well see if we can see that this morning. ford, watch the autos. although that cash for clauunke thing is still in doubt for them topaz it before they go on vacation. ford expected report first sales increase. in korea, hyundai's kia unit had an increase. amazon, boost to the dow. goldman sachs upgrading it on part of the early auto cycle. look at earnings winners. humana, cost cutting here is really what is is bringing it higher as opposed to the top line continues to be soft. and the banks in focus, give us a bit of a tail wind. we saw the european banks, barclays put in better than expected earnings. ubs not likely to pay a fine in c . brian shactman over at the nasdaq, big changes on the aing board. >> eric schmidt, ceo of google stepping down from the board. the fcc looking into the rejection of a google app to the

iphone. both stocks up in premarket trade. i want to talk about bear issues over the weekend. ebay up 4 1/2% on the baron's. says there's room to run with the stock. especially if teams are compared to amazon.com. they say 30% to the upside in the next year. also, tech trader talk says microsoft the deal is good for both. yahoo! long-term revenue, positive. microsoft gets a much better deal than they could have gotten a year ago. pharmaceuticals are off the lows. they rejected their gout drug. wall street surprise bid that. ubs price target at $55. $51.57. quickly talk about consults, whole host of issues. chairman and ceo steps down. restating earnings. just dealing with a lot of issues. five downgrades, no less than that just today alone. let's go to sharon epperson at

the nymex. >> oil prices right near $71 a barrel. the highest price we've seen in over a month. we're looking at a run here of about $7 in just three sessions. keep in mind the oil prices collapsed over two days in the middle of the week last week. looked like we're making that run. ford says $73 resistance level, maybe $75 a barrel here. we're looking atle several factors helping to propel oil prices today, namely news out of china. economic data there, manufacturing activity rose for the fifth straight month. factory output that is strong a well. add to that the weakness in the dollar. the dollar index at the lowest level of the year. you have strength across the board in the energy complex as well as commodities like copper. copper prices have more than doubled in the past year. and that strength in china a big reason why. rick santelli, to you in chicago. >> thanks, sharon. well, this is the story. right here the u.s. green back. even with month end influences

pushing the dollar extremely down on friday, it continues to hold its momentum to the downside. the lowest numbers since september of last year. you know, think about it this way. if the dollar goes down, why should i be able to use weaker dollars to buy things like gold at the same price? so if the dollar goes down a few percent, the price of goelgd ld to go up just to stay the same.. that dynamic, of course, has various influences in the fundamental, even things like crude oil has a huge effect. watch the dollar. now let's go to guy johnson in london. >> we are watching the dollar very, very closely, rick santelli. i can tell you that. commodity stocks are really moving over here in europe. it's the simple trade. rick just ran you through exactly what is happening. the next piece in the puzzle is that the equities related to those commodities obviously move higher.. mining stocks, oil stock moving up around the euro. we are up nicely green across

the screen. let's talk about the banks though. because here's the really exciting story, i think, coming out of europe today. hsbc, this is europe's biggest bank, truly global bank, up by 4.8% today. now, profit is hard from this period last year from the first half to the second half last year. but it's the same period this year, we have profit. the investment banking division has seen profit doubling those during that period. investment banking is the prime driver.. barclays missed expectations today but, again, it is the investment banking division that is growing. hsbc also painting a much more positive picture moving forward from here. we were hearing bertha talk about what's happening with ubs. it looked like it got a deal with the doj. that's likely to be confirmed on friday. we also get ubs' numbers out

yesterday. that's a wrap of europe. let's check out all the action over in asia, though.h. >> hey, good morning, everybody. asian markets had a strong session today. especially for banks and some of the auto plays out here. not surprising to given the numbers that we have. reporting the quarterly profits up nearly 50 percent from the same period a year ago. in terms of autos, looking out for the big one tomorrow. toyota coming out with the earnings numbers. given the cut of numb bess we've seen seeing from the auto plays in japan, a lot of investors willing to put money back on the table and willing to take on some of the riskier bets, i should say. in terms of economic data, especially pmi numbers coming out of china, above 50 for the fourth month in a row, certainly giving more conviction to the growth story coming out of china. over, let's take a look at how the market are. nikkei slower four points.

south korean market higher by half a percent.t. the hang seng and shanghai composite putting on gains of more than 1% today. but going forward, it's really all going to be about the jobs numbers we're going to get out of the u.s. this friday. of course, the ism numbers due out later tonight. asia thai will be a precursor of things to come. perhaps we could get more caution m going into trade tomorrow. that's it for me. it's back to you. >> all right. nissan motor unveiling the new electric car. the nissan leaf as in leaf on a tree. now they got it. it will launch late next year in the u.s., japan, and europe. ceo carlos goen l. says the consider will be 10% of over all global vehicles by 2020, in about a decade. >> what is very important for us is that the consumer considers that buying an electric car is a

good economy decision. we don't want them to say, well, i have zero emissions but i have to pay a big premium for this. no. >> hey, baby, want to take a ride in my leaf? i don't think this is going to work. anyway, nissan says electric cars are kncar s are not in competition with hybrids. unlike hybrids, electric cars are zero emission vehicles and close to zero sales. >> what, you've got a problem with that name, huh? >> the name also, i happen to know, is the range is only about 110 miles? so, i don't know. i don't think they're quite there yet.. >> well, a man can dream, mr. ghosn, a man can dream. eric schmidt is resigning from apple's board of directors. that's an interesting twist. jim goldman joins us now on the phone. what is this?

>> interesting development here. a lot of people who have been calling for eric schmidt to resign from aing's board just because of so much overlap between google's businesses now and certainly what apple has done. it started with tir eed the iph google gets into a handset with the g-phone and the thing from t-mobile. that was one issue. then you've got all of these operating system developments. with chrome and various other kinds of things that google is getting involved with. it just was clearer and clearer to just about everybody watching this company and certainly now aing's boa app apple's board that there were too many conflicts. eric schmidt always said he saw no conflict, he saw no issue with this. if one should arise, particularly with iphone, he would simply recuse himself from that part of the discussion. other than that, he enjoyed serving on apple's board. as late as saturday, schmidt was quoted if the "san jose mercury news" talking about just how

important this relationship was, that he maintained his role on apple's board of directors. but clearly, on friday when apple announced that it was taking google voice off of the app store, this was a very significant development and it was likely the tipping point to show just how competitive these two companies were with one another and are becoming with one another and how inappropriate it was for eric schmidt to continue in his role on aippleapple's board of direc. >> james, thank you. jim goldman, silicon valley. up next, nesto's nuggets, stocks to watch at the open, including parts and banks. trading floor on the first trading day of august. will we keep that higher trade and tips on buying computers. companies are still shrinking now, mark, but buy less than they were. what does this mean for

semiconductor sales? it's a huge industry. we'll find out. not long ago, this man had limited mobility.

