y come from a 120-year track record... of thriving even in difficult times. they understand. roller coasters are for kids, not money. ♪ northern trust. wealth management. asset management. asset servicing. here's what to watch in for tomorrow -- >> reporter: noon tomorrow, several times 8:30 eastern, of course import price. at 10:00, preliminary september university of michigan sentiment survey. tune in and stay tuned. >> i'm scott wapner at the new york stock exchange. and here's what i'll be watching for tomorrow. the s&p 500 goes for a sixth straight day of gains. would that be the longest streak in over two years. the biggest six-day streak in some 6 1/2 years. and the earning's parade continues with campbell soup. we'll see if those numbers are

um-um good. >> and before we say goodnight, take a look at where the open moves tomorrow. the dow jones begins tomorrow at 9,627 with the strength and the financial services sector and the oil sector up nearly 1%. a gain on the session with 23. 1% and s&p 500 picking up 1 10 3/4. "fast money" up next. have a great night. live from the nasdaq marketsite, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. these are the "fast money" traders, markets to search a 11-month high. technology helping this search higher. we'll talk, in fact, the ceo of national semifresh, off of the earnings conference call. this sea cnbc exclusive. and later on the brothers of najarians favorite pigskin play.

and that's john mack stepping down for morgan stanley. and our own on-air reporter. the company coming out and saying that john mack in fact will step down in 2010. the co-president will assume the ceo role. and john mack will remain as chairman. and this is a big question here is does this change anybody's outlook on morgan stanley? the fact of the matter is yes, it's towards the top of the best breed. not the best in breed but it did miss a lot of opportunities to make money on its prop desk. >> well i think that had nothing to do with his decision an one thing is clear is morgan stanley through the acquisition of the smith barney assets. and the strength of their own franchise may be taking a slightly different tack. gorman as the new head, again, this is not new news. i think that you kind of move on with this one. i don't think this is affecting the stock. i don't think it affected it today and i don't think if you're going to is a substantial change in their strategy. this lack of risktaking a think

shareholders ultimately is a great thing. >> the only problem is the wealth management franchise, clearly is what they're focusing on if we're to take gorman's appointment is a real challenging space because do you have companies like schwab and independents really challenging that franchise. >> this is expected. you look at it, why did they have gorman already in this position as the co-president? he was appointed, by who? john mack. they've been moving in this direction since january. you can see this coming at some point down the line. absolutely, when you look at john mack, he also had his contract begin to expire next year. there was a lot of things going and this is not a new risktaker. >> right. >> this guy's not coming in because of the fact that he stumbled under risktaking. he's going into this position because of the fact of the direction with the smith barney acquisition. >> and to echo what zeke said as well the situation on the welt management side, you can't really put schwab on an equal playing field with morgan stanley. i know that you're not doing that but i'm saying they're going after a different set of

customers here. going after a much higher. >> a merrill lynch sort deal, the competition. >> exactly. and that bank of america/miril deal is going to be paying huge dividends in 2010, in 2011. that would be one of my long-term bets and i do own it in full disclosure. >> mary thompson is scheduled, expecting an interview, an exclusive interview with john knorrman and as well as john mack. we'll bring those comments as soon as she does get them. meantime talk about the markets, 11-month highs. 5 for 5. in fact a slow creep higher an that was an interesting move in today's market. at one point it's virtually unchanged. by the end the day the s&p 500 is up by one full percentage point. what does it look in terms of the option's activity. >> in terms of option's activity it was heavy today. 16 million contracts, that's a good sign, for a change that we had much more on the trading side. and i think if you look at where we were september of last year, september 10th, we were at 11,400.

i mean we're a long way from 11,400. so all of those headlines keep coming up when people say, oh take a look, it's highest we've been in 11 months. they leave off the highest in a year for good reason, because we're still over 2,000 points from where we were. >> in fact that's the chart of day, if we can pull this up. courtesy of -- dr. j., you flagged this one. interesting. get to your point that 11 month, how about that 12-month. >> i and when you look at that 12 month there's this huge gap in there. next to no upside resistance points. >> that's the good news. >> where we are here and 1100 on the s&p. and spoke out what the chart was, when you have no upside resistance points doesn't mean you have to go there but it means the road's a lot easier to go when you do start going up there. >> a lot of air up to the s&ps. people are look to the 1060 which is the 2004 lows. if you want your technical levels those are the ones to follow and again the najarian brothers will talk all day and

