i'm christine tan in asia. banks are leading the rally. it signals it could be the first in the world to raise rates. >> i'm ross westgate in europe. gm has made its decision on opel. it's on its way to german regulators right now. and i'm mike huckman in the united states. president obama calls on the united states to stop pickering and calls on health care to

craft a health care reform bill. >> hello and welcome to cnbc's "worldwide exchange." global equities, the ftse cnbc global 300 just up 7 points. we had a stronger start in europe this morning, but an hour into trade, we've come off the best levels of the day and the ftse 100 is almost back to the flat line right now. but it is worth pointing out, the ftse is only over 5,000. it's close to 5,000 since last october and it is only 200 points away from where it was at the time of the lehman collapse at nearly a year ago. we showed you how far we've come this year for over 40% for the ftse 100. the cac 40 up 0.2%. smi up 0.3%. dax up 0.5%. on the downside, retail, financial services, telecoms, chemicals and banks. on the currency markets, plenty of focus on just how much weaker

the dollar might get. dollar/yen, 92.12 at the moment. the key level is 9 .50. euro/dollar is 1.4568. the technical level on that, 1.4620. those are the targets people are looking at. sterl, just a little off its recent highs, 1.6512. christine, nice to see you. >> hey, ross, good to see you, too. you have a nice glow about you. welcome back to the show. it's good to see you. we had a strong in asia, the nikkei 225 is up 1.9%. kospi up 2.3% after the central bank kept rates at a record low. shanghai composite down 0.7%. the hang seng up 1.1% and australia is up 1.07%.

opec kept production on hold. crude oil for opec is up 91 cents, $72.22 a barrel. brent is up, with as well, $70.48 a barrel. we are waiting for the uk weekly inventory data that is out at 8:30 new york time. a dow jones forecast calls for oil to fall by 1.6 million barrels. gasoline by 1.3 million barrels and distillates to rise by 600,000 barrels. mike, how are the futures looking today? >> christine, so far they're looking uninspired. we are 5 1/2 hours ahead of the opening bell here, but at this point, it looks like a flat to ever so slightly higher open if these markets were to hold up. ross was talking about the strength in the ftse 100. well, the dow is nudging back up

to its 2009 closing high of 9580. moving on to the treasury market, let's check the yield on the 10-year bund right now, rising a little bit at 3.37%. we did see the price of the benchmark 10-year t-bill here in the states come down and the yield go up to 3.48% yesterday. that's where it's sitting right now. we get the last of three government debt auctions covering more than $7 billion this week alone. finally, checking in on gold, it did top $1,000 again yesterday, but settled with a pullback down 2.60 an ounce or 0.25% to $995 and change and today it's dropping even more at $992.70 per troy ounce. but it was really dollar weakness that's been driving the rally in gold of late. christine, back to you. >> hey, mike. joining us for market strategy,

we have alexis dew a n, fund manager at global cap and martin b.montey. martin, let me start with you first. strong session we're sear here in asia. we have the reserve bank of new zealand and the bank of korea keeping rates at record lows. how much do you think that's provided to do markets, do you think? >> it's provided a lot of support, especially over the last couple of weeks with china and its pullback. this is the sentiment in asia. china is obviously dominant in the area. this is what is playing on people's minds. so with the bank of korea keep rates unchanged, it's adding fuel to the fire. we obviously saw rumors earlier which confirmed that in taiwan with the china government and

this pushed the financial futures very strong early on. so we've seen this sort of sentiment coming through. people are very nervous. the market is very forthy at the moment and it does need to calm down a little bit. >> alexis, what do you think? do you think markets are looking frothy and things need to calm down a bit? >> yeah, i think that we agree. when you look at the stock market currently, i think on an absolute basis, it is fairly valued. but when you look at it on a relative basis, when you look at equity versus bond or cash, i think then there is some room to go because it's still, i think, the asset of choice. so we always have no returns in cash. if you're an investor and you have to put money to work today, we believe you should go into

equity but stick with defensive names. avoid low quality stocks. quality has underperformed during the last six months and this is probably is a good strategy to be staying good quality stocks. >> this is mike huckman in the united states. last night, we had pretty tough talk from president obama regarding health care, health care reform, specifically against the health insurers. i noticed you're underweight health care. is that because of what's going on in the united states? do you think all those stocks could take a hit based on the president's rhetoric last night? >> we believe that the health care story in the u.s. is probably a long-term story. it might not happen in just a

few days. we believe obama wants to cut costs. we believe he's not going to let companies have a 30% margin while the u.s. goes bankrupt through medicaid and medicare. we believe if you want to play defensive, you better be invested in utilities, for example, where yields are higher and where many costs are going down. might be good for some utilities, plus the interesting thing is within the sector, there is a clear push from the government from the obama administration to push green energy, to cut subsidies for new greenfield. we believe this is probably a better thing to do to stay in the utility world rather than being in the health care world if you want to be investing in divens sectors.

>> and martin, the nasdaq is up over 60% off the lows and overnight, we've got texas instruments and asml both raising their guidance, coincidently because of renewed strength here seeing in the chip space. is this going to give more juice to tech and the nasdaq today and secondly, is it indicative of perhaps anticipation of that long awaited corporate i.t. capital expenditure? >> absolutely. i think unfortunately we've fallen out after a terrific run and i do believe that the equity markets in general, including nasdaq, is overbought at the moment. but something like this will overextend it today, have a look at the volume, see how it's going to come through. will it actually deliver? will they actually deliver on

the numbers? i'm very skeptical. let's see what happens on q3 on the major companies. that is out in the s&p, the nasdaq, whichever areas we're talking. alexis was right about the health care, stay away, look for the basic cash generated. don't pick stocks just because showing better earnings is not through headline growth or cutbacks. i'm still worried about tech as a whole. are we growing? i can't really see that. i'd be a little bit wary. >> and it's ross here. what do you make of the commodity space? they're saying, look, economic growth is now the game.

