here's some of the other stories on the "closing bell" ticker. barclays rising the price on dell, boosting for 2010 and 2011 because of higher profit margins. citi is raising the price target on the stock to $18 because of of improving demand amist the pc upgrade. overweight my morgan stanley, although the firm is maintaining the $23 price target. the stock has risen 14% since mid july, finished down 78 cents

at 22. and whirlpool announcing planning to close to cut production in excess capacity. the appliance maker has been trying to reduce its costs. it finished up about 61.66, maria is back on monday, have a great weekend, we'll see you monday. the dow's daily winning streak ends at eight with today's decline but the index is on track for sixth straight monthly gain. blue chips are up since the end of february. investors want to get out of the core's hedge funds, they asked for the return of over $5.5 billion, about 71% of the fund's assets. "fast money" with melissa lee starts now. the dow's winning streak is over, it ends at eight. is the correction coming now?

here's how to protect and profit. this is "fast money," i'm melissa lee, back, readied, raring to go from vacation. holding up today, is that where you want to be in september? we'll cover that and much more, including a top obama adviser revealing the fact the white house economic outlook, but first the miley cyrus trade. but let's get to the word on the street today. >> hey, mel. >> it is great to be back to see all of you guys, every one of you. >> where were you? >> on the beach. a little r & r. >> great book for you folks out there, check it out. read it on this rainy weekend. >> why not? >> great segue. >> after you watch "fast money." >> yeah, yeah, of course. and "options action" 8:30. >> we've got good news from dell and intel today and yesterday. and you would think that that would be enough to lead the markets higher, and yet even the tech trade falling apart today. >> it was good, it wasn't great, though, it was outrageous.

this is a seasonal thing and frankly one of the big reasons they're doing so well is amd is a disaster. he's been all over this thing. listen, the market should've rallied strong today i would think on the back of dell last night and the back of what intel said today, it didn't, scares me. did it go down? no but it didn't go up either. i'm still cautious. >> hell of a run, it's a friday. no reason to lock yourself up for two more days. going on the month end, a lot of people with profits and what they haven't done in a while is lock them in. i wouldn't look too much into it. >> joe? >> i agree with guy, i was not happy with the performance out of tech, but when you look back, you have to look at this validating last week's price action. last week it was all about getting above 11010 in the s&ps we held that support and moved higher. and also the oil and commodities

trade held up the reversal higher than the previous week. this week was all about validating last week's. >> well, without merck and ibm pulling the dow down, we finished stronger, much stronger into the close. i think the big thing here is that demand is definitely up for technology. we know that, we've heard it from john chambers, we've heard it over at intel, and then we heard it last night from michael dell. that's good news, the bad news is that the upgrade cycle is still several months out into the future. so i think the people that wanted to hold the longs right now just naked are exactly wrong. the people that want to sell into this, take some profits, particular in tech with the upgrade cycle we've talked about, i think those are the smart money traders. >> going deeper into technology. and when you take a look at dell, for instance, up 88% in the past six months, even though a giant like ibm fell 1% on the session. >> we were positive on dell.

we've been talking about it for a while. we thought dell, the stock, could rally, doesn't mean we love dell the company. they made comments on july 13th that were negative, they beat what they said in early july. good quarter, not great, valuations a little rich for me. i'd rather earn hewlett-packard over dell right here, but i don't think you can own anything at this point. >> we talked about on the halftime show the fundamentals of technology, the pc upgrade cycle, it's a matter of time. the problem with technology right now is the technicals actually are not lining up correctly. i think you pointed out micro. so, there was overhead resistance, if you look at a pricing action, it was so discouraging -- >> what was discouraging about it? >> it would have to be if you're willing to get -- >> you are the biggest microsoft pullout. >> microsoft lover. but you have to look at what the price action was. go back to the day before they had their earnings. the range was 24.84 all the way

