the dollar strength pressuring gold and oilg prices and the stocks, the minors as well as the energy company. there's a sense that a lot of investors are waiting, a couple of things happening this week. the fed decision, whether or not they'll make any comments about easing some of this stimulus that they put into the system. also what the g-20 has to say about financial regulatory reform at the end of the week. we're approaching the part of the cycle where you have warnings start to come out. that will start around october 1st or so. there's a little bit of a sense of waiting for more news to come out in today's session. however, we did get big news on dell computer buying rowe systems for $30 a share. one of the most active stocks today. on a percentage basis, one of the biggest gainers. aig is active. a lot of news about this stock today. first of all, the gao issuing a report saying there are questions whether or not the company can restructure itself and repay the government. it's on the hook to the government for about $100

million plus in loans and guarantees, et cetera. the gao report did say certain businesses are stabilizing. aig, its former chairman is actually centering a restructure plan to the house oversight committee, one that would reduce the government's stake in the firm from 80% to 20%. and also as the government reduced the interest rates, asking aig to pay on the loans issued to aig. fertilizers are active as well. we had negative comments coming out of caterpillar. fertilizer, pressure after potash said the third quarter is at the low of expectations. let's get a check on the nasdaq. >> we've been in a tight range. we have held on to more strengths than anywhere else. biofarm is strong, tech strong. google, 52-week high. pulled back a tiny bit from the high of $498 and change.

up 1.2%. dell, we talked about it today. $30 a share. getting into i.t. services. down 4.4%. closer to some of its lower levels. ebay down 0.9%. i want to touch on yahoo! real quick. it has to do with ebay and google. ebay use will google and not yahoo! for its search ads. that under pressure today. underlying tech seeing a lot of strength. net app up 3.9%. molex, 5.6%. they raised their guidance. novellus is up. mr. hartman has given me so many names today, i think he needs his own show today. celgene is up. and by ohgen idec is up.

charles schwab is up. let's go down to bertha. i'm sure you're going to touch on mr. king dollar. >> that's right. traders are saying that dollar traders were covering a bit of their shorts. their bets to the down side on the dollar today. that put pressure across the commodities, when we saw asia, and europe trade lower, that really set the signal on oil. coming into this week we saw an increase over the past week of net longs. a lot of folks seem to be cashing out on that when it came to crude. we have the october futures contract going off of the books tomorrow. as you look out ahead of the curve, you want to look a little bit hor at the november contract. trading slightly higher. we'll watch that pairing tomorrow when there are likely to see a bit of volatility. the other issue that's underpinning this downward spiral or downward selling pressure, news out of china that some demand is softening.

china's major refiners saying there's not as much demand for diesel. and the oil demand in august was down nearly 5.5%. we saw heavy selling today across the products as well. natural gas giving up more than half of its gains from last week. but gold, despite the downward pressure today, managing to stay above $1,000 an ounce. maria, it's been at that level, closing at that level now for seven straight sessions. back to you. >> real interesting, bertha. thanks very much. berttha coombs, washington commodities today. the market down 36 on the dow jones industrial average. brian with open heimer and company. gentlemen, nice to have you on the program. we've got a lot happening in new york today. you can see by the traffic outside. but the u.n. general assembly, world leaders coming to new york city to discuss a whole host of items. as it relates to the economy, what would you like to hear?

>> i think the world has said, you've used up your monetary and fiscal and regulatory stimulus in the united states, what are you going to do next. they don't like the fact that we're doing so much pr. they want to encourage real people to hire others to go back to work. >> everybody's talking about an international integrated approach as it relates to solutions for the global economy. will we get that? >> that's still a long ways off, maria. especially considering all the changes that we've seen in monetary policy around the world. i think that's a very preliminary thought. especially for the agenda this particular week. >> the world leaders should be given credit. this could have been a whole lot worse. we don't know what didn't happen. they've been in communication, they share information, they're cooperating. we should thank them for that. >> what's more important, clark, in the near term for the market? is it the g-20 or is it the fed meeting? we know the fed's not going to move right now. but given what's happening with the dollar and the emphasis in the market that it's certainly taking from the dollar, what's more important? >> i think it's the g-20.