that's going to drive the price. you then look at the oil finds from bp and bg, as well. what do you make of the sector at these levels? >> ross, it was interesting to hear what they were actually trying to say and what did they actually come out with. the main thing was compliance. they're actually going to say that they're going to police what they're going to do. they're going to tell you, this is how much it's going to produce. it's going to be unchanged. but they're going to police it better. so that was about the best you got out of this. i think gold is overrun. it's going to come back to 9:40. the run up was only because of the holiday and the like volumes have traded. it was an overexuberant market. it's overexcited. it's too frothy. this includes the commodities, as well. this has to come back. crude oil as a whole has been pretty dull over the last

month's trading session. you see the front month fall on it. it's come off quite a bit. i imagine that we'll start to drift back towards the $65 mark quite soon in the next couple of months or so alexis, briefly, your view? >> we're investing currently a lot in many different companies across the chain, companies recycling less, companies recycling aluminum. it takes you 95% less energy to recycle aloom nun numb than to create aluminum. so the concept of companies collecting scrap and reselling et is probably smart to do because you have an upside call on the price of the commodities while you have a downside cap because we believe that these companies will receive public support if prices of commodities

completely collapse. one of the companies, for example, we like a lot is ross alex in france. they're collecting led batteries from garage, with they crush these batteries, then they go to the foundry and they're recycling zinc and led and then they're studying that. so it's an interesting way to collect waste, recycling it and making profit out of it. >> alexis, sorry, buddy, we have to leave it there, but you got the message out. thank you very much. as we said, opec ministers left production steady. let's get more on what they're saying about compliance. from vienna, carolina gimenti. what are they now doing about compliance? >> reporter: they are saying compliance is not that much of an issue, ross. i was going to tell a story. we are here in vienna, we are here at opec, but instead, there

is another story. it's the known opec countries that can be a problem for opec because it is true that the opec countries want to have a higher oil price. they want to have an oil price around $80 a barrel, at least in the next coming months. but they can't afford another cut in product. they have cut production back in october in 4.2 million barrels a day and, in fact, the other companies, namely russia, has increased production. russia has had record high production in august of 10 million barrels a day. that means even if opec wants to have a higher price, they can't afford a cut right now because the other countries, the nonopec countries would increase the market and supply the demand that opec wouldn't. and still i had a chance to catch up with the saudi oil

minister yesterday and i had a funny conversation with him. i started by asking him if he's happy with the oil price. >> yes, very happy with the price. >> are you worried -- >> any more questions? >> is compliance an issue? >> supply, no. supply ahead of -- >> what is an issue? what are you going to be discussing. >> no issues. >> everything is perfect? >> yes, absolutely. >> reporter: are you worried? >> let me say this. i never worry, okay? that'sy live as long as i am. >> reporter: how old are you? >> 74. >> reporter: i also had a chance to talk to hue say al shari sterny. he told me he's still worried. he sees lots of stability in the market. >> we don't think there's an increase. what's happened before in the market forces come into play and there is a balance between

supply and demand, you know, where it is now. and we think this is a fair supply for producers and consumers. there is still room for improvement on the price. to the $80 barrel level. so the tone is -- >> mike doesn't worry about things, either. he's 102. you would have never guessed, would you? a resolution on opel may be near. general motors will hold a press conference today. the giant has dispatched john smith to berlin to brief german officials after a board meeting that may have led to a final decision on opel. >> ross, the central bank held interest rates steady at a

record low of 2% for a seventh consecutive month. the bank of korea sent a strong signal that the property rates will continue, even if it means moving before other central banks. meanwhile, no change of interest rates for the reserve bank of england either. the bank is more inclined to keep rates unchanged until late 2010 saying recovery is patchy and the growth outlook is still weak. and president obama says it's time to stop bickering and playing games and start acting on health care reform. in a speech, the president says the changes he wants would cost about $900 billion over the next decade. he says individuals should know required to carry basic health insurance. the president stood behind with a proposal for a government-run insurance program to compete with private insurers, but he

says he is open to other ideas. >> i have no interest in putting insurance companies out of business. they provide a legitimate service and employ a lot of our friends and neighbors. >> and president obama says a collective failure to meet the challenge of overhauling the nation's health care system has, and i'm quoting him now, led us to a breaking point and senator max baucus says his finance committee will meet in two weeks to begin drafting legislation. whether or not democrats and republicans have reached any agreement. ross. >> still to come on the program, new zealand and korea have left rates unchanged. we'll attest when the central bankers should implement assist strategy. and as we've talked about, opec agrees to leave output

unchanged. will the economic rebound boost crude prices further? plus, president obama has urged lawmakers to stop bickering over health care reform. what impact will that have on insurance stocks? ;qq;q;q;q

so can the global equity market rally continue? let's find out with our team on of reporters kicking off with becky in london. >> thanks, ross. yesterday we broke through that 5,000 level and closed above 5,000 by just a few points. today we're consolidating that position a lot bit. we are higher by about 0.3% or so. looking at some of the movers, tui travel, thomas cook both adding ground today above the replacement of arcandor's stake in thomas cook indicated at a range of 240 to 245 p, that is pretty well covered and we're seeing shares of those companies gaining accordingly. we've had earnings news today, particularly in the home retail sector. home retail saying their home bases and businesses fell but fell by less than expected.

the stock is the biggest decliner of the ftse 100. pulling down with it the likes of kingfisher, as well. patricia, how is it going in germany? >> really well over the last four trading sessions. commerzbank continues to perform. yesterday, the biggest performer. today, we were up as much as 10%. above that, at the moment, up about 6.9%. are, of course, one thing, the positive comments that we heard from the ceo, mr. blessing, on the other hand, we hear traders talk about a short squeeze out. thyssenkrupp getting an upgrade, s.a.p., anybody trading adr of german companies in the u.s. has seen that they had a great performance yesterday evening. continues in our trade. and deutsche telekom and deutsche borse, we are still

waiting to hear with regards to opel. we'll keep you in the loop in frankfurt. over to paris now. >> and in paris, on the back of asml and texas instrument, both raised their targets. we've got a very positive session on the back of peugeot citron. the two are cooperating in the engine area. peugeot sit crone is up 1.2%. we have speculation on eads. the government has proposed the next ceo is the current eo.

if he takes the job, he could try to merge eads. that's the reason why we've got speculation on the stock. that is the story in paris. now over to adam in singapore for a few on the asian markets. >> thank you very much, stephane. the u.s. picture improved, helping to fuel the equities in the asian market. the july core machinery orders data coming in down 9.3%, much worse than the forecast of 6.the% and wholesale prices down 8.5%, matching a record decline in july, indicating the world's second largest economy is standing in a period of deflation. that did little to stop the gains in equity markets.

even though the yen remained stubbornly strong. and the yen, take a look at that. mitsubishi ufg, looking strong. moving on to the brokerages, we had a solid session for them, as well. after the bell, we had news out that daiwa securities is ending its relationship with sumito financial. sumitomo is going to provide loevens to daiwa in order r in order to take them out. overall, it was a positive session. good morning, mike. >> good afternoon, adam. u.s. investors will get a pair of economic reports before the opening bell. weekly jobless claims are out at 8:30 new york time. also at 8:30, july trade deficit numbers he will be released.

the gap is expected to have widened. dennis lockhart will be in florida at 12:30 in the afternoon to be in the u.s. and the global economy and at 4:30 in the afternoon, fed vice chairman donald kohn will take place in a panel discussion in washington. and treasury secretary tim geithner will go before the comingal panel overseeing the t.a.r.p., testify background the government appears handling of the $700 billion financial bailout program. speaking of geithner, he will then take part in a special town hall meeting hosted by cnbc's erin burnett and steve leisman, answering questions from the audience about a whole host of issues. you can catch the show that's being called banking on geithner at 7:00 new york time, only on cnbc. and that is your global stock watch. christine. coming up on "worldwide exchange," we will discuss the

health of the japanese economy after machinery orders hit a record low. >> and it's rate decision day in the uk, as well. the bank of glntd is likely to keep rates unchanged.