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value. 70, 80 points on the dow at the open. all right.t. >> let's get over to mr. nesto and find out what big names are on his radar. >> i know you love surprises, whether it's going to a new country or whatever.. we all love a good surprise, usually. if you take a look at the surprise factor this quarter in terms of earning season, it's pretty amazing. we are on track to do something that we haven't done in a long time. it's a big game on wall street. typically about two-thirds of the companies beat the street, come in better than expected. but this time, we are, what, 67% through right now, and earnings growth rate if you will, is minus 29.5%. the surprise factor is 74%. those numbers are meaningful because at the start of the month analysts were looking for a 35 1/2% decline. just a week ago the number was at 31. we're beating and getting better. we have momentum that 7 4%

bigger is the best beat, the best better than expected number that has been available since thompson reuters started compiling these things 15 years ago. as i said, the average is about 63%. this week we'll get 89 s&p 500 reports and 3 dow jones members. so if you take a look at what's really driving that out performance, the staples, the consumer discretionary, and the health care have all come in at least 80% to 85% better than expected. the momentum, auto and auto parts, they featured some auto parts makers, goodyear moving and ford having a nice run of it. also, banks, and particularly some of the regional banks, marshal and icily, regions, all having a nice little leg up here, causing some so scratch heads. building products? what the heck is going on. armstrong doing very, very well. masco one of the best performing

stocks in the s&p 500 over the past week. so keep an eye on that. and also, as we look around the world for opportunity and leadership and how it affects oil and how it affects commodity, we have three adrs that are out and up higher here. these are all pretty large cap companies. rbs world bank of scotland, scottish, there you go, it's hsbc, also higher here today.. the company reporting earnings. and then lastly, panasonic, there we go, i wonder you guys recall what panasonic's actual name is versus the trade name which it adopted much to the delight of the north american consumer. but panasonic higher here today. they're seeing a swing to operating profits in the coming quarter. so nikkei english news service. guys, back to you. >> thank you. up next, stocks around the globe starting off in a pretty good mood. a big day for data here in the

states. in fact, it's going to be a big week, erin. we have a lot of data this week. monthly auto sales, ism on top today. of course, we end friday with the big labor department report. the word on the street and the buzz beyond on the other side of the break. >> that's right. markets up to where they were not at the beginning of the year, before lehman. >> wow. >> talk about something there. who knows if it will last, but that was a statistic of the day for me. later, casino stocks, if the economy is going to rebound, will vegas be one of the first beneficiaries of a little bit of positive thinking on the country? specter spotlight, this is "squawk on the street" on your monday. mr. evans? this is janice from onstar. i have received an automatic signal you've been in a front-end crash. do you need help? yeah. i'll contact emergency services and stay with you.

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the president's economic team hit the sunday talk show circuit this weekend in a big way. larry summers was on nbc's "meet the press" with david gregory crediting the stimulus plan for stopping the economic free-fall. >> the stimulus bill is going to largely play out in the next couple of years. long-term deficits, a central problem. that's why we need to reform health care. >> meantime, treasury secretary timothy geithner said this week that the white house cannot rule out tax hikes to fix the deficit. that's the question of what comes next. there are a number of key economic releases this week which may determine if the economy is strong enough to think about things like tax hikes down the road. the big event, friday's jobs

report. today the institute for supply management has score on manufacturing. we talked a little bit about that. automakers will be releasing july sales throughout the day. we can tell you one thing, those numbers are going to be pretty darn good. tomorrow, personal income and spending and pending home sales come out. wednesday we have the adt employment report which precedes that friday number. we'll also have factory orders and services data coming out. and on thursday, we will get the weekly jobless claims. crucial data point. and interest rate decisions from the european central bank and the bank of england. friday, here's the the big kahuna number. forecasters are look for the economy to lose just over 3,000 jobs last month. mark, as we all know, while that is a horrible thing, in terms of losing jobs, it is a far cry from the 600,000 plus jobs we were losing each month earlier this year.r. down to you. >> thank you, erin. i'm here on the floor with the one and only peter costa, president of empire executions, having an interesting hair day.

where are we headed here, peter? >> no doubt in my mind we're going up. i'm going to new theory for you. as you know the market has been up 7 1/2%. the yankees have been in first place. i think this is a direct correlation between the yankees' success and the market's success. yes, we're going higher. i know you're in total awe of this. >> this is something. >> yeah, this is a new one. i'm throwing this one out there for you. >> for those of us who absolutely hate the yankees. >> you can't fight it, mark. we're going up. probably be up 140 on the opening. i think that what -- the s&ps, to me, i think we're probably 1020, 1040 is going to be the top end. we're getting toward the end of this bull run. >> really? >> yes. i'm getting a very, very good sense for it. >> lightening up? >> i'll tell you what i wouldn't do. i wouldn't go longer anymore.

let the market what it's going to do today because europe did so well. i think longer term, i think maybe you want to stay in your position right now and not add to it too much. you know, when i come on friday -- or thursday, i mentioned, it's the middle of a bull market. i think we're towards the end of it. i'm going to have to fight mr. kudlow on that one. >> that's not a hard thing to do. >> i know. >> mr. kudlow was bullish for 14,000 to 6,000, so, let's not worry about larry's market call. thank you very much. >> thank you. up stairs to erin. >> let's get the buzz from beyond the big board this morning. joining us from charlotte, chief market analyst from evergreen. you heard what he said. we're towards the end of the bull market. what do you say? >> thanks, erin. good morning. i like his yankee correlation. that was interesting.. i do agree, i was concerned last week, if we couldn't bust through 1,000 on a high volume week, last week of the month, i'm hard pressed to see if this

market has enough strength. we may be able to do it over the next couple of days. but i agree all markets don't go straight up. the healthyist thing for this market, we have to find some sort of high or low. 50% retracement from the 670, 680 to 970, 980 level would be about 925ish. i think that would be the healthiest thing for the markets to have some sort of consolidation. hopefully not too painful, maybe a decline or 10%, 15%. and then we can legitimately look for economic recovery and perhaps earnings in the line of skr, maybe $65 in 2010. >> all right. john lynch, thank you very much. we appreciate it. >> my pleasure.e. >> john lynch joining us from charlotte. final countdown of the opening bell is coming your way on the other side of this break. h

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can can't tapital of the world. the opening bell is going to open in less than a minute. the futures entered their electronic session 15 minutes ago at the high point of the session, up 1040. so we're looking at 70, 80 points on the dow at the open. even though oil is up almost two bucks. kind of like a tax increase for consumers. >> and it's something that i notice as we're getting car sales out today. gm sales in china in july, which they've already come out with, we'll get their u.s. numbers later on today. 77.7% higher than they were a year ago. >> and ford is expecting to report higher sales of a year ago for the first time in two years. >> yeah.. this is pretty -- >> there's a lot of good news out there today.y. >> it is pretty incredible. we'll have more on that coming up in a couple of moments.

but here's the bell. >> here's we go. the office depot foundation marking its 2 million backpack donation of school supplies to children. and at the nasdaq, univision channel 41 celebrating its 41st anniversary. don't we own that? >> which one? >> don't we own channel 41? >> i don't know. >> i don't know. >> i don't know. i'm sorry to -- >> oh, telemundo.o. >> moving eigright along. we've got every name on the dow here at the buongiovan. >> we own channel 47 here low cally. also, watch commodities today. we've got the great manufacturing numbers, p mirks,numirks numbers out of china, europe. oil also moving up on the back

end of that news. $70. we're watching the forward post here. we have an indication to open from 860 to 875. close out at $8, of course.. we are expecting good news from ford in a couple hours on those sales numbers being better in july. partly because of that cash for clunkers program.m. also getting an upgrade at buckingham, of course, which is also upgrading auto parks maker board warner and auto nation as well. and 3m getting up at goldman in part because of the early cycle recovery in auto. goldman upping 3m from a buy to a neutral. humana, beat in terms of earnings because of cost controls, but its revenues were still a little light. the cost control seems to be the story of the day. clorox is restructuring. that helped on its bottom line. mgm posting a wider loss as it tries to retire more of the

debt. it does see a pick-up in business in las vegas. tyson beat on strong chicken sales. they cut cost and worked down the inventory. more foods to tell you about. from ubs upgrading wendy's from buy to knew tralg.g. we have a number of upgrades here from retalg. retalg ilers out this thursday. gap, abercrombie is up. >> we're up .9 of 1%. you know the drill. 25% to the upside for the year. 55% to the upside since those march lows. everyone's talking about eric schmidt, ceo of google stepping down from apple's board. not a huge impact on the stock. upside today. it's one of those things we get reports. fcc looking intoi apple's rejection.

