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m & a, surging global markets, a lousy 50-point rally. three days higher in a row. energy stocks leading us, materials and industrials on the rise. the closing bell is next with maria bartiromo. and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. the markets higher boosted by the rising prices of commodities, oil spikes, gold does as well. oil up better than 4%. sharp weakness in the dollar. ahead of tomorrow's opec meetings, gold hitting an 18-month high, the weak dollar helping out there. the precious metal breaking through the $1,000 mark but

closing below that level. financials and oils, ge was upgraded. the dow industrials up 9496, s&p 500 up 1025, nasdaq up 18 points. matt nesto, we are on the noor of the nyc right now. matt. >> i keep remembering my parents went to "x" and i got this lousy t-shirt. it is kind of lousy. any number of things that could have ignited a rally and we got 50 points. we were up, we were down, but never could break above 9500 to 9600 the premarket session to the closing bell, industrials, energy and material. gold witherred at the close. we were at $1,000, ge was a big

story, big gainer in the dow, all session long. best day from that stock since the beginning part of august. the dow was clearly the best performer. seconded by alcoa. those stocks have low share prices, the price-weighted index so they don't have much wallop. chevron and exxon strong in the dow, the s&p, names like peabody, a coal mining company, some consider it a materials play, some consider it an energy stock. it is a coal company, folks. the truth is very strong here today. we also saw some of the drillers strong, transocean very, very strong. the non-alcoa metals and non-gold stocks, steel, allegheny, one of the best performers in material, titanium, tie, very strong on

this session. industrials away from ge included masco, upgrades on that one as well as textron. we are still really having a lot of sledding to do, if you will, before we get to the weekend. let's give it to scott whopper in at the nasdaq. >> oh, to maria. >> yes. i wanted to get your take on this. some of the data you have been looking at as well. tomorrow marks six months from the march 9th low. financials up 128% since the lows, industrial is next winner, up 65%. >> wow. ge is up 120 as well. matt, see you later. let's look at the business

headlines t. national federation of independent business says small business optimism index rose to a reading of 88.6 because the worst of the recession is behind. eight points above the low is still indicating weak business conditions. employment services provider manpower outlook fell to minus 3. that is down from minus 2 in the fourth quarter because of 12% of employers expect to increase their work force. things are much better overseas. hiring expectations are improving in 20 of the 34 countries manpower surveyed. consumers may be more willing to open their wallets this holiday season. 52% of consumers will spend up to $499 on gifts, up 9% compared to last year. 59% of shoppers will be hunting for bargains online, up 17%.

it has been one year since we entered the economic crisis. some investors are jittery. the aspen institute will release a report that the only way trust will come back to the marketplace if companies focus on short-term gaining in favor of a long-term approach. should investors and companies be more concerned with immediate concerns? jack yat land with harris private bank and stewart swits schweitzer. gentlemen, good to have you on the program. >> let's kick this off with you. a lot of people might say you told me ten years ago, invest and forget about it. if that were the case, i have had really lousy decade. >> no question about that, maria. investing for the long term doesn't mean you buy and hold,

close your eyes and so on. the key is to keep in mind the long term and when the market gets frothy to take some off the table and when the market gets really, really pessimistic, think about putting some back on. you mentioned the rally since march and that is a perfect example. >> jack, what do you think? >> i think the world has changed. the aspen institute bemoans the fact the internet is out this is reality. unless we want to legislate we are going back to long term and cnbc can only broadcast one day out of, you know, a quarter, means that we are in a fast-moving market with a lot of money floating around. unfortunately, like it or not, it is a market that requires a lot more agility than a lot of large institutions just don't have. >> so the aspen institute is talking about overcoming short

termism and restoring faith for board managers and shareholders. is this the theme you want to follow when investing in the stock market? >> my answer to that is no. i mean, look at private equity. private equity was supposed to be able to look past the near-term problems, look longer term and focus on more of a secular play without the distraction, so to speak, of shareholders and where is private equity today? i think that the fact is while it is nice to be able to talk about the long term, it is nice to say let's put it away and forget about it, we have to respond to the realities of the world today. >> i would agree. >> go ahead, sir. >> i would agree. i would say let's take private equity. two or three years ago when the past returns looked good people

ramped up new-money allocations to private equity. when? at the top. precisely the wrong thing to be doing. the market is driven by fundamentals. that is the long-term corporate focus but the market is driven by psychology as much as fundamentals. people get excited and depressed and going the other way is a big part of what it takes to make money. >> let's talk about making money, given the fact i reported numbers from the credit group, the s&p 500 up 50.2% since march 9th. tomorrow is the six-month anniversary. industrials 65%, materials 65%, consumer discretionary, 65%. should i take money off the table or the valuations make sen looking at earnings potential.

