i want to own nickel and the fourth largest maker of jets and fighter planes in the world when we are laughing at boeing, they
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are making their delivery schedule and they announced earnings that are impressive. you want to own the consumer but don't stay away from the commodities. >> the next trade after closing out the best month since 1997, what in store for august? joining us with his summer outlook is the director of market research over at oplesce. people want to know the resistance levels. >> you look well rested. you look fantastic.. >> i was working.g. but i'll take the compliment. >> with the s&p, it is the psychological resistance level of 5000. we've gone up 120, 125 points the past two weeks. the moving line is positive and everything looks fine. except for the fact that 1000 is an area that we may run into the psychological resistance. the rsi indicators the move here in the last couple of days was weaker than the move we had a week and a half ago. so next week with the employment report on friday, it will be
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sideways to mundane and downside movement. >> when i hear about the psychological resistance and whatnot, how about the s&p through 1000? we sliced right through it and there really wasn't a whole lot of support.t. why do we have to make the argument on the flip side the way back through? i don't think we should be doing cartwheels but i think we overshot in a lot of places and i don't know why 1000 is the barrier. >> it may not be. but 12 points the last two weeks. we've put in major lows one in march and one a couple of weeks ago, many people thought we overshot and then going straight down. we reversed that pattern.n. you've had a lot of influence to the market the past couple of weeks and there's nothing wrong with retracing a little bit and let some of the people that even missed this last move reload. >> greg, let's talk gold here, you know, with dollar weakness, we saw gold break through 950. what do you see next? >> melissa, on a long-term basis here gold, again, looks fantastic. 100day moving average line looks solid, upward slope.
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the only thing is if you look at the highs just above 1000, we have three or four major points that we've come into resistance here. what i'd like to do with gold is get above 985 at the end of august, then i'll know. then i'll know that that's a breakout, because we're looking at a long-term chart. when we went down to 900 a couple weeks ago, everyone was beating the drums that gold was in trouble. it was only 10% or 12% off historical highs. no reason to panic. i'd like to get above 935, which is only $35, at the end of august. then i know we have a break that we can go to $1,100 and higher. >> have a nice weekend. >> bye, melissa. >> i feel like he's in his own little world. >> very cool. that was the word on the street. but coming up, we've got the word from the street from the ceo of mcafee. and we have another first on cnbc interview. here's what else is coming
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up on the show -- earnings season gave the market its best july in years. but the most important report is still ahead. the best in the trading business give the big setup for cisco. and from government computers to nike servers cyberterrorism attacks are a growing threat. the ceo of one of the biggest names in of the bis breaks down a record quarter and why this is just the beginning. plus, it's the biggest cosmetics craze in years and now obama may want to tax it. botox top brass on the future of this groundbreaking treatment, when america's postmarket show continues. at 155 miles per hour, andy roddick
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has the fastest serve in the history of professional tennis. so i've come to this court to challenge his speed. ...on the internet. i'll be using the 3g at&t laptopconnect card. he won't so i can book travel plans faster, check my account balances faster. all on the go. i'm bill kurtis and i'm faster than andy roddick. (announcer) "switch to the nations fastest 3g network" "and get the at&t laptopconnect card for free".
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welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq marketplace. breaking news to tell you about from the bank of america. "the wall street journal" has reported that three directors have resigned. john t. collins, william barnett ii and gary l. countryman. "the wall street journal" reporting this is not as a result of a disagreement with bank of america or its management. for all 2009 ten directors have resigned according to "the wall street journal," which seems like a staggering number. right now the board has 12 members. including ken lieu with is, and, of course, this opens up the question whether ken lewis is, in fact, safe in his job with
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all these board members resigning for whatever reason they're resigning for. >> we also learned today that the house is passing legislation that pretty much neuters the board to be able to make significant decisions that they should be making and making a better job doing certainly historically. the board role is no longer the board role it was and i'm not surprised to see this. >> any predictions how long ken lewis lasts at this point? >> his demise has been talked for a long time. charlie has talked about it. he's still there. my sense is he'll be here the rest of the year. >> is it a reason to stay away from bank of america stock? >> no, absolutely not. >> with all those board members resigning? >> it's their way to get by the bailout. bank of america. let's move on here. we'll keep you up to date, of course, if any other developments happen. as we close out the best july in more than a decade, we want to show you the best-performing sectors as well as stocks.. top sector here, i don't know if we have a drumroll. i feel like we need a drumroll. materials, 13%.
