tune in at 8:30 and look at second quarter productivity. it's going to be strong. if you're looking for a job is that a good thing? tune in and find out. >> tomorrow we're watching for the small business optimism survey. this number has been slowly creeping back along with the economy but we already know the employment component of the index is not going to be good. look for an exclusive interview with the economist who compiles this data at 7:30 tomorrow on "squawk." >> all right. before we go let's give you a quick look at the day on wall street. a little bit of profit taking out there along with weakness in materials bringing down the

major indices, the dow down about a third of a percent on the day 9337 is where we closed out and the nasdaq closing the day below 2000 down about .4%. the s&p 500 down about a third of a%. the yield on the ten year at the highest level in two months and oil dipping slightly on the day only about 20 cents which is probably a good thing since you probably noticed prices at the pump up about ten cents in the last week. mcdonald's having a good day. a new day tomorrow. "fast money" is next. i'll see you on "the call" tomorrow morning at 11:00 a.m. eastern. in the meantime thank you so much for watching. have a great night. it was founded by a group of former google software engineers. a judge says a former goldman worker accused of stealing computer code can access his employee records at the firm and small business bankruptcys soar 81% in june compared to the same

month last year. the cnbc.com news now, and "fast money" with melissa lee starts now. the experts say the recession is over so buy stocks now, right? welcome to "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site. i'm melissa lee. we have this market covered from all angles tonight. moments away rick san telly on what to sell off this week. later a chart signal batting 100% so far. not too bad. first let's get to the word on the street. right now, not too bad in terms of the pause. expected i would think because of the fed meeting which is the big event later this week. >> at 30 basis points down today after up 2.3% last week with a lot of people calling for a lot worse is fine. we'll talk about some pain in the mining sector but across the

board things were evenly spread out. not a bad place to be picking stocks financials did decently today. we got the bkx finishing slightly higher. >> we'll talk about financials and goldman sachs. that's the one that didn't perform today but some did. one of the names i like, raymond james. i think that stock got ahead of itself.. that's a great play but a stock up from 14 to 22.5. we've liked it for a while. i don't love it up here especially if the tape is going to move lower which i think it might. >> the market has a lot ahead of itself. you have the fomc meeting in the next 48 hours, tremendous amount of treasuries being auctioned in the next couple days. what you saw friday was a late day reversal. we tried to recover the losses from late day on friday this morning. couldn't do it. rolled back over. i agree this was kind of a nothing day just preparing for what's ahead. >> the volumes right now are absolutely -- we talk about it on the new york stock exchange but i always come back to the options volume and say not in the options. they have the volume. not today.y. today about half the normal

options activity. as a matter of fact, the full half of the biggest day last week, of 18 million. so you want to look at this market and say to yourself right now not a lot of conviction. a lot of people wanting to pause. 50% gains in just a couple months. it makes some sense. everybody i think is looking for a more dramatic pullback.k. we haven't seen it. tudor jones is out there pounding the table saying don't chase this market. you'll get a shot. i think you'll get a shot. >> i have a trade for you. i don't believe in commercial real estate. i think that is definitely the next shoe. stocks have been doing extremely well over the last couple months have been acuity brand.. get ready to get short. this stock up from 24 now around 32 bucks. big short interest. they've all been getting squeezed. go back to the report a couple weeks ago.o. it was lousy. you have the little double tops, they make lighting fixtures for commercial real estate. this is the stock i think that's short with a very tight stock. >> as we are sitting in this sort of pause ahead of the fed meeting we have a chorus of voices saying the recession is

over. do we even care? >> i think we're in the process of ending here, look, it doesn't end in every part of the economy on a given day. it's a process but just like there was a bottoming process for the equity market i think there is for the economy and when the national bureau of economic research gets around to it sometime probably early next year they will tell us the recession ended maybe as we're speaking. >> all right. so do we care here? the end of the recession a great time to invest.. take a look at our chart of the day. since world war ii the s&p 500's average gain six months after the lows hit during the recession 24%, 32% a year out. but keep in mind the s&p 500 has already rallied 48% from the march lows so have we already missed it? >> this is not your mother's recession or your father's recession, whoever's recession. people talking about this number, so outside to other recession rallies, i think it's a joke. i think this is a totally appropriate rally for what we've had. i'm not telling you we'll do

