this and the kevin warsh editorial as well as his comments midday, which seemed to bring the market to its session low? >> the comments midday -- >> just sort of reiterating -- >> did he say anything about -- did he write that piece on his own? was he kind of off the reservation? i would guess that a guy like him wouldn't just do that, that it would be a concerted effort to send a message -- let's send the right message, let's do it together, let's do it so that we are not misinterpreted. they didn't give -- he didn't give any sense of timing in that editorial at all. so i think they were just reiterating the message that look, we're not going to fall asleep at the switch here. we know we need to do this at some point. we're going to be vigilant. that was it. that was the entire message that i got. >> and that's the same message that we've heard again -- >> again and again. they've been consistent. that's right. i actually thought, guy -- i disagreed a little. i thought the market action was pretty good today considering you that had durable goods numbers that weren't so good. you had rim rimm that was terrible. you had some housing data that

was weak. put all of that together, down three, four -- not a big deal. >> i thought the market would be down a lot more than it was, frankly. i was encouraged by the performance. but i still think overall we're headed down. >> i think you have two stories this weekend. the fundamental story and then you have the technical story from wednesday. the technical story has been all year that anytime we take out resistance in the market it becomes support. if the bearish technicals are correct and we go down and test 10, 10 to 1015 that's the level you have to hold. basically the market is challenge the premise that if the federal reserve takes the training wheels off and allows the little boy to go ride the bike by himself then he'll be able to ride the bike by himself, that risky assets will continue to move higher. and you know what, when you take the training wheels off the bike at first no, doubt about it, everyone's going to do it, the bike's going to wobble a little bit. but eventually it steadies out. >> but the key is we always think the market is the best leading indicator. has this market run up based on

recovery or is it run up based on the funeral is off? no one can tell me what the difference is. >> several different stages of that. back in march and april armageddon taken off the table, that's the funeral is called off. >> but the market is ahead. >> but now you're looking forward at this point, june, july, august, and september, it has been about a modest recovery. >> the problem is when do we get back to normalized earnings? i think that's what people are watching, especially in the financials. >> in the next couple weeks particularly when the financials do report. speaking of financials we've all been saying on the desk that goldman sachs is the canary in the coalmine. all eyes were on gs today, made a huge intraday reversal finishing lower by almost 4%, closing below that $180 mark. certainly this -- it really seemed to be the turn in the market least in today's session. >> it came after citibank made some positive comments after meeting with management. i think citi has a $225 price target. goldman reversal today is a little bit startling. they're still first in m&a fees in the standings, still the best out there. but again, the stock's had a tremendous run. you wonder if today's reversal, you come back again in a couple weeks and say that was the day. i happen to think it is,

frankly. i do think you can see the stock trade in the 16 0z. citi's comments notwithstanding. maybe it does go to 225 but i'm looking for a move lower. >> the concern about the citi comments was that equity would be a bigger component of compensation because it is a bank holding company and it's going to be confined by those regulations. so if equity is a bigger component that would be dilutive to the stock and the only way to offset that theoretically would be to buy back those shares. which goldman sachs could theoretically do, i would imagine, with all the cash -- >> i think it was just a knee-jerk reaction. i don't think anyone going forward is going to sell goldman off the fact they're going to be paid higher percentages in stock for their bonuses. sxwli think the trade sets up nicely. wednesday 188's the high. today could not get above 183. so right then and there you have two reference points if you want to step out of it, if you want to get short goldman sachs. but to me it all boils down to october 14th. october 14th they are going to report earnings, and will you see thick? will you see that component? the revenue, will it be there again? remember, last quarter the

street was looking for about 3.65 in earnings. it came in north of five bucks. so you have to keep that in mind. if you are going to play goldman sachs from the short side, it's not something that i'd want to do. maybe the best trade in goldman is to do nothing right now and await those earnings. >> what do you think the best trade in goldman is right now? >> i have no position. that's what i think the best position is. but if i had to be one or the other i would be long because i do think the market will turn higher by the end of the year. >> and goldman will be the -- >> i think goldman will participate. >> speaking of financials, this is our chart of the day. let's bring up this because certainly with the turn in goldman sachs this certainly raises questions about the fate of the s&p 500 financial sector. this chart is courtesy of the spoke. the folks will drew some fancy lines using maybe a crayon perhaps. but anyway, what they're saying is right now the financial sector looks like it could break its 50-day moving average. if it does that that would be a level of 190, from current levels right now sitting out about 197 or so it could be a 3 1/2% dlieecline from where wee

