bernanke's comments, which we're going to talk about shortly, as well as these existing home sales numbers. i want to bring in bob pisani, tracking all of the market action as always. existing home sales, moving things along. >> yeah, of course, mr. bernanke was helpful, talking about the economy on the verge of recovery, but i was quite encouraged by the existing home sales numbers. four straight months now, a move up. we haven't seen that in a while, and that's a clear sign that there is some kind of recovery. here is the bad news i wasn't happy to see. the inventory unchanged and the reason that happened, trish, is because more homes were for sale. sellers put their homes on the market in higher numbers because they thought things were getting better. now, a couple headwinds we've got here. number one, remember that first time tax credit? it's going to expire november 30th at $8,000. that means you have to settle november 30th. that means they probably have to get the contract signed by the end of september, and higher mortgage rates. remember, trish, six months ago, 4.75. >> amazing, yeah. >> now 5.4%. >> a little rush now between now

and november. >> so will they extend that, do what they did for the cash for clunkers? maybe they'll extend it, but as of now, no statement about that. you have to assume they're not going to. >> bob, i mentioned that there had been so much fear in a way this week that the market had gotten ahead of itself. much we're seeing that reverse today, but tell me, what are the stocks, what are the sectors that are really seeing the most? >> it's interesting, monday when the market was down so much, it was the health care stocks that were moving, but they have gone into the background in the last four days, it's been the cyclical stocks, so new highs for the year. whirlpool has been doing great, caterpillar doing great, all of the classic cyclical names on the up side. honeywell, also sitting near the high for the year. >> and no jeans today. we have every trader on the floor here in jeans. >> benton looking good here. >> but you decided -- now, i'm pregnant, so i have a reason for foregoing the jeans today. >> i have no excuse. >> you have no excuse. >> no, i'm definitely not pregnant. sorry about that. >> have a good weekend, bob.

good to see you. uptown now to scott wapner for more. >> thanks, trish, so much. a good morning for technology stocks, the nasdaq the highs of the session 1 1/3%, and led by apple as thomas why zel raises estimates there, they talked with management, following a meeting, competence in the company's long-term outlook. look at what other large cap technology shares are doing today, because it's a similar story from a stock perspective, trading to the up side. google ahead by 1%, and many of the other big names, ebay, for example, to the up side, research in motion and microsoft and dell all in positive territory. into it, though, wow, down 7%, downgraded over at credit swiss. they gave a really tepid outlook for 2010, and the stock is getting punished as a result of that. starbucks shares ahead by 2%, they're raising coffee prices on some of their drinks by as much as 30 cents, cutting the prices on some other of the easier to make drinks there, as you look at this chart of starbucks, one year, up 25%. take a look at solar stocks, though, because most are getting

hammered. first solar, 3.5% selloff. evergreen, sunpower weak. energy conversion weak. skref reese has lowered the price targets on all of these stocks, downgraded them as well. big pricing issues. supply and demand issues, as well. from the solar companies. and mandy, it is definitely taking a toll on those solar names today. back to you. >> sure looks like it. no sunshine out for them. fed chief ben bernanke about an hour ago in jackson hole, wyoming says we are emorninging from a global economic recession. steve liesman joins us live with all of the details. hey. >> hey, mandy. yeah, the fed chairman giving some guardedly optimistic comments on the economy. let's do the optimistic ones first and then the guarded ones. he says there are good prospects of the term -- and economic activity leveling out. the fears of a financial collapse have receded and markets are functioning more normally now. but strains remain. let's talk about some of the

strains. financial institutions face significant added losses. households continue to have trouble accessing credit. and the recovery is likely to be slow at first, and the result of that, and so you're going to have unemployment going to decline only gradually. we talked last night in our special report here with martin feldsteen, and he says the economy is growing right now, but worries about 2010. >> the big question is, what happens next? what do we see in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of next year, and there is a real danger that it runs out of steam. >> that's really a big issue right here. and the question, when you think about bernanke's guardedly optimistic, what that means for policy, mike san toe says it means no change at all, keeping rates low for an extended period would remain in place for some ti time. back to trish, or back to -- >> i'm going to pick it up from there, thanks a lot, steve. of. >> mandy, sorry about that.

