week. under the agreement, microsoft will provide the search technology for yahoo!'s website. the alliance could run up against anti-trust concerns in washington. a summer rally a key economic number on friday and earning season stronger than many had predicted. so is the recovery finally here? joining me now to help answer that question is moodyseconomy.com's chief economist mark zandi. great to have you back with us, thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> what did you make of the gdp number, down 1%? we're still seeing contractions. boy, that was a lot better than we saw initially. is this what you were expecting? >> it was better than i expected. the recession it turns out was more severe than we originally estimated. i think it is laying the groundwork for a better recovery. i am encouraged by these numbers, yes. >> how strong a recovery do you expect? a lot of people talk about the recession perhaps coming to an end, but the recovery is really what we need to worry about now, because they're talking about it

being pretty bleak. what's your view? >> i think the recession is coming to an end. i think recovery will begin in the current quarter. my sense is the recovery will be somewhat disappointing. we're not going to get a lot of growth at least not through the first part of 2010. economists have gotten to using these alphabet letters to describe the shape of the recovery. i would characterize it by a "u." so the early parts of the recovery will be modest at best. >> when do you think the jobs market turns around, mark? is this going to be a jobless recovery? >> i think we won't really see substantive job growth until the second half of 2010, maybe even as late as early 2011. so, yeah, i think one could characterize that as jobless recovery. we have a ways to go. we lost 2.1 million jobs in the first quarter, 1.3 million in the second. i think we'll lose 750,000 in the current quarter.

by next spring, hopefully, we get a stabilized job market and by 2010 hopefully meaningful job growth. >> where is the growth in the economy right now if there is any, would you say? we saw pretty good housing numbers. the case shiller housing index showed housing prices were up for the first time in three years. is that important and where do you see growth? >> yeah. that is important. the housing slide is ground zero for the recession and the problems with the financial system. it is very encouraging that long slide is coming to an end. probably have some more house price declines to go, but they'll be modest compared to what we've been through. the growth right now occurring in health care, educational services, federal government because of the stimulus. i think as we make our way into next year, we'll start to see growth in wholesaling, transportation, trade. by this time next year, we'll see professional services kicking in, everything from accounting and legal services to management consulting services. >> what about the earnings season?

what's your assessment of what we just saw? a lot of companies reporting better than expected numbers but largely due to cost cuts not really seeing much revenue growth, are we? >> that's consistent with the idea the recession is coming to an end, but the early parts over the recovery will be quite modest. the fact businesses were able to rein in their costs and maintain profit margins is encouraging in the sense the recession will come to an end. they can end their cost cutting. it also suggests they'll be cautious in hiring and investing and expanding their operations until they really see sales pick up. that will take a bit of time. so it is consistent with the idea that the recession is ending, but the recovery will be muted. >> do you think we need a second stimulus package? what about policies coming out of washington? is the stimulus working, and do we need a second one? >> i think it's premature to know.

i'm very encouraged by what the stimulus has done so far. i don't think it's any accident the recession is coming to an end now because this is when the current stimulus package is providing its maximum benefit to the economy. we have to wait until the end of the year to gage whether it's enough, whether the economy is on sound ground, whether the recovery is gaining traction. my suspicion is the economy probably could use a little bit more help, perhaps an extension of cash for clunkers program, which is working marvelously well apparently. perhaps expansion to the housing tax credit because that's helping the housing market, to state governments so they don't cut their budget and help to unemployed workers because unemployment is going to stay high and lots of people are going to be out of work for a long time. i don't think we'll call it stimulus. it's difficult now given the political environment, but i think we will find policymakers providing more help to the economy. >> a lot of focus this week is on the health care bill. from an economic point of view,

what do you want to see and what do you hope is not in the final bill? >> well, three things have to happen to make this reform successful. first, most importantly, we have to insure most of the uninsured otherwise, it's not worth doing. second, we have to creditably pay for that. we have to make sure that the costs of insuring the uninsured is paid for and finally, we need to have a reform that lowers the growth and future health care costs because if we don't do that, it's going to break the bank. >> a great point. mark, thanks so much. we appreciate your time today. thanks for joining us. >> thanks, maria. >> we'll see you soon. mark zandi. meanwhile, getting consumers to open their wallets. the advertising market starting to pick up perhaps. and emerging stronger companies on the other side. that's what ceos are talking to me about this week. here they are in their own words. >> emotionally, our company is very different. i think that it's even stronger.