>> i don't know who is going first? >> go ahead, jack. >> i would say for me this market has come a long way only if you judge it relative to the armageddon fear induced low in march. that basically the way i prefer to think about it is when lehman brothers went down the market fell to a level of 900, now we are a bit over 1,000. that is hardly off to the races. there is a doom-and-gloom mind setd. this economy is coming back. jobs will start to come back and there will be more money to be made in the market. >> jack, do you agree with that? >> i agree, too. i would take this rally and divide it into two pieces. probably 40% of the 50% i would put in the taking the armageddon scenario off the table, put

that -- the financial market back online and then the last 10% which really we've enjoyed since roughly the second-quarter earnings season is what i will call the organic growth. if you are looking to draw a trend over the next 12 months i wouldn't take the 50%, probably the 10%. i believe we can get another 10% to 12% over subsequent four quarters. >> gentlemen, thank you very much. thanks for your time. apple shares rallying ahead of the product event in san francisco tomorrow. the stock hitting a new 52-week high. several firms with $200 a share price target. $172.80, up 1.5%. jim goldman with a preview of what to expect. he is live in san jose. jim. >> nice blog on steve jobs today if you haven't had a chance to read that at cnbc.com.

get a chance to. good insight on steve jobs. looking at the run these shares have enjoyed, whether the rumors justify the rally or will they sell on the news? the event will focus on ipod due for a refresh and fell behind iphone as the third biggest revenue generator. ipods will feature a camera that captures video and stills. a report says a manufacturing kink could delay the new product's release. other rumors, from a camera ipod touch, a deal with the beatles on itunes. that appears less and less likely as we draw closer to the event. a possible deal with the rolling stops with a digitally remastered library, a big ipod classic or discontinuation of that model. the last ipod storing music on a hard drive. the big news is ceo steve jobs

coming back from his liver transplant and medical leave. he will be a part of tomorrow's event that could go a long way toward keeping the apple momentum going. new 52-week high, 200 bucks a share from several firms. this stock has doubled this year alone. tomorrow's event begins at 1:00 eastern. i will be live blogging and complete coverage throughout the day. >> jim, thanks very much. that is going to be quite the event. the securitization market took a beating with the housing collapse. now wall street jumps back in. this time the bet is on life insurance, the risks and rewards. as the president prepares to make what could be a make-or-break speech on health care reform his own party puts another plan on the table. how much of a problem could thih be for health care overhaul? we'll check it out. with my new netbook from at&t.

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welcome back. as the president gets ready to

address congress on health care reform a new plan emerges from his own party. john harwood from the white house. >> the emergence from senator max bachus the chair of the finance committee in the senate shows how we are are reaching the end game on the health care debate. nancy pelosi and harry reid met with president obama. speaker pelosi had a warning for the insurance industry. she said they ought to take the deal the house is offering now on a public option or they may be sorry. >> they'd be better getting a public option now than one is triggered. if you have a triggered public option it is because the insurance industry has demonstrated they are not cooperating, they are not doing the right thing and i think you'll have a tougher public option to deal with. >> the public option is only one of several decision points in the end game. a second is how to finance this expanded coverage that the administration and the congress want to provide?

