tv Closing Bell CNBC September 22, 2009 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
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mentioning raising the price target to $25. that is on confidence of the bank's position. how about general electric. it hit 15 to the upside. just shy, basically at $17. it traded north of $17 intraday a couple of times last week. if it closes above $17 this week it will be the highest level for the parent of this network since january. retailers as well. lowe's reaffirmed their 2009 outlook. mostly below estimate. 2010 numbers look to be at the low end of the range. 123 to 134. street was looking for 134. carmax. cash for clunkers increased traffic at carmax. carnival the cruise line beat their 2009 outlook, giving a lift to royal caribbean.
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conagra, increased prices to lift sales. up in chicago we start with brian at the nasdaq. >> thank you, scott. fascinating day because the range has been so tight. basically a 12-point range, .4%, about nine points. let's start with what is working, microsoft up 1.5%. silicone valley insiders say they are gaining shares. cramer pointed out they should have more. amazon, dan brown's lost symbol sales record is a net positive. palm, nokia rumors in europe. google right now clinging to that 500 level. mr. whopner talked about it. on "street signs" they said google is not making money on their businesses so why not buy
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some companies. here are some ideas. open text, blackboard and webmd. this is conversational but an interesting conversation nonetheless. down down 1.1%. dell, people are discussing the deal with perot systems. cisco down 1.1%. intel basicallying saying we expect pc sales to be flath to slightly up in 2009. that stock up .4% and the chip sector having strength. if you want to talk about strength you have to talk about oil and gold. bertha coombs has the latest. >> that's right the bump up of the dollar that caused commodities to sell off reversed high. the dollar hit new lows against
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a number of major currencies. rick santelli will have more. but that lit a fire under commodities. oil rallied back above $71 a barrel. hemmed in a bit. we are getting the october contract closing out just above $71.56. tomorrow we begin trading november. we have to focus on fundamentals tomorrow despite today some incremental good news the saudi minister saying they are seeing more demand for saudi's oil. tomorrow we get the inventory numbers. we are expecting to see a drawdown in crude, 1 million to 2.5 million barrels. the other story that we need to talk about is gold. the metals overall rallied up to the upside hard today. copper was a strong point, but gold once again above $1,000. we came very close to seeing yet
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another record high close. $1,018 and change an ounce. unusual to see an aggressive move on the down side of the dollar ahead of a fed meeting tomorrow. rick santelli, this is a real conundrum. folks want to seem to sell it here. >> i don't know how much new information other than forecasts is going to be in tomorrow's statement. of course, asset purchases may be something that could affect that dollar. let's look at the interest rates, we had a good two-year note auction measured by the timely aspects of customer investor demand around the time of the auction. whether you look at intraday, one month, year to date, rates crept up, up towards 4 1/2 week highs but they have moderated. seems like they are buying junk,
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corporates, treasuries and stocks. the only thing they are not buying is what bertha was talking about. gold should be close to its high because the dollar weakness is a huge driver there because the dollar closed at one-year lows especially when you consider the two-day bounce which didn't hold any ground from friday and monday. now back to scott and maria bartiromo. >> thanks very much. >> holding court down here. >> holding court with scott. continuing to trade higher. joining scott and me to talk about the action, how the invest in this environment bob auer and kamal kamar. thank you gentlemen. >> we have seen a nice move in this market from the lows. you think the easy money has been made in the market. >> this market is very, very
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strong. it is literally a freight train, but the easy money, the citigroup, the easy money and the bounces have been made. that doesn't mean we won't work harder. fundamentals are going to come into play here. very important to do your homework. more important than ever. >> a lot of people are questioning whether the market has gotten ahead of the fundamentals. >> the market may be ahead of this year's fundamentals, not ahead of future year's fundamentals. >> where do you see this move in the market going? i get a sense you are more cautious than most? >> i'm quite a bit more cautious. a speeding train can be stopped on its tracks. we have consumers are on strike with the unemployment rate 10% or higher, the fiscal deficit and bank not lending to small and mid size companies.
