the dow down by 3/10 of a percent, and the nasdaq is currently still in the red, by only down by 4/10 of 1%. trish, what's happening on your end? >> hey, mandy. you know, the reality is, we're still looking at low value, and so that's an issue. it's been an issue all summer, frankly. down 24 points. much you're right, we're starting to see a little bit of a rally back. we'll see how this plays out as the day goes on. the day is still young. mr. pisani on the floor with me, as always, good to see you. deere a big one that people are following, conference call at 10:00 a.m. >> and basically confirmed what they implied in their notes, they're not going to make any money in the fourth quarter, the current quarter we're in right now, and here is the reason, equipment sales -- what's equipment sales? basically everything. basically, the company minus some of the credit division they've got. so down 34% is a business of a disappointment. and the reason it's going to be down 34% is they're lowering production because demand is weaker. so you've got the simple problem here, trish, as what we have

seen before. great management from a great company, but they can't get any sales on the top line here. the pattern here is pretty clear. good control, man -- >> i'm almost getting tired of it. >> i heard from the retailers, this is a similar situation from them. if it you take a look at the ag equipment company, you can see they're all to the down side. so a little pressure. we were expecting 35 cents in the current quarter from deere. now it's break even. >> the other issue is a lot of these analysts haven't entirely come down in their estimates for the rest of the year. at some point, are we going to start to see that, catch up with sort of the reality? >> that's a great question. >> as companies are not growing their top-line growth? >> here is the bears' main argument. analysts have been quietly raising their estimates of the cyclical names. and now there is some question, will they be under that pressure. look at alcoa, downgraded the stock, and they downgraded simply because they said, folks, look at the stock, up 150% from the march low. aluminum prices up 50%, but the fundamentals aren't there.

inventory levels for aluminum -- the inventory levels for aluminum are very, very high right now. remain very high. and its loss of capacity out there. there is aluminum, about a 50% run up. that's a good call for goldman. they did not lower their earnings estimates. >> goldman, did you hear that? pisani says it's a good call, so you know it is. bob pisani, thanks so much. we head uptown right now to rebecca jarvis standing by on the nasdaq, keeping an eye on it for us. hey, rebecca. >> hey, trish. what we are seeing here is a disproportionate weakness in the nasdaq. people should keep in mind with the shanghai composite, there are a number of names that trade here, and a lot of the tech names are multinational companies that get some of their revenue overseas from the likes of china, asia. also of note, you had earnings yesterday after the bell. looked weak to some of wall street, but did say they see signs of stabilization. the question is u is that flat line stabilization, and we see the likes of dell under 3/10 of

a percent to the down side. of meantime, a baby goog was born five years ago, it jumped today, not a lot of action in the stock. back then, 100 bucks. meantime, perry ellis another story what we have been hearing out of retailers, the apparel maker essentially cost controls, expense management helped them beat. but they are saying their guidance looks like it's in line. but profitability, they anticipate it could come back by 2010. the stock is up 7.9%. keep in mind, however, folks, it's a small-cap name. meantime, e-trade out with its record performance in terms of new accounts. that was looking good earlier, and dry ships. i want to call this one out, folks, because it's to the down side by 3%, tends to be correlated with the oil names, so it's an important one to watch, that big pop we saw in oil on the inventory data. mandy, back over to you. >> rebecca, thanks very much for that. so are we in for a correction,

and is buffett right about the balance sheet? let's ask our bull, tommy williams, president of williams financial advisors, and al bear, greenhouse economic strategist. of thank you very much for your time. let's start with you, the bear, dan. you know, buffett was talking about the fact that we're still seeing huge doses of medicine being told out to the economy, and he is worried about maybe the side effects of that medicine might be as ominous as the financial crisis itself. do you agree? >> well, actually, if you read through his op-ed, i agree almost entirely with everything that he is saying. the broader argument is what's going to be down the road from the stimulus measures that have been taken. i agree with him that here in the short term, some of those programs, if not all of them, effectively needed to be done. but there is little doubt that when you run a budget deficit as large as you have, when you print as much money as our government has, there are issues down the road, no doubt about that. >> and those issues down the road, staying with you for a second, dan, in terms of an exit strategy, are you confident that the government and fed is going to get it right? >> oh, no.

