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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  August 13, 2009 6:00pm-6:37pm EDT

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i'm jim cramer and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game! >> he's nuts! they're nuts! they know nothing! >> i always like to say there's a bull market somewhere. >> "mad money." you can't afford to miss it! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i just like days like today. my job is not just to educate but to entertain. so call me. all day today with the market trending pretty flat, dow up 36, nasdaq rallying ten, all i heard about is the endless bad-mouthing of pretty much every company that says anything positive at all.
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people are demanding perfection in earnings. that makes no sense to me at all. they're disturbed about walmart's sales. even as the earnings are terrific. and the company said it was having a fantastic back-to-school season. hey, back-to-school, i'll take it, but i thought the earnings were supposed to be awful. there would be no back-to-school season. i'm stumped here. who do i believe? the reporters who may be the management of the world's largest retailer with 100 million customers. it didn't matter. the media was unappeased. they were even more negative when macy's -- because the big department store tempered expectations. gave negative guidance. but what matters is that macy macy's -- get out of my way -- had earnings. that's what i care about.
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how can we overlook that? that's called profits. that's what we're in the game for. why not temper expectations? the road to bad pr and endless short selling is filled with companies that overpromised and underdelivered. macy's got smart. less inventory on hand. fewer mark-downs. better back-to-school and christmas seasons coming. that's what we want. see, that's what makes the stock go higher. because now they won't have to throw sales and get rid of merchandise they bought for the summer at cut-rate prices. that will cause gross margins to go up, which is what the real buyers care about. the stock buyers. no, no, no. the press cites poor sales by big macy's supplier liz claiborne. as an indicator of the health of macy's. talk about being too negative. liz is getting its butt kicked by jones apparel.
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its most ferocious competitor. talking to liz about macy's sales is like talking to burger pawn and not mcdonald's or wendy's about hamburger sales. false tell. or how about urban outfitters that had a meager same-store sales increase. but the earnings were okay. come on. the earnings were amazing. they were sharply ahead of what even the biggest bulls on wall street were looking for. i'm sure someone can talk about the same-store sales, but to me it's amazing that this chain, which includes urban -- my daughter likes their shoes. she also likes the shoes at nordstr nordstroms. anyway, it's amazing that urban outfitters beat last year's numbers at all. last year was pre-depression, post-stimulus checks. it was a great time. and they beat it. to me it shows that urban
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outfitters isn't last executing well. like the urban of old. and execution matters. or at least it used to matter before the garden variety depression. i'm thinking to listen to the press, the only guy who executes well is the guy at the end of the green mile. or how about caterpillar? gigantic move. but no real growth. whoa. has hair on it. sorry. but if you focused only on sales, you missed the big picture. and what is that? simple. you've got to understand this because i've traded this stock since 1982. listen to me, for heaven's sakes. listen to me. thank you. it's simple. a company like cat at this point in the cycle should be losing scads of money. it should be like the mob in
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season two of "the shield" when the money train got stolen. cat is a gigantic cyclical company that should have swung to a loss at this point in the economic cycle, but because it took aggressive action -- okay, lots of layoffs, it's doing outstandingly. how about this one? you'll love this because you're thinking of it, too. cash for clunkers. how many times have you heard that cash for clunkers borrowed sales from the future and now futurer will be bad. wait a second. this is a great program. you know what i say? has it occurred to you, how do people even have the money to afford a car right now? how can they afford to buy it even with a check for $4,000? given this hard market, isn't it impressive that people are shopping for a car? i heard someone say that, well, you know what, they -- they -- they didn't shop at one place. they shopped at another. they shopped. okay? that's great for ford, which had momentum even ahead of cash for clunkers. i bet you they borrowed sales.
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i'll take any sales. that's what people saw yesterday. that stock went so much higher on so-so sales. down huge year over year. didn't matter. didn't matter. this is a gigantically profitable company when the cycle turns. how can it not turn next year? housing stabilized. next comes house price appreciation after stabilization. you have to look at the areas that have been hardest hit to see the stabilization. other areas -- i've been negative about new york, but the media would have none of it. not when it can talk about foreclosures and underwater mortgages. i'm reading tell brothers and thinking -- >> house of pleasures. >> and they're thinking -- >> house of pain. >> the media has the pulse. bob toll is only the kre ceo of largest home builder. what does he know? the media says that the numbers are all bad. the market says we don't care how you get there because we are
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blown away, blown away that you weren't in trouble after the worst economic contraction since the great depression. you know how i know? you know how i know that that's what the buyers are thinking? because did you know that in every one of those situations i've mentioned, avenue oevery o them, the stocks have jumped up huge despite endless media harping and negativity. if you read the reports written about these companies in the papers, you would think sales continue to slide at macy's. you think that everybody is going out of business. they're sliding. they should be going out of business, but they're thriving. any one of these could have made you a large amount of money. every one of these stocks, if only you close your ears to the sirens, if only you went, i know who -- i know who can make us money here. if only you went into goal mode. i'm not listening, i'm not listening. to make money in this market.