>> no problem. you can't really see out there in the mountains. this day, let's talk more about the word coming out of a deep global recession and what, of course, it means for policy. joining us to discuss is todd collins, vice president at mf global and cnbc's rick santelli, steve saying with us. todd, let me get to you first. what did you think about bernanke's comments? do you agree? >> yes, i do agree. i think we are emerging from this global recession, but i also take heed to his warnings that we are not out of the woods yet, and we still have several issues to deal with, first of all being the liquidity measures that the fed has put in place, as well as the global quantitative easing policy from the central banks here, the u.k. and over in europe. so i think it's a positive first step, but we're not out of the woods yet. >> not out of the woods yet, which obviously means we're not talking about a rate hike any time soon, but to throw it forward, how much of a disconnect is there between when the market thinks we're going to get that first rate hike and when you think we should get that first rate hike? >> well, right now, the markets

is pricing in the possibility of a rate hike sometime by middle of 2010. and we're talking about maybe up to 1%. if we look forward beyond that, i think we need to see two things happen. we need to see unemployment come down, we need to see inflation go up for the fed to really have a need to raise rates. and right now, both of those things are working against a rate hike. so i really think moving forward that we need to consider employment gains over a sustained period, say quarters, and not just months. and inflation getting above that 2% thresh hold that the fed has always said is their level. remember, a little bit of inflation is okay. it's just we don't want that super hyper inflation that people are afraid of when the fed unloads its balance sheet. >> certainly not. rick santelli, i know you have been critical of the fed for not having a very clearly defined exit strategy. when would you like to see the fed start raising rates, and also, do you believe mr. bernanke is right when he says this economy is on the mend? >> i think it's on the mend. and i think most of what he

said, many would agree with. i don't think you're going to see a rate hike any time soon. i don't think the market is telling you there is a rate hike. it's just a trade, where traders by near-term contracts that follow fed funds and sell the deferred. and they keep rolling that trade through time. i'll tell you, i -- neal barofsky, the inspector general, has said, we are guaranteeing or cosigning over $23 trillion. citibank, alone, the feds guaranteeding over $300 billion in assets, like distressed securities. i think the conversation of high-fiving the jobs done or thinking they're going to remove any liquidity any time soon is absolute nonsense. >> steve, you're coming on this. the timing is everything, isn't it? because if you get the timing wrong, you could seriously be blamed for all of history. this could be your legacy that you got it wrong. you might have fixed things up in the first place, but if you can't get out of the situation, you can't get the exit strategy right, that's what you're remembered for.

do you think they could wait too long before they start hiking, taking away some of the stimulus, rather than getting it wrong? >> first of all, not my legacy, mandy. i think you mean bernanke's legacy. >> absolutely. >> the $23 million figure that rick mentioned has been widely discredited by many sources. >> co-signing. and you could add the numbers up, steve. they add up. >> they don't add up, rick. you haven't looked at it. >> it's not necessarily -- it's guaranteeses. they are guarantees. >> it's not. it's not. there is double counting in there, rick. and even the -- >> submit me a memo as to the numbers you disagree with, and we'll go over it. >> no, why don't you send me a memo, rick. >> okay, guys. of come on. what were you going to say, steve? >> very quickly, the idea that they are going to be a little bit later than you might expect, because they want to make sure that the -- >> okay. so what is later? >> before they turn around. >> what is later? i mean, todd was saying sometime

in mid 2010. >> if the market thinks the -- later on in 2010 would be the time. but there is a whole bunch of things that will happen, that have already really begun to happen if you have been sort of watching what the the fed is saying. for example, their decision i think it was last week, to not include private label mortgage-backed security in the talf is actually part of a tightening process. they did not widen the net on the talf, okay? so then they're going to bring that, and you'll see a whole bunch of things start to run off and ease down the balance sheet before you even see a fed funds hike. >> todd, what does this mean for investors? >> well, i think right now you're going to see risk as a main focus here. over the last several months, we have seen the stock market rally quite aggressively. we have seen bond yields creep higher, although they're still historically on the lows, and i think that we have to look at the bigger picture here, that commercial real estate, still -- fed continuing to buy mortgages, the liquidity measures are still in place, and they're backstopping, as rick said, a

great deal of investments out there. we need to be careful, and i think you're going to see the risk averse trade continue to highlight what we're seeing, and that's going to continue to keep the yield curve steep until we see the jobs improve, and we see the economy pick up. and it's going to take some time. >> gentlemen, thanks very much for your time. when we come back, crude oil topping a 2009 high. energy, plus get a check one hurricane bill storm track, mandy. >> yeah, weather-watching, as well, today. and more americans are buying homes, capitalizing on low interest rates. but is it really the time to buy, or perhaps renting might be the better option. we'll discuss those two, coming up only on "the call." (announcer) this is nine generations of the world's most revered luxury sedan. this is a history of over 50,000 crash-tested cars... this is the world record for longevity and endurance.