irrespective of whether i supported the actions or not, i think from a probability standpoint, you have to put the onus on their inability to get it right. there is no doubt that they have the tools to do so, the broader question is whether they are going to do so. and i think that's a political question that we're going to find out in the middle of 2010, whether they have, you know, the desire to so call, withdraw the punch bowl. >> absolutely, no. i just wanted to ask dan what his biggest concern right now is. we hear so much sort of debate over the inflation/deflation issue. what do you think is most pressing? >> i don't think inflation is a problem in the near-term. i think we're seeing negative year over year readings on cpi and core inflation is probably going to drift lower through the rest of the year. so i don't see much of an issue on that front. that said, certainly down the road, you know, budget deficits, 13% of gdp or so, assuming where gdp is, is problematic, and certainly the prospect of higher level of inflation is very real. >> well, do you think -- i mean,

you say it's not an issue in the near term, is perhaps deflation an issue in the near term, something some folks are worried about, given that there is so much drop-off in the consumer, and that's expected to continue for the foreseeable future. >> yeah, certainty from the consumer, you know, prices are going down across the board, and the overall slack in the economy is an issue with respect to keeping down wage pressures and inflation more broadly. but you are seeing a little bit of a turn in the economy here, and again, i'm in the w camp, and with respect to economic reform, and the first part of that w is a move higher. and so i think, you know, while we're dealing with disinflation and deflation right now, as the year progresses, and in terms of 2010, you'll probably see that reversed somewhere. >> yeah, it's interesting how we're all talking about a w, even though we're not quite out of the v yet. let's bring you in, i see you're more bullish about the state of affairs. >> very much so. i think what warn buffett was trying to say, though, was that the obama administration is an

emergency room physician type of appropriation. patients now in the emergency room, we'll see if there is the political will to do the things that need to be done. and probably not. i mean, this is probably going need to be another group of congress -- another group in congress, potentially another president. of i mean, somebody who can actually do rehab, and -- >> okay. what do you mean by rehab, though? you're not talking second stimulus, are you? >> well, i don't know what that means. all i do know is ben bernanke is the smartest guy in the room, and i've got a lot of confidence in his ability. listen, america has climbed a wall of worry, the american investor has, which has turned into the stairway to heaven. the exuberance of the american people right now, i think, is the real issue. and there is just a lot of reasons to think that the exuberance of the american people is going to carry us through this, and this pursuit -- >> the exuberance? okay. i think we're on two different levels here, because i'm looking at consumer spending, at retail sales numbers that are continuing to show a lot of weakness in the consumer.

that doesn't seem like much exuberance. >> wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute. the first half of the year, $2 million worth of men's under wear was sold, the number one product -- >> well, that's a necessity, right? >> it's a necessity. and the first half of the year, the american public bought what they needed. the second half of the year, the american public will buy what they want. in the second half, they want color tvs and big-screen tvs. >> how are they going to get the money to buy it? 9.4% unemployment and credit card companies continually cutting back on the amount that they'll lend. >> you're missing the big point, i think. there's $8 trillion sitting in cash. the american public is hoarding cash. there's three more trillion sitting in cds and cash equivalent. $11 trillion sitting there. i do think the american public has got to have a sell discipline. you can't do buy, hold and holds anymore, like historically the american public did. >> i'm also wondering, dan, let me bring you in on this, whether or not we're becoming too

impatient. because when you look at the facts and figures of that $787 billion in stimulus package, only about 12% of that was spent by july the 31 st. so there is still quite a lot of stuff to come through the system. >> absolutely. you can make sort of a broader point that the impact of a larger portion of the stimulus package has already been felt. you've had a tax cut, tax credit, some of the spending has been -- obviously, 12%, as you said, has been spent already, certain workers have been retained that otherwise would have been laid off. so certainly a larger percentage of the impact of the stimulus package has been felt. but there is no denying there is more to come. but to get back to the point made by the other guest, this is the -- exactly the argument right now, whether or not we're in a hope-based rally or a reality-based rally, and you have a whole group of people right now who are saying that subsequent to the deline in the equity market, subsequent to the decline in the balance sheets, everything is going to be fine in the second half of the year. and that very well may be.