now. that's not completely off the table, 3 1/2% move. they say if it does breach the 50-day it could be straight down from here. >> you wonder, the yield curve starts to flatten out today a little bit. i'm not going to make a big deal of it but it's something you have to watch. that's been the catalyst for the banks to go higher the yield curve to be steep. now if it flattens out it makes wonder is this the first sign. you have to keep your eye on it. another bank flurks not a huge deal, but you know, the 95th this year. things to me are not great on the margins. and durable goods today, again, you can't discount bad news. it is out there. >> it's definitely out there, but i think we all got a bit anesthetized toward the bad news. i don't disagree for a moment with guy. i think near term, though, we move higher and i think we move probably to 1,200. >> let's separate out because we got all that data this morning, the durables, new home sales, consumer sentiment, all of this was out there in the morning. we had a market that didn't do all that much on the back of any of those reports.

and it was only midday when we saw that rollover. what was happening on the floor, steve? what was your sense of institutional investors and how they were feeling about the market at that moment? >> on a friday everybody wants to dump, no one wants to be long the market. people have been looking for october to be a horrific month for the market, and they're sitting on the sidelines. that's what i'm saying. >> let me go back to the banks. i don't think it's a yield curve issue. the issue in the sbankz going to be non-performers. if they come down a lot the banks are going to go higher. we've seen a flight to credit, all kinds of risky assets find huge bids so, i have to think that non-performer number is going to be pretty good for a lot of these banks. >> with so which banks -- >> bank of america. that's my favorite. >> which you own the common and the preferreds on. >> look at you. >> i remember these things. i've been sitting next to you for quite some time now, k-fine. the nasdaq, the worst performing index today, as shares were down. the stock down about 17%. certainly that was a story that we were analyzing here on the desk yesterday, and it didn't get much better from the outset.

>> an absolutely horrific performance for rimm today. it opened up 71.42, which was lower than what we saw in the after-hours. and there was zero rebound, zero recovery throughout the day. it slid all the way down below 70 bucks. i think at one point it got as low as 68.42, somewhere around there. right now at rimm this report is a game changer for rimm. goldman sachs lowered the price target, downgraded rimm. going forward i don't know if it's one of the names you can continue to own as a hedge fund vip list. >> we talked about it yesterday. it will overshoot. it did it in june, it will do it again, it will overshoot probably next week. especially if the tape is weak. i'll say again don't jump into rimm thinking it's a value play because it's not and don't think you're buying the bottom because you won't, and those double tops loom in rimm. i think 65 is your first level. joe mentioned it trade down to 68 1/2 today. but i do think we'll see 65. and then go from there. we'll have an analyst on later to talk about it, but i think rimm is a crowded trade. people are going to have to pile

out. wait for it to happen. >> i think we're going to bring in that analyst right now. you guys are down on rimm right now. this man, he's standing strong on the street out there. we had a number of downgrades today, raymond james, goldman sachs all cutting the stock on the back of the earnings downgrade. our next guest went out on a limb reiterating his outlook on the name. tavis mccoy. you're out there alone on the street right now. >> it sure feels that way. >> why are you still bullish on this name? they disappointed on so many levels when you look at new subscribers and you look at average selling prices, revenue guidance. why are we molding hope for this stock at this point? >> it's a fungs i don't believe anything has really changed here. the afp guidance was a element bit weak, but it was largely because a couple of their high-end products that they expected to launch this quarter are going to launch later in the quarter. and they'll have the afps increase next quarter as those products launch. so if the bear story here is that this is going to be asp

decline forever, i think that's going to be disproven in rather short order in two or three months. so, you know, they're still a company growing 20% or 30% a year. the valuation is reasonable. i agree with what everybody said before about the momentum in the stock, and i would doubt if we've seen the lows in the next week or two but i think we will see a low and a pretty good trading opportunity in the next month. >> tavis, the asp, i'm glad you spoke about that early. does this feel like a nokia story to you, though? isn't this how the nokia decline started as well, with the asps declining? >> yeah, but it's a different strategy. the reason for the asp decline is they just aren't shipping any high-end product this quarter. and they will start shipping that high-end product next quarter. this is not a strategic shift where all of a sudden they want to start selling $50 phones into india. this is still a smartphone company. and you'll have modest asp declines every year just like you've had the last eight years at rimm. but the significant asp decline we saw this quarter was really a unique circumstance in terms of what they happen to be shipping

