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the dow's winning streeb is

over. is a correction coming? back and ready and raring to go from vacation. holding up today is that where you want to be in september? we'll cover that and more, including a top obama adviser reveal the white house economic outlook. plus the miley cyrus trade. first let's get to the words on the streets today. you're making a point. >> hey, mel. >> it is great to be back. with all of you guys. >> where were you? >> on the beach, a little r and r. >> you should check it out. read it on this, this rainy weekend. >> why not. >> unbelievable. >> after you watch "fast money." >> yeah, yeah, of course. what time is it? >> 8:30. >> let's move on here. we've got good news today and yesterday. you would think that that would be enough to lead the markets higher, even the tech trade falling apart today. >> people doing back flips about intel this morning. it wasn't great, it wasn't outrageous. this is a seasonal thing.

one of the big reasons they're doing so well is amd is a disaster. i give kudos to dougie, he's been on top of this thing. the markets should have rallied on the back of dell and what intel said today. it didn't. scares me. did it go down? no, didn't go up either, i'm still cautious. >> hell of a run. friday, people locking in profits. no reason to lock yourself up for two more days. there's a lot of people, wa they haven't done is lock them in. i wouldn't look too much into it. >> i agree with guy. i was not happy with the performance out of tech. when you look back upon this week you have to look at this week as validating last week's price action. what do i mean? last week was about getting ato have 1010 to 1015 in the s&p. we got above that level, we tested that level this week, we held that support and moved higher. also, the oil and commodities trade held up the reversal high that it had the previous week.

so this week was all about validating last week's price action. >> what's your take? >> i mean, without merck and ibm pulling the dow down we finished much stronger, in fact. i think the big thing here is that demand is telephone up for technology. we know that. we've heard it from john chambers. we've heard it at intel. we heard it last night.t. that's good news. the bad news is that the upgrade cycle is several months into the future. i think the people that wanted to hold the ons right now, just make it, are exactly wrong. the people that want to sell into this, take some profits and wait for a pull-back, in particular in tech with the upgrade cycle, i think those are the smart money traders. >> tell managed to make some gains today even though a giant like ibm fell 1% on the session. >> let's talk about dell. we were positive dell. we've been talking about it for a while. we thought dell the stock could

rally. doesn't mean we love dell the company. frakly they made comments on y'all thenth pretty negative. they beat what they said back in early squul. good quarter, not grade. valuations a little rich for me. again, i'd rather own hewlett packard over dell. i don't think you can really own anything at this point.. think the prkt's going lower. >> we talked about the fundamentals of technology. john spoke about it. the pc upgrade cycle. that's coming.g. the problem with technology right now is that technicals actually are not lining up correctly. we spoke last night, i think you pointed out microsoft. there was overhead resistance. if you look at the price action in microsoft, it was so discouraging that i got out of my long position -- >> what was discouraging about it?? >> it has to be. if you're -- >> microsoft lover on the -- >> ding, ding, ding. >> you have to look at what the price action was. go back to the day before they had their earnings. the range was 2484. all the way up to 2480.

what you saw from microsoft today was an opening. back within that range. and it fell. it failed miserably. it met nothing but selling, left nothing but inventory left over. you know where it closed? about that day's range, 2468. that's bad price action. >> even if dell comes out, good news for microsoft if it is optimistic based on the upgrade cycle. you're willing to take the technicals over that picture and sell? >> the tape tells me what to do right now. >> that's one that's definitely out there. i love the stock, joe. think joe is right to be on it. that one's ahead of itself, microsoft that is. i think if we're talking about october time frame, late october, i'd be more interested in any upside action in microsoft than here in august. >> what are you hearing in terms of the flow on the floor amongst the institutions when its comes to technology? are they looking to loss and profits? when you see dell continuing to move higher yet see the pullbacks in ibm as well as

microsoft. >> what happened when they came off the bottom in s&p and started rally is, tech rallied hard. once these funds start to see the bulk of their money, they're overweight tech. they're forced to sell the tech and buy something else that didn't perform as well. >> we've got the news out of apple today. getting into china. that's going to be a terrific market, triple by 20 head of or so. >> that's where you get choosey on what you like in check. i got long apple because i believe as you spoke about last night the apple story is closer in terms of the top line. in terms of actually getting revenue from china. the deal was signed there. looks like this will be launched in october. you're talking about if they can just acquire, let's say, 1% to 2% market share of that chinese is that right phone share, $2 billion in revenue.. that's coming. >> why do you think apple a esmore leveraged to the chinese market than nokia, which has great presence there? >> nokia doesn't make any money