night with appropriate detail that i cannot. the volatility, one-month volatile at 20%, that's at one-year lows. that's to be excited about. that's where pete's been saying this all week. look, buy some downside protection here, you're crazy. a lot of guys in the middle of this rally have actually bought expense of puts, at 30, 35, 40. they were nervous. and they're reluctant to do it now because a lot of that stuff went worthless. i talked to a lot of portfolio managers saying, yeah, i will not buy puts here. i've watched them with or the vine. it's never going to be cheaper. >>ul have some interesting problems, as this market runs up in the coming weeks and take those to 11 count s&p. about where a lot of the investment houses have put their year-end target. the question is do you start to get reallocation? start to lock those gains in? where their targets have been surpassed. by the way, pete, you look very bestoekd yourself. good luck with the research. but i think that issue, come mid-october, of, okay we have reached our target? what do we do now? keep looking silly, upping our

target or predict a pullback. >> and another issue that everyone's been wondering, including ourselves, is who is going to be leadership? still not the financials. goldman sachs, they're not conary in the gold mine. they're hitting 52-week highs and looking at the financials and yet you see the xlf, where it's been. jumped to 12 to 14. hanging around 14 1/2. that's right. hanging there ever since. and look to the technology, the space of smh, that's basically flat as well. where are we getting the big push right now? those industrial names, and that's what's pushing us. look at 3m, what is happening with most of the names in that industry. the engineering name, seaman, power generation that big industrial building, folk, that's pushing us to those new levels. >> transport, one more time on the transportation index, i would argue again that is taking everybody. that is supposed to be your leading indicator. nobody thinks that the sabes norfolk southern or a burlington. or the airlines.

or something to get about excited now but these guys are giving you reads. >> i will say this, those rails i'm very impressed. absolutely been running recently. we talk about the coals, we talk about the steels all of the time. the rails are obviously what are going to have to to ship these around the countries. the rails are areas where they seem to have a big struggle. seem to fail. norfolk southern, it's right about there. burlington. you might see some pullbacks. >> csx, ceo coming out of lonnon today out of a ubs conference not seeing any upturn in terms of freight volumes compared to last year or a month erler. is that concerning? >> said exactly the opposite. >> that's true. those industrials and metals can run based on global growth and the upturn in global and industrial activity without the u.s. being particularly interesting here so i don't think that you need to look at the rails or you need to look at transports domestically. they're a good stock market read in order to explain the kind of strength that you're seeing and the reason that you're getting that market leadership is you have the global industrials leading it.

>> the next trade and talk about the chip names. of course on this desk talking about the after-hours' action. also coming out early this morning, certainly confirming some of the good data points that we've seen coming out of this sector. that the point is it just too much to get into these names? it's bane very powerful group. >> that's easier, one-word answer is, yes. the sector is going to do very well. into the fourth quarter. but here at the end of the third quarter, they've put up such impressive numbers. even if you look at the intels like pete would say the 800-pound gorilla. you look at intel it has continued to do well off of the lows but they're all kind of stalling out here, at least in my mind. 'that's why i'm not excited about buying them after the events of have happened, after these earnings and after guidance. i think that you wait until the end of this quarter plays out. you only have to wait two or three weeks. >> yeah. >> a lot of people have been talking about this space for the entire summer as being a leading indicator of an economic recovery, and you know i still love a lot of these special team names. i have talked about broadcom,

that are key to mobile communications but a stock that's now at 52 week highs and people suddenly jumping into this space, if you're not into these right now i don't think that right now is necessarily where you want to jump into them. >> the good news from texas instruments, i think i think this is where zach's going with there. more people like nokyeah and guys who said the chips and the smart phones and in the netbooks and the guys that have the exposures say that's where the growth is for these guys. i continue like nokia, it has come back. that was followed through. >> ride for you, tim -- >> say what. >> a painful drive. i'm just saying. >> a choppy ride. i think if you followed this stock and you saw overreactions on their numbers, you actuallying have made some money here so i've not always been right on this but i have been right for a few weeks. >> if you're look for one more bright spot out of texas instruments, why maybe these things are just basing and not give you the opportunity on the pullback, texas instruments talk about capex spending going higher the hiring they've had to

do, the one to one book to ratio, you have to like that now. ciena in the noteworking space, talking about hiring. no longer talking about firing, talking about hiring. where we are on the cycle right now and the cycle is trend to the upside in the second half of the year. >> speaking of firing, isn't it friday? i mean, that's supposed to -- >> no, i wasn't fast firing you. i was asking about nokia because we've seen rough times on that stock chart. >> calling me out. it is very, very appropriate. >> well, they're losing market share. a lot of things that are pressuring nokia right now and you look at that space and you see other names where it seems to be nothing but positive. nokia, on the other hand, thai doing things right. i think that they're doing the acquisitions. they're trying to move in the right direction. but they're kind of behind the 8-ball right now. they're late. they seem to be late to the party. you i mean they're like microsoft coming out with the -- coming out the ipod. >> having this conversation, i. will point out that motorola's co-ceo was on cnbc just about a

