within the last hour. commodities very much in focus. >> and it's worked for the last several months. higher oil prices and gold. gold is up around 13 bucks at $1,017 an ounce. it's definitely led the markets higher today along with a number of other sectors, including financials. >> aig, one of them. what's going on? what's fuelling this rally? >> aig continued the run we saw yesterday. they're having a nice gain today, better than 5%. government watchdog group say it's showing signs of stabilization. citigroup reducing to less than 5%. and bank of america raises it price target to $5. >> and maybe about four years ago, was pretty critical. >> the stocks were running on

fumes or something like that, i think those were the words because the financials had such a nice run, but those stocks i mentioned are getting a lift today. >> carnival cruises doing well today. >> it's also given a lift to the whole cruise sector. carnival, then royal caribbean. those stocks are higher. a few retailers having a go of it today. i want to talk about lowe's because they reaffirmed their '09 outlook, but the 2010 was at the very low end of the prior range. 124 to 134. the street was talking about 134, so you see the low end of the range. that's why lowe's is to the downside. carmax, cash for clunkers drove a lot of traffic there. then macy's got an upgrade as well. >> always a pleasure to see you. thank you so much. we want to head uptown to the

nasdaq where brian shactman is standing by. >> we're up just a smi. over 500. that's another fresh high. see if we can hold that level. palm, another up 0.75%. a lot of rumors about nokia. amazon, another strength. want to focus on the chips and i have a vu examples. applied materials, rambus. on the flip side, dell of course made huge news with the ak sigs of perot.

deutsche bank reiterated a buy with a price target of 22, but it's more because they raised their pc sales estimate. also, quickly, some big name laggards today. apple down, cisco down 1.2%. i want to touch on gymboree they're up. every day at these levels, you'll see a lot of analysts restate their highs. bull market still in effect. >> right. thank you very much. now, economists are expecting no change in monetary policy as the fed begins their meeting in washington. one concern now, the weakening dollar. it's trading at a one-year low against the euro. gold prices up today to 1016.

what does the fed have to do to prop up the greenback? let's ask robert, chief monetary economist for cumberland advisers and our very own in-house genious, steve liesman. >> you're buttering him up. >> i am. i'll go to you right off. the fed doesn't care one whip about the dollar, do they? >> i don't think that's right, larry. i think they do care about the dollar. i don't think they care to make it the end of their policy or the goal of their policy. i think what they have said is that they will strengthen the economy and let the dollar follow. i don't think they knew if they would let it follow. i would point out that it seems to me that the strok market would want a weaker dollar, but they keep rallying. >> that's true. bob, i would ask you, the

biggest question at this meeting is whether the fed is going to stop buying mortgage-backed securities. do you think they're going to continue doing that and should they? >> that's a good question. the first question is whether they're going to change the pace of acquisitions to get to the 1.25 trillion they've targeted by december. they account for about 80% of the market now, so they're going to have a hard time pulling back from it and i think you'll see a lot of discussion about that and maybe there will be some hints in the statement about it, too. >> well, bob, i'll come back to you because i know you're like steve. he's really soft on the importance of the dollar. is the fed poised to make the same mistake they made earlier in this decade? let it go down, the housing bubble was one casualty. are we poised to make the same

mistake because they don't really give a hoot about the dollar? >> steve is a very wise person. i think they do give a hoot about the dollar, but as he said, they're not going to base their policy on it right now. what's going to take care of the dollar is that we are not going to have a big outburst of inflation like so many people assume and as soon as that starts becoming clear to the market -- >> how do you know that? >> they are -- >> it's the same rhetoric from the fed. >> they are not creating excess money given the circumstances. >> i'm just challenging with all great respect. >> but larry, what about the ten-year and treasury, which is so much lower now relative to if they were inflations out there, you can believe the gold market, which is much, much smaller than the bond market, and you wouldn't be going with both feet in. >> you know my answer.