somewhat attacks insurance companies and high value insurance plans. the third is the level of subsidies for the uninsured, whether it is $900 billion, higher or lower. press secretary robert gibbs said in his speech tomorrow night president obama is going to be proscriptive and lay out what he is for but be flexible. >> there is not a rigidity. he is focused on the end and he is focused on results. i think that is what the american people will see tomorrow night. >> reporter: the real question, maria, is how quickly is the president able to get the senate to move? they are the slow one. the house is more ready to do what he wants. they have a bill encompassing 95% of what the president wants to see. >> john, thanks. how does senator bachus' plan change the playing field? i'm joined by keith boykin, mike

frank, heritage foundation. great to see you gentlemen. >> good to be here. >> good afternoon. >> keith, let me kick it off with you. how does this change the playing field? >> i don't know it does. i saw the 18-page proposal that bachus and his gang of six are putting out there. it puts pressure for them to put something on the table before obama speaks tomorrow night. the proposal they are putting out there, co-ops and taxes on insurance companies, there is no guarantee it will lower the cost. i think what the president wants is to do something that will lower the cost. baucus plan has mandates, that is fine as long as it is affordable. you can't require everyone to pay for insurance it is not affordable. >> mike what do you think? the reports say that this baucus plan lacks a government-run

insurance option favored by the democrats and they say the plan would tax the most expensive health insurance plans. how do you see it? >> well, lack of government option but the government is involved in every other aspect of the delivery of health care in this proposal from the design of what the plans have to offer down to very, very specific levels of detail to how much they can charge actuarially and to whom. you read through this 18-page outline and the recuring thought i had was who do these people think they are they think they are so smart they can micromanage 16% of our economy. it is mind boggling this proposal, is the most conservative of the five out there. >> do you think this will gain republican support or no? >> i can't imagine that it -- it might get senator snowe. i wouldn't rule her turning against it as well.

i don't see anything new in here different enough for senator grassley or enzi to say, aha, that is a big concession. i'm going to grab that one. i can support this whole goldberg contraption. i don't see anything new here. >> that is exactly the problem, maria. you have a proposal that is supposed to be a compromise by moderate democrats and republicans. the republicans are part of a gang of six won't support it anyway. what is the point of the compromise? what is the point of bipartisanship on this? 77% of americans support a public option. the president campaigned on this issue and the american people voted for him, 70 million knowing he would support that. let's do what democracy calls for. let's have a public option. this is what the public voted for. >> this is considered a last-ditch effort by the dems to

secure the republicans' votes. how critical is this speech tomorrow night, keith? >> i think it is very important. it is his last effort to sell this to the public. i think he has to be clear and concise in explaining it to the public. he has to use simple language and personalize it not talk about it with statistics and facts and figures. this is a real issue from his gut. this is the core issue of the democratic party. this is the one issue that united all the factions of democrats. if they can't get this passed what will they get done? that is a real challenge, why this is such an important, critical speech. >> mike, is it possible to have lower costs and less government ownership. you made the point who do you think they are and they are so smart to run 16% of the economy. give me an alternative? >> there have been bipartisan

bills introduced with strong conservatives and prominent liberals putting their names to give states flexibility to waive federal rules including tax code provisions where states can put together in some cases multi-state reform efforts to engage the results so we don't jump head first like thelma and louise. you want the states to have flexibility and leeway to solve the problem. at the federal level you have to fix the tax code. it is more bipartisan right/left support for core elements of reform than this public debate is allowing us to hear about. >> press the reset button and i think you will find a lot of people enthusiastically helping you out. >> i have to disagree. i don't think there is an alternative plan. there is no republican plan. the problem is the majority of the american people are

supporting something and a few people, a small group, five or six people are trying to toward r the will of the majority. we need to get back to the basics. we don't need to get back to scratch. we have been working on for 60 years. >> keith, can you say the majority of public supporting this with so much vocal opposition to parts of it? >> what you see is a small, vocal minority of people yelling and screaming at town hall meetings but the polls back this up. the most recent polls showed 77% of americans support a public option. this is not controversial. the majority of people in congress support it. the people who are opposed are the republicans in congress and insurance companies and they are aligned in this issue. this is about what is best for the american consumer not american insurance companies. >> mike, final word here. >> i can't believe that 77% of people want to let the government take over our health

care system. i think every public opinion survey shows when you present the tradeoff, the moment you present the tradeoff, higher taxes or more regulation, people abandon it wholesale. this is not a popular approach. >> gentlemen, thank you. keith and mike, see you soon. >> the labor day holiday might be over, but stocks are breaking through levels seen in the heat of the summer rally. we'll tell you why next. in these turbulent times, you want a financial partner who promptly gets you... the information you need.

