company today. ubs raised its earnings per share from 25% to 20%. they also increased their '09 end year target for the ftse euro by 10%. they're now looking at a level of 1100 by tend of the year. let's show you the currency boards and the currency crosses this morning look like this so a little more quiet versus yesterday. we had a lot of focus on the ism data that was out, too, and today, of course, the big nonfarm barrel data, the big data of them all. we're anticipating a drop somewhere in the region of 25,000 which would be the best drop we've seen since this past august, a year ago, that is. christine, how are you? >> i'm good for a friday.

initially, earlier, there was a lot of euphoria ahead of that. in the end, caution set in. indian markets kind of finished mixed. the nikkei 225 is down 0.3%. the shanghai market up 0.6%. markets there getting a bit of a lift after the banking regulator toned down its requirement on banks. the sensex bombay is up 0.6%. in terms of crude oil, this is how the picture is looking. right now, nymex light sweet crude is trading around the ranges of $68.49 a barrel. and brent is ticking higher in line with what nymex is doing, $67.54 a barrel. and mike, it's all about jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. >> yeah, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. and yeah, we could be on track to build a new winning streak after snapping the four-day losing streak for the markets yesterday. but obviously, there's a lot of

time here between now and 8:30 new york time. all betts could be off with the rally of sorts in equities here yesterday. we did see the price of the treasury note go down and the yield go many. that trend continues at 3.26%. with the ten-year 2/-note, that yield is creeping up at 3.36%. the big story remains gold, though. gold is up $44 over the last three trading sessions, that ending yesterday or almost 5% as investors seem to take safe haven here, although they are giving that up a little bit this morning. it was almost at $1,000 yesterday, now sitting at $986.65. we did see a turn around in the price of gold yesterday.

it was doing the same thing yet and it went up to almost $1,000. it is the first friday of the month, so the united states government will release the all-important jobs report at 8:30 new york time. jobs are expected to decline following 47,000 loss in july. it would be the longest losing streak since the great depression. but if this forecast holds up, if it's accurate, it would be the smallest monthly decline in a year. the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 9.5% and average hourly earnings are seen rising by 0.2%. >> and continuing in that vain and the impact that could have on the market, stephen pope is joining us and kim do, head of asian multi assets from baring

asset management. stephen, with you, in your notes, you say don't be a bleeding heart liberal over the issue of unemployment. sure, it's dreadful to see so much unemployment is there but there has to be the great shakeout that main street needed, that this has to be it. >> yes. we know today's number is going to be shocking to those affected. however, we're in a position where u.s. corporates have gotten themselves in such a lean position, that they are in a position where they can respond. any increase in revenue goes straight to the bottom line. but it's a question of there will be no hiring until we've sweated the existing assets, existing labor force and built up every use. it's about 63% of existence. and only then when you start to see people wanting to go and pick up -- and it's not a question of hiring for the same

old industries. the whole game has to be raised as the u.s. and the west works into an evaluated site. >> kim, can we have a recovery without having a job recovery? >> we have seen that in the past, yes. i think that we can, yes. >> and how would that come about? i mean, in terms of what's the time frame and -- i mean, we're looking at one out of ten people more or less being without a job both stateside as well as in europe and many places. >> i think what we have to focus is those that are fortunate enough to have jobs, they have built up higher savings, especially in the u.s. and europe and the uk. so we think that once they feel comfortable that the employment situation has stabilized, then i think that they will go out and

spend or use up some of those savings and spend. so we think that that will -- that, coupled with the fact that inventories at the retail and many factory levels have been run down quite substantially over the last six to 12 months. so that inventories would have to be rebuilt. and if that comes about with a little bit more spending by those who actually did have a job, then that will mean that the recovery will be able to -- to show some growth. and so i think that that is what the markets are pricing in right now. >> kim, this is mike huckman in the states. but you make it sound kind of like consumer spending is going to rebound when we have the likes of joseph stiglett saying that the risk of a double dip, at least here in the united states, is still there.

>> i'm glad that people are talking about a double dip, actually. because i think the more they talk about it, then the more the policymakers will be concerned about it and will bear that in mind. so that means that the amount of stimulus which had been ee injected into the economy will remain at least for the next six to 12 months. that means that this will underline and support the recovery even further. so i think that that is good that people are talking about terrific. and st more people that talk about risk, the more the policymakers will be able to continue to maintain the stimulus in the system. and what is what markets like and that is why i think that that is why we are seeing markets making new highs, especially equity markets.

>> and stephen, should we be looking along the headline numbers when the jobs numbers come out today? isn't it about what people earn? >> it's not just productivity and efficiency, but what is being paid to those people who are still currently employed? are they seeing the average workweek move up, etcetera? is there a sense that we need to do that? a break down in the nonfarm payroll number. what sectors in the economy are we losing jobs? there's a lot more than just the

headline grabbing number that comes at 8:30. >> when you say equity markets are driving higher, how would you explain the spike we're seeing in the gold price, then? >> gold prices, as you may appreciate, it's like gold has done practically nothing this year. whereas we have seen a commodity in a number of missiles. oil has done well this year on the year-to-date basis. but gold hasn't done very much. and yet the u.s. dollar has been weakening all year this year. so i think the price of the move in gold is a lag move. so i do expect gold to go higher. >> stephen, what do you think, do you agree with what kim was saying? and would you buy gold at these levels? >> i think as long as it's trading a little bit, you can

have a safe reason to play it. but every time we've tried to go over the 1,000 hurdle, it's been backed away more. as the economic performance starts to improve and you have a phased gentle reduction on government stimulus to allow the private sector the scope and the room to maneuver and take the economy forward, then gold will fall back. there have been so many gold bugs around and they aren't any richer than they were five years ago. stephen pope, thank you so much and thank you so much, as well, kim do, joining us out of hong kong. now is not the time to exit, that's the message from the president of the ecb. jean-claude trichet said that the recovery will be rather uneven. the ecb has an exit strategy ready to put into action, but the central bank may raise interest rates before fully

withdrawing extra liquidity. >> we have introduced exceptional measures and exceptional circumstances and we will rewind that when the situation returns to normal and rationale. >> trichet's comments come a day after the ecb left interest rates on hold and raised its growth forecast for the euro zone during 2010. g-20 finance ministers are ascending on lobbed as we speak for the summit in pittsburgh which takes place later this month. policymakers are expected to promise to keep economic support packages in place until recovery is certain. they'll seek to reassure financial markets that they have credible plans to withdraw stem ewe husband packages when appropriate. and the much-heat the debate over putting curb on financials pay will be in the spotlight.

they need to convince the u.s. on the need to regulate bankers' pay. >> they have a very clear position concerning bonuses, for instance, which was always a triggering factor for possible disagreement or views between particularly the uk and the rest of europe. i certainly hope now that prime minister brown has signed up, that we will all be speaking from the same voice. >> meanwhile, uk chancellor alistair darling, the finance minister, says that although bonuses should not be guaranteed, they should be given when earned. >> i believe that we can be confident about our prospects for 2010. but remember, there are still uncertainties, there are still risks. >> we have to confront. perhaps one of the biggest risks is to think that the job is done, that recovery is guaranteed. no country can be complacent and we've all got to see this through.