half an hour ago. pointed out that the growth in this cell phone market is excited of what they're looking at too. yet aortplayer coming in. is that bad for nokia? no the leader in this business. smartphones grew 20% last quarter. why are you kicking nokia around? yes, a bigger pie that they have a smaller piece of but a bigger overall piece of that pie. >> i love nokia. >> honestly you're the only person i know. >> i have the e-71 right here but that's problem with nokia. everybody else has the iphone. people are starting to go towards the pre. the blackberry, everyone in the world has that. but nokia, everyone the ones that they give away with the plan, that's a republican. they have to fix themselves and still in the process of doing so. >> before we move onto yahoo! a quick check, if we can. the company coming out after-hours beating the street's estimates. increased industrial demand. which would seem like it's good news and yet we're seeing a tick lower for shares of nsm.

meantime, talking to tapes today. the stock closing more than fours%. after getting upgraded by bank of america and merrill lynch. >> frankly, adds revenue and takes costs off of our p&l and we'll be a tronger business. we can focus where we have value. >> i said potential deal because she actually said in that same interview basically that she would have done the deal. the full deal. >> what, $24 billion? >> something along the lines of, sure, don't you think i'm stupid? i mean. >> yeah, exactly. >> a remarkable candid response, and i think it certainly tells you the style of this woman who's not afraid to take this company into a new direction. i think that's what people are excited about. because pulling no punches here. >> this is what happens when you get adult supervision at a

silicon valley company. because carol bartz is moving them in the right directions. she said, do you think i'm stupid, just like tim echoed. she's not stupid. she's doing what yahoo! is best at, which is, search for news. not search. they're the number one news site for sports. they're the number one news site for business and finance. that's what they're trying to grow here. not the overall search. that's why google's something else. >> it's kind of an interesting day. i know we're going to talk about some of this latest, where you're talking about yahoo!, you're talking about ebay. you've got the old 199's internet companies suddenly having a second wind behind them. aol, for instance, has become like the best media company with the most journalists relative to the old, old media so clearly a lot of energy in the states because this is where both advertising and eyeballs are going to go. that's not a new story but these second-tier names, not the googles, not the amazons are the ones who will benefit. as you get away from old media onto the new space. >> the second-tier names you talk about data and everything

else, look what the she actually said also. talked about 97% of what they're doing is entertainment. 3%, search. so they are moving in the right direction. she's targeting how they can improve that, and by improving that, you should see this as a growth company. this is not a sagging company now with karl bartz at helm these guys are moving to the upside. >> bartz's comments does that open the door for a purchase? doesn't that essentially say i would have done the deal. >> i don't think microsoft want a deal. they got everything they wanted for essentially a 10% of the deal. >> does yahoo! still need do do a deal? >> yes but i'm not sure what is left if they have this exclusivity with microsoft. >> i am not sure want to do the deal. i think they want do the deal under the right circumstances. ag names getting crushed. lowering it's 2009-2010. pete, i know that you've been watching like potash. >> this is a different name in

the space because most of those names that we talk about all the time are in fertilizers. this is seeds. the roundup and the rest of it. i think this presents a very interesting opportunity. you look for stocks that actually have a great earning's potential and you've got that upside potential of what they've gotten in their biotech field for them, that's the rest of the bio ag space and makes them very interesting, still. and give $3, $4 pullback and i think that's when you have to look at someone. >> what mosaic and man santo. the bottom line as we aides company who makes herbicides. that's 28% of the revenue space. is going to raise another billion dollars to go hard after cs. arguably you could say that mosaic is in play. we've talked about that with some of the others. potash could number play but again you've got the largest fertilizer producers in world that are in play because although corn prices are down,

yields need to go back up and a lot of cutting in this space. >> yeah, and on the montana and first of all on the herbicide story. flushing out the actual numbers. and secondly, not a name that's run much. $62, $63. it's not participated much in the runup. it's a much more stabile name and if you believe in the world's going to need more food because as middle-class people throughout the world desire the more chloric-intense foods as well as meat monsanto is the one company that's generating this. >> let's move on, talk about the obama trade. the president addressing congress and the nation of backing the public health care option. leaving that on the table. immediate reform of coverage for all. >> under my plan, individuals will be required to carry basic health insurance, just as most states require you to carry auto insurance.

likewise, likewise, businesses will be required to either offer their worker's health care or chip in to help cover the cost of their workers. >> so how do you trade this? bring in citi. a top-ranked health care analyst. charles ucame on this show last week. you said some form of health care reform will get done. he's leading the public option on the table. the market seem to be interpreting this as something will get done, but it'll take a very long time. and so, therefore, maybe it won't be as damaging to the health care stocks. is that your view, or is it just simply too early to draw that sort of conclusion? >> well, i think that's right. i think that president obama took a big step towards the center in his speech last night. the market's siouxing that as increasing the likelihood that we get a bipartiszan health care reform, bipartisan reform will be better for these stocks than partisan reform and i think that market reacted to that positively today. >> at unh, you had come on, recommending those stocks. those stock his a nice pop today. do you see values there.