sometimes, when you go through the fire together and manage, that brings the whole team together. i think there's generally better sentiment out there. a few months ago, we were all concerned about the advertising market is going. and that's because advertisers were concerned about their own companies. and now i think people see that there will be a recovery eventually. >> our intention is to offer great products and encourage the reluctant consumer who otherwise would prefer spending to buy. i do believe the holiday season in america generally is going to be much stronger than it was last holiday because we had no christmas. up next on the "wall street journal report," he owns the cubs, "tribune" company, but he has his eye on real estate all over the world. where sam zell is investing his dollars these days. and how tightening adults help senior citizens and children personally and

financially and families come egg together when nest eggs are broken. as we take a break, look at how the stock market ended the week. we know why we're here. to stand behind all who serve. ♪ to deliver the technologies... vital to freedom. ♪ to help carry hope to those in need. ♪ around the globe, the people of boeing... are working together -- for what matters most. that's why we're here. ♪

most people try to get rid of algae, and we're trying to grow it. the algae are very beautiful. they come in blue or red, golden, green. algae could be converted into biofuels... that we could someday run our cars on. in using algae to form biofuels, we're not competing with the food supply. and they absorb co2, so they help solve the greenhouse problem, as well. we're making a big commitment to finding out... just how much algae can help to meet... the fuel demands of the world.

welcome back. sam zell is a maverick. he sells when others are buying, buys when others are selling inside knows the world of real estate better than just about anybody. i spoke with him this week. >> i think i was on your program about six months ago. i think "the times" said i thought by the end of the summer we would be reaching

equilibrium. it doesn't mean prices of housing go up, but we're basically moving toward a position where housing prices have stopped going down. i'm just talking simple family housing. >> exactly. >> the key to everything in my opinion is single family housing. >> why? >> that's where consumption comes from. if people don't have confidence in the value of their biggest asset, they're not going to have confidence to spend money. >> right. >> as far as we're concerned, we believe that once housing stabilizes, it will stabilize the rest of the consumer side of the market. >> give me your assessment of commercial real estate. people are talking about loans coming due next six months to a year. this could be another shoe to drop and really impact the financial services sector, broadly speaking. what do you expect? >> i expect just the opposite. i think the commercial real estate sector is definitely under water. if you look at institutional real estate, say, between 2000

and 2007, some enormous percentage, 50%, 60%, of all the institutional real estate was sold and, therefore, releveraged. and all of that is under water. on the other hand, with interest rates where they are, you have people being able to carry the mortgage, so i don't think you'll see any significant foreclosures of institutional assets until the point at which they can't cover. and i think that's probably two to three years away. >> so you look around the world. where do you think real estate is two to three years from now? you mentioned real estate the last time we spoke. >> yes. i guess i would say my number one country in the world for investment is brazil. and we have a very significant real estate presence in brazil. and it's growing. our enthusiasm for brazil is one. it's elective.

