fall into the health care area, but companies like cigna and express scrips, on the flip side, stocks like cardinal health, it was downgraded to market perform from outperform, so that's hurting it. met life is a health insurer and aon is a broker, so they're looking to sell if they're a big, new competitor. i guess the big give and take is the hmo index is kind of stuck right now, but we are seeing early reaction. >> thank you very much. and now on cnbc.com, submit your video or e-mail questions for treasury secretary geithner, but mark, it's a special day because we've got this big town hall and we're going to talk about everything from taxes to deficits to china and it's going to be a very big day for the

ratings average on "street signs" today that's because mark haines is going to host tonight. >> i'm doing "street signs" and you're doing this town hall special at 7:00 p.m. tonight. be there or be square. i'll see you at 2:00. >> i'll see you on the town hall and tomorrow morning. thanks so much for joining us. we are waiting for breaking news out of the oil pits. this could move some oil markets as soon as we get the numbers out of sharon. >> all right. stocks are driving down. stocks are up today, which is pretty darn good. we'll wait on the oil inventory numbers. it has been flux waiting north of $70. there's crude oil, $72.20. >> here they come.

down 5.9 million barrels when it comes to crude oil inventories and we'll watch the chart and get sharon ready. >> don't you think the dollar's the biggest factor right now? >> absolutely. with all the commodities. >> we didn't get much of a opec announcement. stocks are drifting higher boosted by positive news by proctor and gamble. much more on that coming up. right now, the dow is up 21 points. we had pretty good unemployment claims drop today. the s&p is up 2.6 points. the nasdaq is following behind. let's get some intensive detail on this discussion with scott wapner down in the new york stock exchange. hello, scott. can you intensely bring us up to date? >> larry, i'll play off what you said in terms of watching the

dollar in the oil market. we're watching the direction of the dollar in the stock market. as it pulled off the lows of the day, you saw some commodities and material stocks move weaker. let's talk about the overall situation here in the market and really those better than expected outlooks we got today probably the reason why the dow is in positive territory and a big boost to the major averages in general. proctor and gamble reaffirmed their unemployer sales. the new information was they said they expect to return to sales growth. general mills, they see above initial target. texas instruments, a new high, seeing it move, a fractional move to the upside. but looking for stronger revenue. then corning as well, a smaller

decline. airlines as well getting a bump by an upgrade by jpmorgan. let me note here that commodity stocks are up now, so there are a lot of cross currents in this market today. we're watching a dollar, the direction of oil and as i said, commodities, which started to move lower have moved up. >> one day after delivering a major speech, president obama continues to keep the pressure on health careinsurance. john harwood in d.c. with the details. >> he is trying to keep the pressure on insurance companies as well as his partisan opponents on the republican side. he reiterated a lot of the message he had from his speech last night including the line that he had in which he said he wasn't going to waste time anymore with people trying to kill his plan as opposed to improving it.

>> we don't need more partisan distractions. if there are real concerns about any aspect of my plan, let's address them. if there are real differences, let's resolve them. but we have talked to issue to death. the time for talk is winding down. >> here, it's important to recognize what he's saying when he said the time for bickering has passed. he's not contemplating serious negotiations with a large number of republicans. he knows at this point, the white house has decided by and large are going to be opposing his plan. he's aiming at a couple of republicans, olympia snowe of maine is the critical one. her colleague, susan collins is the other one. >> john harwood, government insurance options very much front and center. there may be derivatives on

that.s the congressional budget office does not agree with his cost savings. what about a blue dogs in the democratic caucus and house? >> the congressional budget office doesn't agree because the finance committee essentially tilted towards the finance committee bill. the bill of the senate. they believe the cbo has already given a tentative embrace that they're waiting for a formal scoring of that. if they get that, then they're going to be able to argue that we have been certified as achieved the president's goal of not adding to the deficit. one of the ways they do that is by going after insurance companies with this excise tax. that's something health economists say will bend the cost koufr. >> if the neutral is not necessarily controlling costs and a lot of folks fear that meeps higher taxes. what's the state of the millionaire tax? >> it's, i believe, dead.

because by embracing that excise tax as the principal source of new revenue, he is doing two things at the same time. killing off that millionaire surtax the house was leaning towards passing. i talked to a blue dog last night who said now that that's gone, i can embrace this excise tax. but secondly, the deficit neutral don't mean reducing costs, but the insurance surtax is credited by the cbo with bending the cost curve down over the long-term. >> thanks very much. let's take a look at this. how are the markets reacting to obama's latest attempt? let's bring in thomas carroll and steve nicholas. we have david joy, chief market strategist at river source investments. tom, what stands out today, hmos, insurance companies, how are they trading, how do you read it?