up to 25.80. what you saw was an opening back within that range and it failed, failed miserably, nothing but selling, nothing but inventory left over that wanted to get out from that day and it closed below that day's range at 24.68. that's bad price action. >> so even though dell comes out and it's good news foreseeably for microsoft if it is optimistic based on the upgrade cycle, and yet you're willing to take the technicals over that picture and sell? >> the tape tells me what to do right now. >> and that's one that's definitely out there. i love the stock, joe, i think joe's right to be on it, but that one's ahead of itself, microsoft, that is. i think if we're talking about october time frame, late october, i'd be much more interested in any up side action in microsoft than i am out here in august. >> what are you hearing, steve, in terms of flow on the floors amongst the institutions when it comes to technology? are they looking to lock some profits? it is an interesting tape when you see dell continue to move

higher as well as microsoft. >> what happened when they came off the bottom 870 in the s&p and started rallying, tech rallied very hard and once the funds start to see the bulk of their money, their overweight tech at that point, so they're forced to sell the tech and buy something else that didn't perform as well. >> let's talk about that smartphone trade, we got the news out of apple, getting into china, that's going to be a terrific market that's going to triple by 2011 or so. >> and that where you get choosey on what you like in tech. i got long apple because i truly believe as john you spoke about last night, that apple story is a lot closer in terms of the top line, in terms of actually getting revenue from china. the deal is signed, looks like this will be launched in october and you're talking about if they can acquire let's say 1% to 2% market share of that smart phone share, that's about $2 billion in revenue. >> why do you think apple's more leveraged than a nokia which

already has great presence. >> because nokia doesn't make any money on their phones. apple's going to make a fortune on selling these phones. as i said last night about the brand awareness that the chinese have. louis vitton the iphone is that in that country. they buy their minutes, you know, rather than all they can eat like in the united states, they buy packages. i think they'll afford it, i think it's another chance for that app store to grow dramatically which is already $2.5 billion business annually. >> better way to play than say a dell or rimm's there, as well? >> paul jacobs was on with maria a couple weeks ago at a qualcomm, that's a way to play things, as well. if you think the tape -- listen, if you're bearish and you think the tape is going down, apple will go faster than the overall tape. if you're bullish, apple's the stock you want.

palm to me topped out a couple weeks ago now i think it's no man's land now. that's the way the trade sets up for me. >> let's move on. bank shares, the sector closing out on a positive note. citigroup ending higher by 11%. and interesting considering the analyst we got from kgw, saying they're headed to zero. >> well, i'm sorry, i was just going to say, the best bank trader for the last couple weeks has been steve, he's been all over it, he's the guy to talk to. >> got that $100 for you later. >> all right. steve, you bought citi at three and change? >> four and change. >> four and change. >> are they going to zero? possibly, but when? that's the question. we all thought they were worth nothing and people come in and buy the stocks up. and they're chasing performance. these are part of the index that are the benchmarks for these funds. they're forced to chase that

performance going into year end or they miss out and have another down year on a lot of these funds. >> you're saying the move higher is going to be based on actually people getting long the stock as opposed to a sthort squeeze. >> oh, it starts off with short. so it starts off there and then what happens, the stock becomes hard to borrow, then you have longs getting in. >> the fdic, can't discount certain things, 416 banks now on the problem list, that's up from 305 in the first quarter, delinquent loans of 90 days or more up to 4.35%. you could choose not to listen to them, that's fine, or you could choose to listen to that and think things are scary in bank land and get out. i would choose the latter. >> and a split. there's rumors everywhere that citi is going to do a reverse stock split. >> it should do wonders for aig shares. >> that short squeeze that mr. grasso talked about all of a sudden becomes a monster, it will.

again, aig it fell off a cliff after their reverse stock split and then it went back to work, i think in the same v in citi. >> there's no loan growth, a long-term story, no it's not that bullish, but short-term, that's why these stocks are running and they could run another two months before they get hit. >> you know, when you look at these financial names, i don't know if you can make the claim it's not seeing any improvement in consumer banking because clearly you are. look at the wells fargos, u.s. banks, jpmorgans, there is an improvement right now in the consumer. housing, housing, the loans, they service those loans, consumers feeling better about that balance sheet. so i think that when you look at the entire sector, you also have to say, yes, the fundamentals have improved slightly and they have improved to the advantage. >> i agree with you 100%, i'm talking specifically with the aig fannie, freddie, citi. >> and to joe's point, yes, we are on a horribly frightening