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consumer discretionary financials up 9%. and also posting a 9% gain. top stock of july is gannett. there you go. gci, surprising. that's probably because they got hammered. in the month of june. that's the way it always works, right? okay. you're laughing. worst stock here. >> i like your "trader radar." hammered. >> it's just a term. very descriptive. aig getting hammered in july 43%. akamai down 14%. and time to talk about crisco. they are reporting next week. the stock closing up the month 18%. the tech heavyweight will the earnings derail this rally we've seen in technology? we've been talking about this. >> if you think the s&p's going to continue higher, then iscisco makes sense and its valuations are fair. juniper raised guidance.
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and it makes sense that cisco would do well. if you think it gets heavy next week, cisco went from 13.50 to 22. you have to take money off the table. if you like the market, great.. if you don't, get out. >> i think it's priced in. i think the enterprise demand will be solid. you'll see it there. but valuation weiss, it's up 20% of the last month. keep this in mind with cisco, large-cap technology, cisco has the highest correlation to gdp growth. we keep talking about this, gdp growth, quarter on quarter. quarter on quarter. if we get a good move, cisco, tech. >> let's move on the next trade. we've got a great guest lined up here. the cybersecurity threat continues and we hear from a leader in the space. mack afy reporting better-than-expected earnings. joining us from san jose, mcafee's ceo david dewalt. welcome to the program.. great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> what are you hearing from ceos and the heads of the
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companies in terms of their outlook for the rest of the year and their plans to spend on antiviral and security-type software? >> well, we've been fortunate. security's one of the top i.t. sectors out there, i mean, worldwide we're seeing a lot of threat landscape increase, cybercrime, terrorism-type activities, and it's driving our business. corporations need to protect themselves. governments need to protect themselves. consumers need to protect themselves and it's driving our business, so the demand's been good for us and we're taking market share. and now 14 consecutive double-digit revenue growth quart quarters. >> the stock is at the highest level in ten years. nice job. >> thank you.. >> consumer revenue is better than expected.. but corporate revenues worse than expected. is that the business model? is that the way you want to go?? do you want to get consumer revenues highers, sort of close the gap? >> a big ingredient to our strategy is always to have a very balanced model. we have 91% of our business that's recurring every quarter.
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we've had growth in our product business, both consumer and corporate, and we really look for the balance. we've had a number of great corporate quarters. we're now getting nine consecutive sequential growth quarters on consumer.. we had double digit growth on a constant currency basis in all the major geographies around the world, so it's that balance that we look for. i think corporate will come back in the third and fourth quarters as well and will balance consumer nicely. it looks good for us. >> you are talking about your global business. it looks like it's been flat. it looks like you guys are kind of somewhere around 52%, 53% in the u.s., and you're stuck there over the last couple years. why aren't you growing these revenues abroad?d? i would think you would be. >> oh, the balance has been nice, you know, the north american balance with the international balance is almost what you strive for as a -- as a u.s.-based corporation, getting to 50% international revenues is a nice balance. we could always do better.. one of the major initiatives for us is emerging markets. we think there's a good
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opportunity and in a lot of the higher-growth markets in the world. we're going after that and putting investments in place. i think overtime you'll see us get morell baensed toward international. we're getting a little currency exchange impact negatively. if you look at that we would have had 6% more growth on top. but this will iron itself out in the coming quarters. >> great to talk to you. hope you will come back next quarter and talk to us here at "fast." >> thank you. appreciate it. there is clearly trade-offs. the cybersecurities have become defensive plays in a recession. >> next time there's a recession. that's really looking ahead, hopefully. next trade here, travel and leisure stocks getting hit hard. summer winds down, is there any hope for a rebound for the names as we head into august?? with us now is jane wells, the intrepid jane wells. she joins us from l.a. >> hey, i'm all about travel and