another 48% but it's easy for politicians to climb onboard too. we got a lot on friday.y. i thought it was a little nauseating, same guys really ready to disavow the economy two months ago and wanted no part of it. they kept saying they had nothing to do with it. they're telling you they fixed it. >> looking back doesn't make you money. looking forward does.. tomorrow the fomc. their biggest concern is going to be commercial real estate. that's what they'll talk about. they'll probably talk about how to support that sector. when you look at going forward the expectations for growth in the second half of 2009 have been elevated higher, 3%. but if you look in 2010, the trend for growth will actually go down. why is that? because now what you're seeing is growth based on inventory, restocking in the absence of consumer participation. there's no consumer participation right now. as you move into 2010 the question becomes, when do consumers spend again? there's no confidence they will do it. this will peter out as you move forward in 2010.

>> a little conservative move today i thought by goldman sachs when they put merk on their conviction buy list and lilly i think is a little in front of themselves and they are also very nervous about the patten issues over lilly. i like what goldman sachs is doing moving into some of the pharmaceutical names. you saw johnson and johnson had a nice day. merk had a great day. people are chasing some of that dividend yield and have been going to some of the utilities but also some of the pharmaceutical area. keep an eye on these names. >> i think we have a chart. if you're looking for a reason to sell and get out of things, take a look at this nasdaq chart back from, well, back from a few years but the middle of 2007 is what you're looking at.. i thank my friends thon one. touch the trend line from the highs in 2007, what we have here is an exact 50% retracement from the 2007 high to recent lows. if anything gives you a reason to sell it's this chart. i would say you can actually get out of your tech names here and if you look in the tech sector

today all the leaders under performed. something to look at. >> all the out performers in this recent leg higher. we have a street fight breaking out over the direction of the dollar. so timmy you're talking on the desk on friday as well, the dollar you think is somewhat of a technical move. >> guys, it's the one trade most people have been in agreement on which is that a weaker dollar through the end of the year is a trade i think we continue to get over the long term. stronger data, actually people are saying the reason the dollar is going to begin to outperform. look at this. if you say commodity dollars inverse relationship, it's flat over the last couple days. i don't know how we could be saying this is purely, you know, the dollar affecting all boats.. i will tell you if you look at europe last week they had great data. an export number in germany tells you shouldn't they also be suffering from the same trade? i mean, the european economy is more or less in line with what

we're doing or where at least we are in this economic cycle. >> the implications of the dollar rallying is what you want to focus on in the commodity space. yes the crv has been flat over the last couple days but a lot of it is the participation of soft commodities, sugar. a lot of commodities investors don't really get to invest in. if you look at the dollar right now what's carrying it higher, it is the unwind of this carry trade, the unwind of the dollar itself being a funded currency. what is the implication if this continues? the implication would be that oil will continue to move lower. you'll see copper continue to move lower. you'll continue to see those resource commodities high plays move lower and the first thing you need to see before we can elevate to the next level in commodities is you need to see a ship from cantango just like you're working off inventories in the economy you have to work off inventories in the commodities space to move higher here. >> to counter that point copper was flat today, aluminum was up. nickel was up.

so i agree, joe, and i have to agree with that trade. i think the commodity, look at the miners, look at freeport. but the underlying commodities are not selling off because in fact there's a trade there. i don't think that trade's over. >> they're not selling off but i'll mention this and i have for a long time, august is historically a month where all the commodities traders go away. you see very odd things happening from around the middle of august up until september, the period we're in now. all the senior traders are away. you can see exacerbated moves in everything including the dollar which though you call it a technical trade, that's fine, but that's something that could really ramp higher on the back of not a lot of people being around. >> stay away from those trades. >> i happen tong think the doll can go higher the rest of the month. don't discount how many people piled into this trade and how many people have to get out. >> the government is getting set to offer $75 billion worth of debt this week. what is the weak demand for the billions in bonds and what does it mean for the stock market?