on their damn phones. that's why. that's the reason. apple's going to make a fortune selling these phones. it's also because i said last night about the brand awareness that the chinese have.. i mean, louis vuitton.n. you look at all the brands they love. cadillac. the iphone is that in japan. it's a status item that many folks can't afford. they buy their minutes, you know, rather than all they can eat like in the united states. they buy packages. i think they'll afford it. i think it's another chance for that app store to grow dramatically, which is already a $2.5 billion business annually. >> it's a better way to play than a dell or -- >> jacobs' comments, i think he was on with maria, out of qualcomm.. that's a tangential way to play things as well. if you think this tape -- listen, if you're bearish and you think this tape is going down, apple will go down faster than the overall tape. if you're bullish than the apple stock you want to own here.

that's what it comes down to to me. now no man's land here, that's the way the trade sets up for me. >> talking the tape today, bank shares the sector closing out a choppy week, citigroup higher by 11%. interesting considering that analyst note by got saying essentially that citigroup, aig, fanny mac, freddie mac, headed to zero. >> you know, they're not -- i mean, the best bank trader for the last couple of weeks has been steve grosso, he's the guy to talk to. >> got that hundred for you later, guy. >> thank you, man. >> all right, steve, you bought citi at, what, four and change, three and change? >> four and change.. here the thing. are they going to zero? possibly. but when? that's the question. we've all thought they were worth nothing. people come in, buy these stocks up. they're chasing performance right now. these are part of the indexes that are the benchmarks for a lot of these funds. they're forced to chase that performance, examining into year end, or they miss out and they have another down year on a lot

of these funds are they're forced to buy them. >> you're saying the move higher is going to be based on people getting long the stock -- >> all rallied start off with short coverage. it starts off there. what happens, the stock becomes hard to borrow.. then you have longs getting in. >> fdic -- you can't discount certain things. 416 banks on the problem list in the second quarter, up from 305 in the first quarter. delinquent loans of 90 days or more a record 4.they've%. you could choose not to listen, that's 15. you could choose to look at that and say, maybe things are scary and get out. i'd choose the latter. >> talk about a ten for one split. there's rumors everywhere citi is going to do a ten for one reverse stock submit. they do that, this is the $50 stock -- >> it's doing wonders for at ig shares. >> the short squeeze all of a sudden becomes a monster, pardon the pun, of a short squeeze. it will. again, aif fell off a cliff.

after their reverse stock split. then it went back to work. i this you see the same v in citi. >> there's no fund a.m.ales to support it. there's no loan growth. a long-term story, it's not that bullish. short-term, that's the way the stocks are rubbing and could run another two months before think get hit. >> you look at financial names, i don't know you can make the claim it's not seeing improvement in consumer banking. hook at the wells far i don'ts, the u.s. baungss, jpmorgans. there is an im. proin the consumer, that wealth effect we hike to talk about. housing. the lows. they service those loans, the consumers feel better about that balance sheet. i think when you look at the sector, you also have to say, yes, the fundamentals have improved and they have improved to the advantage -- >> agree 100%. i'm talking specifically with the aig, fannie -- >> you machines the failure of banks. ear on a frightening pace but at the same time one could argue

that too many bank charters were given out in the first place and with the closing of some of these banks that could benefit some of the other banks who will step into those other banks' maces and make those loans. >> fair point there. >> read it on the beach. >> nice job. >> that's all i have to say. all right. >> obviously there's two sides, no doubt about it. you'll aim saying is a lot of these stocks approximate a machine administer run, wells fargo i think earlier this week, a lot of people looking for wells to go down. it's been topping out at 8.5. i think it goes to 24. >> everyone's looking for a correction in the market. the correction in the market, look at goldman sachs. when goldman sachs breaks down that's when the market is going to break down. >> let's move on to our chart of the day. this is an interesting one. transports revving higher nearing a new six-month high. nearly topping out here? it's a confirmation of the rally. >> good news, you saw r.w. baird