>> relative to the speech, i don't know that we heard anything new nor was i expecting anything new. stocks opened mixed and i think that's where they are today. they're down a bit, up a bit. if you look across hospitals and segments of health care, i think we're still trying to figure out what this means. >> when i listened to the tone of that speech, i heard him demonizing the insurance companies. i hear that and don't want to look at these guys for a long, long time until i know what's going on. is that a right way to look at it? >> that's certainly a risk aversive way of looking at it. i don't think that's new. here we are with a group of stocks that basically, these aren't going away. they are going to have some kind of material role to play. on average, we're still below

trough evaluation models. united health care, large cap, liquid stop. it's probably going to work higher from here with some kind of reform that doesn't kill these guys, which is the way we're looking. companies like health net becoming a better focused company in the southeast. more regionalized, more package for sale. >> they're going to survive basically. all right. >> let me just pick up on this insurance side because i agree with michelle. not only are they going to take a higher tax which is going to cut into profits, but the idea that they're going to have to figure out how to insure everybody who walks in the door regardless of prior health conditions, regardless of preconditions, now, how are they going to pay for that without jacking up premiums elsewhere and what is that going to do to their bottom line? >> well, i think you've

identified the problem, larry in that it is not going to be the shareholders absorbing the price, but the policyholders. i think it makes this landscape for the insurance industry a very -- scary from an investment point of view. i'd stay away. there are a couple of exceptions and i think your other guests identified them. united health care is probably in pretty good shape, but the sector itself is too fraught with uncertainty because we don't know where all the details lie. this is going to take a while despite a compelling speech in a big theatre. >> and david, what about the overall market when you look at the potential costs that a plan like this could impose on the u.s. economy? what does that mean for the entire stock market in the long run? >> well, you know, if costs go up dramatically, it becomes an issue x but i think given the speech last night, i agree that nothing really has changed and i

think it makes the prospect of the big overhaul of health care as suspect as before the speech. as a result, i think on balance the market is breathing a little sigh of relief saying, we're probably going to get some reform, but probably incremental. not the sweeping legislation talked about a couple of months ago. i don't think this is a big hurdle for the market. >> some of these stocks are trading up. there are some green arrows, but tom, back to you. as you may know, 11 million medicare and managed accounts may be wiped out. those are people that use medicare and shop around in private insurance. 8 million health savings accounts may be wiped out. those are part of the house bill. how is that going to ask the insurers in the hsa game and medicare advantage game? sounds like another big loss of plans and revenues. >> very good point. certainly on the medicare advantage side of things,

reimbursement to these health plans and companies participating, a lot of uncertain uncertainty. companies like humanna, health spring, a lot of the uncertainty there. at the same time, i want to have more of a positive view longer term on the medicare population given that eligibility is exploding. >> but medicare costs are going to get slammed. mr. obama tried to make the case last night there aren't going to be substantive cost savings. very few independent analysts agree with him. rates are going to be slammed and that has got to affect insurers among other health providers. >> and once the price comes down and can we continue to make a margin on that. personal opinion is that i don't see how the government can exclude these guys given the number of innovations they've

brought to managing chronic illness and being part of the rationing element for this population. >> it's just who's going to do it for us. us or the government. thank you, gentlemen. more on this important debate dividing lawmakers and the american public. >> two senators are up next to discuss it live from capitol hill. you are watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. get hotel price assurance? it's a one-two punch of savings -- pow! pow! lower hotel booking fees mean you get a lower total price. plus, if another orbitz customer then books the same hotel for less, we send you a check for the difference, automatically. even more freedom to the freest country on earth. so why should you be penalized for talking to someone, just because they're on another network. shouldn't you be able to call any mobile... on any network, at any time? it's a free country. knock yourself out. announcer: introducing the revolutionary any mobile, anytime. now on the sprint network you're free to call 250 million mobile phones nationwide