>> and here in asia, china's foreign regulator has announced new draft rules for its foreign investor program. it said the rules would increase transparency in the system and help china attract capital in the long run. the upward limit for individual institutions will be raised from $1 billion to the current $800 million. elsewhere, toshiba shares slid on news that it may bid $5.4 million for a new clear unit. reuters say that toshiba will be bidding against companies including el strom and snyder electric. french economy minister christine lagarde says that she hopes areva will choose a buyer by the end of the year. and areva shares up 2.8% at 390.2. japan's piwah securities is reportedly looking to buy out

its investment banking partner, sumitomo mitts financial group. the daiwa may need to fork out $2.2 million to buy out smfg's stake in the jv. the fate of this is it has been in question since earlier this year. shares of both companies ended the session in the red today. daiwa securities down 6.1%. smfg down 2.1%. mike. >> thanks, christine. now it's expected the u.s. government has proposed a tougher seft of international and liquidity requirements for banks. treasury secretary tim geithner says new rules are needed to reduce the risk of another global financial crisis. the plan calls for higher capital levels at all banks, constraints on leverage, and strict by flexible regulations. the proposal will be a key topic of discussions at this weekend's

meeting of g-20 finance ministers in london. although no agreement is expected to come out of that meeting. >> president obama is moving ahead with a dmentic agenda, hoping to have congress pass key legislation this fall. white house economic adviser david axlerod says that the president will use a new prime time speech next wednesday to spell out exactly what he wants on health care reform. he wants that wrapped up before he takes an aggressive stance on halt i halting to climate change. and as always, you can get more news, videoes and blogs on today's market-moving news on cnbc.com. louisa. >> coming up on "worldwide exchange," the odds of a robust recover are very, very weak. we'll look at the possibility of

a double dip recession. plus, going for gold as stocks cool off, gold is set for its strongest weekly rally since april. dndq

welcome back. on to equity market roundup, we are joined by becky, patricia, stephane and in their regions. becky, what type of a month have we seen so far? >> illustrate would seem the only way is up for the equity markets this morning. tuesday was the first trading day we had for the week here in the uk, but tuesday, wednesday, thursday were all negative. we did lose some 2.3% over those days. we're about 0.9% higher in today's session. looking at the biggest gainers for the market, metal and mining stocks are leading the way

higher. one of the issues here is that the gold price has been picking up, touching that $1,000 level. and that's having a positive impact for the start on the like of london kazakhmy's. further down, some of the stocks you can't see but that are also really strong in this session, we see the likes of xstrata, rio tinto is putting in a strong performance today. we should note that the banking stocks are fairly strong, as well. we've seen this theme coming through in the states in yesterday's session, too. banking stocks are looking fairly upbeat, really, and that's happening again today, the likes of lloyd's adding about over 4%, in fact. rbs about 2.75% higher, not far behind are barclay's and hsbc. crucially, all of those stocks are gaining by more than the markets. we should be watching ahead, just a note to the next week. bank of england meeting is due next week, so watch out for that one. patricia, how is it looking in germany?

>> well, the dax is up about 0.8% at the moment. but nothing on volumes. about 16.5 million shares traded, but solid as a rock definitely today for daimler. up about 3.5% followed by deutsche and commerzbank by hsbc upgrading the price target. our financials are doing a little better. and then the usual suspects, really, on the downside, such as volkswagen down about 1.2%. why is daimler trading higher? we heard bulis comments coming through from the boss of daimler ahead of the err. we are likely to hear a lot more noise with regard to the car companies, the err is one of the biggest trade fares in that sector out here in frankfurt. and he said that basically savings targets for 2009 have been not only met, but are likely to be above that, that 2010 should look better than those figures than in 2009.

however, the crisis is not over, but no more job cuts are expected, either. simply because they have been included into the main dax as of today after about six months of having been dropped out. as you can see over the last six months, infineon is up about 735. that's franks further for you. let's see how life is in france now with stephane. >> well, drive my car is the song that the ceo of peugeot t citron is singing to mitsubishi. this today, the speculation is driving the stock much higher. the old car sector is doing well today in paris. also in focus, eads ahead of the

wto ruling later today regarding the airbus subsidies in europe. yesterday the wall street schedule on that is reporting that the ruling likely will conclude that europe and government subsidize airbus and the ceo believed that is still airbus as a very strong case. also in focus in morning, areva is a strong company. the chinese fund could take a steak in the company. it's not secret in france that the company is looking for cash to finance its future development. the stock is still up 2.7%. over to adam now in singapore for a quick view on the asian markets. >> thank you very much, stephane. let's pick up on the japanese blue chip stocks in particular with toshiba as stephane was just alluding to. 5.4 billion u.s. dollars. in terms of the market reaction, if you look at the blue chip, toshiba shares did end the day down here.

there's still concerns about toshiba's balance sheets after it was recorded huge, huge lows in its chip division. it wants to shift focus away from that to long-term growth. it is heavily indebted after purchasing resting house in 2006. also, every time the equity market does drop their portfolio investments and broke regulars were in focus. daiwa losing ground today after it may be buying up its joint venture in the investment banking continue. the market that we saw a lot of thriller out of today was the greater china region, actually. take a look at the hong kong markets, ending the day higher by 2.8%. the h-share index up by 2.9%. late in the trading day at about

2:00 p.m. singapore time, the chinese regulator relaxed some of the rules for the qii investment program, increasing the capital from $800 million and reducing the lockup period to three months from some ininvestors to the original 12 months. as a result of that, we saw a strong session late in the trading session for the chinese listed bank on the h-shares more so than the h-shares over in china. on that note, christine, it's back to you. not a bad session for the equity markets. coming up next on "worldwide exchange," india attempts to re-energize global trade talks in new deli. but is this last ditch to rescue the doha a futile exercise? >> and unemployment for 1.3 americans will be running out at the end of the year. hahahahahaha

sdwloo. i'm mike huckman in the united states. in the united states, the economy may be showing signs of

improvement, but not enough to keep companies from cutting jobs. >> i'm christine tan in asia. >> hello, everybody, i'm louisa bojesen. german finance ministers plan to meet to talk exit strategy and bankers' bonuses. the last day of the week. we initially saw a bounce on our markets as indicated here by a broad based market index. a lot of buying in basic resources, buying in some of the financials in today's session talking about one of the companies having an impact in the ftse 100 this morning. the xetra dax up now by almost 1% along with the uk market. the cac 40 and the smi a little further behind, but not by much, though. the currency markets, a lot of focus on today's data.

