22nd and 23rd fed meetings. tune in. >> i'm sharon epperson at the nymex. oil at its highest level in over a week. above $71 a barrel as opec ministers gather in vienna for the meeting on wednesday morning. they're expected to leave production levels unchanged and to focus on keeping better compliance. after all, compliance right now only at about 67%. >> mcdonald's losing a precedent-setting eight-year trademark battle in malaysia over use of the prefix mc. the company's highest court sided with mccurry, a malaysian restaurant that specializes in, you guessed it, curried foods. one of the factors influencing the court was the menu at mccurry's. instead of hamburgers and french fries, diners are plate of fish head curry, a popular dish in malaysia. that's for "the closing bell." i'll you tomorrow right here same time. "fast money's" up next, thanks for watching, have a great night. >> are this is krns.com knew

now. andrew cuomo threatening to file charges against bank of america executives for failing to disclose details of the deal to acquire merrill lynch. monaco and the united states has signed an agreement to exchange tax information. part of washington's drive against offshore tax evasion. speaker nancy pelosi says an overwhelming maintain of house members want a public option included in health care reform. that's cnbc.com news now. i'm scott cohn. "fast money" with melissa lee starts now. labor day is over. and the wall street trading desks are fully stocked once again. let's find out what they were doing today. live from the nasdaq marketsite, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. these of course are the "fast money" traders. was today's gain a sign of a good september? your answer and your trades. also tonight, pete with the alpha trade before its big product announcement tomorrow. and karen games the health insurers before obama's big speech to congress. but first, let's get to the word on the street today.

do you think wall street was really back today? >> no. but i mean for a taste there everybody's -- everybody's back. no, i think this is another short week. a lot of people are still milling about. but was it an impressive day? nonetheless. everybody seemed to come in, ratcheting everything higher right from the get-go. listen, the market defies gravity right now. i'm clearly wrong. i don't trust it, but it wants to go higher. >> we got past unemployment on friday so today was all about asset allocation. globally you saw overnight the markets around the world, they were strong. you saw money being deployed today. and as much as the sentiment may remain bearish right now if you're a money manager you have to put money to work. the big question ahead of us right now on thursday, you're going to get some numbers out of china. those will be important to xengding the rally. >> karen, you've got money on the sidelines as a hedge fund manager. you talked about this phenomenon pretty often here on the desk. were you deploying money today or are you starting to look to deploy money because of asset allocation reasons? >> well, we are. i mean, we like everybody else have been somewhat cautious this

year. not like everybody else, but like many hedge funds i know. and i feel like new money that we're getting in we do have to deploy. so the areas that we are optimistic on, which is primarily the energy space, is one where we have been put something money to work. but a day like today i do not want to be a buyer of energy stocks on a day like today. up big. i feel like you know, what it could just as easily be down three bucks in oil. couple of days from now. so today's not the day to put money to work. >> pete, does the vix follow the typical pattern that we irish irishly see -- >> you've got that monday effect. last week the vix took the whole weekend, priced it out. then friday a little more came out, that gave you an indication volatility was truly coming in it wasn't just about the weekend on friday. today you come back in, moved up a little today, but if you look at the long-term chart right there it shows you we are coming down and it just shows you relief. yes, we're grinding, we are moving, we're moving to the up side. the dash for trash last week, and everybody's been talking about dash for trash that's what's moving the market.

now today you don't get the dash you get goldman sachs showing incredible strength, finishing near the highs of the day at 167. then you get morgan stanley starting to participate. jpmorgan turned it around late. some of those financial names, all of a sudden the bears are look for the next reason to say this market's not going higher and the market's going higher. >> and it's clear i've been bearish but we try to bring smup trades that will work regardless. and hewlett-packard is the name we mentioned specifically the day dell reported earnings. we said look, if you like dell you've got to like hewlett-packard at 11 times forward earnings. look at hpq today trading at the highest levels we've seen since last september. tomorrow they're speaking at a citigroup global technology conference in new york city. might want to hear what they have to say. but i think hewlett-packard works on any type of tape -- >> what do you make of the ibm news? 970 for earnings for the year. the street's at 9.73. >> yeah, it's a bit of a sandbag. yeah, we'll make 9.70. they'll make more than that. i think what's more interesting about ibm something pete and i saukd about it this morning, was one of the shops came out, i think it was morgan stanley,