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i can't see a recovery going on. the second half of the year looks good. the first half of next year we are in for a drop in ddp. >> so might one of those catalysts or upsets in this market be an international upset? we talked off camera about the idea we could be seeing a trade war beginning with china. we had some change of policies from the obama administration as it relates to tires. we saw two retaliations out of china. >> very good question, maria, and timely. the chinese have responded with tariffs on u.s. poultry. today we have news that hollywood movies are on the chinese side. the timing is no coincidence, while we have the clinton global initiative in new york city today, we have trade restrictions and not to forget that in june of 1930 it was the
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taft-hartley act. >> how does that play into investing globally in your view? >> very good point as well. i think in terms of how it goes on, there could be restrictions on investments and to the extent china is restricted from making a pose to the united states it doesn't make sense that multinationals be located there. the other point is in the united states we have companies that defend on the chinese investments in order to produce and export more and they are going to suffer the impact of what the u.s. is doing and how the chinese are reacting. not to forget this started on the u.s. side with imports on the chinese tires into the united states. >> bob, if you are the portfolio manager of what you say is a fundamentally focused fund, this is a rally absent of
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fundamentals, really. how does that force you to change your investing strategy? >> well, it has and it hasn't. first of all, we have not changed our strategy. but you've had now five months these leading economic indicators are turning positive. the first time since 2004. this market is not doing this as a dead cap bounce. there are some very positive signs that are happening. as far as china, these are worrisome if the chinese throw up blockades, but to us, china is already onboard. they are driving buicks, eating at kentucky fried chicken and using ipods. there is no turning back. this to us is noise covering up what is a really, maybe the best rally we have seen in 50 years. >> you said no one wants to get in the way of it. not that many people believe in
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it. >> we love that. as long as people don't believe in it it will keep fueling itself. as soon as the last person comes onboard there is no more dry powder. >> i have a different position. nobody denies the recession has ended, but the stock market is supposed to look six, nine months ahead at the economy. it is not enough to say the recession is ended. you have to say what is happening in the next 12 months and that is where the doubts come in. >> great conversation. great to see you. >> good to see you guys, 45 minutes to go before the closing bell rings. the dow jones holding on to a gain, nasdaq higher, commodities higher, financials as well. the prime minister of canada in the house with me to talk about the economy in canada and the world. what he is expecting out of the g-20 meetingsened the u.n.
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welcome back. the u.n. general assembly kicks off tomorrow. in the united states hopes are high that a recovery is underway after optimistic comments by ben bernanke. in canada the outlook is cautious. officials saying the country is likely still in a recession and recovery will be slow. joining me to talk about that is canadian prime minister stephen harper. mr. prime minister, so nice to have you back. >> thank you for having me. >> the last time we spoke was the g-20 in london. how would you characterize things? >> we have a fragile recovery. we are seeing the beginnings of some growth in canada.
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i wouldn't underestimate in canada, united states, globally, how much this growth is due to stimulus measures, monetary and fiscal measures. we haven't yet seen a real rebound in private investment that will sustain the recovery globally so we are very cautious. we are continuing to implement our stimulus program. seeing some growth but not yet seeing the kind of growth that will improve our labor markets. >> what do you think it is going to take to get people spending money again? when we spoke at the g-20 in london we talked about the canadian bank outpaced the u.s. bank in terms of credit and in terms of the financial upset where so many of the u.s. bank were brought to their knees, actually. what is most important? getting credit moving again? getting the consumers out shopping? is it getting tax cuts to the people? what do you think is the magic bullet? >> i don't think there is a magic bullet. we have to make sure when we
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have the next wave of growth it is built on a sustainable basis. globally there are three things that are really important, it is important to continue to implement stimulus measures, we have to take steps to prevent protectionism. let's slip away from open markets. those countries like the united states particularly that have had problems in the financial sector, those problems have to be fixed. there have to be better more sensible regulatory environment in the future. >> we see commodities continuing to rise in value. what is your sense in terms of demand for oil and gas? >> well, look, my strong view is over the longer term we will continue to see strong demand for fossil fuels. i tell people in my country and in my party this is one of the reasons we should be concerned about climate change not just emissions. the demand for fossil fuel is