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i went to harvard to do that? the media wants everything. better sales, better margins, better earnings. you can't have all those things at this moment. it's too awful. the fact that these companies aren't at death's door, that is the real story. how could they all even make it to this promised land? i would have bet if i didn't know better that almost all of these companies would have been out of cash right now. begging for money, begging on their knees. if these companies can put up these kinds of earnings in this depressed economy, who knows how much they can make when things get better. >> that was easy. >> with the operative term being when. these results, are nothing short of miraculous given how darn awful this economy is. no wonder they're going up. oh, i know. i hear you. here's the press takeaway on me. come on, jim.
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that's why the s&p is at 800. what if it's over 1,000? it isn't the market priced for perfection to which i say no. the s&p should never have been at 666. the march low. the demonic march low. in the first place. all we're doing now is going back to levels that are pretty decent, which is what they are now. pretty decent. here's the bottom line. i need you to forget the negativity. i need you to be golum. what the media wants, huh-uh. the buyers, they don't want it. hopefully you know that american merchandisers and retail sellers are performing amazingly given the circumstances. i applaud them. that's the judgment rendered in the last week by the buyers of all these companies. they have the votes. not the media. to paraphrase uncle joe stalin as opposed to actual great,
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great, great uncle vladimir lennon, how many dollars does the media have? none. the buyers have hundreds of billions. don't let the press confuse you. we are almost -- but things are better than you think and still improving. by the day. how about eddie in kentucky. eddie. >> caller: boo-yah, jim. >> let me give you a -- give you a soviet socialist republic boo-yah. >> caller: 3.8% in the second quarter results, is it time to make mad money with mho despite the foreclosure crisis? >> well, look, the foreclosure crisis is all -- now, look. i'm not denying there is a foreclosure crisis. if your house is being foreclosed upon, you're in a crisis mode. that's what happens. what i'm saying is the banks don't need to dump homes because they have full reserves thanks
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to our friend, buddy, pal tim geithner who i regard as pretty good. they don't have to dump the homes. but we don't want to own mi homes. we don't want to own homes. why not own a mortgage company? why not own the bank of america, which has 12% of the mortgage market. and i think the inventory of unsold foreclosed homes they have is going higher, not lower. now i'm going to go to john in my old home state of pennsylvania. john. >> caller: boo-yah from pittsburgh steeler country. >> holy cow. he had the horse sense to not talk about the pirates because they give that team away every day. go ahead. >> caller: steeler country. >> all right, all right. steel country. rub it in. rub it in. >> caller: all right. hey, the next generation of vehicles are going to be powered entirely or in part by lithium ion batteries just like cell
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phones and laptops are today. also one of the world's largest untapped reserves of lithium is located in blolivia. are there any plays today or in the future with lithium ion batteries or in the mining of lithium? >> champ, listen to me and listen good. it looks like it's sqm. that's your latin american play. they're sitting on the biggest pile of lithium in the world, other than the pharmaceuticals that make lithium. those are two different things. someone ought to know that. all right. stop listening to the media. this is a market of buying for the buyer. remember what uncle joe stalin said. how many divisions does the media have? "mad money" will be right back. coming up, can the justice department's antitrust crackdown mean sell? cramer desikts one agriculture
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stock that might be a biohazard to your portfolio. bbbbbbbbbbbbbb
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after eight years of living under the bush administration's philosophy of a government for, by, and of the corporation, it can be hard to remember that the biggest threats to a great investment don't necessarily come from the competition or from the feds or from the
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economy. often, the greatest danger to profits comes from washington. as the obama administration has done a pretty persistent job of reminding us. that's why in tonight's "cell block," i want to talk about a great company that could be under siege. its profits under attack. made vulnerable by an administration that believes in incredibly nutty things. things like the -- like the trust act, the antitrust act and perhaps the most dangerous concept of all. oh, man. i might as well say it. a government of, by, and for the people. but if you listen to this company, if you read the conference call and the research reports, you won't see anything about this new danger. you won't find anyone writing
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about it in the money and investing sections of the papers. and the company seems unaware that there's any threat at all. at least according to its conference dogs and dog and pony shows. i think that's a mistake, which is why i'm bringing this story to your attention. i'm talking about the curious case of monsanto. here's a company i adore. with a stock that i think has been terrific. one i've been behind for years. it's an agriculture biotech business with such an edge over its competitors, unstoppable, which is one to two years ago of anyone, including dupont, when it comes to any given technology. i think it may come under attack from the obama administration as an alleged monopolist engaged in allegedly anti-competitive behavior. there have been plenty of signs to me that the antitrust division of justice may come after monsanto. the administration has already