initiation earlier this week. think they're late. some of the price targets are outrageous. it could get there if the dow rallied 25%. i don't see it happening, frankly. i think the bni run is owe. i think this level is toppy. that stock i think trades down to the mid 70s. thes where you want to get pack in. some of these stocks have had tremendous runs. i think we're long in the tooth here. >> when you see oreo up, it tips resit dance at 75. oil tech higher, the likes of the fed exs and u.p.s.s who will have difficulties in fuel costs. >> part of that is because fed ex and u.p.s. have stunk it up the last couple of quarters. it's been difficult for them. that's a head wind in their face. they haven't hedged as much as they perhaps could have and should have. none of us bought enough when oil fell down to $40. the airline stocks which is what both those are, fed ex and u.p.s., big airline exposure because of the massive

consumption. i think that's one of the reasons they haven't performed yet. if it pulls back and i'm one of the guys that thinks it goes into the 60s here before it goes to 80, even though we're closer to 80, it pulls into the 60s, crude oil, that's better for u.p.s. and fed ex. >> i was thinking, i wonder what joe's doing with oil here. it crossed my mind. >> maybe for a fleeting second it did. maybe for a fleeting second. if you look at the commodities space, we had a conversation, who's the best commodities trader in 2009? the chinese government. absolutely. why? they recognize what prices deflated. they went in, stocked up on commodities, lifted commodities off the bottom.. if you look at the xwhodties trade, it's about a weakening dollar, absolutely. it's also about a shift. a shift in inventories. you're beginning to see that we are working off existing inconvenient tors without ramping up supply yet. i think the other side, i believe the commodities continue

to pass higher as we march towards the end of the year. i do believe $75 in oil, that may be a low print over the next three months. >> so you're long? >> i am long sun corps, weatherford -- >> the commodity itself? >> in the oil commodity itself action right now what i have is short dated versus long dated contracts. betting on contango to come in. >> let's talk about the consumer here. talking the tape today. shares high on retailers tiffany, higher by 11%. beat analyst estimates, its actual year outlook, it saw a drop in sales about 16%. it was the mix of merchandise which raises some eyebrows. low-end merchandise. tiffany sells low-end merchandise. sterling silver. those things came in higher as opposed to the high-end diamonds, platinum. >> i see that as a positive. >> why? >> everybody wants the blue box as a present. when you buy something cheap, because you're watching your pennies, i think that's why they bought the lower-end stuff. you wait until that cycle kicks

in for the holiday shopping season and that's gold in that box. and diamonds in that box. instead of sterling silver. >> are you setting yourself up for your wife this. >> she's not getting a blue box. she'll get the good stuff in a different box. >> tiffany's, a $24 stock a month ago. $24. i mean, now you've got -- we talked about it. i think we talked about tiffany's, we liked it. now 21, 22 times lower earnings. i don't care you can like it.. is there a short coming? yeah. could it go higher? it may but it will go it without me. i think the valuations don't make sense right now. >> the problem is exactly what we're talking about, everything seems overpriced right now. this rising tide is lifting everything to a level no one wants to step in. the smart guys continue to buy it. you can't leave your computer, you've got to be ready to sell these things when they pop another couple of percent. >> let's move on to the next trade and talk more about that mad dash for trash we've been

seeing. shares of aig, fannie mae, freddie mac choser higher by more than 36%. are investors betting on these names for a rude awakening? joining us, paul miller of fbr capital. i believe that you were in this camp where you also think that these stocks are headed for zero, correct? >> i am not an aig fan. fannie and freddie, a 50 cent price target. theish on is they're into the government by over $100 billion. charge-offs continue to rise. nonperforming assets can't to get very high. there's no value here. a lot of this was caused by the aig stock situation where the stocks off and fire, everybody's looking for them to do the same thng. you're not going to see reverse stocks. the government doesn't need it, doesn't want a lot of value here, the government knows there's no value here. the only reason why the government is they don't want to

put the debt on the government's balance sheet. >> if the government knows the stocks are worth zero, why doesn't the s.e.c. warn people like they did for gm? they're saying the government knows they're worth nothing, not doing anything about it in materials of the investor. >> i can't speak for the s.e.c. or what they're warning. i can tell you given fannie and freddie, the amount into the government, the shares are worth relatively nothing. >> is it compartmentalized? will that sift its way into the rest of the financials and effectively the rest of the market? >> i think it's just those two, relatively speaking. the rest of the financials, they've done much better than i would have anticipated. i'm one of the bears. i do think that even, you know, for the bulls, the stocks are getting way ahead of themselves relative to earnings. some of these are trading at a higher multiple than 2004, 2005. i think everybody's bulled up. all getting excited. now they're trying to justify high prices. the business models change for a lot of these banks.