they don't report until after the bell on wednesday. ubs comes out today and says, you know what, they're going to report on the high end today. ebay on the cover of baron's saying that even at current price, seem elevated, 30% to the upside in the next year. quick look at the major names. research in motion up 1.3%. oracle is in line with the market.. intel up 1.1%. on the other side of the ledger, they missed on the top line, missed on the bottom line. hit by by 4%. o'reilly out to motive, gown grade to underperform. down %. saveient farm suit suit calls down. fda rejecting their gout drug. that is under serious pressure so far. let's head over to nymex where the oil trade is back in full force with the bulls with sharon. hey, sharon. >> that's right. the bull's in full force in london and in new york. looking at oil prices up $2 on both sides of the atlantic. oil prices in london up over $73

a barrel. and again, the weaker dollar, a big factor here as well as that chinese manufacturing data and refinery. the impact on i refinery tank can be seen and what we're seeing with gas oil. gas oil in london surging at the end of the week. continuing higher today. we do have a refinally that was shut on friday due to a power outage. it has restarted. we're still looking at total looking at their operations in france and jermg agermany. here in the u.s., sunoco having a problem. ralgly here as well. again, it is that dollar strayed that is the one to watch. that is really significant here with oil prices at the highest level since june 29th. sugar is actually at a record high. and copper surging 4% today has doubled in value in the past year. rick santelli to you in chicago. >> thank you, sharon. the best performers today in the

fixed income market, the rates are still higher, reversing much of the trade we saw on friday of last week. the wings, the extreme, two-year maturity and 30-year bond, they are doing the best only up about 3 or 4 basis points. it's the middle of the curve, the inflexion points, fives in particular and tens that are up more. fives are up close to ten basis points. so we want to pay attention in a week where there's only bills. next week we're going to have the august refunding. 3s, 10s, and 30s. no matter how you slice it, the most talked about trade, the largest trade is the dollar. the dollar index friday and today putting together two back-to-back days in territory of pricing we haven't seen since september. why? well, hey, the dollar has no baby sitter. many of the deficits, of course, are impacting the psyche of all those that own dollars. and maybe this continues to get legs because now it has a technical momentum going. remember, they tend to move

inversely. the dollar goes down, hold their value at the same level by pricing higher. mark haines, back to you. stocks starting off in august big time, nicely. improving economic data from around the world, overseas auto sales look good. s&p is closing in on 1,000. we're awfully close. can we reach it? joining us now steve woods, chief market strategist with russell investment. and in san francisco, michael, president and chief with ycm net advisers. michael got up earliest so we'll let him start out. can we make it to -- can we hold, s&p at one,01,000 if we g there? >> i think we can hold. there is a reasonable chance we are going to have a bump down here. we're starting to see -- finally, we're starting to see some seeding of really horrible expectations from analysts. and i think that the numbers are looking actually pretty good.

i think we certainly do need to have top line numbers come in better. we can't just keep going up based on numbers looking better because expenses are being cut. i think we're looking pretty solg l solid here. >> what do you think, steve? what was the art cashin comment, we're going to bounce like it's 1929. some sort of sinister implications. >> remake of the prince song, right? >> yes. do we bounce and do we hold? >> i think it's going to be choppy. the momentum right now is in favor of being upward. you mentioned the global economic data coming in better than feared, perhaps. not as good as expected. i think something a lot of people are going to begin looking at right now is believe it or not residential housing market. i was in a green room a couple days ago with bob shiller talking about indekt and how no mo mem tum driven it is. while he wasn't ready to call a bottom, so momentum driven that perhaps there's housing front and if we can get a little bit of pressure coming up, another

biggie, unemployment, i think we're beginning to build something of a base. we think that by the fourth quarter we exit the recession in the united states. inventory cycles.. i think you're beginning to see companies that could drive revenue, as you mentioned earlier, going into 2010. that's going to be the differentiation. >> so, michael, do you share steven's thoughts on the housing market? >> i think it probably is pretty close to a bottom. i do actually think that. most of the housing market, not certainly the high end. the high end is still getting killed on a monthly basis. if you look at what is happening, it appears that it's performing and i think it is going to be the driver for the banks. if the banks get haelg thiealth gives us a good foundation. >> then what is the new normal and how quickly can you grow, which i suppose is a broader issue. you, steve, you say we're going to get revenue growth.

>> uh-huh. >> we're not going to get back to where we were a few years ago but we are going to get growth. >> i think so. i'm not convinced there's going to be an etf rising tide in both the market environment. i think you've shown you can cut costs in a challenging environment.t. okay. but who are the great companies? you heard the stories before that can take market share away from their competitors. i do believe it's going to be a slower growth environment. you've got the consumer and average american, that negative savings rate coupled on that mortgage equity withdraw, 7%, 7 1/2 of savings. i think it will be closer to ten by the end of the year. i think you're going to have to look at a global portfolio. kr you're going to need to not have u.s. versus everyone else. i think also you're going to need to look in areas of fixed income. you're going to have to expand your investment. i think people are going to invest for longer, draw less because there's only so many leverag leveraged. you're going to have to give something up.

a lot of people -- but also for people that were really burned and lost a lot of money, fixed income, investment grade may not be a bad plan b if they're really damaged and can't get to that optimal portfolio. >> what is your best idea today? >> i think you need to be global. half of the companies that we invest in are enter nshlgsinter. i think the u.s. is going to be probably 40% slower gdp growth. and i do still think the corporate bond play, still capital to be made. not just in long term. i think there's capital being made as people unwind treasuries. i think treasuries will get unwound. don't forget commodities. i think if global growth re-emerges, i think commodities are still going to be a good place to be. >> thank you both very much for sharing your thoughts. up next, closer to normal. the president of the

semiconductor industry association takes us inside the latest numbers from his global chip sales report. >> closer to a -- >> closer to normal. plus, mgm, not a mirage. mark, the stock is up. it has tripled since the bottom. so, but it's pulling back more than 40% so far this year. can the company get its game back? we're going to get the analysts from oppenheimer to get his take. we were going to be up about 140. we'll see if we can hold it. announcer: some people buy a car based on the deal they get. others buy the car of their dreams. during the lexus golden opportunity sales event, you can do both. it's an opportunity today. it's a lexus forever. special lease offers now available on the 2009 is 250.