pace in bank failures, but at the same time, one could argue too many were given out in the first place, and with the closing that could benefit some of the other banks who will step into those other bank places and make the loans to the consumer. >> you read it on the beach, didn't you? >> read it on the beach. >> nice job. >> that's all you have to say? all right. >> obviously two sides to every side. no doubt about it. all i'm saying is a lot of these stocks have had a monster run. wells fargo put action, i think earlier this week, a lot of people looking for wells to go down, it's been topping out on 28 1/2. again, i think wells fargo goes lower, trading at 24. >> just to wrap the conversation up. everyone's looking for a correction in the market. look at goldman sachs, when goldman sachs breaks down, that's when the market itself is going to break down. >> let's move on to our chart of the day. this is an interesting one. transports revving higher this week nearing a new six-month high, are they merely topping out here? this is the confirmation of the rally. this is pretty good news here. >> now, listen, good news you

saw the rw baird initiation. some of the price targets will be outrageous. b & i target of $100. it could get there if the dow rallies another 25%. i think the b & i run is over. it's been topee for a while. that stock, i think, trades down to the mid-70s. some of these stocks have had tremendous runs, i think, again, we're a little long in the tooth here. >> when you say oil, yes, it's hit resistance of $75 or so, when you see it tick higher, you've got to wonder about the legs of the fedexs or upss of the world. >> and part of that, melissa, because fedex and ups have stunk it up the last couple of quarters. it's been very difficult for them. that's a head wind right in their face, they haven't hedged as much as they could have or should've, none of with us bought enough when oil went down to $40 and clearly the airline stocks fedex and u.p.s., big

airline exposure because of the massive consumption there, that's one of the reasons they haven't performed yet. if it pulls back and i'm one of the guys that thinks it goes into the 60s here before it goes to 80, i think it pulls into the 60s crude oil, i think that's better for u.p.s. and fedex. >> i was thinking i wonder what joe's doing with oil here. >> i don't think you were thinking at all. maybe for a fleeting second. but if you look at the commodity space right now, we had a conversation this week, who is the best commodities trader right now in 2009? the chinese government, absolutely. why? because they recognize what prices deflated, they went in, and stocked up on all of these commodities and lifted them off the bottom right now. if you look right now, yes, it is about a weakening dollar, absolutely, but it also is about a shift, a shift in inventories and you're beginning to see we are working off existing inventories without ramping up supply. so i take actually the other side of what john's saying, i

truly believe the commodities continue their path higher as we march towards the end of the year and i do believe $75 in oil, that may be a low print over the next three months. >> so you're long right now? >> i am long sun corps -- >> in the commodity itself? >> in the oil commodity itself? right now i have short dated versus long dated contracts. >> let's move on here, talk about the consumer here, topping the tape today, shares of high-end retailer tiffany, the stock higher by 11%, did beat analyst estimates, raise the full-year outlook, could see a drop in sales about 16%. and it was the mix of merchandise which raises some eyebrows, the low-end merchandise, yes, they sell low-end merchandise, things like sterling silver, those came in higher, as opposed to the diamond and platinum kind of thing. >> everybody wants the little blue boxes as a present. when you go out and buy something cheap because you're watching your pennies right now, i think that's why they bought

the lower end stuff. you wait until that cycle kicks in for the holiday shopping season and that's gold in that box and diamonds in that box instead of sterling silver and this is going to be big for tiffa tiffany's. >> are you setting yourself up for your wife? >> she's not going to get the blue box. she'll get the same stuff in a different box. >> this was $24 stock a month ago, $24 stock, now we talked about -- >> it's like 17 times. >> we like the valuation and now it's 22 times forward earnings, i don't think you can like it. is there a short covering rally? yeah. could it go higher here? it'll do it without us because the valuations don't make sense. >> the problem is what we're talking about on the desk, everything seems overpriced right now, but this rising tide is lifting everything to a level where no one wants to step in and the smart guys continue to buy it, but as i said this morning you can't leave your computer. you've got to be ready to sell these things when they pop. let's move on and talk a