and one of the most technologically advanced automobiles on the planet. this is the 9th generation e-class. this is mercedes-benz.

everything priced in dollars continues to reinflate. and we know oil is priced in those dollars. of also on the bull thesis here today, there is a sense that perhaps the economy's improvement will continue to help reinflate things. in europe overnight, we got some positive news as far as business sentiment is concerned. that helped the euro higher, as well as the overall markets there, so that's an important component of all of this, as well. and lastly, you have some markets here, which the dow is higher, and that continues to be the factor that the dow and oil, they continue to trade in tan m tandem, and a lot of traders say from a technical perspective, there is reason to believe prices could go higher. dennis ghertiman said we could see prices go on the natural gas front and we're not seeing prices reinflate. of and the spread between oil and natural gas is really at its

highest level that we have ever seen in history, meaning oil prices, natural gas ratio is at its highest rate ever, and mandy, what's interesting about that is there is a supply glut for natural gas, a much more u.s. centric story there, not priced in dollars, so it comes down to our demand here. and what people would say about that demand is because of the disparity in price, if they were already going to switch, that is, if someone was going to switch between oil and natural gas, they've already done it, because the natural gas prices have been so cheap relative to oil prices for so long now, they've already made that switch, so a lot of people don't see that demand coming back any time soon. >> thanks for that, rebecca jarvis. coming up next, a huge jump in existing home sales as more americans look to capitalize on falling home prices. so is now the time to buy, or is perhaps renting the better option right now? find out next. >> interesting question. and the feds' power and maintaining political independence.

glen hubbard says they are essential to avoid economic collapse. he'll join us in a first on cnbc interview live from jackson hole, next. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i want everything right where i can find it. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 anything that makes trading easier. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i want to be right in the middle of the action-- tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you know-- i have to see what's going on. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and when i pull the trigger... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...i've got to get the best price out there. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 (announcer) try the new schwab.com tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 for yourself. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-888-4schwab tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 or visit schwab.com/trader today. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 'course a trade doesn't always work out my way.

tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 but when it does... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...man... do i love that feeling. people think that honda is always the most fuel efficient choice. well, this chevy cobalt xfe has better highway mileage than a comparable honda civic. this chevy traverse has better mileage than honda pilot. the all-new chevy equinox has better mileage than honda cr-v. and chevy malibu has better mileage than accord. however, honda does make something that we just can't compete with. it's self-propelled. there's never been more reasons to look at chevy. but i've still got room for the internet. with my new netbook from at&t. with its built-in 3g network, it's fast and small, so it goes places other laptops can't. i'm bill kurtis, and wherever i go, i've got plenty of room for the internet. and the nation's fastest 3g network. gun it, mick. (announcer) sign up today and get a netbook

for $199.99 after mail-in rebate. with built-in access to the nation's fastest 3g network. only from at&t. ♪ yes, you're lovely... ♪ what do you think? hey, why don't we use our points from chase sapphire and take a break? we can't. sure, we can. the points don't expire... ♪ there is nothing for me... ♪ there's no travel restrictions... we could leave tomorrow. we can't use them for a vacation. you can use the points for just about anything. i know... ♪ the way you look tonight ♪ chase what matters. get your new chase sapphire card at chase.com/sapphire. exactly come back, financials all moving higher. take a look at the green on your

screen, jpmorgan, goldman sachs, wells fargo and citi all seeing gains, trading higher right now, as well. up 15. mandy. >> good way to end a friday. okay, existing home sales posting their largest monthly increase in ten years. this as first time buyers rush to take advantage of a tax credit that expires in the fall. cnbc's diana olick with the details. of high diana. >> foreclosures accounting for more than one-third of home sales, all activity is on the low end. take a look. existing home sales, jumped up to 5.4 million annualized units inial. up 5%. that's the highest since august of 2007. and the biggest monthly jump up since the realtors started tracking in 1999. >> this is a very broad-based recovery. of we have seen a rise in sales in the northeast, the west region remains very strong.