the nonfarm barrel data tends to see a lot of volatility surrounding it. we're looking for a consensus estimate somewhere in the region of 225,000 jobs to the down side. that would be the best reading since last august, august of '08 if indeed that holds true. of course, also, we're still digesting what was said by trichet yesterday. that was not quite in the stage of easing the quantitative measures that have been taking place. the finance ministers' meeting is kicking off today in london, as well. christine, hi. >> it's a friday and it's all about jobs. that's keeping asian rather cautious. we did get some earlier lift from better than expected retail sales in the u.s. the nikkei 225 finished down 0.3%. the kospi finishing down 0.3%. the shanghai composite getting a

lift after the market. and the hang seng getting a late boost, almost 2.8% higher after china ups limits by stock investors, trading up 1.1%. mike, overall, a pretty mixed picture here in asia ahead of that jobs data in the u.s. >> yeah. so it's five hours, christine, until the opening bell, but more importantly, obviously, it is just four hours until we get that jobs number. at this point, it does look like we could be building a new win streak here in the open, but obviously everything could change depending on what those numbers say at 8:30 new york time. let's move on to the treasury market where we with saw prices go down and the yield up. at 3.36%. but the big story remains what's going on in gold. it's settled at about a

six-month high yesterday. but at least for now, it is pulling back down at $986.85 an ounce. but obviously, that, too, is probably going to have a swift reaction to the jobs number, as well. christine, back over to you. >> hey, mike. ayesha faridi joins us now live from mumbai. hello, ayesha. >> hi. thanks very much for that, christine. sudden bump up for the markets coming in after quite a lackluster session right now. innering closer to that 46.50 odd mark for the nifty right now. 15,570 plus is where the sensex is standing and the broader markets are firming up a little bit. and you have a whole host of these midcap themes playing out as the pocket has been looking very strong. you have the festive demand coming up, so a lot of these interesting midcap plays are actually picking up in trade.

rt, a carmaker was has details out, as well. and it was real estate amongst the real estate measures in talks with mtn will be closing soon so that counter is holding up. they have a lot of these liquid boys which are holding up in trade, as well. a couple of these midcap i.t. pockets have been in trade for the past one month or so. so some bit of breather. but the only concern seems to be the volumes that we've been seeing for the past two trades. the volumes are just about hovering around 50% of the average volumes right now. so there is a bit of some sense of lack of participation that we are seeing. the new delhi meet is on the way. with that, it's back to you.

>> ayesha, thank you very much for that, ee aye eesh ya faridi, live from mumbai. 35 trade ministers are gathered in new delhi to star the new round of doha negotiations. outside the meeting, farmer groups are protesting the talk, saying it will only benefit the rich while the poor suffers. united states the second day of talks today. frank, good to have you with us. first of all, let me start with, you know, the last push ended in failure. we have new governments installed in washington. do you think it will help to make things a success this time around? >> well, the door is open, i'll say this, but it's going to require some boldness, most likely to washington. india just doesn't have the economic weight to bring success all by itself. but if washington were prepared to make a bold move, yeah, we could reenergy stocks. >> what kind of bold move have

you looking for? >> more flexibility and aural price supports is what most people want from the united states. there's not a lot of cards to play, but there are a few. >> do you think the global economy is going to impair talks? >> yeah, i do. i don't think that -- i don't think the climate is favorable, frankly. i think it's very difficult for leadership in this kind of environment to move boldly on trade. and i'd say president obama has not given any signals that he has appetite for movement on trade. so it's difficult to be optimistic, frankly, looking at these talks. >> frank, hi. it's louisa in london. why do you think he hasn't given any talks? it's a super important issue. >> well, i think intellectually, i think he would agree that trade is a tool to create economic growth. but trade, for him, would

involve moving against one of his core constituencies. when president bush left office, president bush left three trade agreements in the in box for barack obama. columbia, panama and korea. so obama just hasn't displayed a willingness to engage on these issues. >> frank, i would be interested to gauge your thoughts on india's role in this and especially now that we're looking at the indian elections. does this mean that they have an additional area of flexibility to play with? >> i think they do. i think they do. look, i have a lot of respect for the previous minister, but he did respect a rural district. he didn't seem to be going as aggressively on trade as one could. the new team now has a election mandate and they can probably move better, but look, india is not going to move alone. even if india were to move

alone, it does not have the economic mass to get the track on track. india could move in conjunction with brazil or could perhaps work with china, but it's going to have to be a multi party deal to get the trade round going again. >> frank, this is mike huckman in the states. as christine mentioned in the setup, we're seeing thousands of farmers protest outside these meetings. so how crucial, how big is the indian agricultural market for american farmers? >> well, i don't think that is the point. i think the point is that the indian policy is overwhelmingly a rural and a poor agricultural based policy. so farmers say it carries enormous weight and in point of fact, if they liberalize that some imports, it would not have a major dislocation effect, but the fear of dislocation, i think, runs throughout that

agricultural community. so i think all of this shows that the indian government, if they are going to move, they're going to move slowly and incrementally. they don't have the appetite for the boldness that it requires. >> yeah, but one of the reasons for all of the indian farmers' unrest is due to the drought that they're experiencing. and i know there is a controversial subject, but isn't the goal to increase the yield of crops worldwide, not just in india, but everywhere? >> sure. what we have to do is have a growing manufacturing and service sector in india so that the rural population can shrink naturally and we've got a industrial workforce that continues to grow. people will have a better life and we won't have that political pressure. but as long as we have a poor

number of farms in india, it's going to be difficult. if you invest biotalk in that, it is a risk to the alternative. the manufacturing sector is growing, but it's not quite at the point yet where it can absorb large people off the farms. >> what can we hope to see out of these talks? >> maybe we'll see a symbolic move by india and the u.s. that would be a nice gesture. >> frank, thank you. frank lavin for under secretary international trade here in the united states. this is the first friday of the month, so that means one thing, that the u.s. government will release the all important jobs report at 8:30 this morning.

nonfarm payrolls are forecast to drop by 225,000 in august. if this forecast hold up, if the numbers are accurate, it would be the smallest monthly decline in a year. the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 9.5% and average hourly earnings are seen rising by 0.2%. joining us now is rob carnell, chief international economist at ing. rob, thanks for being here. you think today's number could be as high as 290,000, correct me if i am wrong. why so far ahead of the consensus? >> i don't think any of the consensus really has the first idea what payrolls are going to do in any single month. if you look at the spread out there, it's pretty wide. i would agree with the general tone that the labor market is getting better.

