for gold bugs the relics contain a bit of history. they were produced in san francisco at the height of the gold rush and eventually recovered from the "ss central america," which ship-wrecked in 1857. the gold bars weigh over 100 pounds, and get this, they have a price tag of today about 2 million bucks. before we go let's take a look at the day on wall street. what happened for this market? it closed off of the worst levels of the afternoon but still negative. dow industrials down 22 points at 9,605. by the way, the dow is still up 1 1/2% for the week. 1 1/4 billion shares traded on wall street. nasdaq gave up three points a fractional loss at 2,080. and the s&p 500 gave up 1 1/2. that'll do it for us, have a fantastic weekend, everybody, thanks so much for being with us. i'll see you on monday on "closing bell." "fast money's" up next. have a good weekend. this is cnbc.com "news now." the dow industrials finished just a tenth of a point below where they closed the day before the 9/11 attacks eight years

ago. natural gas gives back much of yesterday's gains, settling 9% lower in volatile trading. natural gas prices are still up 18% from multiyear lows since last thursday. that's cnbc.com "news now." first in business worldwide. i'm julia boorstin. "fast money" with melissa lee starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. these are the "fast money" traders. a great weekends with a little profit-taking. but these guys have your best moves for next week. also tonight, the top banking analyst on the street gives us the morgan stanley trade now that mack is out. and pete gives you the story behind a suspicious solar stock surge. hmm. but first let's get to the word on the street right now. and guys, you know, the whole tale of the day, i think, was in the oil chart, joe. >> when you look back on the week it was a great week. this is a great week. we have greg tro coli with us

tonight. probably the highest settlement in 11 months. it was a great week. however. and there was a however. the oil chart broke a little today. and the copper chart as well. and that has been giving fundamental support to the market. oil tried to get above the high for the month at 73 bucks. it failed at 72.90 and there was aggressive selling that came into the oil futures throughout the remainder of the day. that took the market down. and the same thing happened in copper as well. >> was it surprising, tim, to you, since we did get the strong data out of china, you would have thought that would have been supportive to both these commodities. >> i would have. and i agree with joey i think oil's got this range trade about it and it doesn't surprise you always -- hey, joey, how are you doing? i did not do that, but i am going to. and the other part of the copper trade also is codelco the largest copper producer in the world announced more production coming online, another 10%. they are 10% of the world's market. there were a couple fundamental factors putting a weight on things but the interesting point was the dollar was weakening and

you should have seen this inverse correlation and you did not. >> first of all, greg, nice to have you with us. greg is a friend of "fast money." you see him very often on our chartology segments. and he is in fact a 3-d individual because usually we just show you pointing out the weather charts. >> that's right. >> you actually exist in three dimensions as a full human being. >> and you did a very good job on the weather today. >> i apologize for that. >> very dreary out there. talking about oil trading tim was mentioning this range we have seen that range. what do you see in the charts? >> 75 is an absolute resistance point that is so critical to this market. i look at the weekly chart on oil and 75.60 was a 38% retracement from the high to the low over the last couple years. if we can close above 75.60 that opens up the possibility to go to 89. i think it's very tough to do over the next few months. >> we were watching the vix today thinking is it going to crack a 52-week low? >> right. and we all expected it to but the movement we're getting right now in the marketplace prices in a much better than a 23. we finished up closer to 24.

i think the interesting thing about the oil trade is it's been grinding near 70 forever now and when we look back we talk about we need oil to survive. no, we don't. i'm telling you oil can be underneath 70. we finished down a point today on the s&p. six points off that 1,048 level and yet the market's still holding in there. it was the industrials. that's the story of week. some of the metals. steel names. thaushd pushed the market higher. financials flat-lined. smh, technology stocks basically flatlined. you keet looking for new leaders and it's industrials. industrials pushed the market to the next level now we keep waiting. what is it next week? we don't need energy to keep going higher. >> let's face it, the s&p actually finished in a stronger trend toward the end of the day. we're going to talk about fed ex, but we had other reasons to take inspiration in this market. consumer confidence is better. we also had good data all week around the world. central banks are starting to talk about their stimulus but

they're not doing anything. we've had reaffirmation of that. until we get that this market's got a nice backdrop to it. >> sorry. the last thing about this whole thing when you're talking about the consumer sentiment, we get this munch mitch number, why do we even need that number? >> look at it when you want to -- >> but we all look at it, we still look at it, but every day all you've got to do is look at the vix, the vxn, that tells you the sentiment of the market. >> go back one second to energy, energy sustaining around the $70 level. i agree with you we don't need energy itself to elevate above 70 bucks for the market to move higher. however, if oil rolls over, if oil heads down to 60 bucks, all these upgrades that you're seeing right now in the oil service sector, a lot of those energy names are going to roll lower with it. and that'll take the s&p 500 do down. >> it might. >> you certainly don't want it going down to 60. >> we don't want to pay four bucks at the pump. that's my whole point right now. because of that people are looking right now and paying $3 and they like what they're doing, they've got more