>> yeah i think that we'll see more milli more followthrough. what was critical about his speech yesterday is that he woulda,gree to not have a government-run plan. it's not the center of his proposal. we think the flexibility on that issue is also positive for the stocks. >> and, charles, i would commend if i humbly can to say that -- >> he's watching. >> but moving to the left of center here is -- or to the right of center/left that he was sitting is a spartmove. he's underlying this, getting the states out the way. this is to me the case. when you can get 6, 7, 10, 15 insurance companies competing in the same marketplace that to me is good news. what, though does that mean to these guys? talk about the competitive aspect. forget about the public option but deregulating this industry, what does that mean? >> margins have to come down. >> well, exactly. i think what we're going to see, and this is our investment themo for how to play reform generally

that volume will go up, more people will get insurance. when you get insurance you'll go to the doctor, you're going to consume health care but we're going to have to self-finance this elsewhere in health care so margins will come down. we favor companies that will benefit from the volumes but are at less risk of margin contractions, so mcketchin is one. they're in the interpretation and the information technology business. volumes will go up, margins won't go down, they may go up with the higher volumes and we like the pharmacy benefit managers about we mentioned medco, is another example of a company that will benefit from higher volumes, less risk of margin contraction. manage care, though is a mixed bag. more customers buying insurance but profit margins will go down. that said, we think that the stocks are undervalued and we continue to recommend aetna, unitedhealth, humana and a couple of others. >> charles, good to see you. >> thank you. >> hope to see you soon. >> good luck, charles. that was the word on the street. we've got the casino names. is it time to double-down or get out? nageareans duke it out with their favorite beverage names

and here is what else is coming up on the show. linebacker versus linebacker, brother versus brother, ponytail versus ponytail, jon and pete lock horns on this popular stock. and what happens in vegas -- wait, there's nothing happening in vegas. a top analyst tells us if there are any sin city stock buys while the chips are down. and plus, one year later a trading lesson from lehman tim will never forget. he ran off with his secretary! she's 23 years old! - oh, come on. - enough! you get half and you get half. ( chirp ) team three, boathouse? ( chirp ) oh yeah-- his and hers. - ( crowd gasping ) - ( chirp ) van gogh? ( chirp ) even steven. - ( chirp ) mansion. - ( chirp ) good to go. ( grunts ) timber! ( chirp ) boss? what do we do with the shih-tzu? - ( crowd gasps ) - ( chirp ) joint custody. - phew! - announcer: get work done now. communicate in less than a second with nextel direct connect. only on the now network. , hard of hearing and an people with speech dischities accessac.sprintrelay.com.

welcome back, "fast money", we're live at the nasdaq marketsite. the dollar closing only marginally lower despite heavy volume in the contract today. could we be seeing a bottoming out in the greenback, and if so, what does it mean for stocks? go to the pit, got the big sir waiting around for us. rick santelli, i have a feeling that you're going to tell us that we have not in fact seen the bottom in the dixie? >> reporter: boy that's a lucky business. i tell you what after i watched the elizabeth warren asked timothy geithner at least three times, three times, well, how many toxic assets are exactly on the books in these banks?

and remember, one-year anniversa anniversary, really the third year of the entire crisis. when fasb did. he still didn't have an answer. hey, guys does that sound like a real dollar-denominated rally in the making when you can't get an answer to that question? >> rick, in the short term, though, what do you make from today's treasury option? the 30 -- it was a great week for the u.s. treasury to get people back into the dollar assets. i realize may be both technical and short term and obviously dedicated players in that market. what's your call? >> reporter: well, i think that you're going to continue to see interest rates probably not reach critical mass dealing with supply and deficit issues. i think it's still more of a safety hedge. i think some of these banks certainly aren't ledding anything i know. they're probably in there buying as well, wouldn't you think? but i don't think that any of this is good for the dollar. i think it's a gradual trajectory lower and after a while these start to add up. >> do you think what the