little bit more about that mad dash. shares of aig, fannie mae, freddie mac, all closing higher by more than 36%, but are the investors betting on these names for a rude awakening? joining us now paul miller of fbr capital. paul, i believe you were in this camp you think the stocks are headed for zero, correct? >> not aig, fannie and freddie, we have a -- we have a 50-cent price target on this company. and the issue is they're into the government by over $100 billion, chargeoffs continues to rise, non-performing assets continues to get high. there's no value. we think a lot of this was caused by the aig-type situation where you did a reverse stock split, now everybody's looking at fannie and freddie. the issue is the government doesn't need it. the government doesn't want a lot of value here because the government knows there's no value here at fannie and freddie. the only reason the government didn't completely takeover, they

don't want that debt on the government's balance sheet, so they left some stock out here. >> if the government knows these are worth zero, why didn't the sec come out and warning people like they did for gm? at the time gm was in bankruptcy. but you're say implicitly the government knows they're not worth anything and not doing anything about it. >> i can't speak for the sec or one or the other. i can tell you right now, given fannie and freddie, the amount of money they're into the government, these shares are worth relatively -- >> paul, does that compartmentalized, will that sift its way into the rest of the financials and the rest of the market? >> i think it's just those two relatively speaking. the rest of the financials, you know, they've done much better than i would have anticipated. i'm one of the big bears out there, but i do think even, for the bulls, these stocks are getting way ahead of themselves. some of these stocks are trading at a higher multiple than they were in 2004 and 2005. i think there's just, you know, everybody's all bulled up, getting excited edexcited, but e

trying to justify the high prices. even if you go back to earnings in 2005, these stocks are looking somewhat rich. >> paul? >> is there a scenario where they don't go to zero in your worst-case scenario? i hear it could be zero. but the truth is, a lot can happen and a lot can happen with these balance sheets, is there a case where they don't go to zero? >> listen, there's going to be some trading out there. stocks always going to have some type of value just because they're out there trading, but, you know, they would have to have some type of conclusion on the government of what you're going to do, what the business model is going to look like and that's going to take two or three years, we're a long way off trying to find out what kind of value fannie and freddie's going to have. we're not going to know anything for the next year or two. >> paul miller, thanks so much. >> there's a little irony. i want to know if you find the irony. remember last year the financials we banned short-selling and select financials. this is the opposite. maybe we should be banning short squeezers in select financials. this is just the other side of that trade, but yet we're doing

nothing about that, right? >> yeah, that's an interesting -- >> i didn't -- mr. miller, i respect the guy, but i don't think his argument made sense as far as the fact the government doesn't care if the stock goes up. what do you mean? >> there would be a lot of constituents out there who would be very angry with their congress people if these go to zero and we poured all of the money into it. >> absolutely. >> and you said it the first time, the government will let all of these investors put money into it hand over fist. doesn't seem plausible. >> i want to short squeeze your investigation. >> and that was the word on the street. coming up next, we talk to a member of obama's economic recovery advisory board on the possibility of a double dip recession. and then we head to the charts to tell you what key level to watch. we crown the new king of the whales. here's what else is coming up on "fast." is an optimistic market

ignoring a possible double dip? a top obama adviser reveals the forecast from inside the white house. and it's the hottest thing on the street, and no, we're not talking about viral videos. it's exploding options activity. and here's how to trade it. plus, it's a good old-fashioned restaurant chain that has hungry patrons and wall street smiling. cracker barrel's ceo spins the tale next when america's post market show continues.

welcome back to "fast money," we're live at the market site in new york city's time square. time now for the obama trade. look at that. >> love it. >> it is his favorite. is recovery on track? or are we headed for a double dip recession? laura, it is always great to speak with you. >> thanks, melissa, pleasure. >> you have within quoted saying the most likely outcome for the u.s. economy is a slow recovery with lots of downside risk. what exactly does that look like? >> well, you know, i'm very struck by the conversation that went on in jackson hole a couple of weeks ago, and if you listen to the economists there and the central bankers, and what they were saying was, look, we believe that the recession is

over, we believe that the economy has embarked upon a recovery period. there is the possibility that we have a very weak recovery with continued downside risk is very real. and basically that was the consensus view among people who watched the economy on a regular basis hour by hour and day by day. it hasn't really changed that much when i spoke about it from a couple of weeks ago. >> i'm guessing you think that is the best-case scenario for the economy, you probably think the obama administration is doing everything it can with the stimulus plan, so therefore -- >> you know, it's not just the obama administration, it's the obama administration and administrations around the world and the central banks around the world. i think we have to recognize that the recovery that the u.s. economy has entered and that recoveries around the world are reliant on a huge amount of fiscal and monetary support. a huge amount, unprecedented