i'm not, you know, certainly able to see the future. but just simply asserting that the first half of the year, we needed underwear, and in the second half of the year, i need tvs. i don't know necessarily where -- you know, i agree with trish. i don't know where we're seeing that. >> but a lot of the retailers have beening, home depot and sax have come up better than expected. so someone is spending. >> listen, no one is going to high hide in their cave and eat meat by candlelight. but if we're dealing with a consume they're is more focused on leveraging than deleveraging, credit standards are still tight, even if not to the degree they were. it doesn't matter whether or not i want to buy the tv, it's whether or not my credit card is going to let me buy the tv. >> can i give you a take-away on that? >> just real quick. got to wrap it up. >> yes, because i don't believe the consumer needs to go to his credit card or debt problem. the consumer is hoarding cash. and you can't keep 76 million baby boomers down. they love to consume, and the

american public, the american consumer will lead the world out of this recession. we have -- six months ago, we said life as we knew it in america was dead. that was wrong. it's wrong today, going forward, things look pretty bright. a lot of negative things we still have to deal with. much but we'll work through that. >> we hope you're right. >> we are right. >> debt to gdp, 100%. >> that's what got us in this problem in the first place. gentlemen, thanks for your time. up next, new developments on the ubs tax probe and how much money is out there to recover, anyway. and the nation's largest thrift bank says americans save more than they'll spend this holiday season. hmmm, sounds like the opposite of what we were talking about. find out why with ing direct ceo. that's happening ahead, only on "the call."

welcome back, oil rising back above the $70 mark, and a very bullish inventory report this morning with stocks falling quite significantly that pushed crude oil up by 2.4% on the board. trish? >> thanks rk, mandy. the swiss and u.s. government have signed an agreement to uncover thousands of americans who are suspected of evading u.s. taxes. mary thompson has the details. >> yes, the swiss government is handing over 4,450 account names, accounts that hold billions of dollars in assets. it's a settlement the irs says gives it unprecedented information about u.s. citizens

it believes who are evading taxes by hiding money off shore. irs commissioner douglas schulman saying it also should send a strong warning to anyone squirrelling away assets that should be taxed. >> as this agreement demonstrates, the world of international taxes has dramatically changed, and people hiding assets and income off shore, and from the irs need to get right with their government now. >> now, the settlement marks a big change from the beginning of the negotiations when the swiss government didn't want to hand over any names. of course, now it's handing over more than those 4,400. at one point, the irs saying these 4,400 plus accounts had $18 billion in assets, so the irs did decline to say what kind of money it expects to receive in return because of fines and back penalties, et cetera, once these issues are settled. of the irs also declining to give details about the account, saying they were buried in both size and type, and as well as keeping terms of the criteria,

they do include bank accounts, custody accounts, as well as sham trust. the irs says the swiss government is also going to be working with it regarding other financial institutions that have similar separations as ubs, and while it wouldn't say if it's investigating any other banks, the irs says it is getting a lot of leads. of reports, of course, say that ten other banks have been identified through a tax amnesty program that ends in this september as hoping to shield clients' money from the irs. as for ubs, the firm won't be paying any kind of fine to the irs, so it is responsible for sending out notices to the 4,450 clients, names it says were handed over in accordance with swiss law, law that fiercely guards the privacy of the country's banking clients. ubs chairman casper villager in a statement saying the agreement helps to resolve one of the bank's most pressing issue. another issue this all raises, what does it do to the world of swiss banking? performedly, it was tailored, but this bill is structured to

go after other off shore accounts, and it's a major step forward in piercing the veil of secrecy. >> mary thompson, thank you so much. how much money is really out there, and is the government crackdown a result of recessionary pressure and the need to find extra tax revenue? joining us to discuss the financial correspondent for politico, and asher ruinstein. aman, what do you think is behind this? the timing could be speculative. here we are in the worst recession since the great depression, and sure enough, the government is cracking down, more so than ever before on tax evasion. is that because they need the money? >> well, look, there is no doubt the united states government needs money right now, but this investigation has been going on for a very long time, so i think it's very trickery for the irs to sort of taylorel timing of these things to filing the investigatio investigations. they take on a life of their

own. more of what is going on is an effort by the u.s. government to send a strong signal to stop loss across the country, saying you will not be able to hide money anymore, we're going to go after you no matter where you put your money, anywhere in the world. that has a chilling effect i think on people who might be considering ducking their taxes. and i think they're hoping to gain more money from those people than they will from the people that they actually prosecute. >> asher, should the wealthy be on guard right now, should they be nervous? should people who may have done some kind of tax evasion really be paying attention to all this? >> well, here's the thing. we have to keep in mind that it's perfectly legal for americans to have funds off shore. they just have to keep their funds compliant. they need to do two things. number one, they need to disclose the existence of the account to the treasury department, and number two, they have to pay any taxes associated with those accounts. of so as long as as they do that, they're fine. >> asher, if i can follow up. a deal has been cut between the swiss government and the irs, and only involving 4,450 accounts. you've got clients, i believe,

