housing recovery. are they improving or is this just the calm before the storm? a new report from realtytrac tomorrow morning.

we had some pretty good moves today in the drugmakers and a handful of financials turned around on the up side by the close. the investment banks did well. take a look at how we begin the day tomorrow. the dow jones industrial average up today 50 points. general electric parent of this network extending a big rally from yesterday. 9547 last trade on the dow. 1.25 billion shares trade ppd nasdaq up 22 points and the s&p 500 also gaining ground today. i'll see you tomorrow on "closing bell." have a wonderful evening. "fast money's" up next. thanks for being with us. see you tomorrow. live from the nasdaq marketsite, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. these are the "fast money" traders. the action heating up in september. we are moments away now from an exclusive interview. david pogue got with steve jobs. he will reveal a new apple trick the market may have missed today. later steve tackles the best trade of the day as the underarmour ceo explains why his stock jumped 9%. but first let's talk about the rising market, get to the word

on the street. in fact, let's talk about the action that is happening right now as we speak. texas instruments out with its mid-quarter update, raising third quarter guidance. we are seeing after hours a rise higher in texas instruments. we will also check to see if this is having an impact on the cubes in the trading after hours. we have been on this story for a long time. it's had a monster run, guy, you noted. >> the guidance was pretty good. they actually narrowed and raised, raised 37 cents to 41 cents. it was originally 29 to 39. you look at texas instruments, they make 1.05 this year. they're going to make 1.45 next year. so you say to yourself at 18 times forward earnings with that kind of earnings growth is tech a buy? the stock has had a huge run. you just pointed out. the double since march. things are going well at texas instruments. everybody wants to badmouth it over the last couple years but frankly that's a nice turnaround story, i can't say i would race to buy it here but texas is doing some good things. >> it's really about the book to

bill ratio which rates new orders versus existing inventories. if you look at texas instruments guy i think hits it on the head. the tell is tomorrow. apple. look at what happened today with apple. the fundamentals, the news that just came out on texas, let's see if it sticks in the tape throughout tomorrow's session. >> wertainly had a lot of good news coming out of the chip sector of late. novellus bumping you its third quarter, also its full year. then amd yesterday of barclays, sending that stock higher. >> a week ago that got lost in the whole shuffle. you look at intel and everybody says intel's done nothing. well, if you look back and see where intel came to hold this numbers, maybe it's just basing right now. same thing could be said right for texas instruments. i think you've got to be very impressed with the chip sector. then you go over into the other areas of the networkers, you look at juniper, positive comments today coming out of their cfo, and then you look over at ciena. another name in the networking space. but this time they're much more directly tied to research in motion, to iphone, to all of the phone data sort of retrieval process.

you've got to like the direction now of tech. they haven't reacted like in a monstrous way, but you've got to remember you look back to july where we've come from across the fmh, across the xlk to reaction, the fact that they're holding up here, people aren't willing to sell right now is a very impressive stat. >> and i think with txn's aggression the moderation or the conservative guidance they gave us back in june i think that's what this is. i think they told us in june they saw the global economy still in decline. they're able to not only increase but tighten the guidance. that's also very important. and it is about netbooks. it is about some of the cheaper chips that these guys are using. and i think you're going to see these upgrades because although the margins suffer on this you are seeing sales and it's coming from the u.s. it's not coming from the global sales that they often talk about. >> but i have to mention like the rose bowl, the grand daddy of all the the bowls. >> grand daddy. never played in one. >> you almost did. >> no, i didn't. >> ibm is the grand daddy of tech. and ibm has traded above 120 a couple of times. it hasn't closed above 120. now we find it with a 116 handle, actually down small on the day. we thought it would go to 120. it did. but it bothers me a little bit

on a great tape ibm is actually going down. >> if you go back to that chart and you look at how long now it's been holding 120, why aren't the people coming in and selling and saying you know what, ibm's overvalued right here, i want to get out. we're not seeing that reaction. and when some of the money starts to believe in this market with 1,000 on the s&p and the volatility index with 29 just last week, now it's trading 24 and change, you might start to see some of that capital go in. karen last night talked about capital on the sidelines. >> right. >> when does that go in, tim? when does it -- >> i think it's in. i think it's going in. i think we've seen it the start of every month, but i think as the year wears on we're not even in the fourth quarter yet but the anxiety is increasing and i think it's exactly what we're seeing and i would be surprised if any major pullback here was more than a couple percent. i think they're going to be shallow for the rest of the year. >> let's move on. take a look at the chart of the day, the other big tech story of the day, and that of course is apple. all eyes were on apple today surrounding the big rock & roll event. take a look at this. because sort of midday right after that conference, after we

found out steve jobs was there, after we found out eric schmidt was there, after we found out they're cutting prices on the ipod, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, the stock -- >> this is a classic example of how you trade the reaction. that's the trade. guy talked about this months ago. the trade on apple was when steve jobs returned that's when you wanted to cut down your long position. middle of the day, i mean, i had guy in my ear. i was long apple above 174. the minute we heard the announcement that jobs was coming out you had to take some apple off the table. why? because these annual events with apple, they are about surprises. they are not about disappointments. and what was the surprise this year? the surprise really wasn't a momentous product -- the surprise was steve jobs. >> no. we knew that steve jobs was -- that was priced in. >> there was no surprise. they cut prices a little bit. they didn't put enough videos and cameras into the iphones. and i think with apple not only are they a victim of their own success here.