this quarter, and a lot of that reverses in the february quarter. >> hey, tavis, it's joe. real quick on the price itself, this is a momentum stock, as you know. is there anything you that need to see? if you don't get a quick snapback higher, are you going o'come in and maybe reassess, reevaluate your price targets on it? >> i don't think so. i think what would change my mind is the success of the two new high-end products that they're launching later this quarter in the holiday season. and that's a second version of the storm and an upgrade to the bold. if sales of those are weak, then you've got to reassess. but right now at least in terms of the reviews i've read on them and everything that i can tell from the specs, they look like very strong candidates to be deechbt definite-selling phones. >> tavis -- >> sorry to interrupt, guys. we've got to go to president obama. he is speaking at the g-20 summit. >> let me, first of all, thank mayor luke ravenstahl, county executive dan onorato, and the

people of pittsburgh for being just extraordinary hosts. last night during the dinner i had with world leaders, so many of them commented on the fact that sometime in the past they had been to pittsburgh, in some cases it was 20 or 20 or 30 years ago, and coming back they were so impressed with the revitalization of the city. a number of them commented on the fact it pointed to lessons they could take away on revitalizing manufacturing towns in their home countries. the people here have been just extraordinary. and so i want to thank all of you for the great hospitality. i will tell you, i'm a little resentful because i did not get to pamela's diner for pancakes. although prime minister yukio hatoyama of japan did get

pancakes. and i don't know how he worked that. but he was raving about them. six months ago i said that the london summit marked a turning point in the g-20's efforts to prevent economic catastrophe. and here in pittsburgh we've taken several significant steps forward to secure our recovery. in transition to strong, sustainable, and balanced economic growth. we brought the global economy back from the brink. we laid the groundwork today for long-term prosperity as well. it's worth recalling the system we faced six months ago. a contracting economy, skyrocketing unemployment, stagnant trade, and a financial system that was nearly frozen. some were warning of a second great depression. but because of the bold and coordinated actions we took, millions of jobs have been saved

and created. the decline in output has been stopped. financial markets have come back to life. and we stopped the crisis from spreading further to the developing world. still, we know there is much further to go. too many americans are still out of work and struggling to pay bills. too many families are uncertain about what the future will bring. because our global economy is now fundamentally interconnected, we need to work together to make sure our economy creates new jobs and industries while preventing the kinds of imbalances and abuse that led us into this crisis. pittsburgh was a perfect venue for this work. this city's known its share of hard times as noble industries like steel could no longer sustain growth. but pittsburgh picked itself up and dust tdself off and is making the transition to job-creating industries of the future, from biotechnology to clean energy. it serves as a model for turning

the page to a 21st century economy and a reminder that the key to our future prosperity lies not just in new york or los angeles or washington but in places like pittsburgh. today we took bold and concerted action to secure that prosperity and to forge a new framework for strong, sustainable, and balanced growth. first we agreed to sustain our recovery plans until growth is restored and a new framework for prosperity is in place. our coordinated stimulus plans played an indispensable role in preventing catastrophe. now we must make sure that when growth returns jobs do too. that's why we will continue our stimulus efforts until our people are back to work and phase them out when our recovery is strong. but we can't stop there. going forward, we cannot tolerate the same old boom and bust economy of the past. we can't grow complacent.

we can't wait for a crisis to cooperate. that's why our new framework will allow each of us to assess the others' policies, to build consensus on reform, and to ensure that global demand supports growth for all. second, we agreed to take concrete steps to move forward with tough new financial regulations so a crisis like this can never happen again. never again should we let the schemes of a reckless few put the world's financial system and our people's well-being at risk. those who abuse the system must be held accountable. those who act irresponsibly must not count on taxpayer dollars. those days are over. and that's why we've agreed to a strong set of reforms. we will bring more transparency to the derivatives market. we assert new national capital standards so the banks can withstand losses and pay for their own risks. we will create more powerful tools to hold large global financial firms accountable and

orderly procedures to manage failures without burdening taxpayers. and we will tie executive pay to long-term performance so that sound decisions are rewarded instead of short-term greed. in short, our financial system will be far different and more secure than the one that failed so dramatically last year. third, we agreed to phase out subsidies for fossil fuels so that we can transition to a 21st century energy economy. a historic effort that would ultimately phase out nearly $300 billion in global subsidies. this reform will increase our energy security. it will help transform our economy so that we're creating the clean energy jobs of the future. and it will help us combat the threat posed by climate change. as i said earlier this week in new york, all nations have a responsibility to meet this challenge, and together we have taken a substantial step forward in meeting that responsibility. finally, we agreed to reform our system of global economic