the fed can't move. the worry the rest of the world is going to think we're going to act like japan. are we going to beat japan or give a reason for everybody to go back to work and take advantage of the dysfunctional of the aspect of the economy. >> you've been looking at the international landscape as far as investing ideas. brian, you've been right on this as well, in terms of where this market heads right now. let me get both of your ideas in terms of investing this this environment. brian, you wanted to put money to work. the market has risen. would you still put money to work after the move we've seen? >> i would. this is the most reluctant bull market in the 20 years i've been in the business. people just do not want to believe it. but we still see fundamental leadership in technologies, industrials, in health care. we think health care is for nationalization. great buy for valuation in cash. think about the u.s. economy and where the strong exports are coming from. it's tech and industrials. we still think those areas will

be leadership coming out of this. >> he was early, he was right. i think the big shift now is all the things that were fixed. they were financed, financed and refinanced. real engineers replace financial enginee engineers. i think it's a great time if you're willing to go in and take advantage of this and not worry about the short-term price fluctuations. >> where would you go in? what do you like best? >> general motors is the metaphor of what happened when it didn't happen. i think there's a trend for lighter, stronger, faster and smarter. look at the attributes to fashion to airplanes and cars, you get fuel efficiency and greener. everywhere. i think it's an amazing market to buy real things. >> do you worry about the upcoming holiday season and it being slow, impacting the retail sector and other sectors as well if in fact we see this economic recovery stall? >> we do to some degree. but what's really interesting is the whole thing fundamentally that's pushing the consumers,

the nondiscretionary consumptions, commodity costs are down. jobless claims begin to roll over. housing prices are bottoming. so the scenario for the consumer right now, believe it or not, is a lot better now relative to a year ago. so we do think we're going to see some relative improvement on a year-to-year basis in the holiday season. >> where are we getting at the end of the year in terms of the s&p? this is the market that nobody wants to believe in. everybody describing this as a hold your nose and buy market, close your eyes and buy market. it keeps going up, though. >> actually, it was a 52-low, given the fact we do think the fourth quarter will be a strong quarter with new mutual fund companies coming in and participating. >> i think as clinton did with bond markets, reagan did with air traffic controllers, if obama can find a magic catalyst to let us say, right, i go back to work and hire more people and borrow a little more money, it's

not one direct measure. and i hope he achieves it. >> you're looking for a pretty good end of the year? >> as long as it doesn't look like the government's the only answer to every question and spooks everybody. japan had a government stimulus for 20 years and it didn't go anywhere. >> is it get us to the end of the year? we're going to be higher and then just reassess everything, maybe the prospect of higher taxes, inflation creeping in a little bit? >> on inflation, remember, 7 a% of non-farm business expenses in the country are due to wages. we're not going to see wage growth until the end of 2010. therefore, not inflation until late 2010, 2011. but the retail investor has not started to put money back in yet. for instance, over the last several weeks, bond funds are exceeding mutual funds into equity funds. so the retail investor is not there yet. that's in 2010, 2011 event. >> commodities, a buyer? low, below $70. >> i call them all the march of the non-dollar, commodities,

oil, currency, the function of the dollar not working. and the rest of the world plays yes or no. they don't play commodities versus equities. >> maria and i talked about this on the floor before. the baltic dry index, are you guys watching that, down for the seventh straight day? real concerns about what's happening with shipping prices and what it means for global commodity demand. >> the best leading indicators there has been. it says people are not taking advantage of the opportunities. just like the empty boats all over the world. >> that's indicative of the global economy? >> that's right. >> gentlemen, thank you. great to talk with you, as always. >> thank you. >> we've got about 45 minutes before the closing bell sounds on wall street. for the day, market under selling pressure. health care, brian mentioned, and technology on the upside, even with the dow down 36. >> lawmakers in washington have been pushing for performance. now a group of big companies is backing a voluntary plan to do just that. find out what's behind the move and if it will be enough to calm

pay raise in washington. part two of my one-on-one interview with president bill clinton. addressing the deficit. a bigger priority. that's at 4:00 p.m. eastern. here's where the action is on the street today. the heavily traded stocks.