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leisure. i saw that wynn resorts was one of the top performing stocks for the month. the stocks have been doing one thing while the industry is doing very different. if you look at the dow jones summer index, it's had a nice rally even as the travel and leisure has been hurting. they've done a good job managing costs. that's the only way they were able to eke out a profit. because hotel per room are down double digit precipitation and in las vegas everything is down in every sector. if you look how well the las vegas sands stock did until the recent news versus the broader market and yesterday's earnings came in, look at that. you can see what happened. maddy's warned that las vegas sands is subject to a possible downgrade which could jeopardize its covenants. the only good news is in cruising where it looks like discounting is starting to ease up and carnival is going to be -- is starting to raise prices for cruises booked at the end of this year. but the big question mark hanging over that industry remains h1n1, in fact, a royal caribbean ship pulled into port in france today with 62 people
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sick with cold and flu-like symptoms, so that continues to hang over the whole industry. i have to tell you one other thing, caesars palace, they are seeing a boost in business as people are wanting to check into the suite from "the hangover." >> funny you should mention caesars palace, oddly enough, because we're going to be on the ground monday in vegas. we'll report back. >> are you going to twit it? >> we'll be a camera for you. we'll let you know what's going on, me and the doc. >> that's amazing. >> "the hangover" package, they don't have the suite, that was made on a movie set. we'll go next month and shoot it ourselves. >> go monday. >> you can get in the two hoif story suite. they used to call them the "rainm "rainm "rainman" suites. you get a $50 food and beverage card. >> you know the ratio of food and beverage there i think is -- jane, thank you. >> the bottom line, there are
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tumbleweeds blowing down the strip in vegas. for the consumer, the gdp number told you wages are and ben fins are going down year over year. they are giving it away out there. the reason the stocks rallied is the reworking of the debt and nothing else.. >> you are manking a lot of good points, but if we're seeing a rebound in china and asia ahead of the united states and typically in the past a lot of the tourism has come from that region, will we see a comeback in vegas a little bit sooner? >> again, it's fundamentals versus valuation. yes, there are tumbleweeds blowing down the streets of las vegas, but the casino trade has been a heavily shorted trade. right now that trade over the last three, four weeks sho shorts are getting squeezed out. you got to understand the way the market is positioned. and fundamentally the casinos, travel and leisure space, it is going to be the equivalent of the tech space after the 2001 bubble burst.. you are going to see consumer
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retrench. balance sheet retrench.. that affects travel and leisure going forward over the long term. but, again, it goes back to how is the market positioned. and in these names we were short. >> got to move on here.. coming up next, we talk botox and flu with the ceo of allergan. and why the cash for clunkers program could be the best thing that ever happened to your hairline. we're back in a minute. oof!
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i hope he has that insurance. aflac! you really need it these days. how come? well if you're hurt and can't work it pays you cash... yeah to help with everyday bills like gas, the mortgage... ...and groceries. it's like insurance for daily living. so...what's it called? uhhhhh aflaaac!!!! oh yeah! that's it! aflac. we've got you under our wing. a-a-a-aflaaac!
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money." here's what we have got for you in the back half of the show. it's time for a street fight. should companies that receive government money be allowed to pay hefty bonuses? and we'll tell you what the options pit is doing as the jobs looms. but first allergan up 2% after beating second quarter earnings. it's been on a great run, up more than 30%. can the investors expect the earnings injections to continue? joining us is allergan david el pyott. forgive the bad joke there.. >> we like injections as long as
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they make people look good. >> want to ask you about this botox tax, the one that's being floated by the treasury adviser, gene spurling. an excise tax potentially on elective surgeries. how serious are you taking this talk?? have you already dispatched your lobbyists to capitol hill? >> we've heard a lot of thins about botox taxes over the years. from what we hear, it's losing momentum. we heard chairman baucus that it hadn't been discussed for quite a long time. in fact, the history of this if we look at, say, state-level taxation in new jersey, when they instituted a cosmetic tax, it only brought in 25% of the anticipated revenues. and, in fact, a member of the state assembly there has pointed out to many other colleagues in other states, basically i wouldn't do it again. >> david, you're not just botox, you're not just a pretty face either, my man.