if you look at the monthly data, it seems to be improving. challenge the mass layoffs, the initial claims figures suggests that the labor market, while it's deteriorating at a lower pace, let's say that. does that tell you anything about what payrolls are going to do? >> frankly, it doesn't. the numbers have the whipsawing around. but the trend is, it's getting better, but it's still pretty slow and it's still pretty bad. rob, we're beginning to see more. so many people have been out of work for so long, they're beginning to lose their benefits. in addition, the wall street journal today is talking about the fact that even prime borrowers, people that have prime mortgages and have lost their jobs are beginning to have

serious trouble making ends meet and that could cause another leg down for the banks, as well. what's your take on all of that? the labor market is going to make it difficult for this economy to put in sustained growth ahead. the duration of unemployment is now up to something like 25 weeks unemployment. it's getting longer every month. it's getting lower at a slightly stronger pace. that has to be good news, it has to be good news for those mortgage-backed securities and the whole ream of toxic assets that have based off that. we have seen the housing market trough out now, maybe we have, and we should be able to get more price stability going in

there. maybe these things can start trading again. so that could be quite good news for the financial sector. that said, there's a lot of bad news in terms of defaults and delinquencies ahead. don't get me wrong, this would be a very uncomfortable, slow grind. >> rob, hi. it's louisa in london. i looked down the list of g-20 points. i've spoken to a couple of people that say the rundown isn't all that exciting for what they're trying to get to grips with before the pittsburgh meeting. how important do you think this g-20 meeting is? do you think we're going to reach conclusions on issues such as bonuses, how to manage institutions and how to make sure that we don't end up in the scenario this past year ago?

>> there is a growing sort of caucus of people who want to get out there and achieve anything. i tend to be on the conceptual side of most things. i send to try and ignore them if i can. clearly the g-7 is becoming less important and i think we have to start taking more accounts of these meetings and certainly the whole issue of financial sector regulation is going to be interesting. the main worry i've always had at the beginning of this crisis was there was going to be a knee jerk reaction and someone was going to be blamed and it looks like up here in the banking sector that are being blamed. i think that's slightly unfair. i think the central banks, government, regulators all seem to be getting away with things. it's not scott free, but are more likely than the banking sector. i do hope we don't end up with a

rerun of sar baines oxley where we end up 12 months down the line having not moved forward. >> rob, we'll have to leave it there. thank you for your views this friday. here in asia, a couple of stories we're looking at, get your game face on. chinese tech firm shanda is looking to spin off its games unit. shanda games currently operates 18 multi player role playing games and 11 advanced games with 9.7 million active paying accounts. get this, the company has applied to list on the nasdaq under the symbol game. >> we were just talking about g. 0. now is not the time to exit.

that's the message from the president of the ecb. jean claude trae shay says the ecb has an exit strategy ready but the central bank may raise volumes before withdrawaling liquidity. >> we have used exceptional measures and we'll unwind these measures when the situation returns to normal. >> and trichet's comments come a day after the ecb left interest rates on hold 1%, but at the same time, it raised its full year forecast for the euro zone in 2010. mike. >> as we touched on in that last interview, the recession on rising unemployment are taking their toll on the most creditworthy americans now. prime borrowers are now falling behind on their mortgage and credit card payments at a faster pace than people with poor

credit histories. experts say some prime customers have lost their jobs over the past few months and they're now running out of temporary fixes that have been keeping them afloat financially. subprime borrowers tend to default more quickly and many of those bad loans have worked their way through the financial system. christine. >> it's all about jobs, jobs, jobs, and if you missed any of our interviews, you can catch them at cnbc.com. as traders return to their desks after the summer holidays, is it time to hit that sell button? >> and we'll get the latest on the currency markets. here is a brief glance.

hello. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." shares in peugeot citron are trading sharply to the up side after the carmaker along with mitsubishi motors confirmed they're tying up to market a new model by the end of 2010 and it will be sold under the brand peugeot citron. stephane has more for us on

this. i also note that there's an upgrade of peugeot citron having a bit of that impact. >> we have to remember that the two companies are going to have some electrical cycles for the european market. the production is likely to start in october 2010 confirming what we have in the newspaper. it's also from a first step towards a bigger corporation between the two companies. they have partnerships in russia. now they are developing together some electric vehicles and maybe there is something more to come as this report was suggesting this morning. peugeot sit wrong is looking for a partner outside of europe and less dependent. the new ceo of peugeot citron is clearly aware that if they are

the largest carmaker in france, it doesn't have the critical size on the worldwide market, therefore, the company is looking for a big partner mitsubishi may be the one for the first step electric vehicle for the first year. >> stephane, thank you. let's focus back on the currency market now. wooeshts looking at a whole lot of activity now on the individual cross rates in terms of the percentage moves. we're joined by nick hastings. nick, we have had quite a bit of activity here over the last week. we saw a jump in sterling on better than expected data and we've seen some positioning, i'm assuming, ahead of the nonfarm payroll numbers today. >> you've not only got the payroll data today, but you have the g-20 meeting of finance ministers going on and monday is a holiday in the u.s. you put that altogether, and everybody has a good excuse not to do anything and i think

that's basically what we're seeing at the moment. >> and you're still looking at the government trading below the risk aversion and the republican? >> first of all, it's the end of the summer. labor day on monday is a big day in the u.s. everybody will come back. payrolls, will the payrolls be better than expected? that will be the key thing. the emphasis on these numbers has grown and grown. unemployment in the u.s. still poses a risk to the economic recovery. look at the dovishness that we saw yesterday in the ecb. again, worries that this economic recovery is not so healthy yet. put on top of that that we have the g-20 finance ministers with the possibility of coordinating policy in london at the moment. and the markets are jittery. as we go into next week, we'll

not only be seeing a number that is going to try to judge confidence in the economic recovery, that we could start getting yield differentials moving away from their current curves at the moment, but also, is this a market that is not going start looking at yields and not just be worried about risk and risk appetite and risk aversion in terms of judging currency movements? it's going to be very key. so i think we are at a crux. >> dick, this is mike in the united states. why aren't we seeing the dollar move as strongly as gold inflation is up? wouldn't be see investors selling the dollar and treasuries more? >> that's the assumption, that the rally in gold has more to do with inflation and not to do with really wears that maybe the

exit strategy is going to be too soon and we're going to have those economies in economic growth slow back down again. that may be more of the fair than inflation. i think the confidence we want to see in this economic global recovery has started to wane. that's why this weekend in the events of the payroll and the g-20 finance ministers' meeting is going to be important. it's a case of the markets trying to get a feel. let's face it, for the last couple of weeks, most cases have been on the beaches and around america. they're starting to make their investment strategies for the rest of the year. they're going to have to make some keen decisions here.