go back to earnings in 2005, these stocks are looking rich. >> here's the question. is there a scenario where they don't go to zero in your worst case scenario? it hear it could be zero. the truth is a lot can happen with these balance sheets. is there a case where they don't go to zero? >> there's going to be some trading out there. this stock's always going to have some type of value because they're trading they would have to have some type of conclusion with the government on what you're going to do what the business model's going to look like. that's going to take two, three years. we're a long way off trying to find out what type of value f fannie and foreheaddie is going to have. we're in the going to know for a year or two. >> there's irony. remember last year the financials, we banned short selling in select financials.. this is the opposite. maybe we is be banning short squeezers? select financials. this is just the other side of that trade. but yet we're doing nothing

about that. right? >> that's interesting. >> i respect the guy. but i don't think his argument made sense as far as, well, the government doesn't care if the stock goes up. the government owns them. what do you mean the government doesn't care? >> there would be a lot of constituents angry with their congress people if ultimately these stocks go to zero and we poured all that money into it. >> absolutely. >> the government, you said it, the government would let all these investors put money into it and goes to zero? >> i want a short squeeze or an investigation. >> that was the word on the street. next we talk to a member of obama's economic recovery advisory board on the possibility of a double dip recession. then we head to the charts to tell you the next key level to watch. plus john paul overshadowing warren buffett? here's what else is coming up next on "fast." >> is an optimistic market ignoring a possible double dip? a top obama adviser reveals the

forecast from inside the white house. and it's the hottest thing on the street.. and no, we're not talking about viral videos.. it's exploding options activity and here's how to trade itr. a restaurant chain that has hungry patrons and wall street smiling. cracker barrel's ceo spins the tale next.

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welcome back to "fast money," we're live at the market site in new york city's time square. time now for the obama trade. look at that. >> love it. >> it is his favorite. is recovery on track? or are we headed for a double dip recession? obama economic adviser laura tyson joins from us berkeley. laura, it is always great to speak with you. >> thanks, melissa, pleasure. >> you have been quoted a couple of weeks ago saying the most likely outcome for the u.s. economy is a slow recovery with lots of downside risk. what exactly does that look like? >> well, you know, i'm very struck by the conversation that went on in jackson hole a couple of weeks ago, and if you listen to the central bankers there and the economists there and the pundits there, what they were saying was, look. we believe that the recession is over, we believe that the economy has embarked upon a

recovery period. there is the possibility that we have a very weak recovery with continued downside risk is very real. and basically that was the consensus view among people who watched the economy on a regular basis hour by hour and day by day. it hasn't really changed that much when i spoke about it from a couple of weeks ago. >> i'm guessing you think that is the best-case scenario for the economy, you probably think the obama administration is doing everything it can with the stimulus plan, so therefore -- what will push us over, what will push us away? >> you know, it's not just the obama administration, it's the obama administration and administrations around the world and the central banks around the world. i think we have to recognize that the recovery that the u.s. economy has entered and that recoveries around the world are reliant on a huge amount of fiscal and monetary support. a huge amount, unprecedented amount of fiscal stimulus in the united states, unprecedented amount of stimulus in china,

unprecedented actionspy central banks who have dramatically increased the size of their balance sheets and are running zero interest policies and aren't walking away from that. they're saying we don't think there is enough evidence yet to pull back on all this monetary support. and i think that's a very strong message. >> laura, i've got a quick question for you. by the way, i love berkeley, my dad is golden bear, so is my brother. >> terrific. >> i'll be up there for a game this year, probably washington state. anyway, my question for you is as far as the recovery, don't you think some sort of credit to small business tax credit to small business to do some hiring would help turn the employment data around quicker than this long, drawn-out stimulus that most of which isn't going to be spent well into 2010? >> well, actually, i think i would say that the stimulus, the major effect of the stimulus by design and actually it's playing out this way is this quarter and next quarter and going into the first quarter of next year.