with ubs accounts. so what are you advising them? are you saying, don't worry, you can breathe easy, it's only the 4,450, the others are okay, or are you saying, please confess now before you get really what could with a fine? >> i'm advising the latter. listen, ubs is just the tip of the iceberg. we know that this is going to be followed by investigations into other foreign banks, as well. so what i'm telling my clients, and those clients include ubs clients, as well as other banks in switzerland and other foreign -- >> do we know which particular banks might be next on the hit list? >> we have heard that hsbc and credit swiss are already under investigation by the irs. and we should also keep in mind that as a result of the information that the irs is getting from are the voluntary disclosure program thus far, other banks, other instions and other service providers are being -- >> the next question i had for you guys is you know what, there are ways that people can field their money from higher taxes

without having to put them off shore. or actually hide it all together. >> yep. >> but we'll save that for next time. out of time this time. thanks so much. great seeing you guys. coming up next, fewer americans are supporting the obama health care overhaul. so are the prospects of reform dead? howard dean joins us next for today's "call of the wild." >> plus, the head of ing direct will join us to discuss whether americans will spend or whether they will save this holiday season. and what it means for the economic recovery. it's all coming up only on "the call". mandy and myself will be right back. i'm racing cross country in this small sidecar, but i've still got room for the internet. with my new netbook from at&t. with its built-in 3g network, it's fast and small, so it goes places other laptops can't. i'm bill kurtis, and wherever i go, i've got plenty of room for the internet.

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welcome back. you're looking at the big board there, off 24, so we're trying to see a little recovery happening from earlier losses of the day, as we pointed out, is young, only coming up on 1125 right now. mandy. >> indeed it is, still time to go. a new nbc poll says americans remain skeptical about white house plans to overhaul the nation's health system. most troubling to the administration, only 41% approve of his handling of health care,

with 47% disapproving. moreover, just 36% believe it's a good idea, with only 24 thinking it will result in better health care. so in today's "call of the wild," how can health care reform happen if americans are not behind it? let's bring in money and policy columnist for reuters, and howard dean. thank you for joining us. james, why don't you have your say first? >> i think health care reform depends on how you define it. if if you define it as reform that is going to bring down cost, bend the curve, as they like to say, i think that's debt. i think that most democrats can hope for shoving something through reconciliation. it's going to be a truncated version. it will probably expand coverage, increase medicaid coverage, increase coverage for children, which i think is probably something governor dean would be in favor of. but that's not going to change the financial picture from medicare or how much we spend on health care. we need to do that, and we're

not doing that. >> in other words, basically saying the administration needs to get some scores on the board, and needs to make it look as if something is getting through, even if it doesn't benefit anybody? >> listen. in december, obama wanted to sign something. i think he'll sign something, which will be costly and expand coverage, but leave us in the same fiscal position we are now, which is precarious. >> what do you think, howard? do you think anything will get through? >> yeah, i disagree with that. i think that's the inside the beltway perspective. i think what will happen is you will get a fairly comprehensive bill. i think it will be simpler than what they're talking about now. for example, the public option could be just allowing people to sign up for medicare, with an adjustment to how medicare works. the insurance reform is important. they can strip some money out of the bill. they can put people in gradually in terms of the public option. but i think you will have real reform. one of the really important things that's happened over the past week is the administration has figured out who their friends are, and aren't. and it's clear the republicans are not their friends, they don't have to deal with them

anymore, they have no intention of voting for the bill. now we have a universe of legislators with a compromise between the blue dogs and progressives. >> well, hang on one second. >> isn't sure who their friends are, because -- now the left is angry, the right is angry, the centrists are angry. much it doesn't look like they have many friends. this. >> isn't really about left and right. of that's inside the beltway perspective. what this is about is what works and what doesn't. if this is about left and right, we would be hearing about single payer all of the time. >> and the fact that we're not hearing about single payer, that's why the folks on the left are angry, and the word is there may not be anything that may eventually lead to a full single-payer system. >> hang on. i have a question here. >> you can never under estimate how important that is. >> let me ask governor dean a question here. suppose jim is right, a very slim version of what the administration's proposal was gets through. but it's a very watered down version. do you consider that then a success or a failure?