[ quacks ] i'm christine tan. in japan, the latest data shows

capital spending remains weak. >> and i'm ross westgate in europe. gm has made its decision on opel. a sealed envelope is on its way to germany right now. >> and i'm mike huckman in the united states where president obama called on congress to stop bickering and get back to work on crafting a health care reform bill. >> you're watching cnbc's "worldwide exchange." the ftse cnbc global 300 is some 6 points higher. the ftse 100, interestingly enough, only 200 points away from where it was at the time of the lehman collapse just over a year ago. 0.2% higher for the ftse 100, 0.6% for the xet ra dax, up 0.4% for the cac 40 and smi. on the currency markets, we're

focus on the dollar index. it's been down over a year low over the next 24 hours. euro/dollar, 1 of 4620 is the technical level there. we're below it at the moment. christine. >> ross, here in asia, a strong sgz with the exception of china. the bank of korea keeping rates at a record low, some psychological reports to the market here. the single biggest one-day gain in two weeks. the kospi was the biggest winner today, up 2.3%. of course, are the central bank's bulis economic outlook helps support this shanghai market. the only market moving to the downside. 0.7%. investors waiting for a slew of economic data coming out from china tomorrow. the hang seng is down 1% and up 1%, rather, and the australian

market is up 1.1%. overall, a pretty strong showing with the exception of china, mike. >> thanks, christine. not really a strong showing here in the futures. they're just kind of hanging out this morning. a lot of people are saying we're due for a breather when we saw the dow go up almost % in four days, nasdaq up almost 5% in the last four days and s&p 500 up almost 4% in that rally. let's look over to the treasury market, we did see the price come down on the 10-year t-note and the yield was sitting at 3.48% i believe is where it ended yesterday. if we can take a although at where it's at now, maybe we can do that in just a moment or maybe not. believe me, it was at 3.48% and that's where it's sitting at this moment as i speak. christine, i think we're going over to you. >> yes. let's talk about the economy and

go to the chief economist at bp bank. yorg, good to have you with us. can we start with asia? we have rates staying at a record low of 2%. do you think asian central banks will be among the first in the world to raise rates? >> first of all, thank you for having me on the program. asia started the recovery, the emerging markets of asia and north of asia, china, japan, korea, they started the recovery process and they may indeed be the first ones to raise interest rates, but we don't anticipate this in the course of this year, so well into early 2010. >> dave, they're going to stay on hold for 2010, presumably, the bank of england is going to be much longer than that.

we know from the last minutes, that the governor wanted to do even more than what they announced. >> we don't expect them to raise the limits any further than what they have during the session today. presumably, they will wait for a few more economic data to come in, but the interest rates will remain low for quite some time, also well into 2010 in our view. >> and this is mike huck man in the states. it looks like things are stabilizing overnight we got the blue chip economic indicator survey which is essentially calling for a jobless recovery next year. so pick a letter, if you would, please, is it going to be an "l," "v" or "w"-shaped recovery? >> if i have to pick a letter,

i'll go for the oou and in the u.s., maybe even a v. the probabilities are at least there. we're expecting in the u.s. growth to accelerate quite significantly in the third and fourth quarter of this year and then this will take us into 2010. and then the consumers may be the ready to pick up and turn this into a sustained period. nevertheless, a strong recovery can start leading into a strong recovery based on a better positioned u.s. consumer. >> yeah. i guess i left off none of the above with your choice of the letter u. how could it be that you see the consumer coming back if we believe the blue chip survey, this is going to be a jobless

recovery. if u.s. unemployment is hovering around 9%, 10%, they're not going to be spending money in the stores, that's for sure. >> i believe it's too early to speak of a jobless recovery in the u.s. we're just seeing the unemployment numbers to stabilize in the u.s. the adjustment in the household sector is very well advanced. the savings rate is around 5% already. there is not that adjustment to bring consumerses to the wealth rate. >> thank you very much for that. let's head over to japan right now and talk about some economic data there. capital spending remains weak in japan. core machinery orders hit a record low in july, down 3.9%.

economists believe capital spending will probably not recover for the rest of this fiscal year. naomi, good to see you again. first of all, any signs of capital spending? >> even in the dismal data today, there were some encouraging signs. for instance, foreign orders actually picked up month on month and we know that those orders were one of the primary drivers of the slump, given that it was an export driven slump. we also saw the total machinery orders actually pick up and the -- it was bearish component was the domestic score, nonvolatile orders. so what we are starting to see are some positive signals of a trough, but we can still say that domestic demand is anything

but firm. so it still remain toes be seen whether a fine-tuned stimulus package from the incoming government will help that along. >> and speaking of stimulus, of course, we had the record fall in wholesale prices, as well, a sign that deflation is deepening in japan. could this throw it more stimulus to help it support the economy? >> well, the point about deflation is a nuanced one. even though we have negative headline and actually negative core, cpi and we've had these steep declines in corporate goods prices, the composition of price declines is still positive, meaning that the steepest declines are in raw materials, then media goods then finished goods.

what can prevent this? well, we can either see another huge slump in commodity prices or we can see an expansion of domestic demand. and i think the dpj will be under the gun to produce results on the latter, especially given that in q3 we'll have the base effects, the negative base effects of the commodity slump in q3 in 2008, which means year on year commodity prices are in danger of rising. >> naomi, today we have reports that the orangina beverage company might be purchased. that on the back of tekada buying millennium pharmaceuticals last year, just to make a few. do you think we're going to

continue to see japanese companies continue to take advantage of the strength of the yen, especially versus the dollar? >> i doubt that m&a flow, especially given liquidity is coming back will dry up completely, but i don't really see the same levels of direct investment outward that we saw last year. given that demand is weaker in the u.s., there remains less incentive to reinvest in those economies. instead, there is there are tax incentives to bring money back. it might be a two-way flow and there might be money coming back to japan. >> meanwhile, naomi, we continue to see the yen rising against the dollar. what sort of actions are we going to -- if people still think the dollar is going to

weaken, how is it going to impact the exporters? >> we have the data of stagflation in the u.s. and we probably have the daker of stagflation everything else that imports dollar price commodities. so in that case, for national voices for a new currency regime might rise. perhaps more voices might join that argument. as far as japanese exporters go, i think they suffer the largest hit that they have to suffer, and that didn't have anything to do with the yen. that had to do with the huge slump of demand in orders that we saw from abroad. the yen is really only important