cooperation and governance. we can no longer meet the challenges of the 21st century with 20th century approaches. and that's why the g-20 will take the lead in building a new approach to cooperation, to make our institutions reflect the reality of our times we will shift more responsibility to emerging economies within the international monetary fund and give them a greater voice, to build new markets and help the world's most vulnerable citizens climb out of poverty. we establish the new world bank trust fund to support investments in food security and financing for clean and affordable energy. and to ensure that we keep our commitments we agree to continue to take stock of our efforts going forward. we have learned time and again that in the 21st century the nations of the world share mutual interests. that's why i've called for a new era of engagement that yields real result for our people, an era when nations live up to

their responsibilities and act on behalf of our shared security and prosperity. and that's exactly the kind of strong cooperation that we forged here in pittsburgh and earlier this week in new york. indeed, on issue after issue we see that the international community is beginning to move forward together. at the g-20 we've achieved a level of tangible global economic cooperation that we have never seen before while also acting to address the threat posed by climate change. at the united nations security council we passed a historic resolution to secure loose nuclear materials, to stop the spread of nuclear weapons, and to seek the security of a world without them. and as we approach negotiations with iran on october 1st, we have never been more united in standing with the united kingdom, france, russia, china, and germany in demanding that iran live up to its responsibilities. on all of these challenges there is much more work to be done. but we leave here today more

confident more united in the common effort of advancing sxurt prosperity for all of our people. so i'm very grateful to the other world leaders who are here today. and with that let me take a few questions. i'll start with ben feller of a.p. >> thank you, mr. president. the iranian president said today that your statement of this morning was a mistake and that your mistakes work in iran's favor. what gives you any sense that you can genuinely negotiate with him? and also, when you talk about holding iran accountable, is the military option growing more likely? >> i think it's important to see what happened today, building on what happened in new york. you had an unprecedented show of unity on the part of the world community saying that iran's actions raised grave doubts in

terms of their presentation that their nuclear program was for peaceful purposes. not only did the united states, france, and the united kingdom, who initiated the intelligence that brought this to light, stand before you, but you had china and russia as well issue statements calling for an immediate iaea investigation. that kind of solidarity is not typical. anyone who's been following responses to iran would have been doubtful just a few months ago that that kind of rapid response was possible. so i think iran is on notice that when we meet with them on october 1st they are going to have to come clean and they are going to have to make a choice. are they willing to go down the path which i think ultimately will lead to greater prosperity

and security for iran, giving up the acquisition of nuclear weapons and deciding that they are willing to abide by international rules and standards in their pursuit of peaceful nuclear energy? or will they continue down a path that is going to lead to confrontation? and as i said before, what has changed is that the international community i think has spoken. it is now up to iran to respond. i'm not going to speculate on the course of action that we will take. we're going to give october 1st a chance. but i think you've heard that even countries who a year ago or six months ago might have been reluctant to even discuss things like sanctions have said that

this is an important enough issue to peace and stability in the world that iran would make a mistake in ignoring the call for them to respond in a forthright and clear manner and to recognize that the choice they make over the next several weeks and months could well determine their ability to rejoin the international community or to find themselves isolated. last point i'll make specifically with respect to the military. i've always said that we do not rule out any options when it comes to u.s. security interests. but i will also reemphasize that my preferred course of action is to resolve this mie diplomatic fashion. it's up to the iranians to respond.

patricia zangerle at reuters. >> you said a couple months ago that the war in afghanistan is a war of necessity. do you think it's possible to meet u.s. objectives there without an extra infusion of u.s. troops? and as you consider this, how does the public's lagging support for the war reflect your decision-making now, and how has your review process been affected by the allegations of election fraud? thank you. >> first of all, let me be clear on our goals. we went into afghanistan not because we were interested in entering that country or positioning ourselves regionally but because al qaeda killed

3,000-plus americans and vowed to continue killing americans. and so my overriding goal is to dismantle the al qaeda network, to destroy their capacity to inflict harm not just on us but people of all faiths and all nationalities all around the world. and that is our overriding focus. stability in afghanistan and in pakistan are critical to that mission. and after several years adrift in anistan, we now find ourselves in a situation in which you have strong commitments from the isaf coalition, our nato allies. all of them are committed to making this work. but i think there's also recognition that after that many years of drift it's important we

examine our strategies to make sure they actually can deliver on preventing al qaeda from establishing safe havens. obviously, the allegations of fraud in the recent election are of concern to us, and we are still awaiting results. we're awaiting the iec and the ecc issuing their full report. what's most important is that there is a sense of legitimacy in afghanistan among the afghan people for their government. if there is not, that makes our task much more difficult. in terms of the review process that we're going through, the minute i came into office, we initiated a review and even before that review was completed i ordered 21,000 additional troops into afghanistan because i thought it was important to secure the election.