treasury secretary says is so fundamentally the point of where the dollar trades? i mean, yeah, currency treasure will trade tomorrow. >> reporter: something big to change the direction of the dollar, no, i think it's those time answers that have accumulative affect of not giving the reserve currency anything to rally over. so, you're right, that's a giant fundamental issue. but if there was a better answer to that, then i think we would be talking about a dollar that might have a chance to rebound from that fundamental, technicals asides, the technicals don't look good. >> rick, just real quick. jon here. if you looked overseas on the other side of the pond and see the depth that these guys have as well and the fact that they're pledged based on the g-20 meeting to continue to fund the bounce that we're seeing in the markets, do you see, perhaps, the focus being more on the yen and less on the euro? because versus the euro we could actually see a bounce out of the dollar. >> reporter: you know, i would think that it i had to pick a occurrence they probably isn't going to see a lot more

appreciation against the dollar. it might be the euro. but, heck, it doesn't mean that you can't see 153, 152. i think they're going to challenge 150. i think the dollar yen can go all way down to the mid-80s. so you know what, jon, this is a tough one, dr. j. it's bane broad weakness against almost every currency in the last 72 hours. >> right, rick. >> really short. that's where this is going because those other currencies are also not in very economic sound shape and people are looking at the balance sheets of countries now. >> right. all right, rick, got to wrap it here. thank you very much for your time. big sir coming at us from chicago. and we should mention the treasury secretary tonight, an exclusive cnbc town hall event, banking on geithner. that is at 7:00 p.m. tonight. only on cnbc. with our friends erin burnett and steve liesman. so do tune in for that. time now for brother versus brothers. najarian brothers go a head on a stock play. later tonight, what are your

best of pigskin plays? okay here is the tale of the tape. weighing at 220. >> what. >> and also 6'3" and weighs in at -- >> is that embellishment? >> a little heavy. >> jon's a former chicago bear, pete's a former tampa bay buccaneer. jon is bullish on beer. pete is positive on pop. jon, you're our guest here. from chicago. >> thank you, emily. state your case here. >> first of all, moderate beer consumption's good for your bones. this is why i drink beer. i suspect it's why most of us -- >> did you type this out on word? >> never mind where i got it from. >> he got it from the inter sfwheeb photoshop these days. >> i did not photoshop it. here is the day. control 80% of the beer market. we're kicking off tonight with the steelers playing the titans tonight. i love this market. even with consumption down, prices are up. that's why it's nice to be in a

monopoly, folks. i like the beer play to outperform pete's soft play. >> i like the monopoly that beer has right now and i also like burger king. the stock's doing nothing. and another sponsor of the nfl by the way and those creepy commercials. >> totally weird. >> i know that tim and i both have nightmares about that. i swear to you. >> wipe that smile off of your face. come on. >> but pepsi, take a look at pepsi right now, what happens every fall? you look at a five-year chart of pepsi. sort escalates to the upside. invol evolved for a long time and i am telling you people are consuming. the conssumption there is great. look at that stock chart, each pullback gives you an opportunity. right now the p/e levels are 14. >> tim, you have the pleasure of calling this match. >> i have to go with beer. i mean for a lot of different reasons. >> oh it's a no-brainer, really.

but you know -- >> beer and bone strength, you can't argue that combination. i mean, come on. >> do a beer plunger a gatorade tip? >> i am going to drink my beer and leave the gate orred a for the football players but bottom line is the beer industry continues to consolidate and people like inbev, bud, are going to continue to strengthen their position. i like imbev. a they want to add to their portfolio because becoming fewer and fewer players. >> lastly in your space, how about japan sant ori today. we're starting to see calendar nation that space. kraft going arch cadbury. the space everywhere and the snack area. >> and like ahead of the summer driving season, gasoline prices go up, guess when beer prices go up ahead of the football season? >> right. >> we should note that this actually comes from the arthritis research campaign. headquartered out of london. this is probably one reason why you cannot believe everything that you read on the inter web.

so children out there -- >> this is not a fair fight. >> i don't know if this -- really. >> i do not think that soft drinks and interfere is a fair fight. >> i agree. >> beer will always win. >> do you want a coke or a beer? >> a much bigger market in soft drink, i tell you that. >> let's move on. time to analyze this, "the new york times" reporting avenues are suffering despite recent investments. sell nishation after citi after a 175% run-up this year alone. does this mean gambling stocks have yet to see a bottom? joining us is top-ranked analyst. from j.p. morgan. joe, always nice to speak with you. >> nice seeing you guys as well. >> what is happening in las vegas these days? are there increases in terms of travelers there and are hotels able to actually not discount rooms to get them in. >> this county's still going on. i think the discount rate is lessening, particularly as we go into the fall period. we have some convention,

