♪ and that may be ♪ all i need ♪ to know (announcer) customers love ge aircraft engines almost as much as we love making them. innovation today for america's tomorrow.

live from the nasdaq market site, this is "fast money." and later google heading towards $500 a share. will it make it? the winning call. plus, the one thing missing through this recovery, jobs. karen finerman finds out where they'll kol from. but first, let's go down and get the word on the street. break down this winning week.

guy, we have been in the camp of the debbie downers for a long time. >> i'm the only person in the camp. these guys have been spot on. it's been me in the camp. go ahead. >> let's take a look at this week, best week since late july. we've had new leadership emerging. the mothership, general electric. projector and gamble also advancing nicely. what do you say? you can't fight the tape. the market wants to go higher. but am i still optimistic? no. jobs aren't coming back anytime soon. you saw the july numbers down $ 21 billion. that's a major number. people are saving, but guess what sni mean, people are not spending -- they won't spend. jobs aren't coming back anytime soon. the markets discounted all that, great. the tape wants to go higher but

no, i'm not optimistic. >> projector and gamble upgrade, an earnings upgrade. jpmorgan was out today saying the stock market is is a leading intd kay tor. they say that's foreshadowing the third quarter. the other side is allocation trade. >> if i were to be the debbie downer, basically projector and gamble is embracing the fact that they need to start cutting prices and start being aggressive because consumers aren't buying products when they're at higher prices. isn't that sort of admitting that the economy isn't there, that the consumers aren't there paying up for whatever it is. >> we're not really talking about discretionary. so i'm not worried one way or another quite honestly about projector and gamble. my point is this is about people expecting earnings to go higher. we said this and i'm going to say this again.

we're going into the final couple of weeks in the quarter. these pullbacks, we said it yesterday, are going to be shall shallow. don't expect you're going to get a 15% to jump back in and buy your freeports. a lot of these company, they've missed. >> are you starting to pull the trigger on some of the cash on the sidelines? >> no, in fact, i'm taking some off. the valuations are getting so stretched. and some of the defensive trades i have on do not work on this kind of environment at all. you would think walmart has worked. it's gone absolutely nowhere. it seems impervious to any uptrend in the market. 13 times next year's earnings i think is great but it does not move pop i used the technical analogy of 2003 throughout 2009. if you look at 2003 and you look at the options expiration for september, that's kind of where you had a top in the market. what do i think right here? i'm going to jump into guy's

debbie downer camp. >> whoa. a defection. >> i am defecting from the bull camp. i think right here through the remainder of the month, here's an opportunity for timmy's small shallow correction to happen in the marketplace. i actually today put on a bunch of bearish positions and i believe over the next two weeks we are going to get a little bit of a correction. >> i'm already unsuccessful in my attempts to get a trade in the first four minutes of the show. karen finerman will agree with me on this one. abercrombm krobercrombie and fi. at some point that catches up. valuation will catch up at 22 times forward earnings. guess what? this stock made a high of 34.95 on august 14. trading 34.25 now. it semiseth sets up real easy. i think you can get short this one, especially if the tape reverses. valuations don't make sense.

it's a great company, great story. they're doing everything right. you can't make people buy things frankly. their comps prove it. they're running the business better, but the stock's run out of gas. >> agree with you absolutely. that one is so stretch. you can be long american eagle, long aeropostale. >> definitely some pessimism when it comes to market direction. certain stocks. yesterday, we asked all of you out there whether or not the dow would reach 10,000. 47% said no, 53% said yes. >>. ♪ any day now >> i was thinking of that song when i said that. >> down at the end of the desk there, joe, you have switched

your position on gold? >> i haven't switched but there is a deflection once again. i've been a gold long. i've maintained my gold position in the futures market. i've gotten off that train. we are unable to take out the bear stearns high from early 2008. the market right now looks like it wants to pull back a little bit. if you get gold below 1,000, you are going to have a shakeout in the market. also take a look at the copper futures market. this is a great tell on the global economy. it is clearly when you talk about copper, it is the thermometer for the global economy. and copper right now can't get the three handle back on it right now. today again, lower again. that's why i'm very cautious right now about where we sit in the entire marketplace. >> i agree with you. the key thing about this range, it's not break on the down side. the earnings for these big copper companies, down in peru,

freeport, southern copper, pcu, all these kinds, their earnings will be upgraded. keep that in mind when you're looking at valuations because they're not valued for 275 copper. >> it's all been about the dollar, okay? the dollar started to see a little bit of a foundation a little bit of turning around. if you believe the dollar is going to rally here, you don't want to own gold. and if you do believe the dollar is going to rally the uup replicates the dixie with exact weightings, very interesting. >> that's just so crowded. it's about to be on the cover of business week this story.

and you know, that's the -- absolutely. >> let's come back for one second on the fundamentals of copper because again, this is important for the entire economy. if you look right now, inventory, 16 days in a row. the lme measures inventories. we've had 16 consecutive days of inventories rising. it will also show you that china, they are not restocking at the levels that they did in q1 and q2. i'm bullish on copper long-term, i'm bullish on commodities, but i believe what's in front of us right now allows for an opportunity for correction and i think the copper tape is telling you. >> imf announced $13 billion of gold sales. >> $13 billion of gold sales. >> in an orderly manner without disrupting the market. >> check's in the mail. no more gold. let's move on. >> how about the miners? how about the miners? are they overpriced? >> yes. >> gold miners, absolutely. >> 30 times earnings for guys that traded 20 times and a lot of places where you have people like barrick buying back their hedges, i don't think that's a great move, by the way, and i don't think other guys are going to rush in there. the miners scare me here. >> face it, when it's a chase you're going at someone else's speed, not your own, and when that happens, that is a great tell that you're going to be wrong.