downgraded the stock teek'll weight, meaning equal weight with its peers, but raised their price target to 144, 1450. emb embed within that was morgan stanley saying we're very bullish the overall market because you're saying ibm's going to rally another 15%, 20% from here. >> 30%. that incltrinsically is saying equal weight is up 30%. >> that's bullish for technology. >> it's very bullish for technology. it also makes me think that analysts don't really get it. up 30 is just equal? i don't know. i think up 30%'s pretty good. >> well, that's a weird post-wall street settlement world where you have to do these weird rankings. >> we have to pound the table, accumulate? what was that? strong accumulate. >> there you go. there's wall street for you in this day and age. oil popping the tape, surging nearly 4%, making energy stocks the top sector of the day. joe, you're following this a day

before the opec meeting. we're not expecting any -- >> i don't believe anything comes out of opec. they are going to maintain the current production levels. but look at energy. look at the entire sector. what does it mean going forward? to karen's point. most money managers right now, one sector they want to be in is energy. and is it priced right now in terms of valuation fairly? is it may or may not be. but you have to look inside what the fundamental shift is. and that occurred during the month of august. normally during the month of august you see inventories here in the united states relatively flat. this month in -- rather this past august you saw a change inventories for the first time. we drew down inventories 20 million barrels collectively between reformulated gasoline, distillates and oil itself. so there has been in the last 30 days a fundamental change, and that is the reason why i think most money managers -- want to be in this energy sector the

remainder of the year. >> and you know what's not been stuck in this range. you talk about oil it's been in a range, near $70 a barrel. then you start to look at the oih pretty tight range breaks down gets to 100. but what has been breaking out has been those engineering names. >> sorry pete want to interrupt. mary thompson's got some breaking news on a gold company. what have you got? >> i tell you melissa, this is something that the "fast money" crew is going to want to hear about. barrick gold is making a very bullish bet. basically, on gold. this is what it's doing. it's going to be a $3 billion public offering and it's going to uz other the proceeds from this sale to do two things. first of all, it's going to use 1.9 billion of the net proceeds of this sale to eliminate all of its fixed price gold contracts within the next 12 months, and then it's going to use another billion dollars to eliminate a portion of its floating spot price gold contracts. it's going to take a $5.6 billion charge to earnings as a result of a change in accounting treatment for these contracts, and essentially barrick says there's been increasing concerns among investors about these hedges that it has on gold. and given the increasingly

positive outlook for gold the company, again, is reversing some of these hedges. so a $3 billion offering. $2.9 billion of it going to eliminate some of its gold hedges. a positive call on gold by barrick gold today. >> meary, thanks so much. let's pull up the stock secrecy if the stock is reacting to this dilution. bullish -- >> they're playing the commodity trader. let me say this. at its zenith, at its peak there were 100 million ounces of gold hedged by producers. barrick is a producer. i think they were the lone remaining producer that had hedges out there, about 15 million ounces or so. i think what they're saying and i haven't seen the whole thing is they're effectively buying back the rest of those hedges. interesting. some people will foint to this and say extraordinarily bullish. other people will point to it and say unbelievably bearish since they're the last point to go. now, we talked about how bull markets end on good news, bear

markets end on bad news. i'm not saying it is. and clearly i've been wrong in gold as well. but there will be two camps in this and clearly somebody needs to be right. i would go more negative than positive. >> karen. >> there was something very curious happening last week and that was the gdl really starting to move and yet some of the other commodities and trades that are linked to that like oil, like bonds, interest rates, all those were down. and that was very odd. this announcement does make me think somebody had an idea that this was coming and wanted to get ahead of this trade. this is a very bullish at least sentiment anyway. whether -- it could be what guy's saying. this could be the bull news at the end of the run. i doubt it. so that makes me think somebody had an idea what was happening. >> on a day that gold futures crossed the $1,000 an ounce mark, joe, does this make you more bullish about the precious metal? keep in mind we had commentary out of the gold ceo today saying he believes gold could remain at around $1,000 an ounce for the remainder of the year. also very bullish. >> i maintain my position in gold futures. i'm not getting out. i don't think there's any

reason. the tape's not telling me to get out right now. i think whether you look technically, whether you look fundamentally right now everything lines up for gold prices to continue to go higher over the next three months. the next three months ahead of us, historically they are seasonally very, very weak months for the dollar. they are tied together right now, dollar and gold. if you look at the past two years, when does gold top out in it usually tops out in the first quarter. so i'm looking for gold to continue to have strength over the next four months and top out at some point between january and march. on what barrick's doing it doesn't say it won't put the hedges back again. i'm sure at some point they will place those hedges back on again and to guy's point i think they absolutely are playing commodities trader right here, they maybe right, they may be wrong but they are doing it in a period where historically gold prices tend tie to go higher. >> and they oftentimes top tick. this is just usually a classic example of top ticking the market. suddenly this is it and then you start to see things start to fall apart. look at the gld recently, the volatility in that index itself has exploded to the up side recently. it's up 31% off the low end.