discretionary income. >> consumer discretionaries. you see gas go to 4 bucks a zblon and that group is in trouble. getting back to the industrials i want to schim about general electric. yes, two upgrades in two days for ge. still not above 15. >> you called me out on this the other day -- >> i have a vested interest literally in general electric. it's the parent of this network. so i want to know what's going to happen. >> my call on this one is that ge is starting to show earnings normalization not just in terms of looking at their balance sheet and their financial and ge cap but really in their infrastructure and in their energy trades and in the buildouts. and the big part of their business, and we've seen that even over the last couple weeks, it's been a couple governments that have started the move and started to put that buildout in place. ge and siemens are the guys fighting for most of this global stimulus in terms of the infrastructure buildout. there's no reason these earnings don't come back online. i think technically the chart's been stuck here. greg -- kicking my tail on this

one and i'm getting sick of it. >> i loved it at 10 i was looking for 16. ge has got to be part of your portfolio. they're a diversified business model. they got rid of the capital markets area about a year and a half ago. the balance sheet looks good. you want a -- >> tell me, greg. tell me that 15 is not resistance because it keeps bumping up -- >> it absolutely is. and i love the fact that you're watching your charts. i love that you know it has been resistant. but it has to be part of your portfolio. i think we do break through 15. own ge. >> and don't discount the fact that it's made a 30% move in o'two months. >> that's true. >> let's wait and see. we've talked about all these various stocks going up and stalling. it's okay to stall. some of us used to call that basing before you go to the next level. >> i remember ge when it was in the 30s. let's move on to the next trade here. gold rallying today finishing the week at 1,004. a new 2009 closing high. this as the dollar of course is diving to a new low for the year. joe terranova, you're long. >> i'm remaining long gold futures. the settlement in gold was

critical today because it was above the previous high for the year at 1,490. today it settled at 1,006.40. 1 rk 033.90, that's the bear stearns moment, that's when we made that high. that's the next target right now. there is no reason technically, there is no reason fundamentally right now to get out of gold. >> let's go to the expert on that, greg. >> i agree with joe. my objective here was 1,017. came within a few dollars of it. but the critical thing is if we do not break above 1,033 in the next four weeks be careful here. i would start to put some puts on if it looks like we're really not going to break through that level. >> and we should make that break above 1,033 in the next two weeks. that should happen and the reason that should happen is seasonally the dollar, this is the weakest month if you go back to 1968 september is the worst performing month for the dollar, second worst october, third worst november. the seasonality's there for gold. >> joey is -- in fact, he's

right. because unlike oil, which did not hold that relationship, gold is holding that relationship. so what do you want to do on the currency side? you've got to follow the other commodity currencies. if you believe like i do, like joey does, that the dollar is going to continue to trend lower. and i think 73.50 is where we're going to get on this thing before you really see any support on it. but that's the australian dollar. the fxa if you want to play the etf. or fxc. canada, australia, even norway because of a huge oil surplus they have, those are the currencies you like, and brazil. >> is there a basket of those currencies? for the average person you don't want to go invest in the australian and canadian and individual currencies. >> honestly, i think the nice thing about these etfs is the fxa and fxc and bzf, which is wisdom tree's brazil etf, i think you can create your own basket, quite honestly. that's the easiest way. and unfortunately we were not able to play currencies like that. norway i don't believe we can play over here but -- >> forget all the excitement about gold for a moment as dennis gartman talked about 1% or 2% of the population that's

what you've got percentagewise in your portfolio in gold. let's forget gold for a second. look at the steel names. look at the copper names. copper did pull back today. did you see what freeport-mcmoran did? it closed higher. you can see these charts. it will be an interesting one for us to look at, greg. the freeport-mac chart. finally broke through 3.69 which was a big resistance level. and with copper trading near $3, i know it hasn't gotten through that level, that says a lot about what these companies were making. they were making money at $2. what are they doing at $2.88, $3? >> pete, you're absolutely right except you said one of the most bullish things on gold i heard, only 1% or 2% of the population. that's -- >> not population. your portfolio. sorry about that. no, i'm sure the population has jumped all over this great trade. >> over the last ten years gold has been one of the best things to have in your portfolio. look at the return over the last ten years. but talking about freeport-mcmoran, you now have a point of reference if you want to get out of the stock based on today's price action. it opened up on the highs, made