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worldwide sales of semi conductors in the second quarter up 17%. that's if you compare them to the first quarter. compared to a year ago, down 20%. the industry association says that the fourth consecutive increase on a month basis is one indicator. but the industry is returning to normal growth pattern. joining us here to talk about it, george scali. so you can look this quarter

compared to last quarter, this month compared to last month or compared to a year ago. but if you had to really gauge whether companies and tech companies are building things, big companies are ordering more computers, what can you see in this data? >> a couple of things. the data that we have suggests that pcs, although they may be down, but they aren't going to be down nearly as much as had been anticipated for the year. 40% of our demand is going to be in pc consumption. that's one. another is cell phones. cell phones are going to be down a bit, but nothing like we thought they were.e. we thought it would be in double digits. now they're thinking 5% to 8% range or so. those are both good indicators. i think beyond that, the fact that inventory is really in balance, we reacted quickly, didn't build any inventory. it's in balance now. i think if you look at that curve, you'll see that it's turning up rather quickly. i think that's the reason for that. >> pc sales, what's going to

drive pc sales? >> well, the largest growth mark for pcs today is in the developing world. you look at china and india, they have both upped their forecast for gdp growth this year. and there's going to be a lot of demand right there alone.e. you can say the same thing for cell phones, two-thirds of us in the developing world. >> it's going to be non-u.s., your industry for a while at least? >> yeah. and again, i think that's been the case for some time now. yeah. >> so, where are the fabs now? we talked about this last time. >> right, yeah. >> and i'd like to kind of keep track of that.t. we still have a lot of fabs in the u.s. of is this overseas demand resulting in a shifting of where we make them? >> with still have a lot of fabs in the u.s. we still are investing in new state-of-the-art leading edge

technology, leading edge capability here in the u.s. both in terms of wafer size, 12-inch wafers, at the load level, dimension level.l. as a consequence of that, still about 70% of the u.s.-based companies, production is taking place here in the u.s. and we think that's going to continue for the next few years. >> do you know what i don't hear anymore, and maybe it's because we've got bigger fish to fry or bigger problems? but i used to hear all the time about advances in the technology. the 12-inch wafer, that's the 300 millimeter, right? >> yes. >> and i remember always hearing about new deposit techniques. but i don't hear about that anything. >> well, i think it's become so much a part of the fabric of the industry it's just continuing to happen. we invest as an industry through the sia about $100 million a year, university research, dealing with key strategic technologies that will keep us on moore's law.knocking it off

year after year and as a result it's become part of the fabric. >> when was the peak for semiconductor sales, 2006 when we saw housing peak, too? >> no, last year. >> last year. >> $248 billion. >> so do you think that we will get back to, let's just call it break even, back to where we were then, and then grow off of that peak? >> oh, yeah. >> any time soon?? >> i think we will. again, it may take a couple of years to get back to that level again, but what we're looking at a forecast this year is to drop about 20% from last year. supposed to be down to $195 billion. actually where we are today, given that we're 20% down year to year now. and remember last year it dove at the end of the year. this year we expect to be accelerating. i think there's a chance we will beat our forecast. >> it's amazing when you think about that way. it comes from over seas to get back to where we were and when you look at something driven by overseas growth. in the u.s., how long will it take for housing prices to get

back to that peak. >> yeah. all right. thank you very much, sir. appreciate the update. all right. mgm, mirage, or not? wider than expected loss coming out of the casino giant. what is the trade? but first, stocks on the move, including alcoa and freeport mcmar ran. i'm assuming that el nesto grande has those for us after the break. you're watching "squawk on the street."

hi. a little too early to go with metallica's enter sandman, but if you're into heavy metal, you're making money today, if not listening to the music. check it out. alcoa, the hottest stock in the dow today. up 4%. freeport macmorran. and at last check, teer materiae the best performing sector.. up 2%.

all 28 members were pushing higher here today.y. the same cannot be said for cigna. downgraded from equal wait to overweight at morgan stanley. giving back 3% early.y. it's getting a bid. remember, they had much better than expected earnings just a few days ago. there's some interest in this company. but some concerns surrounding the political uncertainty. oshkosh, oh, my god, look at that full-year tally, would you, please. up 230%. another 7% higher. another billion dollar morder for the mind resistant atvs. they can't make them fast enough. eta owned by lowe's is coming up with much better than resulted stock. up by 10%. lastly, mgm, what, what to do, what to do, i'm glad i'm not an analyst on this one. lots of charges, lots of tweaks. more shares, debt moving. if you look at the business of the revenue per available room was down 31%. they do say that the room rates

in las vegas are rebounding. but the occupancy also slid to 94% from 97%, which still seems pretty darn full. but mgm was up 7%, now up about 2%. mark, back to you. >> matt nesto. stick right t, matt.. don't go anywhere. shares of mgm are getting a bit of a boost this morning. are the tough times over for this casino operator? joining us now, david cash of oppenheimer and el nesto grande at hq. what do you think, tough times over? >> i don't think the tough times are over. i think the remainder of this year is going to be under pressure.. you have a national ban on any kind of fund of business travel. >> i know. >> we need that to lift in order to get things better.. i would poupd r point out that there was slight or sequential for the first quarter.

>> all right. so would you buy the stocks? >> we're in knew tlal neutral o. i think you have a potentially great stock call on a rebound in las vegas. that ban on funds starts to ease next year, which i think it's reasonably assume for they might. it's going to open in december. and some things for mgm that they need to deal with, in particular, 2500 condos under contract and now we don't know how many are going to close. that's a lot of money and those are some issues. plus, they impact on the remainder of the portfolio.o. it's a critical issue. >> have we heard from all the casino companies that are still alive this quarter? >> las vegas sands came out but they had their chinese results. remember, they do more than half of their revenue in macaw and it's been very, very strong.. i'm going to ask david, if he has a preferred play in the gaming sfgame ing space.

mgm is much more tied to vegas than like sands is. >> i think your point is correct. it's difficult to comp anyone with mgm at this point because they are really a strict company. they have half property in macaw, half in atlantic city and others. they're really a las vegas strip company. when you talk about wynn and others, they're more asian than h las vegas strip at this point. they're not really a good comp. at this point, no, we're not recommending any of those. >> david, what about the mass of that problem with a lot of these companies? have any of them dug out from it? is there any company who has done with a massive refinancing problem or over leveraged situation or are they all high risk? >> i think wynn has probably turned out to be the most fi fiscally prudent of the group. our challenge with wynns a always been what do you pay for that stock, not is wynn the best

operator out there. we always get into trouble when at 17, 18 times ebita and we think it's a little bit expensive. but wynn appears to be the most secure of the group. we talk about the regionals with you before.. we like those. >> thank you very much. we appreciate it. sounds like a lot of those regionals. we'll be back. >> all right. don't go away. hey mom i need some minutes.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." july ism, remember, last month it was the best since august and it improved. since august was 49 and change, still the comp, 48.9 is the headline number. prices moved up from 50 to 55.0. remember, prices paid isn't necessarily the inflation gauge that most look at. but, especially today when we see commodities up, one of the big varl variables is how they are hitting the dollar big time. out year deficits catching up to the green back. that could continue to propel things like copper. at least have huge influence. crude oil, the aftermath of this, rates are ticking a bit higher.. remember, in the middle of the curve today, 5s, 10s are up.

reversing much of the good will from the end of the month trade last friday. the dollar last friday was down. it's down again today.y. construction spending up.3 and revised number from last month moving from down .9 to down .8. it's pretty decent numbers. look at the euro currency, it's hovering around 143. the pound, believe it or not, 168 1/2. many believe it will continue to go higher. both central banks in europe meet thursday.. once they get the refunding announcement on august, see how much 3s, 10s, and 30s we will have after that.. mark haines, back to you. >> thank you very much, sir. quick check on the market nszs response to the data. right now, up 73. that's about toward the top end of the range.. not quite at the top but toward the top. the s&ps, which we've been watching closely, waiting for it to breakthrough 1,000. as you can see there, up 10 1/4.

but just a little shy of 1,000. and the nasdaq doing nicely, up 20 points, which is almost 1% on a percentage basis, the dow is the trailer. erin? >> mark, thank you. bertha and i were watching. we saw it tick above 50. but still, 48.9. we're going to get closer and closer. that is the line between expansion and contraction. still contracting. >> what people are watching is the expansion in china. as you know, china spent a lot of money on this stimulus. a lot of money into their manufacturing. now up four months in a row. they are up above 50. the uk for the first time saw its manufacturing move up year over year for the first time since march of 2008.. so this morning those are up very early on the worldwide exchange. futures moved up. oil moved up. and commodities are on fire today. we've got copper up at a ten-month high. we are also seeing the metals and miners moving higher. alcoa strong on the dow.