let's get a check on the floor of the new york stock exchange. today's research calls, the latest upgrades and downgrades. celgene upgraded, raising its price tag to $65 from $57. genzyme downgraded, could result in more doctors prescribing generic drugs. specialty chemicals maker cytec industries rising demand for its coats, resins and engineered

materials. maria? >> scott, thanks very much. a set of new guidelines on executive compensation, in order for companies to avoid more regulation from washington. at&t and sisco are volunteering to increase transparency and controversial paid practices. we get more with reggie gupta, and robert denham, the task force on capital compensation. thanks so much for joining us. obviously there's a lot of talk about compensation these days. is that what led you to come up with these guidelines? tell me what you put in place in order to come out with a set of guidelines. >> we started working on this, because of the importance of compensation to companies. compensation is an incredibly important tool that companies use to manage their business. and if companies lose control of the ability to use this tool, they'll be much less effective.

so we had a task force, we met for several months, came out with a report that we think provides intensely practical advice about how to get compensation right. >> reggie, most people would like to see the government out of the compensation setting game. tell me what role washington should have here. >> first of all, this was a group of ceos, shareholders, government experts, investors, who really worked on this together. so i think it gifts you a per sec tiff from all stakeholders. clearly government is also an important stakeholder in this process. we're hoping by coming out with this report, we can incorporate the best practices, and if they're followed, make a significant progress in rebuilding the trust of the american corporations. >> how closely did you work with the compensation czar? the president's compensation czar? >> we did not work with the government in this case. the board is not in the business

of really proposing regulations. we very much worked with the key stakeholders in this process. and they were all represented very heavily in our deliberation. >> it sounds like you have a number of voices that are critical to this process in the mix. and so that's how you came up with the guidelines. can you walk us what those guidelines are and where you think companies should be focused in terms of priorities when developing compensation plans? >> it starts with the proposition that companies need to pay for the right things. they need to have a compensation program that reflects their business strategy, and that drives the business strategy. included in that is paying for performance, paying for performance over meaningful periods of time, so that you're not paying just for short-term -- what looked like success and maybe turns into failure. >> which might actually encourage risk taking. >> and in paying for performance, you adjust the performance for risk. you look at risk adjusted returns. and you pay when the performance

can be reasonably measured. >> one of your priorities, i know, is transparency. tell me about transparency and how it applies here. >> the same as we talked about a great deal, without endorsing specifically pay. we encourage companies to really deal directly with the shareholders in these matters. trans parent as possible. issues are raised, they're appropriately addressed. another notion we have is that controversial pay practices should be avoided, unless really justified. >> so what would your advice be around this issue that we're all talking about recently with andrew hall? and the $100 million pay package that he's supposed to get, who heads fibro at citigroup. what do you do now? the contract's in place. >> i think the best solution in the contracts are written in a way that they don't lead to these kind of situations. i think correcting them after the fact is one of the most difficult things to do. a contract is a contract.

>> and i think it's important that compensation in trading businesses pay attention to the risks they're taking. be risk adjusted. the report's not trying to govern the amount of compensation, it's trying to make sure that companies are getting what they pay for when they compensate people. compensation to the employee is how much you get, but to the company, it's what you're getting for what you pay. >> it's something of a corporate honor system of sorts, isn't it? i mean, adopting these principles voluntarily is a corporate honor system? >> we are not in the business of enforcement of these regulations, but we are encouraging corporations to follow these common-sense tools for the recommendations and benchmark their practices against these standards to see where they can improve, where the gaps are. >> so from your standpoint, what are the common-sense rules? >> the common-sense rules are what bob talked about, linking strategy and risk taking with a

payout, maintaining the transparency, avoiding controversial practices as much as possible, and really encouraging direct dialog between the shareholders and the management and the board on these matters. >> what should be done away with in today's makeup of compensation? we talked about a moment ago, golden parachute. should this be eliminated? >> we identified several areas where compensation is mechanisms that are unrelated to performance. long-term employment arrangements with sizeable -- with large severance. golden parachutes with excessive payouts. option repricing that's not approved by shareholders and not value neutral. and we say that these should be done only in unusual

circumstances when companies have specific justification. they shouldn't just be an everyday occurrence. >> right. do you think if we don't see a change, that the government will make a change, take control of this? >> i think that's the way we're headed. i think unless the organizations take charge of this, and do the right thing, we are liable to go in that direction. >> gentlemen, thanks very much for your time. we so appreciate it. congratulations on the company that have already voluntarily supported your new guidelines. reggie gupta, along with robert denham, co-chair conference board task force on xe tick xef compensation. 30 minutes before the closing bell sounds. technology is pretty strong. intel and nasdaq and dow component, scott, it's actually up on the session. a number of health care companies also on the upside today. >> we have to see if the nasdaq is going to fight it into positive territory and stay there for the remainder of this day. which sectors will take us there. the answers in a moment.