rick, it seems like the markets you're watching in terms of treasuries and the dollar indicating that perhaps they are positioning themselves for some sort of equity pullback.k. >> you know, i think that seems to be the case and i like what joe was saying about the whole cantango. cash for clunkers did well to lower inventories. maybe we should have cash for gushers to get rid of some of the oil out there. yes i am seeing more international investor types buying in the dollar, not only because as the big move guide pointed out, maybe coming to an end, everybody and their brother leaning toward selling the dollar. if you think we're getting a little long in the tooth in the prozac equity rally it's not a bad way to go. as far as supply i'd like to hear what our table thinks but, you know, the three year, like the two year, we take for granted. maybe we can't do that. i think the $75 billion is going to raise $14 billion in new money. it should go rather well. but every auction has a wild side and it's that small option that everybody has to observe

during every issuance out of the treasury. >> rick, ten-year yield has been rising over the last couple days. today it pulled back a little bit but isn't it artificial? didn't the treasury come in and basically buy $6.5 billion worth of treasury short-term ma turts? >> yes, they did. there is some talk they were instrumental in the seven-year auction we had last go round. the dealers took it down. and, you know, quantitative easing. you could buy any maturity. the answer to your question is, yes. that's why the statement on wednesday may be important. are they going to pull a bank of england on us? are they going to say, hey. we run out of money in september and we need more money for treasuries? we're all assuming that won't be in there but that's what they did for the mpc as well. they assumed it wouldn't be in there and it was. >> rick, how important is 40 basis points or 37 to 40 basis points as a ten-year move last week or off the recent lows? isn't that new hampshire to get the marginal treasury invest og back in the game including a stronger dollar?r? so can't we get a place where treasuries and equities are possibly rallying at the same time? >> i think it's possible.

you brought up a good point. if you look, there was a point today where we were 3.83 in the ten-year and it's now 3.77. we're still roughly in a seven-week high yield low price. there should be plenty of investors especially when everybody's duration, their portfolios have too much short maturityies. i think the 10 and the 30 will go extremely well. you not only have real investors matching duration against liabilities but there is also a much jucier yield above 4.5 on the 30. >> thanks for your time. appreciate it.. rick santelli, the big sir coming to us from chicago.o. specifically this big treasury auction, $75 billion worth of supply is a whole lot. do you go into something like a tbt in anticipation?? >> you know what? the tbt was a great trade.. karen was in it for a long time. it hurt you a lot lately. i hate to do this. longer-term investors with a view, yeah. tbt is interesting especially after the sell off we've seen,

but, you know, this is not for the faint of heart. >> it's going to pull some money off the table for the equities. that's the biggest issue i look at. when i look at all the money going in. i think it's a headache and i think that's why the trade potentially is either looking for some sort of pullback or at least some of this protection because we're talking about stocks that made tremendous moves. why not either have protection or start to speculate that maybe we do get some kind of pullback. that's a lot of money dumped in. >> let's go apple, microsoft, all the big tech names trading down today. >> we talked about it being down a week ago, the smart phone trade. it was discussed apple and rimm are stealing the marketshare there. on rimm we've talked about being long rimm. i got stopped out of rimm today. it is time to move to the sidelines on the rimm trade and, specifically, the reasons are there is concern now what apple

is going to do partnering up with verizon.n. will they launch some form of a verizon apple data type phone and going down the road you may see the iphone in another carrier store. so if you're a long rimm right now it is definitely time to move it out. >> there was a tech trade, a name that made a 52-week high, western digital, new 52-week high. a name we've talked about for a long time. yes it closed lower on the day but it continues to grind higher. needham just put a $39 price target on it. i think we can get there. this is a stock basically going up in lock step each and every day. i still like western digital here. valuations are still fair. >> talking about joe's trade with the smart phones, as i look at google and the android system and china i link these all together and they actually are ahead of apple in china.. they struck a deal with china mobile, unanimous uni com is with apple. that's a better horse. people like lg and samsung are latching onto the android system which is much more open ended

than apple.e. good for google. i like the chart. it's not broken yet and doesn't tell me to run for cover. >> i'm not so sure we're seeing a breakdown in technology, just a light sell off right now. research and motion, yes, is taking it on the chin but that was a u bs downgrade talking about valuations there.e. microsoft and cisco, yeah, they're pulling back a bit to where they were before the earnings. take a look at ibm and hewlett packard.d. they're hanging around pretty solid.d. you still have hewlett's earnings in about a week or so. that could be a potential catalyst. then you get into the second half of the year and there are plenty of catalysts, the new operating system for microsoft is coming out as well.. when you start to get into the smart phone trade, look at china mobile. look at china uni com. these stocks are on fire. china mobile hit a 52-week high the other day. you can see the growth over there. technology is not broken right now. looks like more of a pause. >> you're looking at activity for tipco. >> tipco was unbelievable today. this is a name that comes up all