>> that's not going to happen. because it will be a failure, and -- >> it will be a failure, you don't see a little success? people have tried this before. >> you wait and see what's going to happen. there is going to be a substantial bill that passes through the house sometime in late september. the senate bill, via conference committee. of i spoke to chris dodd about this yesterday. he has a great head on his shoulders. we're talking about one committee out of five that's causing a problem. >> what's that going to mean for the economy? if in fact governor dean is right and the whole shebang gets through, what is that going to do to the economy? >> listen, one, i don't think the whole shebang can get through under reconciliation. and two, it's no going to help the economy long-term, because it does nothing about costs. and by the way, the plan i described originally, that was like howard dean's plan from two years ago, that he calls a failure. >> that's actually not accurate, either. my plan allowed people over 55 to sign up for medicare, which was the beginning of a public option. >> bringing it back to the public and how they're feeling about this, i'm wondering how much of this is bail out and

spending fatigue. a lot of people are thinking a whole lot of money has been thrown at the economy, and maybe we're not feeling any better off in our own personal situation, and so therefore they're skeptical about whether more money being thrown at health care reform is going to make them feel better off, as well. >> i think as a great point. because we spent $800 billion on the stimulus, and right now unemployment is higher, and added to the huge deficit. so now you're proposing a plan that could make the deficit even bigger, and people do have that fatigue. i think that's a great point. >> i would agree with that. i think people are worried about the spending. my argument is that u, you know, your previous guests on the show were talking about the economy. of i'm a w guy, i think we had a bounce and we're going back down in the market. but i do think the underpinnings look a lot better than they did before the stimulus was passed. the other thing about wasting/spending money, if you pass this bill without a public option, you're essentially dumping $60,000 a year into the

health care industry, which is an incredibly wasteful industry. >> we're out of time, but howard dean, the fact that the public is not behind this, does that not weigh on you? is. >> no. >> the concern that the public doesn't seem to want this right now, does that not factor into your thought on whether or not this should happen? >> you're talking about a 5 to 8% margin, and as bill clinton who i still think is the best political mind in america said the other day, once the president signs the bill, the numbers are going to change dramatically. this always happens. there was a lot of clarity brought over the past week and i think we're going to get a decent bill. >> dean is worried about that w. they better get it passed out, because fewer democrats after 2010. >> maybe not as few if we pass it. >> great to have you on the show. thanks for your time. >> coming up next, an exclusive survey on whether americans will spend or whether they're going to save this holiday season. the chairman and president of ing direct usa is going to join me here live on a first on cnbc interview to discuss. >> looking forward to it.

of plus, google marks its five-year anniversary of the publicly traded company. how the search giant has grown so fast and furiously. and is it still a good buy? find out, coming up on "the call." when people say, hey mike, why ford, why now? i say brace yourself. that gas guzzler in your driveway, just might be, a clunker. but don't panic, it could be a good thing. your ford and lincoln mercury dealers are cash for clunkers specialists. they'll recycle your ride, and get you a big fat juicy rebate from uncle sam. you can get all the details,

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welcome back to "the call," i'm hampton pearson live in washington, with hhs and homeland security have just wrapped up a briefing, telling businesses and employers to start planning now for an active flu season. when it comes to swine flu, no predictability as to in and out breaks, but that employers and businesses should anticipate high absenteeism in the work force. the advice, if employees exhibit flu-like symptoms, they should not come to work. if they display those symptoms during the day, go home. if the employee stays home, it's best for co-workers' productivity and the company. other basics, washing hands, covering your mouth when you sneeze. flexible policies, expecting getting rid of nonpunitive note from the doctor requirements. planning operations with a defleeted work force, turning to things like tele commuting, and reducing face-to-face meetings and eliminating nonessential

travel. from kathleen sebelius, secretary for hhs, before a vaccine is available, it's important for target populations to get seasonal flu shots now. those target populations include pregnant women, adults, under age 65 with underlying health conditions like asthma and respiratory ailments, and 16 to 24 years old who are in the work force. health care workers are also a target population. parents of guardians or infants under six months of age also. and while there is work going forward on an effective h1n1 vaccine, also homeland security secretary janet that poll tanno emphasizing the workplace alternative plan is key for key infrastructure like the oil and gas system. trish? >> okay, hampton pearson, thank you so much. we do want to point out the secretaries locke and sebelius will be on "power lunch" this afternoon. so stay tuned for that. meanti meantime, iing, big question,