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outstripping low-cost supply. i think canada is a strong energy producing country, those commodities will continue to be in strong demand and have helped our economy, will continue to help our economy but we have to diversify energy sources. >> where are you seeing the most demand in terms of energy right now? we talked about the insatiable thirst out of china. is that still the growth story as it relates to energy or elsewhere? >> well, we operate in canada, our energy market is almost totally a private sector market driven phenomenon. the government doesn't engineer the energy markets. we have seen a strong demand in oil. a symptom of some recovery and a symptom of countries like china buying supply. natural gas is worrisome. the prices have not recovered there. the sheer demand for fossil fuel
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relative to the long-term situation of low-cost supply means prices are going to rice. >> prime minister harper, let me ask you about something you just mentioned, protectionism. president obama put new restrictions on tires coming out of china. we saw retaliation out of china, new restrictions on hollywood movies going into china, restrictions on poultry. do you worry about a trade war? do you worry about these kinds of actions leading to protectionism? >> i don't want to pick on any particular action. the chinese would see it as protectionism. the american administration sees it as enforcing trade rules. there is a drift toward protectionism in the world. it is not overwhelming but concerns us. we have the buy america here, the domestic procurement policies. we did not pursue that route.
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in canada we did the opposite. we lowered tariffs on imported machinery and equipment. we believe very strongly and the canadian experience is clear, open markets are good for our economy and the global economy in the long term. we can never forget virtually all the growth we have seen in the last decade has been due to open markets globally. we warn players to be cautious about any steps that would tend to roll that back. we saw in the 1930s how a big recession became a big depression because markets closed. >> you worked with the banking sector w business in order to encourage businesses to create jobs. >> yeah. we, first of all, canada's situation was different. we have not had a bank failure. the government has not been putting public money into financial institutions. we had a well-regulated sector that acted in a prudent way.
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we have worked with some government a agencies to ensure that there is a supply of credit in parts of the economy that have been affected by the global credit crisis, but as i say, by and large we are fortunate we have kept the government out of day-to-day banking in our country. >> we talked about the monetary and federal stimulus all over the world. how concerned are you about an exit strategy, about winding down some of the stimulus package around the world. the federal reserve will have to start tightening, raising interest rates when unemployment will be in the double digits, 10%. >> at the g-20 we are encouraging leaders to think about exit strategies but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. let's make sure the stimulus measures are fully delivered, the recovery in the economy is less fragile, more sustained,
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more private sector investment driving it. it is important to continue to deliver stimulus. at some point those countries, particularly those highly indebted or engaged in expansionary monetary policies are going to have to figure out ways to ease out of that and avoid inflation and some of the problems with higher interest rates and debt spirals. canada very fortunately is not in that position. our interest rates are low. we haven't yet embarked on money creation per se. i forget what the technical term for that is. we haven't engaged in that. while our deficits are high by recent standards, compared to the rest of the world they are low and our debt levels are very low. our exit will be relatively smooth. they should not think about exit strategies in terms of getting
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out of this crisis. >> how important are these meetings, what would it take to walk away from the meetings to say this was a success? what would you like to achieve? >> the g-20 meeting is the big one in terms of the economy. i hope we continue to see a focus on the economy and a willness to deliver stimulus, fight protectionism, get toxic assets off the balance sheets and provide prudent regulation with some kind of international peer review that will allow us to have sustainable growth in the future. whether we will see all that, i hope we have that focus at the g-20. >> i believe a report from s&p saying the canadian economy will turn positive in the third quarter but recovery will be slow because consumers are yet to ramp up spending. do you believe we'll see growth return? >> we actually saw some growth
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in june. we believe there will be gross in the latter half of the year. there should continue to be growth in 2010. we are still speculating at this point. we should be cautious. that is the approach we are taking. the fundamentals of the canadian economy are sound but obviously we are dependent hugely on the export market to the united states so we're watching the developments here very carefully and some of the tentativeness and growth here as well. >> that is really the sticking point, the export market to the united states because the u.s. consumer is sluggish. >> that is really where canada got hit. we were about a year later falling into the recession than the united states. eventually the sheer impact of the american consumer on our exports affected us and put us in a deep downturn in the beginning part of this year. i don't think the american consumer will ever be as strong as he or she was in the past.