amount of fiscal stimulus in the united states, unprecedented amount of stimulus in china, unprecedented by central banks who have dramatically increased the size of their balance sheets and aren't walking away from that. they're saying we don't think there is enough evidence yet to pull back on all this monetary support. and i think that's a very strong message. >> laura, i've got a quick question for you. by the way, i love berkeley, my dad is golden bear, so is my brother. >> terrific. >> i'll be up there for a game this year, probably washington state. anyway, my question for you is as far as the recovery, don't you think some sort of credit to small business tax credit to small business to do some hiring would help turn the employment data around quicker than this long, drawn out stimulus that most of which isn't going to be spent well into 2010? >> well, actually, i think i would say that the stimulus, the major effect of the stimulus by design and actually it's playing out this way is this quarter and

next quarter and going into the first quarter of next year. so right now, we are at a point in time where we're getting the biggest effects. and, you know, i think that's one of the reasons why the economy is going to be so strong in the second half of 2009. we have inventory rebuild going on, we have strong fiscal stimulus coming in, and we have the monetary authorities essentially standing pat on a very accommodative policy. i think it's important to say that one of the things about any policy proposal right now is we really do have to get more information about how the economy is performing. and we've just entered a period where it looks like we are beginning to recover. let's get some more information from the real economy about what's happening here. >> dr. tyson, it's joe, i've got to ask you a question. don't you think it's time for wall street and obama to bury the hatchet? how come obama has not come to wall street and visited with us yet? do you think he should? >> well, i didn't know there was

a hatchet. i am involved in wall street and i certainly would not say there was a hatchet. i think one should recognize -- i talked about monetary and fiscal stimulus, let's take the stress test here, let's take the fact that essentially -- and i wasn't a supporter, i was a skeptic about the stress test. what has happened here is with the help of the administration and with the help working often times with the fed, we have brought private capital back into the market. it has been a set of policies that have been very favorable to wall street. in fact, the low interest rate policy is behind a lot of the trading that's going on right now. so i just -- i didn't think there was a hatchet, truthfully. >> can i take that as, yes, president obama will be coming to wall street soon? >> maybe we should just examine whether there is a hatchet, or not. i would hope there wasn't one and the more there's a recognition that the administration is doing whatever it can to build the basis for a strong economic recovery.

and it has and looks like that it's working certainly in terms of catching the economy in a free fall and bringing it back to life. i think that's the -- that's what the administration can do for the real economy. >> or maybe president obama could just come on "fast money." >> the invitation is always open as it is for you, laura, always a pleasure to have you with us. >> maybe next time you should do at cal bears game. >> sounds good. >> take care, everybody. >> thank you. all right, guys. obama's policy is good -- joe, you brought up the question, sounds like you have some doubts. >> i have so. is there a hatchet? yeah, there clearly has been a problem between wall street and president obama's administration. that is what it is. and if the economy's improving, if the markets are improving, and we do have this regulation coming, i'd like to see president obama come to wall street, sit down with the leaders of wall street and figure out how to navigate our way through this process. >> let's move on to the next trade.

time for whale watching, reports that he's buying shares of citigroup. could paulson be replacing warren buffett as the most watched big time investor. >> absolutely he is. >> why? >> warren buffett's a brilliant man, but warren buffett gets terms none of the rest of us can get. john paulson is buying stocks you and i can buy at the same level. rather than getting a deal where i get a 10% dividend from goldman sachs and additional calls, you know, we'll call it converts on that trade, paulson's in here buying citi shares, that's a completely different investor, that's a lot more like you and me. >> paulson, this is who the mutual funds are watching, the hedge funds are watching, this is the new warren buffett of our lifetime right here. >> and the one thing he's doing right here no one's talking about, buying gold. keep that in mind, gold is slowly rising, while we do talk

about citi, bank of america, and goldman sachs, keep your eye on what he's doing and what he's thinking in terms of inflation. >> do you ever, guy, look at these guys and say that guy's buying that so i'm in too? >> well, i think it's cool he's buying this stuff, but you don't know what he's selling on the other side. he could be out of these positions entirely, you have no idea. so if you follow these guys, you basically do it with a grain of salt because there could be a lot of other things going on. >> we talked about that one when all of those were coming out that we do not know how they're hedging these positions. and that brings us to our "fast money" poll of the day. "poll action." >> don't say that. >> i haven't said it here in weeks. who is the best wall street whale to fall? a, warren buffett, b, bill alaskaman, c, david einhorn. was today the start of the correction?