to make sure that the taliban did not disrupt it. what i also said at the time was that after the election we are going to reassess our strategy precisely because so much of our success has to be linked to the ability of the afghan people themselves to provide for their own security, their own training. the afghan government's ability to deliver services and opportunity and hope to their peop people. so we are doing exactly what i said we would do in march. i put in a new commander, general mcchrystal, and i asked him to give me an unvarnished assessment of the situation in afghanistan. and he has done that as well. but keep in mind that from the start my belief was, and this is shared with our isaf allies, that our military strategy is only part of a a broader project that has to include a civilian component, has to include a

diplomatic component, and all those factors are being weighed and considered at this point. and i will ultimately make this decision based on what will meet that core goal that i set out at the beginning, which is to dismantle, disrupt, and destroy the al qaeda network. with respect to public opinion, i understand the public's weariness of this war given that it comes on top of weariness about the war in iraq. every time we get a report of a young man or woman who's fallen in either of those theaters of war, it's a reminder of the extraordinary sacrifice that they're making. i know that our partners in afghanistan feel that same pain

when they see their troops harmed. so this is not easy. and i would expect that the public would ask some very tough questions. that's exactly what i'm doing. is asking some very tough questions. we're not going to arrive at perfect answers. i think anybody who's looked at the situation recognizes that it's difficult and it's complicated. but my solemn obligation is to make sure that i get the best answers possible, particularly before i make decisions about sending additional troops into the theater. john delano of kdki. is john around? >> right here. >> good to see you, john. >> thank you, mr. president. let me ask you, while we were inside this very safe and secure and beautiful convention center, some 5,000 at least demonstrators were on the outside, some caused some

property damage, others just shouted their messages, much of which had to do that while you believe the g-20 summit was a success and represents a positive sign they see it as something devilish and destructive of the world economy and particularly the economy of the poor. what's your response to those who are demonstrating and those who oppose this summit? >> well, first of all, i think it's important just to keep things in perspective. for the people of pittsburgh if you have looked at any of the other summits that took place, i mean, in london you have hundreds of thousands of people on the streets. in most of these summits there has been a much more tumultuous response. and i think the mayor and the county executive and all the people of pittsburgh deserve extraordinary credit for having managed what is a very tranquil

g-20 summit. i think that many of the protests are just directed generically at capitalism and they object to the existing global financial system. they object to free markets. one of the great things about the united states is that you can speak your mind and you can protest. that's part of our tradition. but i fundamentally disagree with their view that the free market is the source of all ills. ironically, if they had been paying attention to what was taking place inside the summit itself, what they would have heard was a strong recognition from the diverse collection of leaders in history that it is

important to make sure that the market is working for ordinary people, that government has a role in regulating the market in ways that don't cause the kinds of crisis that we've just been living through. that our emphasis has to be on more balanced growth and that includes making sure that growth is bottom up, that workers, ordinary people, are able to pay their bills, make a decent living, send their children to college, and that the more that we focus on how the least of these are doing the better off all of us are going to be. that principle was embodied in the communique that was issued. and so yeah, i would recommend those who are out there

protesting, if they're actually interested in knowing what was taking place here today, to read the communique that was issued. laurent lauzano. is laurent here? >> thank you, mr. president. i would like to follow up on iran. since iran seems to be so blatantly in breach its international obligations and with some of your allies, main allies growing impatient, why even meet with the iranians on october 3rd? and can you also explain to us what happened between the end of 2007, when an intelligence estimate came down on the side that iran was pursuing nuclear weapons and this year? what credit should be given to such intelligence? >> well, first of all, to the intelligence we presented to the

ia iaea, this was the work product of three intelligence agencies, not just one. these intelligence agencies checked over this work in a painstaking fashion, precisely because we didn't want any ambiguity about what exactly was going on there. and i think the response that you saw today indicates the degree to which this intelligence is solid and indicates the degree to which iran was constructing an enrichment facility that it had not declared, contrary to u.n. resolutions and contrary to the rules governing the iaea. in terms of meeting, i have said repeatedly that we're going to operate on two tracks -- that our preferred method of action

is diplomatic. but if that does not work, then other consequences may follow. i also said, and this was debated extensively here in the united states, because there were some who suggested you can't talk to iran, what's the point, that by keeping the path of diplomacy open that would actually strengthen world unity and our collective efforts to then hold iran accountable. i think you're starting to see the product of that strategy unfold during the course of this week. what we saw at the united nations, in the security council, was a strong affirmation of the principles of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and as a consequence the iaea is strengthened and those countries who follow the rules are strengthened when it comes

to dealing with countries like north korea and iran that don't follow the rules. and that means that when we find that diplomacy does not work we will be in a much stronger position to, for example, apply sanctions that have bite. however, that said, that's not the preferred course of action. i would love nothing more than to see iran choose the responsible path. whether they do so or not will ultimately depend on their leaders, and they will have the next few weeks to show to the world which path they want to travel. i'm going to take one last question. yeah, i've got to call on one of these guys. my constituency here.