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president obama brought his pitch for reform to the public last night. we have two senators here to tell us what they think. benjamin cardin and john noous from wyoming. anything the president say last night that gets more republicans to come on board to this? >> i don't think so. i don't think there was anything new. he had a bigger audience, but i thought it was the same message as he was given in august and i wish he would have listened to what people were saying more, which is they want to get costs down, but i think that he said it's either the status quo or this big, government-run plan. i think people want something that runs health care without a takeover. >> senator cardin, it sounded a lot like basically mr. obama's going to go the partisan route.

is that the case, sir? >> not at all. i think he made it clear that a large part of his proposals came from republicans and democrats. i think his reference to senator mccain was clear that he's seeking is broadest possible support for reform. >> specifically, sir, if i can just challenge your, i understand about local state ideas on health -- on trial lawyers and reform, but in so far as the larger package is concerned, i don't see republican options in there. what am i missing? >> if you look at the four bills already reported, you're going to find a lot of republican amendments adopted. i think there's a lot that could bring us together. i can't tell you how republicans are going to vote and there's clearly a strategy to make this personal rather than the issue

itself and that's unfortunate. we're going to get a better bill if more members participate. >> larry and i were talking during the break and it seems the biggest problem is one nobody ever talks about and the republicans aren't, which is you really got to dismantle this reliance on employer-based health care. that doesn't mean you go for government-based health care, but it would drive a lot more people to the private market and we'd have more choices out there. but nobody seems to want to fight the insurance companies on that. >> think about my kids. they may have six, seven, eight, nine, ten jobs over the course the course of their career. we need to get down the costs and there are ways to do that. the president just kind of gave lip service in my opinion to the lawsuits. i think we do much more in that.

i was disappointed in what he had to say about that. we know about all the defensive medicine. the studies have shown that tests are done by doctors. ordered tests are expensive, but i want to make sure all the bases were covered. we know that where there is malpractice liability reform, what we do is cost of care goenz down, insurance costs go down and doctors move to those areas. >> senator cardin, a lot of the big insurance companies are hiding behind their local, state positions. isn't there really a majority favorable support in the senate for interstates deregulation of insurance to offer consumers and patients real choice that might bring down some costs? >> i think you're going to find some of those provisions in this bill. the exchanges do permit for a broader amount of competition. one of the things the president

mentioned last night, we need more competition in the health insurance field. is bottom line is the president was very clear. at the end of the day, this bill is going to bring down health care costs in america. it's not going to add to the deficit and that's what i think the american people wanted to hear. he also made it clear we're going to have more choices. if you're happy with your current health insurance, you have a better chance of being able to preserve that under the reform. >> we heard from the president in a way he demonized a lot of the health insurance companies. do you think that is constructive? >> i don't think he demonized the health insurance companies. he just gave out the facts, that they're making a lot of money. there's a lot of money spent today not going tor health care. he's also going to use private health insurance in fixing the

problem. >> senator, what's your view? >> these are the lobbyists he's been meeting with. you've got to take care of the american people. the president when he was in the senate, voted against that. i think individuals who buy their own insurance ought not to be penalized. >> just on that point, are there interstate components to this so-called insurance exchange? i think a lot of people are confused about that. does the exchange allow us here in new york to go to georgia where you can buy blue cross-blue shield for less than 100 bucks a month premium. >> you can't do it now. some of the details still need to be ironed out and the secretary of health and human services said don't be

distracted by the details, but the american people want to focus on the details. >> thanks for coming on. >> we buy our own car insurance. i would rather buy my own. >> and i don't want to defend the big insurance companies. >> interstate commerce. coming up, another embarrassment for the s.e.c. another piece of evidence from bernie madoff. and foreclosure rates are hovering at record highs, but there's a bright spot. i'm racing cross country in this small sidecar,

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are out. diana olick has much more. >> the good news is that filings are holding steady. the bad news is that they're holding steady at record levels and could go higher. the latest from realty track, total numbers are flat with over 358,000 properties receiving a foreclosure notice. when you break it down by type, the fall was largely due to a 13% drop in reos. the other categories, which are initial defaults, bank notices, actually rose 3%. >> unfortunately, the foreclosure problem is not going away anytime soon. there are more coming in than are being cleared out the other end and the primary catalyst is now different. it's job losses. >> so why is it filling up?