i think they're starring to see some cannibalization between products. the ipod and the iphone -- >> they said that. >> -- are starting to wear against each other. that doesn't mean you run out of this trade 37 and in fact i don't think because we tailed off into the absence of an exciting announcement that you sell the stock. in fact, i think the stock wants to head to its highs of last year on 190. i would not be running out of it. but again, this is a beta stock for the market. >> i think apple clearsly goes to 200 over the next three months or so but -- >> why bail out now? >> because the thinking would be that you could get apple back around 155 to 160 over the next two weeks. >> the cheapest volatility, it has been in two years right now. you buy the puts. you buy apple. that way you can get that ride. if you're wrong to the down side, you're stopped out. and at the least expensive protection you could ever make. and i'll tell you what, steven jobs, i spoke to my father about him today. pancreas was removed. his liver got a transplant. and this guy's up there. and i think part of the disappointment today, people said you know, he doesn't look so good. i asked my dad, i said well when should he start to really look

good? he said lucky by christmas. he's on so much medication right now that this guy, it's impressive he's out on the stage. >> i think he looks pretty good. >> i think so too. and the cannibalization, just remember, and tim knows this better than anybody. china's their growth engine. a million iphones go to china hp how many macs get sold in china? that's why apple is a buy. >> they're cutting prices on the ipod and that tells you the environment we're working in right now. this is not the apple story of 2007 and 2008. if you've got the -- >> lower margin business. ip-- >> never been -- the ipod, it's never really been about the iphone. that is the driver. >> let's bring in "new york times" columnist david pogue. david, you just sat down with steve jobs himself. how did you think he looked? what did he have to say? >> you know, he looked very thin, rail thin, in fact. but i thought he was quite energetic and quite thoughtful and fully into it. he said i need to gain about 30 pounds but i'm eating like crazy. so he, as you know, did some

ipod reshuffling with the market line. i think you're right about the cannibalization. i think they're trying to aim the ipod touch more as a game machine and the nano now as this flip camcorder competitor. tiny little nano, now it takes really good video. >> david, though, isn't this cannibalization good in effect because you're seeing ipod business get a little bit smaller, went from 33% to about 18% but you're seeing iphones move more and that's a higher margin business? so this cannibalization, isn't that a good thing basically? >> yeah, i would think they're not craig about that. and now that they're trying to differentiate these things for specialized purposes maybe they can carve out new markets for themselves. >> and david, in terms -- from your perspective, what did you tell steve jobs in terms of what you thought the most important, most exciting announcement he made today was? >> well, for a technological standpoint as a geek freak like me, the nano was it. i mean, it now has an fm radio.

how long have we waited for that? by the way, there's some things they didn't say. for example, you can pause live radio and go about your business for 15 minutes and then come back and pick up where you left off. kind of like a tivo. that's kind of neat. you can tag songs you hear on the radio so that later in itunes you can buy them. and like i said, the video quality is really good. so for that for the geek freaks like me that was the takeaway. but i think for the rest of the industry just to see steve jobs back on stage and fully in the game was just a big relief. >> hey, david, great opportunity to talk to steve jobs, and why not? did you ask him, did you get the opportunity to ask him what he's been working on? which is the tablet and the direction he's going with that. because we all know that's what he's dove into feet first. >> that's right. no, they won't talk about the tablet. i did ask him if since he was gone for all those months if six months down the line we're going to see a six-month gap in the new products flowing from apple. and he said, well, you know, a lot of these things were started

before i left and when i got back i had to -- and he sort of stopped. and i said, rescue them? he said, no, no. you know, polish them. like i do everything. so no, i don't think you're going to see any lag. >> and real quickly on apple and china. people expect so much here. 7% of their sales is coming out of asia, including china. so yes, huge up side. don't expect monumental numbers overnight. and i think the deal with apple and the iphone, china, unicom, heavy regulation for these guys. it's not the same market. they have a different culture to deal with. it's not going to happen overnight. >> okay, david -- yes. go ahead. >> yeah. i was just going to say, way beyond my skill set. but if you want to talk about megabytes and processors i'm your man. >> we'll keep that in mind next time we want to have that conversation. david pogue, the exclusive with apple ceo steve jobs on the "fast" line. >> i still want to know why you have to pause radio. i mean, if i'm listening to zeppelin, davy, i ain't pausing. >> and is anybody listening to fm radio? >> i was going to say just before radio itself as a medium