70% of you saying a reality check lies ahead. but what do the charts say? let's go to the director of technical research. he joins us from the magical place. >> hey, melissa, i think my ear piece was broken. did i hear you say earlier instead of thinking about your next cocktail on the beach thinking of joe and what he thought about oil? >> i just said it crossed my mind. >> it's only human, greg. >> obviously. >> did you catch me rolling my eyes? i did. what do you see in the markets? >> again, we've been talking about the 21-day moving line, it's only been in a negative slope for eight days since march. this is what keeps me on nest the mark honest. it doesn't mean we can't have a quick draft below that, but that is how i lead into what i wanted to talk about today and that's protecting profits, right? joe focussed on goldman sachs. you look at goldman sachs, i

recommended it on november 21st when it was trading down, four days later it was 80, and it has a look back. you have bank of america going from 4 up to around 18. the amount of profits in the last five months have been absolutely outstanding. what i say about goldman, same type of look in the chart. the positive moving average line, price action looks different, decent, a little bit of a high or topping pattern here. but protect your profits at this point. goldman got above 160, put a stop in at 157, doesn't mean you have to liquidate your whole position, but if the market starts to come off and people start to become skiddish, we'll have a downdraft in a big way, why leave profits on the table? take 30% of that and put a protective spot on it, only if it closes below, take some profits off the table. that will never hurt you. we look at another recommendation that i put out on july 8th. and that was general electric.

i recommended buying it at 10.75, i said it would go to 16, it's gotten up to 14.90. stopped short a little bit of my objective, backing and filling, i would put a stop under 13. again, these have been incredible profits in a short period of time. >> greg, you mentioned protecting your profits on goldman. john, how is implied doing for these stocks, goldman in particular? >> it's very cheap right now. you can buy protection a lot cheaper than you could just two months ago, for instance. forget about the highs of last year, it's just cheap right now. so exactly what greg's saying, i agree 100% with greg, with joe, with anybody else who thinks that you should sleep soundly by having a put or having some insurance in your portfolio. i do it, that's how i sleep soundly, and i think it works for everybody if you just take advantage of what the market's giving you. >> okay. greg's still there. >> greg. quick question for you, steve

grasso, i remember you said you were going to be a hesitant buyer if we burst through the 1,015 level on the s&p 500. where do you see the next trouble zone? my client thinks we can go from 1,075 to 1,100. >> it's a 50% retracement of the entire loss from 2007 down to the march low. so we came recently within 90 points of that, we know that we're up near the upper end of this move. we started at around 660, now up above 1,000, around 1,120, that's a 50% retracement. we can't get too greedy, we'll watch it week in and week out. we'll let you know if we see something, if we have an explosion in the up side in the next week, that may be a blowoff period, i'll take a look at that point. know within the next 90 points, we've made 50% of the losses within the last six months of the last year and a half. >> pigs get slaughtered. time now to --

>> hogs -- >> oh, that's right. i knew i missed. >> because i'm a pig. >> i always mix up my swine. time now to head to our prop desk. i think before you were, guy, up bright and early in order to catch a glimpse of their favorite star. she performed on this morning's "today" show. guy's rocking out here on the "today" show. that's you. >> that's what? >> of course, everybody was there for research purposes, attempting to see how they could -- >> is that why keith called in sick? >> i think so. you have to get up bright and early to get a good spot on the the plaza. this isn't often overlooked, but of course, we are talking about the tweens. do you guys believe in the power of the -- i think they are still getting their allowances even if parents are cutting back. >> it is a powerful group, no doubt, especially in this back to school session. i think one of our pops will be