will the consumer spend this year, or save for better times? joining me in a first on cnbc interview to discuss is connie kuhlman president. good to see you. >> good to be here. of. >> what's the answer? >> the answer is, americans are going to be spending less. it looks like about $300 this year, and on average, that's down from previous years. the expectation is that they're just not going to spend as much, especially on conspicuous kinds of goods, right? nothing kind of fancy, right? no luxury kind of items. >> it's interesting, because we have this debate almost every day here on this program. you know, where exactly does the consumer stabbed nd in all of t and there have been a lot of bulls out there that say that things are getting better, and the american consumer has a psyche that wants to be moving forward. that is, in fact -- we just had a guest on who was saying the american consumer is exuberant, and said they bought lots of underwear in the first quarter, but they're going to buy lots of fancy tvs in the second quarter.

so it was necessities and then luxuries. and you're saying when you go out there and talk to these consumer individually, they're telling you the exact opposite. >> exact opposite. we focused on main street america, which is a big part of this country, and i think what's happening is that americans are basically saying, wait a minute, maybe there's some lessons to be learned here. and when oil prices went up, we basically changed our attitude about gas prices and transportation. this recession has been so tough, and it's eroded not only our 401(k) and our savings, but it's basically really shown that we're maybe flat, our mae paychecks aren't going to go up as fast, not going to get as much unemployment as in the past and so basically saying maybe we should rethink this and rebalance our values about saving more, spending less. the consumer is not retreating. we're not losing all of our american optimism. on the other hand, i think we're getting an idea that we've got to balance it out, and it's about the quality of life. >> more conservatives in there. let's show the viewer, i think we have got some nice charts that we can show them, per your

survey, that indicate just exactly what people -- well, this is holiday spending 2009. >> right. >> so we also have another one that compares 2008 versus 2009. and you see the difference there. >> right. >> you know, there certainly is a drop. now, i want to go back to -- you look at this time last year, going into holiday shopping season. >> yeah. >> and oil prices were an issue. >> right. >> and now they're not so bad. people have -- you know, essentially gotten a tax -- a tax reduction as a result of those lower oil prices. so why don't they spend that this season? >> because i think they're much of afraid about hearing people getting over the edge, right? getting too far extended on credit cards or house payments or car payments, right? and they know that debt is actually not a great thing to live with and go to sleep with every night. so if you think about it, look, eight out of ten americans are basically saying, you know, i'm probably going to spend a little less. seven out of ten americans are saying i would rather have money in the bank than spend too much. so the idea here for us is that while the financial markets are

creating confidence and confidence helps the economy and helps optimism, people are basically saying, you shouldn't overdo it and pull back a little bit. >> what does this mean for earnings? what does it mean for the stock market, what does it mean for the economy as a whole? >> you know what, this is the first time in a long time the whole country has gone back 10%. look at retailers, target, walmart, everybody. everybody is pulling back 10%. the whole country is pulling 10% back. values are being pulled by 10%. earnings will be there, multiples, but we're looking for a much slower recovery, right? it's not going to be a big booming out again, and the reason i say this when you talk to consumers on main street, they're saying, wait a minute, i care about my children, i care about their education, i'm worried about my health care, i know the country is dealing with big issues, but we as a family have to think about those issues, too and have to be more conservati conservative. of so we're cutting out some of the extra trips, some of the extra luxuries. >> rather be safe. >> rather be safe than sorry.

>> okay. arkani kuhlman, great to see you. fascinating news. thanks for coming to the nyse. >> great to be here. >> happy anniversary google. shares climbed nearly 350% sense its first day of trade five years ago today. so is it worth buying now? we're going to try and find out, next. plus, auto dealerships across the nation are saying show me the money. details on why they're not happy with the cash for clunkers program is all coming up on "the call." some people buy a car based on the deal they get. others by the car of their dreams. during the lexus golden opportunity sales event, you can do both. special lease offers now available on the 2009 es 350. diarrhea, constipation, gas, bloating. that's me! can i tell you what a difference phillips' colon health has made?