the highs pilot spoke about, and as copper rolled over free porlt-mac went with it. i would actually be very cautious in owning freeport-mcmoran until cop consider get back with a 3 handle. >> melissa, don't be cautious because you can own the puts and then you can sleep at night. it's the cheapest volatility you've ever had. it's dirt cheap. you buy your protection and then you can sleep at night and you can watch freeport go even higher. >> talk about commander dirty planet down there, who loves coal. coal names are breaking out this week. cliffs, arch coal, and this is the difference. you're seeing rotation within the resource space, getting coal upgrades this week. coke and coal. and coal are getting bid from the steel companies. i was at a bunch of conferences this week. deutsche had a big emerging market conference, some of the biggest steel companies in the world p their iron ore prices are going up, coke and coal prices are going up. that's the rotation. they broke ut this week and they're going higher. >> and a. & r. pulled back. maybe it was to do with the fact they're talking about more m&a. they're looking around for even more to spend. it will be interesting. >> i'm going to go real quick on

this but keep your eye on global shipping rates, melissa they're falling right now. global shipping rates go down, the prices of copper generally go down. >> are you watching bd snichlt. >> you can use b dichlt. there's two, three, four. you can use baltic dry shipping. you can use that as well. >> let's talk about financials and specifically morgan stanley. the story of the week certainly. john mack announcing yesterday that he will be stepping down as ceo of morgan stanley next year. james gorman, the co-president, will assume the ceo spot. what does this mean for your investment in morgan stanley? let's bring in brad hints, former ceo, morgan stanley treasurer currently a top-ranked analyst at sanford bernstein. brad, pleasure to have you with us. reading through your research notes you make some good points. first of all that james gorman has no operational experience in investment banking and sales or trading which is more than 50% of the business. why should we give him the benefit of the doubt at this point when we've got other stocks making some nice runs like goldman sachs which hit a

52-week high today? >> you've hit on a very good point, which is, you know, morgan stanley, we've seen on the trading side has been underperforming. so what is -- what are we seeing in the marketplace today? trading is doing very well. fixed income's doing well. we're seeing it in the united states. we're seeing it in europe. and morgan stanley seems to be taking the action to improve their trading business. so -- but i don't see that actually generating the performance until early 2010. you don't just hire traders and give them balance sheet and let them loose. you slowly add the capital to them. you slowly add the risk. yes, they're doing what's necessary. they're going to disappoint on the trading side relative to a goldman sachs, relative to a jpmorgan, relative to a barclays in q3, q4. for gorman i think the issue that you have is you've got exactly the right man to run retail. >> brad, but look, morgan stanley is not -- is by no means a second-class trader. they are one of the top trading

shops on the street. maybe they're not goldman sachs. but put your cfo hat on and go back to morgan stanley's second quarter earnings. people are calling them out for losing money in the second quarter where goldman made a lot of money. these guys, without the accounting related to their debt buyback costs, would have made money no? and are we losing sight of the fact these guys are getting taken down really more on an accounting glitch? yes, they were not as much as goldman but you cannot say this isn't one of the best trading shops on the street. and just because we've got a guy coming in there who's got a brokerage background that doesn't have to change. >> you do have mack. he does know the trading side. but i disagree with you on your characterization of q2. i think what you saw in q2 is their corporate bond area trade extremely well. governments was a disappointment. mortgage-backed agency was a disappointment. they cut too far in mortgage-backeds, they didn't give enough balance sheet and customer financing in governments. their market share dropped in terms of governments.

they used to be a number two, number three primary dealer. they were down around 9, 8, 9, which meant they didn't see the flow. they can get that back. me just can't get that back quickly. >> brad, how much time do you give james gorman? at what point do you say i'm going to pull the plug and my doubts have come to roost? >> we're not talking about that. what we're really saying is we're taking a guy who in the last 25 years he spent 30% of the time in retail brokerage, 40% of the time in consulting, 7% of the time in asset management. by the way, you'll notice there's no investment banking or trading. so he's exactly the right guy to be focusing on integrating smith barney and morgan stanley. and what you're doing is you're pushing him up. and so unless i'm mistaken the ceo job is a full-time job. what you're really doing is you're pushing out the integration. if you get the right guy on the job to integrate and you're taking him out and now -- what's going to happen is you're going