the time, a software play and everybody is always talking about various issues on who might have interest. forget it right now. look at what happened in the options today. this thing has been averaging 300 contracts a day. they bought over 13,000 in september 10 calls alone today. very active. over 10,000 traded before noon.. very interesting activity out tlchlt the stock has already made a big move but the anticipation is for an even bigger move.e. they started off paying 55 cents and paid up to 75 cents and it's institutional size and just kept moving to the upside. >> let's move on to topping the tape. mcdonald's, up 2% after july sales topped estimates. most of the growth coming from international markets as well as pe pete's favorite. >> on the street corner sipping a cup of jo. >> jim skinner is a ceo there and doesn't get enough credit. he is a fachb tn of the show. mcdonald's does everything right. though the stock doesn't always

show you. yum is actually more expensive on valuation than mcdonald's. yum trades 15 or so times forward earnings, mcdonald's around 13. yum is just a better stock in terms of where it's headed. yeah mcdonald's can push back to 60. it always seems to run resistance. yum is just a better play. >> i think you look to the up side and you look at china and the growth and the yum factor of growing into that area. i love where mcdonald's is going. i think this cafe is just getting started. they had to go back to the basics. the numbers aren't outstanding and won't blow you away but you get a great dividend deal. they're paying two bucks.. you got to like it right now. almost as a utility play in your portfolio. >> the same store sales, strength was really in europe which was the surprise. 7.2%. if you look at the u.s. quick serve business, that business is down and mcdonald's is very resilient right now.

they're using the mint cafe to hang in there and they are exhibiting a resiliency and if you look the market has tried to sell off over the last week, it can't do so, and there were actually some shorts in the market that scrambled for cover today. >> try to find somebody else whose same store sales just keep going up and up and building every single quarter, every single year. the numbers really are impressive. >> the guys they're taking g direct market share, be careful of starbucks. they've firmd up their balance sheets. this is a great chart and isn't played out and i'd be careful to sell this one short against mcdonald's obviously, two slightly different plays. mcdonald's sales right now, mint cafes by the way over 5% of their global sales which is an incredible number for a company this big got to go to the next trade. general motors announcing it will begin selling cars and trucks on the internet. actually on auction site ebay in an effort to reach new customers and regain lost marketshare. the new venture involves dealerships in california at first but gm hopes it will expand nationally as soon as september. let's go to our cnbc auto

reporter in michigan. are there any targets of the sales yet? >> reporter: no, no targets, melissa. really, this is a bit of a crap shoot in terms of how effective this is going to be. clearly it helps on the marketing side. with all of the eyeballs ebay attracts general motors hopes more people will give the new cars from general motors, the new trucks a chance, a look, at least look at the website. in california, general motors has been struggling for years to reverse the trend of losing ground to the foreign automakers. so that's why california was picked as the test market. also, they believe there's a more tech savvy population there. people who would be willing to buy a car through e-bay. remember, the cars are not delivered through ebay but delivered through a dealership. they're not cutting out the dealers but simply augmenting the process, giving people another way of seeing what general motor cars are available out there. if they're successful we could see it ramp up across the country. >> what are the terms of the

agreement? why wouldn't gm just go ahead and build a site itself and go to gm.com for consumers? why do they have to pay ebay to do anything here?? >> you can do that right now through gm. they'll put you in touch with a dealer. gm.com is not going to get the same number of eye balls as ebay. ebay motors has been one of the fastest growing web portals in terms of people looking for an automobile. granted, almost all of that is people who are looking for a used car. there is a belief, however, that people who are in the market not only for used cars but for new cars are going to go to this web portal and check this out. remember, it wasn't long ago, less than ten years, that general motors along with the other auto makers all said we'll cut the dealers out and sell directly to people through the internet. well, guess what? the franchise laws in all the states said, uh-huh. you can't do that. you'll sale car in the state. you have to go through a dealer. so this is finally the culmination of the efforts from general motors to do something with the internet to bring people onboard.