modifications. banks are holding up the final process trying to get those eligible into the modifications, but today's defaults are occurring not because of faulty mortgage prugts, but because of job losses. without income, most borrowers will not qualify for a modification. this is why banking analyst meredith whitney sees more on home prices. >> no bank underwrote alone. there's no doubt home prices go down from here. it's just a question of when. >> she had written in an august report that she sees prices falling another 25% over the next two years. >> aggressive, i like that. informationally, and i admit that jobs situation is dreary at best, we did report this morning that unemployment claims fell

26,000. the four-week average is now 570,000. the latest is 550,000. there is a wee bit of progress going on there. >> the question is, what's going to happen going forward when these people who have lost jobs, will they find jobs again, will the banks give them some kind of three-month hold. unless it goes dramatically down, we're going to see foreclosures be a part of the numbers. up next, more convincing evidence from bernie madoff himself. the convicted ponzi schemer caught on audio tape three years before his confession. >> we're going to roll the sound and try to make sense of it. the s.e.c. missed it again. what else is new? you're watching cnbc. we're always new and fresh. first in business worldwide. [ engine powers down ] gentlemen, you booked your hotels on orbitz.

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welcome back. the markets are up a little bit. dow's up 20 points, the s&p up two points. unemployment did fall this morning. that was a plus. the obama speech last night thus far seems to have no appreciate affect on trade. and the bernie madoff saga continues. he's now heard on tape in 2005 talking to executives about how to get around the s.e.c.

scott cohn has more with the details. >> you can hear them, too, online. how do you deal with these s.e.c. guys? just laugh them off. he knows how they work. this tape is from 2005. madoff still in his hey day, but the s.e.c. wants to ask his biggest investors, fairfield greenwich, so he gets on the phone with two executives to get their stories straight. >> obviously, this never took place. >> it was subpoenaed by the massachusetts secretary of state which just reached a settlement. this tape was exhibit one. madoff tells the executives whatever you do, don't tell them you have anything in writing.

no that he was worried at all. these s.e.c. guys, he says they're pushovers, most will be working on wall street within a couple of years. so this was in december, the holiday season of 2005. at one point, he puts the call on hold for another call, some charity asking for money. he says if i get another solicitation for charity, i'll kill myself. we have the full tape on

cnbc.com. >> and it's worth a listen? >> it is. >> what are they specifically talking about here? in other words, fairfield greenwich involved in the ponzi scream. when madoff says we didn't have to conversation, what do you think specifically he's referring to that they are signing on to? >> it's one of half a dozen investigations is s.e.c. botched. this one was looking into whether he was acting as an investment adviser. madoff was telling them wa wha to say that he was just investing. >> joining us now, head of financial services at goldberg. were you around in 2005, one of these guys he was scoffing out? >> i was around, but not at the s.e.c. >> what do you think when he

says you're a pushover? >> first, this is information coming from what i call a soes owe path who looks to exaggerate reality. >> he got away with it. >> i can't defend the actions of the s.e.c. and their failed examinations of him. obviously, they didn't do their job correctly, but the reality is, i came in every day, busting my hump to protect people. >> you're a private industry making more money. did you have your eye on in the long-term, you're going to be easier on people. >> and aren't you glad you came hear this morning. we know about the s.e.c., but let me just ask you, your legalness if you will. what are they talking about here? because madoff's in jail, going to die in jail.

but that crowd is not there. >> massachusetts just dropped the charge of fraud. >> scott's got this tape, they've dropped the fraud. sounds like they were up to their eyeballs of the fraud madoff is in jail for. why aren't they being busted? front page of the "new york post" and you could go hammer their kneecaps. >> there's civil and criminal. from the criminal case, this transport is not indicative they're aware of or had some involvement. >> how -- >> these conversations took place. >> and on the tape, they're nodding and winking. scott's a great reporter. he's got the goods on it. you sound like you're still at the s.e.c. i was trying to get you out of michelle's hook. i'm putting you back on. >> the s.e.c. shouldn't even