to have the standard internal battles of the smith barney guys fighting the morgan stanley guys. >> john, it's greg. i agree with you it's an opportunity cost. it's a stock i would not go into at this point. we'll take a look in a few minutes. i think there are other choices on the financial side. >> brad, i just want to ask you one question today. you certainly have expressed your doubts about james gorman, but also his positives that he brings to the table. when it comes to goldman sachs, though, because that seems to be cited as the best in breed on the street out there, today hit a 52-week high. if you had fresh capital to put to work today, where would you put it if you had to pick one stock in your universe? >> it's embarrassing, but i'd put it in goldman. now, i'd put it in goldman -- >> the place you didn't work at. >> exactly. if i could put it into lehman or bear stearns or salomon brothers i would. this is the best place that's

left. >> brad hints joining us from sanford bernstein. he's honest in his assessment. >> he makes a good point. that was part of that whole citigroup update of goldman sachs. they were talking about the potential, they raised the eps for 2009. you've got to like the direction of goldman sachs. and 200 is not a pipe dream. >> and the second part of that upgrade of goldman sachs was a lowering of the estimates of citi on the back. lowering of the estimates, sorry, of morgan stanley by citi on the back of mack's stepping down. all right. let's move on to talk the tape today and talk about fed ex. stock closing up more than 6% as it raised its first quarter earnings outlook. also gives a pretty bullish second quarter outlook as well. if you're a dow theorist, joey, as timmy likes to call. hey, timmy. >> how you doing? >> absolutely. the performance today with fed ex, would it translate in terms of global commerce, this is a great story right now. if you look at the transports, they clearly are leading the tape higher right now. the one spot i would be slightly cautious for my friend commander planet, he loves the word caution-s if you look at rails.

right now the rails today, not in love with that price action. so you might want to go see and get yourself some puts, petey, because you need a little -- >> cautious kochts. >> and we talked about yesterday the fact that they've gotten to a level where they've had a little struggle in the past. you look at some of the runs they've had, norfolk southern, for instance, it's near the 52-week highs. you look at burlington northern. these stocks are at areas where they seem to fail and have a hard time. >> the dow theorist thing i've definitely made mention of that. but with fed ex note this people calling it a leader because 80% of their volume is domestic traffic. the reason for these numbers, the upgrade is international traffic. in china going to india. and this is the problem. this is not necessarily the leading indicator that fed ex is telling you today if you want to believe it. >> the other problem is that they raised the forecast that they lowered. so sort of backtracking in terms of managing their assets out there. >> i'll tell you technically there's very little resistance at 76 and you can have a clear glide path up to 80 in fed ex. i like it technically.

>> i like it. >> yeah. >> glide. >> love it. >> more word on the street on the other side. coming up next we head to the charts and see what the rest of september could have in store for these markets. here's what else is coming up on "fast." the bulls get another up week in the books. but are the bears going into hibernation for the winter or looking to stay up for a fall fight? we see if the bears are taking us for a ride. next. and it usually slides under the radar. is this trade going to take off in the fall? the street's top analyst navigates the space. plus, a year ago it pushed wall street to the brink. the liquidator gives us his lesson from lehman when america's post-market show continues.

slow grind upward. that's the most bullish type of environment you can have. the only thing i want to watch out for over the next two days is a bull trap where we've gone to a new high and all of a sudden we lose that high and close below the last couple days' low. other than that we look pretty solid. >> how about the glide path up to 1160 on the s&p which is really where we fell through? i don't know how we define the glide path. that feels like it would be a glide path. >> i will tell you, tim, that 1,150 is a pretty important area and as we look at the long-term chart here if we go to the long-term chart we can focus in on that a little bit because right around 1,120, 1,150 is a 50% retracement from the high to

the absolute low over the last year and a half. and that's why that level is extremely important. the fact we got through 38% retrace was around 1,013. the next level for that now would be up around 1,125 or a little bit higher. >> greg, when you look at these s&p charts, doesn't 2009 just look exactly like 2003? as you said, a slow gradual stair-step climb higher and higher? >> well, it's funny you say that because it does in effect but there's a main difference here. what we have made up of a 38% retracement of this entire loss took much longer back in 2003. it was many months more. this has been a much more exciting acceleration here from the lows. >> all right. let's talk, greg, about a stock that so many people want to know about, apple. certainly a nice run. it's been a double in the past six months. big events. the event is over now. so what's the direction? >> melissa, we talked about apple all week. what i do like about it, 21-day moving average line is positive. and you and i talked about this a couple days ago. as long as we hold 167, 168 on a