because orders were so extremely predictable that it actually made a different in company profits. whereas when you see demand declining, it probably doesn't matter how cheep the yen gets, a deleveraging household isn't going to buy another toyota. >> naomi, thank you very much for that, bank of tokyo mitsubishi. well, from talking about japan, let's head over to india right now. hello, ayesha. >> hi. thanks for that, christine. it's come off controlly from the drop-off today. the nifty is going good. similar with the sensex, as well. but the decides appointment is the way it's come off from the top. and the lag in trail are the entire oil and gas so some counters are taking a beating over there. you have real estate and autos which are tumbling. in fact, the real estate index is now down about 1%. you have the inflation data

coming in and that, indeed, is on a higher trajectory this time around. in fact, it has come in higher and it's gone up about two ticks. we're still in the negative. more rumblings have come in this time around and news that we are picking up, they've given a nod to interest subvention forever short-term farm loans, as well. that is some bit of news. but meantime, stop-specific action continues for the third day in a running in jet air. the estimated losses stand is a good 19 kro rupees. with that, it's back to you. >> thank you for that. general motors has reported its board has approved a course of action on opel and will be

communicating its decision to germany as well as other eu governments. what that action is very much open to bbt. patricia, we seem to have gotten close a few times and we haven't got it. >> the proposal needs to be sent to the board and bring an announcement that might bring a saga to a close which started some months ago. it's very intz to see. the options still are, of course, for gm, to keep opel under its grip or to take it through structures insolvency. in both cases should that happen, we will see restructuring and job losses which is very much, of course, a slap in the face into the

current german government, i.e. angela merkel and her team simply because they have been adamant about opel doing a deal with magna, safeguarding jobs, safeguarding plants out here, which is more or less a part of their campaign, as well. should that, of course, not happen, that's really bad news from a political sense. but one thing is for sure, out here in germany, they don't want to hang themselves out there too much because of a political issue. however, it's always been the case between are we going to see a political driven or politically driven decision or a business-driven decision? and a business-driven decision will be more prone to drive the business. clearly, the entire industry has been suffering from overpass for quite some time. certainly very interesting, indeed, to see what the outcome is. should opel be kept by general motors, then that would be

potentially bad news in the run up to the election, ross. >> okay. hopefully, we'll be revealed. thanks for that, patricia. elsewhere here in europe, vander munden has filed for bankruptcy after the dutch brokerage if i am failed to find a buyer. last month, the group won creditor protection from the court saying it had a weak liquidity position. it was considering asset sales and significant write-downs. >> well, the number of americans who are threatened with losing their homes from july to august, more than 358,000 homeowners received a foreclosure notice last month or about 1 in every 357 homes.

that is still up 18% from one year ago. nevada had the highest foreclosure rate last month. meanwhile, texas instrument is raising its third quarter outlook amid the global economy in the semi conductor industry. those are used in every from mobile phones to industrial machinery. the company received sequential growth in embedded and wireless chips. t.i. says chip prices overall have remained steady. today in frankfurt, shares are up 0.5% and dutch chipmaker asml license raising guidance today, subsequent dentally, and those shares are surging on that news, up 6.5% right now. and the senate banking committee will hold a hearing today into the s.e.c.'s failure

to detect bernie madoff's ponzi scheme. david cots will testify. separately, madoff apparently coached several people on how to deal with questions from the s.e.c. about his business. in a 2005 phone call, madoff says, and i'm quoting now, you don't have to be brilliant to fool the s.e.c. the transcript was made public by the state of massachusetts as part of its settlement with madoff feeder fund fairfield glenn yich. madoff started the call by saying, obviously, this call never happened. wow. christine, over to you. >> well, you can get more news, videos, blogs, at at once place, cnbc.com. coming up on "worldwide exchange," gm has made its choice on opel.

>> and we'll take a look at the currency mblths, as well

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on the currency markets, the index has been hovering near dollar lows. euro/dollar hit 1.46 yesterday. just below that at 1.4548 at the moment. peter rosenstreich, market analyst at atm advanced currency markets is with us. peter, are we going to push the dollar over the next few weeks and months into new sort of bear lows? >> yeah, i believe so. i mean, i think the activities that we saw on tuesday in terms of dollar selling is still very much up in the air on exactly why it occurred. everybody is pretty much assured that something happened, but exactly what it is is still very much up in the air. our midterm and long-term focus was for dollar weakness. we believe structurally, the u.s. economy is just pushing itself sort of over the abyss with inflation. we see that capital is looking for higher premiums. u.s. capital is looking for higher premiums over its borders

and that flow of assets will allow the dollar to weaken significantly. so that longer term view is really what we think is going to drive the dollar for continued weakness. >> what is the chance of the dollar becoming -- sort of overtaking the yen as a global funding currency? >> well, you know, libor rates just recently switched in terms of the yen having a higher libor funding since 19, what, '93, roughly. so i think there's a very good chance to the dollar becomes a funding currency. our long-term view is for dollar weakness. whether it started its significant trend off on tuesday is very much up in the air, but we believe that the dollar is going to be up for serious weakness for years to come. >> peter, this is mike huckman in the states. you mentioned a moment ago that you're scratching your head as to why the dollar index fell to a one-year interday low yesterday. but could it be attributed to

the fact that there is more prevailing thinking now that it's the euro zone that's going to emerge from the recession a lot faster than here in the united states or is there a bunch of other stuff at work, as well? >> well, absolutely. i think the growth differential story has been on the back burn her. it's been waiting to come up in the front for quite a while. so it has a sort of level of backers, if you will been but there's still some significant other stories that are playing, obviously, the risk appetite story is one that is still very much entrenched. we have the u.n. that report for diversification out of the u.s. as a global trade currency, also playing into effect. we have the movement in china with renminbis and special rights in the imf. so there are a few factors that are just sort of waiting there to take the forerunner and the growth differential story has been there for quite a while. is that going to be the

front-runner? i think it's too early to tell right now. >> hey, peter, this is christine. i'm going to ask you about a currency you don't normally look at. the kiwi dollar kept interest rates at a record low. should we be buying the kiwi at these levels? >> well, you know, i think a lot commodity currencies are relatively robust. i think the risk appetite story, the commodities story is one that's going to allow continued appreciation. the kiwi is, you know, up in the air in terms of whether the central bank is really concerned about the recent strength in the kiwi. they claim that it's going to undermine their growth story. they continue to put out hawkish rhetoric that has been keeping currency traders sidelined. overall, we don't think they're going to move into that type of quantitative easing. more for the macro theme than

the underlying domestic story. >> all right. good to know, peter. thank you very much for that, peter rowsen striem, acm advanced currency markets. coming up next, we will be looking at headlines across the globe and bring you up to speed with all the top stories. >> plus, christine, opec keeps rates unchanged. we'll have the latest live from vienna.

i'm christine tan in asia. banks are leading the rally. stocks are rising 2% as a signal it could be the first in the world to raise rates. >> and i'm ross westgate in europe. a sealed envelope is on its way to german regulators regarding opel right now. and i'm mike huckman in the united states. president obama called on congress to stop bickering and to get back to work on craft ago health care reform bill.