dies. >> no, no no, no, no. i listen to radio all the time. 104.3. i mean, i'm a classic rock guy. >> what have you got there? >> no satellite. satellite, baa. 104.3, folks, for you folks on the east coast. classic rock. a lot of zeppelin. get some skynyrd in there. come on. >> all right. let's move on. >> kevin plank knows what i'm talking about. >> we'll get to him in just a minute. we'll see what he listens to on the radio, satellite or fm. let's move on here, talk about the market today. certainly one group that was leading the markets higher overall, the industrials. take a look at the mother ship. general electric. it was up by about 3%. still bumping up against that $15 level. but a lot of the investors across the board were higher up. goldman sachs raised the entire multiindustry sector to atrafrkt. so we had gainers like caterpillar, honeywell, 3m, et cetera. >> let's talk about honeywell. today broad-point initiates

honeywell with a buy. they talked about valuation. the same argument we've made for honeywell in the last few months. they said it's 13 times trailing -- 13 times trailing, 14 times forward. it's cheaper than their peers. that's exactly right. honeywell is cheaper. and frankly, it's a better company with not as many skeletons in the closet. i still go to hon. >> you could own all the industrials as long as the ism remains north of 50, sustains above 50. all these names ge moves north of 50. >> that's what goldman sachs says is one of the big reasons behind this upgrade. do you really believe that? >> absolutely. because it has to do globally with the new orders that are coming. e-commerce and the existing inventories right now. and right now we have worked out a tremendous amount of global inventories and we are restarting that cycle again. >> i agree. and note the difference between what you get from the economists and from the strategists. goldman's giving us a strategy note and they're telling us very different. the economists told you on this show isms have been priced in, blah, blah, blah. the reality is a lot of these companies are not only beating on earnings but they're coming through the cycle as much better

companies. they've weeded out their balance sheets, probably lean sxwrerks neent case of ge went through some very difficult times and face someday very difficult business ppz they have $52 billion of cash. they will be going into the businesses where they can be leaders, where they already are leaders. and again, that's power transmission and the things for tomorrow's trade that still happen. >> answer me this. for all the employees out there -- >> i don't know if i can do that. i already don't know if i want to answer this question. >> $15 is the magic number for general electric. it seems to not be able to cross that level. you're bullish on ge but at what point do we say it's not getting above that resistance and so therefore maybe we're better off putting the money to work in a honeywell or another name that is more leveraged to the up side? >> first of all, i think 15 is not set in stone. we've gone up there a couple times in this last move back and in fact if i'm looking at charts across some of the other related industrial plays, even look at the transports, they all broke through this week. and i do think ge follows that trail. and again-f you are a dow theorist you're following that leadership from the transports. look at the charts. they hit their highs back in early may. they hit another one back in early august. we're at those highs here.

this is a very important level i agree with you. but this is the time to move past that. >> and if you want a road map from goldman sachs they gave you textron a couple weeks ago when they put it on the conviction buy list p look at that stock, up $4 in 2 1/2 weeks. morgan stanley upgrade, this upgrade from goldman sachs. they talked about the growth going for the next five years in a stock like textron, probably a little ahead of itself after this big run. but they're talking about 8% to 10% growth annually over the next five years. pretty impressive numbers. they gave you the road map for the industrials back then when you start to get the ism and durable goods numbers. >> let's look at the other sector today moving the market higher. financials. morgan stanley certainly leading the group higher on an upgrade from jpmorgan, eyer up by element 3%. also there's a lot of chatter about all the fees these guys will earn on the back of all that m&a action that we've seen for kraft-cadbury-f that in fact goes through. goldman sachs as well as others could share about $91 million. >> morgan stanley has struggled to get above 30 bucks so far this year, but it is up 72% on

the year, and if you look at what morgan stanley is doing right now in the business model they are focusing a lot on m&a activity. they have become one of the leaders there. at some point that revenue is going to show up as well as the revenue they get from smith barney. and let's also not forget, they are ramping up their trade operation, which means they're taking more risk. >> asset management still the place to be in my opinion. raymond james up 4% today. take a look at rjf. >> and the canary still goldman sachs. 170 close. that tells you where the market was going before we closed. >> got to move on here because as we mentioned before kevin plank the ceo of underarmour is in the house. as america prerpds for the start of football season starting tomorrow night. underarmour has been running on all cylinders, up more than 9% today. it's been a double, up 103% in the past six months alobe. kevin plank joins us on set. great to have you with us. >> good to sea you, kevin. >> the stock has had a nice run. the street seems to be a little cautious on it at this point in time, mostly for valuation reasons. you said in your latest quarter that you're cautious on consumer