>> so many pockets in these markets these days are a chase. next trade, industrials closing out the week on a high note. ge, caterpillar leading the pack. ge ending higher by 13% for the week. caterpillar ending up more than 10% for the week. these are huge moves. where are we positioned in terms of going into next week? can we continue to hold on to 16? >> let me put an explanation point. i felt it could get through 15. here's what's good about ge and they had their ge investor today. the one thing they talked about today, the tip on everybody's tongue is technology. their services technology, their products technology. if you look at all these infrastructure spends, we've had the allocations to the various vendors but we haven't started to see the spending yet. it's about to happen. this is great for ge. also on the nbc side, jay leno's first night getting a lot of very positive play. the bottom line is nbc has been part of the driver for people at ge. >> and that was behind that sanford upgrade we saw earlier this week. >> honeywell has four core businesses. two of them are doing lousy. it's autos and basically real estate. and if you believe the real estate market has bottomed and

auto market has bottomed, which i don't really have a view on, you've got to look at honeywell. clez closed above 40. slow and steady for a while. >> if you look strictly at the technicals, look at the price o. slow and steady for a while. >> if you look strictly at the technicals, look at the price action in ge and caterpillar, you will think the market that's clearly topped out. ge got up to 17 the 82, i believe, 52-week high, pulled back dramatically. was unable to recover, get back above 17. caterpillar the same type of action today as well. both those stocks, technically the price action looks like it's topped out. >> let's move on to the next trade, oil stagnant on the week but oil stocks breaking out. chevron, conoco all closing the week higher by more than 3%. joe, what did you make of the move here? >> by the way, ge was 17.52 high, not 17.82 high. i'm wrong on that. on oil, tape in oil, first of all, the volume in oil is down. it looks like oil is able to sustain above $70, which if it does so that positions it to move above 80, 85. but i also think a lot of

speculators right now are moving away from oil and they're moving into natural gas. that's one of the reasons natural gas is rising. the commodity tape right now is very choppy. the grain market is not participating. the sugar market has come off. when you look at the energy market, it's all about natural gas right now, and yet oil still is above 70 bucks. i believe right now in oil there really is no trade. that's the best trade. >> this week, if you needed a reason not to be in ung, this week gave it to you. ung basically does nothing, but nat gas has been explosive. we talked about it. i still say the best way to play nat gas is some of these names like apache. to me it's broken out. look at the move it's had in a week and a half to two weeks from 85 to 94. that's where you want to be. ung, grim death. >> look at the commodity currencies, the canadian dollar, australian dollar. again, that's going to be a great read on where we're going. both of those look toppy. >> karen, you're watching a cs call today. >> yes, on chevron. that is an integrated we talked about. and actually you, we were talking before the show about their natural gas exposure and

for some of the other big guys how natural gas is going to be a meaningful part. i think -- i don't know if we've seen the bottom bottom, but i think that natural gas will get a lot more focus, and i sort of think it's -- long-term it is going to be part of the energy solution. so i am bullish on natural gas. i totally agree with guy not to play it in the ung. even a name like chesapeake. >> your old friend. >> oh, it hurts you to say that name, doesn't it? >> it really does. >> let's talk about the chart of the day now, bring that in because it's a very interesting one. and this is courtesy of the ambassador. top portion of the screen showing the shanghai composite in 2009 while the bottom shows the dow in 1987 precrash. as you can see, the shanghai is following an eerily similar pattern to the dow of 8750. timmy, break this down. >> if i had a renminbi for every person that sent me this chart today -- they led on markets up, they led on markets down -- it's

a good one, isn't it? i like that. it's friday. the bottom line is you do have to pay attention to china but the point is people are tracing this back to the formation we saw right before the fall in '87. so if you look at these charts, they're eerily similar. i'd point out, though, that the shanghai obviously is not even -- the locals market, we talked about the shanghai a-shares trade. but the reality is this is something people are watching. china the a-shares were down 8% last night. people two weeks ago would have lost their minds over this number. be careful. >> let's move on, talk about the home builders closing the week on a high point. jpmorgan upgrading kb homes and toll brothers. jpmorgan saying it believes the worse is over for the housing sector. interestingly, though, this comes 24 hours after the founder of toll sold 1.58 million shares of his company on september 16. so i don't know, that seems look a bad sign. >> well, they're not alone, by the way. i mean, insider selling over the last few weeks has outpaced insider buying something like 80-1, which tells you that a lot of people -- and look at companies.