sell the bond. it's the biggest short out there. i agri with my friend, jim cramer. >> the fed's balance sheet is still not as large as it was in december. there has not been excess money creation in these last few months. that's the reason i believe that we're going to get out of this without inflation. >> bob, what would you like to see the fed do today? >> stick with its interest rate policy and give us that first paragraph will be more positive because everything's looking up right now. and give us some rhetoric to let us know they are thinking about the end game. >> what about mortgage-backed securities? >> if they're going to have to buy something to keep the money supply growing at a certain rate, they might as well be being mortgage-backed securities because that's an area in the market that needs -- >> i have to ask you a question. >> let's monotize all the debt. that's what the foreign exchange

market is worried about. robert, i am just staggered by all this soft money talk i'm hearing this morning. i go to you, bob, and ask where's the fed's exit strategy? >> i think that fed is finally going to find itself in a real bind. while bob is right, the portfolio's a little smaller than at the peak. the composition is much different now and it's really starting to load up on long-term assets, both mortgage-backed securities and long-term treasuries and selling those is a part of an exit strategy is going to generate capital losses for the federal reserve and that's going to show up on the balance sheet. they're going to have a big impact on interest rates. i think the other thing that it's going to be real critical is to get what the market is going to do the minute they drop the language about maintaining interest rates at a low level

for considerable period of time. i think it's going to be -- i think we see a potential big jump in rates at that time as markets go to the new quib. >> we have to go to hampton pearson who has breaking news. >> we are awaiting the s.e.c. chairman testifying before the house committee. basically about the white house and treasury plan to regulate the $450 trillion private dreftives market. the chairman believe it is plan can be strengthened in a couple of ways. she plans to tell the committee that swaps need to be regulated, congress needs to give the authorities to enforce and defraud authority. she also says that the treasury proposal can be enhanced to prevent the exclusions of foreign currency swaps from being used by participant to

avoid regulation. and she and the chair are on the same page on that. we will keep you informed. >> thank you so much. more on the weak dollar when we come back and specifically, how can you position your portfolio to make money right now. and the aflcio is holding a rally and we'll talk with the president, richard trumka, and his approach to regulate wall street. xwxwxwxwxwxwxwxwxwxwxwxww

we're seeing a little recovery here with the dow up 32 points. as it marches toward 10,000, there are still a few clouds. one is the weak dollar. will it derail the stock rally and more importantly, how could you be playing it? we want to ask larry adams and our bear. larry, what do you think as we approach this key level on the dow? we're seeing this increasing weakness on the dollar. what does that signal about the

rally? >> i think it is supportive, at least in the near term, for certain sectors. for example, technology, energy, materials, where they get more than 50% of their revenues overseas. i think it's very positive for those. >> so you're anticipating better growth on an international level because the weak dollar, larry? >> i do. and because growth over seas has been better and led the u.s. in this cycle. >> peter, i know you disagree on this one. >> well, the dollar's weakening because asset inflation is unofficial government policy. we saw that after the tech bubble and we're seeing it now. we're depreciating our way to prosperity. the only way to protect yourself under that scenario is taking part in the trade. find hard assets and producers of these commodities and staying away from x-dollar assets.

>> peter, i needed you last segment on monetary policy, but this segment, isn't larry adams right, in the short run, this play is great for the international leading sectors? >> yes, if you are producing most of your goods, i'm sorry, selling most of your goods overseas, you are going to benefit. at some point, we're going to reach a moment in time when foreigners will say, do i want to be investing in the u.s. market. that time will come. >> when will that time come? that's what everybody -- continues to increase. at some point, our bankers are going to demand it. at what point does this catch up to us and how would an investor react to that. >> that's the $64,000 question and i can't even begin to try to answer when that is going to be. we have to look at certain

prices of some of these assets and ask why. the previous segment, larry, you talked about gold. gold is near record highs. not because it's a shiny, attractive thing to own, it's because people are worried about something. it's real money. we have to look at this rally in the stock market in terms of other currencies. in terms of gold, to get a full perspective on whether this is real or the illusion of prosperity. >> larry -- >> one thing i did want to add is that this tail wind for the equity market is going forward. when you look at the dollar, year over year, it's flat. as we go into the first quarter, second quarter, the dollar will now be down and that will be supportive. >> larry, can i ask you about another thing that interesting