so right now, we are at a point in time where we're getting the biggest effects. and, you know, i think that's one of the reasons why the economy is going to be so strong in the second half of 2009. we have inventory rebuild going on, we have strong fiscal stimulus coming in, and we have the monetary authorities essentially standing pat on a very accommodative policy. i think it's important to say that one of the things about any policy proposal right now is we really do have to get more information about how the economy is performing. and we've just entered a period where it looks like we are beginning to recover. let's get some more information from the real economy about what's happening here. >> dr. tyson, it's joe, i've got to ask you a question. because you are a presidential adviser. don't you think it's time for wall street and obama to bury the hatchet? how come obama has not come to wall street and visited with us yet? do you think he should? >> well, i didn't know there was a hatchet. i am involved in wall street and

i certainly would not say there was a hatchet. i think one should recognize -- i talked about monetary and fiscal stimulus, let's take the stress test here, let's take the fact that essentially -- and i wasn't a supporter, i was a skeptic about the stress test. what has happened here is with the help of the administration and with the help working oftentimes with the fed, we have brought private capital back into the market. it has been a set of policies that have been very favorable to wall street. in fact, the low interest rate policy is behind a lot of the trading that's going on right now. so i just -- i didn't think there was a hatchet, truthfully. >> can i take that as, yes, president obama will be coming to wall street soon? >> maybe we should just examine whether there is a hatchet, or not. i would hope there wasn't one and the more there's a recognition that the administration is doing whatever it can to build the basis for a strong economic recovery. and it has and looks like that

it's working certainly in terms of catching the economy in a free fall and bringing it back to life. i think that's the -- that's what the administration can do for the real economy. >> or maybe president obama could just come on "fast money." >> the invitation is always open as it is for you, laura, always a pleasure to have you with us. >> maybe next time you should do at cal bears game. >> sounds good. >> i'm there. >> take care, everybody. >> thank you. >> all right, guys. obama's policy is good -- joe, you brought up the question, sounds like you have some doubts. >> i have so. is there a hatchet? yeah, there clearly has been a problem between wall street and president obama's administration. that is what it is. and if the economy's improving, if the markets are improving, and we do have this regulation coming, i'd like to see president obama come to wall street, sit down with the leaders of wall street and figure out how to navigate our way through this process. >> let's move on to the next trade. time for whale watching,

reports john paulson's buying shares of citi group. could paulson be replacing warren buffett as the most watched big time investor. you're nodding. >> absolutely he is. >> why? >> warren buffett's a brilliant man, done a great job investing. but warren buffett gets terms none of the rest of us can get. john paulson is buying stocks you and i can buy at the same level. rather than getting a deal where i get a 10% dividend from goldman sachs and additional calls, you know, we'll call it converts on that trade, paulson's in here buying citi shares, he was in there just buying bank america shares and so forth. thes a completely different investor, that's a lot more like you and me. >> paulson, this is who the mutual funds are watching, the hedge funds are watching, this is the new warren buffett of our lifetime right here. >> and the one thing he's doing right here no one's talking about, buying gold. keep that in mind, gold is slow hi raising. so wlil we do talk about citi, bank of america, goldman sachs,

keep your eye on what he's doing and thinking in terms of inflation. >> do you ever, guy, look at these guys and say that guy's buying that so i'm in too? >> well, i think it's cool he's buying this stuff, but you don't know what he's selling on the other side. he could have options positions against it. he could be out of these positions entirely, you have no idea. so if you follow these guys, you basically do it with a grain of salt because there could be a lot of other things going on. >> we talked about that one when all of those were coming out that we do not know how they're hedging these positions. so buyer beware if you're going to follow these whales into these stocks. and that brings us to our "fast money" poll of the day. "poll action." >> don't say that. >> i haven't said it here in weeks. tonight's question. who is the best wall street whale to follow? a, warren buffett, b, bill alaskaman, c, david einhorn. d, john paulson. fastmoney@cnbc.com, tell us what you think. was today the start of the correction? our viewers think so. take a look at this. 70% of you saying a reality check lies ahead. but what do the charts say?