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avuveil got fda approval. relieves the cataract surgery pain. is that a big deal for you? >> it's kind of a second-tier product. the indications you spoke about are absolutely correct.. i think the more important recent approval was our drug for retinal therapeutics which, in fact, the largest -- well, the most rapidly growing segment of the world ophthalmology market.. that's a big deal for us. of course, for your listeners and viewers, in fact, half the company at allergan is ophthalmic pharmaceuticals and we've been the fastest growing company in the world for seven years in a row now. everybody knows us for botox, but there's the other side of it as well. in fact, that's how we started. the first two indications of botox were for ophthalmic uses. >> great to have you with us.. thanks for joining us. now, let's get to the stocks
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that are making extreme moves for the week. time for "pops and drops." a pop for alcoa.a. up 7% on the week. >> metals are on the move. aluminum's up 20% in the last week and it's going higher. >> nike popping 9%, joe. >> falling dollar. looks like nike's found a base around 50 bucks. we talked about getting long here. it looked like it broke out on wednesday. the trade is long above 50. if it goes lower, you're out. >> amsc up 20%. >> cool name.. but huge quarter. it wasn't that good. good enough, though, to squeeze out all the shorts.. if this gets below $30.. be careful. it goes to $32 today.y. >> a drop for xlm. down 3% on the week. mike? >> i'm kind of surprised that people were surprised by the results. we know what the primary factors are in the integrated oil space. they should have seen it coming. no way it was a good quarter. so, now i actually think i'd start to take a look ahead. i might look getting long on the
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integrated. >> we have a pop for the bear-faced bobo. that's now a new nickname for tim. a new species of bird has been discovered in the 's is cliffs of laos. the songbird's moniker comes from its featherless face because they use it apparently to attract mates.. >> we are not well represented. >> if you hear about the bare-faced bullbull it's for you, baby. >> it needs a little botox. >> the pop for barclays. it was up. >> the bonds rallied on the gdp number. next week is obviously a huge week. out two weeks. more auctions. >> nice pop for wells fargo on the week.. it was up 5%. >> it was short covering. i wouldn't get too excited about it. nonperforming assets, we talked about it last week. 45% growth. that does not bode well going forward. >> drop for pfizer.. down 3%.
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>> we got a pos piece in "barrons." it trades at a 58% discount. the problem with the argument it is the same argument for the last $15 with pfizer. stay away. >> big pop here for expedia. up 12%. >> i like to see the consumer-type names doing well. mastercard was a little bit of a surprise, but i'm hoping the types of names and what we're seeing isn't just a little blip on the radar. >> and we got a pop here for adrienne's hair center. , again, if only pete were here. whoa! no, no, no. we love pete. we love pete. you know if he were here, though, that toupee would be coming off his head. the ft. lauderdale, florida, hair salon has been inspired by the cash for clunkers auto stimulus plan and is offering its own plan, paying men and women 50 bucks to trade in their old hairpieces to new ones. the hair weaves can run between $500 and $1,000. they say there are a lot of
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clunkers on people's heads, hence the program. >> you see? >> got to wonder. got to wonder about that one. on deck here. time to take off the gloves for the latest street fight. should banks that receive bailout money be allowed to pay out big bonuses? plus, we'll grill the traders on not-so-hot trades and tell you what your next trades should be. . 31 are streaming a sales conference from the road. eight are wearing bathrobes. two... less. - 154 people are tracking shipments on a train. - ( train whistles ) 33 are im'ing on a ferry. and 1300 are secretly checking email... - on a vacation. - hmm? ( groans ) that's happening now. america's most dependable 3g network. bringing you the first and only wireless 4g network. sprint. the now network. deaf, hard of hearing and people with speech disabilities access www.sprintrelay.com.
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in a week of choppy trading, our traders navigated you toward plays that were quicker than the ticker. >> burlington northern the stock traded great. technically. we saw it traded down 67 or so last week. now above $70. probably goes back to $75 off the csx numbers. >> next up profitville, the negotiator recommending railroad stock burlington northern after it beat earnings expectations and declared a quarterly dividend, shares rallied 13%. >> take a look at transocean. .200-day moving average sitting at $66.50. the second half of the year you might see a share buyback. they weathered the selloff in oil. great way to get exposure in energy. >> the liquid dater believing the fundamentals would keep the stock climbing. the shares soared 17%.
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>> a massive move of this provider of essentially infant formulas in china. the guidance was 40% below expectations. but it does not warrant the stock. >> and the ambassador milking american dairy for all it's worth. shares jumped 37% report after a government report showed milk prices to could start to rise. leaving us with two words to sum it up, "fast money." and now from the best to the worst time for "fast fire" where we grill on traders on calls gone cold. first victim. >> go. >> the negotiator, earlier this month he told you to bet against this wall street heavyweight. >> in terms of the trade, jpmorgan the report this friday, traded up to $35.09. pulled back that $35.25 is still there for anybody that wants to get short. it closed above $35.25, you're out. >> it saw great earnings. the stock was up more than 10%. >> on july 16th it closed above $35.25 and i think it closed near $36. i hope you got out, because it's
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been off to the races since. that's why you have to have a very defined stop. if you listened, you didn't nearly as bad as that would portend or portray. you like that? >> i like that alliteration. >> the liquid dater jumping out too early. >> you can't hang in there with ibm the way it's performed over the last three or four days.. you have to be on the sidelines and await the guidance. >> the big blue "b" the stock soared. >> we got the guidance. phenomenal earnings. it ran up to the target, $120. i think it's pulling back. guy was talking about buying it against $110, $113. that's a gap there. on ibm i would be on the sidelines awaiting the pullback. >> the ambassador finally staying away from the conglomerate. >> i think there's been a 12% or 13% rise in the stock. i would not need to jump into the stock in the short term.. it's kind of the show-me stock.