sow take a look at the gld, you start to see this. it has failed at this level now a couple of times in a row. will it this time? i'm not sure. but i tell you what, this is one buyer that once that buyer's gone then you just wonder how quick does the bottom get pulled out from underneath? >> absolutely. let's move on to some of the other commodities also priced in dollars. copper, aluminum stocks popping the tape today with alcoa jumping more than 3% apiece if we are to believe that weak dollar is going to be a reason why gold stocks will rise, therefore go believe that copper and some of the other base metals will also rise? that makes the most sense. but is gold moving perhaps on something else? >> well, i think copper's the metal that you play the economic recovery, particularly coming out of asia right now. freeport-mcmoran. that's been the trade right now. it is pressing up toward 70 bucks. there will be resistance there. i'm not necessarily sure that it gets through there. but again, all this is tied to the dollar. and we are looking at an environment where the dollar is going to continue to maintain its weakness. whether it be oil, whether it be copper, whether it be gold,

right now you're going to have underlying support just as long as the dollar itself continues to decline. >> and i'll go back to what pete's saying, that he's been on for a long time as waurltd industries up 5% today, that's one of those under the radar screen names that nobody speaks about but that's a stock that's done unbelievably well, go back to the earnings report a couple weeks ago, crushing numbers. i mean, now we're pushing up against basically the highs we've seen for a long time. i think you continue higher, again, on a tape that goes up, down, or sideways. >> and that plays a little bit into the power generation. we were talking about foster wheeler before we were interrupted by the bare i can news. you look at foster wheeler, fluor, some of those big energy makers, but then you start to look aat the coal names. absolutely on fire today. not just walter the coking coal names but across the board the coal names. another metal that's absolutely moving right now to the up side, these coal names are on fire. i think if you look at freeport-mcmoran i believe lowest level of volatility now in two years. so at 68, today is the day if you want to hold on to it, which i do, you buy those puts right now. it's the cheapest level in two

years. you can buy that put. if you're wrong, the stock turns around, so what? you've stopped yourself out. if it continues to the up side, now you can participate because this thing, the earnings potential at $3 for copper right now incredible for freeport. >> back to the coal names, though, which names are most leveraged to the metallurgical side of the business? >> walter, tech, anr, those are your big three names that have the best exposure. i also throw peabody in because of the fact they're right there in australia. they ship directly to china. they all four of those -- >> and the one word we're not using throughout this commodities conversation, the conversation about gold itself-s inflation. that is not the reason why these commodities are moving higher. it is about a perfect storm right now. you're entering the fourth quarter. it's coming. and seasonally that's when all this stuff is strong. you're also looking at this diversification play. you're looking globally where central banks want to own something other than longer-term u.s. assets. and what's better to own than the actual physical assess of commodities? >> at freeport you do get a

little gold exposure. going back to you that taug about bucyrus all the time and joy global, those are moving to the up side now. they had a nice big move today. can we they extend it i? don't know. they made a quick big snapback the last couple trading days. again, really cheap volatility in the option there's. >> let's move on talk about what was behind this big rally we saw across the board in the commodities space and that is the weaker dollar. in fact, the dollar index hitting lows for the year. let's bring in the big sir, ricy santelli, who joins us from the pits of chicago. rick, how much weaker are we going to be? >> with the dollar i think it's an ongoing stick. all you ayn randers out there, i'm not dismissing the move in goemd i think you want to pay attention to what's going on in the dollar.sy i don't see it changing anytime soon. but if you're talking about a disaster trade with regard to the dollar, it should have happened a year ago. if you're talking about gold now, i think the barrick story couldn't be a better story for calling a top. what better story than the last short getting out? guy nailed it.

they're probably pulling back those shorts over simplificat n simplification. but those can sometimes brand moves, can they someone. >> you know, rick, i'll say this. i think a lot of people that i know have been waiting for the barrick announcement. i mean, they've been the lone guy out there that hasn't bolt back these last 15 million ounces. i believe it's 15. i apologize if i'm wrong. but i think they got a lot of pressure from shareholders. how can you be hedged gold? it's $1,000 an ounce. i don't think if you put them in a lie detector test they'd say we want to buy back gold here. i think they got pressured into this move. >> i agree with you. let's throw out a couple caveats, if you think things are going to recover interest rates are going to go pup. the cost of carrying a sterile commodity like gold, it's disingenuous to be on the long side. there are so many various stories here. and question everything. let me ask joe. joe, if you have $100,000 in a savings account, do you want a little disinflation or do you want inflation? >> that's an offense answer, rick, but let me --