spending. at this point in time give investors out there a catalyst, the reason why they should put fresh capital to work in your stock. >> i think it's the history we've built for the last 13 years with innovation being at the heart and soul of it and being a growth company the way we have gone from a 1996 out of the trunk of your car story to today what we have forecast north of an $800 million brand. and a lot of that has come with not only being able to shape the top line but particularly the last quarter i think showing we know how to run a business as well. better top line, better bottom line, inventory going down and putting mash cash on the balance sheet. >> would you argue you are coming out of this cycle and consumer spending is down it's hit your top line but are you a better company now than you were mine noz ago? >> we can speak for ourselves and what we're seeing in the market. consumers are choosing brands. we obviously -- we feel very good about our position. in our current distribution that we continue to be one of the leaders of the pack. and we're number one where we're doing business particularly on the apparel side. we're getting into some new categories like football. we're learning a lot.

and more importantly there's a message that comes us from. we're not making the cuts, coming out of this year with less people. we're investing in the engine, the growth drivers we have and we see there's a lot of runway in front of under armour. >> clearly you were the innovator and now you're running the company. can you be both, innovator and ceo at the same time? i think it's a fair question. >> i think -- look, i'll let our track record speak for it. and since the last time we tauld we did demonstrate inventory continues to go down. we did take net cash or cash equivalents from $16 million to nearly $80 million year over year. so we're demonstrating that. and people, more importantly, brought on a new president, a guy named david mccray. two new 20-plus-year veterans in our footwear group. so investion in the growth engines we think are going to be taking us to be that number one performance brand in the world at some point. >> and apple's a great example of an innovator as well as a ceo. but getting back to that segmentwise, is there any one segment that you wish you maybe would have waited a little

longer? for instance, footwear, did you get in at the right time or would you now, looking back, say you know, what we should have maybe waited six months, nine months for that area. >> you learn lessons. if there's a lesson, it's that today you're not that good. we continue to look at ourselves skritically saying we're not that good yet. it means we're humble enough to say here's where we need to invest and get better. we continue to come back and put i think the wear test and the product tess test and going back and reinventing footwear, we're heading tour into our fourth year of having footwear as a company and i think you're seeing the divide pends not only in personal and prooelts retail but really good products. we'll sell more footwear next year than this year. we continue to track. and you can't do it all at once. you need to be patient, you need the right people to do that and i think we're demonstrating that ability. >> kevin plank, thank you for joining us. ceo of under armour. stock has doubled in the past six months. >> the performance speaks for itself. we don't kid around, we give kevin a hard time but he's done a tremendous job there. valuations have been the bugaboo but people have talking about it

since it was a $13 stock. shorts squeezed. tremendous short interest here. probably still goes higher. i hear the music. that's why i stopped. i can -- >> you can keep going on and on. >> i can ask him about zeppelin, his days at merrill, the cal game this past weekend. which was a disaster. >> last thing before the music goes, why didn't the shorts cover when the stock got down to 12 at that incredibly low valuation? that's the crazy part. >> good question. that's the word on the street. here's what's coming up next on "fast money." what happened on wall street you that need to know about? word on the street continues with a stat that shows china's growth story may not be what it seems. plus, apple's big event might be over, but the trade's just getting started. will apple's new toys keep the good times rolling? ♪ let the good times roll or has the man behind the curtain lost his touch? plus, a change how we view the markets forever. the ambassador gives us his lessons from lehman. when america's post-market show continues. eseseseseseseseseseses

welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq marketsite. want to get you caught up on the after hours action. we have alerted you to texas instruments out with its

mid-quarter update raising its third quarter guidance. it had tracked higher in the after-hours session but it looks like it is up basically unchanged. so we see a little bit of a rollover in texas instruments. again, the tell of the traders on the desk will be in tomorrow's session to see whether it can actually hold on to anything tomorrow. let's move on talk about apple. down today after its big rock & roll event. talk about rollover. saw a new camera-equipped ipod and the return of steve jobs to the stage. jim goldman was there live. he's got the latest. jim. >> yeah, you know, you went over some of the technical details of some of those products that were announced. there's no question that steve yobz coming on stage and being so candid and so emotional about his liver transplant sharing with us the details of where that donated liver came from, and then getting down to business, really talking about the power of the app store, itunes 9 unveiled today. all of this goes to show the power of the apple economic ecosystem. and really, we are seeing that just operate in spades. the performance of these