it's leftist, and we like them. two, it's got 180 million people so it has scale. three, it's energy self-sufficient. four, it's commodity self-sufficient. and they have an educated and trained work force. >> let me switch gears, sam, you are a man that wears many hats, one of them head of tribune. i know you probably hate this subject. you said it was a mistake when you did the deal after. we know the company filed for chapter 11 in december. where does that stand? what can you tell us? >> i think the company filed in december. i think it's going to turn out that it being the first to file is going to be an enormous advantage for it in the future because it will solve its problems without destroying itself in the process. we're obviously in the bankruptcy court. no plan has been put forward yet although everybody is working on one. and i suspect that some time between now and maybe as early

as the end of the year, it will exit from bankruptcy. >> people are watching magazines fold, newspapers fold. is this a dying business without the internet? >> well, i think there's a very serious question as to how big the print business will be in the future. it certainly will not be as big as it has been in the past. at the same time, i think it's naive to think that the print business, as we know it, will disappear completely. >> what's happening with the chicago cubs, sam? obviously very near and dear to many people in chicago. what's the latest? >> they're in first place. >> in first place. how about bidders? >> well, the answer is that i suspect that in the very near future, the situation will get resolved. >> my thanks to sam zell. up next on the "wall street journal report," expert advice on caring for your relatives as they grow older. what plans you need to make now to protect your money and theirs. if your investment has taken

a hit recently, you are not alone. a man at the center of the storm is feeling a little less wealthy as well.

44 million americans are providing unpaid health care for older relatives and they must balance busy lives in a role reversal looking after aging parents, a position that can take a toll on careers,

relationships and more, as one member of a multigenerational household told us. >> my mom was getting on. i had already started doing more and more for her. i started looking at bills. and it's not easy to run one household and pay childcare. and two households and have someone who might be able to help mom. we looked at one house, and we bought it. and we moved in pretty quickly. it is a struggle. it's not the easiest thing to combine two women who lived on their own for a long time. there's still only one kitchen. >> would you believe that was grandma? >> what were you doing that day? >> mom grew up in the social security era. i think the general belief was money was taken out of your paycheck and while it may not have been a set pension plan, you sold your big house, moved to a smaller house, sold your business and retired and you should be okay. that's not supporting anybody anymore. >> this economy is pretty difficult to put anything away.

you just can't do it. i'm just happy that i had this. how many women are that fortunate, really, to live with their grandchild? >> it's now scary because now three of us are dependent on one salary in a risky situation and a home we've all grown to love. >> joining me now is andy cohen founder and ceo of caring.com, an online elder care advice site. great to have you on the program. >> great to be here. >> thank you for joining us. when you think about what's involved with caring for older parents and older people in your life, it's really an amazing feat, and this is a helpful advice site that you have. >> absolutely. we just did a survey and found out 45% of people are providing financial assistance to their parents, and most of them are worried about their own retirement on top of that so it's a huge financial issue as well as emotional issue. >> you have more than 40% of baby boomers contributing financially to their aging parents' care or livelihood. how does that generation manage

care giving with their own lives? >> it's one of the biggest challenges. the three big challenges people have are balance, balancing their work and their marital relationship on top of care giving. >> and their savings and retirement. >> and their retirement, too. having those tough conversations with your parents. we did a survey, people would rather talk to their parents about funerals than finances or driving. three, a tremendous feeling of guilt because people think they're not doing enough for their parent when they're really doing as well as they could just feeling badly about it. >> what are the most common financial mistakes caregivers make when they take on this role? >> three mistakes a lot of caregivers make, number one don't max out all the entitlements they're due. if their parent was ever in the military or a state employee, they're entitled to benefits, and most folks don't know the parents' benefit levels. we built a feature on this site in partnership with national council of aging a benefits

check-up allows them to check 1,600 databases and see if there are any entitlements their parents are due. i had a friend whose dad was in the navy and he was paying a lot of expenses out of pocket. if he had done the benefits check-up, he would have realized his dad had money due. the other common mistake, they spend their assets instead of parents' assets. for tax reasons, it's much better to spend their parents' assets down first and might involve reverse life insurance, reverse policy and reverse mortgage and spending their assets down and better to spend their parents' assets first before dipping into their own money. >> that's a hard discussion to have with your parents. >> absolutely. parents want to leave an inheritance and take care of you. you really need to convince them they should spend the money on themselves first and you're better off taxwise for doing that. the other big mistake is they don't have their legal documents in place. five legal documents everybody's parents should have to avoid probate and other tough things. a will, a revocable living