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i agree with president obama, we cannot hinge future world growth on an overspending american consumer. that is not a wise strategy. that is not the strategy of the government of canada. we have had relatively good, relatively stable consumer situation in our country and trying to diversify our export markets. we are signing trade deals with other countries to make sure we are not dependent on the american consumer. >> what other countries are important? >> we signed trade deals with eight new countries. we are engaged in economic partnership talks with the european union. canada has been trying for decades to get trade or economic deal with the european union. we are in discussions. that is a very important initiative after our free trade agreement with the united states this would be the most important thing any canadian government
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has done on the trade front. >> we saw positive gdp showings in trance and germany. do you think that is sustainable? >> yes. but the same cautions as elsewhere. continue with stimulus, make sure private investment recovers and watch protectionism and a well-regulated, not overregulated but well-regulated system. >> we are going to have vaclav klaus on. do you have strong views on missiles in the czech republic? >> we are a nato ally. we are in a continental defense arrangement with the united states. we're anxious to be helpful in terms of our shared world as canadians and americans. it was always a controversial
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initiative. i would hope and i have no reason to believe it represents in any way an america retreating from security responsibility. i hope it improves our relationship as an alliance with the russia without jeopardizing longer term security concerns we share with the united states. >> mr. prime minister, so nice to having you on the program. >> good to be back. >> prime minister stephen harper. just ahead we will have charlie gasparino on the impact of ken lewis' future. aig stock selling off, down 4.5% in the final stretch of the day. we'll have more on aig coming up next. um bill--
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he joins us. we got the book plug in. >> i heard maria laugh. >> congratulations on the book, charlie. you know i'm going to be first in line buying the book. >> you are the first in line to get an autographed copy. >> what am i, chopped liver? >> i told you to go spend money on the book. >> not only do ladies come fist, but italian women come first. >> exactly. >> this is an interesting story, is he being treated fairly. the big question is he going to last? sources tell cnbc if it is purely a civil charge from andrew cuomo against ken lewis over failure to disclose bonuses they are going to fight it out, they say as of right now ken lewis is not resigning if it is a civil charge. however, if the s.e.c. charges, wall street's top cop, the
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securities and exchange commission although they haven't acted like that in the last ten or 15 years, if it is a charge by s.e.c., they are reopening their investigation. judge raykoff said it hurt shareholders and lewis may be in the renewed s.e.c. investigation, if he gets charged by the s.e.c. that is when you'll see ken lewis in all likelihood according to people at b of a, you will see him resign. how far are we away from that? quite a while on both cases. cuomo's office is deposing directors. that will take time. the other question is, maria, i know this is something you have looked at a lot, is this fair? i will say this. i have been fairly critical of ken lewis. i will tell you this, in the midst of that insanity of last year, if you think a disclosure might be a little off, if you
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think that there wasn't pressure put on ken lewis to do the deal because if you didn't do the merrill lynch deal the global financial system would have come to a halt. i really do question whether all this pressure on lewis is nothing more than monday morning quarterbacking. >> i can't even believe this, charlie. i think the rest of the world is laughing their asses off. we have terrorists being arrested because of these cell phones and knapsacks, the possibility of a trade war with china, an economy that is teetering and we are over here thinking about arresting, taking charges, bringing charges on a guy because of this disclosure. let's not forget thatting weekend of september 15th when they said do the deal. and then they tell him. i didn't realize all these losses. things have become adverse changing the mac.