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said it's taking an extensive look at concentration in agribusiness. the regulators releasing statements saying they're committed to examining the level of competition in seed. that's monsanto's bread and butter. it's a leader in corn seed, 38% share of soybean. u.s. cotton, 41%. after a series of acquisitions that i believe could have created the idea of monsanto's potential anticompetitive behavior. obama's justice department has scrammed the old bush administration's -- well, i regard it pro-monopoly guideline. plus, last week in a speech in st. louis, not just pujols. it happens to be monsanto's home town. deputy assistant attorney general phillip wiseler said the government will be stepping up its antitrust work in
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genetically modified seed. he went to st. louis to say this. i found out about it on page 83 of the "wall street journal." you've got to keep an eye on the front pages to make sure you don't miss this kind of threat. now, this speech was addressed to, of all people, a farmers' advocacy group called the organization for competitive markets that's been a huge critic of monsanto in the past. all right, it's partially funded by dupont, one of its few competitors. if the government wants to go after monsanto, the case, to me, seems pretty strong. when farmers buy monsanto's seeds, they have to sign a stewardship agreement and a contract saying they won't save monsanto's seeds from one year to the next or replant seeds. this forces the farmers who want to use monsanto's seeds to buy new ones year after year, paying higher and higher prices.
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remember, monsanto's technology is far ahead of the competition. if you use somebody else's, it would be a huge competitive disadvantage to other farms. traditionally, farmers have always saved seeds from year to year, but if you try to do it with seeds bought from monsanto, some people say they'll sue your pants off until you cave. monsanto's harshest critic is a share cropper. i think the government is worried about the ideal of the family farmer being destroyed by monsanto's practices. i am a statesman and gentleman farmer in the thomas jefferson mold. this seems pretty straight forward. why do i call it the curious case of monsanto? because there wasn't a single question on the earnings call about this. not a bit about monopoly or possible justice department action. because it's not in any of the excellent wall street research pieces i've read. and because just today at its annual whistle-stop tour through the corn belt, monsaunto
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announced it's boosting prices. these guys are begging the justice department to come after them. or it's as if monsanto hasn't realized that antitrust is no longer being run by the commerce department. that ended when obama took over from bush. i think monsanto might be in a tough spot here. the company's pretty much had to raise prices in order to avoid a wall street angering profit shortfall because round-up is showing signs of a slowdown. with gross profits from the round-up projected to be cut in half in 2010, it's a commodity chemical. especially from chinese producers. it's causing enormous pressure on pricing. the only way monsanto can offset that is by raising prices on these seeds. like it announced it's doing today. how do you -- how the heck do you put through a h42% price increase when you're already under the heat from the justice
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department that they are? they're either tempting the rather of obama, which we know is worth than the rath of kahn, or risk an earnings shortfall. somehow the street is just worried about declining profits from round-up. and monsanto is oblivious. they're being bombarded by criticism right now. in some movie called "food inc." which attacks monsanto's business practices. the still, i could see justice with a capital "j" pursuing a restraining order against monsanto based on the accusations in the movie because they're so darn inflammatory and this antitrust department wants to make a name for itself. memo to monsanto shareholders, you better hope the guys of justice don't go out to the movies. if they did, the subpoenas would be flying. president obama went to harvard law school like me so he should
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know what a great case the government could make against monsanto. am i telling you to flee from the stock? maybe. some headline risk here. i think monsanto happens to be in the food business and i've been a huge backer. as long as we had a government that was by and for the corporation. that's not the case anymore. this company ended up being slapped around by the justice department. now that it actually cares about antitrust. it cares about sherman and clayton, whoever clayton was. he was a congressman. the bottom line, when the justice department, the antitrust division, starts gunning for a company, it can play havoc with great investments. it's my job to alert you to these dangers, even if i still think monsanto is a great story. how could it hurt you to take some profits anyway? after the break, i'll try to make you more money. coming up, with new gas legislation in the pipeline, cramer has one stock to help you fill up on mad money.