business moving back towards las vegas. it's still down a lot but i would say the rate of rate discounting is declining and comparisons get easier. visitation volumes are down a lot less than revenue. it's really the spend per visitor and the rate is the one thing to watch. a lot of operating leverage there for the casino operators. go straight to the bottom line to the profit line. >> is vegas still a bad word when it comes to corporate events and hosting conferences in vegas? >> unfortunately, i think a lot of washington rhetoric kind of put that stigma attached to it but the remarkable thing about las vegas it is still a reasonable place to travel for individual business travelers and for conventions it's one of the most inexpensive places to host it and that's the appeal right now and starting on to get some of that back but really it's a fight against the sigma associated with having it in kind of a boondoggle type of market. >> these casino companies what about using high-end and the cow as opposed to vegas as the differentiator about names that you should own and names that you shouldn't?

>> they say somewhat overlap particular we las vegas sands and mgm-mirage. one thing right now for mccowan is mccowan. you had 40% game revenue growth. august had you had 17% year over year. game revenue growth for the market. i think september and october will be even stronger. and i think when you have a mccowan going forward is i think the government there is supporting progrowth policy with easing travel restriction, putting caps on commissions to junk operators to help the profitability. and things feel much, much better for mccowan right now. >> i read your note and i think where you are absolutely spot on are regional players like boyd because i think that things like aqueduct getting slots is a big hurt on what's going down, down in atlantic city. so i think that the focus more on vegas, more for that because, like you say it's one of the cheaper places to have conventions and with it, some of the stigma wearing off i think

that vegas has a lot more upside than the smaller operators do so i agree with your note there. >> even your leading about las vegas about being down a ton. what does that does for equity investors and i think the public perception is create very low expectations for these companies to deliver better than expected profits. while down significantly year over year i think they can still beat estimates, particularly for mgm-mirage, each $5 variance in room rate for mgm-mirage on an annual basis yields about $50 million in incremental annual ebita. a buck per share. at $10, $11 that's a significant upside. >> joseph, leave it there. thank you for your time. do you like boyd, do you own it? >> i don't like boyd. >> oh you don't. sorry. >> no, i don't like boyd. and they've got that bore gada is that what it is down there in atlantic city? and i think that the exposure from that and these 4,500 slot machines that they're putting out at aqueduct are going to

draw significantly in that draw in atlantic city. i do own mgm. >> macau offers a lot more. what joe said cutting some of the tax rates on the casino operators. there melco international. we've talked about it. this is stanley hoe's son. they sprout another blossom in the gaming world. >> and have a lot of extra cash. >> used that because his doctor's name is pansy? >> i didn't want to do that but i guess it was led there in my own mand. >> and do you see last night shuffle master. 80% profit. this stock is here in the 52-week highs. are there names that are working that are on the downside of this whole trade. >> right. let's trade the globe. >> let's do it. >> let's into it. globe. >> globe. >> we've been talking a lot about china in all of its growth figures. and certainly that is a big reason why we've seen a huge run-up in the fxi, the ecf. the track. the shanghai exchange but can we believe the data that comes out kriechbt? we should note according to joseph malcolm.

china's stats are based on recorded production which differs from u.s. stocks which are based on exports and actualing spending figures by consumaries and governments. we dug this up courtesy of the aei. take a look at this, retail sales up 15%. year over year. the first half of '09 according to china's government but this reflects the rate of shipments to retailers because we don't know what consumers have actually bought. they also make the point interestingly that thanks to the china stimulus plan a lot of these washing machines had been shipped to consumers but a lot of these consumers don't necessarily have the resources to run these machines so they were sent back. >> these are great points. this is why the chinese recovery is a domestic recovery. it's not an export-driven one and it's about producing. and it's not necessarily seeing the kind of domestic followthrough but with all of the criticism of the japanese demand -- skchl the chinese dat a number of people who do a very good job analyzing it including hsbc. these guys are doing the same

surveys the government does every month on pmi and retail spending and they're coming out in line and these guys are doing their own delgence. so i will say all data out of all governments is dubious. >> yes. >> and i would say in china's case make sure that you know what you are looking for. watch the lending. that comes out over the next couple of days. the bank lending which was up about five times in the first quarter, a trillion and a half yen in the first quarter versus 300 billion year over year that's part of what was so exciting why it pumped up the real estate market. >> and although you have to be careful about what's going to in the chinese real estate market because of that liquidity. i agree do not pay attention to china's statistics as a reason to invest in china, period. you pay attention to the demand that you know what's going to, whether it's the price of copper, whether it's auto sales, gm actually did sell those cars in china even though they didn't sell them in the u.s. that's a real indicator of where the demand is but if you're looking at government statistics to follow your investments you are eventually going to get burned. >> okay. >> zeke. >> yeah.