>> what's the obvious answer? >> first of all-f i have $100,000 in a savings account i'm not doing something right in terms of trading itself. >> you're still not answering my question. >> i know i'm not -- >> you want higher interest rates, joe. >> it's an obvious answer, rick. i know that. but -- >> you want to have -- the reason i'm getting at this is you can't trust anything anymore. you have to do your own thinking. why is it that the governments are always teg telling you the big best bogey man in the closet is deflation or disinflation? because they usually always have piles of debt when there are world crisis. and the cost of their debt goes up. >> rick, the reason why i'm not answering your question is because what i'm trying to do, and you do it very well-s focus on the tape. there is nothing about gold right now that's telling me to move to the sidelines. there's nothing about the dollar tape right now -- >> so you would recommend to your best friend that buying gold at $1,000 in your opinion, after the entire crisis, the worst parts have come and gone and it couldn't get above 1,000, you think it's a good time now? >> it's trading 995. it's five box off 1,000. why not? >> i'm going to sell you 995s,

you're going to buy 995s -- >> you got, it baby. >> i want to keep track of this trade. >> rick-i back you up a little bit on this because of the fact the markets are telling you something and what they're saying right now is they're buying puts because they don't believe in the market right now but they want to participate on this up side move, exactly like you and i would do as traders and they're also speculating to the up side, but you look at the down side put in every one of these miners collect connected with gold as well as gld you will see a spike in volatility because people are not fully entrenched in the idea that they want to own gold right now at 1,000. >> i agree, pete. and it's such a hard argument because we all bleevg there's bad fiscal behavior, we all don't like debt and deficits, we don't like the fact that our government watches the dollar get trashed and says it's an orderly demise. it would be an ayn rand layup to buy gold. viewers, it just doesn't make sense to buy it here and now at these levels. >> thanks so much. >> we've got a trade, rick. >> thank you, buddy. >> thank you, sir, out in chicago. pete, let me ask you about the

gld versus something like the xiu which measures the miners -- >> or gdx 37. >> right. are you seeing a difference in terms of volatility? >> i don't pay attention to the miners. i like the gld because that's more of a correlation to gold itself. >> i was just wonder field goal there's a difference in opinion in terms of the risk level stocks versus the metals. >> there's been activity for sure on both the gld and most of the names in the gdx, not the gdx particularly but the names in the gdx buying that put because people are having a hard time -- >> and what i was trying to do with rick, remember if we're talking about a falling dollar it's not all about this gold trade, there are other globally geared corporations you want to be in. bucyrus, mcdonald's, coca-cola, those are names you want tone if the dollar continues to slide. >> let's, speaking of technology, turn our attention to our fast flash today. apple. of course on everybody's radar ahead of that new product meeting tomorrow, hitting i new 52-week high. today. very interesting here. bullish move on perhaps a new

product, perhaps not tomorrow. >> it could be a very similar thing as this gold trade. apple runs into these events, at times they tend to determine or make the high for a move. we'll see if that's tomorrow. apple's been on fire. that's one of those things that it will outperform a good tape but underperform a bad tape. and we've said it many times. if you believe the overall market's going higher, you continue to own apple. >> the positive on apple on apple today is we all know about events tomorrow, at least projection sxiz know we're going to get some great information from mr. goldman out there but i'll tell you the interest thing is we close add boff the 52-week high. volatility there. that's another example. extremely low. gave me an opportunity to say you know, what apple right now going into this event, closing above -- or closing near this level. i actually bought had some apple today, bought some puts to protect myself because my risk is so limited now to the up side, i can still hold on, but my risk to the down side is extremely limited with volatility below 30 now. this has normally been trading

40s, 50s, 60% volatility. it's now 30. >> and also look at vm ware and -- goldman sachs talked about software, virtualization. i agree with owning both those names. i think they both go higher substantially from here. >> let's see what was going on around the floor today. 50 cents. >> who? >> fitty cent. made an appearance on "power lunch" today and the multimillionaire rapper had to concede that even he wasn't immune to the downturn in the housing market. >> you still trying to sell that big property out in con? >> yeah, i'm still trying to get rid of that elephant. the big white one. you know, real estate would be the safest place to put your money prior to this. >> so they told you, right? >> yeah, they told me. i need new -- i need advice. >> that was david kelly sitting to his right. a little awkward moment for david kelly. in fact, let's take a look at it one more time.