me? the possibility of a barn-burner of a recovery. we saw the leading indicators yesterday up again five straight months. jimmy grant's article, he's not usually a big bull. including profits. can't that carry stocks up? >> again, we're not looking for a robust recovery. in a historical context, it will be well below what you historically see. we're looking for growth next year around 3 .5%. the technologies, the industrials, media companies, they're levered to global growth. >> peter, easy money in the short run. what about the possibility of i don't know, 6% v-shaped recovery? i'm talking short run, old buddy, just because of the easy money aspects. sometimes inflation plays tricks

on you. >> it's very possible in the third and fourth quarter. asset in inflation is the main goal. we're going to get a recovery as we're seeing a reversion to the mean. >> we've got to leave it there, gentleman. thank you so much. >> thanks, trish. coming up, watch out wall street. the nation's largest union has a warning for you. plus, what's in store for energy prices as we say good-bye to summer? we'll find out. and take a look at the markets. on crude oil, one year ago today, oil prices soaring 16 bucks in just one day.

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welcome back to "the call." we are breaking news from the fdic on the issue of whether or not it will borrow from the banks to replenish its rescue fund. it's an option, but not being given serious consideration. the spokesman saying the ultimate determination will be made next week at there are many options. he would not tip his hand as to which way they were leaning on this, but did say that this while this is an option, it is not being given serious consideration. we did talk to some banks that would like the idea because they could spread out the cost over time, but as far as the fdic is concerned, this is not one of the options. melissa? >> they're going to borrow from treasury. we know it.

>> kind of the blind lead tg blind. >> no. at least the banks get paid. they would get paid. >> the government borrows from the private banks. i like it very much. >> steve, you guy are crazy. >> i think it's an interesting issue. the only question is how they pay and i think taxpayers will also pay here. >> it is taxpayers that are paying because the fdic is going to pay interest, where does that come from? >> it would come from the banks. >> the economy grows. look, you've got this positive curve and zero interest rate, but if the banks grow, then everybody's going to be paid off and we'll live happily ever after. i bet sheila bair's taking a close look at this. >> but steve said they're not.

>> it's on the table. >> but it sounds like they're tamping down this story as being the leading option. there are problems with going to the treasury aborrowing. >> what's the problem with this plan? >> i don't know what the problem is this plan is. it looked like a winner for the banks. >> and the taxpayers. and the taxpayers. this is outside the box, unconventional thinking. it's a brilliant, clever, new-thinking idea. this is creative capitalism at its best. >> it's hard to answer why this is not seen as leading to other solutions. but we know sheila bair's talked a lot about replenishing this fund. >> we're going take a quick break. >> outside the box thinking.

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welcome back. want to get you caught up on things here. we are up now 31. we've almost regained what we had lost just moments ago. you can see in that chart there how we started the day pretty high. lost a little ground. we are climbing upwards. s&p 500 also trading higher.

let's look at tech. at the nasdaq, green arrows there as well. 2144 the latest level. melissa? it was a year ago today that oil shot up 16 bucks a barrel in one day, trading at 120 bucks a barrel, but it soon sold off. you can see now oil is trading up $1.61, but a lot of people question the fundamentals supporting that latest run. will demand really return? let's ask independent oil trader and director of market research at tradition energy. on one hand, the saudis say they are seeing demand return from asia that they think china's going to be out there. more at the end of the year, it's going to support prices because not a lot of people think -- at the same time, the iea saying yesterday, no, demand

from asia's not going to be what it is this winter. >> melissa, i think that your first point is right, we're not going to -- actually, i do think the demand from asia is coming back. maybe not this winter, but certainly, there are signs that chinese continue with their stimulus package and indian demand is going to be picking up and i think you're going to see coming out of the wintertime, a much better situation for crude prices going higher. but the winter is really going to be a stumbling block. >> oil is very much a function of the global economy. we are in a situation where few would dispute we are in the the recovery process. as we get closer to a full recovery, one would have to think oil would tread higher with that. however, you've got a situation like the weak dollar. how much is that also contributing to this? in other words, how much is just a fundamental change and a result of the dollar.