the florida market continuing strong, buying activities. so very broad spaced recovery of home buyers coming in and jumping into the market. >> but, again, prices are driving sales. prices down across all regions, 15.1% nationally, but far worse out west, down 28%, where foreclosure sales dominate the market and bargain hunters and investors are coming back. you can see it in the way those buyers are paying for their homes. >> despite the historically low mortgage rates, we are seeing increasing number of buyers by passing the mortgages all together, going all cash, it could be due to the appraisal issue, they don't want to be bothered with the appraisal issue. and also, home values have fallen so much, people are saying, well, i have some cash reserved, why not go ahead and buy all at once without any murder burden. >> but the they're concerned that the tax credit at the end of november could throw water on this hot rally. of 30% of all buyers in july

were first time home buyers. of come back at "power lunch," because we break down sales. in the meantime, go to the blog at cnbc.com. much. >> we'll do that. what better time to ask, should you be buying now or renting a home? let's ask spencer rascot of zilla.com. you say it is a great time to buy right now. even though you think we won't get the bottom in the housing market until next year. >> yeah. you know, i mean, first of all inventory levels are way up, so more buyers to choose from, and prices are way down. so the typical home in america has declined about 20% from its 2006 peak, so a good back drop overall to think about buying a home. but if three things meet your situation, then it's a good time to buy. of first of all, if you're not burdened with selling your current home. second, if you can get financing. mortgage rates are low, but it's hard to actually close a loan because of the appraisal issue

question talked about. and number three, if you're going to be in your home that you're interested in buying for five to seven years. think about this purchase as a lifestyle decision rather than a short-term investment and that's probably because we're probably not at the bottom yet. >> excellent point. in the current market where we might not be at the bottom of the market, maybe it's better to rent, because i would imagine that rent would start picking up before sales do, in any case maybe if you are going into this as an investment, just looking at it as renting a place. of. >> i think it's a great time to scout the properties that you're really interested in buying and rent for the meantime. homeownership -- they say homeownership is the american dream, but i think that's as false a claim as santa claus and valentine's day for chocolates. it's not for everybody. and the latest crisis -- the credit crisis was the evidence of that. >> yeah, amir, what about the cost of capital? the fact that you could be putting your money into something else? look at the stock market. it's up, you know, almost 50% since march.

what if you had put your money into the market as opposed to -- >> in the last 15 years, real estate became a really popular investment. you know, it came back. and i believe that fervor is going to come back. real estate is still a very sound investment, a great place to park your money. >> but it's sound and not necessarily going to be as exuberant as it was. >> well, talk to the people who bought in 2003 and sold before the bust. they would probably disagree with you. but you're right. and that, you know, historically, real estate is supposed to go up 4 to 6%, where, you know, during the boom, it was going up 30, 40, in some cases 60%. of. >> spencer, so it's -- >> i think it's dangerous to try to time the bottom as a buyer. i mean, it's impossible for market experts to time the bottom and more impossible for individual buyers. >> yeah, but what i think people forget, spencer is you can lose money. in other words, yeah, five to seven years. you hope things are better five to seven years from now, and the real estate market has improved, but the reality is, you can lose

money just as easily as you can make money. >> absolutely. absolutely. so, you know, you need to be buying this home because you love it. don't buy it solely as an investment. think about it as a place to rest your head at night, and, you know, if you make money then all the better. but this is an attractive market environment in terms of amount of inventory, accessibility of low mortgage rates, and the willingness of sellers to give you a great deal. >> i mean, speaking of great deals, it's horrible, obviously, to take advantage of other people's distress, but when you consider how many people are in stressful situations, perhaps even foreclosure, do you think prospective buyers should not be afraid to low-ball, essentially try and undercut what is being advertised? is. >> absolutely. the biggest piece of advice i would give to a buyer is make an offer. you still have a lot of people, particularly nonforeclosure sellers who are towing the line on price. they paid $600,000 for their home three years ago, and they're asking $610 because they just can't bring themselves to go below what they paid for it.

they'll probably take 550, 525. can't lower the listing price to that level. >> another thing interesting to note the real wave of foreclosures hasn't really hit the market yet. most of the foreclosures that are coming in -- 45% of the foreclosures coming from california, nevada, arizona and new mexico, the wave of foreclosures haven't hit yet. miami foreclosures, they have not hit yet and that's going to be serious. >> before we go, amir, you really haven't answered the questioned here, is it better to buy or rent right now? >> look, if my mother came to me and said she wanted to buy tomorrow, i would tell her, no you better rent right now, prices can still adjust. and they're going to adjust. and if she says, what about the $8,000 tax break, i would say, well, consider this, are prices going to drop $8,000 in six months, you know, compared to what you buy right now and i believe they will. >> gentlemen, thank you very much for your discussion. >> thank you. interesting stuff. okay. coming up, the feds' independence being called into question. the dean of columbia business

school, glen hubbard is up next to discuss why. >> and craft brewers in america. details on why the market of boutique beer is booming. that's all coming up, only on "the call. some people buy a car based on the deal they get. others by the car of their dreams. during the lexus golden opportunity sales event, you can do both. special lease offers now available on the 2009 is 250.