>> i need new -- i need advice. >> got a nice suit on. >> he's blushing. but i'm sure he'll take mr. cent's business. all right, don't go anywhere, we've got -- >> mr. cent? >> well, you called the ceo -- >> he's got inflation. >> mr. evans. so mr. cent. we've got lots more word on the street on the way when "fast money" comes right back, including the man who took down aig today and a sector trade on chocolate. don't go anywhere. tomorrow -- obama's taking the fight from the town halls straight to the capitol. your next money move in this high-stakes game over our health. and all eyes on apple's secret event tomorrow. can apple keep wowing when they've already done it all? plus, the pit boss survived the implosion, and he's wiser for it. it's your lesson from lehman. um bill--

why is dick butkus here? i hired him to speak. a lot of fortune 500 companies use him. but-- i'm your only employee. we're gonna start using fedex to ship globally-- that means billions of potential customers. we're gonna be huge. good morning! you know business is a lot like football... i just don't understand... i'm sorry dick butkus. (announcer) we understand. you want to grow internationally. fedex express

let's get back to the word on the street right now, talk about aig, shall we? triple-digit run last month but the stock got knocked down today 11% credit suisse saying the

company has little to know common equity value. is this the dash for trash? is this finally over? time to analyze this with thomas gallagher the man behind the call. he joins us on the fast line right now. thomas, great to have you with us. >> thanks. good to be here. >> we have heard from many analysts on the street that aig has little to know value and yet we have seen this stock along with other quote unquote trashy stocks rise higher. do you think even though that might be the right long-term call that perhaps then people could miss out on a short-term opportunity? >> yeah, certainly the stock has oscillated substantially over the near term. hard to say exactly where it's going to move week to week since you've had double-digit moves in both directions on a weekly basis. but ultimately, you know, we're looking at a one-year type horizon trying to look through to the intrinsic value of the common equity, and we think there's substantial down side to that. >> a part of your call is the sale of assets that is expected to be slowed down according to new ceo mr. benmosche. the aig spinoff of the life

insurance business for about $5 billion, that is not enough to move the needle in terms of the worth of the common stock? >> yeah, what we're looking at is ultimately the government is looking to getry paid on its $4545 billion credit line that's been extended by the fed as well as the 42, 43 billion of preferreds that the government also extended. so when you look at reasonable values that would you get for those businesses, compare them to the other parts in the cap structure that stand above the common, there would still appear to be a fairly wide gap in terms of how much you would get in terms of the asset sales relative to the instruments that stand above you if you are a common eblth holder. >> thomas, it's karen. where is the bulk of the money here? international lease finance still part of this business? and how baying part would that be of the overall pie? where can they generate some returns? >> most of the -- the bulk of

the asset sales, the bulk of the value in aig today would be the combination of the foreign life insurance businesses, which we pig at a little north of 40 billion of value as well as the global property casualty insurance business which we have somewhere in the 20 to $30 billion range. that's where most of the value of the company resides today. >> all right, tom, thanks so much for joining us. thomas gallagher, the analyst who downgraded aig today. >> here's a $15 price target on this which takes it to about 75 cents, which is clearly below when they did the reverse split which i think was somewhere around 23.20. so clearly he looks as this as having no value. i happen to agree with him. i don't know what it is exactly they can go out and sell further to raise the amount of capital they need to repay the government. >> i think the fear is being caught in another short squeeze. i don't know if you can borrow aig at this point to get shorted. but 19 or 20 seems to ring a

bell in my head in terms of that two for one. or the reverse splid, i apologize. that's where i think it's head, is 19. but i don't know how you can put on a position in this environment. >> if there was a day last week where you were on and john was on with you at the halftime report and you guys were talking about aig and suddenly the whole market started to flip. they started to sell the calls, buy the puts. somehow unbeknownst to everybody else the stock went from about 52 down to these levels here. looks like it's starting to move back to maybe this $15 number and it might come faster than people think. >> can you get a buy on these stocks? >> i'm looking at the options to -- the october 32 puts, for example, five bucks. the stock's got to go down to 27 to even -- to break even. that's a pretty dramatic move. that tells you that it's a tough call. >> next trade here, as oil rises above $71 ahead of that opec meeting tomorrow, fears of a fall outbreak in oil creep back into the market. are we headed for a surprise crude comeback? joining us is commodities analyst bradley samples, joins

us from summit energy. hi, bradley. >> hi, melissa. >> where do you expect oil to finish the year? what's our range here? >> i think by the end of the fourth quarter we could probably be looking anywhere between $80 to $90. i don't think we're going to get above $100 before the end of this year. i think the probability of that is quite low right now. even if you see a short-term spike above it driven by very cold weather i wouldn't expect it to be sustained at all. i don't think the fundamentals are quite there yet. >> brad, are you seeing, though, in terms of fundamentals any terms of the shift working off existing inventories? >> the interesting thing with inventories -- we're clearly seeing demand picking back up. the data are all there showing the u.s. and europe, even in japan demand is coming back. it's sort of a pass the baton from china which has really driven us up from the lows earlier in the year to now. but with inventories what you see is a trade more on the time spreads. i think that's really where we're going to see a lot of the action. rather than on the flat price.