>> back to the auto trade, this is really a question. cutting out the auto salesman is the exciting thing for everybody probably but looking around to ford, are these guys going to play part of this game? do they need to? is this almost a desperation move by gm? as i look at the ford trade here, i think this is really where i'm going with this. we think we've seen a very good run here.. i think you have the economy versus luxury trade going on in the auto space where i think ford is a winner, toyota is a winner, daimler is a loser and i think gm is a loser because people can't buy this stock. >> i think you're right about that in terms of the trade right now but getting back to your other point about who's got momentum right now and whether this is a desperation move by general motors, i think it's a no loss situation for gm on the marketing and public relations standpoint. all they're doing is giving people another avenue for seeing gm vehicles. and there's no loss here for them. so i think it's a win-win for them and ebay. >> thanks so much for your time. we appreciate it.

it's going to cost them something presumably. is this good for ebay to turn the tables? >> i don't know. i'll take the other side, i'm short for it, staying short. they've got all the good news already in the price action of the stock. what else is coming out near term to me moves lower. >> i think it's great for gm. there is a gm site. i've been on it and ebay is going to get a lot more eyeballs so i think it could benefit gm significantly. >> i think we have to go to commercial. >> you don't like the music playing? >> no. makes me nervous. >> coming up next on "fast money" breaking down the mystery behind trading and what ben bernanke might say this week that could ruin the summer beach party. >> we hope ben bernanke takes up knitting because if he doesn't thread the policy needle investors may get stuck. and the need for speed. is the split second stock

picking necessary to keep this market functioning? plus, in his playing day this former nfl linebacker tried to stop quarterback comebacks. this time he's cheering them on.

welcome back to "fast money." i want to alert you to a fast flash. look at shares of goldman sachs. it had been the market leader but lately a lagger trailing down 2% as the rest of the market has rallied by about 7%. pete, you flagged this for us. okay, joe. let's talk about the fed meeting. >> i love deutscha bank. >> getting back to goldman sachs? >> it's showing a little weakness recently. a couple days ago it was 170 and now 160 so $10 is a significant pullback but are people just taking a little money off the table and moving it into the cities and bank of americas, maybe a little beta, little bang for their buck looking at those folks as the consumer starts to repair itself and you start to see the economy maybe show some signs of strength who has the most that were in the write-off category, it was definitely

those two names and morgan stanley, goldman sachs a lot less. >> we talked about this today.y. no way the market continues to move higher without the participation of a name best in breed like goldman sachs. you can't tell me people moving money from goldman sachs into aig and citigroup leads the market higher. goldman sachs is one of the leaders of the market and has been all year and we need its participation for the market to extend the rally. >> let's move to the next trade and actually talk to joe now. we have a two-day fed meeting starting tomorrow and everybody wants to know what the fed is going to say. we already expect some sort of rate hike in january. that's what the fed funds futures are telling us at this point. what can we expect in terms of commentary that will help move the markets? >> melissa, i think we basically have the same statement we had in june. they just change the date, leave everything as is and don't do anything. first do no harm and that would be great for the markets. it would be great for fixed income.. no change in quantitative easing. just leave everything the way

it's been. >> do you guys agree? no change if they came out the exact same statement would that be enough -- >> what will it take for the fed to have to change that zero interest rate policy statement which i think goes on for the foreseeable future because i think it's a political nightmare if they change that. what should we be looking for? everybody after this gdp number and the auto number said we're in a different economy. >> tim, i would say three things. number one the unemployment rate has to move lower. number two core inflation has to stay very contained. three, we actually need to have some job gains. we don't have any job gains. the fed's not going to do anything. the problem is as one of the head traders i work with says to me, when the market senses the fact that the fed might go once or twice they're going to have like 12 tight engs. we county have 50 basis points tightening but 300. if they move too soon they'll abort the recovery so we have to have the fed say, look. we're not doing anything for a long time.