the hard metals pretty much doing well. c chanalco, china's aluminum company, is up. it's like we're pumping all that energy in but are we setting ourselves up for a bit of a low here? for example, take a look at the autos. ford is up. we're all excited about the cash for clunkers moving people into the showrooms. then what? what's going to continue to carry the out to maautomakers, here in the snus. >> for that, it's the overall company, up 63. maybe people are going to wait and see, what is the new next? let's get to the nasdaq. brian, i know that you're looking at a couple of specific stories there. >> yep. >> eric schmidt, ceo of google, getting off the apple board. jim goldman has been talking quite a bit about this. what are you seeing in terms of stock reaction? >> it's positive on both sides of the fence. they're out performing, 1.7%.

and what it seems to be is clarity if i mean, you have a situation where on the one side the ftc was wondering whether this relationship was anticompetitive and they were looking at that.t. late last week you had the ftc sending out letters looking at rejection on google application of the iphone. i guess the take is this clarity, the gloves are off and we'll see what happens from here. both stocks very strong today. >> and what about tip sales? we were talking to george scalise. i think it was interesting that in a year we could be back where we were at the peak. what are you seeing in semiconductor stock? >> they're up across the board. you see intel just went negative but the philly semi conduct up is up. the sia said second quarter sales were up over first quarter at intel. that's net positive.

intel basically in mid july said the exact same thing when they reported earnings. let's not forget, what investors and viewers should know that the nasdaq rallied 10% since intel reported, that was basically the smart. so we're not breaking new ground here, but semiconductors still obviously interpreting this as positive news. >> thank you very much, brian shactman. there's your market. but oil may be more important than anything stock related today, mark. >> yes, indeed.. thank you very much, erin. crude prices moving dramatically higher. more than two bucks higher. let's get to sharon epperson in the pit. what is going on? >> rick and bertha laid it out pretty well. it had a lot to do with the dollar and the manufacturing data. we've gotten from china and from the uk. all of that is helping to spur oil prices as well as commodity complex higher. we're looking at oil that looks like it could be heading toward that key resistance level. pointed out from md global.

report today of $73.40. that is triple territory. they say you can't rule out $75 oil even though we haven't seen any real headline to propel it to that level. the technical trade on the dollar and on equities could take us there. keep in mind we are looking at prices as well that are in technical territory for heating oil, gasoline as well. big surge there. even natural gas up over 5% on the back of oil being the high. still plenty of supply out there when you look at the opec data coming out. latest survey from reuters saying they are producing above their quota by over 1 million barrels. let's send it over to you for stocks to watch. >> i'm taking on this today. small cap member of the russell 2,000, company coming out with earnings that beat on the bottom line. the top line a little bit soft than expected. they kept their full-year forecast down about 4 1/2% as you can see here today. so no action there. if you take a look at some of

these british banks here today, i don't know if this is good news or bad news or late to the party or early but they're all coming in with less worse than expected results. they're all sharply higher here today. so maybe we're seeing the decoupling trade decoupling again. i don't know what the w decoupling acronym would be. we've got energy names and builders and the market loves them all ahead of those numbers. chesapeake will be out after the close today. 3% higher as i speak. check out pulte, the homebuilders have been on a tear.. up 30% since the wee bull market began on july 13th. both of them will report after the close. coffee drinkers, perk it up, baby. down 6% on green mountain coffee but you've had a heck of a year. you're up over 150%. the company announcing they're going to do a 4 million share

offering to pay down debt. keep it clean and lean and mean. but it's a 10% dilution and the stock is weak on the news. >> thank you, matt nesto. up next, economists, optimistic indeed. according to a new cnbc survey, then congresswoman betty sutton of ohio, the original sponsor for the cash for clunkers bill is going to join us on more with keeping the program going. plus, we jam with the ceo of the r rock 'n roll hall of fame. "squawk on the street" coming "squawk on the street" coming right back.r at risk for diabete. introducing new nutrisystem d, the clinically tested program for losing weight and reducing blood sugar. hi i'm mike, and i lost 100 pounds on nutrisystem d when i was first diagnosed with diabetes, that first step was more like a giant leap. till i discovered nutrisystem d. in a clinical study people on nutrisystem d lost 16

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economists optimistic, appearing in the same sentence, mark. senior economic reporter steve liesman is in charge. he knows all the economists. he knows what they have to say. steve, do those words belong in the same sentence? >> now they do. at least more optimistic than they were. a snap survey by cnbc we found economists are more optimistic about the second half of the year after that better than expected report on gdp for the second quarter. making some more upbeat on the jobs front. we talked to eight economists over the weekend. found they upped their third quarter forecast by a percentage

point. 0.9% to 2.65%. about a quarter point to 2.51% in the fourth quarter. here's what's important. they both hit the 2 1/2% rate. they could start the beginning of bringing down the unemployment rate. these numbers follow, by the way, 6.4% decline in the first quarter and a better than expected 1% fall in the second quarter. economists cite government stimulus, less inventory clearing. slight increase in home building and rebound in auto production as broet drivers. for the second half of the year, growth on average, versus is a key de cline in the first half. that is a pretty large swing. he says we could have a higher 4.6% growth in this quarter but downgraded in the fourth saying we are borrowing some growth. administration officials on the weekend talk show, they caution we're still on the slow road to job growth.

>> you'll never get employment without gains and output. but even as output increases it's going to take time before the number of jobs starts to grow. so we can't be satisfied with where we are and the economy is not going to be back to normal for quite some time. >> here are the numbers economists are looking for for friday. big improvement but still a big negative number. minus 275,000 on nonpharma faye roles. we just barely eke out a gain. we talked to them and say i it's possible to cap the unemployment rate. still expect to steak considerable time to bring the rate down which would mean no fast changes.. policy. one more thing, guys, look here at the ism 45.6 unemployment manufacturing, that tends to be consistent with positive numbers on payrolls.

if not that end, coming months. >> all right, thank you. don't go away. we want you to do more work. joining us now here at the big board, richard, director of economic research with or gargu research. and scott with t-3 live.com. and in minneapolis, john fisher, portfolio manager with fifth third asset management. ly start with john fisher. you think the trend is up for the rest of the year, right? >> yes. >> why? >> i just think sentiment, optimism in general from investors on comparing everything to the fourth quarter of last year to the first half of this year. and then extrapolating that, the theme that things aren't as bad as they have been or things are getting better sequentially. investors want to extrapolate that optimism and that outlook into continued improvement into 2010. and that's going to continue to

drive the market higher. fortunately, i think it sets everyone up for a disappointment in 2010 when the real numbers for 2010 start coming in. >> oh.h. what a way to bum us all out. all right. fine. we'll go up the rest of the year and get crushed in 2010. scott do, you look out that far. >> i don't look that far but i do agree with the up trend. but you still have to enter and exit the right way. the markets are not getting them extended. everyone is getting excited about the within,000 mark on the s&ps. there's a huge level at around 1010 to 1030. even if you want to be involved in this market you have to see how the market handles this zone and we are sellers of that zone, we're not buyers of that zone. >> how much growth are we dealing? cash for clunkers is a good example. it's an unmitigated success. ford to be the first company of all companies to have a year on year increase in anything. okay. but how much are we stealing or is that a fear that's not justified? >> it's stealing from the fourth

quarter. i'm not an optimist. i'm not a pessimist, i'm a realist. a realist is you have at least 10% of the workforce out of work. there are no catalysts, okay, to force the economy to grow. no stimulus in the pipeline to come around. i don't see any reason why anyone would go out, small business especially who just keeps getting clobbered pep every week there's another headline that says we're going to take out small business .i don't see any reason for anyone to gout and hire. slashes are being announced every quarterly earnings. >> steve liesman. >> yeah. >> i disagree with brother yamarone here and i'm going to bounce it off of you. with regard to the cash for clunkers program, my theory is, that brought in a bunch of people who would not otherwise have been in the market. i don't think we're stealing from the future. >> i agree.