>> let's take a look at futures. it looks like a flat to ever so slightly higher open. and so much for what happens historically in september, because month to date, the dow is up 0.5% and keep in mind we're only one-third of the way through the month. month to date, the s&p is up 1.25%. taking a look at the treasury market, let's see what the bund yield is sitting at right now at 3.73%. and on the benchmark, it's still at 3.48%. >> meanwhile, global equities are termer today. european stocks two hours into the trading session are nudging

higher. the ftse 100 closed yesterday for the first time about 5,000 since october. 5,024. up 75%. tech stocks are the best performer right now. on the currency markets, off the lows right now, dollar/yen, 92.13. euro/dollar is currently at 1.4554. sterling had a bank of england meeting, nunling back to 1.6516. >> ross, here in asia, we had a strong session. the decision by the r&b and the bank of korea to help keep rates low provided some psychological report. the nikkei 225 managed to close up a single one-day gain almost 2%. despite data which showed weak

capital spending. the kospi up 3.2%. a strong showing there. and the shanghai composite down 4.7%. and the hang seng itself, 1.1% and the australian market is up 1.1%. and this is how the crude picture was looking. we had opec keeping production output on hold. nymex light sweet crude, $72.24 a barrel. and brent is tacking on gains, as well, $70.45 a barrel one 62 cents. ross. >> let's get more on what's going on. joining us is mark oswald, strategist at monument securities. mark, good to see you. >> good morning. >> interesting things right now, you have to look at the stock prices. we have a pretty good appetite for bonds.

big farm buy interest despite the two-year low. how long can we run in dand em here? what's going on? >> as long as there's a lot of central bank money being pushed into the market, which there still is, we are in the situation where i suppose the best way to describe it is cash is not king. the pressure is now on. we're coming towards the year-end. a lot of people have been underinvested. you're getting their rewards for being under cash. we know yield and all the major economies for deposit rates are zero and the small investor is looking at its deposits and its money market mutual funds and taking money out and it's rushing into bond markets, particularly credit, into equity markets. meanwhile, on the other side of the equation, of course, you've got an improving situation in

export terms in a lot of the developing countries and none of them still in the majority of cases are being a bit more enlightened. they're accumulating reserve. >> where government bond yields will stay low even as -- >> asset prices go up. >> government bond yields, really, if you look at it since mid-june have been in the sideways trading range. and that looks likely to be the case. the thing that could give them major reports is if we start having doubts about the recovery. at the same time, that wall of money is the key feature. >> mark, this is mike in the states. just a moment ago, you may have heard me particular off the market anticipates performance here, at least for the three major indexes so far this month. some are saying that we're overdue for a breather, for a pullback. where do you sit?

>> i think for the time being, the key aspect is a lot of money that's going into the market is being funneled into what one calls the higher risk lower quality stocks and not enough into the higher yielding high cap stocks. so the risk at this particular point in time is at some stage, do the high cap, high yielding or relatively high yielding stocks also get a recycling boost? which might give us another big impact on the upside, simply because they are big component of these indices. so there is still some upside risk. i feel at some point over the next couple of weeks, particularly once we have index expiring out of the way next week, we are then due that correction. but i don't think it will happen before index expiring. >> hey, mark, this is christine here. you know, gold pulling back from the $1,000 level, i mean, we have news, of course, that barrett gold ending its gold

hedging program. is this a sign that, you know, gold is going to just lower now? >> i'm not so sure. i think that the primary drivers of gold are -- there is still a cautious community out there which doesn't really want to get involved in tracing equities or bonds. and they're looking at gold and saying, well, actually, the normal cost of carry arguments that go with gold don't really apply at the moment, given that we've got those very low cash rates. so i would imagine that is just actually a small correction and gold having underperformed most of the other commodity assets, whether it's food, metals, grains, could still actually have some upside. but in the short-term, it's just the question of a short-term correction to that sharp up move that we had last week. >> all right, mark, mark oswalt,

you'll be with us for the better part of the hour, but still with us on "worldwide exchange," as we were just discussing, september has seen more surge than slump. the ftse has broken the 5,000 level. what is next with equities? plus, we'll bring you the latest from the opec meeting in vienna. >> yes, very happy. any more questions? >> reporter: is compliance an issue? >> supply, no. >> reporter: what is an issue? what are you going to be discussing here? >> no issue. >> reporter: everything is perfe perfect? >> yes, absolutely. let me say that i never worry, okay? that's why i live as long as i am. >> reporter: how old are you? >> 74. welcome to progressive.com. you must be looking for motorcycle insurance.

you're good. thanks. so is our bike insurance. all the coverage you need at a great price. hold on, cowboy. cool. i'm not done -- for less than a dollar a month, you also get 24/7 roadside assistance. right on. yeah, vroom-vroom! sounds like you ran a 500. more like a 900 v-twin. excuse me. well, you're excused. the right insurance for your ride. now, that's progressive. call or click today.

opec ministers agreed to keep crude production steady as expected, gathering for the first time since may. they promised to trim supply by sticking more closely to exiting output levels. carolina sent us this report. >> reporter: what we've seen at the opec press conference, at 2:00 a.m. in the morning since this meeting took place during the night because of ramaden was

what some are calling a balance between optimism and reality, different than what politicians are sounding very optimistic that economic growth is going to start sooner than we expected and difference than what the imf is saying, that maybe they are going to review the economic growth for a quarter earlier than they were expecting. opec is saying that they are prepared for the worst if the worst is to come. they are prepared for prices going up and they are also prepared for prices going down. i spoke with the opec secretary general, mr. elbadri, and he told me that he had a very conservative view on when economic growth is going to come. >> if this stimulus package is working as we see them now, we'll see that the demand will increase maybe first quarter of next year and second quarter of next year, too. between first and second quarter of 2010 we'll see that demand.

>> meanwhile, mark, you look at the commodity prices, is it because we've got a lot of pressure on the dollar? or just we've got more risk appetite and people want to do something better with their cash? >> i think it's a combination of all three, but probably the most important factors in the short-term are definitely the dollar, weakness of the dollar is driving things up. the gains are perhaps not so impressive when one redenominates, say, into zeros. but it is also people chasing so-called risk assets in the hopes of a recovery. i think the problem is that recovery going to be one where all demand picks up substantially relative to where it is now? and you have to ask yourself, well, if consumers are going to be doin' in the dumps in the west for quite some time, then -- >> which is what all the central bankers and economistes and

politicians are telling us is going to happen. >> yeah. then one assumes that probably demand won't pick up quite as much. and it is largely based on hopes for demand out of asia in principal and to some extent much lesser extent latin america. and in terms of the production side of the economies in those parts of the world, seeing a sustained pick up from here and, therefore, require a lot more oil. i am not convinced particularly in the case of china where i just feel that there is a lending bubble going on and they are walking into the same sort of trap that russia walked into and has been suffering with ever since. so yes, there is a possibility that we could do another 10, maybe $15 on oil from here and assuming a cost in dollar rate, which is a very difficult thing to assume. but i'm not sure how much further up it can go after that.