>> coming up in the next hour of "worldwide exchange," joseph stig let's says the for double dip recovery sg growing. (announcer) we understand. you need to save money.

i'm mike huckman in the united states. in the united states, the economy may be showing signs of improvement, but probably not enough to keep companies from

cutting jobs. >> and i'm christine tan. hong kong shares just nearly 3% from china up for limits of stock investments by foreigners. >> and i'm louisa bojesen. in europe, g-20 finance ministers prepare to meet in london to talk exit strategies and bankers' bonuses. >> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." if you're just joining us in the united states, welcome to the start of your global day from "worldwide exchange" which is broadcast live from asia, europe and the united states right now. we have 4 1/2 hours to go until the opening bell, but just 3 1/2 hours before that higher open. obviously, all this could change depending on what those numbers tell us at 8:30 new york time this morning. moving on to the treasury market, let's check the yield. on the ten-year bund right now, climbing up at 3.27%.

the yield on the benchmark ten-year t-note is moving up this morning, with the price coming down, of course, which moves in the opposite direction at the.36%. louisa, over to you. >> thank you, mike. i'm just sitting here glancing at some comments just hitting the wires from the ims chief. a lot of comments. some of them, though, indicating that the global economy is emerging from a downturn. they expect a sluggish recovery. p premature exit is a concern to the imf and they're saying that the unwinding stimulus is too -- if you do that too soon, that it could derail the economy with risks for growth and unemployment. let's not forget, either, that the imf and what happened to communications like the imf will be discussed at this g-20 meeting, as well. the imf was promised a portion of money back in april and they want to make sure they get that portion of money that was sard

to be allocated to them. these monies are just coming out right now. let's move on and show you what the markets are doing at the same time. viva is also speaking saying that the global recession is bottoming out. we had the eocd upgrading its outlook to growth globally, although they were holding back on growth in the uk. but we're keeping our eyes on these flashes as they're hitting the wires. viva also stating that a credible global exit strategy is needed. globally, we're hearing about the coordinated efforts needed. we're hearing a solid sounding from brown, sarkozy and merkel a

these issues as we head into the g-20. european markets, having gained a little bit more here in the past haur hour. we're seeing autos being the main gaining sector. autos higher by 3.5%, followed by basic resources and banks. the weakest sectors, not a lot out there today. in fact, none at the moment. food and beverage is going flat. the dollar cross rates, we're sitting tight waiting for the nonfarm payroll data due out later this afternoon. christine, what has been going on in asia? >> the nonfarm payroll numbers that you're talking about, that's keeping investors here cautious. that gave way to caution about the jobs data later today. the nikkei 225 is down 0. % as well as the kospi. the shanghai market getting a bit of a lift on news banking regulators said it was in no

rush to tighten capital requirements. the hang seng getting a late boost on comments from china that it would upping its stock investment limits by foreigners. and the bombay sensex is up 2%. nymex sweet crude at the moment, up 67 cents, $68.63 a barrel. and brent, as well, putting on gains, $67.60 a barrel. louisa. >> let's move on and talk to james bevan. he'll be with us for the next hour. again, get your e-mail questions or comments in to the man. worldwide@cnbc.com. and james, you've got some interesting points that you bring out. you say that many investors at the moment are materially underweight continental europe and this looks wrong to you. >> i see people very very pessimistic about the corporations in europe.

actually, if you look at the fundamental construct of what's going on in markets, i think that there is ample room for european companies to surprise. people should look much more seriously at the real value that is now available. >> and james, i understand that you think japan is an interesting bet right now. you're considering overweight in this particular market. what has changed in japan that makes you more optimistic? >> i think both top down and bottom up reasons to be optimistic. first of all, from the top down point of view, japan's economy is relatively highly leveraged. japan also has very considerable net credit balances within its economy. so it's very well positioned for what many people expect to be a reasonably sluggish economy. from the bottom up point of view, and i look at companies

like sharp and china and i see opportunities for these companies to positively surprise invest everies going forward. >> james, this is mike in the states. what about what's going on with gold? it's up something like about 5% this week before this morning's trade. is this just a hedge against inflation? is it investors taking shelter from what's going on or had been going on in the equities markets or as a couple of guests yesterday here suggested, the indian wedding season at play, as well. >> i think those are all perfectly plausible explanations. i think there is another explanation which is equally plausible which means this could be a hedge for weakness against the dollar as an asset class. i have to tell you that i don't know which of those stories is

correct, if anything any. i find that the investment case for gold is deeply unproven, particularly as we now get economic recovery. i am firmly in the camp that says we will have a v-shaped, not w-shaped recovery. this will be a hot debating point for the rest of the shows going on today. >> and we're going to talk jobs, of course, in the g-20 meeting with you, james. james bevan, chief investment officer as you hang with us for pretty much the rest of the hour on "worldwide exchange." still to come, though, jobs, jobs, jobs. investors await the u.s. employment report for further clues on the state of the economy. plus, g-20 finance ministers descend on london. but can they reach a consensus about bonuses ahead of the leadership summit in pittsburgh later this month? a a a a a a aa

g-20 finance ministers are descending on lobbed to thrash out the details to bring to the g-20 summit taking place later this month in pittsburgh. they'll seek to reassures markets that they have credible plans to withdrawal stimulus packages when appropriate.

the french finance minister says europeans have almost reached a consensus on their g-20 position, but they still need to convince the u.s. on the need to regulate bankers' pay. >> they have a clear position concerning bonuses, which was always a triggering factor for possible disagreement, of views between particularly the uk and the rest of the europe. i essential hope now that prime minister brown has signed up, that we will all be speaking from the same voice. >> mean wile, uk chancellor alistair darling says although bonuses should not be guaranteed, they should be given when earned. i believe we can be confident about our prospects for 2010. but remember, there are still uncertainties, there are still risks. perhaps one of the biggest risks

is to think that the job is done that the recovery is guaranteed. no country can be complacent and we've got to see this through. >> the senior political analyst from nomura, james bevan is still with us here in the studio. alistair, one of your points is that you don't think that the agenda is very gripping this year. now, i looked down at all the points that they have to discuss and try to read some type of a consensus on before pittsburgh, and i think that it's very gripping. >> well, i guess it depends how you look at it. i think the g-20 finance ministers meeting today and tomorrow is an important meeting. but the summit in pittsburgh, frankly, the summit is not making up of the sort of material which i would expect heads of state to have to discuss. i think with the finance ministers' meeting this weekend and with the imf annual meeting, a very important meeting in which exit strategies will be high on the agenda coming up in october, i wonder exactly what

the purpose of the summit is. i don't think markets are going to be perturbed about the summit any more. but i suspect it will go fairly smoothly now. >> alistair, this is mike in the state. i think a lot of people are asking what the purpose of these meetings, especially with this french push over bank bonuses, how much of this is a red herring, if at all. here we are the global economy in the dumper and the focus appears to be on this whole thing about bank bonuses. if we're going to do that, why don't we tell beckham that he can only make $1 million a year and tell george clooney that he can only make $500,000 for every movie that he does? >> well, of course, i guess some of your viewers would say, well, i would say this, wouldn't i?

politicians feel they have to do something about it. but i think the really important issues on the agenda for this weekend's meeting are the issues of begin to go think about exit strategies. likely to be linked to that is can we afford to have banks out there which are, quote, too big to fail. >> how strong an endorsement do you think the group will give the u.s. on this matter? >> i'm very cautious about the extent to which we're going to get anything more than good intentions out of this meeting.