exit. are you ever going to be able to stop fraud? >> no. the realities of lawsuits against the government, the victims bear some responsibility as well. madoff was surrounded by -- i'm not suggesting -- >> they were part of the people that created this scam. they had to know. they had phony bookkeeping along with madoff. >> first of all, they're not off the hook yet. they are being sued. massachusetts dropped the fraud charge. they settled. they said it was to deal with these other lawsuits. >> what about prison? >> we don't know yet. it hasn't been that long of a time. it's difficult to pin on them they know about the ponzi

scheme, but clearly, they were trying to -- >> they say, okay -- >> they were talking about madoff being a registered investment adviser. >> why are they saying we never had this conversation and they say, our lips are sale because this indicates that he was an investment adviser, but doesn't necessarily mean they knew about the fraud. >> what do you think taped the conversation? fairfield greenwich. but nobody destroyed it so obviously they knew their information that was out there at least internally. i don't know if there was a conspiracy to cover it up. >> we don't know there's not. >> if they had assured it, it was suggested it. >> i'm not here to defend them. >> i thought you had shed your

s.e.c. skin. >> i did. >> performance this morning is worrying me. >> i'm trying to be objective. >> this guy mark. >> he's the general council of fairfield greenwich. >> and he's playing along? >> they didn't destroy the tape which means they didn't obstruct. >> you don't always sit there and say, i'm going to speak up and not sound like a lawyer. madoff tried to represent to fairfield greenwich, when you read the transcript, it sounds like a man who's hopped up on crack. two, he talks about trading in and out of the markets and that's a concern about information leaking and impacting his trading program. he does describe that, so it's not indicative of fairfield grin

itch being aware he's stealing money. coming up, disney is opening the doors to the magic kingdom in its first ever fan expo and what bob iger has to say about the future for disney. and tim geithner in a town hall meeting, 7:00 p.m. tonight, exclusive on cnbc. erin burnett and steve liesman will be up next to discuss geithner.

check out shares of yahoo. a gain of 5%. bank of america upped the company and added that user traffic continued to perform above as a whole. now, a special town hall meeting tonight on cnbc beginning at 7:00 eastern. treasury secretary tim geithner will be on hand to talk about the financial crisis a year later, how it unfolded, how far we've come and where we are headed. the show will be hosted by erin burnett and steve liesman and they join us now from washington. hello, kids. erin burnett, start me off.

where do you wish to take secretary geithner? >> well, if i were to do that right now, larry, is tap my watch and he would know. we are going the talk about the deficit, taxes. we're going to talk about china, t.a.r.p. and taxpayer money and compensation. >> we're going to talk about the anxieties of regular american people over these issues. bailouts. how long, how much involvement is the government going to have in the banking system. taxes and deficits, these are not just financial issues. these are major issues, larry, that strike at the core of who we are. >> and are we also going to acknowledge how far we've come? the s.e.c. today saying they're not going to back any more debt, which was a huge, huge program. the fact they can walk away is a wonderful sign for the credit

mark. >> steve and i put a couple of screens together. one was sort of a report card, where we are, t.a.r.p. to steve's point, a lot of them don't know where we are. we've put into the banks $365 billion. the return is 18%. so there are some ways. >> i would submit to you that the early returns are the better returns. those banks that can pay it back, will pay it back early. >> steve, you're not just going to whitewash this are you? >> me? not on your life. >> are you going to ask him by the way, why chinese are buying dollars and stem celling gold? >> that could be on the list. let me just tell you, if you don't like me questions, we've got 200 people in the audience that are cnbc viewers, nbc

viewers. >> larry -- >> yes, i did. i cannot tell a lie. i snuck a question in there, trying to work around the edges here. >> i want to know the following. are we at a point where we could now allow banks to fail? now that we're going to have derivatives, trading, have we taken care of enough of those issues that we could let a bank fail? >> not only are we going to go through lehman a year ago, but the last segment and we could just tell him this, is where we're going. how america gets its mojo back. okay, let's say we had to go in. how do we get out and where do we go from here. >> i think it's fair to let him know that's on the list. >> the vision. i think that's the key. not just an answer or list or here's where we are.