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welcome back. let's take a look at the stories we are covering. double upgrade for costco. raising to overweight on expectations that profit mar gyps are improving and will continue to do so in recovery of non-food sales. harley davidson was upgraded from a hold to a sell. still a hold. citi investment research telling clients signs that the motorcycle makers are showing retail sales improvement and changes in senior management have them believing this is a hold. they raised price target on the stock to 26. and los angeles sands completed

a bond deal. las vegas sands sharing tonight at $15.88 a share. retailers hit 52-week highs. mary thompson has a closer look at retail. >> over 60 new highs at the new york stock exchange, a level approaching what we saw the last time in the heat of the summer rally in july and august. among those hitting new highs, the gap. after reporting a smaller than expected decline in same store sales getting a boost from neutral to outperform. poised for a better performance, closing up 2.30%. up 9%, credit suisse says accelerating trends at old navy are key. old navy having been a sore spot

for the gap and banana republic stores recently. >> kohl's up a buck. they have done a terrific job delivering value. the yearlong 73 in micron technologies upped to a buy. they expect the d-ram schips to rise in the medium term. to campbell's soup, $8 below the 50-week high. volume was good. trading more than 10-day average 1.4 million shares and all of this ahead of fiscal fourth quarter earnings due to be released on friday. the stock finishing with 3.75%. the earnings for campbells are predicted to be unchanged. we'll watch that on friday. maria, back to you. >> an argument can make that

securitization of mortgages caused the bubble in the housing market and eventual collapse. wall street hopes it found the next big idea. repackaging life insurance. can it work? we'll talk about it next. >> here is a look at some of today's winners and losers. ick .

welcome back. the creation of the securitization market helped bank generate more loans. the real estate bust ground it to a halt. the federal government has tried to get the ball rolling again with programs. is the market responding? paul miller, head of sbr capital markets, jim cane, managing partner with green's ledge group. good to have you on the program. >> paul, let me kick it off with you, the securitization market blamed for the financial collapse. how would you characterize the market today? >> the market is relatively dead, especially in the mortgage market. fannie, freddie and ginnie mae,

you cannot get a securitization done right now. outside of the government the market is pretty much dead. >> what do you think it needs to get things moving again? >> i think it needs time. one of the reason why it is dead, the policemen, the ratings agency, the public has lost faith in them. it has to take time, new rules, new laws coming down the road to get people more comfortable. but you need a stabilization of the housing market. it looks like we are getting some stabilization. the investors have gotten burned so bad and the securities lost liquidity, it is going to take time for people to accept securitizations. they have to be clean. it will take a while. the government outside of fannie and freddie hasn't worked well. >> jim, do you agree with that? th

the government tried to get the market going. as the man achieved what it set out to do? >> i believe it has achieved what the plan set out to do, try to establish some basic amount of stability into the marketplace. the overarching key to securitization being successful again is very much driven by a stability in the assumptions that investors use when making a decision to purchase a securitization or not. as traditional investors left the market the government did the right thing, stepped in, provided some stability and at least it has given investors a benchmark to decide whether or not they choose to participate. >> what do you think needs to happen now in order to see some sustainability of the program and the action moving again? >> look, i very much agree with paul's comments around the only way the market is going to get

restarted is through time. i loved through shocks to the system in '98 and 2001 where the securitization markets were interrupted by problems in the underlying collateral. it took a good six to 12 months for investors to regain the confidence to start lending against pools of assets again. i think the government is going to have to continue to stay with the telp program. there is debate about expanding to other asset classes and increasing it in size. i think it is important for that program to stay in place until the bid offer between private investors are willing to accept and the government is willing to lend at collapses further that will happen as markets continue to stabilize. >> what do you think this market looks like post crisis? are we going to see a different securitization market? >> yes. it is going to be much cleaner. it is not going to be where we were when you had all these arm