websites, of these online markets, if you will, are doing extraordinarily well. you look at the app store as an example. over 75,000 apps. 1.8 billion downloads. itunes, 8.5 billion songs downloaded already. and 100 million accounts. and one final thing on those ipods, we talked about this being a maturing sort of product sector for apple. apple disclosed today that 50% of all ipod sales today are going to new ipod users. this company has figured out a way after 220 million ipods sold to actually expand the market. and that bodes well as we head into the holiday shopping season. guys? >> well, if he's cutting the price, new people are going to buy it so they can have that 74% share. jim-s there any sort of update on that push into china when it comes to the iphone? >> you know, they didn't talk about china and the iphone at all today. which you know, not so much of a surprise. this is a big focus on ipods

today. you talked about those price cuts as an example. we did see apple shares down in trading through the course of the day. we had no news on the beatles, no news on the rolling stones, no mac tablet, at least not yet. and those price cuts. but apple has proven time and again that when it cuts prices it actually figures out a way to offset those cuts with dramatically increased sales volume. and that's something the company has seen enormous success with in the past, and they say they'll see it again this time around. >> okay, jim. thanks so much for your time. >> all right, guys. >> i think the price cuts are really actually taking on microsoft zune. not that they have heavy pressure coming there but this is a sign of really just trying to put these g down and keep them down. i think it's bullish for the stock. in fact, people are rallying around that tune before wefind finally found out that was all the news we got today. >> again, just zeroing in on the price action in a tape that was so strong throughout the entire day, you look at apple, 174. above 174, highest level in how

many months. >> 52-week high. >> jobs steps on the stage, the stock rolls over. it's trading 171 -- >> no. that's not right. the stock went up from 172 and change up to 174 when he stepped on the stage. >> absolutely not. >> absolutely. >> go to the tape. >> i'm going to blow the whistle here. when the headlines crossed that steve jobs actually was going to be present, which was before the 1:00 meeting the stock did go up. >> but we said steve jobs doesn't matter. we talked about this nine months ago. why do we even care he was on the stage or someone people are not expecting him to really be the driving force behind this company anymore. in fact, putting that news behind us was the good news for the stock that allowed it o'come up to 174. >> and you've got cook and oppenheimer. now we know exactly who is behind him. before it was just steven jobs. >> absolutely. i love all the fundamentals of apple. three months apple goes above 200. but looking at today's price action and being long apple, it

told me get out. >> or it tells you to buy put protection. we were having this conversation via e-mail. the -- >> 29. i mean, 29. it is the cheapest opportunity to protect yourself -- >> if you were looking out for me, you would have called me up and told me to do that. >> i told you yesterday. i told youow cheaply the -- >> not a takedown. >> let's move on to the next trade. it is a day we have all been waiting for. especially guy adami. >> yep. >> rock band beatles edition finally hits the stands. the much anticipated release and the chance to play along with the legendary band, will it give the video game industry the jolt it needs? joining us a top-ranked video game analyst heath terry. heath, tell me, is this going to be a big boost? >> you know, it is mainly because it marks the beginning of a series of bigger releases that they've got coming out. you know, the thing to remember with rock band beatles as far as it relates to ea is this is a product that they just distribute that viacom actually owns. so it's really more of a benefit from viacom if it's a success than it is for ea. >> what's your favorite name in the space at this point?

we've gotten all sorts of data points about video game sales being down this year for the first time in i don't know how long. >> we have the best name to play in the space right now is still activision. you look at what we've seen over the course of the last year, you've had a very empty release schedule. they've got a huge product line-up that comes -- coming out really over the holiday season. easy competitive environment. you've got hardware price cuts driving growth in the installed base. that's the name you want to own. >> microsoft, a horde of cash on the balance sheet. apple same thing. any of these guys work they look to any of these names the thqistion the activision, the -- >> absolutely. you look at how important the games are becoming, whether it's the iphone and the amount of time they spent talking about games today, whether it's to what microsoft's doing with the xbox. it's all about the content when it comes to driving games on those platforms, and they're going to be looking to build the contents and acquisition's one of the ways they're going to go. >> does this make me want to run from the activision trade? the release today. >> no. not at all. this is one title. it's going to do a couple, maybe 3 million units if it's really successful. at the end of the day the big

title this christmas is going to be "call of duty" for activision, which is going to do 15 million units. this doesn't hurt at all. >> you talk about the competitive forces of the online gamers. are these guys stealing market share? should they be worried about people like shondo or giant interactive? these are multimillion-dollar companies in china i'm looking at that sales ruppare up 53% an really starting to see -- i don't want the hardware. i want to log in when i can. >> absolutely. and that's why you want to own activision because the biggest game out there is world of warcraft which is owned by actvision. >> how much more can that be a driver, heath? don't they have to update that or have they figured out other ways to make profit off that product space within the game as what shanda does with its game? >> absolutely. the way they update is through expansion packs. and they've had one consistently kind of every couple of years. there's a big one coming out next year that's going to drive additional subscribers for world of warcraft. and then there's also the next generation massively multiplayer game that blizzard's working on