close basis over the next two weeks i think it can go up to about 185, 190. a close below 168, 167, i would start to take profits, traders. and remember, always be cautious on a stock that's trading above 150, 180. i mean, these are expensive stocks. you have to own apple but if you're getting into it late in the game you have to be extremely cautious. 168 is probably an inflection point. >> all right, greg, thank you. and we say this again and again on this desk and certainly pete najarian does but apple's implied volatility, two-year lows on that. and puts are logical -- >> it makes complete sense of why you'd want to protect your portfolio in something like an apple, something like goldman sachs, because you still believe in the story but why not? when you can get it at the cheapest levels in two years, why wouldn't you buy the protection? it makes complete sense. great opportunity to still ride that up side. and there's still plenty of up side there. >> moving on to the next trade here, strange options activity in energy conversion devices today as the company confirms

that the ceo has pulled out of a scheduled appearance at the think equity conference. so you know, you flagged this earlier. >> tuesday. >> heavy call activity. >> absolutely incredible call activity. about 50,000 options traded. it's been averaging about 3,500. 50,000 on the call side. most of them isolated toward september. september 12 1/2, september 13, september 14. incredible activity. some of that activity returned again today. by the way, they traded 16 million shares on tuesday, the most active day of the year in energy conversion devices. it moved up about 25%. didn't know exactly why. we still don't know why. we know there's a monster short interest in the stock. we do know that they pulled out of this conference. plenty of different reasons why they may have pulled out of this conference. >> actually, we did call the company. so we should share with you what they had to say. the cfo was scheduled to present at the conference next week, but with an acquisition that he is working on as well as earnings the quarter close, he is unable to make the conference.

simply scheduling reasons. >> and that stock was moving again today in very, very heavy option activity. not nearly as heavy as it was the other day but very heavy noms, heavy again in the stock with 7 million shares, normally trading 2 million shares a day. and that short interest once again. it's like 31%. that could be something that's absolutely pushing the stock up to the up side as well. >> let's move on and talk a little biotech here. been laing the market. many analysts see the space rey ready to break out. when will biotech get the shot in the arm it needs? joining us is top-ranked analyst mark shownenbaum from deutsche bank. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> i want to ask you about the attempted deal of the week and that would be biogen idex and facets. >> excellent. >> does biogen idex actually need faets that bad sfli do you think they'll go back -- >> you know, i don't think it's a life or death situation for biog biogen. it was a perfect target. it's a company they already have a partnership with. for the multiple sclerosis drug. it's a company they already knew

the drug and it's a company the top management at facets came out of biogen. they know this company well. biogen's clever, a financially savvy company. it was trading below the cash on its own book. the bid it puts in say great deal. they're going to need identify more but i think in the end they're going to get this done. >> i skod that question as a lead-in to the next one. the whole reason we have you here is the fall outlook. do you expect a lot more m&a activity going on? because we already see it across other industries so why not biotech? >> well, i've got to tell you there's only five big sbli o'techs lefl left, amgen, genentech, celgene, those types. for the sake miff careen i other hope they're not bought. in small cap there's 300 or 400 and all of those are fair games. valuations are depressed over the last few years interest is starting to kriep there's even a financing window happening. a lot of bigger companies are realizing they've got to act now or these stocks are going to run away from them. they missed this opportunity, stocks ran away.

>> celgene's basically underperformed, i think you'd agree. what would be the next catalyst to get that stock to push back up to where everybody figures the value should be right noup. >> it depends when i start coming. year to date. performed very well off the lows. what happened back in july they had a data set that came out for their cancer drug revelmid. that was a big surprise, about two months ahead of schedule, the data wasn't fantastic. however, we haven't seen all that data. all that data's going to come out in december at a very important medical meeting. i think it's going tieb positive catalyst. in addition another catalyst people haven't talked much about, a drug called epremelast, a drug for sorias. it's a skin deas. not a lot out there. this could be one of the first pills for soriasis. data comes out in october. >> talking about headwinds, how about -- what's the outlook for the next three months for genzyme? >> okay. that is the most controversial stock in all of biotechnology. here's the deal on genzyme.

these guys produce drugs for very rare but very serious genetic diseases. they've got two drugs, the zyme drugs i call them. serazyme and fabrazyme. they had to shut down their single plant that makes this stuff back in july. what they told people was we're going to be back up in november, it's a single -- it's a divot, we're going to get it fixed. what's happened, though-s they got some surprise letters from the fda in august that took our confidence back a little. there's about a 60% shop shot they get this resolved. if it does get resolved it goes from the 54 level to about 60, $65 level. but if it doesn't there's a lot of risk. the stock's probably in the mid 40s. if they get through this, this is one of the cheapest stocks in the entire biotech sector right now. >> mark, sorry to interrupt, just quickly what's the best trade in your universe? what's the stock you would own going into the fall? >> going into the fall, gilead, gild, a phenomenally managed company. one of the best base

