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hi, everybody. welcome to "the wall street journal report." i'm maria bartiromo. it's all about jobs. the key employment report just out. what it means, what it tells us about the economy and what is next. she is one of the most powerful women in business in the world. we'll talk with pepsi's indra nooyi to find out where the fizz is in her biz. and he wrote "the pursuit of happyness." how chris gardner's amazing story continues with advice on how to use your passion to find success. the "wall street journal report" begins right now. >> this is america's number one financial news program. "the wall street journal report." now, maria bartiromo. now here's bob pisani with a look at some of the stories in the headlines this week. >> here's a look at what's making news as we enter a new week on wall street.

for the first time since april of 2008, the unemployment rate actually fell. the jobs report for july was released on friday and it showed the economy lost 247,000 jobs, better than what many economists had expected. the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4%. the better than expected report is a strong signal the recession is ending. the market started august off on a bang. on monday, the s&p 500 closed over 1000 for the first time since november, the nasdaq over 2000 for the first time since october. the markets were flat midweek and rose on friday. with a helping hand from the cash for clunkers program vehicle sales in july got a boost. ford up 2%, the first year over year increase since last august. gm, chrysler and toyota were down. earnings season is winding down, but several dow components reported this week. kraft, cisco abeat analysts

estimates. the u.s. postal service expects to lose more than $7 billion by the end of the fiscal year. that will likely mean some local post office closures and shorter hours. the big story is the jobs number and the markets hitting yearly highs. what does it mean for the markets and your portfolio? joining us is joe lavorna, managing director and chief u.s. economist at deutsche bank. tom forrester is the manager of the forrester value fund. let me start with you. the jobs number showed clear improvement but it was still negative. what's your take on the numbers and when will we see positive jobs growth. >> the numbers were still lousy, down almost 250,000. where there was glimmers of hope was largely in the factory work week. it rose 0.3%. that suggests inventory building. we also saw temporary hiring, while still negative, that decline is starting to slow. if we're lucky, maybe we can get a positive payroll report before the year is over. >> we have seen a real improvement in the stock market. the major indices up 50% from their march lows.

most of these earnings improvements we have been seeing is coming due to cost cutting. when are we going to see some improvements on the top line? when are companies going to actually start reporting sales improvements? >> you hit the question right on the head there. we don't expect to see real improvements in revenue growth probably until next year. that's our whole thesis right now is we like the people are beating their numbers. that's great to see. until we start seeing revenue improvement, we think a lot of this is baked into the market right now. >> when do you think that will actually happen? i mean, you can't keep putting out the recovery by saying, well, someday we'll get revenue improvement. we can't push it out to 2012. stocks can't go out that far. are we going to actually see this happen this year, or is it really a 2010, 2011 story? >> i think this happens -- i've been saying this a year. i think this happens in fits and starts. we're seeing some of the one of

the utah starts now. expect this to be bumpy. more of a "w" sort of recovery. i think it's a 2010 before you start seeing sustainable revenue increases with companies. so i'm happy the market's up. this is kind of what we expected for the year. i'm not sure that we go up a lot more from here. >> joe, let me do the same with you but just on the economy. we've had four quarters of negative growth in the gdp. we haven't had that in i don't know when. when are we going to start getting positive growth in the economy, and what magnitude is it going to be? >> bob, i think even related to your gdp point, nominal gdp, you can think of as sort of top-down revenues, down three quarters in a row. that's never happened before. our guess is we're going to get positive, in nominal this year, q3, real gdp up 2%, nominal, maybe up 3, 3.5. i think that will go a long way to giving real corporate profitability to some of these beleaguered companies with a lot of operating leverage. i this profits could come back a lot quicker.

i think we could see the pre-lehman highs on the s&p at 1275 a lot quicker than people believe. i think the consensus view is it is "w," it's going to be a slow grind. when that happens in the past, you got to look for ways to be a contrarian. >> what does that mean, 2% gdp growth? is that enough to get job growth, for example, which is what most of us really care about here? >> right. no, unfortunately, bob, not yet. 2%, i think we build upon that. we're 2.5% next quarter. we're growing 3% next year. that's, bob, when i think you'll really start to see a more noticeable improvement in the labor market with actually jobs turning positive. >> tom, you're a value guy. your fund last year in 2008 actually was up in the year when the markets had a terrible year. very briefly, how did you do that? and what are you doing this year? what sectors are you invested in this year and how are you doing so far? >> we saw the housing price bust, if you will. we took cover from that. back in march, we started

getting very optimistic and we were expecting kind of a 50% rally. that's really what we've seen. we've gotten a little bit more offensive in our stock picks. we've added to the technology sector. and so we're more comfortable being, you know, in the market. we like that. we still think, though, that the banks still have a ways to work out of their foreclosure issues. most of the write-offs you're seeing today are for things that went default nine months to a year ago. we're still way behind the curve as far as that goes. you still have problems in the commercial mortgage sector. >> what are the people at deutsche bank, your colleagues at deutsche bank, advising their clients to be in right now? >> i think you want to take a more aggressive posture. the foreclosure story, i hear that's very powerful. i would argue that by the time the foreclosures, delinquencies and charge-offs peak, the economy will have entered into a new phase. i think you want to be more aggressively positioned for a recovery. i don't believe clients are positioned for it. you want to take some risk. i think equities probably, especially big cap stocks in the