all right. chip. >> thank you, mr. president. you just mentioned sanctions that have bite. what kinds of sanctions -- and i know you can't get into details. but what kinds of sanctions at all would have bite with iran? do you really think any kind of sanctions would have an effect on somebody like ahmadin jad? secondly, some of your advisers today said this announcement was a "victory." do you consider it a victory? and if so, why didn't you announce it earlier, since you've known since you were president-elect? >> you know, this isn't a football game. so i'm not interested in victory. i'm interested in resolving the problem. the problem is that iran repeatedly says that it's pursuing nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes and its actions contradict its words. and as a consequence the region is more insecure and vital u.s.

interests are threatened. my job is to try to solve that. and my expectation is that we are going to explore with our allies, with the p-5 plus one, a wide range of options in terms of how we approach iran should iran decline to engage in the ways that are responsible. you just told me i'm not going to get into details about sanctions, and you're right. i will not. but i think that if you have the international community making a strong united front that iran's going to have to pay attention. in terms of why we didn't come out with this sooner, i already mentioned to laurent that it is very important in these kinds of

high-stakes situations to make sure that the intelligence is right. and we wanted all three agencies, the french, the brits, and the americans to have thoroughly scrubbed this and to make sure that we were absolutely confident about the situation there. we are. and now it's up to iran to respond. okay? thank you very much, everybody. i hope you enjoyed pittsburgh. thank you. >> and that was president obama wrapping up the g-20 meeting in pittsburgh. of course the centerpiece of g-20, economic stimulus programs around the world. bank compensation. but as you can see there from the q and a, the developments out of iran this morning are certainly taking center stage. obama saying that iran is on notice, that they must come clean on their nuclear program by october 1st, which was that prearranged meeting with some of the u.n. inspectors as well as

some diplomats. they're going to head to iran and inspect there. but of course they came out with this letter indicating that they do have a program, a facility under way. joe, the big question here is the oil trade. we didn't see too much of a reaction today. but we do have some saber rattling coming out of this g-20 meeting by the end of the day. so what do you think the reaction would be if you don't have an oil trade right now? >> short term oil had every reason today to move significantly higher. the dollar was weaker. goldman sachs came out, they reiterated the call for $85 oil. and then you had the conversation that's been going on this morning about the iranian situation. when you look right now at the sc situation, it is all about israel. and i did not hear very much talked about with president obama regarding what is israel really thinking right now. oil, if there is a crisis in the middle east, it is clearly susceptible to a super spike. and we all need to keep that in mind. it's one of the reasons why i don't believe in advocating right now a short position in oil. the trade in oil right now may just be no trade, but you have

to be watchful of what the intentions of the israelis are. that is what this entire situation -- >> so you wouldn't recommend a short position -- you wouldn't recommend a long position either based on these developments? >> i think the trade right now in the energy space is clearly natural gas. you can even step into some of the refiners, some of the oil service names, but i wouldn't step out with something directly related to the futures market, being the uso, just on the premise of something happening in iran. right now technically oil looks a little bit broken. >> okay. got to take a break right now. lots more "fast money" straight ahead. ♪ so blessed with inspiration ♪ ♪ i don't know much ♪ but i know i love you ♪ and that may be ♪ all i need ♪ to know (announcer) customers love ge aircraft engines almost as much as we love making them. innovation today for america's tomorrow.

ok ! ok.

whoooa, heyyy ! see, the terms require that you keep the bike within this pre-determined space. if you want to take the bike out, i'm going to have to charge you a penalty. i can't really ride in this little space. you can't ride very far. even kids know an offer shouldn't come ha, ha, ha... with ridiculous conditions. why don't banks ? at ally bank our 9-month no penalty cd gives you a great rate with no fees for early withdrawal. it's just the right thing to do.