that's more of a 2012 or so type event. >> heath, thanks so much for your time. heath terry joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> are you going to pick up that beatles rock band? >> oh, yeah. what, are you kidding? how do you know i didn't do it already? i was playing it at home this morning. come on. yeah, giddy-up. >> so would you be a buyer of ert? >> valuations are not ridiculous. and i do think one of these guys gets bought by somebody, frankly. so i think on the fly you can known it, yes. >> i don't think you buy it based on is somebody going to buy them. i think you've got to look at the fundamentals and decide is there enough growth for you to be interested in these stocks. >> let's move on. time now for our street fight tonight. it is mcdonald's versus starbucks. mcdonald's takes a left jab. starbucks floats like a butterfly, stings like a bee. they announced today at a retail conference that they are not going to be closing 30 stores that had been on a store closure list. starbucks came out the winner at least for today. pete, you're probably the number

one proponent of the mccafe here. >> absolutely. and i love the starbucks story too because starbucks finally started to get things moving. they talked about some of the way they were going to start to attack without -- they actually talked about a menu. they talk about some of the changes. talked about closing those stores. the economy starting to pick up enough for them, now they've announced that they're not going to be closing some of these stores. it looks like starbucks is making the moves that they need to make. and then you look at mcdonald's right now. they just keep plodding along. i don't look at this as a negative. i look at the charts for mcdonald's. we talked about the rain ngz, the oih 10 to 100. mcdonald's is the same type of thing. it's right near the area where it seems to find itself again. and valuationwise, growthwise the potential with the money that it got, the potential for increasing the dividend that already pays over 3% is strong. >> i'll say this, though. the august comps for the united states were the lowest we've seen since april of '03. in asia pacific, middle east, and africa, which they've been crushing, with actually negative comps which is the first time i've seen that in a while.

jim skinner does a great job, he happens to watch the show, i'd love to have him on and chat. but mcdonald's, that actually sort of scares me a little bit. >> what does that say about yum brands? >> honestly-i think they're completely different companies, frankly. i know you -- i know yum got knocked down today. i think yum does better in china. again, i don't think you can just say apples to apples here. i do think it's apples to oranges. >> i agree. yum is all about physical presence-o so they're put 2g,000 new stores on the ground. mcdonald's is about expanding the brand and expanding the menu. i would point out the comps in mcdonald's in asia were a problem because they were so strong last year. it was a very high baa bar they had to clear and i think the story is still very strong there. >> the world's biggest opera house. take your position in technology. that's right after this break. i'm here on this tiny little plane, and guess what...

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was it really for fun, or to save money on heat? why? don't you think nordic tuesday is fun? oh no, it's fun... you know, if you are trying to cut costs, fedex can help. we've got express options, fast ground and freight service-- you can save money and keep the heat on. great idea. that is a great idea. well, if nordic tuesday wasn't so much fun. (announcer) we understand. you need to save money. fedex welcome back to "fast money." here's what we've got coming up for you in the second half of the program. get your tech forecast direct from the world's top business

software maker. an xem from s.a.p. is stopping by with an insider's view of what's in store for the fall. the health care trade ahead of obama's big speech. one year later tim seymour explains how the lehman collapse changed his hedge fund. but first time to take your position on oil. our own melissa francis is live in vienna from the opec meeting. start with saudi arabia oil minister ali al nai michlt. you can say his name much better than i can for sure. >> no. you did a great job. and actually, the meeting is going on right now. they haven't come to a decision yet. but there's a very interesting sfwierk going on. venezuela's oil minister is not here. he's not at the meeting. that's very unusual. and it turns out he's in russia, in moscow. now, russia has been a huge thorn in the side of opec. they've actually increased production at a time when opec is cutting back and trying to keep prices higher. this is something saudi arabia's been working very hard on so the oil market isn't flooded right now. i caught up with ali naomi, saudi arabia's oil minister a

little while ago. and i asked him why is venezuela's oil minister in russia right now instead of here? here's what he had to say. >> he's in russia. that's why. does that answer the question? >> it does. but i think it's probably a little more delicate than that. >> this is the problem with the press. you always look for something that is not there. when you are -- what do you do? when you go to opec, what do you do? what do you say? his boss says stay. what do you do? >> i listen to what my boss tells me. >> good girl. >> you know, what can you say? i mean, we think there's a little conspiracy going on here for a long time. you know, some say the rest of the group has resented a little bit the power saudi arabia has. venezuela now, you know, forms a little bit of a conspiracy here with russia. it could be a change in the balance of power. but you saw how prickly he got