let me answer two parts here. first is what alan greenspan said yesterday was interesting. this program six months ago would not have worked because people were not in the mood to buy. on the other hand, it's incumbent on richard to tell us what the right level of car sales are on an annual basis. 9.7 million is not the right level.l. so even if you are stealing some, there were still way undershooting what is probably the normal level of annual car sales. maybe he brought some but we're so far under we're probably where it should be that it's hard to imagine we're stealing too much. >> what do you think? >> i just can't imagine that someone gives a coupon out for $4500 on a $35,000 car, now everybody who -- especially the large unemployed workforce is going to go head out and buy a car. >> instead of car rational, richard. carmakers have known that forever. that's why they give you cash back or low interest because they're looking for the button to push on the consumer.

it's not rational. >> i agree what you're saying. that is. it's the biggest gimmick since a 0% finance, right? get them in the door. >> we hear the car dealers say the fico stores are solid. but are we potentially now pushing cars out to people who cannot afford them down the line? probably making house payments now. >> i don't think that's the situation. i mean, one, you know, the unemployment rate was -- has been 9% since the spring. so you're not adding a lot of incremental new unemployed people to the workforce. year see that number drift around 9 1/2%, 10%. there's not a lot of new unemployed there. what you're looking at is auto production is going to be greater than a year ago, greater than the first half. that momentum and that sentiment on increased auto prukz is going to continue to build into a target level at 2010 that is going to be at the end unreal t

ist tick.. we'll probably start to see forecast of 11 1/2, 13 million auto builds for next year and that's going to be unrealistic with what we end up with in 2010. >> thank you very much. thank you both. stick around, we've got a lot more to cocome on "squawk on the street." it's a big day for the markets. big day for data. you do not want to wander off today. >> you don't. we're going to get the k street washington angle. is the stimulus working or not? when my wife started forgetting things...

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we really love this place. talk to your doctor about alzheimer's treatments... including aricept. don't wait. alzheimer's isn't waiting. economy is going to pull out of the tailspin in the second quarter. friday's gdp numbers better than expected. the key question now is whether the obama administration fiscal stimulus is responsible for that. joining us with what's being heard on k street, jon hilsenrath. jon hilsenrath, i'm going to be honest. you came out and said, no matter what, i'm not going to say we're

out of this recession until we're not losing jobs. >> yeah, right. he's pointing to the job market. a lot of other people are saying that the fiscal stimulus has been what's taken us out of the tailsp tailspin. i would take exception with that. if you look at the gdp report really carefully, it's very hard to find signs of fiscal stimulus in those numbers. government spending was up but it was mostly defense spending. state and local added half of a percentage point. consumers got some tax breaks but they pocketed most of it. their saving is up. so at some point the fiscal stimulus is going to kick in. that could help growth resume. but it's not what pulled us out of the tailspin. i would say what pulled us out of the tailspin is the unpopular stuff that the government did. bailing out all of the wall street firms and the fed pumping a lot of money into this system. the stuff that nobody likes is probably what got us out of this. >> and what do you think, john harwood? is the administration, well, i mean, maybe they're not sure whether we're fully in a

recovery so they're hesitant to fully put improvement on the stimulus plan? what politically accounts for why more not grabbing this and running with it? >> erin, i think the administration feels a little burned by those declarations of green shoots a while ago that were then followed by continuing bad news on the gobless front. if there's one thing that president obama and every president learned from george w. bush is it's not to declare mission accomplished too early. i think the president realizes that many people associate the health of the economy with indicators like the unemployment rate which is still rising. so he's not going to come out and say, oh, all of you people out there seeing your communities -- your neighbors without jobs, things are getting better. trust me, he's going to try to be very cautious about that. and as to jon's point earlier, it's very hard to know what's contributed and hasn't contributed. larry summers, you saw him on "meet the press" yesterday, said we set certain tar ggets for

saving or creating jobs. how do you know when a job is saved? the bottom line is everybody's happy that we seem to be getting out of this thing but they're not going to be doing dances. >> i think there's two things going on. on the one hand they have to defend the fiscal stimulus.. you hear people in the administration saying, yes, this has helped to create a bottom on the economy. on the other hand, they realize that people don't look at gdp numbers, they look at their job prospects and measure their own personal situation. that's why they can't beat the drum too loudly when we have an unemployment rate at 9 1/2%. they're defendsing the merit to the stimulus. >> in fairness to the administration, mark zandy believe it has been successful to some degree. he makes the argument that it has, in fact, helped. >> what about, just throwing this out there, as we talk about cash for clunkers and that it's taking money away from the

energy, right, from a lot of alternative energy programs. i'm sure you saw it in the "washington post" talking about how we have lost the leadership in alternative leadership to china and definitively so. is that going to get any talk this week? particularly ge support of tax. >> well, look, jeff immelt is a gig ally of the administration on this issue. it's one that is very politically difficult. the prospects in the senate are quite uncertain, but the more sort of heavyweights you have with large corporations and the energy business, jim rogers of duke energy is another ally, then the greater chance they have of success.s. as for taking money out of alternative energy, at this point the politicians don't give a darn about where they're taking the money from. they're going to keep this cash for clunkers program going because they see this tremendous enthusiastic reaction.

>> didn't john mccain threaten he might hold it up, jon hilsenrath? >> this is becoming another -- >> lots of luck. >> -- republicans think they might get some political mileage out of it. i kind of doubt it. people are running out and enjoying the $4500 payments, i think it's not really much of a winner on the republican side. but you are seeing some buzz today, you know, talking about how these are just give-aways and -- but i don't think that's a winning argument. on the cap and trade, we're still a few weeks from the senate taking it up you but they could take it up as early as september. that issue is going to come back into focus a few weeks from now. you know, you've got people like immelt who are support cap and trade, but ironically you have other companies like exxon saying we might as well just tax this stuff because cap and trade is too unwieldy. >> thanks so much. jon hilsenrath and john harwood. coming up, the original

sponsor for can cash for clunkers is here. she's going to talk about refuelling the program. you are watching "squawk on the street." we're up to 86, right near the high. we'll be back.

we have headlines from chrysler. we all know chrysler is

considered to be the weakest of the big three. >> yeah. >> okay? so they are going to have a year-on-year decrease of single digits, which would obviously be significantly better than they had. ford is the only one who came out and said they will have an increase in the u.s. the most important headline is perhaps this. chrysler says some plants are operating on overtime. >> wow! >> which we are assuming would be something that you do before you added a shift. >> yeah. >> but it would be a good sign. if there's any more to it, phil lebeau will join us. but that is an interesting headline out of chrysler. perhaps an important one. s&p now -- >> s&p right now is over 1,000. >> 1001, mark. >> 1029 and the nasdaq is at 2,000. >> there you go. >> all right. let's look at the internals here on this very nice day for the markets. they should be pretty good. and they are. that's a little better than 4-1

positive on the big board. on the nasdaq, that's a little less than 2-1. you don't usually get strong advance decline on the nasdaq. >> cash for clunkers program is still the topic of conversation. it launched at the beginning of july for preorders. and then it -- well, needed more money. the house passed a couple more billion dollars bringing the total to $3 billion. and the senate now, well, it's up to you. department of transportation said, unless senate approves more money this week. this weekend on c-span secretary ray lahood said that. >> if the senate does not pass the additional $2 billion the program will be suspended. >> ray lahood will be our guest on "street signs" at 2:00 this afternoon to talk about where we stand.d. congresswoman sutton joins us now to talk about the state of the program. congressman sutton, so $1

billion, originally had, 250,000 cars. get up to the 4 million, that's a million cars.. are you confident that we really need a million more cars, that's all real demand, we're not stealing from the future, all these concerns? >> the good news coming out of the program so far certainly tells us we should keep the success rolling. when i introduced the program i did ask for $4 billion and there were some who wanted to see it prove itself successful first. and so we've done that. and now it's time to add fuel to the program and hopefully keep the market rolling. >> first of all, congresswoman, i want to congratulate you for coming up with a stimulus program that actually directly benefits the little guy. >> thank you. >> you're the first one who actually directly benefits the little guy. and we appreciate that. >> well, thank you.