first, a look at bond prices today. the "closing bell" is coming right back. cnbc is first in business worldwide.

with the market down fractionally today, let's take a look at the most widely stocks. financials mostly in selling

pressure. there are a handful trading up, like citigroup. as you can see, ge also fractionally better on the session. oil is down, prices down $2.50 a barrel. health care, one of the winners on the group as a sector. pfizer higher right now. scott, over to you. >> maria, thanks so much. back down here on the floor of the new york stock exchange, getting a little bit more on today's market activity with alan valdez, and gordan charloff at rosen blat securities. thanks for spending time with us. you showed me the tablet there. you've got a lot of sell orders coming in. >> yeah, i see we're better. it indicates to me that even though they've been remarkably resilient so far in the trading session, i don't think they're going to carry them through. >> today the market was down about 90 points or so, now only down about 25. >> every time you go down, they come in and buy these.

we're off 25. they did buy on the dip. >> what's the most important thing you're watching this week? a very big week, with the fed meeting, you have the g-20. which is more important for the near term direction of this stock market? >> you know, a lot of positives you can point to. we're having some ipo activity this week, which is always a good sign. >> "a" activity also? >> "a" activity also. the thing i'm going to be focusing on really is the fed meeting. and really, the language of the decision. because the watch is very tight. the question is, when will that start to loosen, and how skit issue will the market be when they start to pull back on that easy credit. so that could be the turning point when you start seeing people go to the exit. >> what's more important, the g-20, because potentially what could be said about the dollar and how important the dollar has been in getting us to where we are right now, just shy of

10,000 or so. or is it the fed meeting? >> the g-20, as much as try, they can never can get anything out it seems. the fed i think have substantial answers to our exit policy. but we also have housing numbers coming out this week. case schuler, new home sales. >> as we creep later into the year, and we get later and later into the fed meeting, does it become more ultra-important that we start to hear more about exit strategy? right now, okay, we know they can't take the foot off the gas just yet. as we get a little bit later, do we need to hear a little bit more? >> we're wondering that ourselves. as we get closer, it seems like a game of chicken going on here. at some point people are going to start making hard decisions, are we committed, carry this thing right through to the beginning of next year, or have we priced in the moves that we were looking for, and we're going to get out of there. expecting more volatility. expecting a lot more volume. neither has materialized yet.

>> volume today was pretty weak, right? >> yeah. not what we're looking for yet. we're looking for a trend, and also volatility spikes. >> let's talk about commodities. you told me you do watch the baltic dry index, down for seven straight days. this is a gauge of shipping rates, a lot of people think it's an economic leading indicator. could it also be an indicator of global commodities demand if commodities rally that we've seen and gotten it to this point? is it going to last? are you worried that the baltic dry down for seven straight days and what that portends? >> it concerns me about china's numbers, that's for sure. even though they say their exports are doing well, it seems a rather -- i'm not sure about those numbers coming out of china. as far as oil goes, i think we're trading in a range. i think it's more dollar related than anything else. you'll see it back up to $75. >> give me a year-end target.

s&p, al, first? >> i think we're going to get to 11,000. >> i'm going the other way. >> the other way? >> yeah. >> where are you going? >> i think the s&p is more kretly priced. 900 level. i think we're going to see a little bit of a sell-off here as we go towards the end of the year. sorry, al. >> that's fine. >> great having you today. oh, gordon, you, too. we'll see you. maria, what do we have, about half an hour to go before we close up this monday on wall street? the nasdaq is still in positive territory and dow off the lows throughout the day, down about 40 points or so. >> china making the transition from an export-based economy to a consumer-led one. can china's economic recovery continue if they're not spending continue if they're not spending any money.

welcome back to the floor of the new york stock exchange. we have about 25 minutes to go on this monday on wall street. let's take a look at where the major averages are shaping up right now. the dow jones industrial average off of its worst levels of the day. down still about 49 points. energy and material stocks dragged today, exxon and mobil, alcoa weaker today. mcdonald's weaker today as well.