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then they say, no, don't disclose it. so they encourage him. one government discourages him to go public and another government wants to bring him down. all i can say is maybe there are things we don't know. there better be things we don't know. >> by the way, this is all about context. if it was happening under normal conditions i would have said he should have disclosed certain things. >> absolutely. this was not normal conditions. this was insanity. >> maybe there is something we don't know. you have to give the benefit of the doubt to andrew cuomo. on the face of it, it looks so goofy. >> you forget one thing, andrew cuomo is running for office. he wants to be governor of new york state. i like him personally. he is pulling a page. eliot spitzer showed us how to do it. >> wow. >> you torch wall street and you
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can become governor of new york state. i have been torturing wall street. i'm not defending what they do. this is a page out of the playbook. you don't lose many votes when you attack a ceo from north carolina. >> i don't know. >> i want to see more. >> maybe there is something we don't know. >> based on the information you have now, what do you think? >> i just told you. think it is goofy. i can't even believe this. >> no clue, charlie. worse-case scenario, lewis is out, the s.e.c. files charges, who steps in there? >> brian moynihan. i do not think -- people talking about sally koichak. i don't think it will be here. brian moynihan, he has been there a while. there is a chuck prince principle, he is a lawyer. chuck prince didn't do very well. >> we've got to run. >> they may go outside.
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before we get to the fast money final call want to show you a chart of aig. the stock has been hit right after 3:00. there are rumors circulating on the floor that aig may be preparing a secondary offering, a call by cnbc to aig. they did not comment on that story. they do not comment on market rumors. that mere rumor that aig may be preparing for a secondary offering may be felt in this stock price after 3:00, that sharp reversal after what has been a fairly decent two days for shares of aig. it is time for the "fast money" final call the dollar is lower after several days of gains. where is the dollar headed next? zach karabell, zach, was it
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three days the dollar was showing strength and we were slapped back to reality. >> i'm still stuck on the aig not commenting on market rumors. what else are you going to comment on? i think with the dollar there is a trading dollar and a fundamental dollar. and depending on where you are on that spectrum you can make mounds out of mole hills or not. what has gone on in the past few days is in the trading dollar phenomenon. a lot of people, currency dealers globally who will try to make incremental gains based on news headlines, the g-20 summit and the fed meeting, although hard to see anything coming out of the fed heating that will be a substantial maneuver on the dollar. >> speak english to me, zach, is the dollar going up or down? >> it is where it is for now. if you are a trader you could make money on it going up or
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down a few cents. it is around the range it is probably going to be in for a long time to come. >> what do you like? what sectors do you like right now? >> the things people say it is helping, the commodities, the global industrials have fundamental strength and the tail wind of the dollar to help them. it is difficult in my view not to like those. you have fundamentals and more short-term trading dynamics that are helping them. it is why you are seeing copper names go up, parent company of this network, ge, going up. some is capital stabilization of ge capital. those names that have been the leader throughout the summer remain the areas you want to focus on. >> you know i'm kidding with you. >> i'm trying to speak english. i am. >> the street talk housing analyst gives you his top plays. as bernanke and company garther
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in washington, your best moves ahead of tomorrow 5:00 p.m. we have 15 minutes before the closing bell sounds. dow industrials with 15% gain, tech, energy, financials in the gain. >> do the fundamentals support the uptick from oil to gold? some answers. >> after the bell i will talk to the prime minister of qatar. where is he investing the billions in his sovereign wealth fund, sheikh hamad joins me. protecting your heart includes watching your cholesterol.