welcome back to "the call," everyone, i'm trish regan. up 140 on the dow on this friday, a couple things going on, both ben bernanke saying positive things about the economy, as well as existing home sales numbers. all fueling this rally up 16 on

the s&p, a lot of the financials driving this sw as well. seeing some up side, 1.3% as the gain on the nasdaq. now, we have been reporting, financial and policy makers from around the world are meeting in jackson hole, wyoming to discuss how to prevent another global economic crisis. glen had you been baubbard dean business school wrote that the fed's independence is at risk. welcome to the show. wonderful to see you. >> good morning, thanks. >> so how is the fed's independence truly at risk right now? >> well, first, the fed has had to take bold interventions in the financial crisis. no one questions that. but by taking on insufficiently collateralized assets, they're at risk. and they run the risk of having to go to the treasury too often. we need to get the risky assets off the balance sheets and on to the treasury. >> how do you do at that at a time when ear are we're still in

a very precarious position? is. >> the real question is the dodgy assets that the fed has had to get involved with. of there is no question, the right answer, would it have been to have the treasury do that. the obama administration i think goes the wrong way by having the treasury sign off on all emergency actions. the really point is getting the risk transferred to the treasury. >> mr. hubbard how has it materially hampered the motive of the fed which is to conduct monetary policy? >> well, by having to become more dependent on the treasury, both in consultation and permission and eventually if the fed loses money for a capital transfer, compromises the independence of monetary policy. and that should be the number one thing the fed tries to protect. >> is it fair to say, the fed can't go bankrupt, right? it basically transfers the liability over to the u.s. taxpayer? >> well, remember, the u.s. taxpayer is everything. both the fed and the treasury are the tp taxpayer. the question is focus, and the

fed needs to focus on monetary policy. and in order to be independent in monetary policy, it needs to be out from under the treasury's bum. >> mr. hubbard, do you think ben bernanke is doing a good job? do you think that has navigate ed crisis well, or do you think there is room for improvement? >> well, i think there is no question that the fed under chairman bernanke's leadership has taken very bold steps that have lessened impact of the crisis. >> do you think he'll get another turn? do you think he'll get reappointed next year? >> there is only one person whose opinion counts on that, and that is president obama. i would say that ben certainly deserves reappointment. >> talking of president obama, obviously there is some financial regulation reform on the table right now. and amongst those proposals, there is obviously to give the fed essentially the mission control spot. how much do you think that is also jeopardizing further the independence of the fed? >> i think it's a mistake to give all of that to the fed, and i don't say that because i don't

think the fed's up to it. it is. but it runs again the political risk that would compromise the fed's independence. the committee on capital markets regulation that i co chair had recommended a large umbrella regulator to stand side by side with the fed, and i still think that's a much better idea. >> mr. hubbard, when do you anticipate a rise in interest rates? we were debating it earlier on the show. some people are saying maybe by spring. what do you think? >> i think that would be aggressive. a rise in interest rates will occur when the economy's financial normalization is well under way. that's beginning, but i would hardly describe it as well under way. >> i think mandy and i have t exact same question. >> it's all yours, trish. >> when is it going to normalize? when, in fact, will we be out of this tough economic environment? >> i think we will see financial conditions beginning to normalalize much more by next spring. whether the fed begins hiking the funds rate at that point is anybody's guess.

the first statement the fed might make is more reining in overall the size of its balance sheet. >> can i ask you how you think the u.s. dollar stands in all of this? because it's not uncommon to hair these days we're in for a real currency crisis. much obviously the u.s. dollar is weakening, but i'm talking about a serious plunge in the value of the u.s. dollar. >> i think it's difficult to see that, because after all, if you get out of one currency, you must get into another. and so the question is, given long-run trends for productivity growth and inflation, which currency would you prefer, i think the answer is still the dollar. so weakness, yes. crisis no. >> even with the massive expansion of the fed's balance sheet, even with the massively mounting budget deficit? >> it creates a risk, and the risk, in order to be minimized, requires the fed to begin normalizing its balance sheet. i think that will happen beginning next year. a bigger question to me is less the fed, but will the fiscal