let's go to greg tracoli, director of technical research at opaleski joins us from the magical center of englewood cliff. >> hey, melissa, i think my ear piece was broken. did i hear you say earlier instead of thinking about your next cocktail on the beach thinking of joe and what he thought about oil? is that right? >> i didn't say it was an either/or with the cocktail, i said it crossed my mind, let's clarify. >> it's only human, greg. >> obviously. >> did you catch me rolling my eyes? i did. what do you see in the markets? >> again, we've been talking about the 21-day moving line, it's still positive. it's only been in a negative slope for eight days since march. this is what keeps me honest in the market. this is what keeps me from second-guessing. the momentum, the bullishness is still there. it doesn't mean we can't have a quick draft below that, but that is how i lead into what i wanted to talk about today and that's protecting profits, right? joe focused on goldman sachs. you look at goldman sachs, i recommended it on november 21st when it was trading down, four

days later it was 80, and it has a look back. look at the momentum in this stock. you have bank of america going from 4 up to around 18. the amount of profits in the last five months have been absolutely outstanding. what i say about goldman, same type of look in the chart. you've got the positive moving average line. price action looks different. decent. a little bit of a high or topping pattern here. but protect your profits at this point. goldman got above 160, put a stop in at 157, doesn't mean you have to liquidate your whole position, but if the market starts to come off and people start to become skittish, we'll have a pretty good downdraft in a very quick way. why leave profits on the table? take 30% of that and put a protective stop on it. i would put it at 157 close only if it closes below. take some profits off the table, that will never hurt you. we look at another recommendation that i put out on july 8th. and that was general electric. i recommended buying it at 10.75, i said it would go to 16,

it's gotten up to 14.90. stopped short a little bit of my objective, it's backed off a little bit, backing and filling. i would put a stop under 13. again, these have been incredible profits in a short period of time. >> greg, you mentioned protecting your profits on goldman. john, how is implied doing for these stocks, goldman in particular? and therefore the prices on the options? >> it's very cheap right now. you can buy protection a lot cheaper than you could just two months ago, for instance. forget about the highs of last year, it's just cheap right now. so exactly what greg's saying, i agree 100% with greg, with joe, with anybody else who thinks that you should sleep soundly by having a put or having some insurance in your portfolio. i do it, that's how i sleep soundly, and i think it works for everybody if you just take advantage of what the market's giving you. >> okay. greg's still there. >> greg. quick question for you, steve grasso, i remember you said you were going to be a hesitant buyer if we burst through the

1,015 level on the s&p. where do you see the next trouble zone? my client thinks we can go from 1,075 to 1,100. >> the 1,100 area, 1,123, is a 50% retracement of the entire loss from 2007 down to the march low. so we came recently within 90 points of that, we know that we're up near the upper end of this move. we started at around 660, now up above 1,000, around 1,120, that's a 50% retracement. so guys, we can't get too freedy here, we have to watch it. we'll watch it week in and week out. we'll let you know if we see something, if we have an explosion in the up side in the next week, that may be a blowoff period, i'll take a look at that point. to take a short at that point. know within the next 90 points, we've made 50% of the losses within the last six months of the last year and a half. >> all right, greg, thanks so much. remember, of course, pigs get slaughtered. the old adage on wall street. >> actually, hogs. >> hogs, that's right. i knew i missed.

>> because i'm a pig. >> i always mix up my swine. time now to head to our prop desk. our traders here on this desk. i can't remember where you were, guy. up bright and early this morning in order to catch a glimpse on their favorite star. she performed on this morning's "today" show. ♪ guy's rocking out here on the "today" show. that's why he's not here. that's you. >> that's what? >> that's a great move. >> of course, everybody was there for research purposes, attempting to see how they could -- >> is that why keith called in sick? >> i think so. you have to get up bright and early to get a good spot on the the plaza. tell you that much. this isn't often overlooked, but a powerful sector of the population, of course we're talking about the tweens. do you guys believe in the power of the -- i think they are still getting their allowances even if parents are cutting back. >> it is a powerful group, no doubt, especially in this back to school session. they're one of our pops in specific.

i'll talk about it now. palli capital who i respect a lot upgraded the stock. peace sign is the name that fits into this whole mode. it's a $3.fwe stock. it may get there, but that's one you might want to watch. pretty big short interest. valuation to me doesn't make sense. makes sense to palli. that's one place you want to look. >> and disney runs those commercials all day long for miley cyrus, the jonas brothers, my two daughters can't help but watch it. and they don't run commercials for anybody else on that channel. so i guess it does well for them feeding into all of the rest of the ways they sell. >> okay. there you have it, the tween trade. coming up next we've got the ceo of a company that's breaking in profits on the trade down trend. can the stock continue on its 41% runoff? or is it time to sell? we'll be back right after this. hey, it's me, water. did you know that when you filter me at home