u.s., are probably best poised to get operating leverage and grow. i think you want to take some cash off the sidelines. >> i only have a few seconds left, but let me ask both of you. will there be a dip down in september and october because a number of bears are saying we will drop down again. will the markets end higher at the end of the year than they are now, higher or lower? tom, you go first. >> i think you'll see a dip in the september, october time frame. i think we finish about here. maybe a little higher. so -- that would be kind of a normal seasonal pattern. >> i think that makes a lot of sense. i'll go a little more optimistic. i think we end close to 1200. >> joe, tom, always a pleasure to talk to both of you. thanks for being with us. back to you, maria. up next on "the wall street journal report" -- the health of the international economy as told through snack foods. one of corporate america's most powerful women, pepsico's ceo indra nooyi joins me from her

company's new plant in china. lessons for life and business from a man knows. how you can pursue happiness even if will smith doesn't star in your life story.

increasingly, china is a key to the global economy recovering as it shifts from an export economy to a consumer-led economy. pepsi co, maker of soft drinks and potato chips and gatorade is trying to get a piece of those consumers as the country shifts back into high gear. recently i spoke with pepsi co's ceo indra nooyi on her company's growth abroad. >> china say country where the opportunities are huge but china also has a lot of issues and it's critically important that companies that come into china work with the chinese government to make sure they are making a positive impact on society.

and you can see the excite. whether it's beijing or shanghai. you see the excitement in every part of china. so i'm very, very optimistic about the prospects of china. and let me add, maria, china has declared that the gdp growth rate is about 6.5% or 6.8%. the way i look at it is the differential gdp growth rate between china and the western world is about nine points because the western world's declining about 2 to 3 points. so to have an economy with over a billion people industrializing, growing gdp at a 9-point differential over the western world is a very, very exciting market. >> are you seeing a movement of people moving from the suburbs to the cities and really adding to that vibrancy that you're talking about? >> i mean, i wouldn't quite call it suburbs -- cities or the suburbs. it's more the interior part of china, not just the coastal part. the interior part of china is also developing extremely rapidly.

i was looking at a study which showed a little rural village in a province and some people have been tracking this development over the past three or four years. in three or four years, that little town, the rural town, has developed so well it went from a small store, a hole in the wall store, to three years later, there's a modern convenience store. people in that little town five years ago didn't have too many cell phones or laptops. now people have cell phones, laptops. in a period of three to five years. so what you're seeing is the development of regions outside the big cities of beijing and shanghai. the growth in the interior. and all of them are cities with over 1 million, 2 million people. cities like chong ching have 16 million, 17 million people. these cities are developing extremely rapidly, modernizing. the people in china in these cities are aspirational. they want to own products that are viewed as aspirational.

foreign brands being part of that. they want to do everything in their own unique way. so they present an enormous opportunity for all of us. and i think china as a whole is an incredible canvas on which all of us can write a story, working with the chinese government and the chinese people. >> you know, indra, we've been talking a lot about protectionist issues. certainly in the united states, the whole idea of just buy american. then china comes out and does the same thing. buy chinese. are you feeling that in any way, being an american company, this protectionist issue that so many of us talk about, given the global slowdown? >> the investment climate in china is very good. we've submitted an application to build ten more plants. and the chinese government has worked with us very constructively and has looked upon our investment very, very favorably. at the same time, we've had several meetings with government officials here in beijing, and there's tremendous concern here that protectionist tendencies will sort of take root in many markets which are facing a

slowdown. you know well that it takes about a year to put in trade barriers, but it takes seven to ten years to knock them down. the world has come a long way because we've really pushed for globalization. we've pushed for global trade. it would be very sad if we went back. now, i'm not arguing that we export jobs. that's not what i'm arguing for. what i'm suggesting is that we find creative ways to keep job creation in each of the key countries which require the jobs, but we don't set up barriers for global trade. global trade modernizes the world. global trade brings people out of poverty and it's critically important that we don't go back on that. >> let me ask you about the global economy and the impact on your business. you've got so many of us talking about, well, maybe we have passed the point of collapse, but we're still sort of bumping along the bottom. what kind of impact have you seen in the snack business, in the soda business, as a result

of this slowdown? >> well, let me walk you around the world. you talked about the global economy. east of the middle east where 72% of the world's population sits, the markets are still vibrant. there's still growth. the gdps are growing in almost all of those markets except japan which is still about flat. but 72% of the world's population, the markets are still growing. in latin america, mexico and south, the markets are still vibrant. so you've got a large portion of the world where the markets are still growing. and with the growth of those markets, our business is doing exceedingly well. so, you know, south america, east of the middle east, i feel very, very bullish about. let's now talk about western europe, eastern europe, and north america, which is the block that's facing the most amount of slowdown. i think those are the economies we have to watch very carefully to see what's going to trigger gdp growth to come back to positive territory. in spite of gdp growth being

negative right now, people still have to eat and drink. more importantly, people are cutting back, eating out in restaurants, eating at home more. so that's helping our businesses. so overall, i think the growth rates are still fairly all right. the pattern of growth varies by country, but the growth rates are still there. and our businesses are doing well on a global basis. >> my thanks to indra nooyi. up next on "the wall street journal report," "the pursuit of happyness" taken one step further. advice from a man who went from being homeless to making millions. >> oh, man, i got two questions for you. what do you do and how do you do it? >> i'm a stockbroker. >> stockbroker, oh.