there. and you know, he does tend to scold me a little bit. it was an interesting undercurrent. anyway, the meeting is still going on and we're expecting an outcome around 1:30 local time. about 7:30 for you. >> how much do you think convenien venezuela's dealing from a position of weakness? their oil fields are in decline. they've done a terrible job of maintaining the industry. chavez has stripped the country's assets down to nothing. these guys are not really a force at this point. >> right. but look at russia. russia right now they've increased production, they're now producing 7.4 million barrels a day. a couple reports had that above saudi arabia. saudi arabia says no, they're producing eight right now. but russia and venezuela together, you add in maybe iran libya, all of a sudden there is a legitimate shift to power they just have tote enough people together, it looks like they might be doing that. >> just quickly did al naimi address the weaker dollar here? any thoughts to perhaps pricing in another currency? >> you know, we all asked him

that question. he kind of played it down a little bit. it's a theme that has been building over time, saying maybe you want to price the opec basket in euros or something like that because the dollar is weaker. but it really cuts both ways for them because of course they get paid in dollars, they have to go out there and buy other products and other currencies. so they're on both sides of that trade. it's a prickly issue for them. >> melissa, thanks so much. melissa francis joining us live from vienna, austria on the sidelines of the opec meeting. >> just to drill down real quick on what the oil trade is right now right here, talking about opec, forget it. compliance rates, they have fallen from 78% down to about 69%. it is about inventories right now when you look at oil, there's been a fundamental shift where we are beginning to work off existing inventories. you're going to get another report tomorrow. if there is another drawdown, you're going to see oil prices get above 73 bucks. >> i would also say look at the dollar very quickly because last may of 2008 with the dollar around 73.50 on the dixie, which is about 2% from here, or was it

1.25, demand fundamentals are not that different. the saudis were the first to till they were on imbalance last year so look where oil could go. >> the world's largest business management software company s.a.p. indicating strength in business tech and software spending through the end of the year. joining us is s.a.p. global field operations president and board member bill mcdermott with his take. pleasure to have you with us on set. your company backed the '09 outlook. the sales forecast had been lowered back in july. are you seeing any sort of improvement since then? >> yeah, i just left the citigroup technology conference and that brought together some of the largest investors in the world. and what we see is a leveling off in big markets like germany, united states, and japan. and some of the faster-moving markets, particularly in asia pacific, have really evolved, and cash and liquidity has freed up in asia and we see very, very substantial growth in asia right now. >> are you seeing tech spending actually increase? >> the strategic technology

investments will be invested in. the tactical ones will be cut. we like to think because we control business processes for the biggest, also mid and small companies in the world in 25 distinctive different industries we will get those investment dollars. other companies won't be as lucky. >> bill, there's a great "new york times" article august 10th about you guys being softer on the -- one of the few if only out there. can you stay independent that way? can you compete on a global scale against the oracles, microsofts, the ibms software only? >> it's a great question. the reality is we should be a business software company. because what customers want is they want a company that's relevant in a business network. and this idea of a collaborative ecosystem that builds their business models around our technology platform is the fuel for the future. this idea of a vertically integrated stack of kej end to end is a 20th century business model. it's outdated and it won't work. >> any thoughts of acquisitions at this point, bill? >> you always keep your options

open. we've grown for 3 1/2 decades organically. we look at tuck-in acquisitions where it makes sense. we'll also do large ones like business objects where it's a game changer. but we're primarily an organic group company. that's what's led us to the market-leadinging position with a 2x share bigger than the number two. so we're doing okay. >> give us your best estimate as to when we'll see a recovery. i know a colleague of yours john schwartz said 2010. >> i think john's about right. i see a leveling off now. i see more optimism than the first half of the year. no question. but i think before you see a marked recovery you're into 2010. and i don't think it will be a windfall. i think it will be steady. the market leaders with great bands, good market position, great products, good customer service will do fine. the others will be also rans or gone. >> bill, pleasure to have you with us. >> thank you so much. >> s.a.p. what's the trade here, guys? >> listen, i mean, the stock speaks for it o'self. it's a great story. it's probably the best company in germany, frankly and i think the stock continues higher. especially after all the announcements you've seen out of

the rivals. i think s.a.p. continues to go up from here. >> these guys are blowing everybody away including mieshlth in the business management software. these guys are growing globally. and he talked about it. this is a diversified customer base. 65% or 75% outside the united states. >> you look at the last quarter and a half, these guys are going to start buying. >> that's the trade on s.a.p. coming up next the trades on royal caribbean ebay and palm after their wild moves during today's session. buy or sell? find out in "pops and drops."