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i think the natural gas industry has finally gotten some decent lobbyists. that's why these stocks have been soaring even as the prices of the commodity is going lower and lower and lower. looks like the democrats in congress have stopped painting all fossil fuels with the same broad brush and learned to love clean, cheap, plentiful, especially here in america, natural gas. as a matter of policy, this makes a lot of sense. if you want to fight climate change, you have to get your hands dirty. while it would take decades before wind and solar can make a difference, using natural gas is an interim replacement fuel.
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well, let's say you did that for oil. it cuts down carbon emissions by 25% to 30% from oil. and nitrogen oxide emissions from 35% to 60%. plus, a compressed natural gas is 40 cents a gallon cheaper. there's so much of it in this country that we can't store the stuff' i think we should be like argentina. yes, argentina. they have 21.7% of all the vehicles in the country. the sheer number of people required to make the switch happen could make a dent in the unemployment numbers. after all we discovered in canada, this would -- well, i mean, the canadian pipeline that comes out of colorado. this would be a giant step towards energy independence. yeah. we got so much stuff in this country and we're going to start exporting it. i mean, that's crazy. we're exporting this natural gas.
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i thought the problem was that we were importing a lot of oil. switching to natural gas solves all of our domestic policy problems and some foreign policy problems, too. it's a great idea. that's why i made it part of cramer's capitalist manifesto. on this show, we care about making money. from the money-making angle, there are a lot of great ways to speculate on natural gas as a fuel. two days ago, we heard the story from the ceo of clean energy fuels, a large operator of natural gas fueling stations. i've got a new one for you today. it's new if you've never watched the show. i've talked about it before. i talked about it too early, frankly. it is fuel systems solutions, fsys. fuel systems is a company that makes many of the components that allow vehicles to run on natural gas like pressure regulators, fuel injectors, flow-control valves. it's worth pointing out that i recommended fsys in august of
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2008. that was bad. the stock was at $36.50. it fell slightly below $10. the marbliket crashed. it's bounced back to $30 now. i jumped the gun on these natural gas fuel stocks. i was wrong to recommend this a year ago. it was a fatal investing mistake. i assumed congress would do the right thing. this time around, i've learned my lesson. there's a bill going through congress called the nat gas act that will extend the tax incentives in place for tax refueling pumps, create a tax credit for companies that produce natural gas vehicles and require half the vehicles the federal government purchases over the next five years to be fueled by natural gas. it's going to be huge for fsys as it makes the systems that allow cars to run on natural gas and to convert gasoline-powered cars to natural gas. i say if the bill passes, but
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it's much closer to when. i was burned once by assuming that the democratic majority would push for natural gas. this time the bill has a huge amount of co-sponsors on both sides of the aisle and the obama administration has gone to bat for it with rahm emanuel voicing his support. right now, only .5% of american vehicles run on that gas. i think the stock will shoot higher once the bill passes, which is why i'm talking about it now and not after the ink is dried by the president. while we wait for the legislation to move through the bowels of congress. the core business in europe remains strong. the italian government just increased the incentives it provides for natural gas conversions, turning gasoline vehicles into natural gas ones, to 650 euros. and fiat said that 30% of its vehicle orders in march 2009 were for natural gas. 30%. plus there's another kicker.
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september 2009, the new euro 5 emissions standard comes into effect. that's more natural gas conversion as carmakers have to have a 28% reduction in emissions and an 80% reduction in particulate matter. it goes a long way toward achieving those cuts. i would not be recommending fuel systems if it also hadn't reported a spectacular second quarter a week ago, earning 46 cents per share. beating the street consensus estimate by 13 cents. it makes you money. it actually makes money. it's profitable. hurr hurray. the company raised its expectations by 30 million, upped its gross margins from 25 to 27% range to between 28 and 30. trades at 15 times 2010 earnings. it's cheap for a company with 22% long-term growth. a lot of growth managers will pay 22 times earnings for that kind of growth.
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that would mike fsys a $43 stock and that's without the big earnings boost that i expect from the nat gas act. the bottom line, the idea is finally gaining traction in the u.s. and fsys would be one of the biggest winners of the passage of the bill. if the bill fails, something i don't expect this time, the company's core business in europe is still rock solid liking fsys a strong but speculative buy. there is no hurry. the bill is not going to pass tomorrow, the next day, the next day. two, if you don't use limited orders and you bid this stock up, you will be down. you will be losing money on monday. that's what happens. please use limit orders. wait a couple of days. the stock will be where it was yesterday. don in california, don. >> caller: boo-yah from the west coast. i've got a question for you. i'm looking at getting into natural gas. and i have been focusing on n-c
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