products, products we didn't have history with, packaged, securitized and nobody watching the underlying collateral. it is going to be cleaner, prime 30-year type stuff, not exotic mortgages. the credit enhancement is bigger than in the past. it is a much cleaner, safer securitization market. which means you are not going to have a $2 trillion market like in '05, '06. >> what about this new issue of life insurance policies. over the weekend, of course, it was reported that bank are going to buy life insurance policies and securityize them. it has a bit of a deja vu feeling. is this a risk bet by bank or good strategy to make up for lost revenue? >> well, certainly, my view of it and paul, please comment, my view is that this is just a distraction. the securitization market is going to get restarted when bank

can take pools of collateral, be it mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, that there is an identifiable history of performance for the underlying collateral first and a track record of how securitizations of those assets perform as well. so life settlements have been around in a securitized format on and off as a very small part of the market. i think they are going to continue to be a small part of the market. i think it is just a distraction. i don't think that will lead us out of where we are today. >> paul? >> i agree. it is a lot of noise. it is not a big enough market to get it jump started. the mortgage market will have to lead the way. credit cards and auto are okay, but you need the mortgage market back.

>> why would an investor participate given what we have seen. there is a trust factor, isn't there? >> i think it is always important and this is one of the big disconnects. i think it is why the market is going to start smaller, investors are going to have to do their own diligence on the underlying collateral and have a view on the performance of the collateral. if they don't have a view, they shandon invest. they shouldn't rely on ratings agencies. >> people were relying on them and they got busted. >> correct. >> i agree. everyone was relying on the rating agencies. once you lost confidence in that you have to be an expert. not a lot of fixed income guys can be an expert in every collateral class. it is smaller. >> we will leave it there. gentlemen, we appreciate your insight.

paul miller, jim cane. many people are pinning the hope of a recovery on the american consumer. they may impact china as well. ramifications are on the horizon. stay with us.

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gecko: well, it's funny you should ask. 'cause actually, i'm from - anncr: geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. welcome back. lee and fung may not be a household name in the united states. you have heard of companies that source apparel in mainland china. this puts them in a unique position with a good engage of

the u.s. and chinese economy. bruce rock wits president of lee and fung. >> nice to see you. >> what can you tell us about the economy for the united states and chaina for the retail environment? >> china, the domestic market is doing well. it took a dip in october along with the rest of the world. it is strong right now. the exports are pretty flat. the first time you would see china coming down on their exports. >> of course, we are waiting for a real important transformation in the chinese economy moving from an export rely upon economy to a consumer led economy, right? >> yeah. china itself, the government has been pushing to build up their local domestic consumer led economy. retail stores have been opening up across china. they were trying to move away from the export business.

they don't believe it is such a big value to their economy. they are looking inward. when the whole world sort of slowed down and internally slowed down, china realized how important the export business really is to their economy and so there is a lot of emphasis now to help the export business of china. that is a big change. they were kind of going away from it last year and the year before. >> what about the economic environment in the united states? have you seen a pick-up in the consumer activity yet? >> after october it was a real crash. i started to see march starting to build a bottom. in the last two months i would say we are starting to see strong reorders. first time in maybe a year and a half that some of our major customers are actually selling out of goods, certain styles that are the right styles at the right price and the right value. definitely value is key right now. you see the retailers that are

at the discount as well as the mid tier starting to perform well. >> we are seeing a real story in terms of inventories, aren't we? a number of u.s. retailers are reducing their inventories, walmart, trying to cut inventories saying in early august it will accelerate efforts to cut inventories and costs. u.s. stores reduced inventories by almost 6%. what impact are you seeing as a result of that? >> what you've seen in the last two years, retailers looking to contract the inventory work on a shorter delivery time. supply chain has shrunk. a quick is very, very important and quick response is very, very important. you see that across the whole board. i don't see the retailers going back to the size of inventory they used to have. it is very lean right now. any pick-up in what is going on

in the market, and there is positive buzz with some of the retailers, will start to influence a buildup of their inventory. >> when you've got inventories falling you have to believe the buying patterns will increase down the road. >> yeah. in many cases you have double digit negative comps. that is the norm. a lot of people are down minus 20%. >> sure. >> we have to let that run through the system. at one point, i'm not sure if it this is year, but next year you will see a pickup in exports. >> what about protectionism, people because of economic issues are looking inward to make sure their country is doing well and that has raised the worry by a number of people that this could be an issue, protectionism. >> quite frankly, going into this year we were very concerned about the way the world was.