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>> the parents of this network got an upgrade of goldman sachs. >> i think i already mea culpaed myself earlier on the show. at $13.50. it does look technically very challenged. the rsi, which is a momentum indicator looks overbought. i'd be careful. >> since it's your first day on the desk, mike, i'll give you a pass. >> i haven't had a chance to make a big mistake yet. >> everybody does. up next, your options setup for the next week with the yoda of options himself, in case you didn't know, that's mike's moniker on "options action." we'll be back in just a minute. i'm glad i turned to fidelity for an annuity with guaranteed income for life. that's right, guaranteed income for life. my annuity from fidelity means my retirement income is safe. it's guaranteed, no matter what happens. if guaranteed income for life sounds good to you, do what i did -- let fidelity be your guide. call fidelity at...
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welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market site in a dark and dreary times square. >> it is.. >> it is. time fore"fast flash" where we alert you to a major stock milestone. the home builder etf hitting a new high. up 21% for the year. helping today comments from the weyerhaeuser ceo saying perhaps you're seeing a bottom in terms of sentiment when it comes to the housing market. any buyers of this eft here? >> not particularly high on my list of things that i want to
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buy.y. still go back the challenged in this space. you need to see further stabilization. >> i would rather buy the timber plays, latin america, ara, vcp. i would also buy cement. the biggest cement companies in the world have been the most beaten up. >> the stocks trading the third week in a row, the gains in july jumped 9%. are the stocks in for a down week as the earnings season winds down and the mighty jobs report looms? mike, what are you seeing in the options pit in terms of buying protection? >> well, you know, it was a really interesting week. because obviously the week was very strong early. usually when the week is strong like that you would expect to see volatility on the vix index coming in. it didn't come in as much as we might expect.. we did see one big trade early in the week on wednesday. somebody traded the october 30, 42 1/2 risk reversal. what does that mean?? they sold the 30 put. they bought the 32.50 calls and they traded this thing. delta neutral. what they think is the
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volatility will stick where it is right now. not going materially higher. not going materially lower between now and october. so, the first thing i would say is pretty much status quo. the other thing looking at the earnings that are coming next week, there's a lot of names reporting. some of the consumer names.s. we've got procter & gamble and clorox. i was taking a look at whole foods, seeing options activity. the stock has been doing fairly well in here. but the options were looking a little bit guarded. volatilities were a little bit higher. another name coming out next week, mgm, there, too, we've had a lot of news out in this space. lvs and some of the other things. here it looks like everybody thinks the news is out. the answer seems to be what tim and joe were saying at the top where people are sitting on the sidelines and saying what and see what happens.s. we're not going to expect a whole lot of changes. >> yoda. >> all right, for more options trading ideas don't forget to watch mike and myself every friday night on "options action at 11:30 p.m.st
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rve in the history of professional tennis. so i've come to this court to challenge his speed. ...on the internet. i'll be using the 3g at&t laptopconnect card. he won't so i can book travel plans faster, check my account balances faster. all on the go. i'm bill kurtis and i'm faster than andy roddick. (announcer) "switch to the nations fastest 3g network" "and get the at&t laptopconnect card for free". announcer: some people buy a car based on the deal they get. - others buy the car of their dreams. - ( beeps ) during the lexus golden opportunity sales event, you can do both. it's an opportunity today. it's a lexus forever. special lease offers now available on the 2009 es 350.
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let's do the "final trade." tim? >> brazilian supermarket cbd. >> asset managers, look at rjf. >> looking ahead. chevron. >> joe? >> don't like the price action
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in google. keep your eye on it. it looks lower. >> i'm melissa lee, don't forget to watch "instant replay" and "option action" have a great weekend.

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