>> delivering the goods. >> yeah. >> nice. >> all right, coming up next, big moves out of tiffany's, radioshack, united airlines but can momentum continue or is this trade done? we've got your answers in "pops & drops." that's coming up next. [ engine revving ] [ engine powers down ] gentlemen, you booked your hotels on orbitz. well, the price went down, so you're all getting a check thanks. for the difference. except for you -- you didn't book with orbitz, so you're not getting a check. well, i think we've all learned a valuable lesson today. good day, gentlemen. thanks a lot. thank you. introducing hotel price assurance, where if another orbitz customer books the same hotel for less, we send you a check for the difference, automatically. but i've still got room for the internet. with my new netbook from at&t. with its built-in 3g network, it's fast and small, so it goes places other laptops can't. i'm bill kurtis, and i've got plenty of room for the internet.

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welcome back to "fast money." that's cnbc townhall with secretary timothy geithner's just wrapped upp. we've got exclusive sound for you right now. here's what the secretary there to say. >> today because of the effectiveness of the actions we've taken, it's just the beginning. we've had more than $80 billion come back into the treasury. that money goes to reduce how much we have to borrow and it means that we have more resources available to do the necessary things our country needs. >> all right you saw steve liesman there, erin burnett is also hosting that special townhall event. that's tonight 7:00 p.m. on cnbc. so do not miss that. he is fielding questions from viewers across the country. time now for today's edition of "pops & drops."

we want to kick it off with a pop for p&g. >> got a drop here. tim. >> truck engines and school buses. happy first day back to everybody. a crazy day for you, i bet. >> pop here for ual. up 18%. i love school bus by the way. >> i bet you did. you are the type that did. >> that didn't come out very nicely, tim. >> you led me right to it. >> dr. j. >> united airlines, jpmorgan comes out, gives them a big thumbs-up. recovery play influencings big carriers. that charge the big bucks a lot of upside. amr was also up on this. i like all of them but i wouldn't be a buyer on the upgrade. >> pop here for the u.s. natural gas fund. the etf.

>> it finally happened. everyone's been waiting and wondering when natural gas was going to pop. today is your day. big move today in nat gas that pushed up. >> drop here for tavorieern on green. it filed for bankruptcy last night after a 75-year run. "the new york times" reports the company blames the filing on the financial crisis. >> sure. >> yeah. >> maybe not. >> and the food, overpriced food. >> and the food. >> and tour busses that parked outside. >> you don't like the light from the trees? >> come on. >> i love the lights in the trees it looks beautiful. >> great. >> there's bills. >> pop here for manitowoc. >> they're still riding on this upgrade that they got the other day and everybody, including myself, always called them a crane company. they're food services. 65% of the revenue's coming from the food service side. that stock's getting a nice big

lift. >> icemakers. >> by the way it is manitowoc. >> there you go. >> say it correctly, tim. >> pop here gold. >> it bounced back for the gold guys. it was much related to gold and although these guys are moving heavy. >> and we've got a pop here for derek jeter, yankees' shortstop tide the all-time career mark in 2007. under 21 last night. playing at home against tampa bay. a record number of previously reached more than 70 years ago. by the legendary lou gehrig. >> go get, amy, derek. >> that a boy. all right coming up next, does the lehman collapse change the way you think about trading? tim seymour, the investor, gives you his lessons learned from lehman right after this break.

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>> the investment banking era is over. >> my money's in the market. was i scared, sure. even the money market guys were suddenly questioning whether these money market funds were going to break the buck. well, anything you'd ever been told about the safety of your assets was being held into question. >> the reality is whatever happens to lehman, whether it's -- whether we see a deal over the weekend the equity shareholder are going to suffer.

i was in the process of actually building a new hedge fund. >> the lehman bankruptcy locked up and froze assets as hedge funds everywhere. so it was very difficult for us to get commitments from institutions who were ready to support us. we got our book as tight and as liquid as possible, which means, we got out of smaller positions in companies that are under a billion dollars in market debt. where our position might have actually been larger than something we could get out of in more than two trading days. consumer demand is going down. demand destruction. look at wages, look at job wages. look, continuing claims, they're going to get worse. i do think that lehman brothers reminded people that these things can happen. that you know, if you took your statistic classes you knew that the wideend of the belt curve there still is that 100th of 1% that can happen. and this certainly was that moment. i've someone who has spent 15 years in the emerging market. if you traded in russia '98 or