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downgraded from sell to hold. shares are up nearly 100% since late february. pinnacle entertainment upgraded to outperform because of a stronger financial position and improving revenue in some markets. >> a majority of commodities rebounding after a strong rally parallel to the equity markets. will that run continue? morgan downey is with standard chartered bank. he joins me now. >> hi, maria. >> what do you think is behind the move in commodities. >> consolidation ahead of a rally in q4. your prices recovered quite substantially in 2009. we have seen stashlization across base metals, oils, stabilization across the spectrum. price recovery occurred and now
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we are seeing a consolidation as underlying fundamental demand catches up with that recovery. after this consolidation we see significantly higher prices into the fourth quarter. gold rallying above $1,100 an ounce and oil heading back up or up to $85. >> i guess what i'm trying to figure out here is whether or not the fundamentals are really driving the move in commodities or is this speculation? do you see demand for commodi commodities around the world despite the economic slowdown globally? >> yes, i do. in addition to demand recovery, opec has removed a substantial amount of oil from the market. 3 million barrels a day. demand is down. in addition to looking at the demand, you have to look at supply, which across base metals and energy is quite constrained and i would give opec ten out of
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ten. without their cuts in production since the beginning of the year we would be at $40 a barrel. removing 3 million barrels has brought us up to $70. next year it will be a constraint on any price recovery. we are not going to see $100 plus oil at any time throughout 2010, but between now and the end of the year you'll see prices continue to grind higher up to $85, $95 based on the supply constraints and the start of demand recovery. >> so that means you are putting new capital to work intie commodities right now? >> pretty much. $70 is a good price for exploration and discovery. it is a good price $70 or above. >> all right. >> i think it is good for both
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the those in favor will vote aye side and at these prices at least it appears to be okay for the demand side. we are seeing demand recover despite the recover in prices. >> we appreciate you being on show the show. morgan downey, standard chartered bank. ten minutes bf the closing bell sounds. market higher, 54 points higher. i'm seeing lots of green. ge up 1.5%, a dow component. parent of this network. ibm higher as well as fm services. ge had the technical breakout at $15. we are watching today to see if it could close above $17. that would be the highest level in shares of our parent company since back in january. maria, the financials are beating the market. five sectors are outperforming in the same time span. we have the scoop on who else is rallying next. please help me welcome a long-time friend of glencoe baseball.
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getting a check of your widely held stocks. the red hot financial sector has been the place to be the past six months yet the sector's september performance leaves a lot to be desired. matt nesto has more. >> we won't see any foam finger we are number one from the financials. if you look at the trough you will. believe it or not on a month-to-date basis, we're number six! we're number -- not a lot to get fired up about. the s&p versus financials they can't beat that. the industrials for some reason popped in there. the financials are lagging on a month-to-date basis. who is beating them? well, guess what? the industrials are. up 9.6%. so are the materials and the energy and the discretionary stocks. those four sectors together, i
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have named the dime sectors, plus technology rounds it out, being beat by the staples, health, utilities and telecom, or they are beating those groups. they are the second largest weighted sector at 15.5%. there is a lot of late money that missed those early days that is chasing this group to get back to a market weight, market neutral position whether you like financials or not you could be losing your shirt. financials still move markets. second biggest weighter. in fact, they have more clout than the industrials and materials combined. let that sink in for a moment. lastly, three of four financial industries aren't performing. that halloween means one is. the real estate stocks up 13.5%. the reits. back to you. >> matt, thank so much. >> up next, the closing
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welcome back to the floor of the new york stock exchange. time for the closing countdown. three straight days of gains for the greenback. some people were thinking the dollar was going to reverse course. no. reality set in. dollar weaker today and the commodities story remains in tact the dow jones industrial average is higher by 46 points, technology having a fairly decent day as well. google's price target got raised to $560 at cancord adams. financials very much in focus today, aig on heavy volume and rumors circulating about a secondary offering on that stock. a sharp reversal on that stock. no comment from that company. the bell is going to sound here. the market is going to close on the plus side. maria bartiromo in just a second.
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and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? i'm maria bartiromo oon the floor of the new york stock exchange. we have a jam-packed story. global leaders and what they see. the rally rolls on. the market higher. helped by upgrades of macy's and hewlett packard, an increased outlook for carnival and conagra. all of that coming up. oil price a big story. back above $70 a barrel. the greenback hitting its lowest level against the euro. intel ceo telling cnbc he is bullish on the pc markets and sales could defy predictions and rise this year. we will tell you what else is coming out of intel's big
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developer's forum. in a few moments i will be sitting down with the president of the czech republic. the dow jones industrials up, s&p 500 picking up seven points, fractional gain. nasdaq higher by eight points 2,146. not moscow whopner. >> the reason we closed in positive territory is the dollar was weak and oil higher today by 1.84. gold is closing at $1,017 an ounce. the financials a sector of leadership. i want to focus on shares of aig. this was a stock that was up sharp off the open today after a government watchdog group saying it is show signs of stabilization. this is continuing a move to the upside. a late-day selloff. take a look. a sharp reversal. a rumor
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