don't feel you have to make a change. just say air going fishing and that's it. >> the commercial real estate market, ben bernanke in his testimony in june spoke directly about it. he was concerned about commercial real estate, cm, bs backing those through it, possible extension. what do you think? is commercial real estate a legitimate concern right now in front of the next couple months? i think it is for the regional banks a problem.m. we all know this though. it's only 2% of gdp. this has been the most advertised train wreck that's been happening now. i think given everything else we've had with sub prime all day, everything else, the yield curve is steep.p. the earnings power of these banks has never been greater. we haven't even seen any m and a and equity issuance yet outside of financials.. i think we can earn our way out of this problem. >> here on the desk, given everything he's saying is going to happen tomorrow or the next day how do we trade this market? what will the reaction be with no change whatsoever in the

statement? >> time heals all wounds tan seems to be as joe said for the banks, it's always the guys most exposed to the consumer and extending out credit card liability and mortgage problems. i love jp morgan. the stock still trades well as we talked about this entire space. jp morgan is the one still to own. >> if joe is correct and there is no real concern in terms of commercial real estate you've got to think that the regionals that have been priced basically in an armageddon scenario, they are probably the buying opportunity. >> the down side still scares me.. i think we're bumping up against levels we're at but probably shouldn't be here.e. i think we're ahead of ourselves. i don't know what they're going to say over the next couple days. i fear the down side. too many people have gotten complaints, the bull market is in full effect. we're going to 10,000 in the dow. i don't see it happening. >> because of the down side if you look at somebody like citi or bank of america you think, man, my down side is not nearly what it could be in some of these other names.s. that aeps why you're probably seeing something like citi trade over a billion shares in nine of

the last 11 trading days, incredible numbers moving in there trying to take advantage of a consumer that is supposedly getting a little bit better. >> number one, be long equities, early stage cyclicals. number two, be long and three i'd be long the dollar which i think right now are three major nonconsensus trades in the market. >> interesting. thanks so much for joining us here. next trade, high frequency trading has gotten a lot of press, much of it negative.. our next guest has a different take and a way to play the back lash. our guest runs an investment firm. great to have you with us. first of all obviously flash trading has been in the news a lot. how lucrative can flash trading be? >> probably can be very lucrative because it involves front running potentially of your clients but we and most high frequentary traders don't

engage in flash trading. there's a pretty big misconception that high frequency trading equals flash trading.g. it's just not so. >> are you concerned at all about government regulation of high frequency trading in general? >> yeah, of course i'm concerned. it wouldn't make a lot of sense. it's very important and very good in the market place. high frequency traders account for say half the volume on the u.s. exchanges. that's a lot of liquidity being provided that could go away. i'm not the only one who should be concerned though. in the event that high frequency trading is banned or impeded significantly you could easily imagine the stock exchanges, goldman sachs and other types of big brokerage firms suffering pretty dramatically. >> explain to our viewers exactly what the model is for high frequency trading. what is the intent? when are you out of a trade?? how long are you holding something? >> most people would give you different definitions for high frequency trading. probably the single thing everyone would agree on is you're in and out of the trade within the same day so you're

not taking the position overnight. >> is it day trading? >> pretty much. day trading with computers. >> bring it home for all the lawmakers and average investors. if there is some sort of ban if that impacts high frequency trading and the number of trades is in fact limited how does that impact the average investor? >> the most obvious impact is that right now if you look at spreads, bid offer spreads, if you want to buy or sell shares of a liquid stock, that spread is only one penny wide right now. if you were to get rid of say half the liquidity that spread could easily widen out to rival what it was a few years ago before high frequency trading was a big deal which was say a nickel wide or even wider. if you remember back before decimalization if you had 1/16 of a dollar you could easily return to that kind of spread without high frequency trading with every transaction. it becomes a lot more expensive. >> all right.t. thanks so much for your insight

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welcome back to "fast money." coming up in the sex half cond the program. options traders are betting on a big move. we'll tell you when they see volatility picking up again. was today's 5% drop in rimm a buying opportunity? only the charts hold the answer. plus the trade on two big solar stocks ahead of earnings reports. did the stimulus boost their profits this quarter? but first all this week we are looking at turn-around stories in our new series "back from the dead." here's why. five months ago the country was headed for another great depression. but now -- >> the worst may be behind us. >> from apple to even aig most stocks are on a monster comeback ride from the crisis lows. now this week on "fast money"