>> mark, you talk about that lending bubble over in china. does that mean you think twice about investing in shanghai? >> i think so. the correction that we've seen is really nothing more than a correction to an excessive rally. it was really quite over the top the way that the chinese market went up. my problem is, the chinese banking system is unstable, per se. it's not got the strength that you've got elsewhere in established financial systems and even then not in particularly good state, as we all know. and at the moment, we seem to be lending in a fairly indiscriminant way, building up investment in production where one has to question where is that production output actually going to go? because i can't actually see a colossal pick up in ex ports. all i can see is base effects coming in and improving the overall year year numbers. ex ports in nominal terms,

you're not going to see a huge amount in demand and then you have to say, well, what are they going to do with all of that excess production and will the lending then start to be defaulted on. >> mark, thanks again, mark oswalt with monument securities. in the meantime, president obama said that it is time to stop bickering, stop playing games and start acting on health care reform in a speech wednesday night to a joint session of congress. the president says that the changes he wants would cost about $900 billion over the next decade. he says individuals should be required to carry basic health insurance. the president stood behind a proposal to compete with private insurers, but says he's open to other ideas. president obama says his plan is aimed at holding insurance companies accountable. >> insurance executives don't do this because they're bad people. they do it because it's profitable. as one former insurance

executive testified before congress, insurance companies are not only encouraged to find reasons to drop the seriously ill, they are rewarded for it. all of this is in service of meeting what this former executive called wall street's relentless profit expect ages. >> and president obama says a collective failure to meet the challenge of overhauling the nation's health care system has led us to a breaking point. those are his words. in a fresh sign of urgency, senator baucus says his finance committee will meet in two weeks to begin drafting legislation whether or not democrats and republicans have reached any agreement by then. general motors wraps up its two-day meeting with a shake-up of the automaker's management team at the top. cfo ray young will reportedly lee the company after an 18-month stint that included an effort to stave off bankruptcy.

>> mike, it appears that a resolution on the opel sales could be nearer today. general motors will hole a press conference later to provide an update on its european unit. the u.s. giant haas is planning on briefing german officials after a board meeting that may have led finally to final decision. shares in morrison, meanwhile, are trading to the down side after a strong week of gains. this comes as britain's food retailer warned that the second half would slow when food inflation declined. the group's ceo says expansion plans are pretty much on track. >> we're investing a lot, both in capital and in people. we've added 5,000 new jobs in the first half. we'll continue to add jobs n second. and a lot of that is about opening new space.

>> well, japanese beveragemaker santori says it is in talks to buy soft drinkmaker oragina from blackstone and lion kalal. suntory would probably pay more than the $2.6 billion the two funds paid for oragina in 2006. it is in talk toes be sold to larger rival, kiran. a larger multibillion dollar deal out of australia's project, chef wron, which has invested in the project, has agreed to sell nearly $3 million tons a year to companies in south korea. under the agreement, chevron will sell part of the equity stake in the project, reducing its holding to 47%. it declined to reveal financial details, but it's said the deal

could be worth more than $60 billion of ex ports over five years. gm has shaken up its board and sent a negotiator to be lynn to deliver a sealed decision on opel to german authorities. we look at how that's likely to be received, next. welcome to the now network. population: 49 million. right now 1.2 million people are on sprint mobile broadband. 31 are streaming a sales conference from the road. eight are wearing bathrobes. two... less. - 154 people are tracking shipments on a train. - ( train whistles ) 33 are im'ing on a ferry. and 1300 are secretly checking email... - on a vacation. - hmm? ( groans ) that's happening now. america's most dependable 3g network. bringing you the first and only wireless 4g network. sprint. the now network. deaf, hard of hearing and people with speech disabilities access www.sprintrelay.com.

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ahead of the u.s. open, we're tracking global stocks. keep wanting to edge a little higher, we want to see where we stand right now kicking off with becky in london. >> just a little higher for the ftse 100. we're off the highs in the session with gains at about 4 points or so at this stage. but that still leaves us above 5,000. home retail is the biggest decliner on the ftse 100. this retailer is down by about 4.6% after they told us that their sales have both declined, declined less than expected, but still, declined in the second quarter bringing the shares lower. also, thomas cook, that's the biggest gainer this morning, thomas cook and tui travel on

whether the creditor bank arcandor has placed the stake they hold in thomas cook. that is obviously having an effect on the shares of thomas cook today. patricia, how is it looking in germany? >> well, we're softer. on the other hand, i have to say volumes are really good today, about 52 million shares are traded already. normally when it speak around this hour, it's about 24, 25 million. so we have real players in the market. a lot of them in the financial stocks. so commerzbank is still in proposition, but a lot less than the 10% we saw earlier on, up about 5% -- no, 4% at the moment. s.a.p. doing very well, up about 2.2%. good news coming through from asml having that stock. thyssenkrupp getting a boost up right now. deutsche postbank is underperforming right now. over to paris. >> and in paris, the tech sector

is doing well today. on the back of texas instruments, raised its guidance yesterday. also in good shape this morning, alcatel-lucent, despite the statement from the chinese telecom equipmentmaker stating that there were no negotiations with alcatel in order to develop products together or talking about an alliance. and also, let's have a quick look at carrefour, the largest european retailer stated a few moments ago that it is looking at expansion plan necessary russia. they're looking at different opportunities in the country, including some possible acquisition. we know that carrefour has been looking at this acquisition in the past. the stock is down 0.7%. let's have a look at the asian markets with adam. >> thank you, stephane. it was a strong session for the asian markets with some of these markets like south korea and taiwan and hong kong hitting more than 12-month highs.

in japan, we had a strong session, as well, in terms of the core machinery orders as well as wholesale prices. panas on nic was given the go ahead to take over sanyo electric. but now the eu is extending the trust review of that acquisition. they will be extending, apparently, financing for that. finally, metallurgical corp. of china, they've raised about $2.8 billion for a planned ipo in the shanghai market. this is according to sources, the shanghai composite, though,

ending the day down by 0.7%. on that note, back to mike in the u.s. >> thanks, adam. u.s. investors will get a pair of economic reports before the opening bell. weekly jobless claims are forecast to fall by 5,000 to a total of 565,000. at 8:30, july trade deficit numbers will be released. the gap is expected to have widened slightly at $27.5 billion bucks. dennis lockhart will be in jacksonville, florida, this afternoon. treasury secretary tim geithner will go before the congressional panel in washington, overseeing the t.a.r.p., testifying about the government's handling of the $700 billion financial bailout program. that's at 1:00 new york time. and then geithner will take part in a special town hall meeting

hosted by cnbc's erin burnett and steve leisman. and you can catch banking on geithner at 7:00 new york time only on cnbc. that is your global stock watch. christine. >> and the bank of england looks like it's set to stay pat on interest rates. we'll talk about quantitative easing and those exit strategies, as well, after the break.