there has been money moving into the technology space at cisco among the widely held technology names to the upside. money moving into the biotechs today. celgene was up 5% or so. that has helped that space. the overall nasdaq staying positive. the s&p 500 is down just a touch today as well. maria? >> scott, china's economic recovery continues to gain momentum. with the government forecasting 8% growth by the end of this year. it's run by beijing's stimulus package. how much of the recovery is sustainable given that exports have not picked up. consumers aren't really spending all that. joining me to talk about that is the manager. gentlemen, nice to have you on the program. >> thank you. >> you know, china's recovery is not going to lift the rest of the world out of a recovery,

because it's gdp of $3 trillion jers us the u.s. $13 trillion, and it's small. tell me how important it is to watch china for starters. then i want to ask you about the progress in terms of exports to consumer recovery. steve, what do you think? >> we look at china a lot as the driver for global growth. they do have a big impact on growth. what we were a little concerned about recently is some of the fast food numbers. mcdonald's reported, they have a small business but it's growing dramatically in china. sales are uncharacteristically cheap, or a little bit low right now. the interesting thing is the sales that are declining for them in china are in the industrial areas where there may be layoffs going on due to their export economy. we're a little bit concerned about that. on the other hand, the government's spending $600 billion and they've got another $1 trillion behind it if they need it to grow, the industrial base in the next year. we're in the teeter-tottering effect where they can keep it going. i don't know about consumer spending. i think it's weakening.

>> i know you were in china recently, joe, and do you see this transitionition taking place? >> i absolutely do see the transition taking place. i'm going to beijing, shanghai, and there is tremendous consumer spending going on there. i personally believe that shanghai is running at somewhere between 10% and 12% gdp growth. i heard there are 6,000 infrastructure projects there. china certainly has the reserves to continue to stimulate the economy. so i certainly think that it's sustainable. number two is, we're staying with stocks that we follow, still seeing tremendous growth, 50%, 80% year over year net earnings growth. i certainly believe it's sustainable. i think the problem is just down south, which is still 100 million people. >> as steve was saying, mcdonald's as a gauge, and people are not -- is it just that they're not spending on food? what are they spending money on that you see? >> i see a lot of clothing. i see a lot of clothing, retailers doing quite well.

i see a lot of car part suppliers that are doing quite well year over year, which is a consumer product. they're buying the automobile. i certainly can't speak for mcdonald's. but the ones we're following are doing quite well. >> steve, where is the growth in spending, if anywhere? do you agree with clothing and autos for starters? >> i'm not sure i agree with clothing. we saw some companies where their orders going forward were much weaker than expected. they're still positive, but growth is slowing. you really have to worry about, is the consumer going to spend. as long as the government is build infrastructure projects, maybe it doesn't matter at all. but i would expect to see gdp growth in china for the next three or four months, that will spook investors. i think the chinese markets will come down a little bit in the near term, affecting the u.s. markets. you're off to the races again next year. because as joe indicated, and i agree with him, that the government's going to spend a lot of money on infrastructure.

>> how important is this transition from an export-led economy to a consumer-led economy? >> it's critical. i think it's critical for the chinese economy to be less reliant upon the u.s., europe, et cetera. i think they felt the pain and they're going to learn from it. they're already going through the process of making their economy more efficient. they're closing down factories. they are privatizing state-owned enterprises. they're focusing on this transition. >> but i mean, i was in china and the air quality, the water quality is so bad. are they really making a dent in some of this stuff? i know they talk about it a lot. but do they really recognize these issues as major problems? >> we follow a company trading on the nasdaq, rino, doubling more than year over year. it's a great business to be in, absolutely they are. >> i would add, the water problem, we had lunch with the prime minister of thailand today, their economy seems to be doing better.

industrial utilizations picking up as the export market's going. if you ask them what they're going to stimulate in their economy for the next couple years in the infrastructure projects, it's water. they want to improve their water so they can continue to drive the export markets which primarily goes to china. water, i think a lot of money will go into that. >> can american companies get a piece of that? a lot of companies want to do business in china, but they either have to go side by side with the government or have a small stake in the profitability. >> i think it's very difficult. i think they're trying really hard in china to only deal with domestic firms. if you're getting into china this late in the game as a u.s. company, good luck. >> how do i invest in the back drop in terms of china? what are you doing? why do you watch china so much and how does it steer your investments? >> one of the names we talked about the last time i was on your show, rig, it's up about ten points we talked about. a deep water driller.