authority start to rein in the budget deficit? if i were to circle a risks, it would be. >> the white house has just come out and said that it appears the housing market is bottoming out a bit. we have an alert at the bottom of the cnbc screen. what do you think about that? is that, in fact, true? we just had a guest on moments ago who said there's quite a ways to go in the housing market that we're going to see continued foreclosures over the next six months to the next year. what is your take? >> well, i think it's a mixed bag. i think we will see more foreclosures that are linked to weakness in the job market. house prices are beginning to firm, and probably don't have much farther to fall, at least on a national basis. in that sense, there is more stability. but this is stability from a still quite weak base. i wouldn't declare victory yet. >> before we let you go, i also want to ask you about the unemployment rate now at 9.4%. we know housing, of course, and unemployment are very closely linked. unemployment really being the problem here with the entire

consumer base of this economy. when might that start to reverse itself? >> well, employment lags the real economy, so even if gdp growth begins to turn later in the year, which i believe it will, the job market will lag a bit until the economy grows to potential. so i would count on the unemployment rate rising before it falls substantially. >> mr. hubbard, a real pleasure to have you on the show. more on the global economic recovery with german economic president weber. of. >> and steve liesman. forget about cheap beer. seems american consumers, they want none other than the good stuff, despite these tough economic times. we have details on booming boutique beer. the industry, straight ahead, only on "the call."

okay, welcome back, everyone. check out shares of smucker's here. jm shucker, sjm, the company known for its jam posting strong

quarterly profits. helped by strong results at its foal engineers coffee business. of as a result, said full-year profits come in at the higher end of this outlook. and stocks trading up, 4%. some investors like it. mandy. >> here is an interesting factoid for you, this friday, and, of course, friday means perhaps we're counting down to beverage consumption. one beverage group that is benefitting from the recession is craft beers or boutique beers as we know them in australia. it seems patrons are more willing to pay a little extra for those premium pierce beers as well as wines and cocktails. we have the director the brewers' association, and local craft beer bar owner, justin phillips who runs the beer table in brooklyn. thank you for joining us today. paul, let me start with you. i'm really interested to know why craft beers or boutique beers and their brewers are growing in this current economy, when essentially they have a

higher pricing point, and i would imagine often lower marketing budgets. >> it's being driven by the beer drinker. the beer drinker is turning toward small, local independent companies who are putting out beers in a variety of flavors, a variety of beer styles. and it's just turning on. people are willing to spend a little more for a beer that they really want. >> but why? why now? wouldn't they just go for the lower -- for the lower-priced beers as opposed to moving up the scale and going for something more boutique? >> you know, the large brewers are suffering a little bit from seeing their product shift down from the premium beers to the sub premium discount beers, and so while they're volume is holding up, the sales dollars are a little -- in a little tougher spot right now. so they are seeing a little bit of shift downward. but for craft brewers, people are moving over from wine and spirits and people are willing to spend more. >> that seems to be a big trend here, where people are giving up the wine or champagne and moving to beer in this economic environment. but justin, overall, is this a

typical trend? do you anticipate this kind of behavior when we're in such a tough time? >> people will drink more, in other words? >> i don't know if i anticipate it, but, you know, we have certainly seen a lot of people that are, you know, paying attention to what they're consuming, whether it be food or wine or in this case be and i think a lot of people are trying out beers, just because there are so many really special things that are really affordable right now. >> so my question here is, this is a trekked we're reeg seeing right now, although economic times are tough. what's going to happen when the economy starts booming again. would you imagine a shift or do you think once people are hooked on the boutique beer, they'll stay there? >> i think they'll definitely stay there. as information is available about these products, you know, a lot of these have been around for a long time, and there are so many new innovations right now, i think people will continue to be very excited about it and just grab a good foot hold. >> what happens to these companies as they go from boutique to being more and more popular? let me throw this one at you, paul. do they suddenly lose that

boutiqueness quality? at some point, as more and more people drink them and they become more popular, how do they still keep that sort of small-beer aspect to them? >> well, many are answering the challenge by changing their beers pretty regularly. seasonal beers are the most popular segment of the craft sector, so every three or four months, brewers, you know, the regional brewers, as well as the micro breweries are all changing their products, and it's adding excitement for the beer drinker, and people are exploring all these new flavors. and in some ways, the breweries are reinventing themselves every few months. >> justin, how much do you feel that the big wine and spirit makers, the big conglomerates, if approximate you like, are diverse fighting further into the boutique beer area? >> we're certainly seeing that. i think with -- at least with the products i'm selling, we're not so much involved with those larger companies that are trying to branch into the boutique beer arena. but we're deductible seeing it more and more all around us.