>> erin burnett, one more chance. tease me. tough question. what are you thinking, what is that great mind of yours churning out right now? >> all right, larry. i want to know if your taxes are going up. >> oh, this is good. >> yes. >> very good. >> i want to see if he will answer that question directly. and i hope that he will. >> all right. great luck tonight. >> and we are going to be asking about the chinese, larry, and i understand you have a small cameo. that's a reason for people to tune in if nothing else. >> there two ways to submit your questions. go to cnbc.com to post your video, you can do video questions. or e-mail us. once again, the geithner town hall meeting begins 7:00 p.m.

eastern time right here. 1:00 p.m. eastern time, "power lunch" airing live geithner's t.a.r.p. testimony. "power lunch" is coming up. bill griffeth, what is in store? >> what she said. we're also looking at a couple of critical industries in the economy. banking and housing. getting more information about that. we'll be checking in with some reporters and analysts about that. and on our watch, we'll have the testimony by secretary geithner before the congressional oversight panel on t.a.r.p. that gets underway at 1:00. could move the markets. and we have the results of the three-year bond auction at 1:00 p.m. eastern time as well. >> that is exciting. that 30-year, can the government continue to borrow money at that

rate? huge question. thank you, bill. we're going to take a quick break and then the ultimate convention for disney fans across the nation. >> we'll head out to anaheim, california, where disney is opening the doors to the magic kingdom and julia spoke with bob iger and is up next with the details. in this unusually volatile time, you want a financial partner... who is unusually prepared to help. the meeting with northern trust went well, didn't it? yeah, they get it. they really get it. a little more stability would be nice. northern trust offers the strength and expertise... that can only come from a 120-year track record... of thriving even in difficult times. they understand. roller coasters are for kids, not money. ♪ northern trust. wealth management. asset management. asset servicing.

disney kicks off it first ever fan expo today giving a sneak peak of upcoming projects and changes to the magic kingdom. an already strong year for the world's second largest media conglomerate, shares up 21% and higher by more than 2% today. julia boorstin just spoke with  ceo bob iger and joins us with the details of that  conversation. >> i'm here at d-23, the first of its kind, a major expo in which disney is previewing content and giving fans a sneak peak. i asked bob iger why disney would invest so heavily in connecting with fans in this market. >> we have, over the 80 plus

years of existence in the company, developed a fan base that's extraordinary. it's all ages, genders, different ethnicities and i believe that by keeping that connection really solid, then the competition is kind of one  step behind us. >> disney was hit hard by the  downturn in advertising, but bob iger is optimistic that u.s. automakers will have to spend more on ads and disney will benefit. >> they're going to look for the best places to advertise. looking at abc and espn, we're one of those places. >> die hard fans lined up early this morning for previews. >> all of the investments you talk about are long-term

investments. they are not investments that are aimed at improving our bottom line right now. they're essentially we're focused on improving the bottom line of the company and creatin real value for the long-term. >> iger also weighed in on the health care debate on the heels of obama's address to the giant session last night. that's coming up in "power lunch." >> they've got so many employees, it's extremely important. that sounds like so much fun. a quick break and back for the last call. >> and a list of stocks to watch this afternoon. you're watching cnbc.did why? because we are first in business worldwide. it's a one-two punch of savings -- pow! pow! lower hotel booking fees mean you get a lower total price. plus, if another orbitz customer then books the same hotel for less, we send you a check for the difference, automatically.

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all right. it's time for the call to action on stocks you need to watch.

matt nesto is here with a look. >> the first thing -- the s&p 500 and we've seen the streaks in the dow. in fact, it's that big streakish runs, but this is the first five-day advance for the s&p 500. really since november. that five-day rally wrapped around the thanksgiving holiday was a lot larger. this one is about 4.1% right now. it's the best five-day move that we've seen since late august. now, all the buzz in the market when you get down to the stock level today is going to be over the hmos. there was some indecision early. hmo i've renamed for not health maintenance organization, but help me, obama, and he is today. some analysts are saying we

really didn't change the debate last night, so the relief rally here at least in the short term until we see specific legislation is purring shares of cigna higher. all pushing higher here today. the hmos have not been underperformers. they're up 80% since march. also, the airlines, we'll call it a legacy love fest. the high-priced airlines are just kicking the you know what out of the low-cost airlines. jpmorgan says nary a bankruptcy in sight as long as oil prices stay where they are. then some unusually big volume movers.