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okay. welcome back. cbs news.com is reporting that "60 minutes" producer and creator don hewitt has died at the age of 86. hewitt began at cbs news in 1948, created "60 minutes." 20 years later, it is currently the longest-running prime time show, and as a former employer

of cbs news, i can tell you he was a very gift and had kind man. >> five year's anniversary of google's ipo, priced at 85 bucks a share, and seen quite a run as you can by the five-year stock. the stock is currently trading down today by about 1%, but it has gained about 350% since its ipo. jim goldman is outside google headquarters in this mountain view, california with more. hi, jim. >> mandy, good morning to you. indeed, if the summer of love was 1967, here in this country, then the summer of love in 2004 was certainly silicon valley's version of it, just a few short years ago. five years ago today, that was the scene at the nasdaq, maybe the most anticipated initial public offering in silicon vall valley's illustrious history. that took place back then, the unusual dutch auction amid a

flurry of investor interest in within of the most profitable companies this country has ever seen. closing just above $108. since then, despite a few hiccups, there is staggering growth to the tune of 350%. ceo eric schmidt telling cnbc recently that advertising is still the key to this company's success. >> our whole theory about advertising is that advertising is not targeting, just a random ad you walk by. not relevant to you. we want every ad to be personal and direct the to you and has some value to you. >> indulge me for a second here and look at some of these numbers. of google's market cap reached an all-time high of $226 billion back on december 7th, 2007. about $130 billion or so today. in 2004, just about 3,000 workers. today just shy of 20,000.

and the thousand bucks invested in google back then worth about $4,200. it's not all rosy for google now that microsoft has forged the partnership with yahoo and the search engine continues to nibble away at google's market share. this company is indeed facing stiffer competition. eric schmidt resigned from apple's board as the two companies become more direct competitors. that's very telling, google's entry into the smart phone with its android and chrome operating systems. these are also very, very big trends. forget about what's going to drive this company over the next five years. all of this new competition and these new businesses, this is going to drive google for the next five months. man mandy. >> tim, thanks for that. of now you know all about google's run up and the background. question is now, is it worth buying? let's ask keith perry, senior tech analyst at sbr and michael far. gentlemen, thank you for your time. >> michael, you didn't buy the ipo, because you thought it

looked expensive then at $85. so the question is, number one, are you buying it now. and number two, are you hitting yourself? >> i hated myself for so long. i mean -- now, you've got to understand, i hate myself for a whole list of reasons, you know. but one of them certainly was not owning google as it went through the roof. when i looked at the pro forma numbers and the way they were going to price it, it looked too expensive. once we saw real numbers, it didn't look that expensive. of and then i waited for it to reach -- i have a very clear discipli discipline, and it was just too expensive for years. i did buy it on the pullback in march. i paid about 16 times earnings, $331 a share back in march. and i was very happy for the opportunity to finally be able to buy it. of i probably wouldn't be buying it aggressively at these levels, 23 times earnings. but it's still a great company. >> okay. so perhaps you wouldn't be buying or selling it either. health, why don't you come in -- >> oh, no, not going to sell it. >> i see you have a price target of $535 out in front.

so you still think this has got some legs. >> we certainly do. and i think looking at it at 535, that is the short term for google. at 20 times next year with the kind of growth we still have in online advertising, and even within just the core search business as google continues to march towards what essentially is a natural monopoly n, there is a lot of left growth. >> you're not worried about some of these new competitors? >> you know, certainly microsoft has put themselves in a better position than they were in before. but if you look at what al go rhythmic search as we know it is, it is essentially a natural monopoly business. when someone gets to the kind of 6 6070% marked share that google has in the u.s. and worldwide, it's going to be incredibly difficult if not impossible to break that. >> okay. so potentially world dominance for a little longer. thank you so much for your thoughts on the topic. trish? >> we take a quick break and then why are auto dealers across the nation saying "show me the

money?" phil lebeau has the story. hey, phil. >> trish, they made the deal and now they're hoping they get their money as quickly as possible from the federal government. the down side, if there is a down side to cash for clunkers from the dealers' perspective when "the call" returns of.