if china does come back, they're investing in infrastructure, it stimulates the economy, people buy cars, oil demand is going to go up. they're a big buyer of oil on a rate of change basis. do you want to own certain global commodities, we think whale is one. and yahoo!. a couple points lower. we think it has a significant upside. they have exposure to china. so i think that's another one. mcdonald's is more a u.s.-based company but a little bit of improvement next year. and the china business will drive the stock higher. >> as the transition takes longer than people think, you're still talking about $1.3 billion, and you're going to try to get a piece of that, and you want to look for investments that are actually participatinp. >> i think joe invested in a lot of companies that directly invest more. >> what investors don't realize in america is there are a number of chinese listed companies that don't get exposure. almost too much supply of chinese companies, not enough demand for the securities.

we follow rino, which i just talked about, the environmental space, the great space to be in. china plastics, which we own. one car for every 100 people in china, 76 cars for every 100 people in america. tons of upside potential there. i think that's a great stock to buy as well. >> gentlemen, great to have you on the program. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> we've got about 20 minutes before the closing bell sounds. the dow is down about 46 points. nasdaq positive. money moving into health care and technology. >> maria, gold's lower today. oil lower today. the dollar higher for the third straight day. what does that say about the outlook for stocks? after the bell, an economic reality check with advisers chairman martin feldstein. he'll talk about whether or not we're seeing real signs of recovery. what does the inflation picture look like.

welcome back. we go under the radar right now. some of the movers.

nektar therapeutics, two experimental drugs that could be worth $1.1 billion. drug developer insight said its experimental skin disease in the mid-stage trial. it reduces scaling and redness. odyssey agreed to be agird for $65 a share. up $5 a share from the original offer. the stock is up better than 3%. scott? >> maria, it is that time. that time is the "fast money" "final call." the dollar higher for the third straight day. what does this mean for stocks, commodities, and of course, emerging markets? here with the answer is tim seymour, a partner there, and also a "fast money" trader. good to see you. >> thank you, scott. >> dominating talk of late, and it's stronger and commodities are weaker. >> yeah. i think we started on the quiet thursday afternoon, we started

to see the dollar put in some lows around $76.20, $30 on the dixie. i think there is a trade to the strong side with will certainly have a big impact on resources, commodities, some of the fx currencies are that are commodity related, emerging markets. i would say watch this trade. people are talking about the g-20. they are talking about some need between industrialized and developing nations to find some balance between expecting china to actually realistically do what they can on the domestic front and with the u.s. economy that is saving more. >> when you say short term, how long is this going to last? where we see the dollar strengthen a little bit? >> i think there's a lot of guys that are on the side of the dollar weak trade, and i think people are cautious going into this week. i think we're talking towards the end of the week as far as this rally can truly go, unless we get a policy change. i think that would be a dramatic surprise for markets, which would tend to move us down.

but i think the fomc will, i would be amazed if they tell us more than 0 interest rate policy and the economy is a stabilized form over the last few weeks. i think the g-20 will try to send a message that things are different. but that in the near term there's little they can do. >> let's say i believe in your scenario, the dollar is a short trend to the upside. what do i invest in? >> the resource plays that have been most exposed to the weaker dollar certainly have been gold over the last few weeks. be careful, because the miners who are trading at times during historical around 20 times, i think also are placed where they buy back their hedges. i think newmont and others have filed self-registrations. there could be stock coming on the market there. i think gold combined with the dollar, valuations combined with the dollar, gold is very vulnerable. freeport and some of the copper

names should be very vulnerable and i think are high momentum plays actually are trading very well. the places to watch, though, are the emerging markets that have the most commodity exposed economies that would be russia, that would be brazil to some extent. that would certainly be south africa. those are places. and then the fx currencies look at the australian, you know, the aussie, the canadian dollar, some of those other places i would be most wary. >> tell me what you like. what would you put your money into right now? >> one thing that's notable in the midst of this, a few of these economies are doing very well. brazil is one of them. we're looking at a tremendous deal calendar over the next few weeks in brazil. today sandara stating they're spinning out their brazilian entities. if you look at a number of the plays in the banking sector and brazil, which is still obviously your emerging markets. >> let's get away from emerging