>> personally, i think you've done the automobile industry a service, too. i don't think you're stealing from the future or anything like that.. as a veteran owner of clunkers all my life, i've always had at least one clunker in the garage. we clunker owners tend to hold on until the car dies.. i think you've created a whole new class of buyers. why are your colleagues not rushing, especially your colleagues in the senate, not rushing to extend this? >> well, it's certainly my hope that when they give it afterle thought, that they will. over 300 people in the house voted very quickly to keep the success going. and hopefully the senate, when they look at the numbers, they look at the benefits, consumers getting the direct benefit that you identified, suring up the jobs from the auto manufacturer down through the parts makers to

the dealers and then looking at those environmental benefits that the program is giving us, it's my hope that the senate will not hesitate, but will keep this going. >> can we extend the philosophy behind your program to perhaps other aspects of the economy?y? that question just occurs to me. i don't know what it might be. >> coupons for washing machines. >> something like that, yeah. >> why not. china did it. >> can we do that? >> i think that all of that is worth thinking about. you know, when this was offered up, it was an innovative idea so accomplish multiple goals.s. it just goes to show you we can accomplish multiple goals.s. we can get a lot of bang for it, the investment, and hopefully we'll be smart with our policies out there that can successfully stimulate the economy while helping consumers and accomplish other things. >> congresswoman sutton, one concern that i've heard out there though is that the money for this program is coming from money that was to go to alternative energy development

in this country. these are for fuel-efficient cars. there is a link. but it's not going to push forward to technologies. we keep hearing now repeatedly that the united states lags china dramatically and perhaps irrepairably in wind and solar and every sort of alternative technology. is that something that you're worried about?t? >> i'm conscious of that argument. the good news about this program is that the fuel efficiency in the vehicles being purchased is about 69% of improvement. consumers are going to be saving on the average of $800 a year on fuel savings.. this does have a link, as you point out. but in terms of the money and where it's coming from to extend the program, the reality of it is that that money was not going to be able to be used this year. so it's not an immediate problem. and i personally am a big believer in our need to invest in this development of alternative energy.. so i don't think that stopping

this program or pitting this program against that future success is a good idea. we need to do both. keep this going and invest in alternative energy. >> all right. congresswoman sutton, thank you very much. let's get to phil lebeau with more on those chrysler headlines. phil, some really -- it looks to me like unqualified good news. >> yeah, and i think we're going to hear this not only from chrysler. we'll hear from ford later and good news from general motors as well. all automakers will report news that is making people think, wow, this program is really having an affect. chrysler is now having some factories work on overtime. we're now in an inventory situation, not just for chrysler but for gm and ford as well where they're going to face a situation where look around the lot back here. so many vehicles have gone off the lot that the factories are going to have to either go into overtime mode or look about

building a second shift. brings up the question of whether or not this is sustained demand out in the market. that's going to be the real question once cash for clunkers ends, whether it this week or more likely in the next couple of months. >> thanks very much, phil lebeau. coming up, our auto task force takes up congresswoman sutton's comments, those chrysler headlines, and more. rock 'n roll hall of fame celebrating the 25th anniversary. the ceo joins us more on how in the face of this recession, the concert industry is having a record year. welcome to the now network. population: 49 million. right now 1.2 million people are on sprint mobile broadband. 31 are streaming a sales conference from the road. eight are wearing bathrobes. two... less. - 154 people are tracking shipments on a train. - ( train whistles ) 33 are im'ing on a ferry. and 1300 are secretly checking email... - on a vacation. - hmm? ( groans )

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the market, oh, we are so, so close, mark. we were just briefly at 1001.

>> we got there. >> the nasdaq was at 2,000. >> and we'll get back. although the pessimists say this is it, you know. >> takes two to trade. >> yeah. all right. >> despite the recession, the music industry is having a record year. top 100 con certain tours have grossed $1.6 billion the first half of this year which is up 10% from the same time last year. this comes in the same year that the rock 'n roll hall of fame is celebrating 25th anniversary with two special shows here in manhattan. will the boost in sales keep the industry afloat and, well, is it going to keep going? joining us to discuss is ceo of the rock 'n roll hall of fame. you've got two big concerts. those look likes pretty good people, simeon and springsteen. >> we're looking to find the key artists that we look at to celebrate what the history of rock 'n roll is all about.t. we're looking over a period of two days to find the right actos

craft and tell a story of what rock 'n roll is all about. >> how come sales are up? when we look at the concerts, were they discounted to get people in the door and resulted in a net increase overall? >> i think people like to see live music. people have always liked to go out. people like to buy tickets in good times and bad. people look to go to see concerts. >> you can't download a concert. >> you can't download a concert. we were looking to do something to celebrate the 25th anniversary to find something that supports the museum in cleveland, which is a beautiful 150,000 square foot museum in cleveland, as well as our annex that we recently opened in new york. it was, what are we going to do? we have a book coming out on harper collins that celebrates 25 years. we did a deal with time life to have an induction ceremony. we figured the best way is a live event. we worked with our partners, tom hanks, to coproduce this event, to really find the way to tell the story with the biggest names in rock 'n roll about what

rock 'n roll means to people. >> the economics of the business has changed to a point, correct me if i'm wrong, that most of the money now comes from either concerts or merchandise. is that correct? >> correct. it seems that more and more bands are finding that with the well documented issues going on with record sales, that the way that they can make money is out on tour.. and -- >> so you actually release a record or even allow it to be downloaded to generate interest in your concert. it used to be, of course, exactly the opposite. >> complete shift. used to be you put out a record and went on tour to support the record. now you're going -- putting a record out to support the tour. like you mentioned before, erin, companies like live nation are being smart with their ticket pricing. they have a lot of output and a lot of different acts to be there. that's what we were looking for when we were doing the 20th anniversary. >> is that model sustainable? >> absolutely. i think people want to see live entertainment. with this event that we're doing

which is geared to raise a permanent endowment for the rock and roll hall of fame, we're not worried about ticket sales, we're worried about having a museum that really talks about and do educational programs to talk about the history of rock 'n roll of all ages. >> michael jackson, you call him pop or whatever, what is the impact? >> rock 'n roll is a lot of things to different people. rock 'n roll is michael jackson to some people, otis redding to other people, eric clapton. >> interest in what you -- it. >> did. annex in new york, we did more business, in clove land we had a huge event on the plaza that had thousands of people coming. it improved our attendance. we want to drive business to our museums and to the annex in new york. >> mark, if you want to go you have to have an american express card. >> now you can buy tickets through the public and once in a lifetime v.i.p. package, go to our website, rockhall25.com.

it has benefits and after parties. >> how much is that going to set us back? >> you personally? >> how much does it cost? >> tickets goes from $75 to the packages go up to $25 to $100,000. >> okay, on the horn to check in, maybe he'll bayou one. >> you could bring the whole crew here. >> $100,000 sounds reasonable. >> reasonable. reasonable crazy. >> thank you. >> my pleasure to be here. all right. up next, the state of the cash for clunkers program from a dealers perspective. >> but first, oh, trish.. >> hey, good morning, guys. happy monday. coming up at the top of the hour we have a packed show.. first of all, ford is going to be releasing its sales numbers an hour ahead of time. and so we are going to have those for you right at the top of the show. plus, we're going to be talking live with ford's chief analyst of sales. we've got phil lebeau on deck. it's a packed top of the show for you. plus, first on cnbc interview

we're going to talk live to the ce okay of humana. will president obama raise taxes on the middle class? it's something that tim geithner, larry summers are not ruling out. is this the way to go? plus, i'll be talking live p with an nyse trader about just exactly what this summer rally here up 101 is all about. it's all coming up at the top of the hour. but first, mark and erin with r are back.