the dow has now moved into positive territory, up about 12 points right now. so like i said, the day is young. consumers are flocking to dealerships to get their cash

for clunkers rebates, dealers are complaining they're not getting rebill yourselfed fast enough from the government. this could be a problem for these guys if they don't get the money. >> it's eventually a waiting game, and they'll eventually get the money. but here's the deal. when you make these deals at the dealership, the 4,500 doesn't go to you when you're buying the car. it ultimately goes to the dealer that takes it off the price of what you're trading in had. much if it you talk to traders around the country, they are not getting reimbursed by the government. at least not yet. many complaining. cnbc's survey, a random survey of dealers across the country found none had received their clunker rebates of roughly $4,000 per deal. $1.7 clunker deals have been submitted to washington. and for your larger dealership chain it means they are waiting on millions of dollars. >> we're probably owed about $45 million at this point. but i'm a bit sanguine about it. you know, to me it's a little

bit like you throw a drowning man a life preserver and you complain about the color of the life preserver. >> so what's the problem? we called the department of transportation and said it is committing enormous resources and working overtime to process the overwhelming volume of applications both quickly and responsibly while getting rebates paid for complete and valid deals. the key words there, "valid deals." in other words, they want to make sure that the vehicles that are clunkers that are getting traded in, that they do get scrapped and are not recycled. the government insuring that to avoid fraud. of dealers must guarantee the clunker engines have been disabled, by the way, in order for that payment to go through. you take a look at the top vehicles that have gone through the cash for clunkers program, toyota has replaced general motors in terms of overall sales. the most vehicles have gone to toyota, gm second followed by ford, honda and chrysler. trish and mandy, almost everybody says, listen, you're eventually going to get this money. but when you have a dealership

waiting for millions of dollars that it is committed to, that it is waiting on, it starts to become a problem. and that's why we're hearing from dealers across the country. mandy? >> i can imagine. phil, thanks very much for that report. the annual list of 100 fastest-growing companies in the world is out. and cnbc has teamed up with the periodical to feature some of the most innovative names on the list. cnbc managing editor tyler matheson co hosts the fastest growing company of 2009, and he is here now with a preview. >> let's give you a preview, mandy. an hour or so we told you about deckers outdoor. last year, arena resources topped the list of fastest-growing companies, and this year it has slipped to number eight. still, the company has managed to chart incredible growth by digging for black gold where it's larger colleagues won't. naturally, nobody can control the price of oil or gas. but arena can control where it hunts for it. >> these are proposed drilling

locations. various colors. >> reporter: the company started in the 1980s in oklahoma, focusing on secondary recovery, or behind-pipe potential. >> arena was a company that was going to start off for near-term to acquire properties that were already producing, but really hadn't been exploited to the potential. >> reporter: arena's content to leave the $100 million north slope arctic and deep water gulf operations to the deep-pocketed majors. of instead, it concentrates on this. the furman nashco development. >> and the stock went up 800%. tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern, the fastest-growing companies of 2009 much these are companies that have grown and may make you money if you put money in them. >> well, they have to want to learn, don't they? >> yeah. 9:00 tonight. >> 9:00 tonight, we are watching and learning. thank you, tyler. we'll be right back for "the last call" on consumer spending

and economic recovery.

you know, there will be plenty of holiday shopping surveys coming out in the months

ahead, but interesting, ing direct out with its survey today showing the consumer is going to spend $300 less so that weakness that people are concerned about and the consumer clearly hasn't gone away. mandy, great to have you here. you're hear here all week. >> i am. >> thanks for watching, everyone. i'm trish regan. >> and i'm mandy drury. "power lunch" is coming up next. >> and just in time, the stock market turns higher as "power lunch" is come on the air here. >> it should be. >> welcome back. >> thank you very much. >> all back together again. if we could only figure out whatever happened to dennis kneale, we would really have something there. i'm bill griffith. stocks are rebounding. concern about china's ability to refuel a global recovery, the chinese market, the shanghai index is now officially in bear market territory, down 20% from its early august peaks. we'll have a look at what that means for your portfolio, coming

up. >> and i'm sue herrera, warren buffett out with op-ed pieces saying we need to deal with u.s. debt. can this economy support a long-term rally? >> i'm michelle cabrusso-cabrera, google went public five years ago today. since then, shares have surged more than 330%, so where is the next google? we're going to go searching for the next hot ipo. and here is what else is on the menu. >> i'm mary thompson at global headquarters. in a settlement the irs claims brings dramatic change to the world of off shore banking, ubs hands over 4,450 client account names to the u.s. government as the irs steps up its efforts to combat tax evasion. >> i'm diana olick. commercial real estate brokerage activity falls to its lowest level in 15 years, and as vacancies rise and represents fall, a big player in d.c. office defaults, it's just another in a growing line of trouble for commercial real estate and