i'm still very cautious on the level price and what it's going to do, even with inventories coming off. i think the action really is going to be there in the time spread. so a trade based on a move backwards -- back to backwardation, out of this contango that we're in. >> hey, bradley, when we seem to get a lot of the interviews that happen from the trading floor itself, a lot of the traders talk about $50 oil with a little bit of this inflated number here. so where are we seeing the 80 to 90 fundamentally right now if we're not seethe demand pick up like everybody would expect? >> well, i think -- it depends on how you see this economic recovery playing out. if you look at it as a v or a u-shaped recovery, i think that's probably the most likely scenario right now based on what we can see. the data on the ground right now. i think the demand could rise back up to a level sufficient to push us back up to 75, 80, 85, in a fairly orderly procession. we've been riding this trend line from the lows in january up to about now. we've not really broken below

it. the big risk out there, and this is the reason i don't really like a play on level crude itself, on just the front month alone, is what if we are going to end up seeing this w-shaped recession? we see this double dip recession. it's not all set in stone yet. you sort of have to assume that the government got it just right with the massive stimulus package. and if they didn't, if it wasn't enough, then i think you can very easily see crude prices fall back down to the 50 level. the reason i like the time spread plays is i think even if you do see that you're going to also see the later -- the longer dated stuff fall a little bit more. >> bradley thanks sop. bradley samples joining us from louisville today. >> thank you. >> and if you believe in that strategy, the trade for the investor right now watching the show su go out and buy a name like sun corp., a name like hess, you buy your favorite oil service name and then you go long dated, look at the uso etf and try to sell some of those long dated calls because pricing as you move further out on the curve will obviously november

lower relative to the front. >> would you want to buy uso at this point, karen? given the regulatory uncertainty, no clarity from cftc as to whether or not there are going to be any limitations on futures contracts. >> that is a big question mark. that would make me not be a buyer. and by the way, rig, which is a name we really like, i actually sold some today, every time it seems to get past 80 it loses a little steam. so i did take some off even though i like it long-term. >> prop desk our traders' best proprietary ideas. two turnarounds for tuesday. guy and karen both bringing a company making a comeback from deals gone bad. karen, you're watching i.r. >> that is a deal gone bad. maybe not down the road, but certainly last year or the end of '07 when they did the deal, ingersol-rand is known as an industrial technology company, owns a number of businesses. you might have heard, club car for one. thermal king is another. but what they did was a transformative acquisition.

they bought the train hvac business. they transformed their company at the worst time to one that was very heavily tied in construction, commercial construction, as well as residential construction, and they financed it with debt, expensive debt that had a short life on it. so really everything that could have gone wrong they pretty much did do wrong. however, they have been able to squeeze a little bit out of the business. there were some synergies there. they were able to refinance the debt. actually, the u.s. seems to be coming out a little bit of a recession. the market's giving it somewhat of a reprieve. >> you like this name at these levels after this nice big run-up in the past six months? >> not yet, no. >> but it's on your radar. >> but they will survive. at one point there was a question will they have to eat through so much equity to get out of this hole? but not anymore. so they clutched defeat from the jaws of victory. barely. >> i was just going to dovetail. >> oh, dovetail.

>> at the bronx soo yesterday with my sfleem pup go into the reptile house. anaconda eats like the 100-pound deer. takes about six months to digest. it just hangs out and digests. that's what's been going on with ingle sol rand except it hasn't digested train yet. that was a train wreck of a deal. they couldn't have bought it at a worse time. today ingersol-rand gets upgraded at argup. $36 price target. i just think valuations don't make sense. this is one you want to avoid. it will make sense. not yet. >> and man toe wok. >> manitowoc. >> we called the company. we do our homework on the show. and manitowoc. >> their demise in terms of deals but this has become a free option effectively at 7 1/2 bucks. you're just making a bet that manitowoc is going to come out of this -- >> manitowoc. we called the company.

>> that's what you've got. >> you noticed. >> manitowoc. >> app holding an event tomorrow shrouded in mystery. we'll tell you what to do before the big reveal. next. i'm here on this tiny little plane, and guess what...