trust, a medical directive or living will, which is parents telling how they want equipment to be used at the end of their life and then two powers of attorney. one for health care so you can make health care decisions on their behalf if they can't, and, durable power of attorney for finances so you can pay their bills and credit card statements if they can't. and most peoples' parents do not have those five documents. so on the site on caring.com we encourage people to get those five documents in place. >> your site, caring.com has all this advice on a variety of topics. is it true most of your employees or contributors have experience as caregivers. >> 100% all are or have been caregivers. passionate about helping people. >> thank you for being on the program. caring.com. >> up next on the "wall street journal report," we look at the news this upcoming week that will have an impact on your money. and then, how about ben bernanke's money?

the fed chairman gives us a peek inside his portfolio. he is not immune to a rough market.

the gold delta skymiles credit card... from american express... it's the official card... of the world's largest airline. and it's the only credit card... that earns miles on delta. miles that take you... to more places than ever before. over 350 destinations worldwide. so switch today. get up to 25,000 bonus miles-- good for a free flight. call now to apply. there's no annual fee for the first year... and you can redeem... with no blackout dates or seat restrictions. these are just a few of the benefits... of carrying the official card of delta air lines. switch now and you can earn miles... on delta with your purchases: groceries, gas, entertainment, and more. get up to 25,000 bonus miles... with the gold delta skymiles credit card. call 1-800-skymiles to apply. this is the official card... of the world's largest airline.

for more on our show and guests, go to the website, wsjr.cnbc.com. you'll also find a link to my new blog, maria bartiromo's investor agenda. hope you check it out. here's a look ahead on what may move the markets and impact the coming week. more earnings on tap. second quarter earnings reports

from dow companies procter and gamble and cisco. and auto figures for the month of july and we also find out the amount of manufacturing activity during the month. also ahead, tuesday, the latest data on u.s. personal income and spending will be released. on friday, the labor department reports the new unemployment rate for the total number of jobs the economy lost or gained in the month of july. typically, obviously, a market mover. if you cringe every time you look at your financial statements, you're not alone, we know that. federal reserve chairman ben bernanke's personal wealth has declined by some 25% in the last year. according to an annual disclosure statement released this week, the fed chairman's total worth is reported to be between $850,000 and $1.9 million. down from 1.2 to 2.5 million for 2007. the nation's top financial official does not own any individual stocks, corporate bonds or anything particularly complex.

he keeps his money in a few mutual funds, a savings account and two annuities managed by tiaa cref. that will do it today, thanks for joining us. next week, my guests include chris gardner. hope you'll join us. keep it here where wall street means main street. i'll see you next weekend.

america, the wealthiest country in the world, cannot afford to care for its people. the question, how to pay for the millions of americans without health insurance? all just one step away from medical catastrophe and financial ruin. it's a debate that gets to the heart of who we are as a nation, pitting neighbor against neighbor, patient against insurer, and the outcome will determine the haves and the have nots. president obama swept into office on the promise of a more equal america. we demanded change. >> this is about every family, every business and every taxpayer who continues to shoulder the burden of a problem that washington has failed to solve for decades.

>> now, change is coming, but is it the kind of change we want? many fear the price tag for change will ruin the quality of care, endanger our economy, and diminish our stature as a global leader, bringing to light crucial questions. how much is a life worth? is one life worth more than another? and will health care reform come at the expense of capitalism? tonight, the brightest names in industry and government come together to move the conversation forward in "meeting of the minds: the future of healthcare." good evening. i'm maria bartiromo. tonight, i'm joined by an extraordinary panel of leaders, thinkers and visionaries who each have a stake in the most important debate facing americans today, health care. thank you all for being here very much. we appreciate your time. america has reached an

inflection point. we are a nation of nearly 50 million