i think a lot of this detail will have to be worked out downstream. but i do think there will be an attempt to paper over any differences and make it look like there is at least a consensus in principal and allow the process to move forward to the summit. but there's a long way to go on regulatory issues. things are going to move at a different pace. as i said to your viewers several times over the past few months, i think the europeans with the report on the table are likely to get regulation in place before the u.s. does. and we'll see that process advancing quickly in europe over the next few weeks, i suspect. >> james here in london. when one looks at the global financial theme and the risks that lie ahead, one would inevitably come ahead. do you think that the g-20 are seriously worried about derivative and what sort of outcomes would there be? >> i've not seen anything which suggests to me that this is really seriously going to be addressed in the g-20 process. for all that talking to finance

ministry officials and the finance ministers in the margins privately, there is concern out there about the derivatives issues. i think, though, that it's a difficult one for them to get to grips with and it's difficult for them to see where it's at at the moment. at the moment, they seem to be concentrating more sadly on picking off some of the easy targets rather than getting down and dirty with the hard issues. >> alistair, how much progress do you think is made or will be made on issues such as some of the financial institutions that have been promised funds like the imf back in april to make sure that they get the funds that were promised to them? >> my understanding is that they've got the nearly $500,000 that they waged for. i think the big problem is not so much available funding. they seem to have plenty for the time being, at least.

but the question of shares and voting quotas, which the europeans remain very reluctant to address seriously, because clearly they will have to give something in relative terms to the emerging markets who are not properly represented in terms of their weight in either the imf or would world bank. the europeans need to wake up to the fact that they have to make some concessions there. >> james, we had a guest a while ago who was saying that the g-20 increasingly is becoming much more important than g-7 or g-8 simply due to the changing nature of the globe. we've got the bric meeting on the sideline of this the g-20 meeting, as well, and timothy geithner has asked to take part in their meeting. they haven't invited him. he asked if he could take part. >> as well, he should. >> as i see. but do you think we're going to see more changes come about, involving some of these bric countries? >> i certainly do. this goes back to what drove the great credit bubble. it's a two-party arrangement.

and, of course, there were those that provides the finance, so very much the sovereign wealth nation that created wealth and getting them coparticipatory is regional. and if one looks at the marginal on a global platform, it's emerging economies. >> for now, though, thank you very much. james bevan, still with us in the studio for this hour and thank you, alistair newton, who jones us, as well, from nomura, senior political analyst. thank you. >> still to come on the show, there's something of an ipo surge under way in asia. is this a sign of better times to come in markets? and the global economy? what do you think? do your public offerings give you more confidence in the global economy? e-mail us.

welcome to progressive.com. you must be looking for motorcycle insurance. you're good. thanks. so is our bike insurance. all the coverage you need at a great price. hold on, cowboy. cool. i'm not done -- for less than a dollar a month, you also get 24/7 roadside assistance. right on. yeah, vroom-vroom! sounds like you ran a 500. more like a 900 v-twin. excuse me. well, you're excused. the right insurance for your ride. now, that's progressive. call or click today. hello, everybody. welcome back thp this is "worldwide exchange." we have rebecca in london, patricia in frankfurt, stephane in paris and adam in singapore. time to throw in the towel yet, becky?

>> not yet. bouncing like a big old beach ball in september. on the basic resource stocks, the ftse 00 by giet a margin is lonmin. kazakhmys is looking pretty strong and just outside of those top five gainers, we have the likes of eurasian, rio tinto, etcetera, all managing to post decent gains. we have seen a bit of an effective, the more assured we've seen about economic recovery, the more we've seen the basic resources stocks rising. we've had a bit of a bump up recently and that's had an impact, as well, on the likes of some of these companies. we've seen some of the banking stocks not doing too badly today. rbs and so on have looked fairly strong. that was the case in the u.s.

yesterday, as well, when we saw gains coming through on wall street by tend of the session. rbs, barclay's, hsbc, lloyd's banking group all looking fairly strong in today's session, too. let's cross over to germany now and check in with patricia szarvas standing by in front further. >> 25 million shares have traded, so it seems that there's no reshuffle in the set of cards we see here in terms of the stock. daiml daimler, just gaining more and more momentum. it is the financials as well as the car stops and munich re, down about 3.6%. no real news for volkswagen, down about 6%. what i thought was interesting is the move up in the daimler story simply because the future might look a little brighter, at least when it comes to the bottom line of the company. they're saving more than the 4

billion euro target, which is good news. also seems to be good news that they're not planning to reduce more of their stuff. however, the crisis is not over, even though maybe the worst may have been seen. midcap, up about 1.3%. it's still, of course, that nonfarm payroll number above us. and that means that the market does react. at the moment, most people only 25 million shares have traded. that is frankfurt. over to stephane. >> and in paris, what a nice session for peugeot citron shares. it's up almost 7% on significant volumes. it's so bright, you almost need sunglasses to watch it. it is going to build electric vehicles with mitsubishi confirming an earlier press report. the cars will be faced on an existing mitsubishi model and will be put in the market under

the peugeot citron. production should start in october next year and that could be the first step towards a greater cooperation between the two companies. renault is up nearly 5%. also in focus today, eads. we are expecting later this morning or this afternoon the ruling from the world strait trade organization regarding the government subsidies in europe. the ceo of eads says airbus has a very strong case, denying reports from the wall street journal saying that this ruling was lickly to conclude that the subsidies from european government for airbus were illegal. also gave some indication about levels for airbus this year. as many plains as in 2008, which is a positive statement.

the stock is up for 2% right now. adam, let's have a look now at the asian markets. >> thank you very much, stephane. the asian markets ended the friday session pretty mixed. . for japan, that market may have lifted. we saw even bigger losses for the topics index. as the tide went out in the financial space, it took with it all of the banking stocks. equity positions tend to worsen somewhat. also the brokerage stocks got hit hard today. diawa securities was hit on the reports that it's buying out its financial partner, could cost them $2.2 billion use dollars. we saw weakness on the blue stock chips. it's going to spend $5.4 billion to buy the power generation

systems of areva over in france. so that stock did end the day down. but china's completely different picture. take a look at hong kong riding on the crest of that wave after the chinese foreign exchange regulator announced new rules governing inbound portfolio investment increasing that to 1 billion u.s. dollars from $800 million u.s. dollars and narrowing that lockup period from three months to 12 months. this is overall great news and the banking stocks that were listed in hong kong had a great day there. on that note, back to mike in the u.s. >> thanks, adam. have a good weekend. coming up today, we will right the end of this summer novel with the jobs report with economist joseph stig let calling the process of a robust recovery very, very weak. this weekend marks one year

since the u.s. government took over fannie mae and freddie mac. how has the mortgage market changed since then? more on that in just a moment.