fundamentals. the third quarter numbers come out in october i think they're probably going to beat expectations. that's another one of stheekz that kind of lagged but high quality. it could catch up. >> mark schoenebaum from deutsche bank. do you like gilead, pete? >> i do. that's a guy adami favorite. mine is celgene but his is gilead. we're both on target i hope. >> time to go around the floor, see what's floating around there. in honor of those who lost their lives in the attacks on september 11th on this national day of service, cantor fitzgerald and bgc partner 4e8d their charity day. celebrity brokers like lady gaga, whoopi goldberg helped raise more than $13 million by conducting real trades with their clients. 100% of the revenues made today will be distributed to dozens of charities. so hats off to bgc as well as cantor fitzgerald and all those out there who are serving our country on this national day of service. coming up next we head to the pits and tell you why options traders are betting big on then't casino names. should you double down along

with them or walk away? you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

welcome back. time now for "fast flash" when we alert to you a stock or index hitting a major milestone. the vix briefly, if you blinked you might have missed it. 52-week low intraday, pete. tell me about this because you're the one saying maybe, maybe not. >> we definitely got to a low today. what that low was exactly i'm not really sure. i mean, it was a real fractionate moment where we hit a low. but nonetheless we're down at the very low end. got to look at that and you've got to think to yourself given the marketplace that we've got and some of the concerns you've all got here, whether -- >> and the anniversary of lehman coming up. >> all of that adds up to me to tell me that it's an okay area to own some volatility right now. in other words, own premium. >> right. >> the question, though, pete, seasonally, again-f we look at leaving aside lehman if i want to buy, for example, we were buying puts today because we think it's an incredibly cheap time to buy puts on emerging markets which are year highs. run, run, run. do you buy them at -- in the short run you can protect yourself from now till

christmas, but where is the best, the most efficient for your money place to be buying puts in sneer is it short dated? is it medium dated? do i go out half a year? >> you've got to target october or december options right now. those are your best bet. >> time now to take your positions. president obama will address wall street on monday about the need for action in order to present another crisis from heaping. here's what treasury secretary tim geithner had to say on cnbc last night in that town hall exclusive about the need for reform. >> you cannot have an ferk effective financial system if banks get to choose who their regulators are. if they get to choose how much capital they hold-f they get to decide where how to hold risk. it doesn't work. we had a test of that it didn't work out for the country. >> we all know the president will seek tougher regulation. the question is what will it be. any thoughts here? >> regulation has broken down. i've been on the street since 1983. they don't va effective

regulators. it's triem to get street people at a decent salary into the system there so they can regulate the business that they know. >> what's interesting too is everyone's putting down morgan stanley's business strategy, less risk but if you look at the guys that are going to suffer the most in the new environment it's t it's not only the guys involved in some of the biggest mortgage underwriting and the biggest access to the consumer but the guys taking the biggest risks. if we tell people morgan stanley is a bad place to look at because they're going to the consumer model they're wrong. they want guys that are dealing with consumers, that are dealing with the brokerage community and they're not going to be running afoul. i think that's a plus for firms like morgan stanley here. >> right. to be fair, it's not 30-1 or retail consumers. there's somewhere in the middle. >> also, let's wait and hear what president obama has to say on monday. we had a conversation here two weeks ago with dr. laura tyson where we quizzed her on why

president obama has not come to wall street yet. i think it's great he is coming to wall street. let's wait and hear what he has to say. and hopefully 5:00 he'll be here on "fast money" with us. >> i completely agree with tim as far as john mack's concerned, the direction of morgan stanley, the fact 15-1 may be the area of risk tolerance makes complete sense. the regulators do need to know what they're looking for. >> let's move on to the next trade. talk about a hot hand. shares of casino stock lvs, las vegas sands, down 1,000% in the last six months as the threat of bankruptcy disappears. scott nations of nations shares is one of those traders. he's also of course an "options action" contributor. scott, we had an upgrade on this name what did you see in the pits today? >> well, as you said, this has really been a hot table. nobody wants to walk away, so they continue to roll the dice in vegas sands. we saw a couple interesting call buys. earlier in the day we saw somebody buy 15,000 of the jan

20 calls. remember, that's the expiration where we saw a bunch of the $15 calls bought a couple of months ago. so we see more interest in the jan expiration. then later in the day we saw somebody buy 25,000 of the september 17 half calls. they paid 40 cents for those. even those are still 80 cents out of the money and those options are expiring soon. as you said, they're still rolling the dice. these are really -- las vegas sands and wynn are really the two best names in this space because they have great exposure to macau and they have come a long way. but remember, las vegas sands is still well below its 52-week low. >> i always stay at the wynn. that's my premier place in las vegas. >> that's because they're comping you. >> now they should comp you for sure. >> please. >> if i got comped, i'd stay there too. >> but sands is a much more attractive price.