>> can i ask you, do you have any idea how many craft brewers there are here in the united states? >> gosh, in terms of actual number of breweries, that's probably not the best question for me, but i think it's in the 1,300, 1,400 realm. >> 1482. >> there you go, smack on. are people interested at all in the craft beers, the boutique beers from overseas, the imported stuff? >> i'm sorry -- >> paul, why don't you answer first? >> yeah. the -- we -- the imports actually having a rough go of it so far this year, down 9.5% by volume in the first six months of the year. >> is that a pricing issue? >> that could be a price issue, the gap between some of the imports and some of the domestic premium beers has been pretty large lately. but also, the large american brewers have put in products that can kpeelt with those. of i think of bud lite lime of one of those taking share from the imports. there is also some belief in the

industry that colon aand hein kin have issues with their brands due to the age of them. >> bottoms up, everybody. >> yeah. learn something new every day. thanks, guys. "power lunch" at the top of the hour. bill griffith, what have you got? >> well, we're looking at these fdi rules that want to relax the ability of private equity to buy failed banks. the question is, will private equity step up and buy some of these failed banks? we'll look at that. by the way, happy avatar day,  everybody. thousands of movie-goers lining up tonight to get a 15-minute sneak peek of the new movie "avat "avatar" not out until september. but technology, we're wondering if that's the next big thing for hollywood, and wonder it will bring people into the movie theater ergs. and "new york times" report says for the first time in 30 years, the rich aren't getting richer. is that good or bad for the economy? something we'll ponder when we see you at the top of the hour.

trish? >> a quick break. germany's central bank says their economy is poised for a third quarter rebound. so what does it all mean for the rest of the world? we're heading out to jackson hole once again for a first on cnbc interview with the german bank president axle weber, straight ahead only on "the call."hy call."hy a truly global show today, isn't it trish?el >> it sure is! and suvs in america. i don't know if you've heard, but this whole fuel-efficiency thing... kind of a big deal. anyway, ford and lincoln mercury have you covered. in fact, they're your cash for clunkers specialists. they'll recycle your ride and get you a rebate of up to $4,500. how's that for going green? why ford? why now? why not? visit your ford or lincoln mercury dealer. tell 'em mike sent you. if you think it would help.

women's clothing retailer, ann taylor, reporting a higher than expected quarterly profits, but it tempered its outlook for

the second half of the fiscal year. nonetheless, the stock does moving to the up side by 3/10 of 1% at $12.86. >> we're waiting on germany central bank president axle weber. in the meantime, we bring in bob pi ssani who has a check on the market. bob, up 150 here on a friday, not a whole lot to complain about. financials leading the way? >> yeah, and i want to point out something that the volume has picked up. remember, we've had seasonally light volume all throughout the week, and we're picking up on the volume. back to you. >> okay, thanks so much. we want to just point out, we've got mr. bernanke coming. i think we have some video of that, central bankers continuing their policy talks out in jackson hole, wyoming. this is live video you see there. mr. bernanke walking. we've got our own steve liesman there, as all of these policy makers meet. and debate, mandy. >> absolutely. and i do believe he is standing there with jean claude trichet

and the head of the boj, the bank of jap. so obviously some heavy-hitting conversations going on there between those three. perhaps at the moment -- just looking at the nice view. >> very nice view. great place to be. >> now that the meeting is all over. >> we also want to point out that steve liesman does have an interview coming up with the head of germany's central bank, so that will be happening momentarily. but in the meantime here, we watch as ben bernanke stands there with mr. trichet. >> yeah, and seemed more up beat in terms of the global recession, said we're merging out. let's get to steve liesman there on the grounds for more. steve. >> thanks very much. ben bernanke is doe doing a global walk, and we have a global perspective here with axle weber, president of the

german global business bank. thank you for joining us, it's become a tradition. >> thank you. >> there were surprise gdp numbers. what do you make of the numbers in europe? >> i think it's a steep downturn of the germany downturn has been halted. there is signs of stabilization. don't get too optimistic yet. we're seeing quite a positive second year in our own perspective. some better numbers that will come along. but, you know, it's too early to draw the conclusion that everything is behind us. we just reached a bottom. and in terms of levels of gdp, it will take until 2013 to recover the same kind of level in gdp. so, you know, it takes some time. don't get too euphoric at this stage. >> are you expecting positive growth in the current quarter and beyond? is there a constant trajectory, positive growth? >> we expect all the early indicators show that positive is likely to be positive in the third quarter, and actually, our projection for the whole year, 2010, may be slightly rised