>> the idea with global growth in china and so forth, very much is just an imptous for more investment in oil and asset class. i've been an oil trader for 25 years and now instead of looking to cracks and spreads, i really concentrate on the dollar. in that regard, the dollar has really described what oil has been doing the last year, particularly, the last couple of months and will continue forward. >> fundamentals do not support the price of oil here. are you saying demand is going to return from asia sometime in the future? that's not a strong argument. >> no. i've been bearish for a long time and think oil should be trading below $65 a barrel. dan is right that the ties to the dollar has been very strong and as long as that continues, then that will provide the

future direction for oil prices. i will say that the analysts i speak to are really starting to think the dollar rally, or the euro rally is looking overdone, particularly at the end of the third quarter. we could start to see a pullback in the strength of the euro. >> addison, are you selling? >> i'm a broker. >> would you advise? >> i'll take a stand, melissa, because i'm a trader and i'm sell right now. the dollar looks to me to be begin extremely overdone. i'm going to go opposite from everybody else and say we're going to see a technical rally and i'm looking for oil to give us a 50-handle. >> when? >> not far and coming. a couple of weeks ago.

what you'll find is you'll have people looking to buy the different oil and then a downdraft. >> you got a target for us? >> yeah, i think the upside is very, very limited here. i think $75 seems to be a very hard ceiling at the moment. i'm with dan. it's hard for me to see it getti getting too far down in the 50s, particularly if weather doesn't cooperate. $50, a $50 handle. >> what happens if you're a long-term investor. what if i'm looking over the next ten years? how do i approach oil overall in keeping diversification there, to the next ten years? >> the one thing i would advise, every time i come on, i advise them to stay away from the etfs.

if you believe oil is going up or down, if you're right, you'll make less in the etfs than futures. if you want to play stocks that are correlated to the price of oil, that's the way you should go. >> larry kudlow is crying next to me because he does not think this decline the over. is there anything fundamental that make you think the decline in the dollar is bottom something. >> no. >> let him answer. you can hear larry screaming. >> larry, i agree with you. >> there's a burn-burner of recovery. of american recovery, international recovery. trish regan had the story right in her very first question and you guys have spent the next 25 minutes dodging trish, who had the story right. >> in the short term. >> what is that, ten minutes? >> no. over the next three, four,

weeks, i think you'll see a significant pullback. we're overextended and it's going to take some of the team out of commodities. >> the theme of the markets over the last two years has been dislocations. the difference, you've got to let that inform your trading. if not, you're making a mistake. >> thank you. >> which is brought oil down. that is coming to an end. >> oh, my goodness. >> oh, my goodness. we've got to run. up next, the afl-cio issuing a warning to wall street that's it's time for aggressive financial reform. richard trumka will speak live outside the new york stock exchange in about 20 minutes, but first, he's going to join us live on "the call." you know why? because we're cnbc and we're first in business worldwide.

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check out a long-term charge. finra has fined ubs and deutsche bank in connection with the ipo. the restitution will contist of the difference between the $17 ipo price and the lower price of vonage stock at the time customers learned they had been granted shares. you can see the -- >> bought at 12, it's not. >> that was at 12. so that's not good. some lawmakers are calling for strict reform, but those on

the hill are not the only ones demanding change. richard trumka joins us in a first ahead of his speech from outside the new york stock exchange later on. thank you so much for joining us. give me one specific change to regulation you'd like to see happen. >> one thing, a consumer protection agency that would regulate banks and nonbanks. that's been spread around over four agencies. it's been a habit to them. they haven't been taking care of consumers. that's one important part of regulation because these guys on wall street sure haven't gotten the message. nothing's changed for them. >> mr. trumka, i'm going to try to do something to gain common ground with you. we're usually regarded as the investment network, in an interview over the weekend, you