they're all selling as much stock, but with toll it is particularly disconcerting. if you look at the housing sector, though, i think next week we really have our kind of proof in the pudding data. we have housing starts, we have new home sales. these are the figures. and ultimately the housing price index, which is up 6 of the last 7 months. you've had a lot of people who are looking at the banks and looking at the consumer and saying the worst is over, have to be pointing at these numbers. we'll see. >> well, there's also a bill introduced yesterday by harry reid to extend that $8,000 credit. there's lobbying efforts to maybe even expand it beyond just first-time home buyers. and that would be a good thing. i sort of think it's a little bit of cash for clunkers kind of phony stimulus. >> and can the housing market actually find a bottom if you keep pumping in artificial means to prop it up? that's the question as well. coming up neg, a new market leader today that has options traders screaming dow 10,000. should you buy? right after this. xwxwxwxwxwxwxww

scott nations is an options actions contradict tor, and scott, we're talking about procker and gamble, a name you talked to us last week, didn't you? >> that's right. today, p & g had great news when it got an upgrade. p and g has been pretty disappointing this year, but the news today was s pretty good. they're going to go on a market share jihad, which is normally bad news. but earlier this month they said they expected good things for

the top line, which was news, because we've heard so many companies poo-poo the top line and say we're going to do great on the bottom line. p & g is set up to be in really good shape. today we saw a bunch of buyers in the sep 57 1/2 calls. they wanted to buy those back. a month ago they might have said if i get called away at 57 1/2 that's great. today they changed their minds. we also saw buying in october, up side calls, particularly the 60 calls. >> what is your position on p & g? what's your new recommendation? >> the new target out of citigroup is $66 and that makes a lot of sense. just over $70 would get you to a 52-week high and that's probably a pretty good price. i hate being long calls here. it's a implied volatility trade. options are relatively cheap. and let's face it, when the consumer crawls up under the rock and starts to spend a little bit they're not going to

go remodel their kitchen, they're going to spend an extra $2 and buy the good shampoo. >> now i know what you'll be doing with your money, scott. you've got a fine head of hair. >> now "pops and drops." dow chemical. >> ahead after you is q3 earnings. finally, the market is pricing in a profit around 10 cents eps. two consecutive quarterly losses. this trade right here has got to show you the profit. >> pop here, cke restaurants. i haven't seen a hardy's since i was 13 years old. every time i turn around i see a mcdonald's. i like it better. >> pop on anadarko in week.

>> this was the week to be in natural gas. >> a pop here for caterpillar, up 10% this year. >> caterpillar getting benefit from the new york manufacturing, the philly fed. a lot of the surveys showing you there is some construction return. it's a great company, a lean company. when the cycle turns it lsh more profitable. >> pop here for ikea. according to bloomberg, he told business school students he should have bought ikea furniture for his office. john thain having the fjord console in his office. >> with an instruction booklet and a screwdriver. >> pop here for amazon.com. up 7%. >> they got an upgrade this week. here's what you've got to do with the stock. price gap down to 84.41.

you're a buyer here between 84.50 and 85. >> amr was up 30% this week, guys. >> they secured some financing but then they gave revenue guidance today and said it would be down 50%. this is a short covering rally of magnitudes i can't even tell you. if oil continues to go higher, amr will go right back down. right back down. >> drop on the week for ford warner. karen? >> this one has bothered me for a while. >> key bank was too high. last quarter they messed. i think they're likely to miss again. >> pop here for nokia. >> a move from 12 to 16 offer -- off the lows. >> a drop here for our colleague chuck todd. he got a good scolding from health and human services after he sneezed incorrectly during a

briefing. she showed todd how to properly sneeze into his elbow and asked the crowd to get the man some hand sanitizer. >> what happens? what's left to hide? >> you don't shake hands with your elbow. >> right. >> stay in the house, i guess. >> coming up, the final trade. >> i'm karen finerman. >> i'm tim sea miles an hour. >> this is your "fast money trade school." >> before you start stuffing cash under the mattress, consider some safe alternatives. >> from municipal bonds to cds. >> to money market mutual funds. >> there's ways to get returns with minimal risks. >> so think outside of the stocks. >> and make your money work for you. announcer: what are you waiting for?

all around the world, men with erectile dysfunction have asked their doctors about cialis. ask your doctor if a cialis option is right for you because in addition to 36-hour cialis, there's another dosing option: cialis for daily use, a low-dose tablet you take every day so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. man: tell your doctor about your medical condition and all medications and ask if you're healthy enough for sexual activity. don't take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. don't drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed back ache or muscle ache. to avoid long term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than 4 hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision... stop taking cialis and call your doctor right away. announcer: 36-hour cialis or... cialis for daily use.

so when the moment is right, you can be ready.

tonight miss a special

suze orman tomorrow night. final trade here, tim. >> alcoa, great run. time to get out. >> short anf. >> time to sell some more re. >> get short caterpillar. >> coming up next, "options action."