sort of the democratic regime is typically more of an aept china or a domestic looking regime. we were concerned about that. so far people have stayed away from the protectionism at this moment. i think because the whole world is on the same page and so we are watching it very, very carefully. >> everybody watches china, of course, because of the impact it may have on the world, in particular the united states. you said things are buzzing again in china and growth is back. >> yeah. >> close to 8% again. >> it is pretty exciting. >> what is going to keep it there? what do you envision for 2010? the stimulus package seemed to have worked well. >> when china decides to do something, they do it. >> they do it. >> and they do it quickly. they got the stimulus to the people and the bank going. right away they got the bank to actually lend. that is something the u.s. was

slow on. i see china continues to prosper right now. there's a lot of strong growth going on in the domestic industry. when the u.s. eventually comes back, which really drives all the exports from china, china will be booming even more. >> we will see about that. it impacts the rest of the world. you are in town for the goldman sachs retail conference. on-line viewing of shows is growing in popularity. hulu says the game is changing and how his company is cashing in on the trend. back in a moment.

we did see the advertising environment stabilize. we're in a stabilized environment. we went through the up front, advertising up front, and we were pleased with the results

from both a pricing and volume standpoint compared to what low expectations everyone had at beginning of the year. so we're feeling more optimistic as we head into next year. >> and that was viacom ceo philippe daweman talking with me and giving me his take on how his company is doing in the current advertising climate. as the fall television season is about to kick off, online programming is gaining ground. cn cnbc's julia boorstin spoke exclusively with the ceo of hulu on that growing trend. hi, julia. >> hi, maria. well, hulu may be a two-year-old startup but it's already synonymous with tv online. 38 million people watched a video on hulu in july. that's more than the number of people that watched time warner cable. hulu offers nearly the entire broadcast tv line-up and much more thanks to newscorp, nbc universal and as of this summer disney as well as 2 huj other content partners. this fall tv season hulu's online trends will dramatically influence how broadcasters

market and craft the content you see on tv. >> we in many ways can be a realtime source of information for the broadcasters and the cable companies. and by that i mean we look at search terms and the incidence of search terms on our search query logs every night. >> hulu has over 200 advertisers. kilar says ad revenue is booming despite the depressed ad market and hulu's premium pricing this thanks to a strategy of using fewer ads, which yields recall rates that are double those of other video sites. now he sees business potential in partnering with cable companies since hulu drives broadband use and also looking to become a destination for password-protected cable content. >> i would love to see hulu be a partner with hbo or time warner cable where we can help people authenticate or log in and be able to say hey, i actually subscribe to hbo and then be able to watch it. so that's what the vision is with regards to tv everywhere and all these other services.

>> kilar is optimistic that hulu eventually brings cbs, which is the one broadcasting outlier, on to partner for this service. and in the meantime, maria, it seems like not having that cbs content isn't really hurting hulu's growth any. back over to you. >> thanks, julia, so much. julia boorstin in los angeles. now we go over to the nasdaq marketsi marketsite, new york city, melissa lee stands by way preview of what's coming up on "fast money" top of the hour. >> hi there, maria, as you know, commodities, big day for them today, gold as well as oil. we'll have your best ways to play the commodity trade going into tomorrow. and also big event tomorrow. apple. we'll have the top-ranked wall street analyst on how you should set up for that big event. perhaps an ipod way camera. perhaps something more. and we've got the analyst who made the call of the day. the analyst who downgraded aig. why he thinks the stock is headed to zero. all that and much more coming up top of the hour, maria. >> all right, melissa, we'll see you then. a look at the market drivers for tomorrow up next. and then a possible big mcloss overseas for mcdonald's. we'll tell you about that.

here's what to watch for tomorrow. >> rick santelli on the floor of the cme group. make sure you tune in at 1:00 eastern for the 20 billion ten-year note augs. the second of three auctions this week. and an hour later tune in for the beige book. the road map t