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take your positions. president obama set to address congress tomorrow night on his proposed health care reform. speaker of the house nancy pelosi already speaking to the press this afternoon. here's what she had to say. >> i believe that a public option will be essential to our passing a bill in the house of representatives. because as the president has said and i've listened to him very carefully, he believes that the public option is the best way to keep the insurance companies honest and to increase competition. >> mcclatchy listens to the president very carefully. so will obama back away from the public omgs? with us now is daniel clifton, head of policy research at strategus research partners. daniel, we've had nancy pelosi speak backing the public option.

we've had stenni hoyer come out saying he would back a bill without the public option. what are you discounting at this point? >> we don't think the public option with medicare rates are actually going to go through. the votes just aren't there. so we can still here and play these games. if you put the public option, there's 40 democrats against it. if you don't put the public option, there's 80 democrats against it. as long as the republicans are opposed to it, it will never be able to go through. and at some point, because the president's numbers are dropping so fast, they're going to have to compromise their way down, take what they can get, and live to fight another day. >> so in terms of passing what they can get passed, what would that look like? what do you expect the president to unveil tomorrow? >> well, we think the president's going to make one last push for this. so i don't think we're really going to see it tomorrow. the president spoke about health care 121 times since he's been president. we don't really expect much new. he's going to try to rally his party. he's got a democratic problem in terms of getting the votes. once it becomes apparent that the votes just aren't there, we'll see a bill focused more on

coverage. you'll have an individual mandate. you'll have expansions for subsidies. so you'll have a flesh wound to the managed care industry. but you don't have that death sentence that's priced into the stocks priet now. >> it's karen. you don't think as she was speaking that was a message coming from the administration? you think she was speaking on her own? >> i think she has to cover up the fact that her number two just said he would take a bill without it. we have this give and take going on. there's no harm in trying one more time for the public option. but we can find seven, eight, nine democrats in the senate that don't want to be able to do this, and that makes it much more difficult. they could also be settinging the framework for a trigger, which means that in three years if some specific conditions aren't met that you do have a public option in the plan. that's another option. i think that's why the managed care stocks took a hit today. but i don't think it would be that damage because of the politics in those moderate democratic states. >> so dan, unh is a name we talk about a lot. valuation-f nothing goes through it's got to be very compelling on unh.

do you buy it on this dip today? >> we went overweight with health care with managed care on july 27th. so on dips like this we're buying unh and other managed care names. the one thing that i would say is if they have a lot of medicare advantage exposure like humana it's probably not going to be as strong because there are going to be cuts to medicare advantage in this plan. >> daniel, thanks so much for your time. appreciate it. karen, i know that you look at the space pretty carefully based on what daniel said. >> what he's saying, i would stay away from humana, then. but as i've said before, i'm certain that whatever i do will be the wrong move. i'll keep you posted. >> so not true. >> all right. let's take our position, shall we, on apple's big rock and roll event? of course the speculation heating up as it always does ahead of this event. michael bramski from rbc joins us with what he is expecting. mike, ipod with a camera? steve jobs? i mean, come on, give it to us. >> i think they will be launching revitalized versions of the ipods, particularly the touch. but also a nano. and as you said, with camera.

and also we're expecting potentially a new version of itunes. and we don't expect a netbook or a tablet at this event. >> mike, it's joe. these events every year, they line up for surprise. no disappointment. is this really about the itunes story and about what's going on in western europe with spotify? are they going to talk about the future of itunes? is that where the center of the story will be? >> i think the center of the story, joe, is kind of a revitalization and maintaining of the leadership in mp3 of the touch line, but also you're going to see some other, as they usually do at these kinds of events, peripheral messages, potentially an iphone update and, of course, as you said probably some update of itunes. and really maintaining the leadership position both in phones and in mp3. >> hey, mike -- i'm sorry, pedro. tomorrow the beatles' rock band i think gets released, right? the guitar hero thing. any shot that the beatles are involved in this in any way.

and if the answer's yes, what does that mean? >> it's a lot of speculation. and i don't know more than i think anybody else really knows. but i would be highly surprised if we did see any involvement of the beatles. this has been something that has been speculated about for a long time. i think it will continue to be speculated about. but i'm not expecting it tomorrow. >> all right, mike, thanks so much for joining us. mike abramsky from rbc. pete, as guy says, one of these names that needs the market to go higher in order for it to continue to go higher. >> you would think so but it has defied gravity. you look at apple and it just continues. you look at the whole marketplace and it's going up. if barclays is right, they sell a million iphones when they go over to china, holy smokes, giddy-up. >> and up and up. that is your apple trade. coming up next why harley which goes by the ticker symbol hog, a pork processor and the mccurry all made our list of pops and drops today.

call or click today. if you look over the stock, this is a 2010 story. options were heating up in

september today. something's going on. >> pop for the mother ship. general electric was -- >> jpmorgan upgraded to an overweight. they said that basically, when you look at ge it's one of the last few stocks out there that is priced, or should i say relatively underpriced with the expectation being so low. ge does go north of 15, you can still own it. >> drop here for mcgraw hill. owner of s&p. down 7%. >> well, it could have been. david einhorn on "squawk box" this morning talking about moody's and s&p, losing a verdict that they are not allowed to use free speech as a defense for less than stellar research. >> pop here for -- >> it's mcdermott here. credit suisse upgraded today, raised the price target to 31. they talked about their nuclear potential. a-ha. stock broke down to 32 last september. i think that's where it goes. >> and i know, by the way, fyi, mcdermott.