it's time to separate the rags from the riches. some stocks are truly back from the dead while others are just a short squeeze. former nfl linebacker pete najarian knows a thing or two about great comebacks and tonight goes to vancouver for a copper miner on the comeback trail. is it fast money from here or just a flash in the pan? let's find out. >> pete is watching tech resources more than 400% this year. so it's kind of in that turn-around already. >> absolutely. this stock absolutely was given up for dead then suddenly after a deal a year ago or just last year you started to get a little momentum and a little of that natural resources play. you've got copper, the oil, just about everything, metallurgical. i don't think this is over yet. there's plenty of up side. they have a great infusion of capital, 17% by the china investment corps.. you have to like the direction. they're shorpg ing up their bale

books. >> a big exposure to sink and the deal you talked about, pete, their balance sheet was so heavily impaired that the rise in things like zinc and copper made this a better play. i agree it's going higher. >> why is the dirty metal including zinc? >> the ore --. >> had to say that word. >> time for today's edition -- >> goldman sachs had trouble at the 41 level in april and again may. i think it makes its way to 35. >> we have a big pop. for priceline.com.m. >> not only did they beat other second quarter but their third quarter raised the rest of it and you have to love what william shatner is doing for these guys. the commercial is fantastic. the stock goes higher. it's probably ready for a pullback. >> barnes and noble. >> they got up to 28.78.

3.7 million shares. you know where it closed? only 97 cents higher, 25 bucks.. that tells you everything you need to know about barnes and noble. run for cover. >> those media stocks today, got a pop, tim? >> rupert murdoch has the right shoe on this. cbs, begine cbs, ginette. the names are up higher.r. >> go back to june 26th. 75 million shares and we told you to pull the rip cord then. i think it continues to move lower from here. >> a pop for the maker of pete's favorite food. >> oh, boy. >> let me tell you. no one buys more spam than hawaii. that's what these guys make. the feed costs are cheaper. they're doing phenomenally well. giddy-up for the big guys at hormel. >> is that what you eat? >> what a combo. 19.37 when spam was launched. it was in 1937.

pop here? >> stock was downgraded today $32 price.. i think you could buy this and you know what else? let's bring microsoft in. microsoft will get in this space as well. >> dropper rbs was down 7%, tim. >> this stock is dead. 70% owned by the uk government in an environment where it's more onerous than it is here, by barclay's. your name over there. >> a pop for edward williams. the 47-year-old kansas native, the definition of lucky after winning the lottery for the second time in one year. mr. williams won $75,000 last september playing a $10 scratch ticket. on wednesday he defied odds and won a jackpot worth nearly $900,000 in the super kansas cash drawing. he doesn't look that happy though.. why? >> because you want to win millions. >> did you see that thing on the curse of the lottery winners? everybody ended up dead a year later. >> i have to figure they checked that ticket a couple times on the second go-around.

>> absolutely. well, congratulations, mr. williams. up next, cracking the charts for a look at what to do next with the dollar and with rimm plus the setup ahead.ri the way the stock market's been acting lately you may wonder if you've been doing the right thing. is the advice you've been getting helping or hurting? are the fees you're paying really worth it? td ameritrade's fees are fair and straight-forward. their research is independent and unbiased. their investment consultants are knowledgeable and there when you need them. so why not talk to one? announcer: call today to schedule a free investment check-up, or visit a td ameritrade branch.

welcome back. we're live at the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square where the market edged away today can the summer rally last through the dog days of august? for the answer we go to our chart center back at cnbc headquarters for some chartology work. greg troccoli is standing by. looking at the s&p 500 what are the charts telling you? >> one thing i want to keep in mind is if you look at the chart here, i'm looking at the moving average line. the moving average line dating back to about march has only been negative and slow for eight days. over the last five months. it's still positive. we are not that far above price action above the moving average line so it's not as if we've had this run away train here. that being said, i think history repeats itself. if you look back in the chart you can see on several occasions as the market popped up it eventually eroded back to equilibrium. it did it this date. it did it most recently when we

were over sold a few weeks back. at this point i think we can come back to that. that may be around 97965.. by no means are we grossly oversold. no means have we run away. i do believe we can retrace back to equilibrium. >> why are you using the 21-day moving average and not like a fifth year 200 day? >> great question. number one, on "fast money" and the way in the last ten years trading has become so much shorter term there are 20 to 22 business days in a month and a four-week lookback in any of the markets recently is like a lifetime and i think that's important to look at. >> what are some of the other charts you're looking at, greg? >> if you look at the euro got a little lucky, guys. i've been looking for 145 to be the resistance area and as of thursday, we came up to 1.44 and change. i printed out a recommendation to my readers thursday night to sell the euro on the opening friday morning. by the friday bell, i had about two big figures of profit under my belt.