welcome back to "fast money." it is time now for some chartology. let's go to the chart center back at englewood cliffs. cnbc headquarters. take a look at what the sell-off means for the market. greg troccoli of opalesque is there. in front of that magical chart. greg, what do you see? >> well, based on -- you guys mentioned it at the beginning of the show. we've been talking about it for the last couple of days. based on the q reversal on wednesday, which meant that the market made a new high, the index, december s&p index made a new high, and then it closed below tuesday's low. based on that, i put out an official sell signal to my

subscribers to sell into the market on thursday morning on the opening. i went short at around 10:59. that was around the opening bell. i had a stop in above that high, which was just above 1,075 on wednesday. based on today's price action, i'm actually lowering it down to around 1,062. so i have really defined risk here, only about three points. and let's -- again, we have a solid up trend. we have a 21-day moving average line. that still remains absolutely positively sloped. but just based on that key reversal, i'll take a short position here, and i'm only taking three points of risk. >> more broadly speaking, greg, a lot of analysts out there are making a lot about being 20% above the 200-day moving average and what this pullback means. what's your interpretation? i've heard lots of different things saying if we're above the moving average by that much then it's a short-term correction. what's your take? >> i would agree. you certainly run that risk, melissa. and we talked about that a week ago. and again, you know, let's face it, october is not very kind to the equity markets. i mean, and history could repeat itself.

but again, even a 20% correction i think is healthy. i think we got a little bit ahead of ourselves. >> let's move on to goldman sachs, greg. we saw a major reversal today, below 180. what do you see for that stock? >> well, melissa, goldman started the rally and really led the market. it was trading 53 in november. it never looked back, never made a new low when the market did back in march. it really has led the market. it went from 53 up to 185. the moving average line is down around 165. think, again, the broad market has to correct because i think goldman is acting in unison with the broad market. if the broad market continues to correct over the next week, couple of weeks, goldman will come down to 165 at minimum. so for me i can't recommend buying goldman up in this area since i'm already short the broad market. i'm looking for goldman to pull back. >> greg, it's grasso. i know that in october it's usually doom and gloom. my question is if we go out to november and december where do you see this market trading at? >> i heard you say at the beginning of the program, you could still look for 1,200 -- >> i can look for 1,121

fibonacci only because you have terranova, adami and grasso. so i've got to throw in another vowel there. >> well, 1,121 is that 50% retracement. i think we came so close to it now that if we start to fail over the next few weeks and you dip down 20% the market could get a little skittish trying to buy into the end of the year. i wouldn't be so confident on that. >> all right, greg, always nice to see you. have a great weekend. >> bye, guys. >> stay tuned. lots more "fast money" after this quick break.

welcome back. let's get to the stocks that were making extreme news this week. time for the weekly edition of "pops and drops." we kick it off with a pop. 10% was the move on the week. karen. >> it is a big move. but you know what, this is just -- it's just totally based on -- i don't know what. maybe short interest. nothing fundamental here. i would stay away from the name altogether. >> got a drop here for freeport-mcmoran on the week it was down 4%. joe. >> copper inventories are clearly building. freeport-mcmoran's a stock, technically it has to break below 66, but a lot of people are using freeport-mcmoran to get exposure to gold. i wouldn't necessarily sell this sort here. >> we've got a pop here for general mills. gis is up 5% this week. steve. >> my wife has a gluten allergy. i don't see any big makers of

cereals that have any exposure to this. general mills does. i'd be a buyer. i think going into the next couple years you're going to see it be more of a presence. >> drop for dell on the week down 8%. guy. >> integrate perot systems, that's going to take a while. i think dell trades down to 14.25. you can buy it there. >> we've got a drop here for the washington nationals. the nation's capital's baseball team recording its 100th loss this season, losing to the l.a. dodgers last night 7-6. this makes the nationals the first national league franchise since the '70s to post trim-digit losses for the second year in a row. >> they don't do anything good in washington. >> guy. >> not true. i went to school in washington. big d.c. fan. georgetown '86, baby. ? a long time ago. >> 3.9 average gpa. giddy-up. >> drop here for moody's. down 20% this week. >> not a good week for moody and

is one has to wonder what is left of their franchise if they don't have any credibility, people don't think they need the rating what do you get when you buy moody's. i wouldn't buy it. >> pop for natural gas, up 5% on this week, joe. >> absolutely. natural gas technically great rebound. as of 2:30 on this coming monday becomes a $5 commodity versus a $4 commodity. >> united health was down 11% on the week. steve? >> can anyone tell me that we're not going to reform health care in any way, shape, or form? no. so i'd stay away from the space. >> drop for a & f, abercrombie & fitch down 8% this week. >> the cute girl on your left told to you short that one, and it's going to go lower than this. you know i i just starting to go down. this one trades for 28 1/2 i think. >> the cute one on the left. >> cute girl, which is a little bit not respectful. >> i've been called a lot worse. i'll take it. >> we've got a pop here for guinness. you know, the beer. >> ah. >> 250 years ago this dark irish