asia '97 or anything in the latin american crises of the early '90s you have seen breakdowns that have provided tremendous opportunities as i trader as well. >> is that what you did, tim? you identified the opportunities in that moment? because a lot of people in those days after lehman brothers were focused on that outliar, that 1%? >> before that moment. >> what happened. >> when you saw the emerging crisis in the emerging crisis you have to know the liquidity in our book and be very careful about changing liquidity. you can't sell something you can't trade. and especially in less liquid markets you have to be very careful about that because your portfolio will behave differently and know your counterparties because there was a lot of money that hedge funds had pledged through lehman through prime brokerage or high proffercated which is to say their securities were lent and didn't know of and you had to get out ahead of time. get your book tight. you sell everything that you can that you don't think that would sell in a shock situation

smiecht coming up next, national semiconductor reporting after the bell today beating analyst estimates. we'll talk to the ceo right after this break. rev [ engine powers down ] gentlemen, you booked your hotels on orbitz. well, the price went down, so you're all getting a check thanks. for the difference. except for you -- you didn't book with orbitz, so you're not getting a check. well, i think we've all learned a valuable lesson today. good day, gentlemen. thanks a lot. thank you. introducing hotel price assurance, where if another orbitz customer books the same hotel for less, we send you a check for the difference, automatically.

hey, it's great to see you're back after that accident. well...i couldn't have gotten by without aflac! is that different from health insurance? well yeah... ...aflac pays you cash to help with the bills that health insurance doesn't cover. really? well, if you're hurt and can't work, who's going to help pay for gas? ..the mortgage, all kinds of expenses? aflaccafcccc! it's the protection you need to stay ahead of the game... exactly! aflac. we've got you under our wing. aflac, aflac, aflac... aflac, aflac, aflac let's go straight to the after hours action. we are watching national semi shares, falling even though the company coming out, reporting earnings that beat analysts' estimates. let's talk to brian who will arrested, joining us from california. brian, a pleasure to speak with you. >> thank you, it's nice to be

here. >> what are you seeing in the weeks following the end of the quarter in terms of sales improvements? >> well, as we said on the earning call just now, we continue to see momentum, and so the strength has stayed there. it wasn't a quarter-end rush, and we're feeling pretty good about it. just got at 3/8 in the quarter, and that's basically a slim attention of the level we get in the turns for the shipment quarter as we did last quarter. >> how confident are you that we have seen in the worst in your sector? >> i -- i can only pray that we have seen the worst. what encourages us is that we're seeing strength this quarter in the distribution broad market, which is industrial, and it's diversified across a wide range of products. so that's a real good indicator. and let me just knock on wood here for a second. but it's -- you know, it's -- we're going to leave the cork in the bottle, but we may chill it. >> and in terms of the markets where you do want to see the upturn in terms of the

industrial segment, is that where you have the highest margin businesses, products? >> yeah, of course, our margins are pretty good, anyway. we talked about 61.1% that we just turned in, and growth in the quarter that we're in to 62 to 63. and then after we complete some of the plant closures that we've already announced, we can add another four points. so over all, the business is good in margins. but yes, in the industrial sector, and through distribution is where our highest margins are. >> all right, brian, great to have you with us. thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. >> on the part about the cork still being in the bottle, conservative, but the bottle is about to go into the ice. so in other words, he's looking to celebrate. >> all right. we've got the final trade coming up next. welcome to the now network. population: 49 million. right now 1.2 million people are on sprint mobile broadband. 31 are streaming a sales conference from the road. eight are wearing bathrobes. two... less. - 154 people are tracking shipments on a train. - ( train whistles )

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let's go to mary thompson back at ec headquarters, fresh off the phone with jim gorman and john mac. >> a brief conversation, melissa. when mr. gorman was asked what are his priorities right now, he said neurological at this point the strategic vision for morgan stanley is in place. but his priorities are making the smith barney retail business of morgan stanley number one, and making sure that this is done right. also, of course, he wants to make sure that the sales and trading business is on firm footing. there have been problems there for morgan stanley. he noted that this is a very stable change and that mr. mac will continue to work closely with him, and will continue to play a leadership role at smith

barney. when asked one of the criticisms of mr. gorman, as he has never run a tradings operation or never run an investment banks, and he said you know what, you're right, but in this day in age it's difficult to find a leader that has done all of this. that said, he spends a lot of his time speaking with institutional clients. john mac -- i'll send it back to you, melissa. more at the 8:00 show. >> look forward to it, mary. thanks so much. and don't forget, the special town hall event with treasury secretary tim geithner, 7:00 p.m. eastern time only on cnbc. check out the "final trade" obje on our web extra. see you tomorrow.  gecko: uh, you wanted to see me sir? boss: come on in, i had some other things you can tell people about geico - great claims service and a 97% customer satisfaction rate. show people really trust us. gecko: yeah right, that makes sense.

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