upwards in our next projection. but it's too early to really say that it won't be a bumpy road ahead. >> with central bank, talking about positive growth and trend growth when is the return in your forecast, and how fast the economy should be growing under normal circumstances? >> actually, we have revised down our trend growth perspective. >> right. >> so it's unlikely that even within the next decade we'll return to the kind of growth rate we have seen over the last five or six years on trend. of so trend growth is slightly down. and it may take us sometime, as i said, to recover. so we're not that optimistic from the long-term perspective. may be more clouded than the past few years. >> what does this tell you about what the trajectory policy ought to be, given what the market believes policy debate? >> i think one thing is clear. the science we have seen in stabilization is due to three areas. policy measures, policy measures and policy measures. monetary policy, the banking stabilization and also fiscal policy. these are the main areas where

we see some effect. but it's too early to withdraw those. so they will have to be in line, and on balance for some time. but as we come out of this year, the stabilization may continue, and it may actually -- we may see some weaker growths ahead in the long term, but of course it's going to come back. so i think that over the next year, we can talk about successively phasing out some of these measures, and it will really much depend on how the economy is going. >> do you have an idea how it works? does the ecb, marginal living rate go up first, or do you first withdraw liquidity in the market and what is the stage in your mind and how advanced is the ecb now, and bonus banking in terms of with drawing policy measures? is. >> i don't want to speculate about that, because we have meetings coming up that we will discuss. but we use what we call the separation principle, which means rates are geared that the economy and how it's doing and how inflation rates are perceived, the repoe facilities and bank lending and our refinancing separations are a different issue. now, with the full allotment

mode, we kind of threw these things together, because that's why short rates are way below our official rates. we will have to phase that out and at some point have to separate the two issues again, because i think it was principally a very good decision to do that. kept it for most of the years, gave it up after lehman. that will be one of the things that will have to be agreed to use at some point to really make the distinction again between financial markets and the real economy. >> i would be remiss if i didn't ask you the german view of the u.s. economy, because i know that's very important in your outlook, as well. the u.s. and global economy, how do you expect those growth rates to play out? >> it's not just the u.s. anymore. germany has never seen a sustained recovery that wasn't export-drichb. and i think since the business model hasn't changed that much over the last few years, we will have to see sustained exports which will then start impacting on investment. and then investment becomes self-sustained. the german economy. what we're seeing is huge capacity at this stage, so even if exports are performing

somewhat better, we don't see a big investment coming up, you know, in the near future, so it's going to be a long process until this recovery is going to be sustained. and that's what we're trying to caution everybody not to believe too early that we're already on a sustained -- >> axle, thanks so much for joining us. axle weber, president of the bank. thank you. >> that is it for "the call" today. >> mandy, it's been a pleasure this week. i'm on vacation next week, so i'll see everyone in a week's time. i'm trish regan. "power lunch" is up next. >> have a good time, trish. some people buy a car based on the deal they get. others by the car of their dreams. during the lexus golden opportunity sales event, you can do both. special lease offers now available on the 2009 is 250.

but i've still got room for the internet. with my new netbook from at&t. with its built-in 3g network, it's fast and small, so it goes places other laptops can't. i'm bill kurtis, and wherever i go, i've got plenty of room for the internet. and the nation's fastest 3g network. gun it, mick. (announcer) sign up today and get a netbook for $199.99 after mail-in rebate.

with built-in access to the nation's fastest 3g network. only from at&t.

well, we're all sitting here, humming the theme song from "hawaii 5-0" can't get it out of our heads, we'll explain laerth and would love to share with you. welcome to "power lunch," bulls in charge, surging to new highs. on the back of the latest housing report, which was encouraging. home builders among the winners today as equities head into

their fifth week of gains. >> and i'm sue herrera, and regulators want to make it easier for private equity to buy some of these fallen financials. so which p/e firms will step in? is it. >> i'm michelle cabrusso-cabrera. the rich are getting poorer. i know, take out your vial lines, losing millions selling their homes to pay bills. but we'll tell you why middle class americans should be really worried about the financial health of the wealthy. here's what else is on the menu. >> i'm steve liesman, in if jackson hole, wyoming where fed chairman ben bernanke gave a guardedly optimistic view on the economy. >> existing home sales bumped up a whopping 7% on july, but all on the low end, foreclosure sales, and first time home buyers are juicing the market, pushing prices down. >>