and it is 30 minutes past the hour right now. here are the top business stories from around the world. in the united states, president obama calls on congress to stop bickering and playing games and get to work on crafting a health care reform bill. >> here in europe, gm has made its decision on opel. we don't know what it is, but a sealed envelope is on its way to german regulators right now. >> and here in asia, banks are

leading the rally. it's a signal it could be the first in the world to raise rates. >> and welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we would like to take a look at the futures here in the united states ahead of the open. they're looking at pretty much a flat open at this point, but remember, things looked similar, maybe to the down side at this time yesterday and then the markets turned around when we had the goldman sachs call on dow component general electric and then we had mcdonald's coming out with its relatively positive same-store sales numbers for august. and maybe the same thing will happen in three hours time when we get weekly jobless claims as well as the trade deficit numbers this morning. but again, it is looking like a flat to maybe slightly higher open here in the states. moving on to the treasury market, let's look at the yield on the ten-year t-note.

it finished at 3.48% versus the bund. it's at 3.35% this morning. ross, i'll send it over to you. >> thanks for that, mike. we were not quite near the session highs for european stock markets, 2 1/2 hours into the trading day. the ftse cnbc global 00 is up, as you can see, literally in the last ten minutes or so we've dipped down a little bit. the ftse 100 is just on that 5,000 mark. closed at 5005 yesterday. that's what we want to know. xetra dax just back below the 5006 mark.

dollar/yen, 9276. euro/dollar, 1.4535. the dollar is gaining more ground on that right now. sterling/dollar, 1.6521 ahead of the bank of england rate decision. christine. >> hey, ross. risk taking is being prompted by the rbi and bank of korea. provided some psychological support. this despite data that showed a record low number in machinery. investors there keeping an eye on economic data coming out tomorrow. the hang seng is up .1% on hopes of a corporate recovery and the aussie market is up 1.1%. this is how the crude oil picture is looking for nymex,

$72.02 a barrel. and brent is tacking on gains, $70.28 a barrel. mike. >> thanks, christine. president obama says it is time to stop bickering, top playing games and start acting. the president said that the changes he wants would cost about $900 billion over the next decade. he said individuals should be required to carry basic health insurance. the president stood behind a proposal for a government-run insurance program to compete with private insurers, but he said he is open to other ideas and he will not insist on a public option. >> i have no interest in putting insurance companies out of business. they provide a legitimate service and employ a lot of our friends and neighbors. i just want to hold them accountable. >> president obama said a selective failure to meet the challenge in the health care

system led us to a breaking point and in a fresh sign of urgency, senator baucus said his committee will meet in two weeks' time to determine whether or not they have reached any agreement by then. >> mark oswalt is still with us and malcolm, i'd like to start with you. some pretty tough talk from the president last night regarding the health insurers. he wants it against the law to drop coverage for sick people, against the law to deny coverage if you've got a pre-existing condition. do you expect that sector or subsector in particular to take a hit today? and how are you positioning yourself with it generally speaking, not just today? >> yeah. we do expect it will probably see a little bit of a slide today. we have generally deemphasized health care this year. where we do have focus on health care, it's in areas like medical

and areas that don't have as much price pressure that should not be as much impacted by potential legislation coming out of congress. the biggest problem we've had with the obama administration in this process is that until now, they really haven't come out with a plan. >> on the upside moving on from health care, we did see texas instruments and yet another major player, the dutch company come out with raised guidance in the semi conductor space late yesterday andover night. do you think that could spur a rally in the tech sector today? >> well, we have liked tech, but we've not liked hardware so much as we've liked software. you've got microsoft with their os-7. it's due out later this po, i believe. and a lot of purchase decisions have been delayed until that comes out. once that comes in, once the

software has been released, then you have the ability for businesses to go back in and start buying again because they know what the software is going to look like and he requirements are going to be. to while we expect the chips aren't going to fall much further, we think that the expected increase probably is a little ways off. >> malcolm, it's ross here. how much longer do you think investors will want to keep putting money to work here before they think, you're not far away from the year-end. when are we going to see people booking prices that causes the volatility that we're expecting? >> well, typically, you see some of that profit taking happened last month, particularly toward the end of the month as the mutual fund starts to do their window dressing. and in october and early november, as individuals start to do their tax loss selling in anticipation of year-end tax issues. so that pressure we expect will probably come toward the end of this month and into october, but we think the end of the year, november and december will probably end fairly strong.

>> mark, you sort of go along with that? you were talking earlier how it might be going until you get, what, options expire next week? yeah. we've got futures expiring at the end of next week. after that, we start getting to the point where we've got the particularly strong elements in the market. the speculative element which is have been in receipt of a lot of money which has come out of central banks will probably be the thinking, well, some of the profits that they've got to book are particularly on high yielding corporate credit, some of the trashier elements of the market have been described, the riskier currencies and riskier commodities are more likely to go early than late. so we are in danger, i think, in the -- in september and throughout october period of some quite extreme volatility. volatility has been pegged down into the ground in most areas.

and we're now at a stage where you really don't -- given that we've got a basically central banking government sponsored rally, you wonder if people will just say, right, i think this has gone quite far enough. and then at that point, the underlying liquidity goes we've got a lot more volatility. >> hey, malcolm, let me pick up here. gold pulling back just a little bit, do you think this is a short-term correction? would you be a buyer of gold at these levels? >> we've generally not been a buyer of gold at all. we really think gold is an investment long-term probably isn't a good investment. short-term, it's very difficult to tell the short-term swins. it's more of a speculator's tool. we think all basic materials will probably do well. gold will probably rise with all boats in that regard, but gold as itself is an investment this year hasn't been that good of an investment and we don't think it's going to be that good

through the balance of this year. >> malcolm, we'll have to leave it there. we want you to continue through the day with us. of course, mark will continue to be with us, as well, mark oswalt, strategist, monument securities. right now, let's head over to tokyo and check in on the trading day there. kitadai-san. >> thank you, christine. tokyo stocks rebounded sharply as investors returned to buyback shares hit by the recent decline. the nikkei rose more than 200 points for the first time since september 1st. the markets shrugged off worse than expected july machinery core orders and managed to stay strong despite the yen's rise to a seven-month high against the dollar. mitsubishi ufj financial group and sumitomo financial group surged on a technical rebound. investors decided it was fooi time to buy back mega bank issues which have lost more than 10% over the past month.