brew was first brewed and drinkers worldwide are lifting their mugs in celebration. last night in ireland they celebrated the 250th. the singer tom jones and ronan keating. celebrations are being held throughout europe, asia, and africa as well. >> love tom jones. >> who's tom -- >> oh, yeah, love him. >> yo don't you belt out your -- >> oh, "it's not unusual." "delilah." >> sing a little. >> there's the reason. >> click on, baby. let's head to our prop desk right noup in fact the biggest week for ipos in 18 months and everything from a battery maker to online vitamin retailers hitting the tape. what could this renewed surge in offerings mean for bank names? and are any of these rookies worth buying? certainly the one that really grabs attention this week was a-1 the battery maker. >> i know. great space. you know, all the rice buzz words. but in terms of the valuation, it's obscene. and we haven't seen valuations like these since the start of the internet era. so this kind of name, could it

go higher? absolutely. but i couldn't touch it here. >> any other names in terms of the ipo -- >> it's nice the calendar's back. that's a great sign. great sign for the bank. it's the start of something, i believe. i think the calendar's looking a lot better going forward. to me, though, i keep going back to two names, lazard and green hill. green hill big short interest i still think it trades higher from here. >> that chart you are seeing up there, which you saw up there, showing the number of deals and the value of deals so far this year. this is as of 9-24. u.s. versus asia. asia actually, timmy's not here, but timmy, asian ipo $8.2 billion in offerings this year. u.s. 3.6. they're also getting profits from the secondary offerings as well. steve grasso, which names do you like based on that? the trade off the trade. >> i will tell you in the reit space there's a lot of these hybrid reits. i know karen has been in s.l. green. i don't know what your last

position there is. >> flat. >> select medical holdings, that cam out today, which is a weird reit, but i think what they're doing is raising money in an environment that it's a lot easier to raise money in. i would expose myself there. >> i would regret saying that. unbelievable. i like what guy said. i think this is phenomenal for the credit markets, phenomenal for the equities markets, and also, let's not lose the revenue contribution that names like morgan stanley, goldman sachs, and jpmorgan are going to get participating in these deals. that space is consolidated. these are the three leading players right now. >> our time is winding down so, it is time now for the "final trade." governator, kick it off for us. >> ge. i think with this administration they're poised to make a lot of money on green jobs, on alternative energy. i'm going to say ge going forward. people got too focused on ge capital. >> guy. >> i think rimm will print 65. i think you own it there. >> karen. >> target. i'd be long. >> joe. >> abbott labs looks to be breaking out. >> all right.

i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. catch the instant replay of "fast" at 8:00 p.m. followed by "options action." have a great weekend. >> announcer: monday, the fastest team in town says relax. the negotiator's bringing buy and hold back with some picks for "slow money." and kick off earn wgz a hot sports stock. "fast money." 5:00 p.m. eastern.

t. oh please. you got the presentation? oh yeah right here. let me stow that for you, sir. thank you. you know, just to be safe i used fedex office print online. oh you did? yeah -- they printed and bound 20 copies of the presentation, shipped it to portland, they're gonna be there waiting for us. that's a good idea. yeah. you have a nice flight. thank you. (announcer) print online...you upload your document -- we'll take care of the rest.

i'm jim cramer, and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game. >> firms are going to go out of business and he's nuts. they're nuts! they know nothing! >> i always like to say there's a bull market somewhere -- >> "mad money." you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just glad this bad week's over. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you. so call me at 1-800-742-cnbc. the game plan for next week. it's all about jobs. sure, we've got stocks here, but the main thing is jobs. and then jobs. and also jobs. and that's on friday, october 2nd. that will be a gigantic day. that's the big labor department

jobs day. that's when we find out how many people lost their job last month. you know, jobs are so important it's the second most important thing that will happen next week is jobless claims for the week. on thursday. jobs and jobs. everything has become hostage to jobs and jobless claims. home, retail sales, credit card losses, auto sales. it's all about jobs. and without some sign that things are going to get better or that perhaps even congress cares about something besides health care, we're going to say defensive all week. we're going to continue to buy the companies that make anything you can eat, drink, medicate with, or legally smoke. my whole career at various times has always been one number that everybody's focused on. hard to believe that at one point it was the baker hughes rig count that came every week. came out today. no one looked at it. and another one was the money supply. when was the last time you heard anyone talk about the number supply? that number was so important we used to huddle arnd