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chris gardner's incredible life story of his journey from homeless shelters to wall street was made into the will smith film "the pursuit of happyness." in his new book "start where you are," he offers advice not on pursuing a rags to riches path but hot to use passion and resourcefulness to find success. always nice to have you on the program. thanks for coming back. >> thank you. >> you got such a tremendous response from your life story in "the pursuit of happyness." first the book, then the movie. is this new book a guide for others to pursue happiness? what's the focus? >> it can be. it can be. the original book now has been published now in 16 languages. so, i mean, who knew? >> amazing.

>> we've heard from people all over the world initially asking questions like, what made you think you could? why'd you keep going? but about two years ago, the questions started changing to, what would you be doing now? and i started making some notes. and i've got to tell you, parts of the book read like today's headlines. >> tell me when you look back at your own life experiences, what has driven you? what has led you to this success? >> passion. passion. from the very beginning, i made a decision. two things. number one, "the pursuit of happyness," the book and movie, was never about rags to riches. that was about a man who was committed to giving his son something that he never had, which was a father. that's priceless. number two, i made a decision as a young guy, i wanted to become world class at something. but i just had to find the venue. and the first time i walked into a wall street trading room, i knew. this is it. >> you knew that was your

calling. >> absolutely. >> you're the ceo of a boutique investment firm and a veteran stock picker. what do you think about the markets here and about the health of the economy? how do you see things? >> i don't share the enthusiasm of a lot of folks. >> you think it's still pretty tough? >> absolutely. and i do believe, honestly, it's going to be a long time before confidence. the one thing that can't be regulated, you hear folks talk about we need more regulation. i think it's going to be a very long time before confidence is returned to the marketplace. too many people have been decimated. >> you've talked in the past about risk-taking, that it's important to have passion in what you do but also take risks. do you think we're going to see less risk-taking in an environment where people are hoarding their cash, afraid of losing their job, looking at more ownership of business from the government? >> you know what i think? what i hear from a lot of the small business people is not so much less risk-taking, but a lot of guys right now are taking some very, very small steps toward growth.

a lot of smart guys are doing what we're doing right now. we're hiring people. very selectively hiring people that we see can add value to our clients and help us build our business. >> and are you seeing -- i guess right now you've got the pick of the litter because there's so much -- unemployment has been steadily rising. >> you know what? the beautiful thing is, a lot of the guys -- i just signed employment contracts with two guys i'm tremendously excited about. 18 months ago would not have talked to me. they were at some of these great big firms, rolling in dough. but the world has changed. one of the things that -- most important thing i think i can do right now is while everybody else is looking for values in stocks, we're looking for values in people. >> and your own story focuses on resourcefulness over luck. none of your co-workers at dean witter in the early '80s were aware you were sleeping in a public restroom. what's the value of resourcefulness, particularly for today's workers?

>> you know what for me, let me answer it this way. one of the reasons i've had any success that i have had in business was because of that time that i had to spend homeless. now, folks will say, what do you mean by that? when you're homeless, what are you dealing with? a lack of resources. you start a small business, you got to compete with a lack of resources. so i've learned some things in that situation that indeed were transferable into my job every day. >> and you were taking care of your son at the time, and you were carrying around all of your belongings on your back. >> every day. >> how's your son doing now? he was a toddler when you were living on the streets and when we talked about your story the last time. >> major difference between reality in the film and the film. he plays my son as a 5-year-old. they did that for the dialogue. my son was 14 months old. that changes everything. but this guy today has decided he wants to be -- of all the crazy in the businesses in the world, the music business.

>> and you are the proud father. >> oh, god. i'm the one parent on the planet that cannot say you can't do that. i've got to say, if that's what's in your heart and that's what you want to make happen, go make it happen. >> great to have you on the program. >> maria, good to see you. >> thank you so much, chris gardner joining us. up next on "the wall street journal report," we'll take a look at the news this upcoming week that will have an impact on your money. as we take a break, take a look at how the stock market ended the week. taking its rightful place

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for more on our show and the guests go to wsjr.cnbc.com. you'll also find a link to my blog, investor agenda. check it out. take a look at the stories coming up in the week ahead that may move the markets and impact your money this week. a number of retailers will be reporting second quarter earnings including macy's, kohl's, and walmart which is a dow component. wednesday the federal reserve's open market committee announces its interest rate decision after a two-day meeting. and the international trade balance is released. that's a report on the state of american imports and exports. thursday, total retail sales for the month of july will be reported. we'll get re