it is 30 minutes past the hour right now and here are the top business stories from around the world. in the united states, the economy may be showing signs of improvement, but probably not enough to keep companies from cutting jobs. >> i'm louisa bojesen. in europe, finance ministers plan to meet to talk about exit strategies and bankers' bonuses. >> and i'm christine tan. china ups the limits of stock investors by foreigners. >> and welcome back to "worldwide exchange." it's one of those days where it's kind of a moot point to make any kind of a call at this point, especially with it being four hours ahead of the opening bell. it does look like we might be building, at least at the open,

a two-day win streak again after halting the four-day losing streak for the dow and the s&p 500, a three-day down run for the nasdaq. moving on to the treasury market, we saw the price go up yesterday and the yield come down. gold settled at a six-month high yesterday. today we are seeing a bit of a sell-off there. right now, $986.85 an ounce as investors try to take safe haven for what's going on in the ekts market and brace themselves ahead of today's jobs report. louisa. >> and if you're just joining us, it's worth mentioning that ubs has raised their estimates this morning for earnings per share between 2010 and 2015.

at the same time, s&p putting various european clo ratings on watch negative. that's collateralized loan open investigation ratings that they're putting on watch negative. european markets we're seeing buying across the board. the dollar cross rates, sitting tight and waiting for that big data of them all, nonfarm payroll data. i was going to say from one big data to the other, but i can't really do that with christine sitting on the other side of the table. >> i've never been called a daddy before, let me tell you that. markets kind of finished mixed because of caution ahead of that

big jobs payroll number louisa was talking about. nikkei 225 down 0.3%. the kospi down 0.3%. the shanghai market getting support from comments from the banking regulators saying it was in no rush to tighten banking capital requirements. and the hang seng is up 0.2.8% getting a late lift on comments coming out from china that it was going to stop the stock investment by foreigners. overall, a mixed picture here in asia as we wait for that jobs payroll number in the u.s. in terms of oil, this is how the picture is looking. nymex light sweet crude is putting on gains. $68.43 a barrel, up 47 cents. brent also is trading up, as well. at this point in time, brent right now is trading along the ranges of $67.37. louisa. >> yeah, thank you. james is still with us in the studio. and james, you've been sitting tight here waiting for some questions to come in. indeed, we have some.

we have -- bill writes in and wants to know about gentleman panel and asks you to go into more details on your japanese stance. you were saying earlier that japan is a good bet at the moment, you think. >> i think japan is very well positioned from a macro point of view. i see a material in japan's economic positioning. and what are the real problems and challenges to the u.s. and the u.s. in particular? it is this huge resolution of indebted ngs across the peace. in contrast to pan aggregate it is in net credit. and japanese companies have been through the mill in terms of restructuring. and i look at the global japanese companies as being extremely well placed. benefit in modest pick up, but continuing deflationary

pressures. right now, i think deflationary pressures exceed inflationaries. i should look at some of the names, i look at cannon as a global class company, which i think is very well played. breweries, for example, i see real value. >> so brewers and cannon, you're telling viewers to -- >> well, i would use any market weakness opportunity to rebuild. japan is a very high beat market and if we were ascribing to the market by healing, that's the place where we should be positioned. >> okay. all right, james, we'll get back to you in just a minute. it is the first friday of the month. that means only one thing. the u.s. government will release the all-important jobs report at 8:30 a.m. new york time. nonfarm payrolls are estimated to drop by 233,000. it would be the 20th straight month of job losses.

that's the longest losing streak since the great depression. but if the forecast holds up, it would be the smallest monthly decline in a year. the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 9.5% average hourly earnings are seen rising by 0.2%. so to talk jobs, we're joined now by max well clark, chief u.s. economist at idea global and leo tillman, president of l.m. tillman and company. gentlemen, in order of introduction, and i know this can be a bit cumbersome, give me your top line headline number that you're looking for today and a bullet point or two to support that. >> i expect a minus 210k decline in the overall jobs support number. and especially both the ism manufacturing and ism nonmanufacturing surveys.

both showed moderate weakness, but showed further improvement. >> lee yao, give me your headline number you're looking for today. well, we are not in the business of economic forecasting, but we expect the number to be probably in the neighborhood of 270 or so, in line with expectations, unemployment ate of about 9.6%. and our beliefs have been, in fact, that while the recession is over and while the signs point to the fact that recession is over and risk aversion is returni returning, growth is going to be anemic and just growth is going to be constricted. >> i'm very interested as i hear anemic recovery.

i still suspect that we will begin to see a improving jobs trend in october/november, not with standing whatever happens today. i wonder if you subscribe to that view, and if you don't, what do you think happens to the outlook on consumer spending? >> well, consumer spend sg probably key do many of these forecasts. on the one hand, we see consumer sentiment improving, which is encouraging, but we have to acknowledge that credit conditions remain extremely tight. more importantly, we are face ago secular deleveraging of the consumer in the u.s., at least we believe so. therefore, we're going to see fairly constrained growth. and that is the uncertainty that we expect. now it's macroeconomic uncertainty of how some of these anemic growth projections are going to fair against a pick up in global growth.

>> james, give me your headline number for the jobs report and your reason or two for that forecast. >> i'm on a 225 number. my reasoning is following maxwell's view that the lead indicators tell us that we should be more optimistic, not less optimistic. i think numbers are such that i'm not overly worried about the number as well today. >> maxwell, from where i sit, if you can't rely on the u.s. consumer, can we possibly rely on emerging markets to help drive the recovery in the u.s.?

>> i think as scary as this entire downturn has been for consumers across the globe, i think that the view that the u.s. consumer is completely changed from here to kingdom come is a bit misguided. you know, the view that the consumer is a spent force i think is probably true in the near term. a lot of people are trying to reposition their personal finances. but i think as the consumer improves less, you'll see a more sustained recovery. the consumer in asia and china is going to turn around and start spending the way americans may have been in the past. i don't know that that is necessarily true. i don't think that you can necessarily force through a cultural shift and just, you know, spending appetites and things of the sort. and just assume that it's going to happen overnight. so you might have an increase in come assumption from asia. but i don't necessarily see that as a catalyst than the u.s.

consumer has been in the past. so to some extent, that might be true, but i'm not sure. >> maxwell, this is mike. some are saying that we're misguided to focus so much on the headline number here, that it's really about how many hours are people working, what are they making and which sectors and subsectors are shedding jobs and how much, is that right? >> to a great extent, i think that's very true. in this downturn, aside from the number of people that were outright laid off, a significant number of people had their hours reduced. so in the breakdown, you expect that before people start adding new numbers to their employment or to their staff, they would also begin increasing hours first. so i think that's a true bellwether more than, say, for example the headline number as to where the job situation is going.

but adding jobs isn't necessarily a bad thing, either. >> thank you so much. james bevan, the chief investment officer, guest host ccla investment management and finally, leo tilman, president of l.s.tilman and company and author of "financial door wantism" will be back with us later on "worldwide exchange." christine, over to you. >> let's check in with ken moriyasu in the nikkei. >> cautious investors avoided heavy buying ahead of u.s. jobs reports and the g-20 finance ministers's gathering.

after ukiohotayama president and the presumptive prime minister said that financial regulations must be tightened. nomura holdings said friday it has been authorized by the reserve bank of india to serve as a primary dealer in the country's government bond market. the japanese player is poised to strengthen its indian operations by underwriting and selling government debt issues and handling ruee denominated interest rate swaps. and finally, in politics, mr. hatoyame has tapped the hirano as the chief cabinet secretary friday. he is the fifth lower house representing the constituency. >> thank you very much for that. mike, over to you. >> still to come on "worldwide exchange," a step back for google as one of its big shots is leaving the world's largest search engine. we'll have more details right after this. and before that, though, here is another look at how the u.s. futures are shaping up ahead of the 8:30 a.m. jobs report. nati. only from at&t. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 if i'm breathing, i'm thinking about trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i always have my eye out for a stock on the move. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 doesn't matter if a company sells computer chips tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 or, i don't know, fish and chips. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i'll look at all kinds of stocks before i settle on one.