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welcome back to "fast money." time for pop stock. we look at a stock that has been popping as consumers look for an affordable meal. shares of restaurant chain cracker barrel up almost 40% this year. analysts are loving this casual diner. joining us is cracker barrel president and ceo. mike woodhouse on the fast line. mr. woodhouse, always a pleasure to speak with you. >> hi, melissa, pleasure to speak with you and thanks for r the opportunity.

we're very excited about our brand and we're getting ready to celebrate our 40th anniversary here. >> on monday. exact. okay. let's talk about how your is to be has been climbing. part of that is,s, no discounting, none of the smaller portions that a lot of your competitors have embarked on. how much longer can you keep that up to offset the decline we've seen in consumer spending? >> well, we think we're doing a pretty good job. the reason we're doing that is we're staying true to our brand, which is all about value, always has been for the last 40 years. we're running ahead of naptrack, the major restaurant index, have been for about three years in n terms of guest traffic. and we've been improving even more in the last seven or eight months. >> mr. woodhouse, the stock's been a monster, i think you u opened three new stores last quarter, i think 11 for the year, coming to your fiscal fourth quarter, what's your growth plans for next year if you can talk about that? >> we're only going to open seven stores next year, we think in this environment we've got to be cautious about where we go with new stores, and

we're very focused on the performance of new stores. as we start to move out of the recession, we're going to consider returning to a more normalized growth. >> where will you be opening the new stores? are you going to go out of the i-95 corridor you've been in? >> well, we're in a lot of corridors, a lot of interstates. that's the history of the company. our strength is in travel and on the interstate and our new stores next year are going to be in fairly traditional cracker barrel sites. >> guys? >> i traced a fair valuation, 10 times forward earnings, done a great job, the stock's not rich, probably a decent shortage out there, but the tape, i think the stock can continue to go higher. >> and room to move prices up p too. and that's what they've been doing this year. i think he continues to do that at a slow pace, but they continue to move up prices versus their competitors that are $2 or $3 a plate higher. and i like this one like buffalo wild wings. they continue to do well because they offer value. i think that's what the consumer

wants, especially theirs. >> mr. woodhouse, one last question before we let you go. your ability to raise prices is partly because you have started off at a low base. at what point do you say, you know what, entrees above $12, we don't want to go there. >> we're very happy with our pricing. we're able to take price in this environment, the competition, especially the casual diners, are having to discount their product. do buy one and get one and those kind of things to even maintain a weaker traffic than we are. so we feel that we're in the right place from a pricing point of view. >> mr. woodhouse, thanks for your time. happy anniversary. >> you could shop with mrs. najarian in there as well as eat. >> nice pies i hear. >> you can put it in a blue box. >> you can put it in a blue box. >> a gift certificate in a blue box. the stocks are making extreme moves this week. time for pops and drops. harper financial is up 17% on the week. grasso? >> i'm going to say stay away from it. i know it's going to haunt me. i don't feel good about the level it's at right now. >> citigroup was up, 11% pop this week. joe?

>> steve grasso told you to buy it, citigroup looks great, 523, the charts look good. i agree with john. something's going to happen further here. >> hgsi, human genome. the call activity was extraordinary today. >> yeah, it's been heavy for the last two weeks, really. hgsi, human genome up, this stock. five-fold since july. lupus is one of the reasons. also takeover rumors with glaxo smith-kline. i've lightened up almost 100% of our long. >> they exist only because intel would be a monopoly if they didn't. they got an upgrade earlier and intel helped them today. but this is a stock i would not be a buyer of, no. >> and we had a drop for dead beat, tax evaders that is. take heed if you're watching out there. the "wall street journal" reporting state tax departments are starting to scour the web when hunting down detbeats behind on their tacks. next time you get a facebook

friend request or a poke, it may be the irs hunting you down. imagine being poked by the irs. terrifying. >> or for not paying the irs -- >> not the kind of poke you want. coming up next, we head to the options bid and give you the top name to play as obama's health care reform continues to stall. the commodity is up in the six of the last seven weeks. is it setting up for a break out or breakdown?