pacific sun ware. just upgraded the stock. it's the name that fits in this whole mode, it's $3.50 stock. it may get there, but that's one you might want to watch. pretty big short interest. valuation to me doesn't make sense. that's one place you want to look. >> and disney runs those commercials all day long for miley cyrus, the jonas brothers, and they don't run commercials for anybody else on that channel. so i guess it does well for them feeding into all of the rest of the ways they sell. >> okay. there you have it, the tween trade. the ceo of a company breaking in profits on the trade down trend. can the stock continue on its 41% runoff? or is it time to sell? his secretary! she's 23 years old! - oh, come on. - enough! you get half and you get half. ( chirp ) team three, boathouse? ( chirp ) oh yeah-- his and hers. - ( crowd gasping ) - ( chirp ) van gogh? ( chirp ) even steven.

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welcome back to "fast money." time for pop stock. we look at a stock that has been popping as consumers look for an affordable meal. restaurant chain cracker barrel up almost 40% this year. analysts are loving this casual diner. joining us is cracker barrel

president and ceo. mr. woodhouse, always a pleasure to speak with you. >> hi, melissa, pleasure to speak with you and thanks for the opportunity. we're very excited about our brand and we're getting ready to celebrate our 40th anniversary he here. >> on monday. let's talk about how your is to be has been climbing. no discounting, none of the smaller portions that a lot of your competitors have embarked on. how much longer can you keep that up to offset the decline we've seen in consumer spending? >> well, we think we're doing a pretty good job. the reason we're doing that is we're staying true to our brand, which is all about value, always has been for the last 40 years. we're running ahead of naptrack, the major restaurant index, have been for about three years in terms of guest traffic. and we've been improving even more in the last seven or eight months. >> mr. woodhouse, the stock's been a monster, i think you opened three new stores last quarter, i think 11 for the year, coming to your fiscal fourth quarter, what's your

growth plans for next year if you can talk about that? >> we're only going to open seven stores next year, we think we've got to be cautious about where we go with new stores, and we're very focussed on the performance of new stores. we're going to consider returning to a more normalized growth out of the recession. >> where will you be opening the new stores? out of the i-95 corridor you've been in? >> well, we're in a lot of corridors, a lot of interstates. that's the history of the company. our strength is in travel and on the interstate and our new stores next year are going to be in fairly traditional cracker barrel sites. >> guys? >> i traced a fair valuation, 10 times forward earnings, done a great job, the stock's not rich, probably a decent shortage out there, but the tape, i think the stock can continue to go higher. >> and room to move prices up too. and that's what they've been doing this year. i think he continues to do that at a slow pace, but they continue to move up prices versus their competitors that are $2 or $3 a plate higher.

and i like this one like buffalo wild wings. i think that's what the consumer wants, especially theirs. >> one last question before we let you go. your ability to raise prices is partly because you have started off at a low base. at what point do you say, you know what, entrees above $12, we don't want to go there. >> we're able to take price in this environment, the competition, especially the casual diners are having to discount their product, do buy one and get one to even maintain a weaker traffic than we are. so we feel that we're in the right place from a pricing point of view. >> mr. woodhouse, thanks for your time. >> you could shop with mrs. najarian in there as well as eat. >> you can put it in a blue box. >> a gift certificate in a blue box. the stocks are making extreme moves this week. time for pops and drops. financial was up 7% on the week. >> i'm going to say stay away from it.

i know it's going to haunt me. >> citigroup was up, 11% pop this week. john? >> steve grasso told you to buy it, citigroup looks great, 523, the charts look good. something's going to happen further here. >> human geno. >> yeah, it's been heavy for the last two weeks, really. hgsi, human genome up, this stock. also takeover rumors, i've lightened up almost 100% of our long. >> they exist only because intel would be a monopoly if they didn't. intel helps them today, but this is a stock i would not be a buyer of, no. >> and we had a drop for dead beat, tax evaders that is. take heed if you're watching out there.

state tax departments are starting to scour the web when hunting down dead beats behind on their taxes. next time you get a facebook friend request or a poke, it may be the irs hunting you down. imagine being poked by the irs. terrifying. >> or for -- >> not the kind of poke you want. coming up next, we head to the options bid and give you the top name to play as obama's health care reform continues to stall. and up in the last six of seven weeks, is it setting up for a break or a breakdown? "fast money" coming back.