a lot more up side potential. >> all right, scott, thanks so much grour time. i'll see you later on. "options action." of course don't forget to catch scott and myself on "options action" at its new time, 8:30 p.m. eastern time on cnbc. okay. the flifrs anniversary of lehman brothers' collapse just a few days away. the impact rippled through and affected traders on this desk tonight. tonight we hear joe terranova's lessons from lehman. >> some of the biggest names in american business are tonight gone along with a lot of money and a lot of jobs. >> never before had the actual model of the financial markets themselves come into question. the credit market itself froze. when you're trading, there's this bond, there's this trust. when those credit markets froze, you didn't know if any counterparty was creditworthy or was solvent. that's what scared me the most. it is the equivalent of you and

i walking into a large banquet hall, hundreds of people there, and before we walk in there i say listen, there's someone in this room who has a very, very highly contagious disease. what would happen? you're going to avoid contact with everyone in the entire room. and that's exactly what happened because of lehman. the problem that merrill's having, the problem that lehman's having, washington mutual and aig, it's how are they going to raise the capital that they need? they need to raise capital. and the market is convinced that there's no viable option to raise to capital. >> i have a 95-year-old grandmother who survived the great depression. if you go to a restaurant with her, the dinner rolls, she wraps them up in a napkin and stuffs them in her pocketbook. and i now understand why. because the trading world, you lose the value of a dollar. clearly. you lose that. this gave you a little perspective again. >> joe, certainly an event that changed you. >> yeah. i mean, well, i don't know how

much it changed me. i'm now joey instead of joe. but when you look at the market itself and when you're trading what you're investing, you always have to remember -- and based on what we saw last year with lehman, the unthinkable can happen. whatever you think is unthinkable, that actually can happen. and what do you do with that besides what pete does and what pete and jon always talk about on the show is great, utilizing puts, utilizing calls, that's phenomenal. but in addition to that, you have to use stop-loss orders. you put a seat belt on when you drive, you have to use a stop-loss order. >> okay. want to bring you some breaking news. sorry to sort of jump on your tail there, joe. ung, united states natural gas furngsd h fund has made a filing saying it will begin issuing new shares on september 28th. this is the eeflt that tracks the underlying commodity of natural gas. it said a couple weeks back that it would stop issuing new shares and that's why we're seeing this premium share on the ung, about a 9% premium to the current

contract on natural gas. so this is interesting news here. >> thing about that trade, though, the short interest in ung went through the roof -- >> it's because of this. because of the premium. >> because guys were saying that premium needs to go away. now guys may have to rush back in to cover that because this will go away. so the interesting part about this trade is even though there's more stock out there, you would think, more supply, this thing could actually go up. >> take a look at ung in the after-hours session. we are looking at the collapse, just at about the premium it was trading over natural gas itself, declined in the after-hours on the back of this news. again, ung will resume issuing shares starting september 28th. >> what does that mean about the cf cftc's involvement? does that mean they're off the hook? >> i think what it means is we're going to get some further guidance over the cftc itself over the next few weeks and hopefully we'll get a better understanding of all the etfs right now and the model will

change. john-highland told us a couple weeks ago instead of having one or two lark etfs you're going to have four or five, six small ones. >> this goes back to some of the things you're talking about in your interview, the lehman, not knowing what's going to happen here. that the rules are changing seeming i. every day is a big problem. they already forced deutsche bank to close down its oil fund -- >> deutsche just to be clear decided to close it themselves. >> they said it was a regulatory event. anyway, this is a concern for traders in the market. >> but for all those who want to invest in natural gas you now have the etfback and its premium to the underlying commodity has in fact come out. that's good news for all you guys yesterday. coming up next big news in the steel stocks and will that continue or will the trade lose its steam? we've got your answers in "pops and drops." that's next. .

welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq marketsite in times square tonight. time to get the stocks that were making extreme moves for the week. time for our weekly edition of "pops and drops." pop here for the mother ship, general electric. up 6%. greg? >> melissa is a closet technician, folks. remember, 15 is resistance. >> i'm out, greg. >> i think it breaks through --

>> breaks at 15. >> if it comes back to 13, add. >> pop and then a drop for natural gas. >> when was the last time natural gas was actually a pop? i'd love to know that. probably not since last year. probably natural gas it bounced off 2.50 got back to 3 bucks, went back -- eog, apache, devon, xto, we talked last week about owning them. if you do, get flat them now. >> pop here for freeport-mac up 7% on the week. pete. >> freeport-mcmoran, copper, and gold, melissa lee, that stock moves higher this week and it finally got through an area that's been administrative for a while fwhou, a lot over 69, 69.50 area. keep an eye on freeport, it's going higher. >> i don't think you ever called me by my full name. i feel like i'm in trouble. pop for the steel stocks like ak -- >> well, melissa lee was up in china. capacity utilization at 100%.