markets, because i don't have that much time. what sectors do you like in this market? >> i still think you're going to see a very good run in some of the commodity plays. i think if you look at, say, aluminum stocks, we've had a tremendous run. but you're starting to see the supply balance come back in favor. we're actually getting real sign of stainless steel demand in china, and some of the other components that will make this trade run. i think you've got, you know, despite an announcement on friday that potash is in a profit warning mode, that the ag plays are one part of this complex that have not done that well and you're going into the second half of the year you'll see seasonally strength there. it's a great chance to buy this weakness. a warning on a friday afternoon is a strange time for these guys to get it. you're getting exaggerated weakness throughout the day. >> all right. tim, thanks. catch you soon, man, all right? >> thanks. the top-ranked tech analyst breaks down the dell deal and tells you what names could be next on their buy list.

the last five go trading, the globe ahead of the g-20 summit. where you should place your money overseas. melissa and the traders are live at 5:00. and there are about ten minutes or so left in this trading day on this monday. the dow jones industrial average still down about 60. the nasdaq is in positive territory. money moving into tech, biotech especially. >> things have worsened when you just look at the dow. you have a number of financials under pressure. bank of america down better than 2%. boeing down about a half a percent. walmart is up today. that has been weakening recently, but it's about 1.5% today. >> mcdonald's weak today as well. coca-cola weak today as well. >> real investment trusts to go public this week. saying something about the health of the real estate market. we'll take a look at the sustainability of that. back in a moment.

welcome back. this week could be the busiest week in two years for ipos, with eight offerings on deck.

real investment trusts are playing a big part of that. >> maria, more signs of commercial real estate under stress. moody's real commercial property price index fell 5.1% in july from the month before, and that may be precisely why investors want to get in now. witness three new ipos this week. apollo, and barclays symbol, ari plans to invest in commercial real estate securities and corporate debt. foursquare capital plans to invest in commercial and residential mbs. mortgage loans and asset-backed securities. colony financial, managed by b of a merrill, morgan stanley and ubs, planning on commercial mortgages and real estate, looking to raise $1.4 billion in ipos. >> there's a lot of money standing on the sidelines. tons of money flooded in last week. you can look at the major reits in the country and they've done

essentially rounds of new money raising, which will help them defer some of their costs. >> up 84% in the last six months. in that same time, 60 different reits have raised more than $16 billion in new equity, as for the decline in commercial real estate value reits can only take on 50% debt of their investments so they're not as hard hit by the declines. industry folks tell me these reits are looking to find the cheap distressed properties, and make the killing in the long term. the question is, with prices down already and so many getting in, are all the good deals gone by now. for more, go to the blog realtycheck.cnbc.com. >> thank you, diana. a short break and then the closing countdown on the other side of that. president clinton discusses with maria what progress can be made towards improving health care around the world. cn cnbc, first in business worldwide.

welcome back to the closing countdown. we get ready to close up this monday on wall street. dow jones industrial average off by about 45 points or so. the dollar stronger for the third straight day. that really played a huge role today as energy stocks,

commodities among the weakest issues today. alcoa down better than 1%. exxon mobil was also a drag today. the ring is ringing behind me and then you'll see maria bartiromo. >> it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody, welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo. on the floor of the new york stock exchange. stocks pulling back today as the dollar gained strength and concerns over the sustainability of the market's six-month rally rises. nasdaq finished in the plaque. it remains the best performer in 2009. that stronger dollar also took a bite out of commodities. oil prices below $70 a barrel. gold remained above $1,000. the precious metals falling for the third day in a row, dipping below $1,000 an ounce for the first time in a week at the close. take a look at how we finished the day. the dow jones industrial average on the down side by 41 points. financials mostly the issue there, as well as a handful of

oil. price of oil lower. nasdaq higher by about five points. and the s&p 500 tonight gave up 3.5 points. mary? >> maria, mixed monday for the markets as we saw techs. nasdaq moving higher. different for the dow and s&p. they were under pressure throughout most of the day. investors basically waiting news of the two-day meeting later this week for the fed. specifically, they're looking for any kind of coordinated action on financial regulatory reform. what we saw today is the strength in the u.s. dollar. that helped to stop some of the commodities, mentioning oil and gold and in turn this push pret ur on commodity stocks. dell saying it's going to be acquiring perot systems. $3.9 billion, or $30 a share on a percentage basis. it was the biggest gainer here at the big board and one of the