you can see the trend line that dates back to february, 2009. comes up here at around 1.38. again, i think the dollar was oversold. i think it makes up some ground here. i'm looking for around 1.38. if the market can get below 1.41, i'll just continue to lower and take a conservative approach. >> greg, when you look at the techniqueals everyone is talking about the overweight trades, whether it's everybody being short and the dow having to pile back in or guys that need to be the other way on the euro, how much of that are you seeing and as a technical analyst what do do you about that? i don't think the dollar is going a lot higher but in the short run i think it's going to go a lot lower. >> tim, you have to pick your entry point quite well. otherwise you're a pretty disciplined trader like myself. you'll get stopped out. as i said when i opened up i got a little lucky here and hit the right point coming into friday morning. so at that point i have a good entry and a good profit right now. so even 1.38 to me which is pretty conservative and just reflects a minor correction i've got a pretty good trade.

>> i want to quickly steer you to rimm because they got a downgrade today. what are you seeing in the charts? >> i don't know if it was peter joe that said their stock was elected against a long position. i think that was prudent.t. this stock has now run into trouble and today it was below the 21-day moving average line. it traded 80 last month. it only got up to -- it traded 85 last month, excuse me. it only got up to 80 reents 0 . i think we can go down to about 67. i would outright short the stock. >> thanks so much. >> thank you, melissa. coming up next i think we're head headed for this and market traders aren't so sure. they're seeing volatility on the horizon and will tell you how to play it.

time now for some options action. a bit flat today. but smart monday aey says it is here to stay. our guest joins us from the cboe. what is vix pricing in terms of

the winter? >> when i look at vix futures come this fall traders are pricing in a rise meaning option prices may rise come september, october, november. in other words you may see volatility creep back into this market.. now, one thing i would have to say about that, though, is people are paying up to have this protection.n. hedge funds, institutions are taking a look at some of this action right now. seeing the vix fall back into the mid 20s and saying the 200-day moving average is still around 40 in the vix. we could see volatility going forward. i've made a ton of profits on my rise up in the market and need to protect it and go out and buy some protection against the positions that i have it on right now and that's why you're seeing some of the futures trade a little higher expecting more volatility coming into play this fall. i don't know if that happens though. i have to be honest. >> is there a trade specifically related to the vix, brian? >> well, if there is one place to actually go out and buy options and buy protections i have to say the consumer is in question mark right now. does unemployment continue to work and improve?

that's going to have an effect on retailers. i looked at macy's.s. there was a big options trade.e. selling options in november indicating macy's may be ranged between $14 and $19 but i have to say i would rather go out and buy options in the retailers because you could see some volatility. i think that's where the volatility comes from in this marketplace rather than the broader market. the broader market is only moving less than 1% a day right now. >> brian, is there anywhere you're seeing right now because of volatility so low when we're talking about a 25 relative to where we were coming from and you talked about the 200-day moving average being about 40 is there anywhere you're seeing opportunities to sell some of the premiums because they are inflated too much? >> yes. certainly. you take a look at the broader markets, the s&p 500, that's a great opportunity to buy that index right now. look at technology. it's been strong and continues to consolidate. take a look at other areas such as some of the oil and services and commodity plays. i think their move up has been a little stretched. you may see sideways movement

now in oil and some of those related names. that's where you want to go out and sell the vol in some of the areas where there have been big market moves up so far. i think there will be consolidations of those types of names and the risky names like the retailers is where you want to buy the volatility. >> brian, thanks so much. catch more options action every friday night at our new time slot a little earlier, 8:30 p.m. eastern time starting this friday, august 14th. get your action a little earlier on friday nights. all right. final trade right after the break. oof!

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all right. let's do the poll of the day here.. tonight's question assuming the recession is over should you buy stocks right now? you have two choices. a, yes. or, b, no. surprise rally has left stocks overvalued already. log on to cnbc.com/fast money. >> looking for short ideas, ayi, acuity brand. >> i think it's time to byte vix. >> research in motion taking a little beating. i think you get this thing anything close to 70, thereabouts, a great opportunity. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. we'll see you at 12:45 for the

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