said capitalism wasn't delivering the goods for labor. labor people are part of the investor class. don't you have an incentive to have a healthy business with healthy profits for stocks as well as labor? >> oh, yeah. >> labor and capital working together, sir? >> absolutely, and that's what we'd like to do, but we took a trillion-dollar hit because these guys. they walked away with billions in wages, we walked away with losses. we walked away with 2 trillion in debt. they've got to come to their senses. they're right back at it. more bonuses. we want to see real regulation of the financial economy. we want to see a financial transaction tax that converts short termism to the real economy and long-termism. >> you said you want to change the way you do business as a

union. >> absolutely. >> how? >> first of all, we're dwoing going to reach out to young people and we're going to try to change our model to fit their needs rather than trying to pigeon hold the way they make a living. the second thing, we'll reach out to employers that want to work with us and cooperate rate with us. >> i agree with you. some bankers made a lot of dumb mistakes -- >> a lot? nearly all of them. >> set a reserve made a lot of the dumb mistakes. a lot of policies insisted on throwing mortgages at people who couldn't afford them. >> wait a second. >> that can't help anybody. >> wait one second. predatory lending didn't come from the federal government.

it came from wall street -- >> no incomes and -- >> let's have a real discussion some time. >> i'm just saying there's so much blame to go around. >> of course there is. >> the question now, how do we fix the system without crippling the source of credit, the banks. >> you done now? >> yes, sir, i am. >> there is a lot of blame to go around. that's why we need to reregulate and need a consumer protection agency so we don't continue on with the short-termism. there's a will the of blame to go around and the biggest blame starts here on wall street. >> before you go, i want to ask you about health care. you said you're going to stand with the president as long as he stands by the public option. seems that's not the case right now. how do you feel about that? >> i don't think you're right. the public option's on the

table. in order to break the insurance company's strange l hold, you have to have a public option. if we get a public option, we'll lower premiums by 25 to 30%. we won't settle for less. >> i understand you're shooting for that, but do you think the president is still in your camp? >> absolutely. >> i just wanted to say, i'm trying to make common ground between labor and capital. i still believe, sir, labor as investors as well as labor. that was my common ground effort, sir. >> okay. >> make no mistake about it, there's a lot of the room for common ground and we're reaching out, but what it requires is some real regulation of wall street because they don't get it yet. america's hurting. nothing's changed for them. we need regulation to make sure they understand they have to support the real economy that

creates jobs and not just the financial economy that they can make money off of one another. >> richard trumka, it was a pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. >> i'd love to come back. >> i love a fighter, mr. trumka, i love a fighter. >> he was certainly up for a good fight. bill griffeth, any fights? >> we may have a little fight. i doubt it. we've got intel's ceo with us. what is acknowledged as a critical company in the leading indicator on the economy. also, "forbes" out with ten uncommon indicationers. do you have a favorite uncommon

economic indicator? send it to us. we'll see you at the top of the hour. up next, they're ranked the most business friendly company in latin america, but columbia is still trying to change the world's perception. and an inside look at intel. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

if you live here in the city, watch out for gigantic carts on the streets of new york. they're part of a campaign that columbia's launching to curtail the country's image problem. perceptions of the country, they may soon be changing. joining me here is columbian minister of commerce. >> very happy to be here. let's get to the free trade agreement. what is the status of that? is it on hold? >> it's been approved by the

congress and now by the u.s. congress, which we hope will be soon. >> why is it being held up? >> we don't actually know. i think it was election time, change in congress. u.s. parks have to pay taxes. >> this is the case where actually americans have tipped their goods without. >> it actually helps grow the economy and helps everybody be better off and prosper. >> let's talk about the image. you've been very involved in this campaign to change the image. i've been there myself, to the heart of what was the most, i suppose, infamous, region.