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"worldwide exchange." here are some of the top stories we are watching frarnd the world right now. gary stern has stepped down as president of the minneapolis fed in a notice on its website, the bank says stern ended his tenure on monday. he has led the minneapolis fed since 1985 been in ierp, stern announced his intention to leave this summer before his 65th birthday in november. james lyon, the bank's first vice president and chief operating officer will serve as acting president until the board names a replacement. the minneapolis fed's next turn in the voting rotation on the fomc comes in 2011. and the man who led google's expansion in china is now leaving to start his own company. kai fu lee will step down as president of google greater china later this month. lee was hired away from microsoft back in 2004. microsoft sued both him and google claiming he used insider information to get that new job. google countered with its own lawsuit, though, and the companies later settled out of

court. google now compares 29% of china's search market. google shares are up 0.1% or so. >> thanks, mike. i'm watching goldman having upgraded food and beverage from neutral to underweight. u.s. "squawk box" following "worldwide exchange" for viewers in europe, asia and united states join us. becky quick is joining us to tell us what to expect. >> jobs friday, the government is going to release its employment report at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. we're going to have the numbers on our show live from the labor department. we'll be getting instant reaction from our lineup of economists. he'll be talking to us about everything that is happening. we've got all the fireworks on squawk today. also on the job hunt, ceo and careerbuilder.com is going to tell us where the jobs are and which industries are doing the

highest right now. plus, going for gold. dennis gartman of the gartman letter is going to tell us if gold is a good-bye. he says there is something happening here that you have to pay attention to. congressman paul kanjorski is joining us from your side of the pond, louisa. he is meeting with global financial officials to talk about the economic recovery. he's meeting with people from the eu parliament, from the british parliament and we'll be hearing all about it. the jobs report coming up at 8:30 eastern time, that's likely going to be the market moving event for the day. louisa, joe is back. he has plenty to talk about, too. >> i was going to say, i'm sure he's nag glad to be back in the lovely company of you and the other lovely ladies around him. >> exactly. i think he's in a pretty good

mood. so we'll see him in just a few minutes and we'll see you in just a foo few minutes, as well. >> thanks for that. >> oh, joy, kernen is here. up next, is it all about the jobs report and we're going to look at the trading day ahead here in the united states on wall street, see what it has in store. stay with us. ♪ well i was shopping for a new car, ♪ ♪ which one's me - a cool convertible or an suv? ♪ ♪ too bad i didn't know my credit was whack ♪ ♪ 'cause now i'm driving off the lot in a used sub-compact. ♪ ♪ f-r-e-e, that spells free credit report dot com, baby. ♪ ♪ saw their ads on my tv ♪ thought about going but was too lazy ♪ ♪ now instead of looking fly and rollin' phat ♪ ♪ my legs are sticking to the vinyl ♪ ♪ and my posse's getting laughed at. ♪ ♪ f-r-e-e, that spells free- credit report dot com, baby. ♪

let's get a look ahead to the trading day on wall street. leo tilman is still with us. leo, is it really about the jobs number today? is it possible that it's going to make more of a statement about the economy and the market reaction ahead of a long holiday weekend could be relatively muted? what do you think? >> i absolutely agree with you. it's the friday before the labor day weekend. and unless we see significant deviation from consensus expectations both on the payrolls and unemployment number, the reaction is probably going to be muted. but from this point on, all

economic numbers should be received through valuation. the market have come up so much since the lows of martha from this pointed on, it's all about risk adjustment going forward and it's very difficult to argue that many of these markets offer as much value as they had before. >> hey, leo, this is christine here. what's going to happen with all that money coming back after the long labor weekend? >> well, that's a great question. credit markets have come in significantly. structured products markets have come in significantly. everybody is launching private equity funds to capitalize on dislocated markets. and the only trade in town that is truly left is the carry trades because of the steepness of the yield curves. therefore, there is a good reason to believe that first of all, the yield curve could flatten wblg but more

fundamentally. people will find themselves in a balance of how much it will take to start replenishing earnings in declining yield. very similarly to what we have seen in the crisis. that would be deja vu, obviously not with the same intensity, but an important to answer for many investors. >> leo, it's louisa in london. briefly, teddy writes in and says, do you think that the current improvement on the global economy is only on the corporate level but not on the mainstream level? >> well, no. i think global recovery is driven broad by by both consumers and the business sector. in the u.s., it's different. in the u.s., i truly believe that the consumer is deleveraging on a secular basis despite improvements in consumer confidence. it's not the consumers that have going to be driving this

recovery going forward. >> leo, we've going to go. have a great holiday weekend, leo tilman. that is going to do it for today's program. i'm mike huckman in the u.s. >> and in europe, i'm louisa bojesen. >> here in asia, i'm christine tan. thanks for your company here on "worldwide exchange." see you again on monday. chloe is 9 months old.

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good morning. our favorite day of the month, it's jobs friday and we have markets on the mind. after dropping the 300 points since last friday, stocks broke a four-day losing streak last friday. now, u.s. equity futures are pointing to a positive start.

tgif because i need a vacation and "squawk box" begins right now. >> exhausted. it is tough work. good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mandy drury. carl will be back on tuesday. we'll all be back after the labor day holiday. our top story today, the august employment report. polled forecasters say the economy likely lost another 233,000 last month. that is a big number of job losses, but it would be a decline because it's a slowing pace of job losses. but the unemployment rate is the important number, too. that is stekted to tick higher from 9.5% from the current 9.4%.

>> me? >> yeah, you. i know. it's a tough re-entry. >> i'm rusty here, not that i was ever that -- okay. old parent and young children do not make for a relaxing vacation. >> you need a vacation from your vacation. >> i need a vacation from my vacation. we're going to rt sta right now. but i will read a-4, markets. futures ahead of the jobs report today, let's take a look, up 260. i was actually going to talk about this a little bit, guys. waiting for a gadeau correction. while i was there, i could not pick up a newspaper without reading that the pros, it's in their gut. >> even the pros were expecting a correction. >> where is it? maybe it's coming. it is september. but i have never seen a more consensus that this is not packed up by fundamentals. it's a sugar buzz, a sti