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welcome back, stocks losing ground today after a big run-up in the last month as health care reform ran into more road blocks. is it a buying opportunity? let's see what the options market says. scott nations is an option action contributor also president of nation shares. scott, nice to see you in the flesh. >> good to be here. >> what are the options markets pricing in terms of health care and reform? >> the option markets have said that obama care is dead. but you know what happens if everybody comes back from the break and gets chesty, that we're going to go ahead and pass something, that gives us an opportunity. and some of these health care options are incredibly cheap, specifically j & j, you can buy the october 5565 strangle in j & j, spend less than 1% of the price of the stock and have that strangle in case something does happen, in case we have something that works out with

obamacare, and i get to be long options during september and october when i want to be long options. so two good things that can make that trade work. >> now, the implied has come out on jnj has come out so options are cheaper. how about the hmo stocks that might be a little bit more interference with their run-ups if we see some reform pass? >> you're right, jnj options are historically really cheap and often for a reason. but the insurers are still pretty pricey. some of the pharma names are not so pricey, but you really have to step up to the plate if you're going to buy options on some of the insurers for the very reason that the options are expensive because we don't know what's going to happen and they are the ones that are going to have their ox gored. if obamacarapaces. >> i agree with you, scott, and keep an eye on wellpoint, aetna, and unh because i -- and i know you are, scott. >> yeah. >> you can bet if we come back from the break and the congress is really bullish about this that those stocks are going to get clocked. and that's when you buy them just like you're saying. if you're already long the put,

you can make some money on that drop. >> but you've got to be brave to step up and buy those options. those options are expensive. >> scott, always great to see you. see you later tonight, in fact. because you won't want to miss -- >> at 8:30, "options action" new time. >> as guy said, 8:30 tonight. >> 7:30 central. >> 7:30 central says the man from chicago. coming up next, the call on the retailer has them down 10%. what should be your next move on that stock? we'll break down the trade right after this. i'm here on this tiny little plane, and guess what...

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as the dow went on an eight-day winning streak, our traders had their own winning trade. tried to keep you quicker than the ticker. >> you want to buy oil when global supply is basically peaking, right, that's what we're seeing right now. what names are going to go up? >> the governor filing an oil service name that hit pay dirt as crude rallied 16%, occidental petroleum was the better way to play. up 18%. >> credit swiss also talked approximate a western stein piece on july 6th, they talk about a pc upgrade cycle and

dell would be the big winner. dell to me is interesting >> the negotiator directing you towards dell. the pc maker popping 5% after last night's earnings and running up 25% since the analysis. >> july, total vehicle sales up 2.3% and guess what ford did today? it went down, that tells you it's time to get off this ford trade and move to the sideline. that's the important take away from today. >> the liquidator believing this cash for clunker bounce was due for a correction. as the government program came to a close and investors took profits, the stock sank 8%. >> you just heard the guy from mgm talking about the rooms are filling up and he's right, but the reason you bet on the place is right now they're filling up the rooms, but they're shopping the people are. because the deals that are available, they're shopping, they're not gambling in the casinos. so if you don't think the casinos have up side, i think they've got lots of up side. >> and finally the monster hitting the jackpot with mgm. after getting an upgrade at goldman sachs, it paid off

rallying 15%, leaving us with two words to sum it up. "fast money." time for the fast fire, we kick it off with the negotiator, he says stay away from j. crew. we not the earnings. the stock was up more than 10%. >> my bad on the timing. >> i think you can short j. crew, valuations don't make sense. i think you can short jcg, sorry. >> all right. july 22nd, the governor steered you away from amd, but after getting an upgrade at citi, the stock was up 26%. steve? >> my customers still not buying the stock. i think the whole market went up, i would still be staying away from amd. >> back on july 6th, the monster staying away from the favorite, we're talking about regis, but after declaring a dividend and amending the number of credit facilities the stock was up 22%. >> well, it's the parent company of the hair club for men, i'm not a member, so i'm still staying away. >> finally the liquidator, but buying pea body energy. after guiding low estimates for

the quarter, the stock sank 7%. joe? >> what we're going to do is risk one more dollar on the trade, put a stop in it, get out. >> final trade after this. ñ

final trade, joe? >> china. >> cracker barrel. >> apple. >> dr. jay. >> citigroup. >> i'm melissa lee, have a terrific weekend. upbeat rock ♪ singer:wanted to get myself a new cell phone ♪

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