but anyway, how do you change an image like that, where a country for so long has been such a drang rouse place? >> there's been a turnaround. we're doing this campaign, taking it to the world. we have this gigantic arch, this little symbol here. we brought them to new york, going to europe and china next. we show the world what we're all about. geography, urban cities. very different from what most people siee in the news. >> stock market up 43% to date. how's the economy faring? >> it's quite well, actually. we expect it to grow this year. exports are holding back a little bit, but are still growing and investment is sky

rocketing. >> thank you for joining us. back to melissa. intel's annual developers forum kicks off this afternoon in san francisco. ceo paul otellini will deliver the keynote address. the chip-making giant is having a strong year so far. shares are up 35%. currently trading around $19.61. jim goldman joins us with more. >> indeed, intel does host it forum here in san francisco, but the question of the day, are the 5,000 developers here by choice or pressured to be. it's not such a laughing matter when you consider this technology combat comes against new disclosures to the case in europe. intel is appealing that $1.4 billion fine and an investigator

has found prosecute misconduct. newly released documents showing what it says is clear predatory pressure against companies like hp and dell. today, intel will focus on its technology road map, which has severed well and the wild success of netbooks. intel maintaining their margins all the while. this device is from villa. these little sort of tablet computers that give you full internet access. they are also mobile entertainment devices. this is a huge trend right now and intel is the leader when it comes to the leader of

microprocessors inside. join us at 1:30 on "power lunch" when i'll sit down with paul otellini for that first on cnbc interview. you'll get his reaction to all the news on this economy. >> sounds like a lot of good stuff. thanks. we have a clue to reveal. >> you'll get a kick out of it. that's ahead right here on "the call." it concerns one of the anchors. you want a financial partner... who is unusually prepared to help. the meeting with northern trust went well, didn't it? yeah, they get it. they really get it. a little more stability would be nice. northern trust offers the strength and expertise... that can only come from a 120-year track record... of thriving even in difficult times. they understand. roller coasters are for kids, not money. ♪ northern trust. wealth management. asset management. asset servicing.

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this is a fun one. did you see "the new york times" cross word puzzle a couple of weeks ago? 15 across was a cnbc anchor, regan. for the answer, who are we going to ask? trish. >> oh, come on. this is easy. it's funny. one of the things about this is i noticed how many people do do this cross word because i was getting e-mails from friends at

7:00 a.m. and i had no idea they did this crossword. our producer is addicted. at least it was an easy one. >> you're a household name, trish. that is the bottom line. >> can you tell that i'm getting red already? >> no. >> the other funny thing about this and we made it easy for our producer, in the same puzzle, 52 across was bartenders announcement and the answer was what this segment happens to be. last call. >> you might want to work on that handwriting. >> how about that. last call. i like that. i haven't had many last calls, except for this show. >> that's it for "the call." thanks for joining us. >> no last calls. i'll see you tonight in the kudlow report. and now, "power lunch" is up next.

larry's a much nicer guy whout the without the last calls. welcome to "power lunch." i'm bill griffeth. stocks are on a steady march higher today. 14 s&p 500 companies have new highs today including gap, morgan stanley and wyatt. ben bernanke and fellow fed members meeting now to talk about the economy and the future, but with gold at the record, surging oil and diving dollar, should the fed really be focussing on inflation? forget economic forecasters who get paid big to tell us the recession is over. if you want the real read on the economy, take a look at the color of men's ties or the size of restaurant garbage bags.

>> we've got all that, plus, a first on cnbc with intel's ceo. here's what else. bank of america's trying to get out from under the government's thumb, but questions about the merrill deal are keeping it tie nd knots. and julia boorstin in new york. facebook and nielsen are teaming up to measure the ads impact. i spoke with facebook's ceo about the partnership. >> all right. market action. stock higher triggering early gains in financials. off setting pressure from health care and scott wapner kicks it off at the new york stock exchange. >> you mentioned the financials and that's where i want to start with. aig, the stock we've been watching for months. u