meanwhile, high tech issues such as elpida memory were boosted by texas instruments earnings upgrade yesterday. toshiba shares rose 179% after announcing that its u.s. unit, westinghouse electric has begun talks with the nuclear field processing operations. after the bell, sumitomo financial group and daiwa securities said it will end their control of jv. to make the venture a wholly owned subsidiary. the deal will take place around the end of december and is spec'ded to cost about 200 billion yen. that's all from tokyo. back to you, christine. >> thank you very much for that, nozomu kitadai from the nikkei. mike. >> still to come, a possible

blip in foreclosure data. does it change expectations for housing data or is it too soon to say?

welcome back to cnbc's "worldwide exchange." here are some of the top stories

we are watching from around the world right now. general motors board wraps up its two-day meeting with a shake-up of the management team. the cfo ray young will reportedly leave the company after a year and a half in that job. that included the failed effort to stave off bankruptcy. young had been part of a small team put together by fritz henderson lately to put together key strategy decisions. gm has decided what to do with its opel decision and will discuss the decision with german officials today in berlin and a news conference is scheduled for 1430 cet. christine. mike, capital spending remains low in japan. economists are now concerned that capital spending will probably not recover for the rest of this fiscal year. wholesale prices also slid 8.5% in august. analysts say deepening deflation could force the bank of japan to

keep its ultra money management easing in place for a long time to come. south korea's central bank held interest rates study at a record low of 2% for a seventh consecutive month. the bank of korea sent a strong signal that it would hike rates if the property boom continues, even if the means moving before other major central banks. meanwhile, no change in interest rates for the reserve bank of new zealand, either. the bank says it is more inclined to keep rates unchanged at 2.5% until late 2010 saying a recovery is patchy and the growth outlook is still weak. >> final thought from mark oswalt strategist at monument securities. mark, the bank of england meeting coming out a little later. is there anything we need to know more right now about central bank policy? i mean, you know, they've advertised how much they're going to do more in quantitative easing and they're going to stay with it for quite some time? >> yeah. i think in terms of the bank of

england, the policy has become rather haphazard, so there have been interestingly this week that there has been a lot of talk that they might do something. i think it would make policy more haphazard. but if we look at the indication that they wanted, they're not far away from a move. one has to remember in this context, that as much as rates came down all at the same time, when rates start rising, they may not start rising in individual countries for any reasons related to the health of the global economy. for instance, in korea, it is more than likely to be related to a pick up in the housing market and the fact that household debt is so colossal there. and it's recognizing those specifics that -- >> they're targeting asset prices, central banks around the world, will that be the new management coming out of this global crisis, we have to put asset prices back into our thinking and limg it to monetary

policy? >> i think they need to and i think perhaps the most important aspect is it's not about ricking bubbles. it's more that you might have a situation just as we had before where inflation at the goods level says we have colossal asset price inflation. who is to say that in this particular round we don't have asset price deflation if we worry about the global economy, but at the same time, we'll have goods price inflation. >> i'm not sure that is what we've been doing. i'll have to think that one through. marc, good to see you today. mike. >> thanks, ross. up next on "worldwide exchange," the dow traded in positive territory for 96% of the day yesterday. what's in store for today? we're going to look ahead to the trading day on wall street, coming up next. -d-d-d-d-d-d-d-dd

okay. we're under ten minutes away from "squawk box." joe is with us to tell us what's coming up today. hey, joe. >> hey, ross, a big speech last night. we will talk about the president's appeal for health care reform and the reaction. we have congressman peter

rosscom, they're going to face off against president obama's presentation on capitol hill last night. we'll get reaction from the corner office, as well. cvs's caremark tom ryan will tell us how reform could impact his business and others and then fortune is about to unveil its list of the most powerful women in business. we have a cup of them joining us on "squawk box," including influential banking analyst meredith whitney, yahoo! oe carol barts and former chief and the economy. plus, breaking news on jobs, the weekly jobless claims, that report comes at 8:30 eastern time. "squawk box" will start right at the top of the hour. it's going to be a good show today, and i'm not just saying that this time, ross.

>> you never just say it, joe, right? >> right. i won't say it if i don't mean it, unlike some people. >> what? >> well, not you or you or -- go! >> joe, looking forward to it. thank you. >> i wonder who he's talking about. let's get ahead to the u.s. trading day with malcolm poly. malcolm, welcome back. earlier on, you mentioned that in health care, you do think it could take a hit today on the back of president obama's speech last night. but one subsector that you like is what you called info mattock. i'm assuming that means electronic medical reports and if so, give me some of the names there and why you like them. >> right. the name that we like the most is actually united healthcare. medicalinfomattock business within united healthcare is fairly small, but it's very rapidly growing. we realize that you get exposure

to the health care insurance industry, but we think there are very well situated in order to take advantage of that. >> and so do you own it? what disclosures do you have, number one, and number two, why would you own unh if you said the sector is going to take a hit today based on the president's comments last night? we've owned unh since the early part of this year. within the organization. i do not own it personally. but just within the organization. but we like the -- their business. we think that they are the best quality name in the business. we like their investment portfolios, again, very high quality. their cost structure is fairly low. they got their management issues behind them. particularly with the recent settlement with the s.e.c. over options dating issues. they are one of the largest players in the business on a nationwide scale and, like i

said, we like the -- there are small businesses inside them. we think there are a lot of good things to talk about with unh, even though you may have some pressures today, given the speech last night. >> hey, malcolm, this is christine. jobless claims trade deficit data are out today. will they have much of an impact or will it be health care driving trade today? >> well, we think it will probably be health care driving trading. it's always interesting to see what comes out of the jobs data. if you get a dramatically better or worse number than -- i suppose the market would take a clue from that. but we think the focus will be health care, health care, health care and will be for some time as we go through the next few weeks and months with the issues going through, working there way through in washington. >> and malcolm, right now, we're sitting one-third of the way through november and so far, this month is not performing like it does historically. do you think it will in the end or are we going to buck the

trend this month? >> i think we very well could buck the trend this month, although we think the latter half of the month will probably see a little pressure just from some natural forces that take place. as i said earlier, window dressing from the mutual fund standpoint and individuals taking a look at their portfolios, even with a number of gains, they're probably still sitting on a number of losses from last year and they'll be looking to take those losses in preparation for tax time. >> again, that would be a third of the way through the month of september. malcolm poly, chief investment officers with stewart capital investors, thanks for joining us. let's take another look at the futures here in the united states 3 1/2 hours before the open. they have moved down within the last half hour. and that is it for today's program. i'm mike huckman in the united states. >> i'm ross westgate in europe. >> and here in asia, i'm

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