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we're back, as we've been telling you, some in the senate are threatening to put the brakes on the cash for clunkers program after the house rushed to pass an additional $2 billion in funding. here to give us a dealer's perspective, auto dealer and president of boston based village automotive group. he owns nine car dealerships in the greater boston area. thank you very much for being with us. i understand you've put together about 100 deals last week out of cash for clunkers?s? >> right. and that was only in a week. so it's been very, very successful program. >> let me ask you this. i realize you guys are in survival mode. and you worry about the details later. do you get the feeling that you

are -- that the program is simply moving forward, business you would have gotten later, or is it bringing in people who wouldn't have come in? >> well, i believe it's bringing in people that wouldn't have ordinarily come in. their trade-ins aren't worth very much. these are people who would ordinarily be in the new car market. >> all right. thank you for affirming what i think, as well. as a veteran clunker owner, i know you hold on to them until you suffer a major failure like transmission or engine, otherwise you just keep putting like $500 in keeping it on the road. >> exactly. >> how, i realize you only own, well, nine dealership it is a lot of dealerships, but in your experience, are people buying primarily detroit or primarily non-detroit? >> i think it's a mixture of both. the new car they're buying has to get a considerable better gas mileage. so they're out there looking at all makes and models that get

good gas mileage. >> all right. a good mix then not predominantly one or the other? >> right. exactly. >> all right. what have you been doing? and your fellow dealers been doing to get through to members of the senate? i mean the house is on board, but for some reason, the senators aren't getting it. >> well, our association has been margining all of our resources trying to get the message out to them. it isn't as if we're looking to appropriate new money. the money has already been appropriated. we're just trying to direct it toward the cash for clunkers. >> what's the -- what's the limit here? how long do you think this program could be effective? >> well, when one considers that the obama administration is trying to stimulate the economy, this is a proven method to do it. so we could see selling as many as 1 million automobiles,which is a win-win for everybody. the consumer wins, the

government wins, the environmental people get what they want. so this is quite a program that is going to be a win-win for everybody. >> well, thanks for your time. >> appreciate it. nice talking to you. >> major auto dealer in the greater boston area. >> let's get reaction to what ray had to say and talk about the cash for clunkers program and this big question of whether it's a short-term sugar high or something that will over the longer term help our economy grow. joining us jim hall auto consultant, and our automotive reporter phil lebeau. phil, first question to you, i know you probably just heard ray say he thought we could do 1 million cars, which, of course, corresponds to the 4 billion number under consideration at the senate. >> right. >> i know we've been debating how many of these are new people and how many of them are people who were maybe stealing from the future. do you think there are 1 million car buyers who wouldn't have bought a car without this? that this is really extra demand? >> i think that's a little bit

too optimistic based on what i'm hearing from people in the industry, erin. i think what we're seeing are a lot of people who had suvs last year when the market bottomed out who said, listen, i no longer can make a deal work if i just go try to trade in the residual value has tanked on the suv. as a result, these people now have $4,500 on the federal government, they can make the monthly numbers work. and that's what we're seeing here. are there 1 million of those people out there? i'm not so sure. remember, this 250,000 vehicles sold, a lot of that was packed into the pipeline two or three weeks in advance. dealers had these deals written up, ready to go so that once cash for clunkers money was allocated, it was all set. keep that in mind as we look at the future of this program. >> jim, what about how, and i know both of you on this, but jim, first, how is breaking down. mark tried to get the dealer there to say what kinds of cars are going out. we know there's a benefit across the board, but just when you

look at the fuel efficient cars for the japanese automakers, for example, as opposed to the u.s., it would appear the clunkers in are american and the cars out would be predominantly foreign. is that true? >> it seems, but what you've got is a 10 miles per gallon difference. large full size pickup trucks are being traded, because they provide the 10 mile per gallon differentially. so what you're seeing was like a dog bone where the things that seem to be moving are vehicles where the delta is large off low-fuel economies. light pickups and large suvs and also highly fuel-efficient small and mid-sized cars. >> what are you hearing on that? >> as far as the vehicles? >> yeah. >> it's a mixed bag because the large trucks are predominantly domestic vehicles, and the fuel-efficient vehicles many of them are, in fact, from overseas people. and it's actually been a big shot in the arm for smart, who is not doing that well, actually. >> for smart car.

>> yeah.. >> those are the ones going out. final word for you phil lebeau, what do you hear about what's going off the lot. we have an audio issue with phil. thanks very much, we appreciate it, phil also out in the ether, we'll hear back from him because i know in a few minutes we'll have the chief sales officer for ford who will thought that year-on-year increase. up next, the final check -- wow, boy this two-hour show goes fast. we're having so much fun. we'll be right back. finally, good news for people with type 2 diabetes or at risk for diabetes.

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all right. market's doing really good. up 80 points on the dow. stick around, going to be a good day. "street signs," transportation secretary. >> ray lahood, and we're going to talk about this whole issue of what cars are going off the lots. u.s. overseas. >> i will see you tomorrow morning at 9:00. thanks for watching. >> everyone, have a good day. the ism manufacturing index rose to 84.9, up more than four points from june. chrysler says it will report a double digit month or month sales increase for july over june, a single digit increase year-over-year. the auto sector with the s&p 500 breaking 1,000 for the first time since november.

that's cnbc.com news now. we're first in business worldwide. i'm courtney reagan. all right. welcome to the call, i'm melissa francis, and trish regan at the new york stock exchange on a strong market day so far. ford now releasing auto sales figures for july. they're expected to be very strong, we're waiting for those numbers any second now. phil, what do we think we're going to see here? >> we're going to see the first monthly sales increase in two years by ford. melissa, these numbers from ford are strong, largely because the retail numbers are positive. interestingly enough, ford's fleet sales, the ones that go out to the rental car companies, corporations, those are going to be negative year-over-year, but because of so much demand with cash for clunkers, we're going to see positive numbers. >> phil, i've got to interrupt you for a second. we are getting that number. it's up 2.3%. that is the number for july for

ford sales up 2.3%. what's your reaction to that? >> reporter: that's about what we would expect. keep in mind these guys were down what? 24% three months ago? to make that much progress in three months, that's astounding. so this increase here, people are going to look at it and say, wow, up 2%? think about where these guys are coming from, and remember, this is the first of the big six automakers to report a monthly increase in seven months. so there's nothing but positives in these numbers. >> what was june like? and how much of this do we think comes from cash for clunkers? the program started at the end of the month. was it counted in that? >> reporter: no, cash for clunkers didn't officially start until about eight days ago, nine days ago. george pipas, in charge of sales for ford, he joins us live from ford headquarters in dearborn, michigan. you heard the question from melissa. when you look at your monthly sales increase going up a couple of percent points, how much of that do you atut