>> pop for aetna. >> yeah, melissa, don't get lulled into it. democrats did a good job of pushing it up a little this week but still a lot of trouble there. >> aig was down for the week 4%. joe. >> we had tom gallagher on on tuesday. he was the analyst that downgraded aig. listen, the math just does not add up for aig right now. we've got a $15 price target. that puts it at 75 cents. right now they've sold about $9 billion worth of assets in a fire sale. they've got a long way to go to pay off the government. >> monsanto down for the week by 5%. pete. >> the ag players have done well but this isn't just a fertilizer play it's much, much more, it's a feed business and when they lowered their guidance for '09 and 2010 put a big pressure on the stock. that's a drop. >> and here's my favorite pop of the whole week. pop here for winkers. jane wells brought us this gem on they are cnbc "funny business" blog which i do urge you to check out. seattle diner william jones has

created jeans that appear to wink as you're walking away. but you have to be willing to pay. pairs cost anywhere from $160 to $580 a pair. >> is that you? >> it's not me. >> apparently, you need to have a real tight, muscular butt. >> i think the bigger the better based on the eyeballs. >> we need to stop right now. >> that was my point. >> if you're going to paint eyeballs on your butt, then a big canvas would be good. >> i'm not talking about tight muscular butts. >> is there a way to go long the police department? because a lot of men are going to be arrested when these come out. >> let's end here before we get in trouble here. coming up, we grill our traders on some trades gone cold. tell you what your next move should be if you've been playing along. we're back after this.

as the summer came to a close and some investors finally headed back to work, our traders never took their eyes off the tape, trying to keep you quicker than the ticker. >> i am long sun corps, weatherford. i truly think commodities continue their path higher, and i do believe 75 bucks in oil that may abe low over the next three months. >> the liquidator giving you not one but two great plays off a commodity boom. as oil hit $72, these names rallied, jumping 7% each. >> take a look at walter industries. pete's been talking about it went from 16 to 60. recently pulled back down to 54. somebody slapped a $69 price target on it.

valuations are pretty reasonable in this thing. this stock could still go higher. >> the negotiator believing this trade was far from over after announcing a restructuring of their credit line and a new ceo, the stock took off, jumping 11%. >> they've been able to rise the prices for paper and pulp and i'll tell you, what today an unusual amount of both calls in the 22 and 23 lines of international paper. keep an eye on this name, there might be even more up side coming. >> the pit boss using the options market as a tell for this trade. shares of this paper name soared 7% after receiving a price target upgrade at credit suisse. >> with credit suisse downgrade. they're greting erosion in the market share of smartphone space even though they're still 35%. i don't think that's a reason to throw the stock out the window and it has been. >> and the ambassador ringing up profits by refusing to give up on this trade in nokia. after announcing it would enter the netbook arena, the stock rallied 10%. leaving us two words -- fast money. all right. let's do the fast fire now. august 17th ambassador says to short this internet stock.

>> a place where we'd really like to get our high octane down side protection or even go directional in china is baidu because you get some of that tech play and also china. this is one of the most heavily momentum played stocks. it's a crowded trade. we are short here. we do think it's going down. >> from that day on baidu is up -- >> i was right on the momentum, wrong on the direction. it's scary stuff. they are under pressure for music piracy in china but baidu's a monster. i'm wrong. >> liquidator says to bet gefrns this travel name. >> i put some puts in carnival cruise lines, ccl. i just can't see the travel industry having any form of resiliency through the remainder of the year. if the obama administration comes in on the low end of what the impact could be. >> uh-oh. the stock is up 7%. joe. >> the stock is going to sink. this is my swine flu trade. i am short. >> everybody else gets a pass on the desk for being nice tonight. final trade right after this.

and just a reminder, on sunday night 10:00 p.m. eastern time maria bartiromo will have a special "one year later: reflections from the street." she'll sit down with vikram pandit, john mack, and other top bosses on wall street. time now for the final trade. tim? >> 9/11. a tribute to our fallen heroes. never forget. >> okay. i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. see you back here monday. 5:00 p.m. for more "fast money."