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already has his trade lined up. >> our view on the health care sector is that it's facing headwinds whether there's a legislative answer or not. we think it faces competitive and regulatory problems. in terms of profit margins in the industry. because quite frankly this is an industry that has profit margins that are twice, and some people think three times thaft s&p 500. >> shorting is pretty strong. that's a pretty aggressive move as opposed to not participating in this trade. >> that's what he does, though. he shorts. he shorts well. >> he shorts well. but look back at the wellpoint ceo angela brailly said last

week. if you look at the premiums they collect, only 3 cents go to health insurer profit. the remainder goes to actual care. so there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty surrounding what this entire plan is. but i kind of agree with what jim is saying. the opportunity just might be in shorting these names. >> right. in the options market a lot of these managed care companies the vols are high so -- >> people are playing both directions. right now the anticipation of the street is they just don't know so because of that they're buying calls, buying puts, they're willing to pay up for the premium, they think either way there's going to be a distinct move. >> quick programming note here. cnbc will cover obama as dress to congress from all angles leading in way special edition of the kudlow report with five senators from across the nation including senator grassley and sfoern gregg. coverage begins at 7:00 on cnbc. time for today's edition of "pops and drops." drop for palm. it was down 9% on the day. apple held its big event.

>> they cut the price of the pre. the problem that they -- the pixie. the problem they face right now is the fact they still hooked themselves onto sprint and that's got people concerned. they were hoping they'd get a bigger audience. >> drop for barrick gold, abs, down 6%. not entirely a surprise. >> last night they said they were going to do a $3 billion equity offering. today it was raised to 3 1/2 billion. and there's in the underwriting a provision that says they could do 4 billion. the question here is will other gold producers actually now feel the pressure to do the same? >> got a pop for ebay. up 4% today. guy. >> they have $5 billion by the end of the year. 700 million left on their repurchase plan. the stock is cheap on a valuation i think it can continue to go higher from here. >> dash for trash continues with aig. it was a pop of 8%. tim. >> the trash was off 15% of the two previous daze. so people were out picking up a little trash off the driveway and chucking it inside. for now. >> and we've got a pop for --

hey, reege. i hope you're watching. friend of "fast money" regis philbin channeled guy adami on his show this morning once again. take a look. >> guy is on the "fast money." and you know, everyone's talking at once, and sometimes when somebody else gets the floor if you look the camera goes from guy to guy. from person to person. and guy adami looks like this. >> oh, man. >> that one's for you. >> you're going to scare little kids again. >> good. toughen up, little kids! it's a tough world out there. time to suck it up. you too, reege. i love you, by the way. >> we all do. coming up next, the lehman collapsed changed the way you think about trading. tim seymour gives you the lessons he learned from lehman right after this.

>> the shares losing 44% of their values. one of the biggest one-day percentage drops on record. >> after rising almost 300 points yesterday, stocks gave it all back today -- >> lehman was -- >> how far have we come and where do we go from here? one year later. the month that shook the world. if you're still one of the guys who's going over and over... going urgently... waking up to go... it's time to do what lots of guys everywhere

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welcome back to "fast money." we're getting a bit of a preview of president obama's speech on health care tonight. we have excerpts of the speech crossing right now. part of the speech says that the doors are open for ideas from both parties and that president obama has declined the scare tact ickesics that have been used as part of this plan, he is calling for action on the heels of these hnlz headlines. we are dheking the insurers now and we've got pretty much action across the board. not a real direction when it comes o'trade if we go to aetna, united health, et cetera. we'll consider to monitor for some more excerpts crossing and monitor the action in the after-hours session. we just had that byte from gene chanos, legendary short seller, about him shorting the insurers. are you playing this at all from any side? >> i'm not in this trade, but i tell you, the administration has to talk tough here and no news has bain reason for these guys to rally. i that i they're going to be back on the tape. tonight's going to be a different tack even though they

have cut some proms deals. i don't think this is going to be a good deal for any of these guys. >> we liked it at 23. we said get out at 28 1/2. i would rather buy it 24 1/2. if it goes higher from here you just miss the trade. >> we'll have the final trade right after this break. welcome to the now network. population: 49 million. right now 1.2 million people are on sprint mobile broadband. 31 are streaming a sales conference from the road. eight are wearing bathrobes. two... less. - 154 people are tracking shipments on a train. - ( train whistles )

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before we get to the final trade quick programming note on tonight's "mad money" do not miss a skyward solution ceo plus the ceo of jones apparel.

wes carr. that is tonight 6:00 p.m. eastern with jim cramer. time for the final trade. tim. >> short trade in these guys. >> guy. >> s.a.p. >> that's it? >> yeah, that's it. i haven't got much to say. >> carnival cruise lines, we've been playing it back and forth. up against 32. sell it here. >> don't tell me what to do. pete. >> gie titanium metals a lot of activity out there today. giddy-up. >> i'm melissa lee thanks so much for watching see see you back here 5:00 p.m. eastern for more "fast money" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. tomorrow, cashing in on casinos. jon najarian tells he you if you're about to hit the jackpot. plus when the chips are down this semiconductor insider has your fall forecast. "fast money" 5:00 eastern tomorrow on cnbc. first in business worldwide. there are side mirrors... and then there are the indicator-light warning, radar-sensor-linking, blind-spot-penetrating side mirrors of the all-new ford taurus

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