>> i know. >> manitowoc. >> nucular. >> pop for mccurry. a malaysian restaurant wins an eight-year trademark battle overt use of the m-c in its name. malaysian chicken curry and the mccurry. and says mcdonald's does not have a monopoly on the prefix mc. what's next? >> i'm confused. >> mctowels. >> i knew you were going to pull that one, pedro. >> pop for harley-davidson, hog, up 8%. >> they raised the price target. also talked about the improving sales from july to august from down 30% to only down 15%. you've got to like what's going on. plus the new ceo, they like the new management team. big pop today. >> allegheny. >> this is one of the names you

use guy's advice, you sell the good news. they signed a ten-year $1 billion contract with rolls-royce. this is where you get out of the stock. >> drop here for smithfield foods, down 2%. karen. >> yes. not a good day for pork, apparently. a little too much pork going around. we're not just talking about congress. we're talking about the hog industry. not so good for smithfield. little bit of a miss today. >> and a pop here for mexico. this is a story, by the way, that "fast money" has been all over. all over. mexico has been on a record-breaking frenzy this year trying to beat out the u.s. for holding the most guinness world records of any country. mexico has gathered the most "thriller" dancers, the largest mariachi band, and has cooked up both the largest meatball and the largest cheesecake in 2009. >> yeah. instead of worrying about guinness records, get some clean water down there. then we'll move up to guinness. >> way to offend a whole country, guy. >> too bad! >> you want a friend?

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welcome back to "fast money" live at the nasdaq marketsite. the anniversary of lehman, its bankruptcy is just days away. it was a watershed moment that changed the face of wall street and its traders. this week you'll hear how it impacted the people on this very desk and we begin tonight with pete najarian. >> lehman brothers stock lost 94% of its value today on that bankruptcy filing. >> when lehman declared bankruptcy, i was exactly where i normally would be, right in front of my computers. probably called my brother as my first phone call. i just wanted to clarify with both of us what we felt like and what we felt the volatilities should be trading at in the market, in particular in the financials, and what opportunities might be there under these unfortunate circumstances. >> we talked about could it be thursday, could it be friday, could it be monday. we are almost there. that volatility today started

creeping up. that tells me there's still a lot of concern out there. and it also tells me the financials, everybody's very, very nervous. >> the expectations were who's next. and we kept looking for who's next. and you hate to be a piranha with blood in the water. but you start looking as a trader, well, i've got to trade the markets in front of me and i'm going to look around to see who else might be at risk at this point. >> merrill lynch, that risk premium did not come out, but be careful. that thing is really showing some odd weakness right now. >> i've always been somebody who likes to control my risks. and this certainly just brought everything back into focus for me, that i never wanted to have a position on, where i could be carried out myself. i don't want to be the guy being taken out on a stretcher because i put myself in a position where i couldn't defense myself. so if anything, this put my focus back on not just discipline but understanding exactly what my exposure was at any time. >> number one thing, pete, that you do differently today. >> i never trade out of fear.

that's not the way you should ever approach anything. but always protect yourself. it's something i've always done. it's something i've always been a big advocate of, is buy protection. even now volatility's low, by you know what, there's nothing wrong with having those puts in your back pocket against the long stock ever. >> and of course we'll have lessons from lehman brothers from these traders all this week. final trade right after this. or change jobs. eight ways reform matters to you. a cap on deductibles and out-of-pocket costs. no annual or lifetime limits on coverage. preventive care. covered. pre-existing conditions. covered. no higher rates due to gender. extended coverage for young adults. no more coverage denied if you get sick. and guaranteed renewal, even if you do. learn more today. thinking about mutual funds-- think about this: the best place to buy one may not be a mutual fund company at all. instead of emphasizing their funds, td ameritrade has tools that can help you choose funds

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final trade in a moment. but first do not miss melissa

francis co-hosting the call lievg from the opec meeting tomorrow in vienna that is tomorrow live 11:00 a.m. eastern time only on cnbc. >> weatherford, looks like that name's breaking out. >> mdr take a look at urm. >> vbx. even in the face of obama health care rofrm. >> pete. >> bucyrus. it could go a lot higher. >> i'm melissa lee thanks so much for watching. see you at 12:45 for the halftime report. back tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. eastern time for more "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. tomorrow, need a health care checkup? pete's got ought bama trade. make your move before the big address. and time to tackle a fall favorite. ceo kevin plank helps you kick off football season for "fast money." 5:00 eastern tomorrow on cnbc. first in business worldwide.