welcome back, stocks losing ground today after a big run-up in the last month as health care reform ran into more road blocks. let's see what the options market says. scott nations is an option action contributor also president of nation shares. scott, nice to see you in the flesh. >> good to be here. >> what are the options markets pricing in terms of health care and reform? >> the option markets have said that obama care is dead.

but you know what happens if everybody comes back from the break and gets chesty, that gives an opportunity. and some of these health care options are incredibly cheap, specifically j & j, you can buy the october 5565 strangle in j & j, spend less than 1% of the price of the stock and have that strangle in case something does happen, in case we have something that works out with obamacare, and i get to be long options during september and october when i want to be long options. so two good things that can make that trade work. >> now, the implied has come out on j & j so options are cheaper, how about the hmo stocks that might be a little bit more interference with their run-ups if we see some reform pass? >> you're right, j & j options are historically really cheap and often for a reason. but the insurers are still pretty pricey. some of the pharma names are not so pricey, but you really have to step up to the plate if you're going to buy options on some of the insurers for the very reason that the options are

expensive because we don't know what's going to happen and they are the ones that are going to have their ox gored. >> i agree with you, scott, and keep an eye on wellpoint, aetna, and unh because i -- and i know you are, scott. >> yeah. >> you can bet if we come back from the break and the congress is really bullish about this that those stocks are going to get clocked. and that's when you buy them just like you're saying. if you're already long the put, you can make some money on that drop. >> but you've got to be brave to step up and buy those options. those are expensive. >> scott, always great to see you. see you later tonight, in fact. because you won't want to miss -- >> at 8:30, "options action" new time. >> as guy said, 8:30 tonight. >> 7:30 central. >> 7:30 central says the man from chicago. coming up next, the call on the retailer has them down 10%. what should be your next move on that stock? we'll break down the trade right after this.

as the dow went on an eight-day winning streak, our traders had their own winning trade. tried to keep you quicker than the ticker. >> you want to buy oil when global supply is basically peaking, right, that's what we're seeing right now. what names are going to go up? >> the governor filing an oil service name that hit pay dirt as crude rallied 16%, occidental was up 18%. >> credit swiss also talked about a pc

dell to me is interesting. >> the negotiator directing you towards dell. the pc maker popping 5% after last night's earnings and running up 25% since the analysis. >> july, total vehicle sales up 2.3% and guess what ford did today? it went down, that tells you it's time to get off this ford trade and move to the sideline. that's the important take away from today. >> the liquidator believing this cash finish clunker bounce was due for a correction. as the government program came to a close and investors took profits, the stock sank 8%. >> you just heard the guy from mgm talking about the rooms are filling up and he's right, but the reason you bet on the place is right now they're filling up the rooms, but they're shopping because the deals that are available, they're shopping, they're not gambling in the casinos. so if you don't think the casinos have up side, i think they've got lots of up side. >> and finally the monster hitting the jackpot with mgm. after getting an upgrade at

goldman sachs, it paid off rallying 15%, leaving us with two words to sum it up. "fast money." time for the fast fire, we kick it off with the negotiator, he says stay away from j. crew. the stock was up more than 10%. >> i think you can short j. crew, valuations don't make sense. i think you can short jcg, sorry. >> all right. july 22nd, the governor steered you away from amd, but after getting an upgrade at citi, the stock was up 26%. steve? >> my customers still not buying the stock. i think the whole market went up, i would still be staying away from amd. >> back on july 6th, the monster staying away from the favorite, we're talking about regis, but after talking about the credit facilities, the stock was up 22%. >> well, it's the parent company of the hair club for men, i'm not a member, so i'm still staying away. >> finally the liquidatliquidat after below the quarter, the

stock sank 7%. joe? >> what we're going to do is risk one more dollar on the trade, put a stop in it, get out. >> final trade after this. é

final trade, joe? >> china. >> cracker barrel. >> apple. >> dr. jay. >> citigroup. >> i'm melissa lee, have a terrific weekend. monday, tackling tech. the best moves to make now. and health care check up.

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